Alec Bohm has turned into an above-average-ML defensive 3B;
and there is no way he runs Harper off of 1B (Bohm has also
turned into a very reliable #4 hitter and is protecting Harper in
the lineup).
Believe the Phillies are very happy with him @ 3bB.
Played the sport and have been watching since 1956.
Watch at least parts of 300-400 games a year on MLB.TV. The people I trust most in making comments are the broadcasters that are objective – especially those that played the game professionally.
My reason for watching is to see which teams win, and which players contribute to it. Watching the games it becomes clear those that have high Baseball IQ’s and are helping their teams win. Unfortunately statistics don’t show that at all. Many years ago I tallied up players individual WAR numbers for each team (players that had played on multiple teams had WAR numbers for each team they played with). As I suspected, the stats didn’t correlate to the position the teams finished for their division that year.
But I understand the obsession with Rotisserie League, and the fact that many people only care about that. I wish you the best of fortune with your team this year.
The wonderful think about MLB is that people can follow it many ways and enjoy it. I understand that I’m in the minority, but I’m not alone.
“Many years ago I tallied up players individual WAR numbers for each team (players that had played on multiple teams had WAR numbers for each team they played with). As I suspected, the stats didn’t correlate to the position the teams finished for their division that year.”
WAR correlates very well with actual wins
“For 2009, the correlation between a team’s projected record based on their WAR total and their actual record was .83.”
Why is your claim that “I tallied up players individual WAR numbers for each team (players that had played on multiple teams had WAR numbers for each team they played with). As I suspected, the stats didn’t correlate to the position the teams finished for their division that year.”
So different from these repeatable tests done by respected baseball websites?
““For 2009, the correlation between a team’s projected record based on their WAR total and their actual record was .83.”
blogs.fangraphs.com/war-it-works/
“As you can see, however, team wins and WAR wins are strongly correlated (R-squared value of 0.86).”
A.J. Preller is in his 1th year running the Padres. For some reason, the national baseball media fawns over his prospects. It seems every year they anoint one or two as untouchable as those players appear to be superstars in the making.
Some of those players were in fact traded. I can’t think of a one that reached anything resembling superstar status. As for youngsters the Padres kept – I can’t name one that has been a true star for them. The big names they’ve had on their rosters were acquired in trade by the Padres taking on their salaries and packaging up some seemingly untouchable prospects such as Mr. Hassell III.
Am not saying that the Padres didn’t have youngsters in their system that developed into good ML players. But from all the clamor I read on MLBTR (and elsewhere) every year about their top prospects, one would think that after 11 years there would be some MVP’s or future HOF’s there.
If I read that one guys farm system is churning out can’t-miss / top-flight prospects for 11 years, shouldn’t some of them have become elite players?
And you know what – all those reviews quoted numerous statistics.
The American Judicial system was supposed to be based on ‘Reasonableness”. As a consumer of analysis if I’m reading reviews of prospects from multiple MLB organizations – and one is being signaled out year-after-year for having slews of top prospects – it seems reasonable that some of those prospects would matriculate to become top-tier players. No? I mean, didn’t they have the statistics when doing the analysis?
Think maybe that’s why I’ve been reading computer-generated predications each Spring for over 3 decades and at least 95% of the time they’re totally off-base? Perhaps that’s why un-with-it dinosaurs like me enjoy watching the games.
Max Fried, Trea Turner, James Wood, Andres Munoz, C.J. Abrams were all Padre prospects traded that are either current stars or on their way to be one.
If you go a tier lower than that there are tons of former Padres prospects, most of which were homegrown who are or were valuable big leaguers: David Bednar, Emmanuel Classe, Josh Naylor, Ty France, Mackenzie Gore, etc. Not to mention excellent big leaguers like Anthony Rizzo, Yasmani Grandal, & Zach Eflin. Owen Cassie is one of the Cubs top prospects and has 40 HR pop.
