Red Sox brass have been signaling their intent to have an aggressive offseason, with president and CEO Sam Kennedy doubling down this week, per Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe. As they look to navigate the next few months, they apparently don’t view the competitive balance tax as a red line. “Even if it takes us over the CBT,” said Kennedy at the owners meetings, “our priority is 90 to 95 wins, and winning the American League East, and winning the division for multiple years.”
Those comments are in line with some that Kennedy made last month, when he also referenced the 90-95 win window as well as targeting a division title. It seems the club is planning to reverse course after several years of playing things a bit more modestly.
Looking at payroll data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox were one of the top six spenders in each year from 2000 to 2020, a stretch in which they won four titles. But they have dropped themselves down to middle of the pack lately, including being 12th in each of the past two seasons. Perhaps not coincidentally, the results have dropped off, with the Sox finishing last in the American League east in three of the past five years.
Red Sox fans might roll their eyes after chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments last year didn’t lead to much, but that arguably makes it more notable that the Sox have been taking every opportunity to raise expectations again, as letting the fans down two years in a row would obviously be poor public relations strategy.
Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow spoke of looking to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation earlier this month. As mentioned, this is the second time that Kennedy has been forthright in stating that the club is planning to take a shot at the division, this time indicating that they might even get into tax payor status as they do so. They have already been connected to big-name free agents like Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Willy Adames, Max Fried and others.
“Is that possible? If that’s what it takes, yeah, absolutely,” Kennedy said of adding a mega deal to the club’s ledger. “We are investing more than we did last year. We intend to invest going forward. There is an extreme urgency internally to be competing for the American League East Championship and to set ourselves up for a deep postseason run in 2025 without question. The goal is to win 90 plus games to not be worrying about a wild card spot.”
Assuming the club is indeed willing to cross the tax line, that gives them a lot of spending power this winter. RosterResource currently calculates the club’s CBT number at $171MM for 2025. The lowest threshold of the tax will $241MM next year, meaning the Sox could give out contracts with about $70MM in terms of average annual value before getting to the line.
That might not even be the cap of their spending ability if they are willing to go beyond the base threshold. The Sox haven’t paid the tax since 2022, so they would be a “first-time” payor in 2025. That means they would be looking at a base tax rate of just 20%, with higher rates for going beyond the three further thresholds, each one being $20MM higher than the one before.
Soto is expected to land a historic deal, with many predictions suggesting he could get something in the window of $45-50MM annually. Theoretically, it’s possible for the Sox to sign Soto and still have money for other moves, if they are willing to go over the line. Or even without signing Soto, they could sign multiple players from the next tier of free agency.
Of course, saying that you’re willing to pay the tax and then actually doing it are two different things. It’s still entirely possible that the Sox are aggressive in ways that push the payroll towars the tax line without going over. That could mean less activity in free agency while being more active on the trade market, or perhaps not doing much in either sphere.
However it plays out, that gives the club a lot of possible options in terms of upgrading a team that went 81-81 in 2024. They have some strong core players like Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck and others. They have a lauded group of prospects which includes the “Big Four” of Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel and Roman Anthony, who are all on the cusp of the majors. Those players could perhaps be used as part of a mega deal for someone like Garrett Crochet, or they could be kept as the Sox address their roster with free agents instead. “Everything and anything’s on the table for us,” Kennedy said. “Free agency, trades, promotions from the minor leagues.”
Well they got the talk the talk down…
Olm – Very old news, recycled by ownership just saying it a different way.
“The club has never been run with a specific financial, bottom line metric.” – Sam Kennedy 2022.
I think things are different now that Theo Epstein is back.
Seeing is believing. Bottom line for me is I’ll decide in March if I’ll buy the MLB package. Never before was it a decision (although I recently got it for free through T-Mobile).
I think the Red Sox will make some big offers. Hopefully people sign.
If the Red Sox make the top offer, they’ll usually land the free agent. If they are short on dollars or years, they won’t.
That’s usually how it works, but money isn’t everything to everyone. Hopefully things work out and people sign.
or hopefully the sox pony up and pay.
All = Until something happens we are still living Ground Hog’s Day.
The 10 year/$313.5MM extension for Devers last year counts as something, but you manage to ignore it.
I’ll decide in March if I’ll buy the MLB package.
========================
That’s never a decision. Even if the RS traded everyone for a rebuild, you still have to watch the rest of baseball.
You can almost see his nose growing.
Fat – With Bloom it was his chin that grew when lying!
Raise the ceiling!
John Stanton has entered the chat.
In all seriousness IF fsg decides to flex financially there isnt a reasonable contract they cant match..i say reasonable because i still doubt they would get in a bidding war with someone like steve cohen who ive read will try and outbid others by 50 million…thats fine for a fan but hard to justify to a board of directors and shareholders because its not good business and a business is how the red sox are now being run..but aside from that..no reason they cant be in on anyone
“…thats fine for a fan but hard to justify to a board of directors and shareholders because its not good business and a business is how the red sox are now being run”
This line doesn’t really make any sense. Even the mega-rich franchises have a functional, practical limit on how much can be spent, and as in every sport overpaying any one guy too much will eventually limit what’s left to spend on others. So it is always in a team’s interest to draw SOME line for how much they are willing to dive in with any one player, even before considering what boards or shareholders want. That their desire (to not overextend too far relative to their team’s revenue) lines up with that COMPETITIVE reality is means that said desire isn’t really changing anything.
So where does this notion come from that this is “now” how Boston is being run? They’ve long been in the Tier 1.5 (not a NYY or LAD Tier 1, but more than Tier 2) spender, and even in recent years their exceptions have only been to make sure to finish short of the luxury tax, not to drop lower than that.
The fact is that the Yankees and Dodgers of the world most win the FA bidding wars because their “extra mile” on a revenue basis is bigger than that of others. Boston can extend further than most, but not to that level, boards/shareholders or not. Sure, they could at any time choose to blow away their spending/revenue ratio, but for whatever reason that’s rare among any of the bigger spenders.
Too much coffee man?
The two words in caps are meant for emphasis, not volume or gittery energy or something. Wish we had more tools available here to help make that clearer.
A huge part of the red sox revenue comes from nesn if they can’t put a good product on the field that streaming service is gonna lose subscribers. This I think will get henry’s attention.
Alan – Substantial drop in Red Sox revenue when MLB revenue has spiked, THAT has already gotten Henry’s attention.
Sluggish 2025 season ticket sales has also gotten his attention.
I’ve said all along if the financials get bad enough, they will start spending again.
Can’t wait to see Forbes’ numbers.
red sox are a bit of an outlier because FSG ownership has become so watered down that multiple hedge funds could hypothetically exert pressure to maximize profit. the red sox are now one of several FSG revenue streams alongside (among others) real estate development and the PGA
The sox brass really need to stop talking. With the kind of resources they have, expecting 90 wins and challenging for the AL East should be a given. The fact that he said that’s “our priority” for 2025 confirms that it hasn’t been the priority the past 3 years (which was evident, but still not something they should publicize).
I really hope there’s a plan here and they’re not spending just to spend.
Well said, baron. It’s too bad the Sox had to dismantle a championship squad a few years back to arrive at this obvious conclusion.
They didn’t “have” to dismantle anything, and didn’t. The 2018 team was amazing, but for some reason folks don’t realize that Boston rolled out virtually the same team in 2019 and saw that a plummet to 84 wins with those guys on hand an a weak minor league system was not something that could simply be reloaded. Boston could have pushed to keep that group’s window open as long as possible until erosion led to a complete blowup (including multiple outright BAD seasons as a result) or else they needed to pull back as they retooled. The only move that really stings is the Betts trade, and at the time and ever since there was always a lot of reason to believe that Betts was going to leave Boston after 2020 and the franchise knew it. Otherwise, what non-sensible “dismantling” did the franchise engage in? Were they wrong to move on from Benintendi when they did? Wrong to not match the ridiculous overpay of Bogaerts by SD?
They needed to rebuild the foundation, and that Bloom took too long to do it is why he isn’t in Boston anymore. But that shouldn’t be treated as some massive screwup of general approach, especially with the franchise on paper having accomplished what they set out to do (with the MLB roster having a number of quality pieces and the minor league system ready to offer big help).
Your phrase “folks don’t realize” is telling. You are expressing your point of view, as I have expressed my point of view. It’s not a matter of “folks don’t realize,” it’s a difference of opinion. As for 2019, that was Cora allowing the starting pitchers to essentially skip Spring Training. Further, giving away a franchise, home grown talent such as Mookie is, by definition, dismantling the team. Chaim Bloom’s buy & sell (lost & found) strategy at trade deadlines is another glaring example of a franchise gone wrong. Players like Matt Barnes & Xander were openly critical. The ‘Mookie was leaving town’ excuse is tired – I simply do not agree. The Sox made several bad decisions since 2019 and now they, too, the Sox brass, appear to be acknowledging that reality.
A hypothetical that looks as bad as what actually was reality is not a great example. We can guess what would have happened if we kept spending and held on to an MVP after an 84-win season. I find it hard to believe that the consequences would have been two last place finishes and our high-water mark being 81 and 81.
you’re right…they might have had another 81-81 season plus a couple below .500 as well
Anything is possible, however all we can go by is what actually happened.
You are expressing your point of view, as I have expressed my point of view.
============================
But it isn’t. Your POV is that, and I quote, ” Sox had to dismantle a championship squad “.
The team that they dismantled won 84 games. That’s a fact, not an opinion. If you want an opinion, that would be more like, who was on the 2019 team:
Price-Finished
Porcello-Finished
Pedroia-Finished
Sale-11 starts over the next three seasons
We still had some players, but the 2019 was exactly what they looked like. And the 2020 teams played .400 in a small sample.
There was no longer anything there to dismantle.
You’re telling me what my point of view is now? Cora wrecked that 2019 team. I’m not debating the “fact” of 84 wins, my point of view, considering the Sox won in 2018, is the Sox brass dismantled a championship team. It’s a matter of differing points of view. The Mookie Betts trade is inexcusable. I just can’t imagine why any reasonable Sox fan would rationalize such an horrendous trade – one of the absolute worst in baseball history. That’s my point of view.
We can guess what would have happened if we kept spending and held on to an MVP after an 84-win season.
=========================
We could’ve gotten better had we spent more. But there wasn’t any way to get to a championship level team without being about the highest paid team in BB.
2020-Disaster
2021-92 wins-if we added Betts’ 4.0 bWAR instead of Verdugo’s 2.3, it doesn’t move the needle. And that would also have meant giving in to Bett’s demand for $35M, as well as keeping Price for an additional $15M.. That would be another $50M on top of the #5 payroll
2022-78 wins, and again, it would be another $50M on top of the #5 payroll.
2023-78 wins and again, it would be another $35M on top of the #12 payroll.
None of these teams were particularly good. They would’ve been very expensive teams that were slightly over .500.
William 2 – $41 Milliion in retained payroll not associated with Dombrowski caused the over the cap situation and while he inherits that embarrassment by the owners he wins 3 division championships and a ring spending no more than $165 Million on the roster he put together.
What negative trend is happening from those FACTS?. The $41 Million was rolling off over the next two years so the temporary problem caused by Cherington was slotted in the Dombrowski 2016 to 2022 plan he built. The refresh year was clearly set for end of 2022 when many of the contracts needed to be extended or NOT. There was no big contracts from him ruining the future. If he had gotten Mookie at 12 years for $36 Million as Mookie asked the team would still have been under the cap and loaded with all-stars for $9Million a year more. Considering JBJ was being paid $11 Million a year, it was clear that JBJs future was only going to last until Duran was ready..
