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Cardinals Among Teams To Inquire On Marlins’ Starters

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The Cardinals and Marlins have held “at least preliminary” discussions regarding Miami’s bevy of young starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Rosenthal suggests that St. Louis is a nice fit for Pablo Lopez, although on paper, it’s easy enough to make a case for just about any of the Marlins’ available starters as a fit in St. Louis. Each of Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera has seen his name surface in trade chatter recently. Miami, however, doesn’t seem to have any plans to deal ace Sandy Alcantara, whom the Cardinals actually traded to the Fish alongside Zac Gallen in the deal that sent Marcell Ozuna from Miami to St. Louis.

The Cardinals have a solid-looking rotation on the surface, with each of Jordan Montgomery, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty likely to slot into the starting five. Depth options behind the group include Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Andre Pallante, although the latter two did well in a bullpen setting in 2022. Further down the line are prospects Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevy and Tink Hence, although none of that group is on the 40-man roster just yet.

All that said, however, the Cards could lose nearly their entire rotation after the season. Wainwright is set to retire, while each of Mikolas, Montgomery and Flaherty are free agents next winter. Only Matz, whose four-year contract covers the 2022-25 seasons, is signed or controlled beyond the current season.

In that sense, there’s good reason for the Cards to pursue a starter who can be controlled through at least the 2024 season. There’s surely some internal hope that someone like Liberatore, Graceffo or McGreevy can step up and seize a rotation spot when an opportunity inevitably presents itself this season, but that’s a lot to bank on. And, even if that happens, the Cards would still be looking at multiple rotation spots they need to fill next offseason — perhaps as many as three.

Lopez, 27 in March, has a 3.52 ERA over his past 340 big league innings and is arbitration-eligible through the 2024 campaign. Luzardo, even younger at 25, enjoyed a nice bounceback year in 2022 when he notched a 3.32 ERA and 30% strikeout rate, but a forearm injury limited him to just 100 1/3 innings. He’s under team control through 2026. That’s the same amount of club control as the 25-year-old Rogers, a 2021 Rookie of the Year finalist who stumbled to a 5.47 ERA in 107 frames in 2022, his second full MLB campaign. The 24-year-old Cabrera, meanwhile, has six full years of club control remaining and notched a 3.01 ERA in 71 2/3 innings in 2022.

None of that bunch is expensive, with Lopez’s $5.45MM salary leading the way. Finances shouldn’t play a major consideration for the Cardinals anyhow; they’re on pace to roughly match last year’s $163MM payroll, and president of baseball ops John Mozeliak had previously indicated the ability to increase payroll. From Miami’s vantage point, their projected $103MM payroll would be the second-highest mark in club history.

The Marlins are known to be seeking improvements to their lineup and have been prioritizing center field and catcher dating back to last offseason. Miami swung a trade for Pittsburgh catcher Jacob Stallings prior to the 2022 season but saw the former Gold Glove winner turn in a disappointing .233/.292/.292 batting line while his typically high-end defensive grades also cratered. Center field remains an unaddressed need, and Miami again appears likely to take someone better suited for a corner (Bryan De La Cruz) and hope for the best this season.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are deep in outfielders with Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar likely lined up left-to-right at the MLB level. (Rosenthal suggests that of the bunch, Nootbaar is the least likely to change hands.) Top prospect Jordan Walker, who’s likely all but off limits in trade talks, looms behind that group. Alec Burleson, meanwhile, has already gotten some MLB experience, and fellow outfielder Moises Gomez posted big numbers in the upper minors. Behind the plate, the Cards have well-regarded catching prospect Ivan Herrera, who doesn’t exactly have a clear path to a regular role now that Willson Contreras has been signed to a five-year deal.

