Today's mailbag digs into what a Paul Skenes extension could look like, whether the Yankees will extend Juan Soto, how the Mets move forward, who the White Sox should trade, and much more. Let's get to it!
Scott asks:
If you’re Paul Skenes, what do the Pirates need to offer to convince you to sign an extension?
I happened to catch Skenes' Wrigley Field start in-person with my kids, and it was awesome. There is a type of guy who replies to any Paul Skenes accomplishment with "When's the Tommy John scheduled?", and I really don't want to align with those guys. He's healthy and incredible right now - just enjoy it without the doomsaying.
That said, there should be an army of nerds at Paul Skenes' agency doing pitcher actuarial type stuff in the event the Pirates come with an extension offer or already have. And the basic fact is that a list of the game's hardest-throwing starting pitchers doubles as a graveyard of injuries.
So OK, Skenes' injury risk is high simply because he's a starting pitcher, and it's even higher because he's the hardest-throwing starting pitcher in baseball. That should be built into any contract offer. But while injuries may be up, his risk is not all that different from a pitcher five years ago.
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Considering Skenes has only made two starts and is 6 years away from free agency, if I were the Pirates, I would wait for at least one year before even contemplating a long term deal
Anything can happen including TJ surgery or worse, a career ending injury
“6 years away from free agency”…Everytime a 1st year player has a good pitching outing or hits a homerun the media, including this site, starts pushing the team to “extend him”. I’m convinced it’s a “fake news”, disingenuous argument because why would you extend the most risky position(pitcher)when you already control his rights for 6 more years?…Except in very exceptional cases, this is an argument designed to have teams get overextended with bad contracts, file bankruptcy and possibly cease to exist in their present form. The ones pushing this(establishment media & even the baseball media)nonsense are no friends of MLB in my opinion.
I don’t see anything in Tim’s response that suggests he’s pushing the Pirates to extend him. He’s just answering someone’s question. It’s more an interesting thought exercise IMO
Nolan Ryan never had TJ and he threw harder than Skenes. You never know.
Neither did Bob Gibson or Tom Seaver, other prominent pitchers of that generation. It’s different with today’s flame throwers though I don’t know why
He also had a mean upper cut, just ask Robin Ventura
If I was Skenes I would be willing to give up one year of free agency to reach a deal that guarantees the years before that. Insurance against a career ending injury, The same for every other pitcher out there.
I can never find good information on this, but I am curious how much an insurance policy can cover for athletes, and at what cost.
If it’s just injury Skenes wants to protect against, my guess is he could just insure against it.
Insurance is a business and businesses need to make money to exist. Theoretically if the team and player could agree on a reasonable contract that would make more sense because they wouldn’t have to pay for the third party to be involved.
According to an article in Sports Illustrated, at some point, Skenes wants to serve in the military. If he pitches for 15 years for example, it’s unlikely that the military will allow him to serve, as he would be 36.
When I served, the military refused to allow anyone over 35 to begin serving.
So my guess, he will pitch for ten years or less in order to fulfill his dream of serving his country
I’m not paying to read this stuff . That’s why you these ads
“That’s why you these ads”
I’m glad I’m not paying anything either to read your in depth posts
“Is there any room left in the calendar to spread out the season, to maybe reduce pitcher workloads?” – the season is too long already. Baseball is king during the summer; keep it there.