The Astros officially introduced Tatsuya Imai at Daikin Park this morning. The surprising three-year deal continues what has been a pitching-focused offseason for a Houston team losing Framber Valdez to free agency. The Astros also acquired Mike Burrows in a trade that cost two of their better prospects while adding potential back-end starters Ryan Weiss and Nate Pearson on cheap one-year deals.
Manager Joe Espada said at Imai’s press conference that the club is likely to lean on a six-man rotation frequently throughout the season (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). That could be the case from day one, as the skipper indicated they may begin the year with an extra starter. Espada pointed to the team’s heavy early-season workload. The Astros only have two off days between Opening Day on March 26 and April 22. Barring rainouts, they’ll play 26 games in their first 28 days.
Hunter Brown is the clear #1 starter with Valdez expected to head elsewhere. Imai and Burrows slot into the middle of the rotation, while Cristian Javier is lined up for a spot somewhere in that 2-4 mix. Options for the final rotation spot or two include Weiss, Pearson, AJ Blubaugh, Spencer Arrighetti, Jason Alexander, Lance McCullers Jr. and prospect Miguel Ullola. Weiss, who signed for $2.6MM after pitching to a 2.87 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate in Korea, probably enters camp at the top of that group.
There are durability and/or experience questions with everyone who slots behind Brown. Javier has been a quality starter at his best but was up-and-down upon his return from Tommy John surgery in the second half of 2025. This will be Burrows’ first full season in the big leagues. Neither Imai nor Weiss have pitched in MLB. Arrighetti and McCullers slogged through injuries last year and were ineffective when healthy. Blubaugh has three career starts. Alexander, J.P. France and Colton Gordon all look more like depth arms than rotation stalwarts.
Given the innings questions for almost everyone after Brown, it’s sensible to ease their early-season workloads. That would leave one fewer spot in the bullpen given the 13-pitcher limit, however. Houston has six relievers who are either slam dunks or near-locks for the MLB roster if healthy: Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, Steven Okert, Bennett Sousa, Bryan King and Enyel De Los Santos. They’re also bringing Rule 5 pick Roddery Muñoz to camp and would need to carry him on the MLB roster to keep his contractual rights. Spring Training injuries and any late-offseason additions will change the picture.
Eventually all teams will use a 6 man rotation. It’s the way the whole game is trending
The final eventuality will be no rotation at all. 13 pitchers, all relievers. Plug in different guys for different games and scenarios. Less theoretical stress if they only pitch an inning every day or two. Greater need for long men, who can go 2 or 3 innings, but get rid of true starters all together.
Every game will be a bullpen game.
Starters cost money, but relievers are cheap.
If you switch to that, the better ones will still earn more.
But not what good starters get currently.
The game is growing every year. Soon, there will be a 70-inning per year pitcher that puts up a 0.8 FIP that earns $50m per year. Maybe not soon, but 25 years lol
Eventually there won’t even be a ball. It will just be two rats each carrying a gun, hunting each other in a maze while we watch from above.
And I’m all for it
Ummmm how the heck do you know about my Saturday nights
@robluca I’ve only gotten to toothpick crossbows mounted on their backs that are triggered by their tails. If you have trained rats to use tiny guns, we need to talk. Because that’s the future.
Maybe a selective breeding program to get them thumbs.
There is a reason starters are starters and relievers are relievers, relievers are not good enough to be starters. Don’t see the 5 man rotation going away soon, as 6 dilutes quality of starts and 6 man starters lose 6 starts compared ro 5.
You could’ve said the same thing about the 4 or 3 man rotation Arnold. It’s just the nature of the way MLB is trending. Especially with how Japanese pitchers are becoming more common in the league.
The problem I see with the 6 man is starters will become more fragile. In the good old days you could count on 3-4 of the 5 to make a 9 inning start. Even 15 or so years ago you would see it.
Part of the them getting more fragile is the teams babying them. They also are eating better and working out. The old guys drank whiskey a lot. They kept in shape but not body builder shape. Some of the big strong muscle bound guys are oft injured. Stanton is one he is so strong he looks like he could poop diamonds. The other I am blanking on his name he was drafted by the Ms. He has always been too jacked. They need strength of course but the long flexible kind they can fall hit a wall or dive for a ball. I am sure there are guys that are close to be cut like that but more have the old six pack. They are of course in great shape just not jacked.
Hopefully we don’t get into the 6 man rotation too soon. Try it to give pitchers an extra day off. That is when you need a good opener that can give you 3 innings. You know the rest.