Certainly, the Cards and Marlins seem to have aligning needs that could lead to a trade, but there’s also no indication that talks are particularly heated. Miami has likely discussed its available starters with more than half the league, given the dearth of viable big league options elsewhere on the trade market. Even the Cards and Marlins themselves don’t know whether a deal will ultimately come together at this juncture, but it’s nevertheless of some note that the two parties have at least held some surface-level talks.

Central Notes: O’Neill, Paddack, Madrigal

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Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill missed almost a month in the middle of this season, from mid-June to mid-July, due to a left hamstring strain. He went back on the IL September 17 due to the same injury, a left hamstring strain. At the time, it was reported as a Grade 1 strain, which is the less-serious variety. Regardless, over a week later, an O’Neill return doesn’t seem close.

Team president John Mozeliak was asked about the possibility of O’Neill returning in the postseason and had this to say, per Jim Hayes of Bally Sports Midwest: “I think there’s a shot, but obviously the clock is ticking.” That doesn’t seem to indicate the Cards are banking on a return. The club has now clinched the NL Central but are seven games behind the Mets and Braves, who are tied atop the East, and even further behind the Dodgers. That means they are destined to play in the first round of the playoffs against whoever finishes with the third Wild Card spot. Each round that they survive will increase the chances of O’Neill coming back, but he wouldn’t be able to find a rehab stint with the minor league seasons winding down. Even if he’s healthy, the Cards would have to view a rusty O’Neill as a better option than their current outfielders in order for him to get a shot.

O’Neill had a career year last year by hitting 34 home runs and swiping 15 bases on his way to producing 5.6 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. This year, various injuries have limited him to just 96 games and diminished production when on the field, with his .286/.352/.560 batting line from last year slipping to .228/.308/.392. Without him in the mix, the St. Louis outfield is currently composed of Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson, Corey Dickerson, Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson and Ben DeLuzio.

More notes from the Central divisions…

  • Twins right-hander Chris Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery in May and is now targeting an August 2023 return, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. The surgery usually comes with a 12-18 month recovery window, but this is the second such procedure of Paddack’s career, having previously gone under the knife as a prospect in 2016. Paddack tells Park that the second recovery is going to take a bit longer, meaning the narrow end of the typical recovery window is closed. Since the best-case scenario involves Paddack missing the bulk of next year, the club will have to plan on building a rotation without him. He was just one of several Twins who missed significant time with injury this year, preventing them from hanging onto the AL Central lead that they held for a good chunk of the year. On paper, the 2023 rotation in Minnesota consists of Sonny Gray, who is sure to have his option exercised, alongside Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober for four slots. Kenta Maeda could be a factor for the fifth, though he’ll be an unknown quantity after missing all of this year recovering from his own Tommy John surgery of the internal brace variety. Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer both have options that are unlikely to be exercised, subtracting them from the equation. The club could look for outside help given the uncertainty around Maeda, though they will also have internal options like Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Cole Sands, Jordan Balazovic, Devin Smeltzer and Simeon Woods Richardson, with Paddack hopefully joining them down the stretch.
  • Cubs infielder Nick Madrigal is on the injured list and won’t be returning this season, manager David Ross tells Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. Madrigal landed on the shelf September 10 due to a groin strain, his second groin-related trip to the IL this year. It’s the second straight injury-marred campaign for him, after he was limited to 54 games in 2021 and just 59 here in 2022. He hit .305/.349/.425 last year but saw that line dip to .249/.305/.282 in this campaign. He came into this season with one year and 164 days of MLB service time, meaning he’s a lock to reach arbitration as a Super Two player this winter, though he likely won’t earn a huge raise given all the time he’s missed. The Cubs aren’t likely to be competitive in 2023 but will still want to see Madrigal show better results in order to keep him in their plans going forward.

Cardinals Place Tyler O’Neill On IL With Hamstring Strain

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The Cardinals announced some roster moves prior to today’s doubleheader, with right-hander Dakota Hudson coming up as the “29th man.” Additionally, outfielders Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill are swapping places, with Carlson coming off the IL and O’Neill heading onto it due to a left hamstring strain.

