The Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have granted left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara’s request to be posted for MLB teams, per a report from Yahoo Japan. He’ll be available to big league clubs in free agency this winter and is being represented by WME. A formal date for his posting has not yet been determined, but he’ll have 45 days to negotiate with MLB clubs once posted. If no deal is reached, Ogasawara will return to the Dragons for the 2025 season.
Ogasawara just turned 27 years old earlier this month. He’s already a veteran of parts of nine NPB seasons, having made his Central League debut as an 18-year-old back in 2016. Listed at 5’11” and 183 pounds, he’s of slighter frame than the typical big league starter but has started at least 23 games and topped 140 innings in each of the past four seasons. That includes a career-high 160 2/3 innings with the Dragons in 2023.
This past season, Ogasawara tossed 144 1/3 innings and notched a solid 3.12 ERA with an outstanding 3.7% walk rate — the best mark of his career. Unfortunately, that pinpoint command came with a career-worst 13.6% strikeout rate that will limit Ogasawara’s appeal. To his credit, Ogasawara has missed far more bats in the past, punching out 24% of opponents as recently as 2022 and fanning 20.1% of opponents in 2023. In both instances, he had higher but nevertheless strong walk rates (6.7% and 6.1%, respectively).
Video of Ogasawara reveals a pitcher who sits in the 91-93 mph range with his four-seamer, complementing the pitch with a low-80s changeup and a slow knuckle curve that sits in the low 70s. Neither Ogasawara’s frame nor velocity stand out, but both are relatively comparable to those of 5’10”, 175-pound Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga. Ogasawara’s camp may try to make that comparison, but Imanaga consistently posted lower earned run averages and far superior strikeout rates in NPB (29.5% in his final season with the BayStars). That said, Ogasawara is three years younger than Imanaga was at the time of posting. A multi-year deal seems plausible, though likely not at the same levels as Imanaga’s $53MM guarantee (which can grow to $79MM based on club/player options).
For those in need of a reminder or an introduction to the NPB/MLB posting system, NPB clubs are allowed to “post” players for MLB teams to bid on prior to those players reaching free agency for the first time (nine years of service, under NPB rules). Any major league team can negotiate with the player and his representatives to negotiate a contract for any amount — provided the player is at least 25 years old and has at least six seasons of professional experience. (Players under 25 and/or with fewer than six years of experience are deemed “amateurs” by MLB and restricted to minor league deals and hard-capped signing bonuses.)
The posting window lasts 45 days but can reach a conclusion earlier, depending on when the player in question strikes a deal to his liking. In addition to paying the player the agreed-upon guarantees in the contract, the MLB team will also be on the hook for a release fee to the player’s former team. That fee is equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Contractual factors like club options, incentives based on innings/plate appearances, awards bonuses, etc. are all subject to being included in the release fee as well, once those earnings are unlocked.
Acoss1331
So basically he’s not a power pitcher, but misses bats and doesn’t walk guys. Not sure what his groundball percentage is, but if he’s a groundball pitcher, he’ll need a good defense behind him. He’ll need to go to a team that doesn’t require a power pitcher as a 1-3 guy, but more of a 4 or 5 starter with a good defense behind him if he induces a lot of groundball outs.
numberoneslayerfan
i want to see the babip on this guy, usually it’s not rosy with these kinds of pitchers
JohnJasoJingleHeimerSchmidt
His BABIP from 2023 to 2024 was .298, which is about the same as someone like Sonny Gray.
In fact, basing it purely on numbers, Sonny Gray is a pretty solid comp for the past two years for Ogasawara.
deweybelongsinthehall
Is there a “calculator” that could convert Japan stats to U.S. equivalent? An ERA of just north of 3.00 seems great but unless he’s got super stuff, he might get hammered in the U.S.
karkat
We don’t have nearly enough data points available to attempt something like that. Far too many variables at play.
As an example, Shota Imanaga’s NPB lifetime ERA was 3.18, but he put up a lower 2.91 ERA with the Cubs this year
JohnJasoJingleHeimerSchmidt
We can literally calculate BABIP, pretty easily.
Now, if we want to make a statement about what that data might mean, that’s a different story. But calculating it is simple math.
karkat
@JohnJaso: I was replying to the question about calculating projected ERA in the MLB from NPB, not you.
I know the comments section doesn’t nest replies correctly (and that people are just itching to tell someone they’re wrong online), but come on, my comment doesn’t even make sense as a response to yours: obviously we can calculate BABIP, you did it in your comment! My provided example was even about ERA.
kodion
JohnJasoJingleHeimerSchmidt
Looked back to the end of the dark days and got Stroman (who, by pitching over 140 innings this year, unlocked an $18 million player option) as a workload comp. Because, like Stro, he’ll need good defense behind him to be REALLY effective, that might limit the market a bit. Not for that money, but I’d be interested in the possibility of picking up a 3-4-5 starter if the skills translate.
stymeedone
Don’t forget to convert the numbers from metric!
JohnJasoJingleHeimerSchmidt
You obviously clicked reply to my comment, because I got the notification of your reply… to my comment.
If it was meant for someone else, cool. But you don’t get to play an arrogant, lecturing tone when you don’t even know how to reply to the proper comment.
karkat
@JohnJaso: Replies and notifications on this website don’t function properly once a conversation has reached the maximum indent (2 nested replies from the top-level). Once that max indent level is reached, multiple people in the thread get notified about replies as if it was a reply to their own post. For example, I got a notification from kodion when they were explicitly replying to you, because we’re all past the max indent level for replies. It’s been a problem in the comments section on this site for years.
And, again, a very basic reading of my reply should have indicated to you that I wasn’t replying to you anyway. I do now realize that I should explicitly call out who I’m replying to if it isn’t a top-level comment, though.