2019 was an injury year caused by Cora’s screw-up during spring training. The moron told the Starting Staff to take an extra two weeks before reporting to camp. They weren’t ready for the Japan and West Coast late March/Early April schedule. FIrst Eovaldi got hurt, then both Price and Sale struggled all because Cora screwed up and should have been fired immediately because it was clear his non existent experience was killing the championship team.
We wouldn’t have kept spending because the players were all in place. Guys like Benny and Devers were improving, Mookie, JD, Bogey were studs. Pedroia got wrecked by Manny so 2B was weak. Devers couldn’t field but his connections prevented him from being moved. Vazquez and Leon were inexpensive adequate catchers. The team had championship talent so there was no need to seek out any all-stars to spend money. If Dombrowski saw a trade opportunity to upgrade a pitcher I think he would have but we’ll never know for sure.
This disaster was all created by ownership and NOTHING forced it to happen. They chose the wrong path or maybe chose the intended path to maximize profits.
Joe – Simply not true what you wrote.
C – Vazquez/Leon. Still there. Never great but adequate.
1B – Moreland – Still there
2B – Pedroia hurt creating a downgrade at the position. Personally I liked Holt but they dumped him.
SS – Bogey the all-star
3B – Devers the all-star and crap fielder.
LF – Benny a victim of Cora’s mismanaging with respect to hitting.
CF – JBJ – still there until Duran was ready
RF – Mookie – Greatest Red Sox player since Ted
DH – Martinez – yet another all-star
Totally loaded hitting team
After the 2019 season the pitching was
Sale – Not yet hurt by Cora’s mechanics change that led to TJ surgery
Price – Who never pitched again thanks to COVID
Eovaldi – Strong #3 starter
EROD – Good stuff but inconsistent fine at the 3rd spot
Houck – Top prospect ready to pitch in 2020
So Cora creates a year without Sale and Dombrowski would have had to solve that issue and Price’s heart and COVID causes another issue Dombrowski would have had to deal with.
But the overall roster in 2020 was in bad shape because of Cora not Dombrowski. He’s a problem solver and would have found a way to make the team competitive in my opinion. Something neither Bloom nor Breslow is capable of doing.
There was no excuse to justify what the owners did in destroying their franchise. The day Mookie was traded I said it would take 5 to 10 years to recover from the move. It’s been five and we are not recovered yet.
Sorry Joe this franchise was better off with Dombrowski and the 2018 roster in 2020. It’s ridiculous to suggest anything different. The team had Mookie, Bogey, JD, Benny, Devers, Vazquez, JBJ, Holt,Moreland as hitters before Bloom tore it down and they had Sale, Price, Eovaldi, EROD, Houck as pitchers for the 2020 season. IT WAS NOT DISMANTLED.
It’s just that simple. That dreadful day in February 2020 blew up the foundation of the roster and then Bloom removed the many star pieces over the next several years.
The old roster could have flourished under Dombrowski. He’s never failed to put together great rosters anywhere else and he just won 3 division titles for the first time in Red Sox history. It’s foolish to suggest the team was dismantled before Dombrowski was fired and Bloom was hired. Bloom the terrible did all the damage that we are still suffering with.
Joe – Again NOT TRUE.
Your opinion is just that, your opinion. We don’t know what would have happened.
You seem to be missing the point. Ownership fired Dombrowski which created a disastrous series of events. Let’s just go back to ST in 2019 and fire Cora instead during the off season for being a two time cheater.
Then the new manager has everyone report on time. Eovaldi probably doesn’t get hurt. Price and Sale both are allowed to pitch in their styles/mechanics not Cora’s and they don’t have issues to start the 2019 season from not enough prep time. There is a great chance removing Cora may have allowed Boston to win a fourth Division Title and another ring.
Your guesses are no more valid than mine. We’ll never know but knowing how great Dombrowski has been over his career the Red Sox would have been competitive EVERY year.
That’s all that matters to me because the owners still would have made more money than 25 or more of the other teams.
I think you just argued with someone that agrees with you. My point was that this tear down and rebuild was management forced. Pretty much unnecessary. Sale was a dagger, but that team had a solid core that could have been supplemented. Boston did the opposite of what the Yankees would have done. The Yankees would have kept the productive guys, cut bait on the mediocre guys, tried prospects out while bringing in talent. It’s why they are nearly always a lock for a floor of 85 wins, and a playoff contender every year.
Cora wrecked that 2019 team.
=======================
How so? Price, Porcello, Sale and Eovaldi combined for a 4.4 bWAR for ~ $94M. They combined for 29-29 with a 4.99 ERA.
There was nothing there.
Sale – Not yet hurt by Cora’s mechanics change that led to TJ surgery
Price – Who never pitched again thanks to COVID
Eovaldi – Strong #3 starter
EROD – Good stuff but inconsistent fine at the 3rd spot
============================
Sale 6-11 4.40
Price 7-5 4.28
Eovaldi 2-1 5.99
ERod 19-6 3.81
Porcello 14-12 5.52
You aren’t a contender with that rotation.
Joe: I don’t see how one person (Cora) could be blamed for the whole season of 2019. It was an organizational failure. Cora was not the only one involved in making decisions. There is a GM, coaching staff, etc. Also, Cora didn’t play a single play on the field.
Joe – Cora badly mishandled Spring Training in 2019. That “fact” has been referenced 5-6 times in this thread. I’m starting to think you just might be Alex Cora himself. You ever lived in Houston?
All – Look Joe can quote numbers that happened as a result of some huge mistakes by Cora and somehow suggest that with proper prep time and pitching advice from a real pitching coach rather than a bench jockey wouldn’t have changed the 2019 season. That’s silly. Of course arriving on time to ST would have made a difference. Of course Cora staying out of the pitching advice would have made a huge difference. He’s an idiot and knows nothing about pitching and if you haven’t observed that by now, you might be blind.
The CORE team could have been kept and more championships could have been won. This should NOT have been an inevitable outcome as Joe is suggesting.
That’s the point. The team was a contender until Cora intervened with his nonsensical decisions about ST, the pitching staff, the batting order and the in game decisions.
The TALENT had not left the roster. The roster was simply impacted and the problems snowballed but it was simply one season after 3 stellar seasons. You don’t throw out the baby with the bath water because you go through a rough patch caused by an idiot.
The 2018 core was kept for years except for Mookie who was traded after 2019. Price was also traded with Mookie, but he was erratic year to year. So, it was fine with me to shed his often wasted salary. Mookie was really the only big loss from 2018 that I see. We kept Devers and Bogaerts, Sale, ERod and Eovaldi stayed for years. Benintendi stayed and went down the drain.
90-95 wins isn’t a “given” for any team, and spending doesn’t guarantee getting to that point. That’s the thing many of the more vocally complaining Sox fans fail over and over to grasp the past few years.
@Ken – I agree, 90 games isn’t a given. That’s why I said they should “expect” to win 90 games every year. Whether they do or not isn’t a given. But they should spend to a level that puts a team on the field that’s capable of winning 90 games. That should be the expectation. 90 wins is 9 games above .500. That’s not exactly a high bar with the amount of revenue they generate.
What they’ve been doing is spending in the middle of the pack and not being aggressive to fill clear holes in their roster. All of this while sitting on the cash they generate through their own TV network and the most expensive tickets in the league. If they were spending in the top 10 in the league and were just unlucky, I feel like the fans would understand. But these past 3 seasons, they haven’t even tried to compete for the AL East in a real way.
I don’t think that’s realistic for a Boston. The difference between a Yankees/Dodgers and the next group of spenders is that those two teams can expect to win 90+ games every year and have the financial margin of error to mostly fulfill that without risk of setbacks large enough to cause medium-term damage. The Bostons of the world when run by strong front offices can do the same, but under more ordinary management pushing for at least that most every year without break will eventually lead to enough damaging moves that it starts to drag on things. At that point, they could leverage spending to avoid sliding into bad seasons, but it would likely come at the cost of ceiling, basically killing the ability to put out a championship “favorite”.
The Bostons of the world should be able to “pull back” without being noncompetitive or spending ordinary money or less on payroll, and the fact is that the franchise has indeed avoided both of those. They’ve only pulled back spending to the point of avoiding needless tax penalty seasons, and especially in the ridiculously competitive AL East they have put forth competitive rosters (though only that) even as they have been holding back. If anything, that is exactly what a franchise at Boston’s market level should be doing when it reworks its entire process.
redsoxu571 – In 1962 after winning half the world series in the previous 42 years, the Yankee dynasty died. Yes they spent more money than everyone but they wasted it to lengths never seen before. From 1988 to 2018 (30 years) they outspent Boston by $300 Million. The early Jeter years gave them 4 wins and they got one in 2009. Boston with lots less money stayed competitive but was nearly as bad at finding smart contracts. Four rings in 15 years suggests lots of success but it was intermittent because of the reality that you can’t stay healthy and have peak seasons EVERY year. Dombrowski brought stability like we had never seen. 3 seasons and 3 divisions should have made him a legend in Boston but for some reason the owners didn’t appreciate what he accomplished. Some of the idiot fans didn’t even understand that he was only responsible for the current roster not the past mistakes so they WRONGFULLY blamed the high spending on him. People simply don’t get it.
Dombrowski brings an understanding of how to build dynasties through internal grow and good acquisitions. His 2016 to 2022 plan was brilliant. He systematically raised salaries during the spring training of the season before players became free agents. He was on track to take care of Mookie in 2020 and had check points with guys like Bogey, JD and Devers at the end of the 2022 season. He followed his plan and upgraded Sale from his home town discount the spring training prior to his free agency like the others. There was not way for him to know Cora was going to screw over the 2019 season. Someone should have dumped Cora the minute they realized he had no idea how to manage. He was a bench coach/baby sitter in Houston and it worked. In Boston he created the downfall of a dynasty.
Now, without Dombrowski, the advantage we had over the Yankees is gone. Cashman is not any smarter he”s still terrible at creating good contracts but the big money is still there and he used it wisely on Cole and Judge. He missed on Stanton and many others allowing the lesser spending Dombrowski team to dominate the division for 3 years.
When Friedman left TB he stepped into a Yankee-like situation and handled much like Cashman did. He made bad deals and let go outstanding players to pick up other more expensive players. It wasn’t until his protege Bloom gave him Mookie that he ever won ANYTHING. Then after failing 3 more times with a Yankee-like payroll he went to the owners got a billion dollars of talent which help him win a second time.
Boston can’t compete with them unless they have a GM who understands what it takes to win like Dombrowski. Breslow is not that guy and clearly Bloom was maybe the worst GM in the team’s history.
redsoxU571 = I believe everything you said about the imbalance of power was correct but I think you read the ownership group incorrectly. They haven’t pulled back because they can’t compete, they simply chose profits over performance. It’s the same thing the Cub owners figured out after they won for the first time in 100 years. The field is iconic, the team doesn’t need to be to make lots of money.
Since the day Cora was forced to be taken by Dombrowski, the owners are managing their lack of diversity and are basically saying “If you want to publicly criticize us for not being diverse, we’ll teach you a lesson. We’ll solve the diversity issue by hiring an unqualified manager who meets the demand for diversity, we’ll put others in the front office that meet the criteria for diversity and we’ll step back out of the limelight to count our profits as the team deals with their new and diverse infrastructure. It’s an in your face for calling me out response and it’s made them a ton of money and destroyed the competitiveness of the organization. But hey, you can’t say the owners aren’t diverse now!!!