The injury to O’Neill is a bit ominous it was a left hamstring strain that sent him to the IL for about a month earlier this year. An injury of similar severity would keep him out of action until mid-October, but O’Neill seems optimistic that won’t be the case. John Denton of MLB.com relays word from the outfielder that it’s a Grade 1 strain, which is the lesser kind. Perhaps O’Neill can avoid a lengthy absence, though he will miss at least the next ten days. With just over two weeks remaining on the schedule, anything beyond a minimum stint will make it difficult to return during the regular season.

Of course, the Cardinals are a virtual lock to play in the playoffs, since they are 7.5 games ahead of the Brewers in the NL Central. A deep postseason run would give O’Neill more time to return to the field and get back into a groove, though the Cards will likely have to play the first round of the playoffs. This year, the top two division winners get a bye past the Wild Card round, but the Cardinals are well back of the Dodgers and 5.5 games behind the East-leading Mets.

O’Neill’s campaign got off to a rough start, though he righted the ship a bit recently. Before going on the IL in June, he was hitting just .241/.292/.361, but has hit a much better .214/.323/.423 since returning. The combined batting line amounts to a 100 wRC+, exactly league average, though O’Neill has accrued 1.2 wins above replacement thanks to his baserunning and defense, in the eyes of FanGraphs. With O’Neill out, Carlson will step into the outfield mix and try to keep the club from missing a beat. He has also spent some time on the IL this year, going on the shelf once due to a hamstring strain and then a thumb sprain. He’s hitting just a hair above league average overall, as his .240/.316/.386 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 101. Thanks to strong work in center field, he’s produced 2.3 fWAR in 112 games. He will likely get regular work up the middle, flanked by Corey Dickerson and Lars Nootbaar.

Cardinals Notes: O’Neill, Bader, Molina

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The Cardinals activated Corey Dickerson from the 15-day injured list earlier today, but it will still be a while before the St. Louis outfield is back at full strength.  Tyler O’Neill was expected to be reinstated from his own IL stint this weekend, but the Gold Glover (sidelined since June 20 due to a hamstring strain) is now dealing with a bruised right wrist after being hit by a pitch in a minor league rehab game on Wednesday.

“There’s definitely some serious inflammation in there,” O’Neill told reporters, including Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  “At least there was [Thursday] but it’s gone down a good bit.  The next 48 to 72 hours are going to be key for me.”

O’Neill remained in the game after being hit, and while he will undergo more tests on his wrist, initial x-rays were negative.  Even if the wrist problem does end up being relatively minor, it still represents another setback in an injury-plagued year for O’Neill, who has played in only 45 games due to his hamstring injury and a previous shoulder problem that also required a visit to the injured list.  O’Neill has hit only .241/.292/.361 over 185 plate appearances, a big step backwards after his breakout 2021 campaign.

Harrison Bader’s return is also questionable, as manager Oliver Marmol told reporters (including MLB.com’s John Denton) today that Bader likely wouldn’t return from the IL until after the All-Star break.  Bader has already missed more than the minimum 10 days due to plantar fasciitis, and while he is participating in some “light baseball drills,” the outfielder is wearing a protective walking boot when not training.

Bader “needs to be close to it where he feels like he can explode, hold his back side when he’s hitting and not feeling like he’s compromised defensively,” Marmol said.  “The heel is still grabbing at him.  Not nearly as much, but if he ramps up, he might be back at ground zero.”

Without Bader and O’Neill, Dylan Carlson is the only player remaining from the Cardinals’ first-choice starting outfield.  Dickerson’s return will help fill the void, and the emergence of rookies Brendan Donovan and Juan Yepez has allowed the Cards to further make up for those lost regulars.  However, St. Louis was certainly for O’Neill to perhaps help spark a struggling lineup, as the Cardinals have been shut out four times in their past seven games (including today’s 1-0 loss to the Phillies).

