Brewers general manager Matt Arnold held a press conference today on the heels of the club being eliminated from the playoffs last week. Arguably the most notable thing he said was in relation to closer Devin Williams. “We have to stay open-minded,” Arnold said, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com on X. “We’re the smallest market in the league, so that’s something that’s required in this.”
Williams, 30, is slated to reach free agency one year from now. Due to the financial limitations that Arnold referenced, many Milwaukee players have found themselves in trade rumors as they have neared free agency. A player will generally see his salary increase as his window of club control narrows and the Brewers have often preferred to trade such players rather than holding them all the way to free agency.
Josh Hader, who preceded Williams as closer in Milwaukee, was flipped to the Padres at the 2022 deadline when he had just over a year of club control remaining. Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles last winter, when he was one year away from the open market. Hader initially came to the Brewers in the 2015 deadline deal that sent a year-plus of Carlos Gómez to Houston alongside Mike Fiers.
Not every Milwaukee player will be traded in this situation. Shortstop Willy Adames was in plenty of rumors last winter but ultimately stayed for his final season of club control. He is now likely to depart but the Brewers will receive compensation if that comes to pass. They will make him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason and he is sure to reject that while pursuing a long-term deal.
The Brewers are unlikely to bank on the QO path with Williams. As a pitcher, there’s far more risk of him being hurt before getting to that point. The Brewers saw Brandon Woodruff felled by a shoulder injury when he was about a year away from free agency. He ultimately required surgery with a recovery time of more than a year, scuttling the chances of a trade or a qualifying offer. In that case, they agreed to a two-year deal to keep him around through 2025.
Williams himself was injured for much of 2024, missing time due to fractures in his back. On top of that, a QO salary would be steep for a reliever, even one that’s healthy and elite. This year’s QO is going to be $21.05MM and that number is likely to rise by this time next year. The best relievers can get in that vicinity in terms of average annual value. Edwin Díaz has an AAV of $20.4MM on his deal with the Mets while Hader got a $19MM AAV from the Astros.
Having Williams accept a QO for a one-year deal at a high rate wouldn’t be a drastic overpay but the Brewers likely prefer to exchange him for younger and controllable players now. Such trades helped them compose a decent chunk of their current roster. The Hader deal netted them Esteury Ruiz, who they were able to flip for William Contreras. Lefty Robert Gasser was also acquired in that deal, though he won’t be much of a factor in 2025 after undergoing UCL surgery a few months ago. The Burnes trade netted them DL Hall and Joey Ortiz. Hall was injured and ineffective for much of 2024 but could still be a key part of the club’s future, while Ortiz immediately established himself as a piece of the club’s infield and could perhaps replace Adames at short next year.
Williams won’t make a massive amount of money in 2025, relative to the context of Major League Baseball. The Brewers and the righty avoided arbitration last year by agreeing to a $7MM salary for 2024 with a $10.5MM club option and $250K buyout for 2025. They might go for that buyout, as Williams would still be controllable via arbitration even if they take that path. Since he missed significant time due to injury in 2024, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Williams for a $7.7MM arbitration salary next year.
Per RosterResource, the club had a payroll of $116MM in 2024 but has only $76MM committed for 2025. Triggering club options on Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea would get them close to the $90MM range while the club’s arbitration class is projected for about $37MM. A few non-tenders or trades could knock that down but the club will likely be starting the offseason with a similar payroll to what they had in 2024.
The club could perhaps see less revenue coming in on the broadcast side as their deal with Diamond Sports Group ended and they are pivoting to the direct-to-consumer model in 2025. That’s probably a smart move in the long run since Diamond has been going through the bankruptcy process for a year and a half now, but the cash flow might be a bit slower in the short term.
A salary in the $7-10MM range for a pitcher of Williams’ quality is very affordable, even for a club like the Brewers. Considering a trade would save the club a bit of money for 2025 but would likely be more about helping them compete down the line. Instead of keeping Williams for another year and seeing him depart, potentially for nothing, it makes sense to see if the club can get building-block pieces in return, as they did in the aforementioned deals.
The club will be looking to replace Adames, which could be accomplished via Ortiz or Brice Turang taking over at shortstop. But doing so would open up a hole at second or third base. Sal Frelick moving to third base was explored in 2024 and manager Pat Murphy said that is still on the table going forward, per McCalvy on X, but Frelick is still unproven at the position with only four innings there in 2024. The Brewers normally aren’t big players in free agency and might not have much budget room this winter, so the trade market might be their best bet at filling in the roster.