If you don’t spend, you’re not going to get to that point.
With all due respect, the Yankees have a floor of 85 wins baked into the roster with the expectation of 90-95 based on payroll and the caliber of talent. If it clicks, they go higher.
It is the reason why even during all those years they failed to win a ring, they still held the best record in all of baseball during all those years overall. If you make a concerted effort to compete every year and bring in the best available talent you will win consistently. Doesn’t mean a ring, but it does mean you will contend every year for the playoffs barring catastrophic injuries (look at the handful of years they underperformed, and you can see exactly why with little guess work). They will more than likely make a majority of playoffs, and each time they do they have a chance at a ring.
There is your difference. The Yankees don’t take a few years off. Their rebuilds are jettisons, rookies and signings to replace talent. They are trying to make the playoffs every year regardless of results. Were we?
William – Great post!
Anybody who claims spending is not a key to frequent contending needs to look at the Dodgers and Yankees over the last 30 years.
Look at how many times they have NOT made the playoffs. Basically every year it’s 28 other teams competing for the remaining 10 postseason berths.
LA has been in the postseason 19 of the past 30 seasons. Atlanta has been there 21 times. Spending doesn’t guarantee success. And it certainly doesn’t guarantee WS wins.
Spending certainly helps a lot though
Yes, spending cannot guarantee wins. But not spending guarantees not winning. Even if you have a really cheap team full of young guys who all pan out and make a playoff run, you have to spend to keep them or suck again.
What’s the last team to win the World Series while outside the top 10 spending? Maybe the Royals in 2016?
Ken – Hahaha …. thank you for proving my point even further! You’re too young to remember the Dodgers under owner Frank McCourt when they were dragged into bankruptcy.
Before Guggenheim/Mark Walter bought the team in 2012, here’s their payroll ranking and postseason status:
2012 – No postseason; 12th payroll
2011 – No postseason; 12th payroll
2010 – No postseason; 12th payroll
2009 – Postseason; 9th payroll
2008 – Postseason; 7th payroll
2007 – No postseason; 6th payroll;
2006 – Postseason; 6th payroll
2005 – No postseason; 11th payroll
2004 – Postseason; 7th payroll
2003 – No postseason; 4th payroll
2002 – No postseason; 5th payroll
2001 – No postseason; 3rd payroll
2000 – No postseason; 2nd payroll
1999 – No postseason; 8th payroll
1998 – No postseason; 12th payroll
1997 – No postseason; 10th payroll
1996 – Postseason; 7th payroll
1995 – Postseason; 17th payroll
1993 – No postseason 8th payroll
And ever since that 2012 sale when payroll went up to stay?
They have made the postseason EVERY YEAR SINCE 2013 while having the TOP PAYROLL IN THE LEAGUE FOR EIGHT OF THOSE 12 YEARS.
ebred – The few people here claiming the Red Sox don’t need to spend to win consistently are merely sucking up to the cheap ownership.
Those few people want Sox ownership to pocket more money instead of re-investing into the team …. what does that tell you?
Fever Pitch Guy: “The few people here claiming the Red Sox don’t need to spend to win consistently are merely sucking up to the cheap ownership.”
=================
There is absolutely no one here claiming that the Red Sox don’t need to spend to win. You are making things up again.
It wasn’t the priority because the roster wasn’t in position to do it. They hired DD to take a strong talent base and turn it into a champion, and he did just that. Mission accomplished. After the 2018 championship and hard drop in 2019, their system was weak and their MLB roster was already starting to erode from injuries (e.g. Sale) and premature decline (Benintendi) and if they wanted to present a truly strong roster annually for decade-long lengths they needed to reset things first. DD wasn’t the right guy to oversee that, so they hired Bloom to build things back up, figuring they had earned enough good will (especially with another ALCS appearance in 2021) to do the job right rather than halfway.
Bloom took too long and made enough mistakes that he’s gone now, but hey presto, the talent base has indeed been built back up. As long as they follow it up with the appropriate push, it’s a sensible approach to have taken.
Ironically, you worry about “spending just to spend”, but that’s literally all the Red Sox could have done more the past few years. Go back to write-ups from each of the past offseasons highlighting which additions people thought the franchise should target (realistically, rather than just pie in the sky), and you’ll see a minefield of potential signings that would have gone wrong. Even the biggest move the team actually made (Story), seemingly to throw the fans a bone, has been a major negative.
The brass doesn’t need to stop talking – we just need an end to the clickbait portion of the media knowingly stoking up fan ire (for a franchise that for the past quarter century has done GREAT overall work) by painting a BS picture of “they should be spending a lot more and that they aren’t means they don’t care about winning”. Boston has never been a franchise that never suffers a hiccup here and there, so why should it suddenly be immune to pulling back relatively lightly while building things back up? Why do you suppose the media frauds knowingly would exclusively highlight “last place” finishes for teams that were essentially average and competitive? They just want to drive engagement by pissing fans off, no matter the negative cost to fan enjoyment and the ability of the franchise to stay the course.
Of course, all this changes if the franchise keeps holding back even with the table now set well. But if they take this “ready to push” position and follow it up by actually pushing, everything would essentially unfold as the franchise basically outlined when Bloom was hired and held to throughout that Bloom era. We’re at the key moment, so we wait to see what actions are taken!
@Redsox – ok, this is all very well written, and I’m excited they’re (hopefully) going to make a push to compete with all the new prospects coming up, but I don’t buy in to the myth that they need to bottom out after each championship. I’m not going to go back and parse every single free agent deal, but the fact that Story was their biggest signing in the last 5 years illustrates exactly what I’m saying. The past 2 offseasons at least, they’ve needed better starting pitching and a first baseman. They did next to nothing to address this, to the point where they even traded away the NL Cy Young winner for a bag of balls.
Why do the Red Sox need years of noncompetitive baseball between playoff appearances? Why is it ok for this billion-dollar organization to just press pause for a few years while telling us that these 18-20 year olds will be great someday, just trust us? They could have put a better product on the field in the meantime.
I’ll bet they land Snell and Fried
They could and then use propects to trade for vladimir guerrero junior and relief pitching.
Why would Toronto trade Vlad Jr, and more importantly why would they trade him in the division?
Teams don’t typically trade their homegrown superstars.
They haven’t signed him and red sox have one of the best farm systems
Ok, how often do superstars get traded inside a division?
Do the Red Sox have a need at 1B that would require them trading a good chunk of their good prospects for?
It makes literally no sense.
Vlad????? Confused
crochet will be the target in my humble opinion because he is inexpensive. this will give the sox more money to spend on free agents
Landing Crochet will require emptying the farm, I got the feeling that is not the direction brass will take now. I think they feel they are in position to add-on through free agency without subtracting from the farm. I think Freid and Snell are the TOR targets and they will run up the price on Soto. I think they want a bidding war on Soto so they can get Snell and Freid at better prices. Personally the farm is deep at outfield I think they should re-sign Tyler O’Neil and let the youth come up for cups of coffee when he’s dealing with minor injuries. You get 30 homers at about half of Soto’s price maybe less.
That’s nice when one of the wealthiest teams in the sport is willing to pay a minor tax. They should be paying one pretty much yearly.
Sam Kennedy earlier this off-season: We don’t talk publicly about what we plan to do with our payroll, not because we’re trying to hide anything from the media, from the fans, we just don’t like to talk publicly about our payroll pans because we see it as a competitive advantage in the American League East,” Kennedy said when asked about payroll.
So which is it Sam. Getting real tired of this.
Guy flip flops so much he should get into politics.
I’ll believe it when I see it but this is probably the position the Red Sox brass have been waiting for. Payroll flexibility + stocked farm system with big league ready talent.
cg – Except they’ve had the payroll flexibility and stocked farm for the past two years.
After the 2022 season the only remaining contract from the pre-rebuild aka Dombrowski era was Sale, there wasn’t any other inherited payroll commitments.
And the farm was already stocked, with the first wave of promotions already happening (Casas, Duran, Bello, Houck, Rafaela, Crawford). plus others who have since been traded such as Yorke.
There was literally no reason why the Sox refused to contend in 2023-2024 except greed.
I don’t think they could have reasonably contended in 2023, Fever. It isn’t really about the talent in the minors so much as it is about the production from cost-controlled players in the majors. That’s a nice list of talented prospects, but if you look at their 2023 production you get: Duran +2.5 WAR, Crawford +2.4 WAR, Casas +1.7 WAR, Bello +1.6 WAR, Houck +1.2 WAR. That’s less than 10 WAR from cost-controlled talent. Figure on +45 WAR to contend, so you would need to come up with the other +35 WAR by paying guys FA-level salaries – figure a $300M+ payroll.
The 2024 season was different. On the pitching side alone you had Houck +3.9 WAR, Bello +2.0 WAR, Crawford +1.9 WAR, Slaten +1.5 WAR, Criswell +1.1 WAR for +10.4 WAR. Now add Duran +6.7 WAR, Abreu +3.1 WAR, Hamilton +1.7 WAR, Wong +1.1 WAR, Rafaela +0.9 WAR for another +13.5 WAR. When you get roughly +25 WAR from young cost-controlled talent, you just need +20 WAR of veteran talent. Of course they fell about ~10 wins short of that, because most of their veterans (Story, Giolito, Yoshida) were unproductive. And because they were paying Sale to play somewhere else.
The 2025 situation ought to be even rosier, for the simple reason that all that talent listed above remains cheap and they have an even larger wave on the verge of the majors. I would expect +30 WAR or better from the young cost-controlled talent, enough that they could play .500 baseball with a payroll under $100M. If they can get even a little production from the remaining $150M of payroll, they are in the playoffs. Of course that is more likely if they spend it on top players instead of signing another round of Story/Yoshida/Duvall/Turner/Jansen/Giolito. Not that those guys aren’t decent (when healthy), but they aren’t going to put you over the top.
TFF17 – One of the best commentaries I’ve seen on the article. You pointed out the problem very precisely.
If only we could put you in Henry’s ear so he hires a GM who can discern real talent like Dombrowski did. Target all-stars again so the talent level can grow but this time actually target positions where talent is needed.
Where is that? SP1 and SP2. Also, 3B and move Devers to DH. That solves the majority of the problems. Then add a few complimentary players like a Left Handed reliever who can double as a back-up closer to Hendriks.
Then after those few things get completed. Do everything possible to salvage value from Yoshida, Story, Abreu, Hamilton, Wong, Whitlock and Mayer. We don’t need injury prone players dampening the future active talent level in years to come.
The majority of the players they are rumored to be targeting are SP1, SP2, or 3B candidates. Plus Soto, who is a generational talent that would make any team (much) better.
Next time I play poker can I have these guys at the table with me? Not exactly playing it cool are they?
“hey we have heaps of cash and we are determined to overspend d*mmit!”
I really hope it’s true. I would love for them to land 2 starters, spend the $60 mil per year and land 2 of the 3 top guys; why not? Go for it I reckon as the last couple of years have been just rubbish.
Needless to say, we all have reason to be sceptical…..
“…the Sox were one of the top six spenders in each year from 2000 to 2020,..but they have dropped themselves down to middle of the pack lately, including being 12th in each of the past two seasons”.
What’s with the weird 2 year hole in that data citation? In 2021 and 2022 the Red Sox were either 5th or 6th in both payroll and luxury tax spending…the actual high-spending window is 2001-2019, with a quick reset in 2020 followed by two more big spending years in 2021 and 2022.
