The Astros are in danger of missing the postseason for the first time in eight years. Houston has not only made the playoffs in each year since 2016, they’ve won at least one round in every season and picked up a pair of World Series. This year’s squad is seven games under .500 halfway through June, carrying a 31-38 record that has them above only the Angels, A’s and White Sox in the American League.
Houston has a franchise-high payroll and an aging core that has had ample success. They’re uninterested in giving up on 2024. General manager Dana Brown said at the start of the month that he “(didn’t) see any scenario” where the team sells. Brown indicated he expected to add at the deadline despite their current place in the standings. To that end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the team would like to add two starting pitchers before the deadline.
The rotation has been arguably the team’s biggest weakness, so it’s a straightforward target. They’ve been hit hard by injuries that have exposed a lack of upper minors depth. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia have yet to make their season debuts after undergoing arm surgeries in 2023. The Astros lost Cristian Javier and José Urquidy to Tommy John surgeries within the past couple weeks. Those procedures were announced after Brown declared that he couldn’t envision selling, but both pitchers were headed for testing at the time. The GM presumably knew that season-ending surgery was at least a realistic possibility.
That leaves Houston with a rotation of Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti. Valdez and Verlander are assured of season-long rotation spots so long as they’re healthy. Hunter Brown has righted the ship after a terrible April with a 3.05 ERA and a 27.4% strikeout rate over his past seven starts. Blanco has a 2.67 ERA while punching out nearly 24% of opponents in 12 outings.
It’s a reasonable front four, particularly if Brown continues pitching like an upper mid-rotation arm. The depth remains perilously thin. Arrighetti has had an up-and-down rookie campaign, allowing 5.33 earned runs per nine over his first 11 MLB starts. His run prevention has improved over the past month. Arrighetti has allowed three or fewer runs in five of his last six outings. He hasn’t been especially efficient, though, issuing multiple walks in all 11 appearances. The 24-year-old has shown the stuff to miss bats against big league hitters, yet his debut season hasn’t been seamless.
Even if Houston isn’t actively looking to nudge Arrighetti from the starting five, they’d be ill-prepared to handle any other injuries. J.P. France is on the minor league injured list. Eric Lauer has allowed 14 runs in 15 Triple-A innings since signing a minor league deal. Arrighetti was the only upper minors pitching prospect whom most evaluators regarded highly in a thin farm system. Garcia and McCullers could return around the trade deadline. There’s some level of risk with both pitchers finishing rehabs from lengthy absences — particularly McCullers, who has an extended injury history.
It’s not clear how highly the Astros might aim in their search for starting pitching. It’s unlikely they’ll land multiple mid-rotation or better arms, particularly without a ton of top talent to shop from the farm system (and a probable need to acquire first base help). Landing one mid-rotation starter and an innings-eating depth arm could be attainable. It’s debatable whether the Astros should subtract from their minor league pipeline to upgrade the 2024 roster — MLBTR’s Steve Adams argued for Houston to be more amenable to dealing away veterans in a piece for Front Office subscribers this evening — but the front office is clearly still looking for short-term help.
Garrett Crochet could be the prize of this summer’s rotation trade market. The White Sox would need to be blown away to deal him with two more seasons of club control. They’re likelier to trade Erick Fedde, who is under contract through 2025. The Marlins will probably move Jesús Luzardo and could trade one of Trevor Rogers or Braxton Garrett. The likes of Zach Eflin, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Austin Gomber and Cal Quantrill could also come available closer to the deadline.
alpha-17
With what prospects? Aren’t they second to last worse farm system
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
They could trade their top prospect for something
tedtheodorelogan
They can have Blake Snell and 10 million bucks for their very worst prospect.
DarkSide830
Denial.
unpaidobserver
This but also ticket sales. It’s only June and you have to say you tried before July rolls around you face facts.
BKS1110
Bauer out there practically for free but lets deal some of our only decent prospects left for stop-gap starters, because that will surely help our choke-in-the-clutch offense and bullpen that can’t hold a lead.
Sports dynasties are like actual dynasties; they get complacent and prideful and forget how they got on top in the first place, then crumble from within.
MR. Q
Iirc Bauer choose to stay in Mexico this season
Astros_fan_in_Aus
Bauer is a better pitcher than all those named as possible trades in this article. It makes no sense to ignore him.
texgal01
Bauer will never be an option to Houston. Let him stay in Mexico out of MLB period.
I Believe We Can Win
Didn’t Houston once take a chance on Roberto Osuna who was accused of domestic violence but had charges dropped or withdrawn?
If Houston can give Osuna a chance why not Trevor Bauer? Its become public record Lindsey Hill was lying and the other accuser in ARZ was arrested and is facing felony charges for lying with intent to extort Bauer.
Houston should sign Bauer.
Don’t get me wrong Bauer is a type a hole personality but legally speaking he’s been the victim twice in extortion schemes.
brodie-bruce
@ i believe
As much as I hate saying this I agree with you Trevor is only guilty of choosing the wrong date a being a complete bell end. Unfortunately for Trevor the court of opinions has labeled Trevor as a dv person.