“Being unhealthy is better for you actually”
@noquarter for every guy that “drank whiskey a lot” and had success there were probably dozens that washed out. Compassrose reads like a boomer Facebook post about how they drank from the hose and didn’t wear helmets, but still survived. Ignoring those that didn’t and the fact their brains are poisoned with lead.
They throw a dht-ton garder more often. Max effort. Thats all anyone needs to know.
@Arnold
It depends on the quality 1 thru 6. I’m the case of the Yanks, by mid 2026 or going into 2027 the Yanks could have a rotation mix of Cole, Freid, Rondon, Gil, Warren and Schlittler with Elmer Rodriguez possibly knocking on the door. After 1-3 they’re may not be any real discernment between 4-6. Of course that’s assuming they all come back healthy and back to their usual level of performance. It might be worthwhile to go with a6 mam to ease the innings on those recovering (Cole, Schmidt), those that are a possible injury risk (Gil) and those begging to build their innings up towards 200 (Schlittler). More than likely they’ll send someone as trade bait or send one to the pen and use them as a swing man.
I think Colorado will be the first to do this
It’s been about 50 years since teams adopted the 5-man rotation, so I don’t think we’re anywhere near having staffs of 13 relievers. 6-man rotations have just recently become a thing, so you’re probably looking at another 50 years or more before the transition beyond the 6-man rotations takes place.
50 years since teams adopted the 5 man? Sounds like the game is due for a change. Maybe you’re right but the way teams chase velocity and the amount invested in top pitchers I expect more will embrace this sooner than the year 2075.
I think its gotten to the point where you simply cant keep doing what the leagues doing and be successful in that ball park.
These guys have to compete with the Dodgers, Padres, Giants and Dbacks. Who are all above average teams in their own right.
They dont have a chance unless the offense is elite and your playing guys 3 innings max and the next fresh arm up whether that’s internal or the waiver wire.
My fear is brining in who they have wont change this approach and Colorado is going to continue killing premium prospects on horrible ratios.
Rather than save all that money on pitching and just have a premium offense.
So someone with Paul Skenes ability is going to be a long reliever? Right.
Dollander has a 6 era.
Why destroy a studio starters career for Colorado sake.
You cant trade him for much with those numbers.
Colorado shouldn’t go after elite starter that are going to command high salaries.
Instead you focus on all relief pitching and swing men.
If skenes is avaliable you pass if your Colorado and take the best bat available.
What is a starter ? Is it the guy who throws the first pitch or the guy who pitches the most innings ? There will always be starters (simply or possibly called something else) because factually due to roster size and ability or not to pitch on consecutive days.
The likelihood is a move to 6 man as it reduces the risk of injury and makes the SP more effective as the regular season goes on. Already the change exists , but in reverse – 5 man to 3 man in the playoffs.And equally why Pitching contracts have reached a plateau as paying a guy for 26-32 days of play is less valuable than someone who does 150-162 days worth.
I doubt that. There’s a reason why most SP tend to be the cream of the crop and usually a #4 starter is a better pitcher than a middle relief pitcher. Mariano Rivera, the greatest closer ever, was a failed SP.If the Yanks felt he could be even a decent #3 then they might have kept in that situation. I’d rather get 6 above average innings from Cole than 2 above average innings from Will Warren.
I’d actually guess the opposite. Four starters, no more than 4 innings per start, then piggybackers.
MLB went from 1 man rotations to 2 to 3 to 4 to 5 and now teams adopting 6 but you see a trend reversal seam? Doesn’t seem likely to me
The teams what can afford the real starting pitchers will continue. Everyone else will eventually find a new way. They’re all trying to skin the cat in the same way but not enough cats to go around. Someone will start skinning skunks/possums/squirrels or whatever costs less
Colorado already did that back in 2012. It was 100% unsuccessful and probably ruined the career of Christian Friedrich. It was bad enough that I very nearly dropped my Colorado fandom altogether and would have had they not stopped after one season..
Some people have a rotation of Brown, Javier, Imai, McCullers Jr., and Burrows. I find that not a good option. Instead, Brown, Imai, Javier, Burrows, and Arrighetti as an opening day rotation for the first 5. The 6 spot will rotate between the bullpen and the rotation, I see Ryan Weiss picking up the 6th spot.
