Happy Labor Day to those who celebrate! While fans around America enjoy a day of rest and relaxation, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Leiter to be recalled:
The Rangers are set to recall the second overall pick of the 2021 draft, right-hander Jack Leiter, to the big league club today. While the 24-year-old was optioned back down to the minors after pitching in a doubleheader against the White Sox last week as the club’s 27th man, reporting indicated at the time that the Rangers were planning to give Leiter a more extended look in the rotation down the stretch. That look figures to start today, and Leiter will get a tough first assignment with Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and the Yankees coming to town for a game that’s scheduled to start at 7:05pm local time.
Leiter struggled badly early in his professional career despite posting sensational numbers during his time in the SEC, but this year has managed to turn things around at Triple-A. He’s posted a solid 3.51 ERA with a 33.3% strikeout rate for the Rangers’ affiliate in Round Rock, a feat made more impressive by the inflated offensive environment in the Pacific Coast League. He’s made just four spot starts in the big leagues to this point in his career to terrible results, but given his stellar minor league numbers it’s easy to see why Texas wants to see how he looks in a more consistent major league role.
2. Gurriel to undergo MRI:
The Diamondbacks were dealt a frustrating blow yesterday afternoon when outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was pulled from yesterday’s game due to a calf injury that occurred while he attempted to beat out a double play ball. Manager Torey Lovullo described Gurriel as day-to-day after the game but also noted that the outfielder is set to undergo an MRI to determine the severity of the issue. Gurriel’s second season in a Diamondbacks uniform has been more or less identical to his first, as he’s posted a 104 wRC+ with 1.9 fWAR after posting a 105 wRC+ with 2.0 fWAR for last year’s NL pennant-winning squad.
If Gurriel were to miss significant time due to the injury, it’s possible that the club’s current DH tandem of Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk could see expanded roles down the stretch, though recently recalled youngster Jorge Barrosa would be another option worth considering in Gurriel’s absence. The switch-hitting rookie has just 11 plate appearances in the majors under his belt but owns a solid .272/.383/.444 career slash line in 181 games at the Triple-A level to this point in his career. If the club prefers to keep Pederson and Grichuk in their current roles but does not want to turn their regular left field job over to a 23-year-old rookie, they could also turn to Pavin Smith to cover for Gurriel. The outfielder has struggled at the big league level in years past but this season has hit a solid .250/.314/.434 in a part-time role.
3. Series Preview: Red Sox @ Mets
An interleague series between the two clubs closest to capturing a playoff spot in each league is scheduled to begin today when the Red Sox head to Queens for a three-game set. Of the two clubs, the Mets are much more firmly in playoff contention at this point, sitting just one game back of the Braves for the final NL Wild Card spot. The Red Sox, by contrast, are 4.5 games back of the Royals and Twins in the AL Wild Card race entering the stretch run. Per the playoff odds over at Fangraphs, Boston has a 15.5% chance of making the postseason while the Mets have 29.2% odds.
With the season entering its final stretch, the series could prove pivotal for both clubs as they seek postseason berths. Game 1 is scheduled to begin at 7:10pm local time this evening, when Red Sox youngster Brayan Bello (4.66 ERA) takes the mound opposite veteran hurler Luis Severino (3.96 ERA). Tomorrow will see righty Kutter Crawford (4.12 ERA) square off against southpaw David Peterson (2.83 ERA), and Boston’s staff ace Tanner Houck (3.12 ERA) face Mets righty Tylor Megill (4.82 ERA) in the series finale on Wednesday.
Mets are close but they have fourth hardest SOS (strength of schedule) with 7 games against Philly and what could be a huge series against Atlanta late this month, who themselves have an easier SOS.
They’re strange though, they’ve been playing the stronger teams tougher of late. 2-1 vs. Balt, 2-2 vs. SD, 2-1 vs. AZ just before this last White Sox series. Then before that they struggled vs. Oak and the Marlins. Odd team
Oakland has the second best record in the AL since the All-Star break.
They have a good core of young players.
Holden – It helps that they’ve gone 11-5 against the ChiSox, Angels, Reds and Jays.
Not to take away from their improvement, but they’re still nowhere near a good team. Even Miller has been getting hammered his past few games.
@Ma4170 That pretty much sums up the Yankees albeit a light schedule. It’s a wonder how they’re still up top the ALE.
