The Red Sox lost to the Blue Jays tonight, minutes after wins by the Royals and Tigers. That officially eliminated Boston from playoff contention and turns their attention completely to the offseason. Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow met with the Boston beat before the game. While he didn’t go into too many specifics, he offered a few hints about where the Sox could turn in the winter.
Breslow pointed to the rotation, bullpen and a desire to balance a lefty-heavy lineup among the areas of focus (link via Sean McAdam of MassLive). That not coincidentally overlaps with the Sox’s impending free agents. Nick Pivetta, Tyler O’Neill, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Danny Jansen and Lucas Sims are all headed to the open market. That’s a pair of right-handed bats, one of their top starters, and multiple high-leverage relievers.
Asked about O’Neill specifically, Breslow said the Sox are “definitely interested in having some of those conversations” about a new deal (relayed by Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). Boston hit on a buy-low acquisition of the slugger from the Cardinals last offseason. O’Neill leads the team with 31 home runs and sports a .240/.335/.512 slash across 469 plate appearances. He had a trio of brief injured list stints but has been one of the Sox’s best hitters when healthy. O’Neill has been a particularly key piece of maintaining some amount of lineup balance. He has obliterated lefty pitching at a .313/.429/.750 clip in 156 trips to the plate. He’s tied with Aaron Judge for second in MLB (one behind Ketel Marte) with 16 home runs off southpaws.
O’Neill is eligible for a qualifying offer. There’s a good chance the 29-year-old left fielder would accept a one-year offer worth more than $21MM. That’d be a massive jump over this year’s $5.85MM arbitration salary. The Sox may prefer a three- or four-year deal that comes at a more manageable annual rate. O’Neill’s camp will probably look to top the respective $42MM guarantees secured by Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jorge Soler last winter.
Even if they retain O’Neill, that’d leave the Sox with the same lefty-leaning lineup they trotted out this year. They’ll need more contributors via some combination of free agency, trade and internal improvement. Vaughn Grissom is one of the higher-upside righty bats already on the roster. Grissom’s first season in Boston was underwhelming, as he battled injuries and struggled for most of the year. (Chris Sale, for whom the young infielder was traded, pitching his way to the NL Cy Young in Atlanta only adds to the disappointment.)
The Sox have split time at second base between Grissom and lefty-hitting Enmanuel Valdez with the season winding down. Breslow was noncommittal on whether the 23-year-old will enter next season as the favorite at second base. “I think he’s absolutely got the potential to do that,” the chief baseball officer said of Grissom being an everyday player (via Speier). “But ultimately it’s going to be the play on the field that dictates who our everyday second base is.”
Ha-Seong Kim, who’ll also draw attention as a shortstop, and Gleyber Torres headline the free agent class at second base. Jonathan India will probably be the subject of trade speculation yet again. It seems unlikely that the Sox would devote a ton of resources to the position. That’d impede Grissom and speedster David Hamilton next season. With top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer potentially on the radar for a 2025 debut, the keystone could be the long-term home for Trevor Story.
The pitching staff is a clearer area for free agent investment. Jansen and Martin have been two of Alex Cora’s top three leverage arms for the past couple seasons. Rule 5 pick Justin Slaten will be back in the late innings. Liam Hendriks should be healthy and could compete with Slaten for the closing job. The Sox will probably look for multiple additions to solidify the setup corps in front of that duo. A reunion with Martin wouldn’t be surprising.
A rotation built around Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and hopefully a healthy Lucas Giolito has promise. Richard Fitts has had decent results in his first four MLB starts. Pivetta has absorbed a lot of innings while flashing strikeout stuff over the past few years though. The Sox will need to replace that volume if he walks.
Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty headline the free agent rotation class. Sean Manaea, Nick Martinez, Luis Severino and old friend Nathan Eovaldi (assuming he declines a $20MM player option with Texas) are among the middle-tier starters who’d more closely mirror last winter’s Giolito pickup.
The rotation still needs work. The same thing could be said about the rotation going into this season, they show promise and a healthy Giolito has promise.
Let’s get some help there. If they go into 2025 without meaningful upgrades on the player side to the rotation, were in for more of the same.
Yes, agreed. The rotation needs a MLB-quality #1 and #2 starters and the bullpen will need a stopper and a closer. Not sure how it all will pan out, but I can’t believe that Boston is as desirable a destination for FAs as it was when the team was winning consistently just a few years ago.
pitch upgrades are more likely to come via trade. That said unless there is a trade involving Rafaela, Duran or Abreu, I’d be very shocked if the sox offered O’Neil a 3/4 year contract especially with the outfield talent on the way up.
I agree with that take on the OFers but I also think Seattle and Boston line up very well for a trade this winter. Seattle’s season long offensive struggles and Boston’s need for a solid top of the rotation arm should be the makings of a deal. I’d like to see the Sox try and target either Kirby or Gilbert and see what they can work out with Seattle to land one of them.
Duran would certainly get the M’s attention. Duran/Rodriguez/Arozarena would make for a highly impactful outfield.
He’d be the key piece that would likely get you one of Seattle’s better pitchers.
Yeah I was kinda figuring he’d have to headline a package in this scenario. It would be tough sending him in a deal but at the same time I’m of the mindset that this year probably will wind up being Duran’s “career year” and while he won’t drop off substantially he’s probably not going to repeat the level of production he had this year either. So capitalizing on it now to shore up the rotation makes sense. But I’m struggling to identify who would realistically take over the lead off spot of the Sox trade him.
Yoshida and one of the Red Sox back end type starters for Luis Castillo that could make sense.
Salary concerns
if Duran enabled the sox to get George Kirby I’d strongly consider that. Suddenly pitching goes from being a major concern to a strength.
While I see how this lines up in the abstract I very much doubt any of these three players are going to be on the market this offseason. If Seattle moves a pitcher it’s more likely to be one of woo or Miller imo. Similarly duran feels least likely to be the of piece Boston listens on rn.
The rotation depth is improved a bit, now that Fitts and Priester are major league ready, but they still need another arm at the top.
Could use two leverage relievers, preferably one from the left side. I’m hoping Whitlock will help in the pen as well.
Yoshida isn’t a terrible hitter, but he is a better fit on another roster.
Outside of adding some pitching, the biggest priority / challenge of this offseason will be balancing the lineup. Right now, Boston has 5 LHH starters: Devers, Duran, Casas, Yoshida & Abreu. David Hamilton also bats LH. Making things worse, 3 of their Top 4 prospects bat LH as well: Mayer, Anthony & Teel. Breslow should find a way to trade Yoshida this offseason but that’s not nearly enough. He’ll need to trade another 1-2 LHH and replace them with RHH to balance the lineup. Re-signing O’Neill might be a necessity for the team. Then the really tough decisions will need to be made. If they believe Roman Anthony is ready, they could trade Duran for a haul. If they want to spend big, they could trade Casas for pitching and sign Pete Alonso to a big free agent contract but Henry seems a little too tight in the wallet these days to approve this.
Both Mayer & Teel should make their debuts next year and Anthony could as well. If this happens and Breslow does not make any trades, there would be nights where 7 or even 8 of their starters all bat left-handed. That just can’t happen in today’s MLB. I don’t envy Breslow at all this offseason as he’ll need to trade some fan favorites in order to balance the lineup. Let’s just hope he can acquire equally good players in return for the talent they’ll need to send out.
Dorothy, as good as TO has been, he and the current team strike out too much. Yoshida is a solid hitter but yes needs to be dealt. No one should be off limits, it just depends on the return offered. I would love for this team to be built on defense and pitching. To me, Casas and Yoshida plus perhaps Abreu or even Duran who will become more expensive should all be traded. Then depending on other moves, you hopefully find gloves at first and third and DH Raffy. The best part of the last two weeks was seeing Story return. If he becomes his old self in 25 (still a huge if), it will improve the team on both sides of the ball.
dewey – O’Neill has just 61 RBI while batting almost exclusively 3rd-5th, he is simply not a big money player. And his defense is brutal. I would be very surprised and disappointed if he returns next season … unless it’s as a reasonably paid platoon player against LHP only.
