While we’ve started to see some movement in the pitching market, with Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi both coming off the board this week, we’ve yet to see a prominent bat come off the board. Some of that is just the naturally slow pace of MLB’s free agency structure, but there’s also surely an element of Juan Soto holding things up to an extent. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear as though this will be a protracted free agent saga that lingers well into the new year.
Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media reported earlier this week that five clubs had made offers to Soto: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. There’s been some back-and-forth reporting as to whether offers from each have been formally submitted, but semantics aside, that quintet appears to be the top set of bidders for Soto at the moment.
Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports that Soto and agent Scott Boras asked for initial offers to be submitted by Thanksgiving, so even if one of those clubs hasn’t yet submitted a formal offer just yet, it’s likely only a matter of hours before said offer is presented. Per Blum, there’s a growing belief that Soto could make a decision at or even before this year’s Winter Meetings, which take place from Dec. 8-11 in Dallas.
It should be noted that the current wave of offers being submitted is not a collection of “best and final” offers. With any free agent of this magnitude, there will be plenty of back-and-forth negotiations. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic tweets that this initial wave of offers is considered “preliminary,” with an additional round of offers likely coming in next week. Talks will intensify as teams are weeded out in the run-up to the Winter Meetings. Kuty, like Blum, suggests that landmark offseason event as a likely endpoint to Soto’s free agency.
Of the five known suitors, the Dodgers are perhaps the least likely. That might’ve been true even before Los Angeles struck their five-year deal with Snelll last night — one that guarantees him $182MM (with some deferred salary but also a huge up-front $52MM signing bonus). ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported several weeks back that while the Dodgers will be in the mix they’re not expected to chase Soto at all costs. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic offered a similar thinking last night in his breakdown of the Snell deal, suggesting that while the Dodgers will of course remain apprised of where Soto’s bidding lands, they could also be simply trying to drive up the price for more serious bidders in New York, Boston and Toronto.
To that end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that the Red Sox are indeed quite serious in their pursuit of Soto. They’ve sought to sell Soto on the organization’s history of prominent left-handed hitters who’ve taken advantage of Fenway Park’s Green Monster and also enlisted franchise icons Pedro Martinez and David Ortiz to pitch the free agent slugger on the team’s history of touted stars from Soto’s native Dominican Republic.
Meanwhile, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe adds that the Sox don’t view Soto and adding a top-of-the-rotation arm as an either-or scenario. Even if they succeeded in landing Soto, the Sox would do so in simultaneous pursuit of a top-end starter. Red Sox president Sam Kennedy already signaled a willingness to exceed the luxury tax, and Speier notes that the Sox don’t view the $241MM tax threshold as any sort of hard cap. They’re currently $70MM shy of that level, per RosterResource’s estimates.
It’s not yet clear whether any other clubs could jump into the mix late in the bidding process. Phillies owner John Middleton stated earlier in the winter that he didn’t mind being a “stalking horse” on Soto, and there were reports that the Phils planned to meet with him at some point, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported Monday that the Phillies have yet to even speak to Boras about Soto specifically. The Giants were an oft-speculated suitor heading into the winter, but they’ve not yet met with Soto and reports have since indicated they may actually scale back payroll rather than spend as aggressively as some anticipated.
Mets
giant – I am leaning that way too.
As for the Red Sox, one aspect nobody has mentioned yet is the bad reputation the team has earned over the past 5 years. They have a history of not only being cheap, but also lying.
Kenley was furious that he signed with them based on the promise they would GFIN …. and of course they lied.
Add to that the way they’ve treated star players like Mookie, Xander and Sale …. that’s not something a player like Soto would ignore.
If the Sox do sign him, they will have to pay a lot more than every other team …. I just don’t see that happening. But I’d be perfectly content if they sign one of Eovaldi or Burnes, acquire Crochet and a good closer like Scott or Hensley.
This is all just pure bs (and I’m far from a Sox fan). There is no such reputation.
seam – There’s like a million articles out there about Kenley, the Xander and Mookie and Sale debacles, the lack of acquiring talent in the offseason, and 3 straight years of doing virtually nothing at the trade deadline despite the fact they were in contention each time.
What do you have to support your opinion? I’ll wait.
Soto will take most money and not care about anything else.
Fletch – Tell that to Teo and many other free agents who turned down similar or better offers from the Red Sox because of their lack of commitment to winning.
Losing is not fun. I know you can’t relate, but most employees want to enjoy the work they do.
And you of all people should know that once you have earned a bad reputation, it’s very hard to shake.
Money talks. If the sox have the best offer he’ll take it.
FPG: There is no proof of a bad reputation with players. Journalists are not players. You would need quotes from a lot of players to show any kind of reputation.
When FPG is adamant about something he’s usually wrong. Remember, for months he said Red Sox “publicly stated” that they “werent going to spend any money until the top prospects were established in the majors”. While everyone, who could understand basic finances and how they we clearing their books for a big splash, knew this was false.
Im not promising anything, but this is a good sign for the Red Sox and Soto.
Fletch – Why so angry? It’s the holiday season, a time for all to unite and give thanks for this wonderful thing called life!
Bloom has no control over that, he works for the Cards now.
I’m not obsessed with Soto like some Sox fans, I’d rather spread the money on pitching.
Agreed. They all just want to get paid. I think the Sox are just trying to drive up the price for other teams. I prefer no Soto and focusing resources on pitching.
Salvi – I feel like I’m telling a kid there is no Santa Claus but there is no big deal coming and if there is …. I guarantee they botch it. Like paying Devers for 10 years when he has about 5 good years left and paying him star money when he can’t field. Or on a smaller scale …. like paying Giolito $40Million for two years and he misses the first one. I could go on and on but I won’t. it’s a simple message, love the faith but it’s very misplaced. Believe in the youngsters and their improvement and you won’t be disappointed. Believe in an acquisition of an all-star quality player and you will be disappointed. JD Martinez was the last all-star acquired in 2018. I can’t stop emphasizing you are watching the same events year after year and expecting a different outcome. Yep, the definition of insanity!!! Sorry.
Fletch – Nah, you’ve got a well known reputation for being an angry miserable person, combined with your ignorance as demonstrated in your last sentence.
The ST situation you described never happened. I did write years ago about the controversy generated when the Red Sox sent zero regulars to a ST road game which wasn’t a split squad, because the greedy arrogant Sox management doesn’t give a damn about Sox fans who can’t travel to Ft Myers, so is your memory that crappy or are you stating lies in bad faith?
You can’t tell much of anything, which combined with the holiday season is why I’m not gonna respond to your “moron” comment.
FPG: you state lies in bad faith all the time so you shouldn’t be throwing stones at that glass house.
Just as I thought, Seamaholic has nothing to support what he blurted out. Exactly like others that I have thankfully muted long ago, if you’re gonna call out somebody for being wrong then back it up. Quite a simple concept for an adult with at least half a brain.
And this from Buster Olney yesterday: “One market factor that shifts cyclically is how some teams become a preferred destination for players, while other teams lose ground in the perception game. Boston is aggressive with dollars now, but the Red Sox will have to pay extra to overcome a negative player perception that really started growing when the team wouldn’t pay Mookie Betts.”
THERE IT IS FOLKS, almost word for word what I wrote earlier.
MORAL OF THE STORY: Don’t think people will quickly ignore your actions of the past. The reason the Red Sox haven’t over the past 6 years signed anyone for more than $40M except Story and Yoshida (both major overpays) is not just because of cheapness, it’s also because the Red Sox have been arrogant a-holes during that time and therefore players stay away from them.
Much like people I have muted here, if you create a bad reputation by behaving like a jerk you will pay for it.
They’ve had a bad reputation ever since they traded David Price.
Saga
I feel like Im talking to my senile grandfather.
Red Sox are changing direction this year after waiting for their to be an abundance of talent in the minors. They have a Top 5 farm system after being ranked dead last at the end of 2019. You still think the Red Sox were under the cap in 2019, (as you’ve stated before) so your memory isnt the best.
To put it as simply as I can, this is the exact strategy that several people have talked about including myself. The Red Sox had to tear it down in order to build a championship team again. But your mind is locked like fudge, not understanding that. It cant comprehend all the facets of a baseball team needed to compete in a modern baseball world.