Yadier Molina is another missing regular, as the catcher went on the IL due to knee soreness in mid-June.  In the latest update on Molina’s condition, Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including the Belleville News-Democrat’s Jeff Jones) that Molina isn’t yet ready to start baseball activities, though the catcher did say he is making some progress.

Cardinals Notes: O’Neill, Dickerson, Hicks, Thompson

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Tyler O’Neill is back on the injured list, as the club put him on the 10-day IL before this evening’s contest with the Brewers due to a left hamstring strain. Lars Nootbaar was recalled from Triple-A Memphis to take his place on the active roster, while utilityman Brendan Donovan kicked out to left field for tonight’s game.

The team didn’t provide a timetable for O’Neill’s recovery. It’s the latest in what has been a very disappointing season for the slugging outfielder. He lost a couple weeks in May battling a right shoulder impingement, and he’s not been as productive as anticipated even when healthy. Through 185 plate appearances on the season, the 26-year-old (27 on Wednesday) owns a .241/.292/.361 slash with only four home runs. That’s on the heels of a 34-homer campaign, and O’Neill’s had a rather startling dip in batted ball quality (barrel rate, hard contact rate, etc.) to go along with the lesser results.

Donovan figures to step in fairly regularly in left in O’Neill’s absence. The lefty-hitting rookie has a .315/.424/.434 mark through 170 plate appearances. That relatively quiet excellence has earned him a spot in the regular batting order, although manager Oli Marmol has had to shuffle Donovan around the diamond with Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, Tommy Edman and Nolan Arenado serving as the primary infield.

Nootbaar and the righty-hitting Juan Yepez will likely also cycle through the corner outfield and designated hitter. Veteran Corey Dickerson was signed to a one-year deal over the offseason to play a similar role, but he’s been out for a couple weeks with a calf strain. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that Dickerson felt continued discomfort after a rehab appearance in Memphis last Thursday, causing him to transition to non-game activities for a few days. The hope is he could resume the rehab stint as soon as tomorrow.

Dickerson would be joined by Jordan Hicks, who is set to start a rehab assignment of his own there tomorrow (relayed by Katie Woo of the Athletic). Hicks has missed the past three weeks with a forearm strain in his throwing arm, the latest issue for a pitcher who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019 and missed two months with elbow inflammation last season. It’s a welcome development that Hicks is set to return to the mound in relatively short order this time around.

Woo adds that the club is planning to deploy Hicks out of the bullpen. The flamethrowing righty worked exclusively in relief for the first few seasons of his major league career, spending a chunk of the 2018-19 seasons as the club’s closer. He surprisingly lengthened out into a starter this year and cracked the season-opening rotation, making his first seven big league starts (in nine outings) before landing on the IL.

Hicks had a rough showing in that role, though, posting a 5.02 ERA through 28 2/3 innings. He’s struck out a decent 23% of opponents while racking up grounders on more than half the batted balls against him, but he’s also struggled significantly to throw strikes. Hicks walked almost 16% of batters faced, and the club seems set to transition him back to his more familiar relief role.

That could suggest Andre Pallante is ticketed for a longer look in the rotation. The rookie right-hander opened the season in the bullpen, but he’s started three of his four most recent appearances. Pallante, who started in college and in the minor leagues, reached 5 2/3 innings yesterday against the Red Sox — suggesting the Cards are comfortable with him turning lineups over at least twice in an outing.

The rest of the starting staff is established, with Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson and Adam Wainwright making a strong top four. Offseason signee Steven Matz is on the IL with a shoulder injury, but Pallante seems to be settling into the #5 role. Former first-round pick Zack Thompson is also on the active roster and has worked as a starter this season with Memphis, but it appears the club views him as a primary relief option at the major league level for now. Marmol indicated this afternoon that Thompson could see more higher-leverage work moving forward (via John Denton of MLB.com).

