Craig Breslow Talks Red Sox’s Offseason

Are you taking Fenway and the weak defense into account? Between the two, they add about half a run per game to the pitchers’ tallies.

I also wonder if you have looked around the league? There are just 125 pitchers in the majors with 100+ innings, and the median of those has a 3.80 ERA. So to a first approximation, a #1 or #2 pitcher is better than 3.80 (4.05 to 4.30 in Fenway in front of the crappy Red Sox defense) and a #3 or #4 pitchers is a little worse than that. Simply throwing 100 innings is enough to make you one of the top 125 starters in the majors.

Houck is the #19 pitcher in the majors by both ERA and IP, so I believe he is a credible #1. At least a #1B.

Crawford and Pivetta are more of a #3 or #4. Both are fly ball pitchers who would look better in a larger park.

Bello was pretty bad in the first half, but since the mental reset at the end of June, he is #7 in IP and #48 with a 3.66 ERA (would be much better with a decent defense). I understand and accept people’s skepticism, but would at least see that second half as the POTENTIAL to be a strong #2.

As you say, they have plenty of guys right now to fill the #4 to #6 roles. Hopefully Giolito can rebound to be a strong #3.

They could still use a “true ace” for sure, but the rotation is in better shape than either the bullpen, the crappy defense, or the strikeout-heavy offense.

No, I said above that they need another top arm. What they have is an above average rotation backed by an average lineup, crappy defense, and inconsistent bullpen. That doesn’t add up to a playoff run.

How many of the playoff teams have two SP better than Houck by either ERA or innings pitched? Maybe one or two of them?

The Red Sox rotation was sixth in the majors by ERA *this* year, and a healthy Giolito with Pivetta resigned would extend that. (Bello is probably the better pitcher, though, so I would slot them differently.)

I definitely covet another #1/#2 pitcher, but I see that as improving on a strength rather than patching a weakness.

The weaknesses?

* 30 bullpen losses, 8th most in the majors. A 4.46 bullpen ERA, sixth worst in the majors.

* -20 FRV defensively, 7th worst in the majors

* 25.3% K, third most in the majors, vs. a very average 8.0% BB. Results in an offense that struggles for consistency.

* A 104 RC+, barely above average, #10 in the majors. The offense only looks better than this because of the boost it gets from Fenway.

So I’m not saying the rotation couldn’t be better. But it is less of a weakness than the bullpen, less of a weakness than the offense, and far less of a weakness than the team-crappy defense. It makes sense to get an ace pitcher because of the carry-on effects from taking the load off the lesser arms. But that alone won’t push them into the playoffs, let alone make them a serious contender.

Fix the damn defense for once, and the pitching looks better. Sign at least one if not two impact arms for the bullpen. Commit to some lineup depth so we don’t suffer through Dalbec, Cooper, and Smith again next year. And stop pretending that Yoshida is an asset when he blocks the one spot which you could fill with a legit RHH bat.

If the starting pitching is the only area they upgrade this winter, you can write off 2025 before the season begins.

The problem with that is they are short on stars. Patching holes with “pretty good” players doesn’t deliver the kind of 5 to 10 game improvement you need to get into the playoffs and succeed in October.

Nothing against Duran, Devers, and Houck, but they aren’t Damon, Manny, and Pedro. Without HOF quality talent on the roster they need more than three stars on the roster, and I’m not seeing that yet. MAYBE some of the kids have that potential down the line, but I doubt that will happen in 2025.

Remember that Theo consistently ran one of the higher payrolls in the league. The Red Sox have been surpassed in that department.

Well, sure, if you are willing to be patient and only see the playoffs occasionally…. There are a few lower payroll teams in the playoffs, but there are a lot more missing them entirely.

I still believe that the CBT calculation misrepresents the payroll being spent for on-field talent.

Even by that measure, the Red Sox are merely #12 in CBT payroll. They are more or less average in payroll and more or less average on the field. Even with 12 teams in the playoffs, you need to be above average to get in, and the Red Sox haven’t done anything exceptionally well.

On-field competitiveness is about talent, not the payroll. Simply waiting out contracts won’t make them more competitive, unless that payroll is spent effectively to acquire new talent. Besides, that implies another three years of mediocrity? That’s a long time to wait.

The contracts are a sunk cost that you pay regardless of whether the player is on the roster or not. If the player retains some value, then you can trade him while eating part of the contract. If not, or if you want to get a meaningful prospect in return, then you end up eating the whole thing. But that money was spent when the player was signed.

Story still has a role on the roster, so trading him now doesn’t make sense. MAYBE after Mayer establishes himself, but not before.

Yoshida has no role on the roster, so it doesn’t make sense to keep him. The problem isn’t that he is overpaid. The problem is that he doesn’t improve the team. They are better off using his roster spot and playing time for other players.

Hanging on to sunk costs simply because you paid too much for them is not the way to manage an investment portfolio and not the way to run a baseball team.