In other words, this claim of “lately” is a lie. In reality, Boston did what even top spenders will occasionally do and targeted a tax penalty reset here and there, first in 2020 and then in 2023, when the team wasn’t winning anything. Nothing wrong with that. What then appears to have happened is that the franchise considered a number of potential signings last offseason, but prices a year ago were crazy (including the demands of guys who didn’t get what they wanted and signed late one-year deals) and Boston couldn’t convince the limited number of worthwhile signings to choose them. You don’t think they would have happily paid Yamamoto? That just wasn’t in the cards. So, rather than *spend for the sake of spending* (which is what a lot of media people and fans seem to demand, and is a really dumb thing to push for) for the next Trevor Story bad contract, they held the cards back for a year knowing they could make in-season moves if justified (they never quite got justified).
A year ago, the MLB roster still lacked much of an identity and the minor league system still needed to show more growth. Now, the team has presented more keepers and identity, plus the system looks primed to offer reinforcements via promotion and/or trade. Even if the signings aren’t ideal, there is no excuse if they don’t spend this time around, and if they do that would further prove that the blips down in spending were just that – temporary tax resets on the way to jumping right back into the spending pool.
P.S. What this article leaves unmentioned is that the supposedly “middle of the pack” 12th ranking in luxury tax spending is in reality close to the MAX a team can spend in a non-“push” year without foolishly edging over the tax limit (and thus logging a year of penalty that would grow with increased spending the following year). In other words, the Red Sox didn’t spend in the middle, but rather spent as much as made sense while waiting for a riper opportunity for a push. It would have been one thing for them to have a $200M or less tax payroll, meaning they easily could have spent quite a bit more while saving the tax penalties for when the time is right, but…they didn’t do that. There is a HUGE difference between reining in spending to just a bit below the tax and spending an ordinary amount on payroll.
Sam Kennedy is that you?
As I said, whether my view of the recent reduced spending is right or not, they are now in a position to have *no excuse* to not push. I expect them to push, and if they don’t I will be critical of them…which would be a weird thing for a Sam Kennedy to do.
P.S. Try to engage with people without resorting to logical fallacies…we’re all better off, in that case.
The ” weird 2 year hole in that data citation” can be found by clicking on the link in the article and seeing that in 2020 they were $180,147,694 ( 8)
The “2 year hole” he was referring to was 2021 and 2022 when they were 6th and 5th respectively in CBT payroll.
2020 they were $180,147,694 ( 8)
==========================
That was an aberration because Price opted out for the season. Thrown in another $15-16M, and they’d been about #5/6.
Joe – At least give Cherington his due for $40 Million of it!!!
I’m just telling posters what the numbers. I don’t care how they got there.
redsoxu571: Great posts! Please keep posting!
What’s with the weird 2 year hole in that data citation? In 2021 and 2022 the Red Sox were either 5th or 6th in both payroll
===========================
People have no idea what kind of audit red flag they put up when they skip periods. Any time people ignore certain periods, that becomes the first thing I check.
Like you said, it was only 2 years out of the past 20 that we haven’t been a top-tier spender.
Joe – NOT TRUE!!
Look at the financials. Money spend on Hanley, Manny and all the bad Cherington contracts is spending done a DECADE ago. The back half of 2010 to 2020 when Dombrowski ran the show had annual payrolls well below the CAP for his current roster. They were not spending current money at a rate comparable to the top teams, they were carrying over bad contracts to stay at the top of the list.
Too many have blamed the wrong people and distorted the true spending over time. It’s like counting the previous generation of congress for spending too much today. It’s not valid if you are actually trying to track spending as it occurs.
Boston under Cherington was a top tier spender. Spending fell when Dombrowski came aboard. Did the payroll drop? NO because it was saturated with Cherington’s spending.
If Bloom hadn’t foolishly blew his wad on Devers (expression for spending all your money) new spending in Boston since 2020 would be nearly non-existent. That’s what everyone is up at arms about.
Today there is no Mookie, Bogey, JD, Pedroia, Sale or Price money on the books. Yet the payroll is still high thanks to Devers, Story, Yoshida, Giolito and others. Bloom bumbled the entire payroll management. He bought dumpster divers over and over and re=spent money for all-stars on non all-stars. That’s a losing strategy as we have seen. Now we have Breslow who only spends money on gambling. Hardly any money spent but when spent it’s on a guy who hasn’t performed well in the last two years. Much like Andy Griffin wouldn’t give Barney any bullets, if I were Henry and gang I don’t think I would give Breslow anything more than small piles of money. He’s proven he prefers gambling rather than investing in blue chips like Dombrowski did. You don’t build championships with gambling, you build momentary good times and lots of bad times like we’ve seen in 2021 and 2024.
What does any of that have to do with me saying that “it was only 2 years out of the past 20 that we haven’t been a top-tier spender.”?
none of it but that generally doesn’t stop KD and the FPGs of the world from taking what you say and running with it in whatever direction suits them.
Joe – Spending a bunch of money 10 years ago and carrying it on the books as a mistake is not the same as carrying the highest costing active roster. I don’t understand why you don’t see that very significant difference?
We haven’t spent big money during the Dombrowski years we inherited it. It wasn’t part of the roster that won 3 divisions and ring. When the Cherington money rolled off, Bloom spent like a kid in a penny anti store. He rolled up in year costs that exceeded the $30Million higher CAP. He is exactly what people accused Dombrowski of because they ignored exactly the same thing you are ignoring. Money is spent on active payroll. That active payroll money is your spending for the year. The rest is inherited costs and don’t reflect that year’s spending.
I wasn’t replying to you or necessarily speaking out you unless you’re admitting that you’re KD17 and his various other alases on this site.
One of the biggest blunders of Bloom’s tenure was the failure to get a luxury tax “reset” in 2022. They weren’t in contention for anything, they didn’t retain their free agents that year, so they should have unloaded them in trades — even for minimal return — to get back under the luxury tax.
They also deserve mockery for the “full throttle” comment. An unforced error, that wasn’t in any way supported by their actions last winter.
Aside from that, I generally agree. I thought they could have been competitive last year, with a push, but they definitely SHOULD be competitive this year.
“[….if soto takes a little less to join us]”
I assume he mumbled that part at tend
“Our priority is 90 to 95 wins, and winning the American League East, and winning the division FOR MULTIPLE YEARS.”
These last three words personally give me pause. I read that as saying the Red Sox won’t sign a headliner big money starting pitcher who’s 32 years old and known as somewhat of an injury risk. I think they’ll make moves but it will be for younger guys.
Henry et al have spent too much time doing propaganda for me to trust them ever again. I’m going native and will only be getting mad at anything they do. Only until there is a title will there be acknowledgement of credit.
I can’t be the only fan who believes trading Jaren Duran now is the biggest no-brainer in the history of mankind.
The Red Sox have outfielders coming out of their ears and specifically they have a replacement you can plug into center RIGHT NOW.
Duran is a guy you need to sell high on today and try and acquire a nice young starting pitcher. I think it’s an absolute must decision.
Yes he’s a great player, yes he’s an All-Star, yes he’s improved his attention span out in the field lol, but because also he’ll be due for big money soon, I think you trade him now at the height of his value.
Who are you suggesting they trade with?
They might be able to bring back someone like logan Gilbert. That trade matches up well for both.
I think you gotta get more than Gilbert for Durran.
Blackpink that’s the next question. I don’t have an answer on the top of my head but there’s plenty of teams that could use an All-Star center fielder.
With your comment are you suggesting it would be difficult to find a taker who will give up what the Red Sox need?
No i just wanted to know exactly what you had in mind
That’s like saying they should trade Mookie Betts, without price being a problem. Duran is what got us a ton of wins. I wouldn’t touch him. Trade the young unproven guys instead.
Betts was about as safe a long-term bet as it gets. Heck, I’d like to see Boston sign Soto despite a LHH OF being their last need precisely because he would be one of those too. That makes them a different class of roster asset, IMO.
Duran has been excellent the past two seasons, but it would not shock to see that level of performance not hold up for long. If Boston agrees, AND if Duran could be leveraged the right way, good arguments can be made to move him. I’m not personally leaning that way, but it’s a reasonable consideration
I suppose, but it’d have to be a great return
I don’t think anyone is suggesting to give Duran away. Just to maximize the return the sox could get for a player that might be at his peak.
I’m on board with selling high on Duran as well
I am not against trading Duran, but if I’m doing that it’s to make room for Roman Anthony. I’d prefer to do that at the trading deadline because I want Anthony to get some more at-bats in AAA. He’s only had 1100 PA’s as a pro. I’m also not against trading Anthony for pitching and keeping Duran. I think you dangle Roman Anthony in front of the White Sox you can get Crochet. Anthony and 2 low level prospects should work….I am beginning to think though it’s one or the other, Anthony looks too damn good to keep down.
1-I thinking trading Duran looks really bad for the kids coming up. We have the money to buy pitching.
2-I doubt anyone is trading for Duran like he is going to continue to be an 8.7 bWAR player.
Joe- I’d agree with ya if we didn’t have Roman Anthony. Roman Anthony had superstar splits in AAA. Yes, it was just 13 games which is why ideally I’m waiting until the trade deadline to move Duran. I want to see if Roman continues with an OPS of .930 in Worcester. However, if ya get an offer ya can’t refuse for either Duran or Anthony I think you take it.
Joe: I disagree that trading Duran looks bad for the “young kids” if anything it shows a willingness to open up opportunities and playing time for said players.
It looks bad if the young kids don’t produce. I’m not against trading Duran, but I think it’s a pretty bad idea if we are trying to compete right now.
again not necessarily. It depends on how the rest of the offseason goes.
Agreed, Joe, I have a lot more confidence in Duran than the projection systems seem to have. He was their best player last year, and while it was a level above his prior performance it wasn’t a clear fluke. I expect him to continue to be an excellent player for a few more years — and thus it would be very difficult to improve the team by trading him away.
Maybe Anthony is as good some day, but it likely won’t be this year or next year.
With the amount of speed Duran has, it’s not a fluke. Speed players are in a whole separate tier just because they can run and steal bags. Add power to that and you know it’s a good player. I think it’d be foolish to trade Duran unless the package is that good. If he only had a year left, I’m for it, but losing him will hurt the team in the short run.
Gary – Yeah you are the only fan. Haha!
I don’t think you realize how valuable Duran is with his speed and defense. He can go into a hitting slump and still have a huge impact with those two skills. He is the first true leadoff hitter they’ve had since Ellsbury.
I know he’s a bit risky because of his issues, but I still say keep him for at least 3 more years.
For once, I agree with you on keeping Duran
They won’t win a championship unless they get 95+ wins. Getting to 90 only gets them in the playoffs. It’s hard to go from 81 to 95+ in one year but it won’t surprise me if they win it all next year. Because they are the best organization in baseball. And they can bury everyone if they want to, they have proven that over the past 24 seasons. Don’t let the last place finishes fool you, when they’re ready to win, they will.
Number of regular seasons doesn’t mean anything.
They just need to make the playoffs and then anything is possible.
Just grabbing some at random.
2023 Ranges – 90 wins
2021 Braves – 88 wins
2019 Nationals – 93 wins
2014 Giants – 88 wins
95+ wins doesn’t mean anything.
It does for the Red Sox.
More than 95, 4 championships. Less than 95, 0 championships.
hayzee – I agree with half of your post.
You are totally correct in stating the Red Sox didn’t want to win from 2019-2024.
But 95 wins is not necessary at all to win a championship, not with today’s watered down postseason format.
Last year the Rangers won it all with just 90 wins.
In 2021 the WS champs won just 88 games.
In 2019 the Nats had just 93 wins.