NL Central Notes: Minor, Woodruff, Suzuki, Miley, O’Neill

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Mike Minor is finally set for his 2022 debut, as Reds manager David Bell told reporters that the veteran southpaw is scheduled to start Cincinnati’s game on Friday against the Nationals.  Acquired in a trade with the Royals in March, Minor developed some shoulder issues during Spring Training and then had a setback in his rehab process in April.  However, with four outings completed in his rehab assignment, Minor is ready to take the hill and participate in what will be his 11th Major League season.

More injury updates from around the NL Central…

  • Brandon Woodruff left Friday’s game prior to the fifth inning due to right ankle irritation, though both Woodruff and Brewers manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) that the problem may not be serious enough to keep the right-hander from making his next start on Wednesday.  With Freddy Peralta already on the injured list and the rotation further stretched by a doubleheader on Monday, losing Woodruff for even one outing would be a setback for the Brewers, though the club obviously isn’t going to risk pushing the right-hander if he isn’t ready.
  • Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki suffered a sprained left ring finger in Thursday’s game, which kept him out of the lineup yesterday.  It isn’t yet clear whether or not Suzuki will require a visit to the 10-day IL, as Suzuki indicated to reporters (including NBC Sports’ Gordon Wittenmyer) that his finger was feeling only a little better.  Suzuki has a solid .245/.344/.432 slash line in his first 163 MLB plate appearances, though he has cooled off considerably after a great start.
  • The Cubs are also monitoring Wade Miley, whose start yesterday was scratched due to shoulder soreness.  There is some hope Miley will be able to start one of the games in Monday’s doubleheader, but that will depend on how he fares after a long-toss session today.  Miley has only made three starts this season, as some elbow inflammation arose during Spring Training and delayed his Chicago debut until May 10.
  • Tyler O’Neill received a cortisone shot in his right shoulder after additional testing revealed some fluid buildup, the Cardinals outfielder told reporters (including Jeff Jones of The Belleville News-Democrat).  O’Neill has been on the 10-day IL since May 20 due to a shoulder impingement, and after some rest, he hopes to begin a rehab assignment sometime this week.  After what appeared to be a breakout 2021 season, O’Neill has slumped out of the gate this year, slashing just .195/.256/.297 over 133 plate appearances.

Cardinals To Promote Nolan Gorman, Matthew Liberatore; Tyler O’Neill To IL

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There’s a momentous roster shakeup in St. Louis, as the Cardinals are set to welcome two of the game’s top prospects to the big leagues in the coming days. As first reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter links), the team has promoted both Nolan Gorman and Matthew Liberatore for this weekend’s series against the Pirates. Katie Woo of the Athletic tweets that outfielder Tyler O’Neill is headed to the 10-day injured list because of a right shoulder impingement in one corresponding roster move.

According to Goold, Gorman will be in tomorrow’s starting lineup at second base. That figures to be his primary role moving forward, with Gold Glove second baseman Tommy Edman kicked to the other side of the bag. Edman has been excellent this season, but the Cards haven’t gotten much production out of their shortstops. Paul DeJong struggled enough the team optioned him to Triple-A Memphis last week, seemingly setting the stage for a forthcoming Gorman promotion.

That’s not to say the Cardinals hastily promoted Gorman to compensate for struggles at the major league level — far from it. The left-handed hitter has forced his way to the majors with an incredible showing in Memphis. Over 147 plate appearances, he’s hitting .308/.367/.677 with an astounding 15 home runs. No other Triple-A batter has more than 13 round-trippers, and only the Cubs’ Robel García has a higher slugging percentage in the International League.

Gorman’s production hasn’t been completely without issue, as he’s gone down on strikes 50 times. That’s a 34% clip, an alarming rate for any minor leaguer considering the higher quality of pitching he’ll face in the majors. Ultimately, however, Gorman’s power production became too much for the St. Louis front office to ignore.