Fever/Dewey – I agree that O’Neill’s strikeout rates are concerning but his defense is much better than ‘brutal’. He’s won 2 GG for his OF defense albeit one of them coming in the shortened 2020 season, but he won it again in 2021. He made some nice plays in RF for them this year and he has an excellent arm too.
I’d be perfectly fine with them signing another RHH free agent who can play LF & RF but I don’t see anyone available that fits this bill with the power and defense that O’Neill provides. Abreu was amazing in RF this year, but he is of course a LHH and needs to sit against some of the tougher LH pitchers in the league. Michael Conforto may be available but is he better than O’Neill? The Sox need to replace his power somehow as outside of Devers and maybe a healthy Casas, they really don’t have anyone who can guarantee them 20+ HRs next year. A healthy Story would be great but not sure we can count on that. Also, aim hoping Rafaela continues to improve at the plate. He’s the closest thing they have to Mookie, but at best Rafaela becomes “Mookie-Lite”.
Kristian Campbell is a RH hitter and he has played in the outfield in the minors. So, I think he could play there with the Sox. I think he could handle left field.
Dotty – Check out Tyler’s defensive analytics, such as him ranking 52nd in MLB for DRS while Duran and Abreu are ranked 2 & 3.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&sea…
Or look up all misplays, like getting bad reads on the ball and airmailing throws. His GG days are way behind him, perhaps injuries are impacting his defense.
google.com/amp/s/nesn.com/2024/07/tyler-oneill-ope…
Campbell has the athleticism to handle CF. Certainly LF would be within his talents.
The Red Sox need to trade Yoshida regardless of anything else, even if they eat half the remaining money.
They could then potentially sign O’Neill to play DH, with Abreu/Duran/Anthony/Rafaela in the field. All four of those are excellent defenders.
That said, the jump in O’Neill’s strikeout rate is scary, and he is approaching the age where most hitters see their games collapse. And he is a Boras client, so the contract ask will be through the roof. I wouldn’t mind him on a one year deal but don’t think a 4 year contract makes sense.
tff – I’m fine with trading Yoshida now that I’ve seen a second year of his performance, but not as a salary dump to make room for another free agent DH whose OPS will be only about 50 points higher. And getting rid of a decent hitter just because he’s lefthanded doesn’t make sense, because you never know what the team L/R mix will be in a year or two.
As for signing Tyler, I would definitely not sign him for more than a 1-year deal at well below the QO. Either Devers or Casas will likely be a DH in the near future, we don’t want to tie up the DH position longterm. Especially with a player who has an extensive injury record and is effective only against LHP.
Forget payroll for a moment. If you don’t move on from Yoshida, then how do you improve the offense? How do you improve the defense? I know that some people are laser-focused on improving the pitching, and I agree that it makes sense to add a #1/#2 starter and one or two ace relievers, but that alone doesn’t make this a playoff team. The offense would still be leaning on Fenway to make it look good, and the defense would still be giving away games.
The weakest defenders this year have been Wong, Valdez, Gonzalez, and Refsnyder. Rafaela was pretty bad at SS, though I think he has improved. Devers is a defensive weakness that will persist until he can be moved to DH. Reyes was awful defensively.
Quickest way to improve the defense is to move on from Wong, Valdez, and Gonzalez. They give back so much defensively that they don’t contribute much to the team, even when they hit well. Refsnyder and Yoshida are decent hitters, but both belong at DH at this point in their careers. And Devers is stuck in the field until the DH spot opens up.
I agree that it doesn’t make sense to eat Yoshida’s salary and then turn around and block the DH position with another mediocre hitter. The three guys I would have some interest in are Soto, Guerrero, and Rooker. All three would bring a lot more to the table than Yoshida or O’Neill or Refsnyder.
Absent that, I would prefer Refsnyder to Yoshida, as he can at least play a LITTLE defense, and contributes from the RHH side. I just don’t see how the Red Sox can continue to carry multiple limited defensive players on the roster.
no one should be off limits. Nailed it.
tff – If it was the 2003-2019 Red Sox, I’d say sure eat a huge chunk of Yoshida’s contract and sign someone even better who can play defense too.
But it’s the 2025 Red Sox, very unlikely they will write off that kind of money or spend prospects/cash on acquiring somebody else.
And come on, you make it sound like he’s a bad hitter. Once his wrist healed from June 24 to now he’s batting .303 with a .370 OBP and .828 OPS. His batting average and OBP is the highest on the team among all regulars during that span, even higher than Duran’s BA and OBP.. Why would you count Yoshida’s wrist injury against him?
Yoshida is probably the best contact hitter on a team that is loaded with VERY high swing-and-miss hitters:
Look at the SO% for the entire season:
Wong 24%
Casas 32%
Valdez 24%
Grissom 20%
Rafaela 26%
Devers 25%
O’Neill 34% <<<<<<<<<<<
Duran 22%
Abreu 28%
YOSHIDA = 12%
I mean, if you're gonna insist that team success is reliant on a good mixture of L/R hitters, how can you be so anxious to jettison the ONE guy on the team that is an exceptional contact hitter?
As for Wong, Romy and Valdez …. totally agree on getting rid of Valdez, Romy I'd keep as a multi-positional bench player because he's a decent hitter,
tff – As for Wong, keep him as the starting catcher until Teel arrives and then I’m fine with using him as the backup catcher and occasional sub in other positions.
Until Teel arrives I say go with McGuire as the backup, he’s the best defensive catcher compared to Wong/Jansen.
But again, everything depends on whether you are talking about contending next year or bridging again next year. My perspective is bridging, I seriously doubt they will spend money to GFIN next year. That’s also a big reason why I’m content holding onto Yoshida for at least another half year, hopefully increase his value by playing injury-free. Why improve the DH slot in a year they don’t plan to contend?
It comes down to defense. As long as Yoshida is at DH, that pushes other weak defenders into the field.
Would want a .400 wOBA for a permanent DH. Yoshida isn’t a bad hitter, but he’s no Vlad.
As long as the defense struggles, the pitching will look bad.
Oh, sure, if you are willing to go ANOTHER year with a .500 record, then just do nothing. They are already there.
Winning would require a few moves.
tff – Agree with you on the importance of defense, but who do you propose should move to DH if Yoshida is traded this offseason? Devers or Casas? Those are the only two glaring defensive weaknesses assuming O’Neill is gone.
They have two GG outfielders in Duran and Abreu.
They have a GG super-sub in Rafaela who can play CF, SS or 2B.
They have Story who is a GG caliber SS/2B.
So really the ONLY three positions that can be upgraded defensively are 3B, 1B and Catcher.
If you’re saying get rid of Yoshida and move Devers or Casas to DH, then yeah I agree with you that would improve the defense …. but that would depend on who replaces them, plus I don’t see either getting moved just yet …. UNLESS Devers continues to have injury issues.
So I guess we are on the same page?
Devers could potentially benefit from 40 games at DH. And it is the one position Wong can field decently. Use it for Refsnyder when he starts. Beyond that, use it to give players a rest?
Or, potentially, acquire a top bat and live with the defensive issues. I just don’t think Yoshida is it.
tff – Okay, so you gave me the answer to my earlier question …. you want changes that will make the Sox a contender in 2025.
Like I said, my perspective is that of another bridge year because it’s highly unlikely any of CMAT will begin the regular season as productive major league starters. And ownership has stated they won’t try to contend until CMAT has become established major league starters.
Not sure if you missed my earlier post, Cora came out yesterday and admitted the reason why he’s letting his regulars play so much is because he didn’t plan on the team contending this year … which is right in line with ownership’s cheapness and Breslow doing virtually nothing last offseason and at the trade deadline.
tff – Wait, what? Wong at 3B?