Love your username though!
JohnJasoJingleHeimerSchmidt
“We don’t have nearly enough data points available to attempt something like that. Far too many variables at play.”
That could *easily* be construed as an argument against me calculating his BABIP. I have no idea what information you know about BABIP calculations, so no, it wasn’t “obvious” or “basic.” To continue to insult my intelligence because it seemed that you replied to me, and thus I responded to you, is unbecoming and honestly, makes you look like an a-hole.
It’s nice you acknowledged your wrong-doing and how you should respond to comments going forward. If only next you can learn to not insult people over something that was YOUR MISTAKE, that’d be great, too.
karkat
Don’t worry, I won’t make the mistake of assuming basic reading comprehension again 😉
JohnJasoJingleHeimerSchmidt
Don’t worry, I won’t make the mistake of assuming you’re a decent person again.
JohnJasoJingleHeimerSchmidt
And again, I quoted, directly, the bit that made it seem likely that you were responding to me. Let’s not pretend that it’s so far and outlandish to think it may have been directed my way.
After all, if you can’t figure out how to respond to someone on the internet, is it really that outrageous to think you don’t know how BABIP is calculated, and thus, you might balk at what I wrote (and what you responded to)?
It’s not. And at this point, you’re more interested in being an a$s than you are at acknowledging you were wrong. Just be a decent person and don’t assume people are stupid when you don’t even know what you’re doing…
FemboySportsFan!
reds, blue jays, padres
runningwithnailclippers
If the Reds resigned Martinez and this fella, than it may make sense.
FemboySportsFan!
Martinez is a perfect fit with both the reds and padres, he’s found success mainly on those teams.
YankeesBleacherCreature
He’s going to need to increase his changeup velocity to fool anybody.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Offer one year $10 million with a team of two additional years at same rate or a $1 million buyout for each year with both to be decided by December 1, 2025. Worst case scenario, a team owes him $12 million for one year, that is Lance Lynn money last year, without the dent in the team buffet.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Across
Wait until Winterfell and it’ll be nice having a dragon on your side
Acoss1331
Not unless that dragon gets killed immediately by a few spears!
Stallionduck
He’s worse than Kohei Arihara, and Arihara did badly in MLB (likely due to injuries) so I wouldn’t recommend signing him to an MLB deal.
MacGromit
@Stallion
Whew, so glad you shared your recommendations. Be sure to send it to all the MLB teams, they’ve been anxiously awaiting your scouting report and opinion.
lol. Something about how you worded the last sentence made me laugh.
Stallionduck
It mostly has to do with his career walk rate being 7.7% which is considerably worse than Kohei Arihara and having a strikeout rate just .8% higher than Arihara prior to Arihara’s signing with the Rangers. His stuff isn’t particularly outstanding either as stated in the article above.
FOmeOLS
Ummm…his entire comment was only one sentence.
FOmeOLS
I just was looking up Arihara to make exactly the same point.
Clofreesz
Potentially a reliable No. 4 or 5 starter.
TerryTurnbuckle
Ugh. Here we go again.
swagsuperawesomeepiccoolman123
i say this every time i see you comment
NYCityRiddler
When I say nobody cares about this, I mean NOBODY. Ahahahaha!
niel.marshal
No info about Shosei Togo (Yomiuri Giants) ?
Dude was great in the last 3 years pitching with the Giants.
2022 12-8 25 GS 171 IP 2.62 ERA
2023 12-5 24 GS 170 IP 2.38 ERA
2024 12-8 26 GS 180 IP 1.95 ERA
Also, hope the Dodgers sign Sugano and Sasaki
oldgfan
Duck the Fodgers !
Acoss1331
Dodgers already have Ohtani and Yamamoto, let’s get some other teams in on these NPB players…
mrkinsm
5 K/9 IP isn’t going to get it done. His repertoire sounds like one of the few pitchers that is posted who doesn’t end up finding the deal he was hoping for, though his youth makes him highly intriguing. If someone gets him I’m sure they’ll be hoping for the 2022 version.
kingbum
I don’t think he throws hard enough. He has pinpoint control but there just hasn’t been many Greg Madduxes out there. You kinda got to sit around 95 in today’s game. He’s a project, I don’t think it’s worth the posting fee. You want a 92 mph fastball call my brother that’s what he threw in high school.
ATLbravos
perfect for the braves to replace morton with.. just a 4-5 guy that eats innings
Hopefully
I would definitely love for my tigers to finally sign an international free agent Japanese player this guy could end up being a really solid number three you know like an Era between 3.30 and 3.75 really low walk rate and you never know maybe since we have like the best pitching coach in baseball maybe he can get fastball up a couple ticks so along with his good walk rate and strikeout percentage at least League average or just above he would be a really good starter if not I’m sure he can be a really good bullpen guy Chris ilitch it’s time to start spending you seen what we did this year go out get this guy and sasaki then free agent wise go out there and get bregman Pete Alonso and sign flaherty back we will golden baby
FOmeOLS
Seriously, I don’t get the fascination with strikeouts. A team with an excellent infield defense should do fine with such a pitcher who gets ground balls and doesn’t walk people.
Depending on this guy’s GB rate, he might be a solid signing.
Rays in the Bay
Not sure there will be too much interest for him. Maybe Dodgers or Giants or Seahawks sign him. Or maybe Red Sox. Either way I don’t really expect a lot of offers
unglar
I like him for the Seahawks, the cardinals, the new Las Vegas team and yeah the giants really look to need some help at 2-5 after the beating they took last game.
Rays in the Bay
Lol! Got my wires mixed there. Had both baseball and soccer on the mind