Sure none of those players are surefire HOF’s but each one of those guys were either prospects or had less than 1 year of service time when traded and I bet there are some big names I’m missing as well as a good 15 or 20 productive big leaguers or minor league assets.
I feel like the number of former Padre farmhands on other teams speaks highly oh the Padres ability to develop prospects and both good and bad from a Padre fan POV, it seems like their success rate is higher than a typical prospect. That 2021 draft while possibly nabbing the two best players in Merrill and Wood despite picking 26th or later was a real coup.
It’s all those success stories that get teams more than willing to deal with Preller. He’s not selling chocolate covered turds and has shown he’s more willing to give up top prospects than any one else.
@padrepapi The Padres have no ability to develop prospects. Trading prospects at the upper levels of the minors or shortly after they make their MLB debuts is affirmatively NOT development.
My “research” can’t be found. I sure as heck have not been storing data from MLB projection sites each year for decades. That’s up your alley – I’m a sports fan. If you want to pay me and pay for equipment I’ll start on it next Spring.
It’s kind of like what Auditors do in corporations – they go over the plans the executives agreed to, and after a period of time determine what was and wasn’t successful in order to provide accountability.
M us be great to make projections and not be held to them. Sort of like working in the government….or giving investment advice.
–
I’ll not only stop playing…..I’m leaving…..to find people that actually like to watch baseball games and talk about it…..as opposed to obsessing over spreadsheets (and I’m a retired computer professional). People that see the sport as just that – players competing with one another trying to help their team win each game – not discussing who can be traded for who, how much money they should be paid, who has better statistics, etc. – which has little at all to do with being a sports fan. It’s as if the reason we should discuss musicians is by looking at a breakdown of how many notes they play in a specified period of time compared to other musicians, and how much money they’re paid per performance.
–
Right side of the brain, left side of the brain. You want to be a bean counter – I want to watch and appreciate an art form. Best of luck to you – keeping count of how other humans do their jobs and how they’d paid for it. Whew….what a great way to spend ones limited time on earth.
“Best of luck to you – keeping count of how other humans do their jobs”
Aren’t you the one here who is talking about comparing 3 decades of preseason predications to end of season results and tallied up team WAR to compare it to record? And then you’re saying that a GM should lose his job because his farm system hasn’t produced an MVP or HOF caliber player? It seems like actually it is you who is the one here wasting their time keeping count of how other humans do their jobs.
Of course it can’t. What a joke you are. Nice you put “research” in quotes, though. We both know you didn’t actually do it
“M us be great to make projections and not be held to them. ”
Except that’s not what happens
“The projection systems all did pretty well and, as usual, are relatively close together. ZiPS takes home the crown with the lowest mean absolute error. While Marcel comes in last, the result demonstrates Marcel’s original intended purpose; it shows us that a simple projection system will get us most of the way there in the aggregate.”
“Over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.7 correct teams when looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines. I’m always tinkering with methodology, but most of the low-hanging fruit in predicting how teams will perform has already been harvested. With one major exception, most of ZiPS’ problems now are about accuracy rather than bias. ZiPS’ year-to-year misses for teams are uncorrelated, with an r-squared of one year’s miss to the next of 0.000562”
”
In the tests that follow, the metric of choice is the absolute error between the forecast and the actual, weighted by the actual number of plate appearances (PA). No player results has been discarded”
It’s almost like you are just talking out of your behind
“I’m leaving…..to find people that actually like to watch baseball games and talk about it…..as opposed to obsessing over spreadsheets”
Aren’t, aren’t, aren’t you that one who just said
“Many years ago I tallied up players individual WAR numbers for each team (players that had played on multiple teams had WAR numbers for each team they played with). As I suspected, the stats didn’t correlate to the position the teams finished for their division that year.”
Could you please address my comment about the correlation between WAR and actual team wins before you disappear?
“The wonderful think about MLB is that people can follow it many ways and enjoy it. ”
“You want to be a bean counter – I want to watch and appreciate an art form. Best of luck to you – keeping count of how other humans do their jobs and how they’d paid for it. Whew….what a great way to spend ones limited time on earth.”