Brown, Imai, Javier, Burrows, Arrighetti, and Weiss sounds like a contender’s rotation. While Hader, Abreu, King, Sousa, Okert, Blubaugh, and Munoz sound like a solid bullpen. There are spring training auditions though.
McCullers Jr. is simply broken. Arrighetti was going to take a step forward, and was ineffective because he lost almost all of the season and faced a ramped up lineup when he was in just coming out of spring training form.
Brown is going to be the clear #1 starter with or without Valdez. I don’t think we need to add much more, more depth would be helpful. We really need to focus on a LHB though.
Agreed, a healthy Arrighetti should have no problem making this rotation. He could even end up being the number two after Brown, depending on how good Imai is and whether Javier can return to form.
I’m mostly worried that Arrighetti’s elbow is not gonna hold up. Almost every time a pitcher misses significant time with elbow soreness, TJ happens within a year. Other thing to consider, of their 10 or so potential rotation options, he’s one of the only ones with minor league options.
Everyone except France and Alexander have options.
Pearson doesn’t have options. Don’t know about Weiss. Obviously McCullers doesn’t
Weiss has 2, Pearson and McCullers don’t though, I was thinking about Gordon and Ullola.
I’m not even considering Ulloa and Gordon as options at this point. Ulloa isn’t ready and Gordon is an emergency only option.
Exactly, with a healthy season for Arrighetti, we likely wouldn’t need Imai,
Id definitely give McCuller’s a look in March.
He had some blow ups in ’25, also flashed a bit:
05/28 – 6.0IP 5H 3ER 12K 1BB against the A’s
06/03 – 6.0IP 2H 0ER 7K 1BB against the Pirates
He is definitely a liability until he is consistent but when he is on he can win games.
Im for signing Framber for five seasons, he is the heart of the Astros. Pay Framber and the Astros are ready to go.
McCullers has lost velocity, so his stuff is all breaking balls. When hitters are patient, they get walks, he ends up throwing a ton of pitches and gets a 4 inning start. He’s almost cooked, IMHO.
You do not know the Astros. Framber is also in decline.,
I know they won a lot of games last season with a great bullpen that struggled down the stretch. I know that Jeremy Pena is a good player that should probably be traded. I know signing Framber and Javier costs well less than extending Hunter Brown and that Brown’s injury risk, based on his arm slot and his pitch mix is far higher than that of Framber.
Framber is a sinker ball pitcher that relies heavily on a three pitch mix. His curveball was every bit as good last season as it has been over his entire career.
He is 32, it takes motivation beyond the money to pitch well into your late thirties. Framber likes his team, likely shooting for 10 yrs service time. A four year deal is a safe bet.
McCuller’s has the pitch mix that can work well despite losing some velo on his fastball. He is still getting good movement on his breaking stuff. Good changeup. Has the cutter too. AIR rates were way up, he is hanging breaking balls in the zone. He will tighten that up with innings. I’d say velo on the fastball isn’t that big of a concern. Keeping the ball on the ground is.
If they do that all year they’ll end up paying for Imai – who has never pitched in the majors – $1m per start. Then he leaves, unless he sucks. Liking that deal less and less.
He’s getting 18M in 2026, 2M signing bonus and 16M salary. He’s been relatively healthy might get 27 starts out him.
That doesn’t include the fee they’re paying to his Japanese team. If he stays just one year, which is very likely if he ends up being good, they will have paid out $27m and change for those 25-27 starts.
I believe that if he opts out the astros will only be on the hook to pay the posting fee on the 18m (so yeah I think the mlbtr article describing the posting fee is incorrect) but 18m * 1.2 =21.6m which is a lot for 27 starts
If he’s good enough to opt out, he probably helped the Astros make the playoffs. I can live with that.
Going the contrarian mindset every time doesn’t make you look cool, seamaholic/seamaholic 2.
Sounds like a luxury problem.
I love MLBTR, but this seems like pure speculation. No quotes from a front office person or a beat writer. As much as I enjoy this website, I don’t enjoy this type of random speculation..
Rumors, they had a quote from Joe Espada. MLBTR just beat the beat writers. They only speculated on the order of the rotation. Which is kind of what they do.
Yeah, I missed it. Sorry to all.
Also if I’m not wrong it’s been mentioned in Chandler Rome’s podcast.
“ Manager Joe Espada said at Imai’s press conference that the club is likely to lean on a six-man rotation frequently throughout the season (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). That could be the case from day one, as the skipper indicated they may begin the year with an extra starter. Espada pointed to the team’s heavy early-season workload.”