It has been a long-awaited debut for Cardinals fans, who have anticipated Gorman’s arrival since he was selected with the 19th pick in the 2018 draft out of an Arizona high school. Regarded as a power-hitting third baseman as an amateur, he has more or less met those expectations while in the minors. Gorman has consistently posted huge extra-base numbers while running elevated strikeout totals. Prospect evaluators have raised some concerns about the amount of swing-and-miss in his game, but they’ve been unanimously effusive in their praise of his power upside.

Each of FanGraphs, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Keith Law of the Athletic and Baseball America slotted Gorman among the game’s top 60 prospects this past offseason. (Law and McDaniel both placed him among their top 20). That was before this season’s home run barrage, which only figures to have raised the 22-year-old’s profile even further. Gorman has kicked over to the keystone in the minors with Nolan Arenado entrenched at third base. He’s not regarded as an elite defender and will certainly be a downgrade from Edman there, but the hope is that his offensive capabilities will more than compensate for any issues on the other side of the ball.

Not to be outshined, Gorman’s draft mate will make his major league debut one day later. Liberatore is lined up to start Saturday’s game against the Bucs, manager Oliver Marmol confirmed to reporters (Woo link). The skipper said it’s still to be determined whether there’ll be more than one spot start for the 22-year-old southpaw. Regardless, that Liberatore is now lined up to pitch in the majors suggests he’s firmly on the organizational rotation depth chart.

Liberatore was coincidentally also a first-round draftee out of a Phoenix-area high school the same year as Gorman, and the two have been friends since childhood. Seen as one of the top prep arms in that year’s class, he fell to the Rays at 16th overall because of concerns about his signing bonus — which ultimately checked in just shy of $3.5MM. While Liberatore’s fastball sat in the low-90s, he drew praise for his secondary offerings, particularly a curveball that evaluators consider his best pitch. He pitched well for his first season-plus in the lower levels of the Tampa Bay farm system, then was involved in a January 2020 blockbuster that sent Randy Arozarena back to Tampa Bay.

The cancelation of the 2020 minor league season kept Liberatore from making his official Cardinals debut until last year. The organization pushed him straight to Memphis for his age-21 campaign and he held his own, tossing 124 2/3 innings of 4.04 ERA ball with a solid 23.7% strikeout rate and an excellent 6.3% walk percentage. St. Louis assigned him back there to open this season, and he’s made strides from a swing-and-miss perspective. Liberatore’s ERA and walk rate are right in line with his 2021 marks, but he’s improved his strikeout rate by almost five points through his first seven starts.

Liberatore is also regarded by most evaluators as one of the top 100 minor league talents. He’s not seen as a future ace, but between his excellent control and well-rounded arsenal, he’s unanimously viewed as a possible rotation stalwart. Whether the Cardinals plug him into that role immediately isn’t clear, but it seems likely he’ll be taking the ball every fifth day in St. Louis before long.

Neither Gorman nor Liberatore will accrue enough major league service time this year to reach the one-year threshold. Even if both players are in the majors for good, neither will be eligible for free agency until after the 2028 campaign at the earliest. Both players are in good position to reach early arbitration as Super Two qualifiers after the 2024 season, although that’s contingent on sticking in the big leagues from here on out. In Liberatore’s case, in particular, it seems future optional assignments are still a possibility.

The Cards have Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz, Dakota Hudson, Miles Mikolas and Jordan Hicks as their primary starting five at the moment. Wainwright and Mikolas have been excellent. Matz has struggled but isn’t going to be bumped from the rotation two months into a four-year contract. Hudson doesn’t have great strikeout and walk marks, but he’s riding his typically elite ground-ball production to decent results. That’s more or less also true of Hicks, who has lengthened out into the rotation after a few years as a high-leverage bullpen arm.

