NPB’s Chunichi Dragons To Post Shinnosuke Ogasawara

The Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have granted left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara’s request to be posted for MLB teams, per a report from Yahoo Japan. He’ll be available to big league clubs in free agency this winter and is being represented by WME. A formal date for his posting has not yet been determined, but he’ll have 45 days to negotiate with MLB clubs once posted. If no deal is reached, Ogasawara will return to the Dragons for the 2025 season.

Ogasawara just turned 27 years old earlier this month. He’s already a veteran of parts of nine NPB seasons, having made his Central League debut as an 18-year-old back in 2016. Listed at 5’11” and 183 pounds, he’s of slighter frame than the typical big league starter but has started at least 23 games and topped 140 innings in each of the past four seasons. That includes a career-high 160 2/3 innings with the Dragons in 2023.

This past season, Ogasawara tossed 144 1/3 innings and notched a solid 3.12 ERA with an outstanding 3.7% walk rate — the best mark of his career. Unfortunately, that pinpoint command came with a career-worst 13.6% strikeout rate that will limit Ogasawara’s appeal. To his credit, Ogasawara has missed far more bats in the past, punching out 24% of opponents as recently as 2022 and fanning 20.1% of opponents in 2023. In both instances, he had higher but nevertheless strong walk rates (6.7% and 6.1%, respectively).

Video of Ogasawara reveals a pitcher who sits in the 91-93 mph range with his four-seamer, complementing the pitch with a low-80s changeup and a slow knuckle curve that sits in the low 70s. Neither Ogasawara’s frame nor velocity stand out, but both are relatively comparable to those of 5’10”, 175-pound Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga. Ogasawara’s camp may try to make that comparison, but Imanaga consistently posted lower earned run averages and far superior strikeout rates in NPB (29.5% in his final season with the BayStars). That said, Ogasawara is three years younger than Imanaga was at the time of posting. A multi-year deal seems plausible, though likely not at the same levels as Imanaga’s $53MM guarantee (which can grow to $79MM based on club/player options).

For those in need of a reminder or an introduction to the NPB/MLB posting system, NPB clubs are allowed to “post” players for MLB teams to bid on prior to those players reaching free agency for the first time (nine years of service, under NPB rules). Any major league team can negotiate with the player and his representatives to negotiate a contract for any amount — provided the player is at least 25 years old and has at least six seasons of professional experience. (Players under 25 and/or with fewer than six years of experience are deemed “amateurs” by MLB and restricted to minor league deals and hard-capped signing bonuses.)

The posting window lasts 45 days but can reach a conclusion earlier, depending on when the player in question strikes a deal to his liking. In addition to paying the player the agreed-upon guarantees in the contract, the MLB team will also be on the hook for a release fee to the player’s former team. That fee is equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Contractual factors like club options, incentives based on innings/plate appearances, awards bonuses, etc. are all subject to being included in the release fee as well, once those earnings are unlocked.