He’s played a grand total of one inning at 3B in the majors.
And he’s played 73 innings at 3B in 2019 when he was in AA.
That’s basically it for his 3B experience.
I’m fine with acquiring a legit 3B or 1B and moving Devers or Casas to DH and trading Yoshida, but whomever is brought in will need to be a better contact hitter than Yoshida, which won’t be easy, because the team desperately needs a hitter who can put their bat on the ball.
And actually I’m more comfortable with Casas on defense now because he’s been really good at snagging bad throws which is the most important defensive aspect of a first baseman.. I can live with the lack of range and balls going through his legs, as long as it doesn’t get worse.
Huh? Wong is a DH. He can’t field any other position passably. Decent hitter against lefties, though, so it wouldn’t hurt him to get a few games there.
Being a contact hitter is nice, but not really the goal. Makes more sense for somebody who is athletic and a good baseunner, not a station to station guy like Yoshida.
The way to improve the team strikeouts is to find players who strike out less – not to find a single contact hitter in the hope that it will somehow average out.
tff – I didn’t catch your joke until now. LOL
When you wrote “Devers could potentially benefit from 40 games at DH. And it is the one position Wong can field decently.” …..
Since you mentioned Devers, and since DH is not a fielding position, I thought you meant 3B instead of DH :O)
BTW – What do you think of the yellow City Connects replacing the blue jerseys as alternates?
Personally I don’t like it. The Red Sox colors have always been Red, White and Navy Blue. They should remain that way.
And I have never worn yellow in my life.
I think the “popularity” of the yellow jerseys is just because of the uniqueness of it, people trying to be “different”. Therefore I think eventually it will become less popular as it becomes more common.
But either way, uniforms are not a big deal to me. I will continue to wear red and blue jerseys.
Dotty – The majority of analysts, including the great Alex Speier, strongly believe Campbell & Anthony have the best chance of being promoted first.
I agree with them, I think the injury has pushed back the ETA for Mayer and I think Teel is just a bit behind the other Big 3 prospects.
With that said, replacing Yoshida with a solid RHB and promoting Campbell should go a long way in balancing the lineup.
ML promotions are based on the team needs as much as on the progress of the player. Wong is a really bad defensive catcher, and does not appear to be improving with experience. Thus the choices:
(1) Sign a cheaply available backup catcher to a “bridge” deal, continuing to play Wong daily for a couple months, while waiting for Teel to prove himself “ready”.
(2) If Teel looks good in Spring Training, have him start the season in the majors. Send that cheap backup catcher to the minors.
(3) Commit resources to finding a decent catcher (e.g. Jansen), then trade or release Wong when Teel is ready.
tff – They still have McGuire in the minors under team control next year, I’m fine with having him fill in until Teel is ready. Unless there’s external issues involving him, not really sure if his demotion was related to what happened in Colorado, I think he would have been gone no matter what based on performance.
McGuire wasn’t doing anything to keep his job, but at least he is defensively competent. Wong is basically a DH and should not be starting at either C or 1B other than in an emergency.
tff – Cora believes Wong is Zobrist 2.0 and therefore wants him playing at several positions. That was the whole reason why they carried a third catcher for a while, and are doing so right now.
I don’t disagree with what you wrote, but obviously Cora does and that’s all that matters.
Speaking of third catcher, the whole Mickey thing has become very sad. Still showing his parents during every plate appearance, and he’s looking worse and worse at the plate. He’s freezing up on meatballs right down the middle of the strike zone. Hope they bench him tomorrow to end the insanity, but I doubt Cora will.
I’m not the one running the team. I can suggest ways to make the team more competitive, but if management chooses to go in a different direction then that is their right.
I don’t know whether they will choose to compete in 2025 or not. I believe they could reasonably choose to do so, but it would require spending money that Henry might prefer to pocket. His choice one way or the other.
So what’s wrong with 3-4 lefty hitters? Counting DH, it still leaves more right-handed hitters than left. Plus, the vast majority of pitchers throw with their right hand, so having that many, or even more, lefties wouldn’t seem to be a concern, in my opinion.
Coop – I’ve been saying that forever. Because 75% of all pitchers are righties, one would think a team would be better constructed with 4 or 5 lefthanded hitters in the regular lineup. It’s insane to consider trading Duran, Abreu, Devers or Casas just because they are lefties …. not to mention the majority of the top prospects coming are all lefties. Just ensure there’s righties on the bench, that’s all. The problem has been the RHB they do have (Rafaela, Story, Grissom, etc) have underperformed.
And splits don’t matter for good hitters, look at Judge & Soto’s splits ….. they kill RHP and LHP.
tff – I’m gonna reserve judgement on Priester until he proves he can actually pitch in the majors. It’s a VERY big step going from AAA to the majors, and it just feels like he’s being overhyped.
FPG, I don’t hype guys. I agree that the step up from AAA to the majors is the largest, and there is never any certainty of how a player will perform. But in analyzing a prospect you need to look at how they’ve progressed, not simply at the full-season line.
Pitching is a combination of potential and consistency. Priester is better at missing bats than Fitts, which gives him a slightly higher ceiling (maybe a #3 pitcher if all goes right), and his consistency improved over the last two months. Three of his last four starts were very strong, only one bust where his command deserted him.
The rotation depth last winter (your order may differ) included Giolito, Pivetta, Bello, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, and Criswell. Giolito had recent performance concerns, Whitlock is always an injury concern (and showed that in 2023), and Criswell is a pretty limited talent.
This year they have a chance to go into the season with five solid veterans including Houck, Bello, Giolito, and Crawford. And hopefully a quality acquisition. Criswell, Fitts, and Priester ought to line up as depth, and are a step up from the depth we had last year. I would hope that they can avoid “bullpen games”.
Think Winckowski. Guys who are pitchable and don’t go out of their way to lose games. That has value because they are a step up from Anderson, Keller, Joely Rodriguez, and Horn. Better than what Garcia and Sims gave us as well for that matter.
I look at the Red Sox rotation and I see 4’s, 5’s, and 6’s. Not a single one of them would I consider a 1 or 2. There is 3 potential in there for a couple. The problem with filling out a rotation with back end arms is that you do so because you have nearly nothing in the system to displace them. When the injuries start, and they always do, your replacements tend to be guys with very little chance to succeed for any sustained period at the MLB level. In other words, your replacing mediocrity usually with patch work garbage.
Are you taking Fenway and the weak defense into account? Between the two, they add about half a run per game to the pitchers’ tallies.
I also wonder if you have looked around the league? There are just 125 pitchers in the majors with 100+ innings, and the median of those has a 3.80 ERA. So to a first approximation, a #1 or #2 pitcher is better than 3.80 (4.05 to 4.30 in Fenway in front of the crappy Red Sox defense) and a #3 or #4 pitchers is a little worse than that. Simply throwing 100 innings is enough to make you one of the top 125 starters in the majors.
Houck is the #19 pitcher in the majors by both ERA and IP, so I believe he is a credible #1. At least a #1B.
Crawford and Pivetta are more of a #3 or #4. Both are fly ball pitchers who would look better in a larger park.
Bello was pretty bad in the first half, but since the mental reset at the end of June, he is #7 in IP and #48 with a 3.66 ERA (would be much better with a decent defense). I understand and accept people’s skepticism, but would at least see that second half as the POTENTIAL to be a strong #2.
As you say, they have plenty of guys right now to fill the #4 to #6 roles. Hopefully Giolito can rebound to be a strong #3.
They could still use a “true ace” for sure, but the rotation is in better shape than either the bullpen, the crappy defense, or the strikeout-heavy offense.
Just to be clear, you are happy and convinced that a rotation of Houck as your ace(B), and what your claiming is 4 pitchers that are number 3’s and 4’s is the recipe to a playoff run. Interesting it hasn’t happened yet.