Of course, St. Louis has been without arguably their best pitcher for the entire season. Jack Flaherty hasn’t thrown a pitch because of a shoulder issue that required a platelet-rich plasma injection. He’s been on the 10-day injured list all year, and the club announced that he’s been transferred to the 60-day IL to clear space for Gorman on the 40-man roster.

That’s merely a procedural move that keeps Flaherty out for two months from Opening Day. The 26-year-old has yet to embark on a minor league rehab assignment and surely wouldn’t have been ready to make an MLB return before the first week of June anyhow. Flaherty has recently progressed to throwing bullpen sessions, so it seems reasonable he could head out into minor league games within a few weeks.

The club will also need to create a spot on the 40-man roster for Liberatore, with that transaction set to occur before Saturday’s contest. Aside from Flaherty, St. Louis doesn’t have any obvious candidates for a 60-day IL transfer, so it seems likely someone will be designated for assignment within the next two days.

The only disappointing aspect of today’s news is that O’Neill is headed to the IL. He’s missed the past couple days battling the shoulder discomfort that will now cost him at least a week and a half. The team hasn’t provided an indication whether he’s facing an absence longer than the minimal stint.

So continues a rough start to the year for O’Neill, who is just a season removed from an eighth-place finish in NL MVP voting. The 26-year-old has hit just .195/.256/.297 with a pair of home runs across 133 plate appearances, nowhere near the 34-homer output he put forth last season. O’Neill, who also lost his arbitration hearing last week, will try to get back on track whenever he’s healthy enough to make his return.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cardinals Defeat Tyler O’Neill In Arbitration

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The Cardinals have won their arbitration hearing with outfielder Tyler O’Neill, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (on Twitter). He’ll take home a $3.4MM salary in 2022; O’Neill had filed at $4.15MM.

This was O’Neill’s first of three trips trough the arbitration process. He’s on track to reach free agency after the 2024 campaign. Future arbitration salaries are based on the platforms established in previous years, so the slugger will be working from a lower baseline than if he’d won the hearing. The Cards and his representatives at the Boras Corporation had been discussing a potential long-term deal that could’ve avoided the process entirely, but the sides obviously didn’t come to an agreement. With the hearing now in the rearview mirror, it seems talks about a multi-year pact will be put on hold — at least until next offseason.

O’Neill told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch last week the process was “definitely something that I am ready to have completed” but denied that its lingering into the season was having any effect on his performance. The 26-year-old is off to a rough start, hitting .198/.267/.317 with just a pair of home runs in his first 116 plate appearances.

Arbitration hearings are typically conducted over the offseason, but the unresolved cases were pushed into the season after the lockout halted winter dealings for more than three months. Arbitrators’ decisions are to be based solely off a player’s body of work up through 2021, so O’Neill’s slow start should not have been a factor in the result.

Cardinals Discussing Multi-Year Extension With Tyler O’Neill

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Tyler O’Neill is the Cardinals’ only arbitration-eligible player who has yet to reach an agreement for the 2022 season, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports (Twitter link) that O’Neill’s arb hearing will take place in the first week of May.  However, the possibility exists that the hearing could be avoided, as the two sides are still in talks about a multi-year extension.

It was less than two weeks ago that the Cardinals reached an extension with another outfielder, as Harrison Bader inked a two-year, $10.4MM deal that also allowed both sides to sidestep an arbitration hearing.  Bader’s deal covered his final two years of arbitration eligibility, whereas O’Neill is only in the first of three arb-eligible years.  It isn’t known whether or not the negotiations are centered around a two- or three-year pact to just address O’Neill’s arbitration years, or if perhaps a longer-term contract could be under discussion.

The Cardinals have been proactive in extending building-block players over the years, and O’Neill’s 2021 breakout makes a good case that he is worth such a long-term extension.  O’Neill hit .286/.352/.560 with 34 home runs over 537 plate appearances last season, translating to a whopping 144 wRC+ and 150 OPS+.  Between that offensive pop, plus baserunning (O’Neill stole 15 bases in 19 attempts), and his second consecutive Gold Glove in left field, O’Neill was somewhat quietly one of baseball’s best all-around players, and only 12 players topped O’Neill’s 5.4 fWAR in 2021.

