The Red Sox flirted with playoff contention at times in 2024 but ultimately fell short, finishing five games back of a Wild Card spot at 81-81. That puts their focus on the offseason and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe published a column today, trying to read the tea leaves on some recent comments from chief baseball officer Craig Breslow as well as president and CEO Sam Kennedy.
Notably, the comments suggest the club plans to enter the winter with more of a win-now mentality. “It’s time to take that next step. It really is time,” said Kennedy. “You really need to build a roster and have a team that is built to win that division. That’s where we want to get to. We just have to go and do the right things that put us in that position to push towards 90-95 wins.” Kennedy has also stated that the club feels they have “building blocks” in place that they can construct a club around.
Of course, many fans will be quick to point to chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments from a year ago as a reason to be skeptical, since the club didn’t really follow through on that promise. Generally speaking, the Sox had a relatively future-focused offseason going into 2024, with the most notable move being the trade that sent Chris Sale to Atlanta for infielder Vaughn Grissom. That deal has gone very poorly so far for the Sox, as Sale went on to have an excellent season for his new club while Grissom struggled immensely after that deal.
But as Speier points out, most of the comments made by the Boston brass around this time a year ago were far more measured, with the “full throttle” quote being the exception that received the most attention. Breslow has recently suggested that a deal like the Sale-Grissom swap will get less consideration this offseason.
“That was a decision that was made with a longer-term focus in mind as much as 2024,” said Breslow on NESN’s 310 to Left podcast, as relayed by Speier. “Exclusively looking at the future is not something that we should be prepared to do as we embark on this offseason heading into 2025. Otherwise, fans would be rightfully frustrated with this continued push-off into the future of the window of contention. We can no longer ask our fans to look to the future, to think about a Red Sox team that’s capable of winning the division and capable of making a deep postseason run. We have to talk to decisive actions that we’re taking right now to put a better team on the field in 2025.”
Breslow echoed Kennedy’s comments that the club is setting a high target for next year. “It’s time to deliver the team that’s capable of winning the AL East and making a deep playoff run,” said Breslow. “If that means that guys who haven’t yet made their big-league debut need to be on the team to help us do that, then we have to be prepared for that. And if it means we have to be aggressive in bringing players in who aren’t currently in the organization to complement those who are, we have to be open to doing that as well.”
If the Red Sox are planning to be more aggressive, that could come in many forms. One of them would be financially, as the club could decide to return to being a top spender. Per the calculations of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox had one of the top five payrolls in the league from 2004 to 2020, including being first overall a few times, but they have dipped since. They were eighth in 2021, sixth the year after that and then 12th in the two most recent seasons.
Per RosterResource, the Sox have about $105MM committed to the 2025 roster, well shy of this year’s $183MM. That doesn’t include the club’s arbitration-eligible players, but they have a fairly modest class this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects salaries just under $5MM for Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Jarren Duran, the entirety of the club’s arb group. Even if Boston were only to carry the same payroll forward from 2024 to 2025, they would have a lot of powder dry, while they would naturally have even more to work with if they decide to push payroll up.
Another possibility would be to be active on the trade front, with Breslow acknowledging that they might have to make some tough decisions about which players stay and which ones go. “There are going to be a lot of really good major league players who aren’t going to realize their value in Red Sox uniforms because only one guy can do that at a time at second base or shortstop or center field,” said Breslow.
The Sox have promoted a number of young prospects to the big leagues in recent years, with those players having varying degrees of major league success. Duran had a huge step forward defensively this year, which made him a hugely valuable piece when combined with his offense and baserunning. He’s only just reaching arbitration for the first time as a Super Two player and can be retained for four more seasons. Triston Casas has a great combination of power and on-base ability, with four years of club control beyond this one. Connor Wong and Wilyer Abreu also had some encouraging results in 2024 and will still be pre-arb in 2025.
On top of those players, the Sox also have long-term deals for Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, Ceddanne Rafaela and Masataka Yoshida. They could pick up a cheap 2025 option on Rob Refsnyder for $2.1MM. There’s also the club’s emerging group of position player prospects. Catcher Kyle Teel, infielder/outfielder Kristian Campbell, shortstop Marcelo Mayer and outfielder Roman Anthony are all considered top 100 guys and each has now reached the Triple-A level, so they will be pushing for major league jobs next year. (Mayer technically hasn’t played in a Triple-A game yet as he landed on the injured list shortly after being promoted to that level.)
With Danny Jansen heading to free agency, there could be an easy path for Teel to eventually share time behind the plate with Wong. If Mayer eventually takes over the club’s shortstop job, Story could perhaps move to second, squeezing out other guys on the roster. Rafaela has played both the middle infield and the outfield, but Boston’s options on the grass already include Duran, Abreu and Refsnyder with Anthony on the way. Campbell, like Rafaela, can play both the middle infield and the outfield and will be a factor somewhere at some point.
As Breslow suggested, the club likely can’t find jobs for everyone here, which will naturally lead to some interesting trade discussions this winter. With all these players and only so many spots, perhaps Breslow could acquire some pitching from another club. Boston had a collective 4.05 earned run average in 2024, 16th among the 30 major league clubs. They are now slated to lose Nick Pivetta, Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to free agency.
Between the trade market and the club’s financial situation, Breslow should have all kinds of options to consider this winter as he tries to push the Sox forward in a crowded American League East for 2025. The Yankees and Orioles just wrapped up strong seasons. The Rays and Blue Jays disappointed in 2024 but have been in good form in prior years and will be looking to bounce back in 2025.
“It really is time” is the best of their crappy, dishonest slogans I think they’ll ever come up with. That’s pretty hilarious, actually laughed out loud at that one. Nice work, guys. Really.
I’ll see your “It really is time.” with “Full throttle!”
I didn’t think they’d be able to top full throttle but they knocked it out of the park.
Well, there is “This time we really mean it!” to look forward to.
I’m waiting for “It’s about time!”
Rip Luis Tiant
Full complacency
If they star wt Burne 170/6! Then trade Duran, Yoshida and some money for Gilbert( Mariners)…then Yess
need an opt out though, similar to Cole’s so they can leave for greener pastures so the Sox enjoy the fruits and not the malaise of their aging.
I assume you’re saying start with Burnes… I think he’s at least getting 30/yr. Durable and consistent.
One concern may be that his stuff over the last couple of seasons is down from his peak as Brewer. Notably his contact% dipped and this has transferred some of his strikeout dominance into relying on contact for outs. Although he’s maintained much of his propensity as an ace, the increasing usage of contact to get out introduces more volatility not otherwise seen in strikeout.
This shift is coupled also with decreased value in runs from his offspeed offers. This worries and suggests a possible future injury and makes injury risk a concern. Particularly relevant might be whether this is under Burnes’ control or not.
“we hear for you!”
Give up the BS Breslow and Kennedy we all know you are not going to improve this team only going to add cheap broken down players cause they don’t cost much money no one believes a word out of your mouth.
“It really is time”…to develop pitching and trade for established pitchers. The young core bats have the makings of a strong offense.
After the Chris Sale/Vaughn Grissom disaster, only 7 more months to go until Craig Breslow has his phone privileges restored by the Red Sox.
This should really be it for Sox fans. If they don’t have a big offseason this year, I think the FO is at serious risk of alienating a good portion of the fan base. It sounds like they are feeling the pressure.