What happened between these two comments?
What bee got in your bonnet?
For the record, I was at that recent bee game. Waited out the entire delay and stayed through the extra inning. I enjoyed watching the game – I always do. I also enjoyed understanding the “bean counting” of it. Sorry that you aren’t capable of both. Now, if you’re just not interested in both aspects, that’s fine. Enjoy it how you want. But get out of here if you think your way of enjoying the game is right and other people’s is wrong – that’s just pathetic and sad
The Tigers are not trading Skubal. The Tigers are not trading Riley Greene. They might not be a truly competitive team, but they aren’t far off and there’s more farm talent in the pipeline.
Flaherty is for sale though and we are already taking bids.
Alec Bohm has turned into an above-average-ML defensive 3B;
and there is no way he runs Harper off of 1B (Bohm has also
turned into a very reliable #4 hitter and is protecting Harper in
the lineup).
Believe the Phillies are very happy with him @ 3bB.
Bohm has a Defensive Runs Saved of -3 at 3rd base this year. His Outs Above Average is also at -3 for 3rd base.
So no, he’s not an above average 3rd baseman.
Don’t get me wrong, there’s been clear improvement. His defense is much more palatable now.
Sorry Canuckleball;
I watch the games and think defensive statistics are unreliable (and have of over 25 years).
Bohm has played a very good 3B this year. Has made
some very difficult plays look easy.
Samuel
“I watch the games”
Oh. Well then
CBeisbol;
Played the sport and have been watching since 1956.
Watch at least parts of 300-400 games a year on MLB.TV. The people I trust most in making comments are the broadcasters that are objective – especially those that played the game professionally.
My reason for watching is to see which teams win, and which players contribute to it. Watching the games it becomes clear those that have high Baseball IQ’s and are helping their teams win. Unfortunately statistics don’t show that at all. Many years ago I tallied up players individual WAR numbers for each team (players that had played on multiple teams had WAR numbers for each team they played with). As I suspected, the stats didn’t correlate to the position the teams finished for their division that year.
But I understand the obsession with Rotisserie League, and the fact that many people only care about that. I wish you the best of fortune with your team this year.
The wonderful think about MLB is that people can follow it many ways and enjoy it. I understand that I’m in the minority, but I’m not alone.
Samuel
“Played the sport and have been watching since 1956.”
You’re old. Congrats.
” I wish you the best of fortune with your team this year.”
I don’t play. But thanks for the well wishes
Life is not Rotisserie baseball. And Samuel is insufferable.
Samuel
“Many years ago I tallied up players individual WAR numbers for each team (players that had played on multiple teams had WAR numbers for each team they played with). As I suspected, the stats didn’t correlate to the position the teams finished for their division that year.”
WAR correlates very well with actual wins
“For 2009, the correlation between a team’s projected record based on their WAR total and their actual record was .83.”
blogs.fangraphs.com/war-it-works/
“As you can see, however, team wins and WAR wins are strongly correlated (R-squared value of 0.86).”
beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlat…
But, go ahead, show your research.
Don’t think he has any kids, but he did allow his nieces and nephews to pick out a toy not more than $20.
Hey, Samuel
Over here
Don’t forget to address this
Thank you
Re: Samuel
Someone: Player A has a .340 wOBA so far this year (or, if you prefer, a .270 batting average or 56 RBI or a 3.76 FIP)
Samuel: I watch the games and I know that can’t be right
Imagine being like that
Hello Samuel
Are you going to address this?
Why is your claim that “I tallied up players individual WAR numbers for each team (players that had played on multiple teams had WAR numbers for each team they played with). As I suspected, the stats didn’t correlate to the position the teams finished for their division that year.”
So different from these repeatable tests done by respected baseball websites?
““For 2009, the correlation between a team’s projected record based on their WAR total and their actual record was .83.”
blogs.fangraphs.com/war-it-works/
“As you can see, however, team wins and WAR wins are strongly correlated (R-squared value of 0.86).”
beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlat…”
This is your big chance. You can really show how fake WAR is. Shoe that these websites are wrong or lying or that they used faulty methodology.