Okay this is boring …
Put up, or shut up.
Yeah them and the Sacramento Athletics both.
They should trade for Chris Sale, what do you think the Braves will ask for in return, more than Grissom ?
Grissom would be fine. Just the Grissom red sox fans thought he was not the actual Grissom.
I honestly can’t see this happening and won’t until it happens. Unless they’re willing to spend until they get outbid by every team who wants to pay more.
“Cant see this happening”
They’ve spent in FA for something like 20 years. They didnt for a few years while they rebuilt. Now they have the best or one of the best farm systems in the league and plenty of salary space. Why wouldnt they supplement that inbound accumulation of youthful talent with veterans?
Have you heard their press conferences and the whole “full throttle” before this year? They’ve done a complete 180 in how they operate
I don’t trust anything Sam Kennedy says
What does “full throttle” mean? Can you translate that to a dollar amount?
It shouldnt have been said last year, I completely agree. But, it was probably said in the spur of the moment. And to continually bringing up that one soundbite a year later is a little ridiculous.
I just have to see it to believe it. The last three years the Sox (in my opinion) have not had a clear direction. They went halfway with stocking up young talent and halfway with trying to compete. If we were really rebuilding, then Jansen, O’Neill, and several others would’ve been traded at the deadline. We wouldn’t have needed to even sign O’Neill… Story, Devers, and Yoshida were “big acquisitions” that had nothing to do with rebuilding but competing now. Sox were trying to compete with a small payroll, despite people claiming “rebuild,” so why will it be different now? I can’t imagine until i see it.
The last 3 years have 100% been a clear direction.
Build a youthful minor leagues, while freeing salary space to complement that youth movement when the time comes. Its just taking a little longer than expected.
Inconsistency comes from fans with ridiculous demands like ‘compete every single year’. So the team frequently makes moves they shouldnt to appease fans. They need ticket sales and views on NESN to further their product. So, sometimes they have to make decisions that are inconsistent with their main objective.
“Build a youthful minor leagues”
Lol. I meant ‘talent heavy’
I Believe It Means All Gas Pedal, No Brakes
a NY Jet crash landing.
But, it was probably said in the spur of the moment.
===========================
I agree 100%. The probably with the RS management are that these guys want to be in the headlines, but none of them should ever be interviewed. Guys like Theo can talk without saying anything. Guys like DD never become emotional.
Some of these other guys are like deer in the headlights. They get out there without a clue of what to say.
And if it’s spur of the moment and they don’t mean it, can we really trust them?
Their direction was to start over and build from bottom up. Actually ingenious. Many clubs get stuck inbetween fir years
So Trevor Story and Yoshida were building from the ground up? You realize we might be stuck with those guys?
“And if it’s spur of the moment and they don’t mean it, can we really trust them?”
At the end of the day theyre businessmen selling a product, not your friends. Just like I dont believe a sign that says “The Best Coffee in the World”, I take what salesmen say with a grain of salt. Id never take it so personal.
Instead, I look at the actions. When the team trades their best pitcher for a prospect and doesnt spend up to the cap, I know their intentions well enough, that I dont put much stock in a simple comment said off the cuff.
Ceddanne Rafaela wasn’t mentioned in this article, and he has an 8 year contract with the Red Sox. He scuffle at the end of his first year but will develop very well in the future years of his contract while playing CF/SS. He wore down in year one but will improve!
I hate Rafaela at the plate, but I do think the trajectory is improvement. It would be hard to be less disciplined and give away at bats at his pace without figuring at least a couple of things out about how he gets himself out.
william-2 = The kid was 23 as a rookie who isn’t liked by the manager. He got the Mookie/Duran treatment and we’ll see if he has a Mookie or Duran like resilience to fight back and over come all the challenges he faces. Players that get screwed by the manager often try to over compensate to prove their worth and he certainly did that with his desire to hit at all costs. If there is a clubhouse leader, which doesn’t exist today because their main star is a selfish 3B who only cares about himself, the leader (like JD, Bogey and Mookie in previous years) needs to come from Duran as the best player on the team. Hopefully, he’ll take Rafaela under his belt and talk to him about how he overcame Cora. If not, Rafaela will be traded to make room for one dimensional players like Abreu.(A platoon hitter afraid to go back on balls over his head).
The development of players is hugely impacted by people like the manager. Enter an idiot manager and the wrong players end up being coddled while the talented ones get crapped on. Devers should have been off 3B when he proved his lack of defense was not a fluke in 2017. Instead, he’s going to set an all time record for errors by a 3B. Abreu should have batted down in the order while Rafaela should have batted second thanks to his great speed. That would have been a sign of support by Cora but instead he gave in to Abreu who can’t hit lefties. Duran should have been shown the respect he deserved and played center field daily while Rafaela who isn’t afraid of going back on balls, is faster, has better hand eye coordination in catching the ball and a comparable arm to Abreu should have played right field daily. That left Abreu to share DH or LF with O’Neill and Yoshida.
When the fundamentals of the organization are broken you can expect a .500 or worse result like we’ve seen every year Cora has been around except 2018 when the team won despite Cora.
Saga your analysis of Abreu is awful. Defensively he’s utterly fearless and an outstanding defender. He has gone over the fence in right on numerous occasions he’s most certainly not afraid to go back on the ball. Defensively Abreu was the best right fielder in the league the eye test said it, the metrics said it, the award he got said it.
I believe Rafaela will be a really good centerfielder in the league as long as he hits and the jury is still out on that one. He chased pitches off the plate higher than anyone in baseball. He simply cannot do that and survive. He’s got really good hand eye but he’s no Arraez. Pitchers are just not going to throw strikes to this guy until he stops chasing. In the month of September in 69 plate appearances he walked zero times. He gets himself out by chasing off the plate.
I think Rafaela will make the necessary changes he will always have some chase in his profile that’s a given and he seems to have a knack for the dramatic. He was awful in September to be fair so was Abreu offensively. I will say this if Rafaela can’t stop chasing he’s going to be a very expensive utility player. Rafaela had no business hitting up in the lineup but reality is neither did Abreu and in a perfect world they would have hit 8 and 9 that’s where they belonged last year.
Bruin1012 – Suggesting an eye test BY YOU is conclusive proof is silly. It’s your bias because you like him. That’s fine but it’s not fact. The flinching on balls over his head was nicely documented by you and I thank you for that footage because I saw it many times but didn’t have specific plays in mind. Again thank you.
He will always have some chase in his profile? Biased. That’s not even close to true. You don’t know what Rafaela is going to do in the future. You spin doctor stuff to suit your biased opinions.
Who are you to suggest where he has business hitting in a line-up? You aren’t even an expert in the game but you try to pretend you are. Rafaela is a prototypical 2 hitter behind a speedster and in front of Devers. If you actually knew the game you would know that. I played with many players like him. He doesn’t belong in the 9 hole just because he’s fast.
Let me quiz you on simple baseball batting order logic since you position yourself as such an expert.
If a player that is fast and bats first, specializes in doubles and is followed by another fast player behind him how is the second hitter aided in his at bats? The answer is the lead off hitter steals bases and that leads to more fastballs which are not pitches a person with an oversized strike zone because they are 23 years old has to worry about. In the 9th spot, does the 8th hitter provide anything for the 9th hitter with respect to keeping pitchers from not having to throw strikes to the ninth hitter? NOPE. So does the young player who has tremendous speed have more hitting opportunities in the 9th or 2nd hole? Does the 3rd hitter like Devers have more opportunities if a speedster is in front of him like Duran is when Devers mistakenly bats 2nd? Yes. Why? Same reason as before. The speed is disruptive and leads to more fastballs. If the pitcher chooses not to go fastball to get Devers the speedster swipes a base.
This is all stuff you should know when you speak with the condescension to others as if you are Moses spouting truths to everyone. The fact is Moses, you knowledge is very limited and your vision is very skewed because you report what you want to see not what actually happens when you watch baseball. That’s the only way there can be such a huge discrepancy between the stats and what you say you see in a player.
You want to open with my analysis is awful because it doesn’t align with yours? Go for it, but expect responses like this. The idea that you have a greater grasp of the game is comical. If you plan on making comments that are incorrect, I am going to continue to correct them. The other readers deserve to get a clear understanding of what is your biased opinion and fact. You can’t even watch a video that clearly shows Abreu with the YIPS and admit that he hesitated. That’s the level of your bias because you like him. I simply observe the YIPS and point them out as part of his game. I don’t predict they will be there in the future because you are the person who extrapolates your biased opinions into the future. I report facts. You are the one that suggests the facts are wrong because YOU see something different. Think of the arrogance that shows. Why not just let people form their opinions without you mandating them? You have no idea what Rafaela will do in the future but you are willing to bias people against him because are trying build credibility through bullying. Recognize your role in this website. You don’t provide the only viable opinion. You are just another arm chair baseball fan with opinions and those opinions don’t supersede facts in Baseball Reference or written by people that have far more experience than you.
So lets stop there because led with the first punch.
Abreu as I said from his AAA days is an outstanding defensive player to argue against it is silly. He won the gold glove in the hardest right field in baseball and unlike Jeter’s gold gloves he deserved it.
When you make silly comments like Abreu is afraid to go back on the ball something I never said and is comically wrong I’m going to correct you. The guy went after the ball as hard or harder than any outfielder in baseball he ran into walls with reckless regard. When you say something so wrong I just can’t help myself. Abreu is a lot of things he has swing and miss, he’s somewhat streaky, he has a huge hole up in the strike zone, but one thing he is not is afraid of anything out on that field. He’s a beast that plays with reckless abandon he’s willing to put his body on the line to make plays and that is who Abreu is.
KD you speak of biases but I’m just stating facts. Rafaela has always had a lot of chase in his profile and that’s a fact. He got away with it in the minors because, quite frankly, the pitchers on aren’t as good. This isn’t just my opinion it has been the concern by anyone who makes a living watching and writing about players. It’s also a fact that if you chase that much it’s just unlikely that you can ever become a decent hitter. There’s only one guy that I can think of that playing right now who chases a ton and still manages to square balls off the plate with consistency and that’s Luis Arraez. Rafaela does not have the bat wizardry of Arraez.
When you talk of biases it’s the mirror you need to look at. You are so biased against anything after DD you can’t see straight. You’re the most biased poster on this site it doesn’t allow you to see things clearly.
Bruin – We have seen Abreu’s sensational play in the outfield, and statistically this year he was rated the best outfielder in MLB with a 17 DRS. Very impressive for a rookie who has to play in Fenway’s right field.
Sag is just upset about the Vazquez trade because he really liked him, I can appreciate his loyalty to a player who was with the team a while. But Abreu shouldn’t be blamed for the trade, he is not the one who made it and Vaz would have been gone no matter what anyway.
Rafaela is another favorite of Sag, and he’s upset Abreu has taken so much attention away from him, and won the GG with Rafaela not even being nominated, and was 6th for ROY while Rafaela didn’t receive any votes. I can understand why he overrated Rafaela so much though, the Red Sox announcers really hyped him all season (per the team’s instructions) by saying he will be a GG candidate and ROY candidate. I like most of the Red Sox announcers, but I admit they sure can be John Sterling-ish with their ridiculous over-hyping of Sox players.
It shouldn’t be that way though, we can support certain players without hating on their teammates. We should all support every Red Sox player, because their success contributes to the team’s success …. and the team should always come first.
Good chance Abreu will be gone anyways, so it will probably be a moot point.