So we all have different views of what constitutes a good off-season for them, but the important thing is that they do something. They have a ton of prospects and salary, so spend on FA or spend prospects in trades. At a high level, they need pitching and RHBs. They will need a little bit of both of those to have a good 2025, let’s see what Breslow can accomplish. I hope it’s better than his trade deadline. While I appreciate him making moves, the moves were either clearly the wrong one (Paxton) or unlucky (Sims, Garcia and even Jansen didn’t really perform).
More important than anything is the defense. People don’t realize how many pitches great defense can save and conversely how poor defense crushes and wears out a staff. The infield corners have to improve and Valdez has to go. Play the best defense you can assemble and go from there.
The defense has been no worse than the number two issue entering every off season since losing the 2021 ALCS.IF I knew that the defense was gonna be this bad, for this long. I think that the Sox should have just went ahead and signed Schwarber to DH. They probably would have squeezed out a couple of 90+win seasons
Schwarber proves his value every year and yes I wish he was my DH instead of Yoshida. That off season I wanted Boston to also sign Castellanos who to me is a “mini JDM”. While he’s been up and down, his protecting Harper will only make Harper more dangerous moving forward. That said, if we’re assembling a team today, start with defense . Saved pitches today allows your rock star pitchers to go even further and usually keeps your #13 pitcher from having to enter the game. 13 pitchers? Anyone remember the 75 WS where Sparky had a staff of 9? Yes, there was no DH used but still. That allowed for strategies throughout the series. I’m still thinking MLB manipulated the ball for so many long and hard hits. I’d also like to see a study on ash v. maple bats. It can’t all be how players today are stronger.
We have a first baseman and third baseman that cannot field. A bat first second baseman, who hasn’t played, let alone hit. Perhaps, if healthy, we may have a legit major league fielding shortstop with a slightly diminished range, and diminished arm. The catchers are “meh.”
I do agree that the starting rotation, left-handed reliever, and right-handed pure hitter with power have always been pressing needs and blights on this roster for years though.
I agree but this kind of all comes down to money. They have a loaded farm (minus pitching) but if they stick to the 2024 payroll or less I think we will all still be pissed whether they have success or not. This is the 3rd most valuable franchise in MLB, there is no excuse to be 12th payroll in the league. Ownership is the problem and the solution.
Bosox. They have no choice due to Rule 5 and roster issues. Trades have to be made. Hopefully they differentiate and again keep Devers while trading Moncada. I see Abreu, Hamilton and Wong all having some value to others and packaged together separately, they hopefully will get some needed return value (pitching). If they somehow can deal Yoshida eating a third of the money could free up the DH slot for Devers. Then the team either signs Bergman or pulls a swap with St. Louis for a certain third baseman. Yes he seems to be declining but regardless, he at least on paper improves your defense and provides a righty stick. No guarantees but it’s the move I’d consider. Given his contract, it shouldn’t cost much in prospects (assuming Henry will approve).
I agree trades need to happen. I think it will be Abreu and Durran. I see no reason why you’d trade Wong who’s a righthanded bat that is a decent catcher and plays other positions. If Cora would just leave him in the lineup everyday he’d hit 25 HRs and knock in 80+ runs. Hamilton is like a swiss army knife who need to learn the outfield and become the new Brock Holt. Yoshida needs to go to open up the DH for Devers. Mayer could slide over and play 3rd. They need to give Campbell and Anthony a shot at the outfield. Or trade them for a young Pitcher.
a swap with St. Louis for a certain third baseman.
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I like it. I’m not a big fan of the StL 3B, but it would be a very good fit. And StL could be a motivated seller.
I can’t wait for the Devers at DH era to begin……….along with every fan sitting behind the first base bag and league score keepers.
I agree with trading Abreu but not Duran. I’m also fine with trading Mayer. I’d prefer to keep Devers, despite his inadequacies, at third base for at least a couple more seasons. Otherwise, why did we overpay him just to become a DH.
Now, the likelihood they make the necessary deals still feels low, so I suspect there to be a logjam still. And from that I suggest this: slow playing Anthony and Campbell.
Anthony is still very young. His AA was tumultuous in spring, probably because he struggles with cold weather (not ideal for Boston springs). His success came against tired-out pitchers in late summer. I’d like to see him try AAA against refreshed and re-tooled AAA SPs before promoting him. Same with Campbell, but with more emphasis on seeing his stuff post-breakout.
Although I wonder how irritated impatient fans might be with this approach, I think its fairly reasonable as by May it would wrap up and we’d get promotions.
From full throttle to full milk baby bottle.
Pretty sure if nothing significant happens to improve the roster this offseason, Red Sox fans might actually start boycotting games next season.
Pretty sure some of us did
I call BS. If they haven’t by now, they aren’t going to. Also, attendance has slipped and most of the people filling those seats are corporate expenditures or tourists.
tang – Red Sox revenue was down $13M in 2023, a year in which overall MLB attendance was up 10%. Can’t wait to find out how far down Red Sox revenue was this year.
Red Sox were selling a ton of box seats and grandstand for $8 each, attendance has been artificially inflated many, many ways.
Fever, even if tickets are “free” you still need to take a loan out to feed your family and buy them overpriced souvenirs.
dewey – True, but I can’t relate. I do my eating and drinking before entering the park, and souvenirs I buy online.
The only thing I pay for at games is the ticket and sometimes parking.
dewey – Another sad day, Tiant passed away.
Last time I went was years ago and parking then was $40. Brought my nephew and sat in a law firm’s seats three rows behind the of dugout. Fortunately I got the seats comped. I wouldn’t even sit there today if I was again offered the seats. Just not worth it to travel from Long Island.
I know.
mlb.com/redsox/video/luis-tiant-passes-away-at-the…
dewey – Hope they put up an article here soon, it’s been almost 4 hours. Tiant deserves a nice writeup.
still need to take a loan out to feed your family
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I had a wonderful breakfast before my last RS/NYY game, so I didn’t need to get fed again.
And if I go with my drinking crowd, we usually have a few beers outside the stadium before the game.
Or maybe the season after, or the one after that.
With free agency likely to be a dud, what other than a big trade can they pretend to sell us. Because like Story or Yoshida, having money to spend only guarantees money being spent, not improving the team. Having lots of young talent is great but then you realize they don’t fit together.
Who are the targets we can realistically get? Let’s hear that before you try raising expectations to improve ticket sales, ok?
Precisely.
Alex Bregman? Heading into his age 31 season and already beginning to decline. Wouldn’t hate him as a short term bridge to hopefully Campbell in ’26 or ’27 while moving Raffy to DH but I’m sure he is not looking for a short term deal.
Pete Alonso, going into his age 30 season? We need to keep DH open for Devers, not fill it with Casas or Alonso.
Maybe Santander or Teoscar Hernandez? Could be good power bat options if O’Neill leaves.
But more likely, they will need to make a trade. There is a 40 man roster logjam to worry about. Good time to consolidate some quantity into quality.
Can Campbell play 3rd? He’s mostly played 2B and CF for us.
Jury’s out – maybe? His most natural fit is second but I’ve read that he is athletic enough to possibly be passable at third, short, or in the outfield. So I know it’s probably wishful thinking but what I’d love to see is to help clear up the middle infield logjam by having him focus on learning third. Even if it’s only a temporary solution, if they can squeeze a couple of adequate years out of him there before shifting him back over to second it could help ease the glut from the current imbalance between the 700 middle infielders and 2 corner infielders in our system.