YBC – When you look at the unprecedented parity in the AL this season, it’s really not a surprise.
It takes .615 ball to win 100 games.
The Dodgers have the best record in MLB and are on pace for 97 wins.
Three NL teams have winning percentage of at least .584 which means they are on pace for at least 95 wins.
In the AL, no team has a winning percentage greater than the .577 Yankees who are on pace for 93 wins.
The Royals and Twins, both of whom currently occupy the bottom two WC spots, have a combined record of 5-14 going back a dozen days.
The top team outside a playoff spot, the Red Sox, are 5-10 in their past 15 games.
The AL simply sucks, due in part to several key injuries and the absence of talented rookies (check out the NL rookies compared to the AL rookies, it’s ridiculous how much stronger the NL rookie class is this year).
I can’t imagine betting on any team other than the Astros to win the AL pennant.
Fever, it’s parity by injury.
Hayzee – Royals about to lose again. They’ve got Witt and Sal and not much else, they can be caught by the Sox!
Now watch Pablo and Iglesias beat them tonight. Ya think the Sox could have used Jose at 2B this season?
Looked at the last month of schedule early this year and surprisingly saw no Phillies/Braves matchup but turns out that Mets/Braves series may be the one to watch. Reminiscent of the late 2022 series that decided the division (which was also the second to last series of the year). Mets revenge maybe? But they have to get there first.
And that Mets series in Atlanta is on the same dates as the Yankees’ all-important home series vs. Baltimore.
[The curse of the balanced schedule: only 4 series vs. each division rival compared to 6 in previous years.]
Ah the Mets… for many years I kept hearing… “ Little roller up along first””!!! So happy it’s been replaced by..’ “Back to Foulke!!! Life is good…
Calvin Shiraldi. Yep those were the days. One strike away.
Yes it was.. one strike MANY instances was the killer!! Damn Mookie…
Olm – “Back to Foulke” was replaced with Pedroia telling Coors Field security “Ask Jeff Effing Francis who the eff I am. I’m the guy who hit a bomb and just ended their effing season.”
lol!!! Man I loved Petey!!! I saw a roast of Ortiz.. someone said you want a step stool? ( for microphone) he said no I’ll just use my f$@ken wallet!!! Still can’t stand M Machado!!
Olm – Pedroia is the real life Tanner Boyle!
“Happy Labor Day” you say. Define “Labor day” in America…..
An Irish man worked 11 years 3 as a LABORER and 8 in the hospitality industry in New York City. Helped build that skyline you all so enjoy. Paid every tax known to man yet still forced out and not let back in. Happy “Labor Day”. Enjoy st Patrick’s day, cinco de mayo, the Puerto Rican day parade and all the other holidays that aren’t yours tho.
So stunning and brave of you to say that! Anyway…
I still can’t believe there’s no CEO Day. Because they’re the true heroes of America, salting their money away, spoiling their kids, doing whatever they want whenever they want. Let’s celebrate that, and of course, root for the Yankees, and vote for the orange ear lobe.
You should change your name to The Big Yo-yo and go back to bed. Happy Labor Day to all baseball fans!
@The Big Yo
Yes, pitchers don’t labor anymore. Throw 4 innings and let the bullpen do the rest. Go take a shower and head out for a night out while you earn millions of dollars.
There are currently 5 times the current population of Ireland of Irish living in the USA, twice the number of Puerta Ricans, and the number of Mexicans in the US would be 1/4th the current population of Mexico. Not to mention that Puerto Rican are born American. How many celebrations of different nationalities/cultures do these countries/territories observe on a regular basis?
MLB-1971- I always feel like we need a semantics improvement when we think of freedom and even liberty. Both imply the ability to do what we want. There is no absolute freedom. Liberty and Justice exist on a scale. True liberty is barbarism. I like freedom of speech but that doesn’t mean I want someone coming up to me screaming in my face. I really just wanted to post something to the original guys bad take but came up empty so here I added to the irrelevancy and worse I’m gonna post it anyway. Dang it! And I see I’m blocked by 1971. He is free to do that tho. See, I’m not free to force him to see my post. That’s kinda what I’m talking about. To be more practical I’m not free to sit at home for 75 years and pay nothing or someone will run me out of my house. Therefore I am under some form of servitude to society (a part to the whole…that’s life itself) and hence am not “free”.