FPG: Fletch described what you do perfectly. Also you lie constantly which is your earned reputation. When called out on said lies you deflect, deny, or disappear. if you want people to take you seriously stop being a hypocrite. The only people you’ve muted are the people who pointed this out because you’re too childish to argue in good faith..
Fever Pitch Guy: Seamaholic cannot prove something does not exist. You need to prove a bad reputation exists and you haven’t. Buster Olney is not a player. Quotes from many players are needed.
Sag – They will surely sign some ranked free agent or two because they are $70M under the first threshold, but it’s pathetic how some fans are convinced Soto is signing with the Red Sox. Sure it could happen if John Henry decides to outbid everyone else, which he may do after seeing how far revenue has dropped the past few years.
But to be convinced Soto is coming to Boston? My God people are so gullible! A nobody kid waits until Thanksgiving Day for maximum attention, claims Soto has agreed to a 12-year deal with the Sox, then claims Soto still has the deal but with no details released, doesn’t provide any source or evidence, has never broken a baseball story before, and the ignorant fans eat it up like it’s fact.
It reminds me of that clown last year that insisted Ohtani was a Blue Jay. All they do is take educated guesses (everyone knows Red Sox are one of the Top 4 pursuers of Soto) and hope they eventually end up being right. If they are wrong? They don’t care, they’ve got nothing to lose so to them it’s worth the risk.
This country needs to bring back accountability, thankfully MLBTR didn’t even mention the clown this time and Passan put him in his place.
Salvi – You live in a fantasy world dude. Let’s correct the errors you made in facts:
1 – The strategy you speak of has not happened so it’s like a metric, it’s a pure fabrication.
2 – The Red Sox don’t have an abundance of talent in the minors. They have a marketed abundance of potential which is not the same thing until all of them prove themselves. The only ones that have proved themselves are from Dombrowski who has been gone nearly 5 years ago. So when did this strategy come to pass? Over 5 years ago before they fired their best GM ever or more recently when Bloom TORE DOWN a championship team because the owners hired him to be the fall guy for their racist move to ship the two best black players out of town?
3 – Tearing down a championship so you can build it again? That’s insane. People who think in those terms need to wear jackets where the arms attach in the back!!! That’s not a strategy that’s brain damage.
4 – You and the people who have talked about this strategy can’t be baseball fans. There has to be a better understanding of the game by baseball fans. People don’t strategize this way if they are sane.
5 – My mind is locked like fudge? This is precisely what I am talking about. Fudge being locked is not a thing. It’s your imagination Willy Wonka!! The great part about your perspective is that it’s so naive it’s comical. If you think Red Sox are spending big this year, please make sure to apologize to me for calling me names for not believing your fantasy. 5 years of the same BS and you keep believing the stories. Read the definition of insanity because it fits your beliefs.
I do hope for your well being that it comes true. I hate to see a youngster’s delusions harm their future.
Fever Pitch Guy – I don’t believe they will sign an all-star this off season. I don’t see an incentive to do it. We still don’t know what happened for sure when Dombrowski got fired but the Eckersley/Price incident seems to have triggered it much like Archduke Ferdinand of Austria’s murder led to the beginning of WWI. Without the Eckersley/Price incident the owners don’t publicly criticize Price which means Mookie doesn’t meet with the owners about their racism which stops them from discarding the repugnant Betts which stops them from firing Dombrowski for wanting to sign Mookie to the $9M a year salary increase which was to last 12 years. A lot of dominoes fell as a result of the Eckersley/Price incident.
Today, it’s over 5 years later and the franchise has not recovered from the events of the summer of 2019. No all-star since JD Martinez yet 20 or more associated with moves not made by Boston. Will 2025 be the year? I don’t see why it would be considering the profits are still high even with some attendance set=backs. The racism topic is now off the table, the cheating incident that the owners knew about thanks to Cora going behind Dombrowski’s back and meeting directly with the owners is in the past and they came out smelling like a rose even though they were dirty. Things are profitable, they dodged a couple of big black eyes in the racism and cheating and they are coasting along nicely as the owners of a storied franchise that has completed it’s winning in the 21st century. I see no motivation for spending big money. They will let Breslow spend $20M or less on players he requests but nothing more and nothing long-term whether the player is elite or not. The record will stay around .500 and internal growth will be the only way to producing all-star talent on the roster and there is no guarantee that they will keep it.
As a Sox fan, I hate to admit that he’s right.
This reputation actually goes all the way back to the way they treated Jon Lester.
I don’t know it will hold back a player that prefers not to play in New York, but Soto appears to like the city. I find it more likely he lands in New York, potentially even leaving a few dollars on the table.
Sag – I know you have a unique definition of all-star, so before I can comment what is your personal definition?
I’ve listed a few all-stars the Sox signed since 2022, but you’ve said they don’t count. Lol
Fen – The biggest hindrance to the Sox signing top talent is lack of trust … management and ownership has done so many sleazy things and lied or deceived so often, they have earned their horrific reputation.
Maybe Devers can change Soto’s view, thank God we have Devers.
Fever Pitch Guy = Bloom signed Kenley who did make the all-star game post playing with the Dodgers. He, however, is only an impact player as a closer if the team’s pitching is good enough to impact the final standings. Did a sub .500 team need to prioritize a closer? Nope. But technically he is an all-star so if you want to count him that’s fine but he did next to nothing because he wasn’t in a position to convert a 78 win team to a championship team. He also cost under $20 Million per year so it was a short=contract at low cost. But technically he counts so I exaggerated by pointing out the last all-star as JD Martinez who was a top 3 player on a world championship team.
Justin Turner made two all-star teams in his 16 year career so again, technically he has been an all=star but he was 38 when they contracted him. If you think he’s an impact player, especially after giving up the younger and better JD Martinez it’s not really a win for Boston on that deal but again technically you could call him an all-star but if I told you we really needed an all-star, Turner would not come to mind in my book. Maybe 10 years ago but not in 2023 at age 38.
If you want to point out technicalities please check my spelling too. The point was we have not picked up an impact player since 2018. Our only spending over $20Million for this team that makes $300 Million annually has been the bad contract with Devers and the bad contract with Story.
But hey, you got me on a technically. My point was not to be within the letter of the law of the words used but rather to be within the spirit of the comment relating to NO IMPACT players of significance. To this day, I believe the money spent on Kenley and Martin was as big a waste as the Kluber and Perez money. The results were not impacted significantly and the team remains a failure throughout those purchases.
If someone says all-star to you, do you immediately think to go to Baseball Reference to see if he ever made an all-star team in his entire career or do you think about top players who are annual threats to be on the all-star team?
So for me Soto is an all-star and Turner is not, especially at the age he was acquired. I think that’s more of a common sense approach rather than a rigid technical qualification.
Fever Pitch Guy – Seriously? Thank God we have Devers?
We could have Mookie, Bogey, JD, Eovaldi, Sale to name a few but instead we have the guy who can’t field and costs over $30Million a year for a decade.
Devers has never done a thing for others in the organization so why would he do anything for Soto unless it helps himself? No I think Soto won’t want any part of being a team mate of Devers just like most MLB players. Anyone costing their team so many games a year for 8 years is not looked at as a great team mate. SELFISH is the only word to use when it comes to Devers.
I rue the day we got Devers as well as Cora. Two thorns that have been in the side of the Boston organization since 2017 and 2018. The proper description for them are barriers to success. Nothing to be thankful for.
Sag- Soto and Devers are about the same age, grew up together in the Dominican, and Devers is the only player guaranteed to be with the Red Sox for at least 9 more seasons. He’s also the only great hitter on the team in terms of track record.
Soto has talked to Devers recently multiple times for over an hour each. Who else would he talk to on the current team? Nobody. Everyone else is inexperienced and not Dominican.
If you want Soto and he signs with the Sox, you’ll owe Devers a big one. Lol!
Sag – I have said many times being named an All-Star is often meaningless.
What you mean to say is a currently elite position player. With that I agree, JD was the last. I’m very glad you got off the Story bandwagon as he is NOT a great hitter.
Fever: What does GFIN mean?
Blue – Go For It Now
Fletch – I don’t think he’s that type of guy.
I know you’ve never been passed out at a party, because you’ve never been invited to one … right? ;o)
Fletch – 1 room bench? You hitting the eggnog? LOL!
Fletch – You just proved yet again your ignorance and inability for critical thinking.