Several of the above are what have always termed “fair weather” Sox fans. Many of those came around only after ’04 and complain mightily when the team does foolish things, which granted.. they have done the last few seasons, but really.. Going back to a nonsense speechmade by the VP/GM etc? Is it any different than word salads put forth by the actual VP, which have more negative impact, or constant brain farts by the dude who is supposed to be the prez?
Give Breslow and kennedy some credit and stop going back to 1 lousy sentence. many of these same folks happily overlook the other 2 i mentioned spouting rubbish. Why can’t they get the same pass and let them try something this offseason?
I’m sure that’s how the boy who cried wolf was explaining it to Peter at the gates
You are an idiot. It’s not fair weather to run from being abused lied to and robbed by this ownership
You’re only robbed if you’re foolish enough to give them money.
Tang – Plenty of people were tricked last year, told “full throttle” until the day after the season ticket renewal deadline. They won’t be fooled again though, management’s words are worthless.
Rubbish observation- been an avid Sawx fan since 1960 & a “Red Sox” Nation supporter since 1987 when Nathan Cobb coined the term.
Several of the above are what have always termed “fair weather” Sox fans.
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No doubt, but just two points.
1-The RS FO brought some of this on themselves with the “full throttle’ comment It’s too definitive a statement to make when you are already cutting back on payroll. I don’t over-react to setbacks, but it was a flat-out lie.
2-I’m also not someone that thinks we have to pay a gazillion $$$. But our payroll should be commensurate with out revenue, and it isn’t, and it is not close.
And one of the things lacking in these statements is a payroll number. Other GMs and FO’s have come out with statements about what their payroll will be. The writers should’ve put them on the spot and asked them what they expected the 2025 payroll will be.
To paraphrase Buffet, who borrowed the line from someone else, “the difference between a conversation and a commitment is a check.’
I can get behind what you are saying. I’m not going to shell out the 500 it takes for games. Not untill they sign some people that are top tier or trade a glut of prospects to get one or make a deal at the deadline that can make something happen
It’s time to take that next step. It really is time,” said Kennedy
SURE SAM SITTING HERE holding our BREATH……
Sammy you had to say “it really is time”” because of the past lies
ibuit – Totally agree, it’s the equivalent of “This time I mean it”.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice …..
Seems the initial & visible reveal of a small market strategy & collapse of Sawx front office/ownership management began with Mookie for Verdugo, Jeter Downs, Connor Wong & half of David Price salary — the Sale for Grissom & a continuous flow of mediocre cheap AAAA broke dick pitching & roster filler.
Apologies Darragh. It ws a decent article with a lot invested, but your point was what the largest group of RS whiners go wild over, like the comment section underneath it quickly turned into. i recognize 2 other names (so far) among Sox fans who are full blown RS gripers, not counting a cpl others who have posted that are fans of other teams.
In many ways Boston winning that title in ’04 was the worst think imaginable, then so quickly another in ’07. It brought out all sorts of spoiled riff-raff, who feel as if they and the team are just entitled to win and that’s not how the Sox, nor the game is and nobody can explain that to them.. deaf ears..
Not 1 of them, who complain so loudly remember the buddy LeRoux-haywood Sullivan Ownership group of the team and the miscues they allowed.. Nope.. Spending the near 200m as the team does now is/will never be enough.
I’ve always hoped for a way to send miscreants back into time.. See how bad things actually were at 1 time…
you make it sound like you want the team to fall back into the despair and oblivion by criticizing fans that want the team to continue to win and be up to the standard for the past 25 years.
A couple big free agent pitchers and they are the favorites in the east next year.
@Metsin4
Thin gruel on the FA market for pitchers. Burnes, Snell, Flaherty, Fried. That’s about it. Then bounce backs like Monty, Boyd & home run Heaney. But with the Cards cutting costs would they let or persuade Sonny Gray (no trade agrëement) and probably $10 million PA to go to Boston? They’d then get (Boston) a decent #2 for $22.5 million for two years plus an option…
Don’t forget about the Japanese pitchers that will be available. I guess it would depend on what the Cardinals wanted back. If he was made available there would be a lot of teams interested.
mets – Why doesn’t anyone here ever talk about Helsley?
He will be available, and he’d be exactly what the Sox would need if they truly intend to compete the next few years.
The Cardinals are one stop shopping for any team with money to spend.
And no doubt Boston will be “in” on all of them, until they all sign elsewhere and we end up with Rich Hill again.
It’s time all right! Time for a new manager
“That was a decision that was made with a longer-term focus in mind as much as 2024,”, (regarding the Sale trade). No. It was a salary dump by cheapskates.
How the hell was it a salary dump when they covered most of his salary for the season?
Ken – Sale was earning $29M AAV on his contract, the Sox paid only $17M for 2024 which means the Sox saved $10.5M.
And a Cy Young award. Brilliant move. Just one more over pay with Grissom, Yoshida, Devers, Giolito and Story. Maybe there first round pick in 2025 should be an accountant, a financial advisor or a manager?
So again, the Sox paid the majority of his 2024 salary. Not a salary dump. But you’re so well versed in seeing EVERYTHING in terms of dollars it’s no wonder you see it that way.
Ken – $10.5M may not be a lot of money to you, but to the Red Sox it’s more than 2% of their entire annual revenue.
Did you miss all the reports quoting the Red Sox as saying they couldn’t acquire players they wanted until they cleared existing payroll commitments?
It’s naive of you to believe the Red Sox operate without consideration for financial impact.
It’s not 2018 anymore.
I am so looking forward to another John Henry BS promise, in on everyone and signing no one and then Sam Kennedy insulting the fans while ticket prices go up and they go further under the salary cap.
Everyone forgets the first lie. They would spend once they got under the luxury tax and break the potential penalty they were under. 3 years later still not spending though they were well under.
Goose – 2020 was supposed to be the only reset year.
Pretty clear their true goal was get the payroll down to middle of the pack, which they did.
The financials will dictate how they spend going forward.
Full throttle…2 ?
Did any of the writers ask what the payroll would be in 2025? Everything else they said is completely meaningless without that number. I’ve been around enough to know that, if you aren’t committing money, you simply aren’t committed.
You mean money like what Texas spent this year to finish worse than the Sox did? Or money like Baltimore didn’t spend to finish well ahead of Boston?
When will some fans realize high payroll doesn’t guarantee success.
They don’t need to blow past the first CBT threshold. Kennedy said the “building blocks” for success “are already there” and that they need to “take advantage” of it. You can’t trade away your foundation so how else do they keep building up?
YBC- Kennedy was right about that in a way, but what wasn’t mentioned is 6 of those top 100 prospect (3 made mlb’s top 10 actually for ’25) is not 1 of them is a pitcher.. Of course and 3 of them are middle infielders.. Mayer, Campbell and Arias. Others are 2OF and the C Teel if interested, but still not 1 pitcher and how do they go about acquiring pitching? my guess is Mayer is the 1 who will be available, without being officially so along with multiple mid range kids they have and “possibly” Duran, or Abreu if a true Ace, with multiple years of control is available via trade.
Yankee – They just finished tearing down the 2018 team. Shouldn’t they stop for a moment and consider what they’ve done and ask themselves why? It’s hard to go forward when you don’t understand your past. For me, they are a rudderless ship and no off season promise will change that in my mind. Build a plan for success don’t just say we have a bunch of great pieces. Explain how they will fit together going forward.