Despite the aforementioned injuries, Williams continued to perform when on the mound. While the postseason ended on a sour note as Williams blew a save in the club’s final game against the Mets, that was after he posted a 1.25 earned run average in his 22 appearances during the regular season. His 12.5% walk rate was above league average but fairly normal for him, as he struck out 43.2% of batters faced.
Overall, Williams now has a tiny 1.83 ERA over 241 career appearances in the regular season. He has worked around an 11.8% walk rate by striking out 39.4% of opponents and keeping balls in play on the ground at a 48.1% clip. He racked up 36 saves last year, stepping into Hader’s role as the closer, and saved another 14 this year after recovering from his back injury.
Trading Williams would hurt Milwaukee’s bullpen but they could perhaps replace Williams internally, the same way that Williams himself replaced Hader. Trevor Megill had a strong season with a 2.72 ERA. His 27.3% strikeout rate was far lower than Williams’, but he also had a lower walk rate of 7.7%, racking up 21 saves mostly while Williams was hurt. He is set to reach arbitration for the first time this winter with a projected salary of just $2MM and two more seasons of control after that. Guys like Aaron Ashby, Joel Payamps, Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig also had strong results in 2024 and could be considered for moving up the chain going forward.
Ultimately, whether a trade comes together or not will depend on what the Brewers are offered. But Williams is an elite reliever with an affordable salary, so he should garner interest from just about any club with designs on contending in 2025. It’s not a guarantee that he will be moved but he’s one of the most logical trade candidates for the upcoming winter and the club’s GM essentially acknowledged that the phone lines are open.
Watch the padres (somehow) shock everyone again by trading for Devin
But the brewers are definitely trading him this offseason just like burnes and he probably goes to the Yankees for a year
Luke Weaver has a $2.5MM team option for ’25 so it’s highly unlikely that the Yankees trade and pay the high asking price for Williams.
Fair take ybc, but idk if I rule out the yanks taking a run at williams this offseason. Weaver’s been great and he’s maintained that into the postseason to date but if the bullpen costs the yanks this postseason who knows. Personally.id rather they address the pen through free agency and lower level trades but I wouldn’t be sad to see williams on the team next year either.
You mean like the way Williams cost the Brewers in the postseason…?
Find me the reliever who’s never had a meltdown in a big spot. Take your time, I can wait. Williams is nasty and has an excellent track record in his career so far. He’d be a major upgrade to any pen.
You said “but if the bullpen costs the Yanks this postseason…” That infers they should look for successful relievers who won’t cost the team in the postseason, thus eliminating Williams.
And his postseason stats so far are three appearances with a 23+ ERA. Small sample, but he’s blown it both times.
There’s no such thing as a player who is guaranteed to succeed in any givenappearance playoffs or otherwise. You’re being way too literal in your comments here. Williams is one of, if not the best, relief arms that will likely be available this offseason. My point is that the yankee bullpen is a clear area of need for them is the offseason and a high profile bullpen failure in October may lead the team to feel they have to make a big splashy upgrade. Williams is a big splashy upgrade. Sheesh.
@HatlessPete Wouldn’t it better to use their trade chips for a 1B or LF or 2B? It’s not a given that Jasson Dominguez is ready next season. I’m also assuming Soto is resigned. Matt Blake has shown how well he can work with relievers off the scrap heap.
Yes I think those are legitimate areas of need. I’m not trying to say that I believe it should be williams or bust, like i said in my first comment here. I was just considering a scenario that could lead to them going after him. And then this other guy decided to be a pedantic twerp. That said we are looking at a bullpen that will need multiple adds/upgrades. Holmes is a free agent and should not be resigned imo. Cousins and Hamilton look like nice pieces for next year, ditto weaver but relievers are up and down year to year and none of these guys have a super long track record of relief success. And at that point what do we have left? Kahnle has been good but is also a fa this offseason and is getting on in years. Leiter hasn’t been very good this year, mayza has been meh. Hill has been good for the yanks but is also a fa. We need at least one impact leverage arm and we need a solid lefty, maybe a third add of a solid proven middle innings guy to have a solid foundation for Blake to flesh out doing his Blake thing. Thr impact arm doesn’t have to be williams, tanner Scott is a free agent, and Ryan helsley could be gettable in trade. But I will say I like williams better than both those guys.