Fever Pitch Guy
Believe – Based on Bauer’s quote, I don’t think it would be a good match with Houston:
“I’m not going to let them forget the fact they are hypocrites, they are cheaters, they have stolen from a lot of other people and the game itself.”
brodie-bruce
@fpg
At this point is Trevor even in a position to pick a mlb team right now, I bet if hou is desperate enough for a quality arm they’ll sign him
Deleted Userrrr
@taxgal01 Yes he is an option. Just because they don’t choose that option doesn’t make him not an option.
Memphis Kong
Why? He has been proven to be innocent and in fact one of his accusers is in jail. He’s there for league minimum.
Murray Rothbard
It’s because Bauer spilled the beans on the sticky stuff. Manfred is never letting Trevor in the majors. It has nothing to do with what any one team thinks.
Rsox
Bauer has made many comments about the trash cans, doesn’t particularly get along well with Alex Bregman and had an incident where he was harrasing a local girl online. Definitely not what they need to right the ship
Deleted Userrrr
Who is available for the league minimum right now that wouldn’t cost a single prospect or draft pick who is as good or better than Bauer? Be as specific as possible.
Rsox
You know as well as i that there are no starters available for minimum wage that won’t cost some kind of return. However, the “as good or better than Bauer” part is subjective as Bauer literally plays in a league full of washed up Major Leaguers/washed out Minor Leaguers. He’s facing plenty of Juan’s but none of them Soto…
Deleted Userrrr
Bauer is better than every team’s fourth starter. I get that his haters get all giddy on the rare occasion that he has a bad start (cuz that NEVER happens, even to elite MLB starters lol) but sometimes we just have to face reality.
TickingTurtle
Crane missed opportunities in the offseason.
texgal01
With Dana as a GM and Bagwell whispering in his ear on what to do. They relied too much on status quote. Do not add to what does not need fixing. Well we have France in Minors and maybe out for season. Javier and Urquidy out for season. Talk too Urquidy may not be an Astro come off season. Talk too of trading Meyers and Loperfido taking his place. Yes team needs pitching and first base. Who we get there whether Josh Bell or Christian Walker, doubt get Alonso. Third base May soon be a need and right field. Been hearing on a top pitching prospect moving up fast. Leon in minors an outfielder, Wagner and others like Melton and Bryce Matthews I think. Some names in minor leagues now would not want to lose. Not going to be easy to get something and not give up a prospect and deplete our farm completely. How long will Crane want to keep team if goes down to those 200 loss teams again. Think he owned team then or purchased then. I dread what team will look like next season from front office and on field management like Espada and such.
C Yards Jeff
Due for a reset. Two options. Buy it like the Yanks, Dodgers, Phillies, Mets do. Or tear it down like Houston did with Luhnow. One glaring issue, I believe, is owner is too involved with daily on field decision making. He’s gotta stop that or sell the team.
Fever Pitch Guy
Jeff – What you see as a fault, others see as a quality.
I’d much rather have an owner who is engaged in his team, who desperately wants to win every year. My team has the exact opposite type of owner, a guy who doesn’t care about winning and has been non-existent for several years.
Think about it, who is the one guy who has been the constant during the past 7 years of ALCS appearances.
C Yards Jeff
FPG – sorry to hear of your ownership model. Tough stuff. A dormant owner is the worst for sure. Ugh.
And I fully support an active owner but to an extent. I definitely dig what’s going on in places like Atlanta and LAD and Philly. But not so much with teams like the Mets and Angels. I think the difference between a good active owner and a bad one, is the good one stays out of the on field decision making. IE. they put full trust in their baseball people to do that. I think Crane, over time, has gotten to involved with team make up.
Fever Pitch Guy
Jeff – Thanks, yes these are dark days for Sox fans. At least I have great memories. Like they say, better to have loved and lost than never loved at all.
I get what you’re saying, if an owner is gonna micro-manage it helps if he’s somewhat competent. And it’s not always meddling, ownership has to approve all major transactions. It was Bloom’s idea to trade Mookie, but John Henry ultimately signed off on it.
I really like the new Orioles owner, he’s not just willing to spend but also passionate and knowledgeable about his team. Throwing dozens of hats to the crowd the other day was very cool.
I’m really happy for you and the direction your team is going in. If the Jays ever return to big spending and the Rays start spending after moving into a new stadium, it is gonna be a really tough division for the Red Sox to compete in.
unpaidobserver
They’ll always have the glory years.
unpaidobserver
And the cheating.
Hawkeye75
Dude that was part of one year and they had stopped by the time the playoffs came around as it wasn’t really helping—as they hit better and won more ON THE ROAD. They won more playoff games on the road and won the series on the road. As well…they weren’t the only team doing it–just the one that was punished as an example. The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Rangers and more were ALL doing THE SAME THING.
Astros_fan_in_Aus
Hawkeye, those are facts that the sideline wankers like to ignore.
Oldguy58
They were punished? They were only sorry they got caught
User 4245925809
— The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Rangers and more were ALL doing THE SAME THING.—
Have been generally defending vs all the NY posters constantly complaining about the trash can bashing, especially when NY themselves had several ped loaded lineups earlier this century and was complete silence.