@Sagacity Agreed. After the comments last offseason, something more substantive like “we’re going to push payroll to around $X and we’re going try to add X and X as we monitor the free agency market and also talk to various teams” would be more helpful.
The Rangers spent their money last year and won a World Series. Who did they add this year?
Actually they started the spending in 2022. For it they yes managed to win the WS last year, and went a combined 146-178 the other 2 seasons.
Metsin4 – They couldn’t add anything so they simply hoped the key injured pitchers would be back sooner than they were. They also lost their great young 3B for the second year in a row. They are still loaded like the Red Sox with young hitters but their hitters are much better fielders. Also like the Red Sox, their pitching needs to stay healthy for them to have a big 2025. Several hitters regressed which could happen in Boston in 2025. Guys like Refsnyder, Wong and Abreu are likely regression candidates. Garcia for the Rangers was the main regression in Texas. If Semien, Seager, Lankford, Carter, Garcia, Heim and Jung are back they simply need an upgrade at 1B and DH and they are a 90 to 100 win team with healthy pitching. They need to focus on their bullpen just like the Red Sox..
I’m not downgrading the Rangers. With their young talented lineup and Degrom healthy they will compete at a high level.
When will some fans realize high payroll doesn’t guarantee success.
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It doesn’t. But if we want two top-tier SPs, it will cost money. That’s the way it goes.
And I am going to follow and root for the RS like always. But if they are going to talk tough, then tell me what the payroll is approximately.
I mean, it is a simple enough process. If they tell me that the payroll will be around $230M, then I will believe that they are serious. If they tell me it will be about $180M, then I will believe that they are not serious.
Doesn’t sharing your expected payroll give your competitors too much information? I think they will spend money as long as it is for good deals. I think they are largely done with long, bloated free agent contracts.
All in – I read some quotes on another site that spoke specifically to the question of amount of payroll. The answer was exactly what you said. The response from the Red Sox front office was that it would give a huge advantage to competitors trying to sign FAs the Red Sox were interested in, if their payroll number was widely known.
Joe Brady, the question has been ask on several occasions, but thankfully the answer was not given!
Media, ask your questions to show you are ‘doing your job’, but do not be surprised when you do not get an answer. Many media questions only make the person asking look stupid. If Breslow is as smart as he is said to be, he will play his card close to the vest and reveal nothing until the FA is signed or the trade is complete.
Unfortunately, when what you need isn’t coming from your system, and you don’t have much of value to trade, overspending on aging FAs becomes a more attractive alternative.
Extending Cora was a mistake – I don’t get the front office’s obsession with Cora.
They exceed preseason expectations almost every year he’s managed.
“Preseason expectations” are purposefully set low for the Red Sox (The Chaim Bloom Hangover) and “almost every year” doesn’t cut it. That’s what this once proud franchise has become, barely out-doing pedestrian expectations “almost every year.”
They have 3 top 10 prospects in baseball about to come up. They are loaded with young talent. They are set up position players wise for a nice long run. I think you got spoiled in the last 20 years. It’s not realistic for a city to think they are going to win world championships every year in every sport.
Again, exactly my point. Expecting a money making juggernaut like the Red Sox to compete every year is not “spoiled.” Not talking about every sport – baseball. Don’t live in Boston, either. Perfectly reasonable to hold the Red Sox accountable. Those $500 monster seats can pay for some pitching.
They were in on Yamamoto and others last year. How much do you think they should outbid everyone for a pitcher? It’s not like their payroll has been low. Other teams fans are also paying huge sums of money for seats. They aren’t the only juggernaut around.
Metsin4 – Spoiled doesn’t describe a fan base who enjoyed a lot of success in a 15 year period, they are simply comfortable with winning and very, very uncomfortable with throwing away the core players that built their latest championship team. The complaining is about what they did not the fact that they didn’t win. Bloom destroyed the franchise with the moves he made (regardless of who directed him to do it or if it was his idea of how to remake the team in his image).
3 Division Titles in a row after finishing behind the Yankees in the division for decades was a level of sustained winning that was unprecedented. Pulling the plug on it at the first sign of adversity was a very, very strange reaction to the situation. Fans should be upset and feel cheated. The 2018 team might have won in 2017 if Cora and the Astros didn’t cheat and after Cora messed up Spring Training in 2019, that team could have bounced back to win another division in 2020 or 2021 depending on how quickly Sale got TJ surgery. Instead, ownership simply blew up the roster using Bloom and the fans never saw a corresponding reduction in costs for downgrading their championship team to a AAAA team.
I think suggesting they are spoiled is very inaccurate. They endured for years, got used to winning and then had the rug pulled out from underneath them. They got cheated out of an even longer run of success and an upgrade in status within the baseball world. Boston has been a Yankee comparable team since 2004 and they have enjoyed more success than the Yankees. Then it all vanished suddenly like the Baltimore Colts moving to Indianapolis. The Mookie deal or the firing of Dombrowski ended an era and it’s still a tough pill to swallow. Nope, spoiled is definitely not the right word.
Please, I grew up in New England. I have seen a drastic switch in fans due too the Red Sox and Patriots winning. Fans have become arrogant and think that is their right to win it all every year. You’ve had three mediocre seasons and the Red Sox have built a great farm system. It’s about to turn around for you probably for a ten year stretch and that’s not good enough. Ask anyone before 2000 and they would be grateful for what’s going on with the Red Sox.
Metsin4 – Your response is surprising. My family has supported Boston baseball since 1930 so I am familiar with the fan base over the years. I think you need to separate the Red Sox from the Celtics, the Patriots and the Bruins because the fan bases are clearly not that similar other than living in the same city. I believe your argument for what a Boston fan is like fits Patriot fans but not Red Sox fans. The Patriots dominated in a way far superior to the Red Sox and earned the right to be arrogant toward New York fans who have two far inferior football teams. The Yankees while not winning rings have still won most of the Division Titles since 2004 so the Red Sox fans don’t have anything to feel arrogant about like the Patriots. The Celtic fans in the 60s had the right to be arrogant and they were and maybe the Bobby Orr Bruins fans might have been arrogant for a short time too but it’s never been an extended time period like the Patriots and Celtics. The Red Sox fans were pleasantly surprised when they won their first Division Title in 2016, they may have thumped their chest a bit in 2017 when they repeated as Division Champs but if there has been an arrogant time period as you are suggesting it ONLY happened in 2018 thanks to the 3rd Division Title and World Series ring. That ended a year later when Dombrowski got canned and their franchise player was given to the Dodgers. There hasn’t been a reason for arrogance since SEPT of 2019. The architect of the championships was dismissed and then their best player since YAZ was tossed for no apparent reason.
As I read your comments, they sound like sour grapes and a huge over simplification of the Boston fan base across all sports. To me, you might have described Patriot fans but clearly the other fans in baseball, basketball and hockey have not had much to be arrogant about. Maybe your feelings were exaggerated based on the recent success of the Celtics but the fans didn’t expect a win like you are suggesting.
Your comments clearly missed the mark when describing Boston Sports Fans that are primarily baseball fans.
Red Sox and Patriot fans are the same people for the most part. They are arrogant in both. This was not the case before both teams won a combined 9 championships. I’m the one on here saying the Red Sox future is really good. The Red Sox fans are the ones saying you’re a juggernaut and should be getting the best players every year and dominating. It’s just not realistic. The Redsox have a ton of talent and lots coming. Patience is a good virtue to have.
It’s not like their payroll has been low.
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It is low, relative to their revenue. I’m not expecting a LAD, NYY, or NYM spending, but I do expect something higher than #12.