So because I choose to work out at home instead of a gym and haven’t heard that term from another Stifler like you, it leads you to assume I’m not muscular and am overweight? Brilliant deduction Einstein. Yeah you got me good, how will I ever live with the shame.
Why you would even bring up such a bizarre and offtopic question on a baseball website speaks volumes about how your brain functions.
the fact you’re willing to engage him on the topic and then say that “work out at home” like anyone would actual believe that says a lot about you too.
He’s a Met so none of it will matter.. all Boras is doing is extracting every penny he. An from them. He’s going to be a Met
That’s trash and inaccurate lol. Those players age and cost didn’t make sense for the rebuild in age or dollars when the rebuild would finish system wide or the decade to come which is why they were all let go. But we’re ready to continue to dominate the next decade again like the last 2
Baseball – You’d be better served if you know what you’re talking about before saying something. Lol
Many, many players over the past 5+ years were offered contracts by the Sox but the offers were rejected either because it wasn’t enough money or they didn’t want to play for the Sox, or both.
Some guru. Lol
Going to NY. Bank on it. Yanks or Mets.
Hope it’s the yanks. They have a budget, even if they say they don’t, and this will eat into it. They like bright and shiny and slack elsewhere.
So. No news.
But we clicked
They gotta write about something.
The site has rumors in the name. So…..
Let’s hope he goes to the Dodgers. We need an All-Star team playing 162 games and win them all.
I hope it happens just to watch people’s heads explode.
Vegas – I hope it happens so that Soto becomes the first player in sports history to cost a team more than $100M in one season.
VM, you are faaaar from alone on this take.
-Lifelong Phillies’ fan
That would be cool. $500 beers, $1000 for parking, ever Dodger fan saying “we” in front of every sentence. It will be sublime for baseball
I tried buying tickets for Dodgers vs Yankees for May 2025 series and crappy seats on top deck started at $900+ face value. This is simply not sustainable and im willing to bet mlbpa union will be busted up and strike missing a full season or longer to make it happen. The time has come that they must install a hard cap and floor in addition to taxing deferred money to stop this loophole in addition to draft for Japenese players so they cannot choose their destination
Check out the prices for when the Dodgers play North Dakota State. Much better.
You’re describing the secondary market. The Dodgers didn’t set those $900 prices. The market did. The price was $900 not because the Dodgers have a high payroll, but because the demand was there.
This is not face value, it’s market value. Market value is not affected in any way, shape or form by anything but what buyers are willing to pay. As the saying goes, every problem has a solution that is obvious, simple, and wrong.
I doubt it is the market setting the price, but sellers fishing for someone willing to pay that price. Besides, the tickets are very tasty for the sellers as I see them eating their tickets and not getting their prices.
Tony – Single game tickets aren’t even on sale yet for Dodger Stadium.
I’ve sold lots of tickets on StubHub and Seat Geek. It’s a reverse auction. Sellers can ask anything they wish, but that doesn’t mean anyone is going to pay it. Lots of times I’ve seen tickets in my section listed for $100 a week ahead of the game only to see the prices fall to a third that much in the day or two before the game. For the most part it’s a buyer’s market.
Yanks – Exactly! Fishing is very common, especially this time of year. Anyone looking to buy tickets on the secondary now, before they even go on sale by the team, is viewed as easy prey.
A lot of people will jump in and buy hot tickets like Yankees vs Dodgers as soon as they become available and triple their money on the secondary market. They would buy 3 tickets from the team, sell two on the secondary market, make money and have a ticket still.
Vegas – Is the price stamped on the ticket set by the market or is it set by the organization selling it? I get that the market dictates prices for tickets resold, but I’m pretty sure the price on the ticket originally is set by the Dodgers.
Your point is valid if the $900 is not the standard price for the ticket from the Dodgers.
Soto knows. But he ain’t tellin
Idk. Lots to consider when Mets are clear favorites. He might end up in Boston for less money
There is no scenario where Soto takes *less* money to play in *Boston* on a team that is middling at best.
So the Dodgers won’t be in the bidding war. Yankees versus Mets. I’d say Mets, hope it’s the nationals
Mets, then Phillies, and I’m a Yankees fan. Red Sox aren’t really serious, although he’d be spectacular there. LA just spent a ton. Some teams will just try to drive the price up.
I’m sure you have all the inside scoop.
Nope, nothing more than an opinion. Not claiming anything beyond that.
Oh the Red Sox are VERY serious. They are $70m under the tax threshold. It would be very easy for them to match the Mets or Yankees.
Agree that Red Sox could. But I think they’d deploy their money elsewhere. Just a guess.
Mike – Agreed!
And what some people fail to realize, the Sox added around $14M to this year’s CBT payroll by extended Rafaela and Bello, neither of whom had earned it.
I’m fairly certain they will have at least a couple more extensions given out over the next 4 months or so. Houck & Duran/Abreu (if not traded) are prime candidates, maybe even Casas and Anthony.
Semaholic, I’m still going to bet on the guy with the most money. I’ll say Mets.
Phillies haven’t even talked to Soto.
I know, I still think they will be in.
They weren’t talking to Cliff Lee either until….
philliesnation.com/2024/11/philadelphia-phillies-j…
I have Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, in that order.
It will be the Mets because Boras/Soto made everybody come to them in LA to make their presentation, but Soto/Boras went to Steve Cohen’s luxury compound to hear his proposal.
Ignorant: I wouldn’t read much into that.
Yeah it was kinda silly.
Clip – I wouldn’t rule out the Jays. The city is great, the exchange rate is phenomenal. the stadium fills up when they are winning, and playing with Vladdy is a huge draw for Soto.
I don’t see Soto picking the Jays unless Vlad gets his contract extended. Not to say the both of those can’t happen, maybe they would both get announced at the same time but I’m not sure Atkins can pull that off. Let’s just say I would be surprised at such a coordinated two-fer.
Excellent points. I’ll start tracking the private planes and report back
Bucs – Some guy in his 20s tried to extort money from Elon by tracking his plane. Not sure if he was successful?
Come on Clip! The Mets are being used to get the Yankees to their highest number. The Yankees are the most storied franchise in the history of professional sports, and the Mets are an expansion team that wears the same uniform as the Boise State Broncos. Hal will get his guy. Mets fans want this to be about money, but this will be about preferred destination. The money will be equal or near equal for all the teams in the bidding. Mets fans have a fantasy that the Yankees will be outbid, like they are the Brewers or something. He might not choose the Yankees, but it won’t be a money issue. If money is not the issue, then he picks the Yankees.
I agree, Lark, but I’m hesitant when it comes to Hal spending that much. Honestly though, it wouldn’t be surprising to me if he went to the Yankees.
If it’s not all about the money, then it’s Yankees or Red Sox. And Red Sox can make a compelling case with the Dominican connection. I don’t see the allure to the Mets or anything that pulls his heart in that direction unless it’s pure mercenary greed and wanting to be the face of the franchise (shared with Lindor, I suppose.)
I get it, but this is Juan freaking Soto. I think Hal gets it too. This isn’t just some FA.
I hope you’re right man. The Judge sign g makes me think he does as well, but I think Cohen does as well. I think we will know soon enough. My head says Mets, my heart says Yankees.
Clip – I think it all comes down to whether or not you believe Cohen’s statement that he’s willing to pay $50M more than any other team’s highest bid. What player would turn down $50M for any reason? Even if they wanted to, they’d have to deal with tremendous criticism from their agent and the union. Soto’s next contract will impact all future big name contracts.
lark – There’s been a “generational star” hitting free agency just about every year.
This reminds me of McGwire’s 70th homerun ball selling for $3M because it was a “once in a lifetime thing” …. and then just 3 years later Bonds hit 73.
Soto is the latest shiny new toy, nothing more.
1 year/25 million prove it deal and then we will talk about 500 plus million.
And what is he proving exactly?
1yr/$25M price it? Psh.
Clearly this is a situation where he should really take the safe money, the insurance of extra years because he’s on the older side and his numbers are actually pretty meh at best.
4 years/$10M guaranteed with $2.5M a year in incentives and opt outs with a club option to trigger another 4 years/$30M guaranteed if he somehow manages to actually stay healthy for once.
And honestly if he somehow manages to stay relatively healthy and productive and isn’t forced to retire early or be released by like year two, that’d be a baseball miracle.
/s
I am genuinely confused…the article says that the Red Sox left handed hitters historically have taken advantage of the Green Monster. The Monster is in left field…wouldn’t that give the advantage to righties?