Or is it your that is wrong or lying or using bad methodology?
You going to put up or shut up?
Re: Robert Hassell III;
A.J. Preller is in his 1th year running the Padres. For some reason, the national baseball media fawns over his prospects. It seems every year they anoint one or two as untouchable as those players appear to be superstars in the making.
Some of those players were in fact traded. I can’t think of a one that reached anything resembling superstar status. As for youngsters the Padres kept – I can’t name one that has been a true star for them. The big names they’ve had on their rosters were acquired in trade by the Padres taking on their salaries and packaging up some seemingly untouchable prospects such as Mr. Hassell III.
Am not saying that the Padres didn’t have youngsters in their system that developed into good ML players. But from all the clamor I read on MLBTR (and elsewhere) every year about their top prospects, one would think that after 11 years there would be some MVP’s or future HOF’s there.
Maybe I missed something.
P.S. Tatis was a White Sox farmhand.
Samuel
“one would think that after 11 years there would be some MVP’s or future HOF’s there.”
If one didn’t understand how unlikely those things were, maybe
Why would they be “unlikely”?
If I read that one guys farm system is churning out can’t-miss / top-flight prospects for 11 years, shouldn’t some of them have become elite players?
And you know what – all those reviews quoted numerous statistics.
The American Judicial system was supposed to be based on ‘Reasonableness”. As a consumer of analysis if I’m reading reviews of prospects from multiple MLB organizations – and one is being signaled out year-after-year for having slews of top prospects – it seems reasonable that some of those prospects would matriculate to become top-tier players. No? I mean, didn’t they have the statistics when doing the analysis?
Think maybe that’s why I’ve been reading computer-generated predications each Spring for over 3 decades and at least 95% of the time they’re totally off-base? Perhaps that’s why un-with-it dinosaurs like me enjoy watching the games.
P.S. Do you know what a cutoff man is and why?
Max Fried, Trea Turner, James Wood, Andres Munoz, C.J. Abrams were all Padre prospects traded that are either current stars or on their way to be one.
If you go a tier lower than that there are tons of former Padres prospects, most of which were homegrown who are or were valuable big leaguers: David Bednar, Emmanuel Classe, Josh Naylor, Ty France, Mackenzie Gore, etc. Not to mention excellent big leaguers like Anthony Rizzo, Yasmani Grandal, & Zach Eflin. Owen Cassie is one of the Cubs top prospects and has 40 HR pop.
Sure none of those players are surefire HOF’s but each one of those guys were either prospects or had less than 1 year of service time when traded and I bet there are some big names I’m missing as well as a good 15 or 20 productive big leaguers or minor league assets.
I feel like the number of former Padre farmhands on other teams speaks highly oh the Padres ability to develop prospects and both good and bad from a Padre fan POV, it seems like their success rate is higher than a typical prospect. That 2021 draft while possibly nabbing the two best players in Merrill and Wood despite picking 26th or later was a real coup.
It’s all those success stories that get teams more than willing to deal with Preller. He’s not selling chocolate covered turds and has shown he’s more willing to give up top prospects than any one else.
@padrepapi The Padres have no ability to develop prospects. Trading prospects at the upper levels of the minors or shortly after they make their MLB debuts is affirmatively NOT development.
Samuel
“Why would they be “unlikely”?”
Because at any given moment there are 780 active players in MLB. Just 2 of them can be MVP in any given season.
The likelihood of any player winning MVP is very small.
“I’ve been reading computer-generated predications each Spring for over 3 decades and at least 95% of the time they’re totally off-base?”
Please cite your research
My “research” can’t be found. I sure as heck have not been storing data from MLB projection sites each year for decades. That’s up your alley – I’m a sports fan. If you want to pay me and pay for equipment I’ll start on it next Spring.