In all seriousness, I see what you are saying, but the reality is, even with your slightly uplifting evaluation, your conceding Houke is not really an ace, just the best we have. Your conceding we have no real number 2, which you admit is where Houck should be if rated as high as you think. Which means our collection of 3’s and 4’s, as you put it, may not actually be 3’s and 4’s, but more likely 4’s, and 5’s. That is on our team. On playoff teams this year half our guys aren’t starting, Houke is probably a 3, and Bello 4 or 5.
No, I said above that they need another top arm. What they have is an above average rotation backed by an average lineup, crappy defense, and inconsistent bullpen. That doesn’t add up to a playoff run.
How many of the playoff teams have two SP better than Houck by either ERA or innings pitched? Maybe one or two of them?
And yeah, for a playoff run you want guys like Crawford and Pivetta as your #4 and #5, with the minor leguers as depth and bullpen arms.
That makes the rotation Houck, Giolito, Bello, Crawford and Pivetta as it stands if we resign guys. That is not cutting it. If we add 1 ace pitcher, they all drop one slot, and the Red Sox will not pay Pivetta real money to pitch out of the pen. so, he wouldn’t come back.
So….Unnamed ace, Houck, Giolito, Bello, Crawford.
Maybe, just maybe, a shot at contending for wild card if Giolito shows anything, and Bello finally figures out he isn’t a sinker baller.
Someone needs to be willing to trade an ace to the Red Sox. An ace may or may not be available. Also, if the asking price is too ridiculous, the Sox may not see it as worthwhile.
Match ups are what matter because they happen game to game to tilt odds of success. You compare 1-5 vs 1-5. Slot against slot. If Houck is your ace, you’re already starting with (in your words) a 1b pitcher either against an ace, or fellow 1b pitcher. Using your words. We then have a 2 vs our 3, a 3 vs our 4, a 4 vs maybe a 4, or 5. a 5 vs a 5 or 6.
Other teams do not need two pitchers better then Houck. They need 1 close to, or better, and 2 others that pitch at number 2 or 3 levels. Teams that outperform that usually dominate. Ex: Maddux Atlanta years. Yankees title years, etc.
You want Houck to be an ace? Puff, he is the ace. That means he is the best we can muster. Those other guys that show time and again they are back-end starters will face better guys, a lot.
Red Sox are 17th in pitching. The question is this. How many other team’s playoff teams have 2, 3, 4, 5 better pitchers then the 5 we run out there in match ups of 1-5?
You can argue Seattle 1-5 may be better than each match up 1-5 we offer, but they aren’t even in the playoffs atm.
The Yankees two top names have had down years, but you would still probably want their 1-5 over our 1-5 in matchups.
Baltimore isn’t a strong rotation, but I would still rather have their 1, 2, 3 in order over our 1,2,3.
Rather than go team by team since there are far more better rotations then ours in the playoffs it is easier to list that. Cleveland is probably not as good. Baltimore 4, and 5 pitchers are probably not as good as our 4, 5. In nearly every other case the team in the play offs will have 3 to 4 starters better than our counterpart for that rotation slot.
Then they will be looking in rather than out. They need to buy, trade, or discover a number 1 and 2. I have been getting into it with someone here about the rotation and I love Houck, but I need him to be a 3. I need at least 2 arms off that rotation also to either create payroll, or be relegated to the pen to bolster there, and knock 2 names off that trash heap middle inning pen.
The Red Sox rotation was sixth in the majors by ERA *this* year, and a healthy Giolito with Pivetta resigned would extend that. (Bello is probably the better pitcher, though, so I would slot them differently.)
I definitely covet another #1/#2 pitcher, but I see that as improving on a strength rather than patching a weakness.
The weaknesses?
* 30 bullpen losses, 8th most in the majors. A 4.46 bullpen ERA, sixth worst in the majors.
* -20 FRV defensively, 7th worst in the majors
* 25.3% K, third most in the majors, vs. a very average 8.0% BB. Results in an offense that struggles for consistency.
* A 104 RC+, barely above average, #10 in the majors. The offense only looks better than this because of the boost it gets from Fenway.
So I’m not saying the rotation couldn’t be better. But it is less of a weakness than the bullpen, less of a weakness than the offense, and far less of a weakness than the team-crappy defense. It makes sense to get an ace pitcher because of the carry-on effects from taking the load off the lesser arms. But that alone won’t push them into the playoffs, let alone make them a serious contender.
Fix the damn defense for once, and the pitching looks better. Sign at least one if not two impact arms for the bullpen. Commit to some lineup depth so we don’t suffer through Dalbec, Cooper, and Smith again next year. And stop pretending that Yoshida is an asset when he blocks the one spot which you could fill with a legit RHH bat.
If the starting pitching is the only area they upgrade this winter, you can write off 2025 before the season begins.
I suspect you aren’t taking Fenway into account, let alone the crappy Red Sox defense. Adjusting for park effects, the Red Sox ERA- of 95 is 11th in the majors. I agree with you that isn’t good enough — but the bullpen needs a heck of a lot more help than the rotation. The rotation simply needs a fifth healthy arm, so we don’t see half a dozen “bullpen games” on top of limited-inning starts by Criswell.
Don’t forget about the other myriad team needs. And if the defense were doing its job, the ENTIRE TEAM would have an ERA that is a quarter run lower. They’d look a bit better then, no?
I think the Red Sox will balance present needs with future needs. Theo Epstein always said you need to keep one eye on the present and one eye on the future when making moves. So, if trading for an ace costs too much of the future, I doubt it will happen unless they are very close to winning a World Series. For example, the trade for Quinn Priester didn’t give up much of the future. I think the Red Sox sign may Luis Severino this offseason.
*may sign
The problem with that is they are short on stars. Patching holes with “pretty good” players doesn’t deliver the kind of 5 to 10 game improvement you need to get into the playoffs and succeed in October.
Nothing against Duran, Devers, and Houck, but they aren’t Damon, Manny, and Pedro. Without HOF quality talent on the roster they need more than three stars on the roster, and I’m not seeing that yet. MAYBE some of the kids have that potential down the line, but I doubt that will happen in 2025.
Remember that Theo consistently ran one of the higher payrolls in the league. The Red Sox have been surpassed in that department.
Breslow is consulting with Theo. I’m sure the Red Sox will gladly pick up some stars and No. 1 and No. 2 starters if it doesn’t cost half the farm or a long, expensive contract for an older player. There is no need to have one of the largest payrolls in MLB when you see lower payroll teams like Arizona going to the World Series.
Well, sure, if you are willing to be patient and only see the playoffs occasionally…. There are a few lower payroll teams in the playoffs, but there are a lot more missing them entirely.
The Red Sox are spending around the first luxury tax threshold. So, they should be able to do much better than lower payroll teams. They need to spend their money better and I think they will. They need to wait out bad contracts such as Story’s and Yoshida’s and lock up their good young talent as they have started to do.
Suit – you can’t wait out story and Yoshida’s contracts.
If you do, any *savings* you realize will be negated by the young talent that currently is/will be cheap and near minimum will be making hefty arb salaries.
Sox need to spend *now* while those guys are cheap. Limit it to 2-4 year pacts that carry a slight overpay premium that will drop off when you need to pay your last few seasons of arb salaries on the youngsters.
GA: Good to see you. I’m not completely sure what you are getting at regarding young players. If you are saying lock them into affordable contracts, I agree. If they can’t trade the bad contracts (or parts of them), they will need to pay them which is waiting them out.
Tff – I wasn’t referring to you when I said he’s being overhyped ;o)
And I didn’t mention his AAA numbers this year. It was just a general statement, to me “MLB ready” requires a few starts in the majors before making that assumption.
To me, “ML ready” means the team can call them up when there is a need. That’s the maximum you can prove while still in the minors. 😉
I still believe that the CBT calculation misrepresents the payroll being spent for on-field talent.
Even by that measure, the Red Sox are merely #12 in CBT payroll. They are more or less average in payroll and more or less average on the field. Even with 12 teams in the playoffs, you need to be above average to get in, and the Red Sox haven’t done anything exceptionally well.