Williams was different this season. It’s overlooked because he was able to get himself out of most of the jams he created for himself, but he’s walked fat too many batters for a closer.
Devin walk rate was 4.57 BB/9 against a career 4.28 BB/9., so right in line with his career marks.
he’s going to the team that gives Milwaukee the best players in return in a trade
They won’t give him away just for the sake of trading him
Still thou, price can’t be that high w a bloated 1 year salary coming off an injury or 3
Will DJ Hall have a shot at closing?
DL Hall is not closer material. Has a starters repertoire. Doesn’t have the “nails” to close. McGill, or maybe our rookie, Misorowski.
Misorowski should be kept as a starter, IMHO
The list of replacement closers for Milwaukee includes Trevor Megill, Joel Payamps, Abner Uribe, Jacob Misiorowski and Craig Yoho, who has been throwing an unhittable changeup in Triple A.
Misiorowski has the repertoire to be a starter especially if he keeps developing his curve to pair with his fastball & slider. However, he currently looks like a right-handed Josh Hader where a move to the BP and limited innings could help with his control issues and let his dominant fastball/slider play up.
I’d be fine with either, except if it means Hall stays a starter.
@jim Yoho has been ridiculous. I’d love to see how he would fair as a starter with his repertoire
Abner uribe is the next closer if he can figure out his anger issues
I could live with the anger issues, it’s his inability to consistently throw strikes that’s the biggest problem.
Jury seems to be split on how good his fastball really is, but he’s got the stuff to close out games. Just too wild currently to count on.
Agree on McGill. He’s the only one of the bunch that has anywhere near traditional “blow them away’ closer potential.
Brewers put up a better fight than the Phillies. They just ran into a hot team at the wrong time, which is their theme come October.
Love it !
The Mets have been hot since June. When was the right time?
@metsinfour every team that has beaten the Brewers in the postseason has at least made the WS. 2023 DBacks, 2021 Braves, 2020 Dodgers, 2019 Nationals, 2018 Dodgers, 2011 Cardinals, 2008 Phillies, 1982 Cardinals (which was the WS), 1981 Yankees, etc. That’s more to what I’m referring to.
Yes, the Brewers did a better job at losing to the Mets than the Phillies did.
TL;DR: He’s getting expensive.
Yup, I think they trade him. Knowing the Brewers, they’ll get young prospects that end up helping them continue winning division titles.
Pick up the phone Chris Young. You have to rebuild the entire bullpen and this is a good place to start.
Yates might’ve been the best closer in BB. I’m not sure that’s what I spend on.
He was good but he’s also a free agent along with Robertson and Leclerc. Sborz’s shoulder is not well. They have absolutely zero late inning options on the roster as of today.
Yates is either leaving or getting a huge raise. Rangers need pen help bad.
“Yates might’ve been the best closer in BB.”
I would go with Clase but Yates had a great year.
Alot of teams need bullpen help, so who knows where he ends up, but the Rangers would be my best guess.
Brewers need IF help, preferably with some pop, and you guys seem to have some depth there.
Milwaukee is hardly the smallest market in the league
…what? They are absolutely the smallest market in MLB.
Smaller than Cincinnati and Pittsburgh?
And Cleveland, Tampa Bay
Nah, they’re part of the third largest market. Everyone knows Milwaukee is a suburb of Chicago.
They are the smallest market. That doesn’t mean they spend the least though.
The blue jays need a bullpen
They do but they have a lot of needs going into 2025 with fa status for bo and vladdy looming. Don’t really see depleting an already thin farm system for one year of williams as a good move for them if they even have the pieces to outbid other clubs to begin with.
Addison Barger would look good in Brewer blue.
Jays should sign Zaidi ! He’s a great fit for that franchise
Yeah, Atkins should be all over this. Leo Jimenez, future Brewer has a nice ring to it.
The Blue Jay’s have a bullpen, it’s behind the outfield wall.
Yeah, his last outing vs. the Mets should really help his trade value. It was only THE MOST IMPORTANT GAME OF THE BREWER’S SEASON.
Trade him to the Mets, they badly need to upgrade their bullpen
Texas Rangers all day Devin Williams and Yates in 8th and 9th would be nasty.