100%. They need to spend this offseason on pitching. They do that and they can compete with anyone. Their young players are ready to compete at a high level. They weren’t quite there in the last couple seasons.
mesin4 – I guess I am an exception then. I don’t see a division title before the end of the decade because they have two huge issues they can’t fix, their good young players still have to fit in a line-up where it’s constructed poorly, there is no ace and there are no signs of getting one since Sale was given away, defense is not a priority, the balance between right handed and left handed bats hasn’t been addressed and when it is I have no confidence that the right left handed bats will be kept. This team has enough talent to finish ahead of other struggling AL East teams like Toronto and TB but they won’t be catching BAL or NY in the next 5 or 6 years.
Does that sound like an arrogant perspective? I thought I was fairly normal in my views as a Red Sox fan. The talent of the 2018 was dismissed and the only replacements for them are the draft choices of the late 2010s. Those players are young and need to grow into all-stars like Bogaerts, Mookie and Devers. Duran is on the cusp of greatness, I think Casas if he can stay healthy will progress toward greatness in 2025, and the 3 three key pitchers have shown great potential as being every day starters in the middle of the rotation.
Looking at the players in the minors I can see where your comment about arrogance comes from because for the most part, those players haven’t proven much other than potential. To me, they need to get through the struggles of being a MLB player before anyone should declare this team anything more than a .500 team. Teel should be a big upgrade at catcher because Wong had poor performances until 2024. Is he for real, or is he a one time wonder who had everything go right this year. I think Teel, when ready, will be a very nice upgrade. Anothony is another potential upgrade but like so many of the outfielders, he’s left handed. Can the team go forward with Duran a lefty, Abreu a lefty, Yoshida a lefty and Anthony a lefty? Rafaela is right handed but seems to be the low man on the totem pole for some reason unknown to me. I loved his defense in center and shortstop. People cut Devers slack when he was young and hit .240 in their 2018 championship year but Cora leans toward Abreu and now Anthony will be up to fill one of the three spots. Duran, Abreu and Anthony with Yoshida at DH and Devers at 3B is a problem unless you are facing a right handed pitcher with good splits against right handed batters.
What do you think about a team that sets an unprecedented feat in winning 3 divisions titles over the Yankees and a World Series then has one bad season and they completely tear down the roster and remove the architect? I am not convinced it is arrogant to complain about what was done. Arrogance relates to expectations of winning not expectations of keeping a championship roster intact in hopes of winning. The anger, again, is not about not winning it’s about tearing down the team.
Blah blah blah. Put up or shut up
If it’s really “time to deliver” than be in on Corbin Burnes and Roki Sasaki and actually sign one, if not both of them
Rsox – Without question the Sox will be in on Roki, but like I said before EVERY team will be after him because this offseason he wouldn’t be a true free agent. He will get a team-friendly contract similar to what Ohtani got with the Angels.
What exactly would attract him to Boston? The only Japanese player on the team is very unhappy with how he’s been treated, plus he’s likely gone within the next year. Sawamura was very unhappy with the Red Sox too.
Combine that with the astronomical taxes, the cold weather, the unlikely chance they will contend, and the inability of the Red Sox to woo elite players, I just don’t see Roki coming at all.
That does beg an interesting question.
I don’t expect the Sox to get him or Burnes for that matter but it’s time to put up or shut up. Remember when Middleton said he’d spend “stupid money”? He did and then some. The comments like “full throttle” and “it’s time to deliver” only come back to bite them in the butt when another off-season of sitting on their hands comes around again
—Combine that with the astronomical taxes, the cold weather—
Fever, That hits most of the issue right on the head and add in on the “wrong” coast, as in several thousand miles further away from “home” for them whenever they want to return for a visit.
Think back to NPB vets who were happy in Boston, i can think of 2.. Koji and Taz and lets also not forget that Japanese society has changed significantly the last few decades, but many things happening now in this country are probably looked at as appalling to a still very conservative overall society, like Japan. NE isn’t anything like that. far from it.
john – Great point about travel distance, I should have included that as well.
Is time to trade some lefty bats.. Duran, Yoshida. Casas! Devers 1b.. get Nolan Arenado! Wt Burnes 170m/6 and a trade for Gilbert or Kurby
Duran is a top 5 player in baseball. It’s ridiculous to think he would get traded.
Redsox have Anthony Roman and Cambell in AAA plus Abreu! I bet Duran is trade…
Abreu will get moved over Duran. Duran is a nightmare on the bases and only going to get better. They’d be crazy to trade him over Abreu
Abreu has not proven he can hit lefties. He is currently a platoon bat. He will remain that until Cora gives him a chance to prove otherwise.
Abreu mashes RHP, and he plays great defense. He could be packaged to bring back a good starter.
I will reiterate something I wrote a week ago. Duran is a very integral part of the RS offense. He is a cornerstone for the next several years. To argue that they should trade him now for a starting pitcher is to deny his impact. He will probably improve further in his batting while his speed should maintain itself for at least several years barring injury. Those who argue that his trade value is at its maximum would probably be agitating for the RS to trade Ted Williams after his 1941 season. Now I’m not claiming an equilibrant talent, but the RS need to build with Duran, at least for the next few years.
It’s really hard to say he’ll keep improving on his bat speed or at all going forward. There’s a good chance that what he did this season represents his peak offensively. Exploring trading him especially with the players on their way up for pitching makes the most sense.
I wonder if Theo will have any positive impact on ownership spending? We all know he liked to spend as a GM/POBO. Maybe he’s happy staying in the background, but I doubt that would satisfy a guy like him.
Theo is reportedly watching every game closely and advising Breslow. I think his opinion carries a lot of weight with Breslow and ownership. Theo has said he keeps one eye on the present and one eye on the future when making moves. So, I expect Breslow to proceed that way.
Coop – Theo has a different perspective now, that of an investor. His focus is on profits, not winning.
I believe when profits can no longer be sustained by payroll reductions, the focus will then shift to increasing revenue via payroll spending.
Fever Pitch Guy – I’m confused. Are you suggesting that their profits are falling? Other than ticket sales, what would cause profits to fall since merchandising is going strong, the contract with NESN is locked in and concessions are still going strong?
The experience approach they adopted from the Cubs seems to be working because payroll is lower in 2024 than 2018 yet the retained payroll is only $10 million less than the $41 million in 2018 so the quality of players is significantly down but not profits..
I don’t think a .500 record has greatly deterred ticket sales like one would think because their “enjoy the experience of Fenway” campaign is working well enough that nobody in the ownership group is being forced to do anything.
It’s like a repeat of the post 2016 Cubs experience for fans. I’m hoping the degree that MLB analysts make fun of the Red Sox going forward will be the pressure needed to get the ownership to reduce their embarrassment and actually improve the team again. The negative comments on the MLB channel seem to be rising and are clearly higher than all years since the 2019 downturn.
Sag – I’m not suggesting, I’m using financial data provided by Forbes. I know the Red Sox don’t officially release their financials, but Forbes is a highly reliable source. They wouldn’t put out the numbers without solid support.
They don’t provide a breakdown, but you’re forgetting other revenue sources such as sponsorships etc. It was a $13M decrease in revenue last year, gate receipts went up $5M from price increases on some premium seating, which means a $18M decrease elsewhere.
There’s many factors in ticket revenue. For example, the more balanced schedule means 3 less games against the Yankees which are always big crowds. Rival fans make up a HUGE portion of ticket revenue, especially NL teams that come to Fenway every other year now which helps attendance.