Straight from the article above
Yup right there in the article
Ah yes, the yearly “[insert team] could pitch 6 man rotation” article. Happens literally every year.
Injuries always sort the 6-man rotation conversation at some point.
But I do love the Astro’s pitching depth this year. Should keep everyone fresh for the season.
Definitely leaning toward my AL favorites which I really can’t believe I’m saying.
Dodgers stuck with the 6 man last year despite experiencing SP injuries
I’m not sure that I, me personally, would call the Dodgers a 6-man rotation in the traditional sense it has always been spoken of: every SP going 5+ innings consistently. I’d call it a hybrid-6 man considering they use openers and their starters might only go 2 IP as the plan.
But by definition you have me in a check mate sir. Good example.
I don’t know how you could look at the Astros and think they could be AL favorites. That just boggles my mind. They aren’t even going to be favorites to win their own division.
I’m waiting for the people that say that Seattle will regress next year and still have most of not there entire core plus they own a pipeline of talent
I would say the Mariners are slightly better, just like 1 percent better or something. Still who said AL favorites we need better offense.
Behind my opinion:
They won 87 games last year with a lot going wrong. I’m expecting a big bounce back from the lineup due to the following
1.) Healthy Yordan
2.) Altuve having a year to settle into LF
3.) Correa back and in a competitive environment
4.) depth of pitching as I stated previously
5.) breakout seasons for Pena
6.) breakout season for Cam Smith
I could be wrong but I like them in the long run. If Yordan doesn’t stay healthy though that changes a lot in my eyes.
Love your support but I feel like your Yankees have a higher chance when you finally do your thing.
Isn’t that cheating, next theyre gonna go with 10 fielders when Noone looking- leave it to the Astros.
6 starting pitchers? Irrelevant. Everyone wants to know how many trash cans they’ll use this year. All that banging has to be tough on their trash cans.
That’s why the original trash cans left via free agency and got replaced with cheaper trash cans they where too injury prone after there rookie season
My trash can’s fine and I live in Houston. The toughest thing is people burning other people’s trash can for fun.
The front 4 look pretty set. They have as many as 6 candidates for SP5, and of them I believe only Arrighetti and Blubaugh have minor league options remaining. Starting with a 6 man rotation would be nice to give them more time to figure out who to keep, in addition to added rest.
If we were to go by Steamer projections, the best rotation is:
1. Brown
2. Burrows
3. McCullers
4. Weiss
5. Alexander / Arrighetti
Steamer absolutely hates Javier and thinks he is on Pearson/JP France tier of AAA depth quality. Very interesting.
They’re huffing glue if they think McCullers, Weiss, Alexander and Arrighetti are all better options than Imai and Javier.
Yeah, McCullers is going to be their #3 starter. He is going to be lucky to even be on the roster as a mop-up reliever. OmG.
Also, Alexander is merely depth and can’t start on a healthy team.
It’s Brown and pray for the other team #4&5 starter.
Honestly, until Imai shows what he can do- THIS rotation doesn’t scare anyone
The only thing about a six man rotation is it leaves your pen one short.
If Nate Pearson is in the running for the 6th spot of a 6-man rotation, you probably shouldn’t be running a 6-man rotation.
Ryan Weiss
De Los Santos is a lock to make the team as a reliever? Come on!!
Should be moving to all bullpen and no starters. Starters don’t even go 5 innings and are constantly injured so it makes more sense and is cheaper
Good starters still go 6+.
I can’t think of any idea more foolish in MLB than using a 6-man rotation at any point in the season. It means Hunter Brown, their best pitcher by a mile, would be watching as a group of lesser starting pitchers are given innings he could have reasonably been pitching over the course of the season. And then their second best pitcher pitches fewer innings, then their third… That undoubtedly handicaps a team, as they try to let everyone participate more, but at a huge, practically invisible cost. This is the exactly how a manager can single-handedly ruin a team, by giving too many AB’s or IP’s to lesser players. It’s amazing to me how some managers do that with such nonchalance. And the effects of doing so can only be seen in the most macro of views, but it could easily cost a team 1 or 2 total wins over the course of a season, and often, that’s the difference between a playoff team and one that just missed. Every single game, inning, AB, and pitch matters.
They could run a 6 man rotation and still keep Brown on a normal 5 day schedule. One guy would get an extra day of rest each time through the rotation whenever Brown comes up.
Well that would probably rule out a Verlander reunion.