No actually. The monster has always been a huge target for oppo fly balls from lefties. The original Yaz made a HoF career out of that. So did Ortiz.
Awesome info, I was not aware. Thanks for the response!
Ortiz hit less than 10% of his HR’s to left field
Great point, and it’s not like he also finished, say, 10th all time with over 630 doubles or anything like that.
It isnt so much the Homer’s, it is the free doubles.
seamaholic: The original Yaz? There’s only been one. Mike doesn’t count.
That’s like calling Pete Rose the original Charlie Hustle. Pete Jr doesn’t count.
Lefties who can go oppo tend to feast on the monster
Thanks for the info, much appreciated!
It’s not called wall ball for nothing. Fenway is where doubles are made off the Green Monster, triples are made in the triangle and homers are made inside the Pesky Pole. Lots of batting champions and many are left handed batters. Runnells, YAZ, Boggs, Mueller, et al.
Ted Williams
Bob Nutting, I have the craziest idea…
Mets
So 2 years ago we go Arson Judge, last year the infamous flight to Toronto. So my prediction this year it’ll be Juan Soso is signing with (insert whatever team he’s not signing with here).
The Reds!
‘stalking horse’ — interesting. Middleton dropping some knowledge.
In politics:
A stalking horse candidate is a sham candidate who runs against a leader to test the strength of the opposition. The stalking horse then withdraws in favor of a stronger challenger. (aka Biden)
In bankruptcy:
A stalking horse bidder is an interested buyer of a bankrupt company who is chosen by the company to set the initial bid in a court-supervised auction. The stalking horse bidder protects the debtor from receiving unreasonably low bids for its assets.
Hopefully either the Yankees resign him or he goes to the Blue Jays, as a Mets fan we can get the other top free agents (Santander, Adames, Buehler, Sasski and Walker) let’s get them all Mets we can get all 5 for between $100-$125 mil, than we can trade Baty, Mauricio, Tidwell and another prospect to CWS for Crochet and have a rotation of Buehler, Crochet, Sasaki, Senga and Peterson. Trade McNeil and Marte for relievers
I like this kind of ambition.
I like his sense of humor. The idea that McNeil and Marte will return anything IS amusing.
“ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported several weeks back that while the Dodgers will be in the mix they’re not expected to chase Snell at all costs. ”
– Insert Soto for Snell there I assume?
You are correct, he was referring to LAD not pursuing Soto.
si.com/mlb/dodgers/news/dodgers-fans-won-t-love-th…
Soto needs to pick a team that can stay in the playoff race until they face the Dodgers. That’s not the Mets and that’s not the Yankees. His best shot of winning a ring is either the Dodgers or Phillies. The problem with the Phillies is they have Schwarber so Soto will have to play outfield which is not one of his strengths.
So we shall see. Is it only about the money or is it about finding the team that is most likely to compete with the Dodgers who are now the modern day Yankees. Baseball has gone back in time with the recent actions by LAD. The Yankees won 21 of 42 rings through 1962 by completely outspending all the teams. It’s the Dodgers turn now.
Will the Dodgers be like the pre-1962 Yankees and dominate the game for decades or the post 1962 Yankees who shot themselves in the foot every time they went for a big name but not a big talent. Time will tell.
I’m curious to see how over the top the Dodger spending is going to be. Will Soto go to LA too? That would be insane but we thought spending a billion on a player was insane before last year!!
NL teams are out on Soto, the Dodgers are the only NL option if he wants a sure thing! I think the Phillies and Braves missed their window. Wait until the sign Adames and Teoscar!
Sagacity: The Mets did stay in until they faced the Dodgers, and they wiped out the Phillies along the way.
What were you watching?
Blue Baron – hahahaha Seriously? You see the Mets as a better team than the Phillies? They may be a wealthier team but they certainly don’t have the same talent level as the Phillies. You need a quick reminder of their recent performances since COVID.
Look up who has played better since COVID in 2020?
2024 – Phillies 95 wins – Mets 89 wins
2023 – Phillies 90 wins – Mets 75 wins
2022 – Phillies 87 wins = Mets 101 wins
2021 – Phillies 82 wins – Mets 77 wins
NO POST SEASON for either team in 2021
Post season expanded in 2022 so both team make it
2022 – Mets won 101 games eliminated by SD 2-1
2022 – Phillies won 87 games eliminated by HOU in World Series 4-2
Phillies beat STL 2-0, beat ATL 3-1, SD 4-1
OVERALL – 11-6 in post season
Mets were 1-2
2023 – Phillies won 90 games eliminated by ARI in NL Championship
Phillies beat Miami 2-0, ATL 3-1 and lost 3-4 vs ARI
OVERALL – 8-5 in post season
Mets were didn’t make the playoffs
2024 = Phillies won 95 games eliminated by NYM in Division Series
Phillies were 1-3 in Playoffs
2024 – Mets won 89 games eliminated by LAD in NL Championship
Mets beat PHI 3-1`, lost to LAD 2-4
OVERALL – 5-5 in the playoffs
There are the facts.
Phillies 354 wins since COVID
Mets 342 wins since COVID
Phillies 20-14 in Post Season since 2022
Mets 6-7 in the Post Season since 2022
I know what I’m watching …… A MUCH BETTER PHI TEAM
What are you watching? The numbers suggests you forgot to tune in to anything but the one good series the Mets have had in the two seasons they recently made the play-offs and you forgot to watch the Phillies the three times they competed, two of which where they advanced to the WS and NL finals.
Tell you story walking dude!!!! hahahaha
Sagacity: Settle down, Beavis.
All I’m saying is the Mets were better this year when it counted.
Blue Baron – Hey, without the “what are you watching?’ I don’t react as strongly. The Mets just beat the Phillies they didn’t wipe them out. I simply figured you must be a Mets fan with the exaggerated take on what happened. Like I said, could have left it alone without the “what are you watching?’
The “Beavis” comment in your last response confirms you are simply a jackass NY fan. Enough said, you are not worth my time loser.
Sagacity: Mets won. Phillies lost. Too bad.
But you have a big vocabulary for someone from Philly or Jersey or wherever it is you’re from.
The Mets had the best record in baseball from June 1st. The Phillies have been better, but what’s past is past…. the Mets have a better farm system and have a massive financial advantage to go along with a shrewd young GM.
The notion that they are not going to be a destination for players looking to win is laughable..
Blue Baron – I welcome compliments and non-abusive comments. You went with an edgy comment this time. It’s less offensive.
I’m a fantasy player so neither the Mets nor Phillies are my team, I support select players from both. That’s why my original comment wasn’t a home town bias because I had no dog in the fight between the Mets and Phillies. I just document facts so the readers get the full picture.
I’ve been a huge fan of Lindor since I had him in my minors a decade ago for my keeper fantasy league team. I drafted Harper and have been a fan of his since I read Boras was interested in some kid in his junior year of high school who was going for his GED mid year so he could play for a JUCO team in the spring semester and then enter the draft..
I just enjoy watching good baseball with teams that have excellent players and that can be said about both the Mets and Phillies.
theruns – Spoken like a true fan. So just to set the record straight.
1 – What the Mets did in 2024 has no impact on 2025 because as you can see from the information I provided, they are very inconsistent year to year.
2 – The financial advantage is true but that almost never translates into winning rings, it simply helps you get to the playoffs, especially now with the bigger playoff format.
3 – The age of your GM is meaningless in the overall picture but if he truly is shrewd I would have thought the Mets would have a ring by now. The Phillies HOF GM has rings. Advantage Philly in that match-up.
4 – The Farm System is highly over-rated since the basis of the ratings is political not skills. That’s how guys marketed/promoted by the front office in Boston got Swihart rated higher than Mookie when Mookie was in the farm system. That’s how the Red Sox trade for a guy like Jeter Downs as the 44 prospect in baseball and they DFA him two years later because his ranking wasn’t based on his skills.
5 – One more comment about the Farm System. They don’t play and win critical games in the current season so I can’t picture a scenario where a player says “Boy their farm system is so great, I want to play there!!” After all, those great farm players might take his job!!
Sagacity: None of the facts cited about the Mets or the Phillies have any bearing on 2025.
And I’ve been playing fantasy and Rotisserie games long enough to have had Dave Parker, Dusty Baker, Fernando Valenzuela, Dwight Gooden, Gary Carter, Andy van Slyke, and Keith Hernandez on my teams.