Sure those who come just for the Fenway Experience help with revenue, but I think it’s a bit of a novelty in that when they’ve done it once, they will probably find other things to do for the first time. Especially in Boston with so much to see and do. They’d be better off doing the Fenway Tour than spending more for a game, especially because the game atmosphere isn’t very exciting when the Sox are constantly losing or when most of the crowd is comprised of rival fans. Are tourists gonna pay good money just to sing Sweet Caroline? Doubtful.
Yeah I totally agree with you, ownership is hurting the value of the franchise with the way they’ve been operating since 2019. However I don’t think John Henry or Tom Werner can be embarrassed or pressured into doing anything. They simply don’t care what people think, John Henry explicitly said that to Billy in Moneyball. They care about profits only, therefore a big enough decrease in profits is what will influence Henry to change his ways. Unfortunately Larry isn’t around anymore to influence Henry.
Fever Pitch Guy: I know the Red Sox don’t officially release their financials
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Without the actual information it is all speculation.
All – Good point. The net profits of the team are internal and likely going to the corporation. Without more info beyond the Forbes estimates of gross profit, there is no way to know if the net profit is growing or falling.
Having been part of Anheuser Busch when they owned the Cardinals, and being part of the financial group, I know how incredibly complicated it is to figure net profit from what appears to be gross profit guesses/facts presented by Forbes. Also, many confuse cash flow with profits so when the Dodgers completely blow up standard accounting by deferring payments, it makes annual non-disclosed numbers harder to estimate.
I only asked about the numbers provided by Fever Pitch Guy because I was hoping he had a source beyond Forbes. I don’t understand because it’s not public knowledge whether the parent company is moving profits to the corporate financial books to use to in new ventures like they have in the past. If so, the $40Million below the CAP could mean they are on the prowl for new sports organizations around the world OR they have serious cash flow issues. No way to know. I wasn’t trying to discredit Fever Pitch Guy’s information, just trying to see if he had insights beyond the public Forbes information because he had connections. FYI the net profit targets for the baseball industry used to be 6% because each corporation sets a hurtle rate of return on their investment.
Sag – Forbes provides Operating Income as well, I think you confused the Revenue numbers I referenced as Gross Profit. Red Sox had $62M Operating Income in 2023, down from $71.6M in 2022 …. and that’s despite the fact that the $170M Mass Mutual contract began in 2023. So even though the Sox reduced payroll by a large amount, they STILL are making a lot less than what they used to.
That’s why I keep saying, eventually they will need to bump up revenue by spending on player talent. Otherwise their Operating Income will likely continue to decline.
And I appreciate your posts, really enjoy reading them.
Fever Pitch Guy: Theo has a different perspective now, that of an investor. His focus is on profits, not winning.
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This is False. Theo Epstein is watching every pitch of every game and Breslow is consulting with him.
nesn.com/2024/07/red-soxs-craig-breslow-explains-t…
I wish the Red Sox for my first 40 years would have been full throttle.No wins until 2004.i am happy we have 4 titles since then but Wouldn’t you think teams should win a title in a decade?We are pushing towards that.With the baseball is and a lot of teams who never win.You should be able to use your might and outspend for a team of great players.
@ TB Sox NY
As there are 30 teams, statistically the average would be one WS every 30 years. As for out spending for a team of great players, most players reach FA around 30 years of age, and are at the end of their “great” phase. FAs should be used to supplement, not build. The few young FAs will be highly sought after and be high risk with long, high dollar contracts. Health is never a certainty. Look at how the Price and Sale contracts worked out. Good at the start, and a salary dump at the end.
stymeedone – Your comments reminded me that baseball has had two distinctly different eras. From the time the Babe went to NY to 1962 the Yankees won every other world series. The disbursement of the title was not as your numbers suggested because the money spent by teams had a much greater impact on who won rings and the Yankees far, far exceeded every other team.
Since 1962 however, the theory you suggest of winning every 30 years has been far more likely but it’s still not a reality for many franchises due to the funding of the individual franchises.
There have been 60 world series since the Yankees ended their dominance in 1962. Here are the 30 franchises and how many rings they have won since 1962.. Any team with 2 or more would be above the expected number of rings which is 1.67!!
Yankees – 7
Cardinals – 5
Dodgers – 5 (one during a 60 game season 2020)
Red Sox – 4
Athletics – 4
Giants – 3
Reds – 3
Orioles – 3
Blue Jays – 2
Braves – 2
Marlins – 2
Mets – 2
Phillies – 2
Pirates – 2
Tigers – 2
Twins – 2
Royals – 2
Astros – 2
NOTE: 18 of the 30 teams are above the expected value of 1.67 rings and they account for 54 of the 60 rings
Nationals – 1
White Sox – 1
Cubs – 1
Angels – 1
Rangers – 1
Diamondbacks – 1
Those without a ring since 1962:
Tampa Bay
Cleveland
Milwaukee
Seattle
Colorado
San Diego
The NYY have spent more than a billion more on players than any other team since 1963 and only have 7 rings. That is strong evidence that size of payroll doesn’t impact your likelihood of a ring by much. It does get you to the playoffs consistently, but the big spenders don’t win many rings, especially since 2000.
The well recognized GMs who are revered by many have a lower success rate at winning rings than other lesser known GMs. Example, Chris Young has 1 as does Friedman. GMs like Dombrowski are known for spending and winning rings at a higher than usual rate. There are so many factors impacting successfully winning a ring that no one simple formula works and luck has a lot to do with it. Building within sometimes works, grabbing free agents sometimes works, getting a great manager sometimes works and getting a great GM sometimes work. Prescribing how to win a ring suggests a knowledge level that doesn’t exist. Effective general philosophies and lots of luck seems to be the two main ingredients in winning rings.
If there has been 60 World Series and 30 teams then the expected World Series wins would be 2. However a few of those teams weren’t around for all 60 years and skews the math a bit. The teams around for all 60 years would have an expected wins of slightly more then 2 and obviously less for the newer teams.
I couldn’t disagree more with the money aspect. The Yankees didn’t get a ring from 1979 to 1996 but had the best record of any team in baseball throughout that entire time period. The made the playoffs in nearly each year of the wild card era. To win a ring you have to be in the playoffs. To have a chance a chance at the playoffs consistently you have to have the talent to make it there despite what other teams have and spend. The Yankees payroll begins with an understanding they bought at least 85 wins, but the goal is upper 90’s. The Yankees have not won 85 games, If I remember perhaps 6 or 7 times since the early 1970’s in non-shortened years.
The Yankees are the extreme, but the point is to have an increased chance to make the playoffs, so you have a chance at a ring. If you spend consistently, you’re going to make the playoffs more consistently. It doesn’t mean you will win one all the time, but you will win. The teams with the lower payrolls make the playoffs in spurts. They usually cannot retain talent, nor afford to acquire it, which is usually what gets you to the playoffs.
I do not think it is a coincident that the Red Sox achieved the greatest franchise success during an era in the early 1900’s when they easily had the most talent in the league for years, and the recent stretch of playoff runs and rings while spending at, or close to the top of the league.
William – You clearly are a probabilities guy. Yes, to win you must make the playoffs and THEORETICALLY you have a better chance of winning if you are in the playoffs like the Yankees or the Dodgers. Now do a postmortem evaluation of the situation. I think you will find that while the hypothesis is correct the results prove that the Yankees and Dodgers have by far the worst post season records in baseball.