Could see Rangers offer Duran, Harris, Crimm, Gray for Williams. Still I think they are more likely to check in on St Louis for Romero and/or Helsley.
Helsley
Romero
Contreras
For
Walcott
Three performing major leaguers for one prospect never happens.
What does that even mean? Any trade can happen if it makes sense for both teams. That trade makes sense for both teams.
That’s a lot for one 18 yo prospect.
Texas isn’t taking on Contreras’s contract.
Would Willson want to go to Texas? He has a no trade clause.
A more likely trade would be Helsley and Romero for a group of prospects including Walcott. Need a Rangers fan to comment here if they would like to see that.
The Rangers aren’t trading an 18 year old elite prospect that will probably be ranked 1 by next year.
Contreras would make a good DH/backup catcher. They also could use him as a backup 1b too. Cardinals could pay some of the contract. Helsley and Romero isn’t enough for Walcott.
Cards would pay most of the contract, though now that I look at Walcott, Texas is not trading him.
Cardinals would not pay most of the contract. Contreras is a good player if he’s overpaid it’s not by a lot. The Rangers need pen help about as bad as anyone who considers themselves a contender.
I think you’re stuck with Contreras and Arenado – they are good, but have over 100,000 miles on them with three more years to pay off the loan. If the Cards want a top prospect, they’re going to have to trade some of their players with trade value like Nootbaar or Donovan, not no-trade, underwater contracts like Contreras.
Contreras is not a bad player and frankly I would prefer the team kept him and traded Herrera because Herrera has more trade value. Only one who benefits from trading Contreras or Arenado is ownership by saving money.
Helsley has value. So does Romero. I would do Helsley and one of Donovan or Nootbaar but I don’t think the Rangers need those guys. Rangers need pen help and a middle of the order bat.
Brewers aren’t trading Williams for the Rangers’ scraps.
Let the ‘Padres GM AJ Preller has checked in on Williams’ articles BEGIN!
A solid article and pretty much knowledgeable comments as well.
My guess has been that Williams is traded this offseason. The Brewers coaching staff is very good developing their own pitchers and catchers. They’ll develop a replacement.
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I like the Brewers, but Williams has scared me as a closer. The mans’ best pitch is his change-up. In the late innings I don’t understand why more batters don’t do what Alonso did – wait for the inevitable change-up, and foul off pitches till you get it. Maybe easier said than done. But I suspect that next year more batters will be trying that against Williams. He’s better as an 8th inning guy, so your team has an inning to recover if necessary.
The 9th inning closer is a guy like Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians (arguably the best closer in MLB today…even with the blown game against the Tigers). It’s all about speed and movement. One guy told me this summer that Clase had a game in which he threw 5 balls at 105 MPH. Plus he’s throwing a cutter as good or better than the one Mariano Rivera lived off of, and he throws that at 100 mph…something Mariano didn’t do.
Closers have to bring the heat and have control.
Totally agree with this. Williams success depends on hitter chasing bad pitches. He nibbles far more than a close should have to. Hence the walks…
They forgot about Abner Uribe who started off the season as the closer before bad performance and injury ended his season. He’s supposed to be ready for Spring Training.
I would be surprised if Williams isn’t traded in the off-season.
Rod Beck knew a thing or two about closing games. Remember him fondly with his time for the Cubs.
I can also see Misiorowski getting a shot to close. Though primarily a starter, the guy served as a reliever in AAA and threw absolute gas.
I highly doubt the Brewers would turn their best pitching prospect into a closer. Maybe at the end of the season on a playoff run but they’re going to give him every opportunity to be a starter.
Miz has too many issues with control to be a closer.
The Tigers have payroll room and need a lock down bullpen arm (or maybe not given how well the bullpen has meshed since the All star break?). Williams would be a nice add for them along with a starter (Buehler, Verlander, Flaherty?) and at least one big bat (free agent or trade).
I’m rooting for your Tigers, Bummer! 40 year anniversary REVENGE! Praying it happens haha
Perez just put them up 3-2. Crossing my fingers. Kirk Gibson threw out the first pitch to ight so maybe it’s an omen. Wouldn’t that be a great series!!!
Go get ’em in 5! GREAT series, yours and mine haha. All the best, Bummer!
Sorry to hear your Pads didn’t move on dude. I am very surprised it was not Pads-Phils for the NL Championship.