Blue Baron – We should chat about fantasy some time. My keeper league started in 1984 when Sutcliffe went to the Cubs and dominated. Our rules include minor leaguers so I’ve had guys like Chipper Jones, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens in my minors back at a time when Baseball Digest was the gold standard and fledgling writers like Bill James were just becoming popular.
And I published a fantasy newsletter and was a charter member of Baseball Weekly’s LABR and Ron Shandler’s Tout Wars leagues.
Unfortunately, I made the mistake of not moving it to the Internet.
The Mets and Yankees both just stayed in the race in 2024 until they faced the Dodgers. If Cohen spends to bring in other high-end talent too, Mets are a definite factor.
@Ma4170 The Mets are very far away from .500, let alone the postseason. Will Cohen go for another $350 million payroll? That’s what it’s going to take. The Mets are already at $176m for LT purposes and have the equivalent of all of one starting pitcher, one starting OFer, and… what… three bullpen arms? They also need a 1B or 3Bman, and that’s if they’re living with McNeil at 2B.
Stearns is going to have to be lucky again, and very very good to make the postseason this year.
@Jack
How are the Mets “very far away from .500 when they just were in the playoffs 2 months ago?? Most would say they underperformed for most of the year.
No one would say they underperformed most of the year, surely. They were a very old team seeing an overall improvement in performance from their old players vs 2023 and vs projections.
Their SECOND best player by bWAR was a 34 yo MI who didn’t even get called to the majors in 2023. Their third best player was a young guy who was already on his last shot at the majors with the Mets.
The main point now is that the Mets are still a very old team whose old players are likely to decline, and they lost their three starters with more than 121 IP to free agency.
Add up what you expect from the players currently on the roster and are they anywhere near 81 wins? There’s no math that gets them anywhere near .500. They have a very long way to go. On the plus side they seem likely to again blow past the LT threshold. If Cohen wants to run another $350m payroll with another $100m in penalties then, sure, they can contend. As the roster exists now, though, they probably barely project to 70 wins. Lindor, Vientos, Nimmo… Peterson will probably be good for his usual 100 innings, Senga… who knows, really, project him for 110 IP. Then there’s… er… odds and ends like McNeil, Siri, Alvarez, Diaz… you can’t currently get them to 75 wins.
@Ma4170
What do you mean by “just stayed in the race”?
Sagacity had said Soto needs to pick a team that can “stay in the playoff race”… and i was saying obviously the Mets just did that this past playoff run
Ma4170 – You are right. In 2024 they did. Then look at how consistently they do that. I posted recent years so you understand why I’m not sold on them repeating 2024 in 2025 because they haven’t maintained success in back to back years. Their performance goes up and down.
I don’t dislike the Mets, I simply think money would be the only way the Mets get Soto. If the money is close, I don’t think the Mets get him. If he cares about winning, he’ll want a more consistent team. Phillies have 3 straight years of improving during the regular season but their roster is made for the full season not the playoffs. The Mets seem to lack consistency. Maybe that will change going forward but he’s got to judge based on what’s happened recently.
One good series against Philly is the ONLY argument if the money is close. If the Mets severely over pay the competition, I think he’ll go there. As you and others have pointed out, the pockets are deeper for the Mets.
Sagacity, I hate to bust your bubble but, before 1975 a clause in a players contract’s essentially tied a player to their team indefinitely preventing them from freely negotiating with other teams! It was called the reserve clause. So, stop with the BS about the Yankees or any other team spending money on players until after 1975!
sullylv – I’m going to cut you some slack despite your attitude.
The amount of money spent by the Yankees from the time they added BABE RUTH to their roster was millions of dollars greater than any other team and often more than over half the other teams. That’s why they had the best players from 1920 until 1962 and won 50% of the World Championships and participated in World Series so many times..
The RESERVE CLAUS had nothing to do with what I was talking about.
Let me quote you something from the Baseball Almanac. Remember, prior to 1965 there was no Rule 4 Draft (the annual amateur draft held mid summer). So from 1920 to 1965 how were players acquired. Here is the Baseball Almanac’s answer.
“Prior to the implementation of the First-Year Player Draft, amateurs were free to sign with any Major League team that offered them a contract. As a result, wealthier teams such as the New York Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals were able to stockpile young talent, while poorer clubs were left to sign less desirable prospects.”
Money mattered as explained. I didn’t make anything up. These are facts. Once the rule 4 draft began in 1965, there was a 10 year period when AMERICAN BORN players were conscripted to the team that drafted them as you say. Curt Flood changed all that and free agency was born in 1975 allowing players to once again go to the highest bidder.
So, there is no BS in my comments, just facts. Baseball fans should be thankful that the Yankees after 1962 were so incredibly inept at signing quality players that their dynasty ended.
Today the Dodgers are basically replacing the Yankees as the number 1 team at buying players. The Dodgers have a pretty inept track record at picking the best players but rather the most expensive players but dropping a billion on Shohei might be the straw that breaks the camels back and the game will revert back to results like we saw the 42 years the Yankees owned a dynasty.
pre-62 yankees went straight to the world series if they won the american league, not saying the dodgers can’t build a dynasty but the playoff format makes it much harder to win multiple titles
@saga
Why would you overlook the Yanks as a team that could make it to the WS? They just did so, and if it weren’t for some self-inflicted bloopers, would’ve extended the series longer? The Yankees aren’t as risk adverse to spending money and they’ve made use of their farm very well bus graduating guys like Judge, Torres, Wells, Volpre, Cortes, Dominguez, Gil and Schmidt or via trades for Soto, Jazz, etc.
Knicks – The Yankees last won in 2009. They’ve made a ton of bad choices on contracts like Stanton and many pitchers. Cashman has kept his job far too long considering the results he’s financed.
The Yankees like a couple of other teams have plenty of money to compete with LAD but their choices have been so historically bad without change at the top they will continue to lack what it takes to win everything but they will make the playoffs. They are identical to what the Dodgers have been until recently. The Dodgers upped their game with Ohtani and just added Snell when other teams don’t have millions of dollars of deferred money. It’s like the government bankrupting the future generations by over spending. The Dodger will at some point have to pay the piper but for now, they just keep coming up with ways to create money to spend on players.
FYI… Judge is a great home grown player. I think if you check with the Cubs, they had Torres first. There are not many studs that are home grown in NY. Historically you buy them like Cole and Soto. You pay a lot of money to guys like Rizzo, Stanton and LeMahieu and they perform well for small segments and then they become albatrosses to your payroll. But you are right, the Yankees still don’t have a conscience when it comes to spending. They just stink at picking the right guy. Cole was a great move, Soto was a great move but they desperately need to re-sign him if they want to stay competitive. Remember the pre-Soto team, it was mediocre. The crappy Red Sox played almost even with them.
If the Yanks were to get Soto back it would be huge but remember the discussion here. Where should Soto go to be competitive? The Yankees without Soto aren’t close to the Phillies, Dodgers or Astros.
Baltimore hit a bump this past year but without Soto they provide more talent for Soto to join than the Yankees.
Even though Soto has some blemishes in his overall game, he’s elite and there are only about 30 elite players in the game and there are 30 teams in the game so for NY to have Judge and Soto it puts them in the top 5 teams carrying elite players. Without him, they fall to the middle of the pack. The Red Sox had Mookie and Bloom gave him to his mentor in LA. Devers isn’t elite, he’s an excellent hitter but not at Soto’s level. Boston lost their elite player. They had other that were excellent like JD Martinez, Bogaerts and others but Mookie was the elite player like Papi before him.
Judge is elite. Harper is elite. Acuna is elite. Mookie, Freeman, and Ohtani are elite. The balance of power is now tilted to LA and Cashman has to start doing his job and acquiring elite players and it needs to start with recovering Soto. Then NY is in a position to compete for the next elite player made available and the Yankees have a shot to return to the World Series based on talent.
Hope he signs w/ the Sox so the Phillies can get Yoshida
interesting take lol
I like everything about this take. Clearing Masa off the roster opens up so many options.
The only problem is that he’s got an expensive contract with mediocre performance. Do the phillies even want him?
I imagine Sox would have to pay some of it down to get anything decent in return. Frankly, the roster spot and a reduction in payroll is reward enough. It’s the old “trade him for a bag of balls” deal.