On-field competitiveness is about talent, not the payroll. Simply waiting out contracts won’t make them more competitive, unless that payroll is spent effectively to acquire new talent. Besides, that implies another three years of mediocrity? That’s a long time to wait.
CBT payroll is the sum of the average annual value of all contracts. I think it is a reasonable representation of spending. Agreed that waiting out contracts won’t make them more competitive, but unless some or all of a bad contract is taken on by another team, the Red Sox will need to pay the contract each year until it is over (which I call waiting it out). I would love to shed bad contracts immediately, but that is easier said than done. I’ve had enough of waiting out bad contracts which is why I don’t like signing older free agents to long, expensive contracts. A team could release a player on a bad contract and pay the contract off, but that doesn’t happen very often. It might happen with a year or maybe two years left on a contract. Story and Yoshida each have 3 years left on their contracts, so I don’t see the Red Sox releasing them and paying their contracts until after next year at the earliest. I think Story might actually be able to have a good year or two if he can stay healthy.
The contracts are a sunk cost that you pay regardless of whether the player is on the roster or not. If the player retains some value, then you can trade him while eating part of the contract. If not, or if you want to get a meaningful prospect in return, then you end up eating the whole thing. But that money was spent when the player was signed.
Story still has a role on the roster, so trading him now doesn’t make sense. MAYBE after Mayer establishes himself, but not before.
Yoshida has no role on the roster, so it doesn’t make sense to keep him. The problem isn’t that he is overpaid. The problem is that he doesn’t improve the team. They are better off using his roster spot and playing time for other players.
Hanging on to sunk costs simply because you paid too much for them is not the way to manage an investment portfolio and not the way to run a baseball team.
tff17: I agree that hanging onto sunk costs does not help a team compete, but teams seem to do that as far as I can see until there is maybe 1 or 2 years left on a contract. I think the Red Sox will do the same. I don’t like it, but I think that’s the reality.
The reason so many teams (like the Red Sox) are such vocal advocates of splits and “flexibility” is because they lack solid everyday starting players.
Our best player is an abysmally inconsistent fielder and an A tier star (not S tier). Duran may very well end up being our best player in the long run (because he offers far more in nearly all aspects), but time and consistency will dictate that. The quality drops quickly from those two. So yes, when the other guys are middle of the road talents and role players you are more apt to not give a crap about platooning. When no one fields exceptionally well at their given position you are more apt to let them field relatively poorly anywhere.
Isn’t Duran already their best player? I also like Abreu, considering the whole package. But I totally agree, there isn’t much after Duran, Devers, and Abreu. Casas and Story are good players if healthy. Rafaela has potential if he can figure out how to hit. But that leaves three positions that need to be filled.
2B: Grissom, Campbell?
OF: Anthony #1 prospect in MLB
C: Teel?
They need to find a 3B so that Devers can move to DH. I’ve been wondering if Mayer or Campbell might land there?
Sometimes to reset a bad team (this is a bad team with major glaring flaws) you have to look at future expiring contracts that will free payroll up, look at where you sit in the luxury tax payroll cap and realize you have to spend to right the ship.
We need an ace. GO BUY ONE. Why jettison the very prospects you need for the rebuild? BUY!!!!!
We could use another number 2 starter to upgrade our 2 slot and jettison a starter to our weak ass pen.
We need an elite lefty reliever. We haven’t had one in over a decade, and it has been glaring in late game matchups for over a decade how badly we needed it.
We need 1 legit pure hitting righty with the kind of power that makes pitcher butts clinch. This lineup hasn’t instilled fear in anyone in years. The lineup needs to lengthen with threats.
This costs free agency money, or prospects. We have to many flaws to buy all the solutions, but money is the fastest way in baseball to actually SOLVE a problem without losing what could be future solutions. You trade top prospects only when you are creating a long-term solution that is a team changing upgrade. Ex: You do not trade a top prospect for an aging middle reliever like Larry Anderson, because you want a slightly less bad 7th inning pitcher then the one you have.
I’m with you on that, william! Get a top arm, a lefty relief ace (to complement Hendriks, Whitlock, and Slaten), and I dearly covet a RHH masher like Guerrero or Rooker.
Not clear that the last need can be solved this year via free agency, unless you are seeing somebody I’m not? I’m not thrilled with the idea of committing to O’Neill.
Relievers are always available if you meet the price.
Some good SP on the market, as well as potential trade-and-sign candidates. But the needs are what they are. Probably my only disagreement with you is that I believe Houck, Bello, Giolito, and Crawford would be fine as the #2 to #5 starters.
tff – In terms of this season and overall talent, yes Duran is their best player …. and WAR backs that up FWIW.
Hernandez is available again. That is the clearest and available solution. I liked the O’Neill signing a lot, but in the context of him being the secondary righty power bat we brought in. I love him as a 7-hitter that is lengthening the lineup and the threats within it. We have interchanged this exact bat for years with a mid-level righty hitter with power (Renfroe, Duvall, Dalbec). You need these guys to be back of the lineup threats, not the primary threat. They simply aren’t consistent enough as pure hitters for that role.
I agree (right now). I place little value on Devers overall at that price tag. When he was a cheap controllable asset, I had no problem cringing every time someone hit him a baseball, or him being the third or fourth best hitter on the team. The guys we allowed to slip away from those great years to give Devers that monster contract was deflating. Duran has to show that this is him for years to really earn it.
Yeah, Hernandez is a bit better than O’Neill. But tough to find room in an outfield of Duran, Abreu, and Anthony, with Yoshida at DH. So somebody would need to go.
Once a player is signed, the price tag is no longer relevant. Devers remains one of the Red Sox top bats, and ought to remain so for several more years unless injuries take him down.
I would have preferred to keep Betts, but Bogaerts would have been a bad mistake. He is already just a shadow of his former self.
I agree Yoshida should be moved this winter. If the Sox eat half of his contract they should be able to move him somewhere in a deal. That roster spot is better used for a decent right handed hitter going forward.
If they pay off half of the money he’s owed then the Sox would wind up paying 63 million for two years of Yoshida.
I cannot see a single downside to the Yoshida signing. They wanted, and needed improved defense with additional power, and that is exactly what they got…………….and on the cheap side.
The only people that questioned this signing and its value was nearly everyone else in the league when the deal was signed. Boy, are they eating crow now. We are getting second basemen production out of our DH and people want to trade him already? SHAME ON YOU!!!!!!!
Yoshida for a thousand years!!!!!!
Yes, Yoshida is a huge part of the problem. By blocking the DH slot he pushes weak defensive players into the field. And with Devers and Casas as two of our better hitters, there aren’t THAT many places to slot a RHH power threat.
Biggest issue with this team — as you allude to with the rotation — is that they have too many guys who are average, too few real stars. The two easiest star-tier upgrades are a SP (an ace rather than simply resigning Pivetta) and a thumping RHH DH (in place of Yoshida). There are cheaper options to fill those needs, but cheaper options aren’t going to upgrade the roster to the degree necessary to make this team competitive.
And? It’s sunk costs either way. Continuing to carry him on the roster when he’s not a good fit is just compounding things.
I know I couldn’t have just read someone claiming Yoshida gives good defense and is on the cheap side…
Very much an underwater deal and lacks the pop you want out of a DH bat.
Yoshida is one of the best defensive DHs in the majors! Got to every ball hit his way at that position.
They fail to mention the biggest potential option at 2b. Campbell is close and could be the starter before the year is out. Grissom/Hamilton will probably be the solution until then.
The off-season plan? Simple: Full throttle Part 2.
It makes me think the full throttle quote was done to try to sell a few more Boston Gloves…
Like CLE, the Sox got away with having a relatively quiet offseason last winter. But I wouldn’t tempt fate again this winter. BOS has some very clear needs that should be addressed for them to take the next step, and while the rotation has been surprisingly good, it’s time to bring in an ace.
