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Brewers Manager Discusses Rotation Options

By Darragh McDonald | October 11, 2024 at 7:15pm CDT

The Brewers’ season came to a heartbreaking end last week, as they carried a lead into the ninth inning of their deciding game against the Mets in the Wild Card round, but the Mets put together a late rally and took the series. For Milwaukee, that means the focus has now shifted to 2025 and manager Pat Murphy recently discussed some topics related to the roster, with Curt Hogg rounding them up in a piece for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

One of the players Murphy discusses was Aaron Ashby. The lefty once looked like a budding starting before getting derailed by shoulder issues. He finished 2024 on a strong note out of the bullpen but it seems the skipper hasn’t given up on the possibility of the southpaw being a rotation option again in the future.

“If you’re asking me today if he belongs in that late inning role, I’d say no,” Murphy said. “I’d say he’s more of a candidate to throw more innings because his stuff is pretty special and there’s a variety there. That’s going to be discussed, the path. And it has to be player-driven. The player has to want certain things or at least be in a healthy discussion about it.”

Ashby showed his potential when he first came up to the big leagues. Over the 2021 and 2022 seasons, he tossed 139 innings in a swing role, making 23 starts and 17 relief appearances. He allowed 4.47 earned runs per nine innings but with better peripherals. He struck out 27.1% of batters faced, gave out walks at a 9.7% rate and kept balls in play on the ground at a 57.8% clip.

The Brewers clearly believed in what was ahead for Ashby, as they signed him to an extension during that 2022 campaign. The five-year deal guaranteed him $20.5MM and also came with club options for 2028 and 2029, valued at $9MM and $13MM respectively, with a $1MM buyout on the first one.

Unfortunately, the first year of that deal was wasted. Ashby dealt with shoulder problems in 2023 and eventually required arthroscopic surgery, not pitching in the majors at all. Here in 2024, Ashby had been relegated to a depth option. He spent most of the first half on optional assignment, being recalled twice to make spot starts.

In late August, Ashby was recalled from the minors and added to the Milwaukee bullpen. He tossed 19 2/3 innings over 12 appearances down the stretch, with excellent results. He had a 1.37 ERA, 36.8% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate and 51.1% ground ball rate.

Given those excellent results, there might be some temptation to just keep Ashby in a relief role, but it’s also understandable that the Brewers haven’t given up on the rotation path. A solid starter is more useful to a club than a good reliever, generally speaking, and the Brewers should be able to put together a bullpen without Ashby’s contributions. Even if Devin Williams is traded, which seems to be on the table, Milwaukee can turn to guys like Trevor Megill, Joel Payamps, Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig for key bullpen roles.

The variety that Murphy referred to is indeed present, as Ashby threw five different pitches in the majors this year: a four-seamer, sinker, changeup, curveball and slider. It seems he had a bit of rust in harnessing that arsenal while getting over his lost season in 2023, as he walked 17.4% of batters faced in Triple-A this year while posting an 8.04 ERA. But as mentioned, he was able to get in a good grove by the end of the year.

Going forward, it seems Ashby can still try to carve out a rotation role if he wants one. Also in the rotation mix will be Tobias Myers, who Murphy views as a lock for a job. “In my thoughts, he’s a definite,” Murphy said. “But he’s got to go do it in the offseason. He’s got to come back out, recapture that mentality and recapture the arsenal, which isn’t always easy.”

It’s unsurprising that Myers has earned some job security after his strong performance in 2024. He pitched 138 innings for the Brewers this year with a flat 3.00 ERA. He had a 22.3% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 37.6% ground ball rate. He benefitted a bit from a .282 batting average on balls in play and 81.1% strand rate, but even his 3.91 FIP and 3.99 SIERA suggest he would have been solid without as much favor from the baseball gods.

There are some questions for the Brewers to answer in their rotation going forward. Freddy Peralta will be locked into one spot and it seems Myers will as well. Colin Rea posted a 4.29 ERA this year and the Brewers have a $5.5MM club option for 2025 with a $1MM buyout. That makes it a net $4.5MM decision, which is a bargain for a solid back-end starter. Guys like Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Luis Severino got one-year deals worth between $11MM and $13MM last offseason. The Brewers themselves gave $8.5MM to Wade Miley, though he unfortunately required Tommy John surgery early in the year.

Aaron Civale can be retained for 2025 but he will cost more than Rea. He’s eligible for arbitration and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $8MM next year. Given the aforementioned prices for back-end starters, that’s reasonable for Civale, who had a 4.36 ERA in 31 starts this year. But the Brewers generally work with tight budgets and might have less TV revenue coming in next year, so perhaps they might explore the trade market.

DL Hall is another option, as he worked both out of the rotation and bullpen in 2024. But he missed a lot of time due to a left knee sprain and wasn’t able to pile up a big sample of work. He finished the year with a 5.02 ERA across seven starts and six relief appearances.

Another big question mark will be Brandon Woodruff, who missed all of 2024 recovering from shoulder surgery. He’s under contract for 2025 but he’ll be a great unknown for next year, likely until spring training rolls around. Robert Gasser could return late next year after undergoing UCL surgery a few months ago. Jacob Misiorowski is one of the best pitching prospects in the league and he finished the year at Triple-A, but he also walked 14.4% of batters faced on the year and might still need some fine tuning.

Between Peralta, Myers, Woodruff, Ashby, Hall, Rea, Civale and Misiorowski, the Brewers have eight potential rotation options, though the long winter ahead could change the picture via additions or subtractions.

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Post a Comment

33 Comments

  1. MLB Top 100 Commenter

    1 year ago

    Aloha airbender!