This big season didn’t exactly come out of nowhere, as O’Neill was a top-100 ranked prospect.  However, he had hit a far more modest .229/.291/.422 in 450 big league PA prior to the 2021 season, and strikeouts have been a continual problem for the Canadian slugger.  O’Neill posted a 31.3% strikeout rate in 2021, putting him in the fourth percentile of all players according to Statcast.

With this in mind, St. Louis could opt to just explore a shorter-term extension for now, in order to gain cost certainty over at least one more of O’Neill’s arbitration years but still coming short of a lengthy commitment.  As noted, this is only O’Neill’s first trip through the arb process, and since he isn’t scheduled to hit free agency until after the 2024 season, the Cardinals may not feel an immediate rush to work out a big extension.  O’Neill is looking for a $4.15MM salary in 2022, while the team submitted a $3.4MM figure.  (MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected O’Neill to land $3.5MM.)

Cardinals, Harrison Bader Avoid Arbitration With Two-Year Extension

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The Cardinals and outfielder Harrison Bader have agreed to a two-year, $10.4MM contract extension, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (all Twitter links).  The deal will cover Bader’s final two years of salary arbitration eligibility, and he’ll now receive a $1MM signing bonus up front, and $4.7MM salaries in both 2022 and 2023.  Up to $2.25MM in incentive clauses can also be earned for the 2023 season, based on plate appearances or games-played thresholds.  Bader is represented by Vayner Sports.

There was a sizable gap between Bader and the Cardinals when the two sides submitted their arbitration figures, as Bader was looking for $4.8MM and the team countered with a $3.8MM number.  (Both figures were higher than the $3.7MM that MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected for Bader’s 2022 salary.)  The extension now means that a hearing is no longer necessary, and Bader’s arbitration process can be sidestepped entirely next winter.

It’s a nice payday for Bader, who has gone from being a backup outfielder to something of an under-the-radar five-tool talent.  There was never any question about Bader’s defense, and his excellent center field glovework was recognized with his first Gold Glove Award in 2021.  Bader is also a strong baserunner and could hit left-handed pitching, but questions persisted as to whether or not he could produce against right-handers.

Bader answered the critics last season, batting .273/.331/.458 with 12 homers over 326 PA against righties.  Oddly, this slash line actually topped his numbers against southpaws, yet the sum total was still a .267/.324/.460 slash and 16 homers over 401 plate appearances (110 wRC+, 116 OPS+).  Between this above-average offense and great defense, Bader was a 3.4 fWAR player in only 103 games, as he missed almost two full months of the season with forearm and rib injuries.

This isn’t to say that Bader is necessarily a finished product at the plate, as he had subpar hard-contact numbers and didn’t generate many walks last season.  His .331 wOBA was also far higher than his .295 xwOBA, so there was certainly some good fortune at play.  Still, even if Bader’s offense takes a step backwards, his defense is alone good enough to merit at least a part-time outfield role.

Between Bader in center, fellow Gold Glover Tyler O’Neill in left field, and star prospect-turned-breakout player Dylan Carlson in right field, St. Louis has one of baseball’s best young outfields, and this trio was a major reason why the Cardinals pulled off a late-season surge to make the playoffs.  The Cards augmented this group of right-handed hitters with lefty-swinging Corey Dickerson this winter, plus Lars Nootbaar and the versatile Tommy Edman will be getting some time on the grass.

The Bader extension takes care of one of the Cards’ two outstanding arb cases, as O’Neill has also yet to agree on his deal for the 2022 season.  However, MLB.com’s John Denton hears from a source that “progress is being made” toward an agreement with O’Neill.

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