Orioles Sign Tyler O’Neill

December 10: The Orioles officially announced O’Neill’s signing this afternoon.

December 7: The Orioles are in agreement with outfielder Tyler O’Neill on a three-year, $49.5MM deal according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman adds that the Boras Corporation client’s contract comes with an opt-out opportunity following the 2025 season.

O’Neill, 30 in June, entered his walk year having just been shipped from the Cardinals to the Red Sox. While he had earned down-ballot MVP consideration with a fantastic 2021 season in St. Louis, back-to-back down seasons combined with a glut of viable outfield options left O’Neill as the odd man out with the club. He made the most of the situation and carved a regular role for himself in Boston this year, however.

While O’Neill struggled with his health between two trips to the injured list this past year, he performed at a high level when healthy enough to take the field. In 113 games for Boston, he slashed a strong .241/.336/.511 with a 131 wRC+. That production came with an unsightly 33.6% strikeout rate, though O’Neill made up for it somewhat with 31 homers and a 11.2% walk rate.

The outfielder is certainly not without warts. His high strikeout rate is at least somewhat concerning even when factoring in his power and high walk rate, and he also posted a massive platoon split last year. While he put up an incredible 215 wRC+ against left-handed pitching last year, same-handed pitchers held him to below average offense (91 wRC+) overall as he hit just .208/.290/.403 against them. O’Neill’s lengthy injury history is also something of a red flag that could hamper his value in the coming years. Even with those concerns, however, it’s easy to see O’Neill’s fit in Baltimore. The Orioles have a deep position player mix that can help to cover for O’Neill when he’s injured and perhaps even give him occasional days off against tough right-handed opponents.

Meanwhile, O’Neill’s phenomenal numbers against left-handed pitching could provide a massive boost to a heavily left-handed Orioles lineup. Orioles outfielders hit a decent .236/.302/.419 (106 wRC+) against left-handed pitching last year, but much of that production came from Anthony Santander’s 132 wRC+ against southpaws. Santander is now a free agent, leaving the club with the lefty-swinging Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins, Heston Kjerstad, and perhaps Ryan O’Hearn in their projected outfield mix. All four of those players are left-handed hitters, and Cowser’s 89 wRC+ against lefties last year was the highest mark among the quartet. By adding O’Neill to the mix, the Orioles should be able to help balance an outfield that projected to be well below average against southpaws in 2025.

Notably, they’ve also done so at a far more affordable price tag than they likely would’ve if they simply re-signed Santander. While MLBTR’s #9 free agent on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list was predicted for a four-year, $80MM pact in free agency after slugging 44 homers for the Orioles this year, O’Neill ranked farther down the board at #19 with a projected deal of three years and $42MM. It’s a deal O’Neill managed to beat by a small amount in terms of total guarantee, and he managed to add additional value to his contract by affording himself the opportunity to opt out of the final two years of the deal next winter. If O’Neill manages to stay healthy and replicate his strong production from his time in Boston in 2025, it’s not hard to imagine him re-entering free agency in line for a much more lucrative deal next winter.

In the meantime, O’Neill will provide a veteran presence in a young and exciting Orioles lineup. Baltimore is known to be in the market for a catcher to back up Adley Rutschman at the position and push waiver wire addition Rene Pinto into a depth role, but O’Neill’s signing likely represents the heavy lifting in terms of the club’s offensive upgrades this winter. That doesn’t mean they’re done for the winter, however; the club has long been connected to the market for starting pitching as they look to either reunite with or replace ace hurler Corbin Burnes at the top of their rotation. Aside from that, the club figures to make bullpen additions who can help to replace hurlers Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb, though the return of closer Felix Bautista from Tommy John surgery in the spring should provide a big boost to the relief corps already.

The club figures to still have resources available to make those additions even after adding O’Neill. RosterResource projects the Orioles for a $114MM payroll in 2025 with O’Neill in the fold. That would not only be a step above last year’s payroll but also the highest payroll the club has put forward since the 2018 season. Of course, the club’s new ownership group led by David Rubenstein has seemed far more open to spending in free agency that the Angelos family was in the final years of their ownership tenure, and the club has been candid about their increased payroll flexibility this winter. The club is likely further emboldened by just how clean their long-term books are: O’Neill’s contract is their first guaranteed money on the books for the 2026 season, with all other payroll commitments coming in the form of arbitration level or pre-arbitration level players.