It’s kind of like what Auditors do in corporations – they go over the plans the executives agreed to, and after a period of time determine what was and wasn’t successful in order to provide accountability.
M us be great to make projections and not be held to them. Sort of like working in the government….or giving investment advice.
–
I’ll not only stop playing…..I’m leaving…..to find people that actually like to watch baseball games and talk about it…..as opposed to obsessing over spreadsheets (and I’m a retired computer professional). People that see the sport as just that – players competing with one another trying to help their team win each game – not discussing who can be traded for who, how much money they should be paid, who has better statistics, etc. – which has little at all to do with being a sports fan. It’s as if the reason we should discuss musicians is by looking at a breakdown of how many notes they play in a specified period of time compared to other musicians, and how much money they’re paid per performance.
–
Right side of the brain, left side of the brain. You want to be a bean counter – I want to watch and appreciate an art form. Best of luck to you – keeping count of how other humans do their jobs and how they’d paid for it. Whew….what a great way to spend ones limited time on earth.
“Best of luck to you – keeping count of how other humans do their jobs”
Aren’t you the one here who is talking about comparing 3 decades of preseason predications to end of season results and tallied up team WAR to compare it to record? And then you’re saying that a GM should lose his job because his farm system hasn’t produced an MVP or HOF caliber player? It seems like actually it is you who is the one here wasting their time keeping count of how other humans do their jobs.
Samuel
“My “research” can’t be found”
Of course it can’t. What a joke you are. Nice you put “research” in quotes, though. We both know you didn’t actually do it
“M us be great to make projections and not be held to them. ”
Except that’s not what happens
“The projection systems all did pretty well and, as usual, are relatively close together. ZiPS takes home the crown with the lowest mean absolute error. While Marcel comes in last, the result demonstrates Marcel’s original intended purpose; it shows us that a simple projection system will get us most of the way there in the aggregate.”
tht.fangraphs.com/evaluating-the-2014-projection-s…
“Over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.7 correct teams when looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines. I’m always tinkering with methodology, but most of the low-hanging fruit in predicting how teams will perform has already been harvested. With one major exception, most of ZiPS’ problems now are about accuracy rather than bias. ZiPS’ year-to-year misses for teams are uncorrelated, with an r-squared of one year’s miss to the next of 0.000562”
blogs.fangraphs.com/the-official-and-hopefully-not…
”
In the tests that follow, the metric of choice is the absolute error between the forecast and the actual, weighted by the actual number of plate appearances (PA). No player results has been discarded”
insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/testin…
It’s almost like you are just talking out of your behind
“I’m leaving…..to find people that actually like to watch baseball games and talk about it…..as opposed to obsessing over spreadsheets”
Aren’t, aren’t, aren’t you that one who just said
“Many years ago I tallied up players individual WAR numbers for each team (players that had played on multiple teams had WAR numbers for each team they played with). As I suspected, the stats didn’t correlate to the position the teams finished for their division that year.”
Could you please address my comment about the correlation between WAR and actual team wins before you disappear?
And then, yeah, disappear.
You don’t add anything here
Samuel
“The wonderful think about MLB is that people can follow it many ways and enjoy it. ”
“You want to be a bean counter – I want to watch and appreciate an art form. Best of luck to you – keeping count of how other humans do their jobs and how they’d paid for it. Whew….what a great way to spend ones limited time on earth.”
What happened between these two comments?
What bee got in your bonnet?
For the record, I was at that recent bee game. Waited out the entire delay and stayed through the extra inning. I enjoyed watching the game – I always do. I also enjoyed understanding the “bean counting” of it. Sorry that you aren’t capable of both. Now, if you’re just not interested in both aspects, that’s fine. Enjoy it how you want. But get out of here if you think your way of enjoying the game is right and other people’s is wrong – that’s just pathetic and sad
The Tigers are not trading Skubal. The Tigers are not trading Riley Greene. They might not be a truly competitive team, but they aren’t far off and there’s more farm talent in the pipeline.
Flaherty is for sale though and we are already taking bids.