What did we get out of that? A similar record to last year?
tff – Top 9 draft pick if they lose today! LOL!!
I will never be a bigger Rays fan then 3:05 today. In yet another lost season it would be nice to get that draft participation trophy.
Give Cora a free hand with the pen and he”ll make sure that any lead Priester might leave with gets squandered.
william – I totally appreciate your stance, but personally I can’t do it …. can’t root for another team to beat my Sox, and I really do want Joe to go out a winner …. walkoff grand slam would be ideal.
tff – If it’s a blowout, how about this ….. how about Gasper pitches the 9th so his parents can be there to see his first MLB pitch. They deserve SOMETHING for all the games they’ve had to sit through.
Gasper’s parents can watch him in the minors, as that is where he belongs. Cruel but true.
I was rooting for the Sox. In a lost season I am rooting for them to climb slots in the draft, instead of falling slots because of 1 win or loss on a year we had zero chance of making the playoffs again. Of course I don’t want to see losses, but I get to see so many anyway. What was one more?
FPG- Bud, you have to admit I was nearly pinpoint accurate this whole off season about what they would do, what they got, the record, and the only way we wouldn’t be in last place. The Jays and Tampa would have to regress sharply. Rays got killed by injuries or they would have been a high 80’s to 90 win team. The Jays simply fell apart with nearly every single offensive player having a down year except Guerrero. As much as those teams with better pitching, defense endured with down years and injuries we were 1 and 6 games better.
william – Yes you certainly were! You’re one of my favorite posters because you have great insight, you really “get it”.
I did okay in my offseason speculation, I figured Tampa could possibly regress down to last place but I definitely did NOT expect Toronto to be this bad …. of course had I known Bo would miss most of the season, I’d have pegged them lower than 3rd place. You’re right though, their offense was down across the board with guys like Turner and Jansen having down years.
You probably heard the rumors of a couple Sox coaches getting canned, really think they need a new hitting coach.
The Sox didn’t get away with anything. The fans and media called them out, and nearly everyone knew this was a lost season on first pitch opening day. Everyone knew the glaring holes on that roster, and not a single one was addressed with an upgrade.
It;’s so funny tho.
It wasn’t off the cuff. It was also a statement that had no ambiguity to it. That statement made fans ecstatic when they were made and there was no attempt to walk it back it until the time came when people realized not a single blatant hole was filled on the roster, and we had just traded our ace. Going full throttle is so very different from anything other than going full throttle.
JOHN H and Sam K are content with mediocrity because our beloved Fenway generates enough $$ for them.
How could ownership go from being so loved to being so despised? This has nothing to do with championships and everything with the continued desire to compete. Winning championships? Nah. Only thing that matters is printing money…It used to be you spent to make but obviously John Henry found an easier way thanks to the suckers a/k/a Sox fans,
dewey – Let’s wait and see what this year’s revenue looks like when it comes out in April, I think Sox fans have definitely caught on.
Dewey, I feel the same way about my fellow Cubs fans, who seem to go to Wrigley more for the beer, women & ambiance than to watch winning baseball. That fills the coffers so that Ricketts doesn’t need to be concerned about winning.
If the Red Sox had the payroll capacity like 5 years ago, I think they would resign O’Neill and Danny, sign fried to balance the rotation and maybe resign kenley for one more year
But this is 2024 so the Red Sox have to keep their profits just like every company
Argh if 2019 was now I’d be richhhh
sad – What could you possibly see in Danny Jansen that warrants bringing him back? He’s basically a thinner taller version of Vazquez.
@ Fever
Jansen has had a down year, especially since getting to Boston. Prior to that, he was one of the best power hitting catchers in the league (by rate stats). Last year he had 17 HR in only 268 ab’s. His biggest issue was staying healthy. If he can get back to his normal form, he’d be highly valuable.
Canuck – Why do you think Danny has been so bad this year? It’s not because of injuries.
They need 2 high end starters. They have to upgrade, and it has to be clear upgrades. For some unfathomable reason some people are talking about Giolito like he is an answer returning. He may be (long shot). But if he is, I would rather him win comeback player of the year as our number 3 and not the best of the mid tier pitcher pile. Get the 1 and 2. Hope Giolito is solid and healthy. Fill out the last two spots, and either fill the bullpen with upgrades or jettison the contracts to clear money for those upgrades.
William – Last offseason the Sox also needed two high end starters.
Ironically instead of adding two, they subtracted one :O(
I want to trade Yoshida for a reliever and have Mayer spend the winter and spring training learning 3B and move Raffy to a full time DH role. I’m also open to moving Duran for a young controllable starter with ace potential. Roman Anthony will be up by June next year.
I think Red Sox would prefer dumping abreu instead of duran since abreu can’t hit against lefty’s and Duran is their lead off hitter (unless Rafaela lives up to the hype but he looks like a defense first guy so far)
Red Sox and mariners could line up a trade… that would be interesting…
I have seen absolutely nothing to make me think Rafaela is going to be a long term solution as a starting player long term. There are just so many flaws in his hitting approach, and he just doesn’t have enough of the offensive power or OBP to justify him playing every day. If I were evaluating him, I would already be grooming him as a super utility player and looking to see how I can upgrade at his spot with a pure hitter with power to stretch the lineup and add protection for Devers.
william – My biggest fear is Rafaela and his .661 OPS will be in the lineup every day for the next 7 years only because of his versatility.
Hopefully he will mature and improve.
If he doesn’t improve, he ends up as a bench player. I see their OF as Abreu, Duran, and Anthony next year, with Story at SS, so his days as a bench player perhaps begin now? He will need to improve his offense to earn more than 300 PA.
He is the super utility guy you dream of as a manager, if he can figure out that the plate is only 17″s wide and doesn’t start in the middle of the lefty hitter’s box. He should also be reminded that swinging uncontrollably for power when your 5’9″ and 165 pounds is probably less effective than taking a controlled short swing with the purpose of placing the ball in play. He bats like an *sshole.
tff – Agree with you on being a bench player, but not next season ….. he might play 2B or OF, but he will play every day unless he really implodes …. and then he would probably be sent down. With that contract, he needs to play regularly every day.
william – The million dollar question, is Cora & Fatso allowing him to swing at everything as hard as he can?
Or is he doing it on his own, and Cora & Fatso want to put a stop to it but can’t?
Can’t believe they could be paying $6M a year for a utility player.
I disagree, I expect the better bats (Grissom, Campbell, Anthony) to grab the PT and not let go.
Decent utility players can get up to $10M, so I don’t think the contract is a problem. I do expect his offense to improve with experience, just don’t want to promise anything tomorrow.
The Idea of a super Utility guy is that they are usually in a lot of games. A lot. They tend to get 400+ at bats because they are basically platooning every game against the other handed pitcher and filling in for extended injury time and rest days.
Exactly! Very few everyday players in this day and age. One injury after another, and a lot of guys who benefit from platooning.
I don’t think you need to lock Rafaela into a single position to get him 400+ AB, and he would be an upgrade both defensively and offensively over some of the clowns we’ve seen filling in the last few years.
tff – I’m all for 400 PA’s if it means not having over 570 PA’s like he did this year!
But let’s say Anthony, Mayer and Campbell turn out to be studs in the majors and Story, Duran and Abreu stay healthy …. where’s Rafaela gonna get even 400 PA’s?
Simple answer is they won’t all play 162.
But if they somehow do, and all perform well, I’m not going to cry about Rafaela losing PT.
I’d be readier for a trade once they’ve broken in the prospects, filled the 2B problem and the gap left by O’Neill. Let’s see how things look then?
FPG- That is a problem you want. BTW, the bonus of having a guy be a super utility guy is that they aren’t worth much when the time comes. It is a category that rarely sees over inflated FA value.