Yea FPG I like Rafaela always have I think they jumped the gun on his extension but I certainly hope it works out. I try to stay out of KD’s comments because I know how it ends but ripping on Abreu especially saying he’s afraid of you going back on the ball is ridiculous. I agree it will probably be a moot point someone else will benefit from his outstanding right field defense when he’s traded to make room for room for Anthony in right.
KD only likes players if they were acquired by DD.
Bruin – I’m still holding out hope for a longterm outfield of Duran, Abreu and Anthony. Let Rafaela play middle infield, and maybe OF when facing LHP.
Bruin1012 – Video doesn’t lie. You refusing to accept the facts is nothing I can control. The YIPS are the YIPS. It happens.
Between his bad routes to the ball, his side saddle approach to protect himself as he approaches the fence and his poor hand eye coordination reaching up for a baseball over his head, Abreu is a league average defender.
When you have to count a weak defensive measurement to try to prove your point, you seem desperate. Just let it go, he got a GG he didn’t deserve. Good for him. It’s happened many time over the years and it will happen in the future. Your video clips tell the story and all I can do is thank you for proving my point.
Blah blah blah.
Fever knows you well because it’s obvious that you’re KD17/troll free etc. Everyone who comments on the red sox even passively figured that out.
The funny thing in KD’s mind and world he thinks he wins the argument he doesn’t realize everyone knows his bias. He can be read like a book. God forbid Anthony struggles for a month or two upon call up he’ll lambaste him because he’s not a DD guy. Your agenda is old and the crap you quote is old join the 21st century.
Sag – You’re welcome and no worries. I don’t pick sides, I just try to unite everyone especially this time of year when I’m in the holiday spirit. The Sox aren’t losing games and Cora isn’t managing or talking so it’s a pleasant time of year!
” I watch the YIPS boy reach up and almost get hit in the head on a fly ball to the fence and wrote him off as a below average defender.”
At least you’re honest on that… You wrote him off on the basis of one bad play. He had multiple miscues early in the season (Fenway’s RF is tough to play) but really settled in. Nobody is perfect – but Abreu is a very good defender at a position that mostly has lumbering clowns like Soto.
Bruin1012 – That was beneath you. You should be embarrassed that you stooped so low. I guess the facts being pounded on your BS is really bothering you. Gosh, whose going to believe a guy who fabricates things and brow beats others to believe him when there is guy proving him wrong time after time.
You’ve behaved like this for years. I told my friends in the league about you and your fabrications. It makes for a fun time dissecting them before I respond. For a non baseball guy to preach such horse manure it is amazing to the people I hang with. Tell us some more about your OBSERVATIONS and how they are always accurate even when there are no numbers to support the claims!!! hahahahaha
I’ll give you, it’s entertaining. The video one may have been your best. Watching a guy with the YIPS who then fields balls side saddle to protect himself from the wall and you don’t think that is a guy afraid of contact. If you had played you would realize that some guys are fearless and some aren’t. Abreu isn’t. You think that’s an insult but it’s simply his choice to preserve his health. Harper ran into the walls without hesitation as a young player, he didn’t lay up like Abreu. He might have played more games had he laid up.
7 errors in very few Total Chances and you are ok with the GG going to the guy thanks to some completely wrong metrics. It says a lot about your understanding of the game and your bias towards players you like.
FYI… if Anthony struggles or Teel or Campbell or just about any farm hand, they are not associated with Dombrowski so I guess I’ll have to lambaste them (good word). The thing is, if you didn’t try to distract people with your suggestions of bias that don’t exist you’d have to deal with why your observations don’t match the ACTUAL DATA. So point out I hate Cora because I do. He dishonored all professional baseball players with his two cheating schemes. Point out I support the actions of a HOF GM that gave us our only 3 consecutive division titles with a ring. I guess i should be embarrassed for supporting the greatest GM in Boston history, or at least the most successful as a percentage of time spent in Boston.
See, what you and so many of the other childish contributors don’t get is that comments like that are meaningless to me. I don’t have to justify my opinions on Cora or Dombrowski any more than you have to justify liking Abreu. I stop at supporting them unlike you. You extrapolate things into the future which is unknown and that has always been my issue with your fabricated comments. Say you love Abreu and I am fine. Tell people that he’s going to be something in the future and I draw the line by explaining we don’t know the future. That upsets you but it’s only fair because nobody knows the future yet you object to pointing that out. That way you can’t wax on about the greatness of players who you SEE and project to be great when their stats suggest the opposite or something far less grand.
My comments are not to limit what you say, just to validate that there is fact embedded in the comments. If that upsets you, too bad. The media lies to the public all the time but people can’t control the media by stating facts in response but we can do that to contributors on a blog.
TFF17 – Remember how Duran struggled at first in Fenway, remember how Verdugo struggled in Fenway and remember how Abreu struggled in Fenway. Those three events got very different reactions by the group of contributors on this site. Duran was roasted and is still being undervalued. Verdugo was defended by his fans and roasted by his detractors. Abreu is teflon. He’s protected by being Latin and playing under Cora. Many might call that racism. I just call it unfair that people are afraid to speak the truth about Abreu much like Devers. You are right, he got better as his time in right field grew but his error total should have disqualified him from any chance at the GG.
Your level headed approach to why I write what I write is appreciated. I observed him almost getting hit in the head, I observed the YIPS and then got video proof and I saw his side saddle stance protecting him from the wall to minimize contact and then watched the video. I didn’t make these things up, I observed them. Why people get offended has entirely to do with who they are fans of. I’m ok with people being fans but denying reality is an issue for me.
You can look at the numbers I presented comparing Abreu and Rafaela and I will never understand why a baseball fan can’t see which player was more productive based on the numbers, which player played better outfield defense than the other and which one got screwed over by the manager. Remember, Abreu came from Houston and so did Cora. That should NOT allow one player to bat 67% of the time in the 2-6 spots and the other to bat 80% in the last two spots while their averages weren’t that different and the one hitter completely outperformed the other in producing runs and contributing to wins.
I am older than many of you and possibly by a lot of years so I know a game of baseball that revolved around productivity and heart. Not many guys wouldn’t turn and run into the fence in my day because it was maximum effort like Bird diving on the floor for loose balls. Today, those are the exceptions and pointing out that Abreu is not one of the exceptions and missed a huge percentage of his total chances compared to his two year younger team mate is worth mentioning. Bias is everywhere in sports so you need to pull the facts to make the comparisons. That didn’t happen with regard to the GG for Abreu. I feel for the guy that got the short end of the stick. I’m happy for Abreu even if he didn’t deserve it because he can put it on his resume.
Rafaela is clearly a better defender than Abreu. So is Duran. But Abreu is a heck of a lot better defensively than guys like Soto.
We are blessed with many strong defensive outfielders right now – so why the heck did Bloom sign Duvall to play CF?!? That one was ugly.
Rafaela doesn’t have the plate discipline to be a table setter. He is best batting low in the lineup, where his aggressive swings produce runs. I believe he would have had a very hard time offensively last year if he had batted in the top four.
That said, if he can learn to swing at the right pitches, he’ll bat anywhere you like. He already is the complete package defensively.
I never claimed to know you outside of this website nor have I resorted to insults or name calling. . I do know for a fact that you’re not a hall of fame or 10 people but your writing style and gripes haven’t changed. tHe only thing that has is your usernames.
TFF17 – I have a different theory on Rafaela. When Duran got brought up and shoved in the 9th hole he struggled because he knew he was better than that. I believe Rafaela has the same issue. 80% of your at bats out of the 8 and 9 hole means absolutely no protection for him. He’s at the mercy of the pitcher that doesn’t have to throw strikes to the kid that wants to be a part of the production of the team. He’s an alpha male that wants to produce and he’s the sandlot equivalent of the 2B or RF from a lack of respect perspective. He hit well at the top of the order in the minors so he expects he can do the same in the majors..
The more he got shoved in the 9th hole the more desperate he got to show how good he is. That creates the big strike zone. He’s also a bad ball hitter like Vlad Guerrero senior was so that success keeps him from reigning in his swing. His batting average in the minors shows he could play with an aggressive bat and be successful. He bats 2nd like he should have and I expect him to hit 40 or 50 points higher and produce the second most runs and rbis on the team behind Duran. They gave that role to Abreu and he came up empty. His production was terrible considering where he hit in the order. 33% of his at bats in the 2 hole and 66% in the 2-6 hole. That’s such a huge difference from where Cora stuck Rafaela you would expect lower productivity but instead Rafaela relatively shine considering the situation being stack against him.
Abreu is a prototypical post 5 slot hitter. He struggles with lefties and he swings for the fences all the time. His speed is league average so he doesn’t help other batters with his presence like Rafaela does with his speed. Duran and Rafaela in front of Devers would be a highly productive top of the order. Mookie, Benny and JD was a monster top of the order in 2018 creating a huge volume of runs not just in the top of the first but also late in the game, That type of productive could again exist if we had a manager who understood the game and batting orders. Breslow really needs to hire guys to take on all of Cora’s responsibilities except being a bench coach which seems to be good at. That way the line-up gets maximized, the handling of the pitching staff gets handled and the sitting of players isn’t written on a calendar. Substitution of star players is normally an art not a calendar event.
I’m excited to see how all the young guys coming up this year handle adversity. Rafaela stayed productive but was clearly frustrated by not being in the mainstream of the production. He should speak with Duran about how he handled the same slap in the face Cora gave him. Campbell flew through many levels and won player of the year and barely was recognized by the organization so I don’t expect the red carpet to be rolled out for him. Anthony however is a favorite son so when he comes up I expect him to get the Abreu treatment not the Duran and Rafaela treatment which Campbell will probably get. If Mayer comes up he’ll get the Devers treatment which is a couple steps up from the Abreu treatment. Score keepers will be looking the other way on his many errors and count errors by the opponent as hits.
I don’t think there is much fans can do to change the politics of a biased front office and manager. Lets just hope nobody on the challenging path gets discouraged and hopefully the ones that get the superior treatment actually deliver productivity unlike Abreu. That would made for an excellent year and if the owners don’t add all-star talent with their spending at least the team will be fun to watch.
TF – I’m staying out of all this because seems like people are saying to ignore all three methods of evaluation – eye test, managers & coaches, and analytics. There’s no point in disagreeing with anyone who ignores the solid play of Abreu who was clearly better in the OF than Rafaela, ignores the fact Abreu won the GG while Rafaela didn’t even get nominated, and ignores the fact Abreu was statistically equally as good in the OF as Duran and far better than Rafaela.
To be clear I’m not directing that at you, as I know you obviously believe Rafaela is a “better defender than Abreu” based solely on Rafaela’s additional ability to play shortstop. I have always maintained Rafaela’s versatility is his greatest asset.
But to everyone else, THIS YEAR Abreu was a better outfielder than Rafaela. That is not debatable, not when all three rating systems come to the same conclusion.
acell10 – My user name has always been Sagacity since it’s tied to my email. The other names are various members of the collective that discusses baseball on a daily basis. The opinions are very similar because we talk about the issues constantly so Cora is hated by the entire group. The old school thinking comes from being old school players and the disdain for Bloom and what he did to the Red Sox is as boldly supported as the hate for Cora. I may actually be the most tolerant in the group when it comes to Bloom. The loss of Mookie is a monumental mistake and the lack of understanding of what Dombrowski was trying to do is universal in the group since one of the members is indirectly linked to him. As each of the other members got banned by people connected to the website another signed up whether they wanted to or not. When you have played, coached and talked baseball your whole life nothing is nicer than having a group of close knit friends that come from the same era and have the same fundamental beliefs in how the game should be played.