Well, shoot. See ya in ’25! Go get um today Bum!
I’d love to have him in the Phils bullpen next year!
Adames is going to solidify the Dodgers infield for years to come.
I’d flip him. Brewers aren’t a team known for paying relievers huge sums of money and at a $10.5 million salary with a plethora of bullpen arms and more dire needs elsewhere on the team, they can more than afford to trade him.
Baty for Williams.
Who says no?
Both? If the Brewers trade him to a team to be a non-closer in his walk year, good luck to them signing any future closers.
The Brewers don’t plan to ever SIGN a closer anyway. I just don’t think Baty has shown enough to entice the Brewers.
I think you are drastically underestimating Baty. He still has significant trade value and his OPS in AAA is over.900. The Mets still have plans for him and had significant calls on him at the trade deadline.
Baty doesn’t have much trade value. He’s struggled to stick in the majors, and is now out of options. Good chance he’s DFA’d in spring training.
There’s zero chance he gets DFAd. I guess all the teams calling about him at the trade deadline didn’t know what they were doing.
Yeah, he’s near the top of my wishlist for Brewers 3B next year. I don’t see a Williams for Baty trade, but would love to give Baty a real chance at 3B.
He looks like Kelenic 2.0. He had a long look in 2023 and was awful. He was handed the 3B job this spring and absent two weeks; he was awful.
Maybe he figures it out, but I can’t believe the plans for him are anything more than a bench player.
An out of options player who has struggled to perform in the majors is always a DFA candidate regardless of past prospect hype. See Keston Hiura with the Brewers.
He isn’t out of options. Not sure what you are talking about.
He burnt his last option year this year. He’ll have 0 options come spring training 2025.
According to fangraphs, he has 1 more option left. I don’t think they used an option year in 2022.
No he didn’t. He was sent down two years. He has one option year left. The first year he was called up but not sent back down. That doesn’t count.
That 1 option is for 2024. They don’t update the service time and options until after the 1st of the year.
You are incorrect. As soon as you are sent down the option year is used. He has one option year left.
@ReddVencher
If he wasn’t part of the 40 man on OD 2022, was added in August when called up, but not optioned down in 2022, he wouldn’t have used 1 that year
So the options used would’ve been 2023 & this year, leaving 1 more year. I also found a couple articles from this year mentioning he has 1 option year remaining after this season.
Can’t find anything saying he’s out of options, and I imagine the Mets burning his last option would’ve been a story.
You’re incorrect about the optio. Year. You have to be down at least 20 days for the option year to be burned. Looks like Rostee Resource updates throughout the season with options, and only service time is updated after the first of the year. Baty does indeed have 1 more option year. With that said, his trade value still isn’t where you think it is.
I don’t want them to trade him at all. I think he is still going to be good.
Bro, you’re the one who said he’s out of options. Yeah, I’m wrong because he has an option year left, like I said.
If they were significant, he would have been traded. I think you mean there were inquiries from teams looking to buy low.
Edwin Diaz and Devin Williams in the same pen? I can see that causing some issues.
Maybe, but thats the type of quality arm the mets need in that pen. Its a shaky BP.
Trade him for a legitimate third baseman
Good riddance!!
¡Mentiroso!
Not even a Craig Yoho mention? Dude is Trevor Hoffman 2.0
The Brewers have alot of high leverage reliever options without Devin next year. Its an astounding feat when you consider how little money, draft and prospect capital Milwaukee has invested there.
Yoho was an 8th round pick, Abner signed for 85k as an IFA, they gave up a PTBNl and cash considerations for Trevor Megill, Bryan Hudson DFA’d by the Dodgers , etc, etc, etc.
Just amazing work by the scouts and pitching lab.
Here’s hoping Stearns brings that to NY.
Ironically enough almost the entire pen was picked up in the 2 years after Stearns left.
Oh yeah, Williams is gone. No question. Ideally, they’ll try to get an MLB-ready 3B in the deal. Kill two birds with 1 stone. Move Ortiz to his natural SS (where he’s better than Turang). But MLB-ready 3Bs don’t grow on trees. Maybe Baltimore again? They seem to have an unlimited supply of talented, controllable infielders.
DWill to Twins for Festa and Andrew Morris.
DWill to Red Sox for Fitts and Meidroth.
DWill to the Yankees for Vreiling and Jorbit Vivas.