Until the highly successful regular season teams learn how to win in the post season, thinking they are more likely to win ignores the facts. A great season only guarantees an opportunity not success. Success comes from knowing how to build a post season roster and deliver in the clutch.
If making the playoffs is the goal of the organization then spending big money is the way to get there. If winning a ring is the goal of the organization, then it’s not about money, it’s about talent acquisition with skill sets that favor a short series and acquiring clutch performers.
Success is in the eye of the beholder. I like rings on a regular basis but it doesn’t have to be annually because it’s not realistic to think that way. Others prefer great regular seasons and bragging rights more than rings. Everyone is different.
@sagacity
I never said it was reality. I said statistically. Yes, its not an even playing field, but to get upset because your team doesn’t win every decade is foolish, as its an unrealistic expectation. That’s what I was pointing out to the previous poster.
william – Great post as always!
Yeah big spending is the equivalent of buying admission to the postseason, as depth is what’s most important in getting to the playoffs.
But once you’re in the postseason, it’s a whole different ballgame. 4th & 5th starting pitchers, 6th thru 8th relief pitchers, those all aren’t that important in the postseason. Prior postseason success, good health, smart managing, and team cohesiveness are what’s most important.
As one example, that’s why the 116-win Seattle Mariners got steamrolled by the 95-win defending champs in 2001.
sag – Great post! I have always felt the exact same way as you wrote at the end, success is based on personal preference.
Some people here are content with 2 championships over the past 17 seasons, even if the team finishes last in the other 15 seasons.
Me? I’m fine with just those 2 championships in 17 seasons, provided they are competitive and make the postseason in at least 10 of the other 15 seasons.
So no more than 5 bad seasons over the past 17 would be acceptable for a franchise like the Boston Red Sox.
In reality, it’s been 10 bad seasons over the past 17 …. which is absolutely unacceptable.
Correct, you cannot win annually, but you can have a chance to win annually. Going to the world series 10 straight years in a row and winning once is not a bad result. You won a ring. You presumably had a full stadium for a decade, made a boat load off playoff TV money, are selling tons of merch, are the sports buzz in your region, and have every player in the league wanting to play for you. That last part sound familiar with a couple of teams? Hell, you may even get players to be willing to take less to have a guaranteed 10% chance for a ring every year.
stymeedone: most players reach FA around 30 years of age, and are at the end of their “great” phase. FAs should be used to supplement, not build.
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Exactly. Signing older free agents to long, expensive contracts often goes bad. We are now waiting out the Yoshida and Story contracts after waiting out the Sale contract. It seems the Red Sox are building mainly through the farm system which is fine with me. They can fill in holes from free agency when their top 100 prospects are on the team and I think they are keeping financial flexibility until then. They are also likely keeping financial flexibility so they can lock up more of their young talent.
All – You make some great points but your timing seems off. Who is the most expensive player who won’t give you relief in the next 9 years? Devers. He is close to $30 million of the CAP money (roughly $230 Million). Next you have Story. His $23.3 Million is roughly another 10% of the available money under the CAP so that makes close to 25% of the available money going to these two guys, a good hitting bad fielding 3B and a SS who has yet to prove he’s a good hitting and fielding SS.
Here are our base obligations that prevent true financial flexibility:
Devers $30 Million 9 years
Story $23.3 Million 3 years
Yoshida $18 Million 3 years
Giolito $19 Million 1 year
We finished roughly $40 Million below the CAP in 2024.
So to me, there are a couple of key issues for things to work like you suggest.
1 – Someone needs to approve using the $40 Million not spent under the cap to move from a .500 team to a division contender
2 – Someone needs to improve the defense with their future moves and to balance the left handed / righted handed imbalance..
Filling holes needs to be done effectively and with the above parameters in mind. If that happens, then your optimism will be well spent. My only warning is to not count your chickens in the minors until they are truly ready. For a decade we produced three big guns in Bogaerts, Mookie and Devers. Then there was a lull before Duran erupted and possibly Casas too.. Thinking we will hit on all the farm system players is unrealistic. Anthony, Teel and Campbell look like they are for real but they have so much to prove and they could have experiences like Duran did where half the fans wanted him traded until he erupted a year ago. That’s what the next few years will be like, not instant stardom for the big three. Heck some put Mayer in the big three not Campball despite him being Minor League Player of the Year. Normally that honor commands a lot more respect so that simply goes to show you that the front office is not right whoever the decision makers are. That must change for success to follow.
Sagacity: You make a lot of good points, especially about the farm system. It is a tricky situation because if they think a prospect will pan out, they should avoid signing someone who will block him. I didn’t mention Devers because I don’t consider him a bad contract at this point. He is still hitting quite well. Giolito has one year left. So, I don’t consider that a big problem. I’m not sure where you are getting $40M under the cap from. The Red Sox have been according to Cot’s:
2021: $207.6M – $2.4M below CBT tax threshold of $210M
2022: $236.1M – $6.1M over CBT tax threshold of $230M
2023: $225.7M – $7.3M below CBT tax threshold of $233M
2024: $224M – $13M below CBT tax threshold of $237M
I think they are spending enough, but they need to spend it better and I think they are working on that. I’m not worrying about the R/L balance of the future lineup right now. I think they can likely make some trades to balance that. I am optimistic. I see things getting better. It may take some time, but there may be a good window of competition coming.
Correction: The Red Sox finished 2024 at $223.1M – $13.9M below the CBT tax threshold of $237M.
2025 will be the crossroads building on the marginal positives of 2024 or spinning our wheels in desperation. The Sox spend money every year they just don’t spend it wisely. For what they have expended the past five years for a multitude of marginal major league caliber players they could have invested in a hand full of quality arms! The 30 red Sox top prospect list if coldly rated will show only 10 have the real potential of making the mlb roster the rest at best are cup of coffee fill ins and one game call ups.
Winning is so overrated
You win a participation trophy for posting =)
Agreed. What’s fun is having meaningful games to play. How the Tigers will finish this year is yet to be determined, but boy is it fun right now!
Here’s the great thing about the prospects that are coming. These guys are ball players, they play both sides of the ball and they’re good base runners. They don’t have big splits so who cares if they’re mostly left handed. This gives all these guys high floors and high ceilings. Roman Anthony has mostly played center and he has the defensive chops to play center but most likely he plays right for Boston due to Rafaela being in center. Campbell can literally play any position and mostly well defensively I expect to see him pretty early in 2025 and if Grissom falters I look for him to take over 2nd but if Grissom flourishes there will still be room for Campbell as long as he hits as a super utility guy who played nearly everyday. Teel has the biggest splits among the big 4 but I’m not concerned about him long term. Marcelo Mayer has the most to prove mostly due to injuries. He needs to stay healthy because when he does he hits. Imo he’s the one guy in the right deal I would trade out of the big 4. It’s not because I think he will be bust it’s because I’m not trading Anthony under any circumstances and I’m loathe to trade Campbell or Teel.
This team needs one tor arm along with a couple more reliable bullpen arms. I think having Grissom, Campbell, a hopefully healthy Story along with Anthony,who hit lefties to .320 average last year. Casas won’t have big lefty splits Duran has pretty big splits and Abreu has always had issues with lefties because he pulls off the pitch against lefties but for the most part this team especially when Anthony and Campbell start should have no trouble with lefties.