With regard to the red sox the impact Soto could have on thier lineup reminds of the Manny Ramirez signing.
Great comp! And I don’t want to hear any talk about defense. Nobody was bothered with Manny being Manny cutting off throws from Damon because the dude raked!!!
As teams make their pitch to Soto, I’m sure they’ve all offered up their plans on how they’ll improve during this off season. I wonder how that conversation goes…
Say Boston… “Juan, we plan on signing one or two of the top pitchers to improve our team. We’ll be well suited to compete for years to come.”
Soto…”Show me the receipts and we’ll talk.”
Does a Fried/Burnes deal have to preceed a Soto signing?
If Papi and Pedro are working at the behest of the BoSox then they should not be allowed to commentate on nationally televised games or events.
Rays.
The Yankees just raked in an estimated 70 mil in playoff gate receipts and that doesn’t include concessions, parking, etc.
If you want to get Hal’s attention, it’s through a friendly bar graph to share with investors and Soto brought in revenue this club hasn’t seen in over a decade.
I think Hal’s magic number is higher than most believe, so Cohen may have to enter silly territory to truly separate the Mets from the pack. Maybe I’m a biased Yankee observer, but I see this as a 50% NYY, 42% NYM, 8 % Others race.
It would be a big black eye if the Yankees get outbid here. They might not be a playoff team without Soto.
If they don’t match or beat any offer he gets they instantly lose the offseason.
No it wouldn’t. If Soto doesn’t come back, the Yankees will fill out their roster with some of the other available free agents.
Yanks will be a playoff team next year with or without Soto.
I wouldn’t ever make a declaration that the Yanks WILL do anything when everyone knows that Judge is likely to be on the IL for some portion of the season. The only questions is how long
not so sure about that. the yankees were a .500 team for months even with judge and soto going crazy and the non-soto free agent class is weak. goldschmidt or walker (for example) wouldn’t come close to offsetting the loss of soto
Walker and Santander/Bregman would make the Yankees a better overall team than just Soto. Yanks could have two of those players for slightly more $ annually than it will take to sign Soto and they’d be just as strong offensively and better defensively
The Phillies will give you Walker and throw in the proverbial bag of balls for just a “Thanks”.
I was talking about Christian Walker, not Taijuan lol
Negative. Walker is reportly expected to command $17-20 million avv, Santander $20 and Bregman $25 avv so you easily get any 2 for LESS than what Soto will command. Don’t fool yourself as Mets going to drive his avv to the $50-60 million range that Hal should stop at $46 avv and pivot to other players quickly
Hal, I hope you offered no more than $40 million per for 10 years. Soto is not a better hitter or overall player than Judge, who also has 2 MVPs.
The market for Soto isn’t large, so there’s no need to feel like you have to escalate offers. If Cohen wants to be stupid, let him at it.
Yanks would be better served signing a few of the other free agents to fill the many holes they have.
Yeah but Soto hits when it matters in the postseason which is primarily what you pay a superstar like that for. If AAS is similar within a couple million I would definitely pick Soto over Judge.
Soto wasn’t that great in the playoffs. Yes, he hit the big HR against Cleveland, but he certainly didn’t dominate.
And I don’t want to hear about how much he walks, regular or postseason. For the money Soto reportedly wants, he should be hitting 50 HRs with 50 doubles plus 125+ RBI per year.
Soto – 43 GP, 160 AB, 31 Runs, 45 Hits, 11 HR, 30 RBI, 19 XBH, .281 AVG, .389 OBP, .927 OPS
Judge – 58 GP, 220 AB, 37 Runs, 45 Hits, 16 HR, 34 RBI, 22 XBH, .205 AVG, .318 OBP, .768 OPS
I’m just saying if they are similar in salary, why wouldn’t you go with more postseason success at a younger age?
Soto’s not a clutch hitter. He hits the way he usually does when he finds himself in a High :Leverage situation, and he’s at his best in Low Leverage situations. It’s just that he’s such a good hitter, that he hits well in the ‘clutch.’
@Jack
You know we don’t need to speculate right? With the bases empty his OPS is an amazing .945. With RISP his OPS jumps to 1.143. His walk/ko rate goes from about 1:1 to 2:1 (79 vs 80 to 30 vs 15). He has absolutely been a beast in clutch situations this year over the course of the full season.
Other than Soto, Judge was the only hitter with an above average OBP. After Judge I think the next highest OBP came from Torres who most seem to be in a rush to get rid of which I don’t understand completely.
Torres’ .330 OBP makes him look like a god among insects (save for Soto and Judge) on the ’24 Yankees.
A .330 OBP today is like a .370 ten years ago. His obp ranked him just about 50th overall. Among this years FA only Soto, Profar, Hernandez, Adames and Walker.
Torres is the worst defensive 2B in all of mlb that’s why plus his base running is horrendous along with mental lapses that occur often alongvwith along with terrible hitting 3/4 of the season
Las Vegas…
Mets are very committed beyond $$
I heard cohen is renaming shake shack to soto shack
And mets creating A new tm dance called the soto shuffle
The Royals better get that offer in soon
There seems to be some correlation between the best players and the few teams with by far the most money to spend year after year after year so I will predict the lands with one of those teams. Yawn.
I’m a skeptic of the “driving up the price” theory. No team wants to drive up the price of free agents, as this is their main cost of doing business. If the Dodgers are in the Soto bidding with no objective other than driving up his price to another team, then they are bound to pay more in signing other free agents. Since it’s self-defeating, I don’t see this as really happening except in the imaginations of sports writers and fans.
I think it’s agents putting out that narrative, not the teams themselves. I agree with you, the ones driving up the price are agents and that’s fair game, this is a capitalistic country.
Agreed, it’s in the interest of players and their agents to drive up contract values, not teams. Most of the rumors about team offers no doubt come from player’s agents.
Dodgers. They may have to put someone like Mookie Betts in AAA but he would be a good call up in case of injury.
Boston will get 2 of Eovaldi, crochet and Fried . And Probably Teoscar.
What’s the point of LAD trying to drive up Soto’s price? I don’t understand what benefit it would have for the Dodgers.
I have Soto signing with the Mets. If not the Mets, it’s the Yankees. In my mind, he’s not leaving New York.
i keep reading posts that teams should pass on soto and spread the money around but this is a weak free agent class. needing 3 players to equal the production of 1 has roster implications and multiple signings runs the risk that 1 of them will be a bust (bullpen-game conundrum)
If you truly believe one Juan Soto is better than 3 quality players combined, you are clueless about assembling a winning baseball team.
hypothetical example: signing bregman, walker and santander would allocate (conservative estimate) 65M/yr for players that are projected to combine for 9 fwar in 2025 with production trending downward every year as they are all on the wrong side of 30. soto was worth 8 fwar in 2024 and is nowhere near his decline years. he also has the health tool which makes him a safer bet than any pitcher out there. whether a team can afford the total value of soto’s contract is another matter. also, it’s possible to express a difference of opinion without including an insult
Don’t quote WAR to me. It’s a bs stat that can’t even be agreed upon by the creators of these metrics. There are numerous sites and they all have different equations for WAR.
Even taking your argument at face value, the 3 players you mentioned have a higher combined WAR. Is that not better than just Soto?
I’m going to use Bregman and Walker for this argument, because the Yanks wouldn’t sign all 3.
3rd base was a black hole for the Yanks in ’24. Bregman brings solid offense to the position and is also worlds ahead defensively than anybody they had there.
Walker is a better hitter and fielder than Rizzo at this point in time. Another position strengthened.
Signing Bregman would move Chisholm back to his natural position at 2nd, replacing Torres who was terrible defensively.
Just signing Bregman and Walker improves the entire team on both sides of the ball, even without Soto back in the fold.
Yes, Soto is an excellent offensive player, but the money he’s reportedly seeking doesn’t add up.
If they sign Soto for $45 – 46 million, they probably only sign Walker because they won’t be able to afford Bregman, too.
Ok, with Soto and Walker only, the offense is better, but with Bregman and Walker but no Soto, the team is better overall.
If they sign Soto, they’re going to have to go with LeMahieu or Cabrera or Chisholm at 3rd, which is not optimal, offensively or defensively.
It’s mainly about the $ for me. Soto is just too expensive and doesn’t provide the value overall for the contract he is seeking. Most Padres fans weren’t sad to see Soto leave and the Padres were a better team overall once they used Soto to fill other holes in their lineup.
