This week's mailbag delves into the Dodgers' rotation for 2025, the likelihood of Cody Bellinger opting out, the Cardinals' reset, the Yankees' infield, and much more.
Ben asks:
I'm curious as to how you expect the Dodgers to address their rotation this offseason. The team is laden with talented starters, yet the number of injuries is astounding. Do you expect the team to continue adopting a high-risk, high-reward approach? Will we see them sign a low upside inning-eater or two as insurance? How likely is a reunion with Buehler, and what might the season-opening rotation look like?
When I consider Yoshinobu Yamamoto, I wouldn't say he had a higher injury risk than any other top starter the Dodgers could've gotten. Nor was Trevor Bauer high-risk, healthwise. Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, and Rich Hill were high injury risk three or four-year deals, but those were eight to ten years ago.
Otherwise, Andrew Friedman has generally gone for one-year starting pitcher deals in free agency: James Paxton, Noah Syndergaard, Tyler Anderson, and Andrew Heaney in recent years. Trade pickups have included Alex Wood, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Glasnow.
I don't know that I see a pattern there, other than eschewing long-term free agent deals for less youthful pitchers. For example, if Max Fried is going to sign for five or six years, I don't expect the Dodgers to do that. Innings eaters have not really been Friedman's thing, with the possible exception of Tyler Anderson coming off a 167-inning campaign.
You could argue that Buehler would be Friedman's type if he was coming from another team. But the Dodgers had all year to try to get him on track this year and failed to do so, so my guess is that they will not re-sign him.
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Tim, your “take” on Friedman and his thinking seems both fair and accurate. Lots of options; but, for the reasons you articulate, I do not see the Dodgers in play for Fried, Burnes, Cole, Snell or Flaherty if they get the number of years their agents will be seeking. I do disagree with your take on Buehler. He sees the value in a one year pillow contract similar to what Teoscar received. Unless Walker really excels in the postseason his market is not going to be very robust and the mutual interest each side seems to have for the other suggests to me he lands back with the Dodgers on a one-year deal.
“Market is not going to be very robust”…Buehler’s best option is clearly returning to the Dodgers.
That’s where he made his name and that’s where his best chance of regaining his form rests. And as you already mentioned, his market is surely not going to be that robust.
Tigers. Chris Fetter works magic on pitchers, and you have the Jack Flaherty precedent.
I think his market for a one-year deal will be pretty strong. While my guess is that he goes elsewhere, there are certainly points in favor of him staying.
Buehler needs a change in scenery, at least if he is serious about regaining his form. Sometimes that is just what’s needed, so many examples of this.
Ben asks
How likely is a reunion with Buehler, and what might the season-opening rotation look like?
Then not a word about Buehler…
Nevermind
I see you said you doubt they re-sign him.
I disagree. If he does well in the post-season they bring him back.
I think a) The Dodgers will get one of the top FAs, Fried would be my guess.. Too much uncertainty at the top of the rotation to not add.
b) at the back end of the rotation, Buehler will have more value to other teams, say, the thrifty Orioles who won’t be in on the top FAs, or the Nats who have had a lot of one-year flipper contracts with down-on-their luck veterans. I think he walks.
It is hardly inconceivable that the Dodgers make Buehler a QO. He needs a year to show what he’s got, and probably some team makes him a single year offer in the neighborhood of $20M.
The crystal ball question and answer was a pretty fun one!
Tim, your “take” on Friedman and his thinking seems both fair and accurate. Lots of options; but, for the reasons you articulate, I do not see the Dodgers in play for Fried, Burnes, Cole, Snell or Flaherty if they get the number of years their agents will be seeking. I do disagree with your take on Buehler. He sees the value in a one year pillow contract similar to what Teoscar received. Unless Walker really excels in the postseason his market is not going to be very robust and the mutual interest each side seems to have for the other suggests to me he lands back with the Dodgers on a one-year deal.
Teoscar was coming off of a 26 home run 93 rbi season with no health concerns.. Buehler hasn’t been good or healthy for the last 3 years.
There’s a big difference there. Unless Walker pitches out of his mind in the postseason. It’s time to move on from him and May.
Darren – Teoscar was also coming off a season in which his home ballpark was the most pitcher-friendly in MLB, as his splits prove even more.
It always amazes me how so much time and effort is spent on hundreds of somewhat useless analytics, yet critical data such as Park Factor is basically ignored.
Well, park factor as a stat one season at a time isn’t actually very useful. There are a lot of statistical anomalies. For something like this you need like ten years of data, not just one.
Not so true.. Fenway park is usually at top of the league for doubles. Courtesy of short wall in LF and not so friendly RF for LH hitters makes it not power friendly, unless are oppo friendly.
Some parks don’t really change, year in or out unless use the old Bill Veeck, OF on wheels from game to game trick.. Which didn’t last long before busted..
john – Agreed, but Fenway has changed a lot over the past 22 years.
The old 406 Club made it less hitter friendly, but once it was removed balls carried a lot better like they used to in Fenway.
And of course additional field level seating took away even more foul space, as Fenway has the least in MLB if I recall correctly.
Now Fenway is back to being among the most hitter friendly, second only to Coors Field of course. And like you said, Fenway is still the best park to hit doubles.
I’m not saying all parks change every year. I’m saying one year isn’t enough data to go by because there is randomness at play.
I remember when the Red Sox traded for Tony Armas and the quants did an analysis of his fly balls in Oakland superimposed onto Fenway Park, concluding that he wouldn’t hit too many home runs. He lead the league.
Pitchers approach hitters according to the park they’re playing in, not independently of it.
Hitters adjust their approach to pitch selection as well. In Armas case, it was his second year that was tremendous as there sometimes is an adjustment, even staying in the same league.
hayzee – Excellent point!
Park Factor though is comprised of every MLB batter’s stats in each park, compared to their stats in other parks. So it doesn’t matter who plays for the Red Sox, as every visiting player’s stats are also compared to all the other parks they plan in.
I don’t think Tony Armas ever made a hitting adjustment in his life.
whyhazee- remember Armas also. he was a crusher, problem was a lot like Rice’s tho, where many of his weren’t high enough to clear the wall. without looking think he did league year once before age got to him in ’85, like all at once around the AS break onward he was toast.
john – What I remember most about Tony is he’s the only player in MLB history to have 4 different body parts included in his name. LOL!!!
The Dodgers 2025 rotation is going to include 3 guys making at least $30m annually in Glasnow, Ohtani and Yamamoto.
Their offensive firepower comes from Ohtani, Betts and Freeman, All big $$$ signings.
I’m not really sure what point Tim is trying to make here, but the Dodgers started using $$$ to plug holes some time ago. To act like they don’t operate that way is kind of naive.
They aren’t really the same organization that repurposed guys like Muncy and Justin Turner into stars or turned out a homegrown MVP in Bellinger.