The Big Whine – If you work for a pay check, it is considered labor. If you were forced out, go get a different job….
My next door neighbor is not Christian, but he celebrates Christmas….. That is all of what having freedom is! I hope we continue to have it here for another 250 year!!!!
DBacks keep finding ways to win games. Lots of injuries as of late.
Well they do have the best offense in baseball by far.
And the mets nearly swept them in AZ. These WC teams all hot at the same time. makes for fun baseball
its – The way they destroyed the Red Sox in Fenway without Marte and Walker was damn impressive. My interpreter has more than a few wagers that involve the DBacks making the WS again.
Fever it’ll be tough. NL is top-heavy with LA and Philly. Even SD has played well. If I were to wager I’d be picking a Top NL team.
Its – I totally agree. I like the DBacks mostly because of their postseason experience.
Mookie needs to end his long, long postseason slump.
Phillies have a great shot, and Xander can lead the Padres.
Mets have 7 against the phils and the last 6 games of the season vs atlanta and the brewers! Very toughhh.. so very important to either sweep or win the remaining series against BoSox Bluejays Reds And Nationals! I think well take 5/7 from the phils idk about atlanta our long time nemesis.. we also gotta watch out for them Cubs who just wont lose
Do you think the Brewers are rolling out their top end starters for that series?
Most likely not.. they prob going to try to give their regulars a rest for the postseason or have their pitchers only go a few innings before pulling them out! Once they qualify no point to run that risk unless they still playing decisive games
I think the mets make it this year.. our bulpen and starters maton young nunez diaz butto hopefully senga severino manea peterson gives me hope we can have a good run if we get in because the offense can be there when they feel like it
Bigg – I can see the Mets winning tonight and tomorrow, but I don’t see them winning Wednesday. Houck vs Megill seems like a huge mismatch.
I hope it comes down to the Mets and Braves series. Make one of them earn it.
I wish the Red Sox got rid of Cora instead of the 3 year extension.
High – Most of RSN wishes the same. I think Breslow either was pressured to keep him, or he was totally snowed by Cora.
Even worse, the extension likely means Tek will be gone after this season. That is going to be a tough pill to swallow.
Raise your hand if you had David Peterson with an ERA under three.
Raisinsss
This is why you shouldn’t bet on ERA – too random of a stat
Peterson – YEAR ERA FIP
2020 3.44 4.52
2021 5.54 4.78
2022 3.83 3.64
2023 5.03 4.34
2024 2.83 4.25
ERA has been between 2.82 and 5.54
FIP had been between 3.64 and 4.77
ERA is all over the place
FIP is much more stable
FIP is the most useless stat. Let’s erase half of what’s going on and ignore line drives in the gap and only worry about strikeouts and home runs. Any one that has watched Peterson knows he’s a lot better pitcher then years past and doesn’t need stat to see it. He’s throwing strikes and not walking people and getting hurt . He’s going deeper into games by not getting his pitch count up and not getting hurt with runners on.
RE Mets
Unmuting this bad take for a second
“FIP is the most useless stat. Let’s erase half of what’s going on”
FIP assumes that pitchers have no control over batted balls – that’s, of course, not correct
ERA assumes that pitchers have 100% control over batted balls – that’s, of course, not correct
So, how does one choose which one to use?
FIP is more predictive of future performance than ERA
beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/1/9/2690405/what-starti…
The only way to predict the future is to accurately measure the past.
Thus, FIP must be the stat that more accurately measures the past.
I never said ERA was the only way to predict the future. I definitely am not using a stat that erases 60/70% outcomes to rate a pitcher. Peterson had hip issues in the past. He had hip surgery in the offseason to correct those issues. Not every issue from the past determines the future.
Unmuting again
“I definitely am not”
a person who understands science or mathematics.
“Not every issue from the past determines the future.”
You are correct here, though.
There is no problem in focusing on key variables and ignoring others. Focusing on K’s, BB’s and HR’s and ignoring balls in play best isolates what the pitcher is doing.
You said this
“FIP is the most useless stat”
That’s verifiably false.
FIP is one of the most useful stats in predicting future ERA.
Back you go
A team’s offensive output is also useful in predicting ERA. Pitching with a lead is an advantage. But again, if’s only a factor.
Why
Show me the numbers
I bet you would tell me Chris Sale was a better pitcher then Greg Maddux because he’s got a better career FIP.