I thought Jazz did a pretty good job at 3b bring it was a brand new position for him. I’m sure it’s dodging they’ve inducted him to work on and he send like the type with enough pride to work on his defense at the position in case he needed to start at 3b next season.
But you also have to subtract the WAR that Bergman et all are replacing. If the 3 players combined bring 9 War and Soto brings 8 by himself, that leaves you players to combine for a total of 1 WAR for it to be even. So in no world does the 3 players make more sense than 1 Juan Soto +2 literally anyone elses.
Not to mention Soto’s positive impact on others in the lineup.
he’s also one of the most entertaining players i’ve ever seen. every at-bat is a high drama psych war with the pitcher. the stuff he pulls would get anyone else drilled in the back but he can do it because he’s just so good. my message to met or red sox or blue jay or dodger or phillies fans is pray your team signs him because you will LOVE watching him play for your team
@BaseballClassic1985 True, that. Also, three good quality players push your three worst players off the 26-man. Soto only pushes one player off the roster.
@ baseballclassic Keep in mind too Walker is 34 so he could start to age poorly. Players like Arenado and Bregman I fear could be Donaldson 2.0. Particularly Arenado. Both players are on the other side of 30. Bregman benefits from a very friendly pull hitter park in Houston which isn’t as friendly in yankee stadium. Also keep in mind if they sign Soto it’s not like they will have a bunch of nobody’s at the other positions. I don’t think they would play DJ/Cabrera at 3B. I just fear if they miss out on Soto they will panic like in 2013 when they signed Beltran, McCann, Ellsbury.
Lmfao are you really this dumb. Please explain how 3 players hitting .260/30+/100+ better than 1 hitting .284/41/109? I love to hear this
@Anthony
Is that a serious question
@baseball
You can’t look at it as Soto’s WAR value vs. the WAR (or real-life value) of 3 other players. It’s Soto and his 8WAR+ whatever you get from the other players. You can replace Soto’s counting statistics in the aggregate, but you can’t replace his value at the LF position. Anytime you can get an 8 WAR player at age 26, you go for it. If we get Soto, then I wouldn’t be adverse to adding one more impact bat at 1b or 3b and then using some combo of Jazz at 3b or 2b, Rice at 1b, and Dominguez in CF.
Counting Soto at 8 WAR when that was his career season is wishful thinking.
He’s been worth just 5 WAR in 2/3 of his full seasons, to date. He hasn’t been quite as good as Marcus Semien by bWAR since Soto arrived in the league. No offense, but you’re significantly overvaluing Soto.
Apparently there’s a plane on standby…
A chance Washington Nats. 10 years 560 mil with a 75 mil upfront bonus
Soto in Boston unfortunately seems unrealistic but you never know. I think he Devers would be fun to watch together
@Rsox Maybe so, but I never understood the deal or the love for Devers. He’s a 3-4 WAR player at a non-premium position. He warranted something like a 6/120m offer, but the Red Sox gave him, what, 11/331m??
He’s beaten 3.7 WAR just once since 2019, with a modest 4.5 WAR in 2022 and his defense is already below average—but the Red Sox let Betts walk? How badly run do you have to be to do this?
Betts wanted out and the Sox seem to like the more, how should we say, mercurial players
Jack – Spot on again!!! We had four stars in Mookie, Bogey, JD and Devers. Devers gets the best contract as the worst player. JD in his prime significantly out hit Devers. Bogey has been a far more consistent hitter and way better fielder and Mookie and Devers can’t be compared. Devers is out of his league completely.
Boston’s front office and owners had a psychotic break in 2019 when they didn’t fire Cora for the enormous Spring Training screw-up, then for taking sides in the Price / Eckersley controversy, then they fired the greatest GM they have ever had or will have after he won 3 division titles from the Yankees and a World Series ring. All that snowballed into an avalanche of stupidity with low balling Mookie because he confronted them on racism against Price. Dombrowski fought to give Mookie 12 years for $420 Million which was only a $9Million a year raise but it was for 12 years and that got Dombrowski fired because the owner’s had already agree to make Devers the face of the franchise. Psychotic break is the only way for the train to completely come off the track after running so well for 15 years.
Boras steers his client to the team offering the most $. Soto is the ideal Boras client because he wants to go to the highest bidder. I laughed when I read awhile back that he cried when he left the Natuonals because he liked it there. He left because he wanted more than than the $450M or so the Nats had offered. I wonder about the differences in lifestyle afforded by making $600M rather than $500M. Must be about player and agent ego.
He’s coming to my dodgers losers
Dodgers at $1 mill per year until the year 3036.
Sox management said they were so close to getting snell, get used to it.That’s the phrase you’re going to hear with every free agent the sox go after.
source?
Doyers of course. MLB is now the WWE
Then: Miggy and Verlander Now: Soto and Skubal
Not sure why everybody is convinced it’ll be the Mets.
The Dodgers doing this seems like – why even have baseball seasons? Why not just hand the Dodgers the WS trophy and everybody stays home and collects their paychecks.
And the Yankees are still the Yankees, they’re still a team that just this season made it to the world series and weren’t eliminated in four straight games.
I wonder how much of a concern is roster stability, alleviate of the Mets have the largest offer in the table? Let’s say the 3 main qualities he’s looking for in his offers balls down to a) money b) long-term competitiveness, c) quality of life, and field earnings.
With regards to the Mets, they were a 89 win team that came in as a wild card and moved past the Braves and Phillies. If they have a ridiculous offer like $650 mil, what’s going to be their ability to replace the ’24 on field value from their current free agents? Keep in mind it’s not just the cost of the contracts it’s also the luxury tax they’ll have to pay as well. So there’s a multiplier they have to pay to retain/replace their top 3 starters Severino, Manaea, and Quintana and key bats like Alonzo, Bader, and JD. And that’s just to maintain an 89-win team. They still need to improve their bullpen. If I’m Soto, I have to ask if myself. Will Cohen be willing to spend another $100 mil annual to replace our top 3 starters and key position players and would that be enough to win the NL East and get past the Braves and Phillies? And will Cohen have the stomach to keep spending to not just make the playoffs but to be a perennial NL division leader? one thing you can say about the Yankees and the Dodgers is that they’ll likely keep spending annually to compete. Also, the Yanks have positions to address at 1b, 2b, 3b and CF but Soto has first hand witnessed some in-house options in Jazz (2b or 3b), the Oswalds (2b or 3b), Dominguez at CF and DJ (1b) at the mlb level and mlb ready (or close to it) minor league talent in Ben Rice (1b) and near ready talent in Caleb Durbin (2b), Spencer Jones. and many others he may have seen first hand last spring training. Soto knows the Yanks can address those holes without spending what the Mets need to spend just to get the roster to 2024 level.
Yanks right now have 6 starters under contract. Having Jazz as a major league proven ability at 3b and 2b , in a team friendly deal, fills one position. Giving the CF job to Dominguez handles CF. They could give the 1b job to Ben Rice or sign a short-term 1b like Walker or maybe even look at bat first 1b like Josh Bell on a 1 year deal. They could use DJ as his backup and send Rice to start the season in AAA. My point is that Soto saw the successful mlb debuts of both the AL rookie of the year in Gil and runner-up C Austil Wells. He’s seen glimpses of success from newcomers Jasson Dominguez and Ben Rice (the emotional 3 homer game) and likely he is aware of a lot of the minor league talent they have in the farm especially fellow Dominicans he may be familiar with like organizational top 10 prospects like Dominguez, Roderick Arias and Brando Mayea. The point is that he’s seen the in-house options, whereas other teams’ farms might be just named on paper to him. I think the Yanks and Dodgers grace less heavy lifting to do to field a WS contender.
If I’m the Mets, I’d try to show Soto that signing him isn’t just a priority but just the start of my rebuild. The Dodgers sent a screaming message to all how committed they are to repeat as WS champs.
As a Yanks fan I wish that whomever would be the 2nd player they sign or trade for if they win the Soto contest, that they would go ahead and get it done ASAP and send that same message to Soto/Boras that but only are we willing to commit to our sizeable offer but she not waiting around and actively doing things to strengthen the team in other areas. That tells Soto not only can I get my money, but I’m not handcuffing the team from addressing other needs. It also might light a fire in his decision process if he sees his top pursuers spend millions of their budgets to get others.