If Boston can get that tor arm to go along with Houck, Bello, Crawford, and Giolito the rotation suddenly looks a lot better with Fitts, Priester, and Dobbins as legit starting pitching depth in AAA Worcester and Criswell who is out of options I believe and will be carried most likely in long relief until needed.to start. The rotation looks a lot better if the get that tor arm to anchor it. There is also likely going to be more improvement from the returners Houck, Bello, and Crawford. I especially see Bello improving he was there best starter in the second half and I see him improving on that.
As the team stands I think we can see improvement but this team really takes a step forward with tor arm and two high end bullpen pieces. I don’t think the position players are an issue at all they just might need a little tweaking but the quality depth that this team has is higher then it’s been in a long time. I expect good things next season with a little help from ownership and the second year of the pitching lab under the new pitching gurus.
Bruin – Good stuff. When do you think Giolito will be back. I expected a minimum of 16 months like so many of the other TJ survivors. Is Giolito really a pitcher we can count on other than late in the season?
Sage I think Gio had the internal brace surgery not the full TJ surgery. He should be ready in spring training.
Allegedly. Prospects are, for the most part, wild speculation. Good post though. Take a gander at every single highly touted Red Sox pitching prospects in the last 80 years that turned into a star with us then take the roughly 40 seconds you will need to type all their names out. It is that historically bad.
Red Sox have far better results on hitters making the call up and performing well enough to stick. Many performed above average, some well below, others became stars. The funny thing is how well the not so highly touted guys did in comparison to the sure things.
Either way, nice post.
They are exactly where they wanted to be. Its actually ingenious. Loaded with young talent and tons of money to spend. They aren’t cheap they are brilliant Sit back and watch hows its done ….again
Rick – You always crack me up, thanks for the morning laugh. I needed it after the Tiant news.
I think that was sarcasm, but the amount of people fired over this brilliant positioning scheme makes me think this wasn’t a plan, let alone a master plan.
william – I admittedly am not good at identifying sarcasm, but Rick has always been comically pro-FSG to the point where it’s likely just for entertainment purposes. I do enjoy it, makes me laugh.
john henry is too invested in liverpool and the penguins to care about his hometown team. lol
Rip Luis Tiant such a great person never mind player
case – Agreed, hopefully they write an article here. Even if it’s just a paragraph with “More to come” ….
Un momento de silencio para el Tiante. RIP Luis.
I for one, am excited. The rebuild is basically over. Anyone who thinks they couldve stayed competitive during 2020, 21, 22, without any mlb capable players and thinks the team could have been built through FAs, when the team was already over the threshold and had multiple players hitting free agency soon, is nuts. Spending money during those 3 years would have been a waste of resources. Now they can finally break that piggy bank.
Trade Yoshida (eat 30M)
Trade Casas
Sign Manaea or Fried
Sign Walker for 1b
Sign Yates to close
Lets the kids and Story fight over 2B, SS and 3B
Devers moves to DH, with 30 or 40 starts at 3B
Team will be contending for Division title with a more balanced offense, and worlds better defense and pitching.
Happy hunting Red Sox.
Salvi – Lots of comments that are not accurate.
1. – The Team in 2019 had a bad year and Sale’s surgery added a year to the setback since Dombrowski got fired and the three middle managers did nothing and then Bloom did nothing until March. The 2018 roster was a potential dynasty just like the Phillies are now. A team who can win the division and a ring every few years.
2 – The team was over the threshold from over spending 3 to 5 years prior to the 2019 season. Boston won the WS with an active roster nearly $30 Million below the CAP. The historical costs put them over. Those should not have devastated the next 5 years. You over simplified the problem. Those all rolled off within a year or 2 and Price’s opt out in 2020 meant the team had reset the luxury tax and Mookie asking for more money could have been paid with no penalties. I personally would rather have Mookie than all that has occurred since.
3 – The timing of the opt outs was a brilliant move allowing Boston to have Bogaerts on a home team friendly contract and allowing him to get an upgrade for good performance. The JD contract worked out badly because Devers should have been the DH but JD replaced Papi far better than anyone could have imagined at a reasonable price.
4 – Trading Casas makes no sense
I love that you included Devers to DH. That is the single biggest move that can be made in 2025 but it won’t happen.
1) . I see you completely avoided the biggest problem with the “potential dynasty”. DD had gutted the farm system by 2019. 31 prospects were traded away in pursuit of the 2018 championship The farm system was ranked in the bottom 5 by every major ranking system. And it was proven out by the lack of any minor leaguers making a significant contribution in 2020, 21, 22. Not until Duran, Houck, Bello etc did any contribute. No way you have a dynasty with just Free Agents.
2) ” Boston won the WS with an active roster nearly $30 Million below the CAP”
Your facts are WRONG. Red Sox were OVER the cap in 2018 and 2019. So severe penalties were going to begin in 2020. So your entire point makes no sense.
mlbtraderumors.com/2018/12/red-sox-nationals-only-…
3) Bogaerts extension was a good move. Extending Betts before he got close to his walk year wouldve been a “brilliant” move.
4) “makes no sense”
Maybe you dont realize how left-handed the offense has become or the negative value Casas’s glove is.
So to drive home my point.
If you complete ignore the lack of any quality players coming up from the minors that could help in 2020 thru 22. Have entire facts wrong about the dire salary threshold situation, and the pentalites they incur, then you could believe it was a “dynasty”.
But, I it for what it is. A bunch of uniformed fans, with bad information thats perptuated here, running around believing a farce.
So a straight up lie, and when caught you disappear. I guess you were hoping I didnt know how to Google something.
Typical MLBTR Red Sox troll right here. Sagacity, Trollfree, KD17, whatever your name is.
So much negativity here, a fan base far too spoiled by success in the 2000s. If Breslow has a brain, he can turn a .500 team with a lot of payroll flexibility and tons of young offensive talent into a playoff team.
The rotation needs a stud or two to add to Houck and Bello and fill out the rotation. Need a couple of relievers. Wong, Casas, Devers, Duran, Rafaela should be locks. Figure out who stays/goes from Grissom, Story, Yoshida, Hamilton, Abreu and how they fit around or push out Teel, Mayer, Campbell, Anthony who might bring pitching help.
They are in a positive position, they easily can be a playoff team.
Every time I hear anyone in the Red Sox “Front Office/ Hierarchy” speak, I get a vision of Pinocchio!
John Henry does not care what happens to this team as long as it makes him money. I hope he has devised ( rhymes with despised) to take it with him!
As a big Red Sox fan, I want nothing to do with Crochet. He might be a long term ace, but there’s nothing to suggest that he can stay healthy and perform, and he’s going to be expensive.
Here’s an ideal offseason for the Sox:
1. Sign Soto.
2. Sign Fried / Snell / Some Top Tier FA
3. Use those two signings, convince Sasaki that Boston is going to the best fit for him.
Signing Soto adds another great bat and will help take pressure off of Devers – Soto seems to want to be in the spotlight while Devers doesn’t. That’s perfectly fine.
They will need another big signing to show Sasaki they’re committed to winning. In comes one of the top tier SP. Having that top tier SP will help not only Sasaki, but the existing Sox rotation as it’s pretty young.
While I think all of this is possible, I find it highly unlikely. It all will start with Soto, as he’s likely the first domino to fall. If the Sox miss out on him, they could still have a good offseason by spending on two SP and a RHB.
I am a big critic of FSG in recent years, but they can quickly turn around the narrative by signing Soto or a top tier SP.