So call me whatever makes you happy. It really doesn’t matter. The think tank laughs at much of the absurdity that goes on during my interactions with guys like Bruin1012 and others. We take pleasure in pointing out the inaccuracies of the modern metrics, the voting of the HOF committees and the history of steroids. The fact that nobody recognizes the massive use of steroids in the 1970s because nobody was hitting home runs is comical. McGwire was prototypical of the use of steroids in the 70s and 80s but until Selig changed the ball nobody cared because the rise in HRs by guys like Canseco and McGwire was too inconsistent. That was because there was no correlation between the two until the ball physically changed because of the 1994 strike. Steroids got full credit in a brilliant move by Selig and then he threw that generation under the bus despite the two events not being correlated in the numbers.
We have fun talking about this stuff and raising awareness but so many of the participants on this stie just don’t get the reality of what has happened in the past in baseball. We lived through it.
I dunno, I guess I have more faith in these guys than you do? I don’t believe they are mentally so weak that batting eighth or ninth is going to shatter them, and the character of the AB aren’t all that different.
Duran and Rafaela have talent, for sure, but not all talented rookies perform the instant they set foot in the majors. It isn’t unusual for a player to need two or three tries to get it right. For that matter it isn’t unusual for prospects to fail entirely. I don’t see the need to speculate on the reasons that they weren’t immediately successful.
I agree that Abreu is a classic #6 hitter. Between the inconsistent contact and the platoon issues, you don’t want him in the top five. Of course last year the only players you DID want in the top five were Duran and Devers. They need more offensive contributors (including some who are RHH) to be competitive. Hopefully they have that next year.
You make a big deal about the RBI totals, but that is only one piece of production. There are quality AB that advance a runner into scoring position but don’t result in a R or RBI. There are also broad differences in opportunity, and the top spots in the batting order don’t always see the most.
Abreu had a better BA with RISP than anybody but Yoshida. O’Neill and Devers were shockingly poor with RISP last year, but the rest of the team did more or less as you would expect. Rafaela did a bit better than average, perhaps because pitchers have to throw strikes in that situation.
I’m rooting for Rafaela to succeed as much as anybody, but I don’t see that success as being in conflict with Abreu. They are on the same team, and the team is best if all are productive.
No, I believe that Rafaela is the better defender in the outfield. It would show in the numbers if he hadn’t spent half the season learning to play shortstop (at the major league level!).
FRV shows them roughly even once you prorate for innings. DRS is relative to positional average, so you need to add on an additional positional factor. (FRV is directly comparable across positions.)
Give Rafaela a full season in CF and his numbers will easily top Abreu and Duran. He was still a bit raw last year (as all rookies), but he has the talent to be brilliant and he should be playing at that level this year.
Nothing against Abreu and Duran, both great defenders, but Rafaela is the best of the three. Anthony has a lot to live up to.
In the days after a name change, it is possible to figure out the prior handle (or the handle that was previously tied to that email). Not that I’ve bothered, as nothing online is real anyways. Within a couple years, these boards will be 90% one AI talking to another AI.
TF – If the handle is muted, it’s new handle shows in its place on your Muted List.
And one of the reasons I start every post with the name to which I’m replying? It proves what their handle was before it changed, because the handle on all prior posts would change as well.
Note that the Trollfree handle still exists, so is clearly tied to a different email than Sagacity.
TF – My understanding is he changes handles to get around those who have muted him, which means new accounts must be set up.
Doesn’t matter to me, I’ve got no issue with him. I appreciate how he supports his views, even though we obviously disagree on some subjects.
If there were anybody I agreed with on ALL subjects, people would know that to be a clone account.
Fever Pitch Guy – What a silly comment. Because you say so it’s not debatable? Who made you god? Everything is debatable especially when bogus estimates are used to define a winner of an award.
Abreu has the YIPS and it’s on video. It’s irrefutable.
If you like Abreu great. To say he played better this season is ignorant. Each player excelled at aspects of the game but over all Rafaela’s productivity provided more value to winning and that’s what the game is about.
The website is saying the various user ids are linked? How would they do that? Think about how computers work. How would two emails be linked if they are completely different?
There is a way but you aren’t smart enough to know so I’ll tell you. It’s by IP ADDRESS. So that means the ids all come from the same physical computer. How is that possible for people in many locations? Again, it’s simple. Remote takeover. That means an infinite group can access the central computer and log onto the website using the most recent email address provided by one of the individuals in the group. It’s perfectly legal and is a safeguard against guys like you who think they are smart and want to decipher who is on the website (which is a violation of the rules of the website)
Why any of this matters is beyond me but there you go. Everything you said like always has been assumptions that are wrong on your part. But hey, kudos for being so subversive in your approach to being part of the site. Is it any wonder we put in so many layers of security to stay anonymous?
Sag – It’s not debatable because all three methodologies arrive at the same conclusion – Abreu was a better OF than Rafaela this season. As TF said maybe splitting time at shortstop contributed to his defensive struggles in the OF. More likely it was his immaturity, such as wearing several large necklaces that ended up injuring his face. Lol!!
Bottom line, unanimous is unanimous. If you’re gonna claim all three methodologies should be ignored, then what’s the point of providing ANY type of evidence to support a conclusion?
As a hypothetical Mariano was a unanimous first ballot HOF’er and has the numbers and eye test to support it. You think he isn’t a HOF’er and therefore it’s debatable? Umm…no, it’s not.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion and I respect yours, but I think you’re misinterpreting the definition of debatable.
william – Hate is a strong word. Haha! Rafaela at least is clutch at times, a lot more clutch than O’Neill.
I think management and the coaching staff will play a big part in whether or not Rafaela improves. They need to basically force him to take more pitches and not swing as hard. I doubt they will, as they obviously encouraged his approach by allowing him to continue it all season.
Cora is way too soft, way too much of a player’s manager. He lets the players do what they want, not a good way to manage.
Nah, hate is on the button for me. He is one of the ugliest at bats in the league. Hard to watch sometimes. No discipline rarely produces a fundamental at bat.
Even my wife noticed it many times last season that he looks like he gives away at bats and doesn’t have a grasp on what his job is at the plate with men on. That is telling, because she doesn’t give a crap and rarely mentions anything at all. She noticed Rafaela right away.
I think there is enough athleticism there to be an MLB mainstay. I think he is a great talent, and we are seeing the floor atm and not the ceiling. I just hope he keeps a job long enough to see him flip the switch for our team instead of another. I posted a few times during the season that I see him as a utility outfielder and spot starter. That is mostly due to his great defense, and terrible plate discipline. If he can figure it out, you have the makings of a great player.
William – “If he can figure it out, you have the makings of a great player.”
Seems like just yesterday we were saying that about JBJ.
YES!!! Perfect example. I honestly think JBJ had far superior hit tools coming into the league, but right now very similar. My hope is that Rafaela can figure out the strike zone and begin to realize that there are hittable pitches, unhittable pitches, and pitches the pitcher wants you to hit.
william – If Rafaela can replicate what JBJ did during his first 8 years in MLB, I’d definitely take it (.732 OPS, Gold Glove, AS, ALCS MVP, 18.4 WAR)
I really think Rafaela needs to stop swinging for the fences all the time. He can be an offensive threat similar to Duran if he makes more contact, puts the ball in play more often, gets on base more often, and smartens up on the basepaths.
Tiny dudes that swing for the fences have to mash to get away with it. LASER SHOW. Guys that swing at everything as hard as they can and rarely hit it have to be rebuilt from swing to approach.
Rafaela is so good defensively in centerfield and has so much defensive utility he will be a long time big leaguer but I agree he has to stop chasing. He chases pitches a foot off the plate it’s not just the swing and miss he makes such poor contact on those pitches he chases. It’s not like every pitcher in baseball doesn’t know now that he chases the fact is he chased at a higher percentage than any hitter in the big leagues. If I’m a pitcher I wouldn’t throw him a strike until he shows he can lay off pitches. It’s up to him it’s the difference between him being an expensive utility player or a bargain gold glove center fielder but he has to stop chasing.
Bruin – Maybe he’s trying to imitate Devers, who is fantastic at hitting balls out of the strike zone. Geez I vividly recall one pitch at Fenway in which Devers reached across the plate and swung with one hand ….. the ball landed over the Monster!
Yea FPG Rafaela makes Devers look like a very disciplined hitter. lol. Devers is amazing but you know what especially early in the year he was showing really solid plate discipline had a career high in walk rate.
FACTS
Rafaela – 2025 will be 24
Abreu – 2025 will be 26
Rafaela – at 24 will have 180 games under his belt with BOS
Abreu – at 26 will have 160 games under his belt with BOS
Rafaela while batting (AVG/OPS/PA/SB/%ofPAs)
1st – BA .231 OPS .658 84 plate appearances 2 SBs 12.7%
2nd – BA .500 OPS 1.000 2 plate appearances 0 SBs <1%
3rd – BA 1.000 OPS 2.000 1 plate appearance 0 SBs <1%
4th – BA .000 OPS .000 2 plate appearances 1 SB <1%
5th – BA .500 OPS 1.000 2 plate appearances 0 SBs <1%
6th – BA .235 OPS .529 17 plate appearances 0 SBs 2.6%
7th – BA .273 OPS .815 25 plate appearances 0 SBs 3.8%
8th – BA .207 OPS .544 101 plate appearances 4 SBs 15.3%
9th – BA .253 OPS 687 426 plate appearances 15 SBs 64.5%
80% in two worst batting slots in the order
ONLY 17 plate appearances in slots 2 – 5 but produced
70 Runs – 4th most on the team
75 RBIs – 3rd most on the team
15 HRs – 4th most on the team
19 SBs – 3rd most on the team
Clutch Performance Stats
2 out RISP 86 PAs .235 AVG .612 OPS
Late & Close 110 PAs .311 AVG .892 OPS
Abreu while batting (AVG/OPS/PA/SB/% of PAs)
1st – BA .250 OPS .669 17 plate appearances 1 SBs 3.2%
2nd – BA .264 OPS .849 177 plate appearances 3 SBs 33.3%
3rd – BA .192 OPS .550 52 plate appearance 0 SBs <9.8%
4th – BA ..294 OPS .844 59 plate appearances 1 SB <11.1%
5th – BA .280 OPS .717 56 plate appearances 3 SBs <10.5%
6th – BA .282 OPS .890 79 plate appearances 1 SBs 14.8%
7th – BA .290 OPS .882 71 plate appearances 0 SBs 13.3%
8th – BA .133 OPS .388 16 plate appearances 1 SBs 3%
9th – BA .250 OPS 650 5 plate appearances 0 SBs <1%
33.3% batting in the 2nd slot in the order
64.7% of the time in the 2 – 5 slots in the order
(344 plate appearances vs Rafaela's 17)
Resulting performance stats
59 Runs – 5th most on the team 11 behind Rafaela
58 RBIs – 5th most on the team 17 behind Rafaela
15 HRs – 4th most on the team tied with Rafaela
8 SBs – 5th most on the team 11 behind Rafaela
327 more plate appearances by Abreu in the heart of the order resulted in Rafaela beating him in Runs, RBIs and SBs and tying the power hitting Abreu in HRs by the speedster.
Clutch Performance Stats
2 out RISP 49 PAs .304 AVG .847 OPS
Late & Close 54 PAs .143 AVG 447 OPS
You can talk all you want about the strike outs or lack of self control on his swing but in the end he completely outplayed the guy who got over 300 more plate appearances in the heart of the order and didn't produce.