TLWR
@IH8
DGAFIYRION
@KnicksFanCavsFan Well said. If I’m Soto and I’m mulling the Mets offer, I need to know to a certainty what the payroll structure will look like.
If the Mets are signing me and plan to contend in 2025 w the aim of a solid shot at the WS, then payroll’s going to have to hit $350 million.
After Lindor it’s an old team (and even he’s getting up there in baseball years) that got very lucky in 2024, has all of one young player who’s succeeding (albeit in 3/5ths of a season), and that lost to FA 14 players who were at least useful and in total contributed 16 WAR.
In short they’re roughly a 73 win team headed in to 2025 that needs 4/5ths of a rotation, one or two starting OFers, an IF, most of a bullpen, and most of a bench in FA,
Presumably Soto doesn’t want a team that’s going to try to squeak in as the 3rd wildcard, and for the Mets to take a real shot at the division title means a $350 million payroll ($450m after penalties) given they have exactly no young players in the minors who played well enough to have even a 1 in 3 chance of putting up 3/4 of the season in MLB as a solid regular. Will Cohen credibly commit to that just for a 5-7 WAR DH playing the OF who will be both the highest paid player in the game and easily the most overpaid player in the game? Does Cohen want to?
Does Soto want this scramble rather than presumably a few million less a year from the Dodgers, who have proven to have what it takes to get to the postseason, nearly always by winning their division, only missing once since 2012, pipped at 106 wins?
Cohen proved his first three years of playing GM that he just wasn’t very good at it and couldn’t hire people who were good at it. Does Soto want to bet on Stearns sticking around, or that Cohen will stop meddling even when things get rough?
I hope Cohen comes down and realizes he is just being foolish….
Is Cohen so maluable he gets played by the media hype?
Maybe?
I doubt it. This is ALL FREE ADVERTISING AND PRESS TIME FOR COHEN AND THE METS.
Rogers could -easily- put forward the best offer. If it’s really about money, are you all thinking Steve Cohen can outbid rogers? If so, do research.
Toronto should be considered a real candidate if its mostly about money. Im hoping Guerrero signing comes with him. All or nothing like last year?
Cohen is worth about 16 bil compared to Ed Roger’s who’s around $11 bil.
Knicks – So are you thinking guys with 50% more billions has a better chance? Seems to me all the billionaires can afford it so it’s more likely something else will be the deciding factor if all can match the money.
@Sagacity Exactly. No billionaire team owner of one of the major franchises is going to be offering Soto more money per year than he can easily afford.
Someone else made the point using the example of a garage sale coffee cup. Who cares if Bill Gates is your opposing bidder? If Gates wants to outbid you by spending more than the cup is worth, you haven’t lost anything—but he has.
I fully understand the economics of baseball. You don’t become a billionaire by making bad business decisions. Rogers, being a hugely wealthy media corporation owning the only baseball club in the country has a lot of inherent value, debatably more than almost any other given the synergies involved to milk him for revenue. Especially a vlad soto duo.
“You don’t become a billionaire by making bad business decisions.”
—Genuinely amusing. Becoming and remaining a billionaire despite making bad business decisions is precisely where MLK’s frequent description of the US economic system came from, as: “socialism for the rich, capitalism for the poor.”
Take a look at Rogers Corporation’s balance sheets. Toronto Blue Jays is considered miscellaneous. Not about the wealth of the individual.
They can and know they have to overpay. There are other incentives in TOR besides just cash (top of the line player dev facility) and Guerrero feels like he could be important. What does Soto really care about?
Like with Ohtani the Jays are not the favorites but they should be in the conversation way more than people realize
Steinbrenner better sign him! If he cries poor he should sell the team to someone who can afford to run the Yankees the way god meant them to be run: with stars, questionable financial decisions for said stars and Brian Cashman at the helm till someone pries the organization from his cold dead fingers.
That said I think Hal is serious and that’s good because he has to sign Soto or suffer a huge loss of face, credibility and compliant fans buying 25$ beers.
So, please and thank you to Hal! PLEASE!
And for what it’s worth I like the Cash Man.
First time I’ve heard that from a Yankees fan on this board!
I think you’re right. The Yankees need Soto more than anyone else does. Cashman and Hal can recover, though, if they miss out, by adding say Burnes or Fried, Bregman or Adams at 3B, and Walker at 1B—-and they’d be a better team for it than if they added Soto.
But they’ll be scorched if they miss and try to go cheap.
please not the dodgers
i beg
He’s gonna be signing with Philly just watch
Soto is a pipe dream for every team other than the Mets if the most money is what he wants. Cohen is already on record saying he will go 50 million over whatever the next closest offer is.
@Bruin1012 A citation would help, giving how imbecilic it would be for Cohen to announce such nonsense in advance.
Who ever gets Soto is already overpaying. To then volunteer to overpay the highest bidder of 29 teams by another $50 million is the height of foolishness, and only tells us Cohen isn’t letting Stearns GM the team.
Cohen has already made the idiotic deal for Lindor (18.6 bWAR 2022-2024 v 16.7 bWAR for Giminez—where Giminez projects to comfortably beat Lindor’s production over the next six seasons, Lindor’s age 31-36 seasons v Giminez’s age 26-31 seasons. Price difference; 10/$361m v 8/$104m + a team option) in his other big ‘splash.’ If he’s forcing Stearns to pay something like $650 million to Soto that won’t be spent on other players, then Cohen’s only compounding his ignorance.
No surprise to attentive Mets fans. They already saw what Cohen was in 2021, a year that would have fit in comfortably to the worst of the Wilpon years.
2018-2024, Player—bWAR
Marcus Semien—37.4 bWAR
Juan Soto—36.4 bWAR
Matt Chapman—35.2 bWAR
But, sure, let’s make Juan Soto the highest paid player on the longest contract ever signed in MLB.
Non-HOFers:
= Chase Utley 49.3, 2005-2011
= Kenny Lofton 41.9, 1992-1998
= Bobby Grich 39.9, 1972-1978
Juan Soto 36.4, 2018-2024
= Keith Hernandez 39.9 WAR 1979-1985
= Jim Edmonds, 37.7 2000-2006
= John Olerud 33.7, 1996-2002
= Abreu 41.6, 1998-2004
= Carlos Correa 34.6, 2016-2022
= Ian Kinsler 34.1, 2009-2015
= Bernie Williams 37.0 1995-2001
= Will Clark 32.9 1988-1994
= Palmeiro 35.5 1993-1999
= Matt Holiday 33.5, 2007-2013
= Billy Williams 36.5, 1962-1968
= Adrian Gonzalez 34.6, 2009-2015
= Brett Butler 32.7, 1986-1992
= Andruw 42.2, 1998-2004; 41.5, 1999-2005; 2000-2006, 40.0
= Jose Altuve 35.1, 2013-2019
= Dale Murphy, 37.2, 1982-1988
Jack – Now make the same argument with a reliable measurement. All forms of WAR are a joke and not a measuring stick for success. Compare the same people using facts like R, HR, RBI, OBP, SLG, SB. Then you might have an argument. Each WAR data point is a gross estimation with next to no accuracy tied to it. Great argument but with unfounded data it’s meaningless.
In a comparison of Devers and Soto I showed that the two are not even close in their production levels. Soto is a monster compared to a very good Devers. Then you add the BS about Soto’s fielding and how incorrect the metric estimate is related to fielding and people who believe in the virtual reality world of metrics have completely constructed a lie about Soto’s abilities. He’s a generational player who far more than Devers who should make roughly $22Million to $25 Million per year but makes $30 Million instead. The REAL data shows that Soto is roughly 1.5 to 1.75 times as productive as Devers.
I love how much research you did but it was based on a fabricated estimate not a real statistic which invalidates the entire analysis. If you believe in the metrics produced by clowns like Statcast that’s great, but believing and proving the estimates valid are two different things. It’s a predictive measure that has no basis in reality and can not account for the differences between individuals with gross generalizations.
The theory of counting Wins is fundamentally incorrect because there is no causal relationship between the projections made through all the assumptions made in the formula and reality. No two players are alike and to build an evaluation system that suggests what=if they are alike is fundamentally flawed.
Statistics are after the event facts and metrics are predictive estimates. I live in the real world so I want real facts. If you believe in the simulated world, then metrics fit your world but there is no accuracy in your world.