However, this is beyond the pale now to throw other teams under same brush, just because 1 team was flagrantly caught. U do realize opposing teams were using various means by catchers thens to try and disquise signals from catcher to pitcher at Houston it was so flagrant signals were being stolen? I don’t remember any other time/place ever this being done.
misdirection like this, after the fact when a team was caught so badly is like lying politicians spinning away with the double talk.. Wouldn’t be 1 perhaps?
Fever Pitch Guy
Hawk – I moved on long ago and therefore never bring this stuff up, but you must know what you just wrote is 100% crap. Lying about something that can be easily proven false ain’t very smart. Their 2017 postseason home numbers were much much better across the board than their road numbers.
espn.com/mlb/team/splits/_/name/hou/season/2017/se…
I hope you man up and apologize.
Fever Pitch Guy
Aus – You just made an Aus of yourself.
espn.com/mlb/team/splits/_/name/hou/season/2017/se…
astros_fan_84
So badly caught? Hate to tell you this, but it took 3 years to uncover. Considering how many people knew, both on and off the team, this is incredible that it stayed quiet so long.
Fever Pitch Guy
John – Well said. These two liars are right in line with the worst of the worst, especially with the inflated postseason home numbers being common knowledge. They are probably holocaust and moon landing and Sandy Hook deniers as well.
Go Go Power Rangers
Idk where you got that list but there’s a difference between allegations and proof.
vtadave
Yeah Game 5 of the 2017 World Series was totally legit. Just ask Kershaw.
Fever Pitch Guy
The only Dodgers pitcher that didn’t get hit hard in the WS while playing in Houston was Alex Wood, and that’s because he was smart enough to use multiple signs all the time.
Chris Sale also had plenty to be ticked off about after the cheating in Game 1 of the ALDS that year.
❤️ MuteButton
This season is not likely to pan out. The wise move would be to save your resources, regroup for next season and get rid of your number one detractor – Jose Abreu.
When you continually allow this type of performance to remain on the roster it sends the message to the rest of the team that failing is acceptable.
Also, we have to come to terms with the fact that Joe Espada experiment has failed.
Mr_KLC
With all of the injuries to starting pitching this year, the baseball gods are practically yelling at the Astros to retool this year. Trade Bregman. Get what you can for Pressly and McCormick. Live to fight another day.
Baseball Babe
I hear Patrick Corbin is available.
Simm
My guess is the Astros hold for another month and see if they get back in it. There are only 4 teams in the league right now that are clear sellers. 2 of those 4 are the angles and the Rockies who for some reason seem to resist selling and blowing it up.
In the next month another 6-8 teams will have to make some tough decisions. If you are one of the seller teams it might be wise to try and get the most you can now while there isn’t all that much competition in the selling market. By the deadline we could see 10-12 teams in the selling market.
Also listing crochet as a guy that would take a ton to get. While listing luzardo as a guy who will be traded doesn’t make a lot of sense. The market for Luzardo is likely as strong if not stronger than the market for crochet. Same amount of control and Luzardo isn’t going to on some pitch limit that crochet is likely to be on.
Fever Pitch Guy
Simm – Only 4 teams?
Just curious, which of the Marlins-Athletics-ChiSox do you consider to still be a contender?
Simm
None, make it 5. I didn’t look it up before posting.
letitbelowenstein
Quantrill? Pivetta?
Old York
I read that Bauer showcased for Houston recently.
scottn59c
Why don’t they just go back to tanking for the next decade. Or banging trashcans. if that doesn’t work.
Atloriolesfan
If I were a GM, I’d take Dana Brown at his word and say he absolutely will chase starters in the trade market for 2024, whether it makes sense or not. Who do they have that you’d want? Nothing in the minors anyone would trade much for.
As an Os fan, I love the Astros desperation. It has already delivered McDermott and Johnson for a couple of months of Trey Mancini .600 OPS.
When Dean Kremer comes off the IL in a week or so, the Os have 7 usable starters. So how about Kremer for Bryan Abreau and someone else’s prospect capital. 3 team like the Mancini deal. See if KC will take McCormick or Meyers for a CB pick. If you prefer Irvin to Kremer, fine.
mlbnyyfan
IMO the cheaters should be sellers and not buyers at the trade deadline. Astros are an old aging team. Sell some players and restock the farm.
dano62
I’m sure they can net Gibson or Blackburn (when he gets off the IL) for less than Spaghetti…
LFGMets (Metsin7) #ConsistentlyBannedBaseballExpert
All the Astros have to do is fire the managee and they’ll start winning games. Dusty Baker would have this team in first place right now. A lot of people think a different manager is the difference between 3 to 4 wins in a season. I highly disagree. If you put the Astros manager on the Rays, the Rays record becomes as bad as the WhiteSox this year. Clueless fans
Dutch
That would be brutal for their future. The farm is in trouble as is.
Rsox
The Astros have 59 games renaining against teams that are either barely over .500 (one or two games) or have losing records so they are definitely in a position to make a run at a Wild Card spot
Butter Biscuits
Dodgers have plenty of starting pitching available for Kyle tucker