    1
    Reply
    • stevewpants

      1 year ago

      …Said Pete Alonso.

      2
      Reply
      • MLB Top 100 Commenter

        1 year ago

        …to the Mets

        4
        Reply
    • afsooner02

      1 year ago

      Death…..taxes….and the brewers developing a top closer that they will trade for future assets while bringing someone else into the role that pitches just as well, if not better and the cycle repeats…..

      3 givens in life.

      10
      Reply
  2. DonOsbourne

    1 year ago

    My prediction is that the Brewers figure out a way to come up with enough quality starting pitching, one way or another.

    4
    Reply
  3. Mike56

    1 year ago

    They’ll pull another rabbit out of there butt and they will be real competitive again

    1
    Reply
  4. ATinz

    1 year ago

    Padres! Lol!

    Reply
  5. Jbigz12

    1 year ago

    DL Hall will be a weapon once he’s finally made into a reliever. Would love to have him back in Baltimore.

    4
    Reply
    • letitbelowenstein

      1 year ago

      Hall gives me Lefty Joe Kelly vibes. I don’t see solid starter coming from him. I think his ‘milieu’ will end up being a 7th/8th inning reliever.

      Reply
      • User 3594734386

        1 year ago

        To me, he’s always been a thrower with not much progress to becoming a pitcher and I don’t see that changing. No ill will towards you DL. You’re a good dude. Hope ya prove me wrong as a Brewer.

        Reply
      • Jbigz12

        1 year ago

        He was the O’s best reliever in the 2023 postseason. You leave him in that role for a full year and he’s going to eat guys up.

        Reply
        • User 3594734386

          1 year ago

          Best reliever? No way. Not even close. Mad props to RP guys that showed up in save situations after Felix went down.. Cano, Cilione P, Coulumbe

          Reply
        • Jbigz12

          1 year ago

          Did you watch the 2023 postseason Jeff? Hall was untouchable.

          Reply
        • User 3594734386

          1 year ago

          jbigz12, good point. Small sample size is my only defense. Hmmm.

          Reply
  6. Citizen1

    1 year ago

    Off topic however on the offense brewers should consider trading for George springer or signing Alex Bergman.

    Reply
    • drewm

      1 year ago

      You’re funny

      Reply
      • Citizen1

        1 year ago

        Yeah, the Braves will get springer in a trade. Down year low cost for the brewers

        Reply
        • ReddVencher

          1 year ago

          Springer has been in decline for 2 straight seasons, and he’s not better than any of the Brewers OF.

          Reply
    • jakec77

      1 year ago

      Or Juan Soto.

      Reply
    • RodBecksBurnerAccount

      1 year ago

      Brewers have plenty of OF. They wouldn’t trade for a regressing Springer who is owed almost $50 million over the next two years which will be his age 35 and 36 seasons.

      And no way they spend the money to sign Bregman.

      They will move Ortiz to SS and give Black every chance to start at 3B.

      Reply
      • Shawnpe

        12 months ago

        Or Sal if Black doesn’t work‍♂️

        Reply
        • RodBecksBurnerAccount

          12 months ago

          I like Sal and I know he worked hard last ST at 3B, but I just don’t think it’s realistic. I’d love for him to prove me wrong. But he’s a solid OF and should stay there. I imagine it will be Chourio, Mitchell, and Sal in the OF with Yelich probably being regulated to DH duty to help him stay healthier.

          Reply
        • SharksFan91

          12 months ago

          What about a Gold Glove caliber OF named Perkins? Oops, I forgot! Murphy, the FO, and others prefer Frelick for some foolish reason.
          “It’s not about the talent, it’s about the people.”- Pat Murphy

          Reply
        • RodBecksBurnerAccount

          12 months ago

          I like Perkins. He’s probably the best defensive CF in MLB right now. But he can’t hit. He was a bad hitter in the minors too. He’s a fourth OF at best.

          Reply
  7. Steinbrenner2728

    1 year ago

    Just going to refer him as the Brewers manager? Well, that manager is Pat Murphy, more of a vetted baseball guy than some “Oli Marmol” in my opinion.

    Reply
  8. Yosh

    1 year ago

    Did I miss the sentence on Montas? Or was he omitted for a reason. Seems like a viable option

    Reply
    • Crew2011

      1 year ago

      20 million mutual option. All but sure to be denied. Maybe resign him short term deal for less.

      Reply
      • AlBundysFanClubPresident

        1 year ago

        If they’re on the fence about bringing back an $8 million or even $5 million/year starter, it’s highly unlikely they’d pick up their end of a $20 million option, or look to sign him after declining it.

        Still, it is odd they didn’t even mention that stuff.

        Reply
      • ReddVencher

        1 year ago

        Montas is going to decline the option because he’ll get more than $20 M guaranteed on a multiyear deal.

        Reply
  9. joe5348

    1 year ago

    Chad Patrick was 14-1. Doesn’t he deserve a shot?

    1
    Reply
    • Scott Kliesen

      1 year ago

      I don’t think any decisions are made based on a Pitchers W/L record anymore.

      Reply
  10. JR513

    1 year ago

    Mitch Keller and Skenes for prospects so Pittsburgh can start its rebuild for there move to Montreal when there stadium contract ends

    Reply
  11. SharksFan91

    12 months ago

    Ashby doesn’t belong in the rotation and was or is a bad investment. Get rid of Hoskins. If Adames isn’t resigned, a free agent 3B, SS, or 1B should be the goal. Then a front-line starting pitcher would also be a nice addition. A quality #1 or 2 starter this past season would have saved the bullpen and made the team a legitimate WS contender.

    Reply

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