We know he can field adequately in the infield to fill in, and above average in the outfield. The way the game is run these days the benches are being played in far more games and at bats then I have ever seen. The Red Sox are obsessive about versatility and depth. The problem is they aren’t obsessed with finding talent that demands by production to play every day, and quality in that depth.
william – My definition of a super-utility guy is somebody who can play several positions and not be an automatic out. Games are lost just as frequently, if not more, at the plate. In my view, he needs to put up at least a .700 OPS to warrant being in the lineup. And I’m not even bringing in the mental errors, the poor judgement (10 CS in 29 attempts is ridiculous), or the lack of focus. He needs a LOT of improvement in many areas, great athletes don’t always make for great or even good players.
Guess when was the last time Rafaela walked?
August 9th … I kid you not.
From August 10th to the end of the season he batted .214 with a .225 OBP and just a .547 OPS …. zero walks in 142 PA’s.
No matter how versatile he is, those are really scary numbers for a guy who they just invested $50M in ….. a guy they are currently paying 5 times (AAV) what he would have earned without the extension.
Should the remaining $42M on his contract hamstring a team with the 4th-highest revenue in MLB? No ….but as we all know, if the Sox continue to operate like greedy cheapskates then Rafaela’s contract could drag down the team for years to come.
Not sure where you are getting those salary numbers, Fever?
In a league where Harrison Bader gets $10M/year, it isn’t ridiculous for Rafaela to earn $20M for his six arbitration years and another $20M for the two years of free agency that were bought out – even if Rafaela doesn’t improve. Bader got around $14M prior to free agency, and salaries continue to rise (along with revenues).
The hope of course is that Rafaela will some day be a better player than Bader. If he never learns how to hit then the contract will be mildly disappointing. But most players don’t peak at the age of 23, so it is reasonable to expect that he has upside on that.
The deal will be made or broken by his performance in the two free agency years. They weren’t ever going to release him anyways, and the uncertainty in his arbitration earnings is relatively small. Rafaela needs to be a $15M player in those two arbitration years for the deal to work out for the Red Sox.
I would take the other bad contract in a second if it means Devers being a full time DH and being forced to replace him at third with a legitimate MLB fielder with some hit tools.
Ideally, with lots of luck, it would be best to have some combo of Mayers, Story and Grissom working.
The only promise that rotation holds is the promise to miss the playoffs yet again. There’s no way Ebeneezer Henry allows Breslow to spend what it’ll take to actually make the rotation a strength
They have needed pitching for years. I’ve never seen such an obvious fix being ignored for so long.
As a CLE fan the FO refused to meaningfully address their need for a righty corner OF bat for years until finally trading for Lane Thomas at the deadline this year, so I get where you’re coming from.
Any trade that involves Duran is a loser. He was one of the 10 best players in baseball this year. You can’t replace that, especially when you won’t spend money.
Duran doesn’t fit Henry’s “image” and I always got the feeling Cora has never been a big fan of Jarren, in spite of what he may publicly say.
Lol you couldn’t be more off about how Cora and the organization view Duran. Cora has 1,000 quotes about how he wished everyone worked as hard as he did.
If they want a #1 starter that doesn’t cost 30M a year then they have to give up either Duran or Casas. They seem to have better replacements available in the outfield than at first base.
Times sure have changed, and not for the better if you ask me. We didn’t need a ‘Chief Baseball Officer’ to tell us who could play second base. You just threw a guy out there and told him to figure it out, or he’d be ridin’ the rails by sundown.
FPG.. saw you post on home grown pitchers… nice to see the possibility of some developed talent on the mound… saw hurst/ Clemens/ nipper/ but what about my guy oil can?? I could swear he had a couple of 200 innings years/ 30 starts.. was he with that trio?? 86?? I’ll hang up and listen as usual…
olm – That’s a great question! Can was injured that year (1987) and therefore had only 7 starts.
He did have 30+ starts in 1985-1986 though ;O)
“The Red Sox lost to the Blue Jays tonight, minutes after wins by the Royals and Tigers. That officially eliminated Boston from playoff contention…”
Gosh, so close–just minutes after! Imagine if they had lost BEFORE the Royals and Tigers games, or a full hour or two afterwards!
What a difference that would have made in the future of the Red Sox!
lester – And the Red Sox lost 20-7 to the lowly Rockies just minutes after Cora signed his contract extension. LOLOL!!
They were too busy feeling the “joy”.
let – Yeah and Cora didn’t care because he got paid.
Just a coincidence the team collapsed immediately after the extension was being finalized? Having watched Cora’s interviews closely during the first half and second half, there’s a noticeable difference. He’s as arrogant and cocky as ever now.
The other day the NESN guys asked him why he changed his approach from 2018 and 2019, going from way too much resting of players to letting them play a lot more ….. he said it’s because the 2018-2019 teams were expected to win, but this year’s team he didn’t expect to contend for the postseason. Talk about arrogance …. leopards never change their spots.
Fever, if a manager “doesn’t expect” his team to contend, the manager needs to be replaced.
* Sox’
I’ll believe it when I see it with Breslow after the “Full Throttle” BS last year. They need a solid starter at the top of the pitching staff. Whitlock should be in the bullpen with a closer competition between him and Martin. I think Jensen is gone. O’Neill is good but he must have hit a lot of solo homers last year attributed to the low RBI total. Not sure if he comes back. Can you imagine if they had signed Aaron Judge last year and his homerun total at Boston. This year depends if the are going to spend money on starting pitching, good relievers and hitting. Please get a second baseman who can hit. Anyway I’ll believe it when I see it. Wake me up if the Red Sox do anything major in the offseason and not the buy low and high potential guys we usually pick up with Bloom and Breslow philosophies.
The Sox need two high end starters. A clear 1 and 2. It is important for this team to upgrade their rotation, but it is just as vital for them to kick two starters out of the rotation into the bullpen so they can jettison 2 of the least productive pitchers off the roster. Getting 2 high end pitchers will have a cascading effect that helps everywhere with their pitching staff (except the elite lefty reliever they have been lacking for more then a decade).
Boston please resign Danny Jansen so the Blue Jays don’t do something stupid like try bringing him back to Toronto.
Anthony Franco is my favorite writer on this website by far. Love his style detail and opinions. I think this is the first time in years that I’ve had a disagreement come to mind.
“”There’s a good chance the 29-year-old left fielder would accept a one-year offer worth more than $21MM””
There’s not a single chance in the entire universe known and unknown that Tyler O’Neill comes back to the red sox. Not on a one-year deal not on a four year deal not on a 10-year deal and not on a spring training invite. He is 100% gone.
Why?
Here’s a quote from him around the deadline: “I don’t know how it’s going to go. I’d love to stay here the rest of the season, possibly beyond if that’s what they want. But we’ll see. Again, it’s a business, so time will tell on that.”
I think another team will come up with years and money. Number two I think the Red Sox have a truckload of dudes lining up for outfield spots that are young and ready to go. It’s not necessary to bring Tyler O’Neill back and it’s not necessarily to bring anyone from the outside into the fold unless they are a Masher who is consistent. Just my opinion but there’s no way O’Neill comes back.
Thanks – I agree with those points. The way that I read the message initially had me thinking that O’Neill indicated that he didn’t want to be back in Boston.
Gary – Agreed! There’s a chance the Sox could gamble Tyler would decline a QO, but I don’t think Boras will allow having him accept it.
I think O’Neill gets a Turner type contract from some other team, 2-year deal with an opt out after the first year.
The only position player the Red Sox would consider adding is a Masher for the Outfield. Yes Tyler O’Neill filled the Gap this year but he can’t stay healthy. I’m talking about someone reliable who will stay in the lineup. It won’t be a free agent signing either. Red Sox have way too many outfielders ready to go for 2025.
I’m of the opinion though it’s not popular, that you trade Jaren Duran right now while he’s at the top. You get a young starting pitcher and maybe a Masher for the Outfield by throwing in six or seven of those extra second baseman. Tongue in cheek of course.