Metrics point fans away from the truth toward meaningless estimates as to the impact of certain actions in baseball. A team plays to win and needs players to produce. Those players are the players that should bat in the heart of the order, not the guys most liked by the manager. That hasn't happened since Farrell left after 2017.
Rafaela had 3 errors in the OF in 187 total chances
Abreu had 7 errors in the OF in 238 total chances and won a gold glove completely discrediting the process for evaluating performance. His fielding percentage was .971 or 17% below league average. I am happy for him but he clearly had no business being in the competition for GG. Somebody obviously bought it for him. hahaha Yep those awards are fair!!!! hahahaha
“Errors” and “Fielding Percentage” are relatively the same metrics. Spelled out more clearly they are ‘Errors’ and ‘Errors Per Attempts’. Very redundant stats. Gold Glove isnt judged on just a player’s worst 7 plays out of 238. Its be judged on ALL THE PLAYS.
3 Finalists for RF Gold Glove:
W Abreu:
OOA: 7, RTot: 16, Assists: 9, Range Factor: 2.16, UZR: 7.4
Joe Adell:
Outs Above Avg: 1, RTot: 8, Assists: 3, RF: 2.08, UZR: 1.0
Juan Soto:
Outs Above Avg: -5, RTot: 3, Assists 9, RF: 2.10, UZR: -5.1
Abreu beats the other two contenders in EVERY stat, except for errors. 3 more errors than Adell and 5 more errors than Soto does not negate everything else.
Salvi – You do realize that performance has absolutely nothing to do with metrics right? OOA is a fabricated number based on guesses not facts. Worthless to estimate when you have the facts. 7 time Abreu cost the Red Sox pitchers an opportunity for an out. Rafaela only did it 3 times.
So then your incorrectly stated comment about fielding percentage and errors are the same thing comes into play because THEY ARE NOT THE SAME THING. The percentage is the frequency of the ineptitude by the defender.
Abreu’s fielding percentage is embarrassing just like Devers’. He hurt the pitching staff significantly with his bad play based on the percentage of the time he failed.
THOSE ARE FACTS that should drive Gold Gloves.
So if OOA tries to predict outs it’s not a stat it’s an estimate based on the opinion of some company or body of personnel in the company deciding if an out would have occurred. There is no actual data just theory and guesses like will it rain tomorrow. You don’t know if the rain will occur until it actually does or does NOT. So we now give out GGs for weather men being historically better at predicting the weather rather than waiting to see if it actually rains and giving him an error if he says yes and it doesn’t. OOA is BS. It’s what happens when little boys don’t buy a glove and practice on a ball field and learn how to play the game but rather they play simulation what-if analysis after reading the rules of the game. Then they hypothesize what’s going to happen and provide rewards for theoretical play NOT REALITY!!!!
Let me address Range Factor too so we can completely dismiss the virtual reality estimates as stats. The metrics world hasn’t figured out how to fairly estimate range factor so it’s farther behind OOA in representing reality.
A SS has an uneducated 3B playing next to them who goes for every ball hit even if it makes no sense to attempt a play and the SS gets a limit range based on how it’s calculated. Did he do anything wrong? NOPE Is he any less of a player? NOPE. But the metrics people crap all over him because they don’t understand the game and WHAT MATTERS in a game. Theoretical distances based on past performance measures history and does NOT predict the future. So if a player SHOULD have a range of 10 feet based on previous balls hit that goes into his formula for evaluating the player. The next ball hit isn’t informed of his range, it’s simply hit and the fielder’s actual performance is only measure by whether he is successful in getting an out. Then, after the fact, his range factor which he is evaluated on gets adjusted. Does the range factor matter? NOPE because before the ball is hit there is no way to know why the range factor is what it is. Is the player being advised to play in a spot closer or farther from the balls hit to him. If it’s closer then naturally his range would be limited but it doesn’t reflect his actual range. The opposite is true as well. If his average distance to the ball is greater because he’s positioned poorly by the coaches he may have a far greater chance of the ball being out of the previous range established for him thus hurting his range once again. Do you get an out when a guy with 10 foot range and a guy with 15 foot range go after a ball 16 feet away? NOPE In that case, neither player is better than the other. What if the ball is 12 feet away? Is there no chance for the 10 foot range player to get to it because that’s his average for balls hit to him or is there a beta that establishes a probability chart that says his chances of fielding it are 55% compared to the 100% by the 15 foot range player? Does any of this assure either player of catching the ball? NOPE So who is the better player the guy who has greater range or the one who more consistently catches the ball and gets the out.
Abreu got the nod because of screwed up estimates like this while Rafaela is the more reliable fielder. I don’t know about you but I’ll take the more reliable fielder over the theoretically superior fielder ANY DAY.
I used defensive metrics from three separate websites. Fangraph, Baseball Savant and Baseball Reference to get a cross section, hence a fuller picture of the players abilities. Everyone of those sources use errors in their formulas yet still show Abreu to be the better fielder.
———–
You used
Errors
Errors to Attempt Ratio aka Fielding Percentage
You have several more stats you could have used, such as:
Errors per Game
Errors while wearing a Baseball Uniform
Errors while standing on a Green Surface
Errors with two eyes open
Your argument is a joke.
Salvi – A lack of baseball knowledge by you does not suggest my argument is a joke. Heck metrics would suggest that your limited knowledge of the game puts you at a far lower rated position to comment on the game than me. In fact, your limitations in baseball, statistics and common sense put you at the bottom of the knowledgeable baseball fan metric!!! It’s like your range is non-existent.
Can you not understand the fundamental principle that stats are after the fact results and estimates are projections concocted by theoretical people trying to simulate a situation before it happens? If you can’t understand that difference, you are a perfect candidate for following metrics because you have no clue about baseball reality.
Everyone has the choice of believing after the fact data or fabricated data. I don’t hold it against you for believing in make believe. It’s a generational thing. Too many simulations in your youth and not enough playing time.
But wait, I thought the Red Sox publicly stated they werent going to spend any money until their four big prospects were in the majors?
At least thats what Ive read many times here from one poster. Lol.
Awful move. They are still 3rd 4th 5th in attendance like always. Their fans will literally watch any product. No reason to go over luxury tax. Sounds like fans don’t believe they will so even more reason not to.
Instead of Snell how about Perez Quintana? Did I hear Rich Hill still wants to play?
As Jerry McGuire said famously, “Show me the money”! They need TOR pitching above anything else. Personally I wouldn’t go after Soto, if I didn’t care much about the money I’d just re-sign Tyler O’Neil. He’s an athletic 30 Homer 100 RBI guy when healthy. We have young capable outfielders to handle minor injury stints. If the piggy bank is broken and we can go on a spending spree why not get Snell and Freid? That’s what I’d do instead of chasing Soto.
bum – Agree with you they need a top starter. Houck could be one, but I don’t see Crawford or Bello or Gio becoming one … not with the Red Sox anyway.
I agree Soto is not a player I’d want to invest $600M in, that money could be better spent elsewhere.
Hard no on Tyler. He’s proven to not be athletic anymore, he can’t stay healthy, he can’t hit RHP, he strikes out a ton, and he chokes in big situations.
Agree with you on Snell, he’s my choice of the big free agent pitchers.
Wait for it. Kennedys nose is starting to grow.
trade for crochet sign snell, sign hernandez, sign scott and another middle reliever.
Remember that snell did not receive a qualified offer, so the sox have to give up nothing to sign him.
Crochet has a very very small salary.
Tanner scott is the closer.
Hernandez is right-handed power.
eh. If they’re going to sign a lefty I’d rather they signed Fried
alan – That small salary will be getting much bigger, he’s eligible for arbitration now. I think if he puts up a strong season, he should be signed to an extension next offseason.
Agree with you on Scott, but the Sox have Justin Wilson now so Scott is probably out.
You really want Kike Hernandez back? j/k
I would pass on Soto. I know how good he is, but the Sox could sign Teoscar Hernandez and Willie Adames and maybe one more free agent for the same amount of money. They have a surplus of good young outfielders, especially left handed hitters. Trade some prospects for Crochet and sign Evoldi.
not for nothing but in baseball 4 quarters doesn’t always equal a dollar. And No thanks on Evoaldi. Sox need reliable younger pitchers.
Redsox have set themselves up perfectly. Smartest organization in baseball. Tremendous youth with deep pockets
and Theo Epstein is back!
Theo is the man!
i agree
big window coming
if i were a red sox fan i’d be pumped
They’ve been selling that window was open this whole time, and now they are saying it is opening? They are over hyping things. There has been nothing to suggests, other than the normal rhetoric, things will be any different. They’ve got plenty of issues and they haven’t resolved them yet. Until then, why consider the window as big or open?
Cleveland – I think we all know the Red Sox don’t publicly reveal their plans …. unless they have ulterior motives, such as selling tickets and rebuilding the brand.
Rest assured, the most important date to the Red Sox right now is January 15, 2025 …. the deadline for season ticket renewals.
It’s not just about cutting big checks. They need to do what Dodgers do in evaluating their needs, assessing who’s available, determining what’s aquisitions are best for their team, and then be creative n do what u have to do to sign those free agents. Need to spend that capital wisely so as not to take on over the hill big names or players w/too many red flags (injuries, waning performance, older age, team 1st attitude, etc.). Dodgers don’t just give away money there is a detailed process involved to finding the gems amongst the fodder.
That will be 2025’s version of ‘We are interested in this player’ from 2024.
They have been under the luxury tax and out of the penalty, raise ticket prices AND STILL don’t spend any money.
Goose – Remember they actually said Fenway sells itself, the “Fenway Experience”.
Well …. I think ownership has seen that’s simply not true. People will not pay top dollar just to sit in the park when the team is not competitive. It’s far better – and cheaper – for people to take the official park tour.
There is no reason for this team to not get aggressive in free agency. They have a solid core of young players with more to come. The farm system is loaded they can easily go 20 to 30 million over the lux tax line and then dip down back below with all the cheap talent they have coming. Now is the time to get going.
Bruin – Hopefully this year’s financials, combined with the sluggish 2025 season ticket sales, combined with the huge amount of money that came off the books, will convince ownership to move up their competitive timeline a year.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
Let’s wait until John Henry chimes in on the budget. That;s when I’ll believe.
RickEO = The Red Sox are set up perfectly? How so? They ruined a championship team. They have failed their fans for half a decade for no reason. They’ve embarrassed themselves during the half decade. They hired the biggest cheater in baseball history.
Explain how that is a perfect set-up. Then explain what you think is going to happen that makes this so perfect. Did you believe their lies (which they have done for the previous 5 years) about all they are going to do in the free agent market? hahahaha This organization has been a joke for 5 years.
There is no big window coming? Are you looking for property in florida? hahahaha Do you get fooled in real life or only when it comes to Red Sox promises? There is NOTHING coming sorry but there is no Santa Claus either. There are just hard working parents who do everything for their kids. These owners don’t fit the description.
Seriously, do you work for the organization? Maybe a marketing person assigned to shovel the crap at the fans?
Even if they do something, it doesn’t explain or justify their behavior for the last five years. They suck as leaders of a baseball organization.
Sag – He’s not being serious, sucking up to ownership has always been his thing. Don’t get lured in by him, not worth your time and effort.
Smartest organization in baseball? Yeah they took a 108-win championship team and immediately turned it into a laughingstock.
Blah blah blah shut up sign one of those top3 fa sign two in the top 10 then
I think they’re gonna surprise everyone this offseason. I see them going strong for Soto, one of Burnes/Fried/Crochet, and one of the better bullpen arms.
Full throttle.
Are we stil talking about some off the cuff comment made a year ago?