Red Sox need pitching and more pitching. That’s where the concentration in the offseason should be.
Rooker? He’s more of a DH, of course.
The A’s are reluctant to trade him. Club control three more years? It would take a lot to get him I think, even though he only has two years of Big League success.
I think the lineup imbalances and starting pitching can be solved at least for 2025 with a couple of moves.
Sign Alex Bregman
Re-sign Tyler O’Neill
Trade Triston Casas for George Kirby
Trade Masataka Yoshida for bullpen arm
The hitters and starting pitching would look like this.
C Connor Wong (R)
1B Rafael Devers (L)
2B Vaughn Grissom (R)
SS Trevor Story (R)
3B Alex Bregman (R) (free agent signing)
RF Wilyer Abreu (L)
CF Ceddanne Rafaela (R)
LF Juran Duran (L)
DH Tyler O’Neil (R)
SP Lucas Giolito
SP George Kirby (trade w/ Seattle for Casas)
SP Bryan Bello
SP Tanner Houck
SP Cutter Krawford
Casas trade allows Devers to move to 1B. That would remove a left handed bat in Casas, improve the defense by moving Devers out of 3B. Having Bregman at 3B will improve the defense. Re-signing O’Neill and making him the primary DH and 4th outfielder would be better than Yoshida. Kirby as a starter would be good with Giolito coming back. Reassess at the trade deadline.
Just my opinion but this lineup looks way too much like the ’24 lineup. I think O’Neill is gone Duran is gone and more than just one new starting pitcher coming in.
Absolute NO on Alex bregman coming also. If they’re going to spend money they’ll do it for starting pitching. Maybe some Bullpen arms also.
The Red Sox are loaded on the field with their current roster plus youth coming up. They don’t need to sign a free agent third baseman for 30 million dollars a year or whatever the dollars will be. Not going to happen.
By design, 2025 is a bridge year to SS Mayer (L), CF Anthony (L), C Teel (L) and 2B Campbell (R).
Bregman improves the defense at 3B, gives the Red Sox a needed right handed bat to help balance the lineup and gives them consistent offense. Bringing back O’Neill also helps balance the lineup and gives them some power and protection for Devers. I don’t foresee the Red Sox spending big money on Burnes/Fried/Snell/Flaherty in free agency. IMO, starting pitching will come via trade… that’s where moving Casas comes in. Seattle appears to be a match with a surplus of young starters and a need for a 1B. Someone like Kirby and then having Giolito back should improve the starting pitching.
At the trade deadline, if Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Teel are ready… the Sox could look to flip Grissom if he has value and Duran for additional pitching.
2026
C Teel (L)
1B Devers (L)
2B Campbell (R)
SS Mayer (L)
3B Bregman (R)
LF O’Neill (R)
CF Anthony (L)
RF Abreu (L)
DH Story (R)
SP Kirby
SP Bello
SP Houck
SP Crawford
SP ??? (from Duran trade)
I hope the theme song for the Red Sox “Netflix” show is Pretenders’ “Middle of the Road.”
I don’t get why everyone wants to trade Duran or Casas? Basically you know what you have with them. No one says anything about trading one of the prospects . Mayer especially gets over hyped aka ( Yoan Moncada ). Who really knows what some of these prospects are going to be. It wasn’t that long back when they were pushing Blake Swiehart as the best thing.
It’s because the Red Sox need Frontline pitching. Verifying your point, you’re not going to get Frontline pitching for minor Leaguers of promise, unless you give up four of them. Sox are not doing that so Duran is the smart move. Sell high. Tout him as MVP candidate etc.
Gary I understand they need frontline pitching . They also need some bats . I don’t have faith in Breslow trading. What was the point in paying 17 million of Sales contract for Grissom? If Mayer is what they say and they are stuck with Story. What was the need for Grissom?
If you look at Grissom’s minor league numbers from 2023, he is a similarly talented prospect to Campbell. (And at the time, Campbell wasn’t even on the radar.) None of the other alternatives (Yorke, Meidroth) are likely to be quality starters.
Grissom had less than a year of service time, so it was a trade of ONE year of Sale for six years of Grissom. And for the first three of those, Grissom will be paid at the ML minimum.
If Grissom is a bust, then the trade doesn’t work out. But if Grissom develops into a.solid first division starter, a three win player, then they get more value from Grissom than they would have from Sale – even with the Red Sox eating Sale’s salary. Tough that he was ill/injured this year, but the trade itself wasn’t ridiculous and could still work out for both sides.
BTW, Mayer (like Grissom) is just a prospect, not yet a sure thing. While he is considered a good prospect, it is too early to annoint him the future. And given his injuries this year, the future could easily be pushed back to 2026.
Not sure the Red Sox can count on Story either, given all the injuries.
tff17: Great points about Grissom. Also, he may have been the best or only offer they got for Sale.
Clay: I agree 100%. Way too early to judge. Grissom might have a great career or be traded for someone valuable.
Thumbs up on this Clay. It was ONE year of Sale and he had how many years of injuries and inconsistency. His value was down so far we paid half the money owed to him. Good post.
For every Moncada and Swihart and Brian Rose, you could also have a Betts and Boegaerts and Lester… Most good players were prospects before. No one knows which ones will be good to great. I’d prefer to keep Mayer because he is an athletic middle infielder that could transition to multiple positions if needed. Casas is a 1B or DH, that’s it. We all know Devers will eventually move away from 3B… I say move him to 1B now… and get some value from Casas as a trade chip.
I believe Mayer would be a good fit at 3b…
George: Agreed about prospects. I’m not convinced Devers would be good defensively at first base. I’m not sure he will handle bad throws.
Yes that and I think the Red Sox really like Tristan Casas a lot. Not sure he’s on the Block as a trade candidate to improve the team. For some reason they’re enamored with him beyond what is visible today in the box score and on the field.
Gary: Agreed. I think Casas may have some MVP caliber seasons in his future. I want to keep him.
Yes Clay, the items you mention are great reasons to like him. But I think the Red Sox like him BEYOND those numbers and value him BEYOND the things you state. Get it?
I see Casas as a trade candidate based on: 1) the need to balance the left heavy lineup which will get more left heavy with the young prospects coming, 2) he has some value to bring back value, 3) he’s limited to 1B/DH defensively, 4) Devers needs to move from 3B and 1B/DH are the logical landing spots. Duran to me is more valuable than Casas because of his defensive versatility.
Actually, it;’s pretty clear the Red sox aren’t that enamored with a lot of his antics. The reason he is valued is that he performs.
Yeah, I mean, I’d go with that other than someone on his couch guessing that they value him BEYOND his play
That’s my point. I don’t know what those reasons are.
For some reason means I don’t know. Get it?
I understand that YOU are saying the numbers are enough to like him. Great, I respect your post and your opinion and it’s all good.
Also, Casas hasn’t wanted to sign an extension. Another reason I think he’s more likely to be moved for pitching.
Abreu, Crawford, Valdez and Zanetello for Garret Crochet.
Resign Tyler Oniell, Chris Martin.
Casas, Yoshida, Yoelin Cespedes & Mikey Romero to Seattle for George Kirby and Andres Munoz
Sign Walker Buehler to 1 year deal.
Whitlock to pen…. he is not a starter.
Rotation:
1. Kirby
2. Crochett
3 Houck
4 Bello
5. Buehler
6. Giolito
7. Fitts
8 Priester
Lineup:
1. Duran LF
2. Storey SS
3. Devers 1B
4. Oniell DH
5 Anthony RF
6 Wong/Teel C
7 Campbell 3B
8 Grissom 2B
9.Rafaela CF
Bench:
Hamilton
Romy G
Teel/Wong
Chase Meidroth or Sogard
Bring up Mayer when ready.
BP Slaten, Whitlock, Penrod, Murphy, Kelly, Guerrero, Martin, Hendricks and CP Munoz.
Eating a good chunk of Yoshida’s contract will be necessary. if any hope of moving him exists.