December 10: The Orioles officially announced O’Neill’s signing this afternoon.
December 7: The Orioles are in agreement with outfielder Tyler O’Neill on a three-year, $49.5MM deal according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman adds that the Boras Corporation client’s contract comes with an opt-out opportunity following the 2025 season.
O’Neill, 30 in June, entered his walk year having just been shipped from the Cardinals to the Red Sox. While he had earned down-ballot MVP consideration with a fantastic 2021 season in St. Louis, back-to-back down seasons combined with a glut of viable outfield options left O’Neill as the odd man out with the club. He made the most of the situation and carved a regular role for himself in Boston this year, however.
While O’Neill struggled with his health between two trips to the injured list this past year, he performed at a high level when healthy enough to take the field. In 113 games for Boston, he slashed a strong .241/.336/.511 with a 131 wRC+. That production came with an unsightly 33.6% strikeout rate, though O’Neill made up for it somewhat with 31 homers and a 11.2% walk rate.
The outfielder is certainly not without warts. His high strikeout rate is at least somewhat concerning even when factoring in his power and high walk rate, and he also posted a massive platoon split last year. While he put up an incredible 215 wRC+ against left-handed pitching last year, same-handed pitchers held him to below average offense (91 wRC+) overall as he hit just .208/.290/.403 against them. O’Neill’s lengthy injury history is also something of a red flag that could hamper his value in the coming years. Even with those concerns, however, it’s easy to see O’Neill’s fit in Baltimore. The Orioles have a deep position player mix that can help to cover for O’Neill when he’s injured and perhaps even give him occasional days off against tough right-handed opponents.
Meanwhile, O’Neill’s phenomenal numbers against left-handed pitching could provide a massive boost to a heavily left-handed Orioles lineup. Orioles outfielders hit a decent .236/.302/.419 (106 wRC+) against left-handed pitching last year, but much of that production came from Anthony Santander’s 132 wRC+ against southpaws. Santander is now a free agent, leaving the club with the lefty-swinging Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins, Heston Kjerstad, and perhaps Ryan O’Hearn in their projected outfield mix. All four of those players are left-handed hitters, and Cowser’s 89 wRC+ against lefties last year was the highest mark among the quartet. By adding O’Neill to the mix, the Orioles should be able to help balance an outfield that projected to be well below average against southpaws in 2025.
Notably, they’ve also done so at a far more affordable price tag than they likely would’ve if they simply re-signed Santander. While MLBTR’s #9 free agent on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list was predicted for a four-year, $80MM pact in free agency after slugging 44 homers for the Orioles this year, O’Neill ranked farther down the board at #19 with a projected deal of three years and $42MM. It’s a deal O’Neill managed to beat by a small amount in terms of total guarantee, and he managed to add additional value to his contract by affording himself the opportunity to opt out of the final two years of the deal next winter. If O’Neill manages to stay healthy and replicate his strong production from his time in Boston in 2025, it’s not hard to imagine him re-entering free agency in line for a much more lucrative deal next winter.
In the meantime, O’Neill will provide a veteran presence in a young and exciting Orioles lineup. Baltimore is known to be in the market for a catcher to back up Adley Rutschman at the position and push waiver wire addition Rene Pinto into a depth role, but O’Neill’s signing likely represents the heavy lifting in terms of the club’s offensive upgrades this winter. That doesn’t mean they’re done for the winter, however; the club has long been connected to the market for starting pitching as they look to either reunite with or replace ace hurler Corbin Burnes at the top of their rotation. Aside from that, the club figures to make bullpen additions who can help to replace hurlers Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb, though the return of closer Felix Bautista from Tommy John surgery in the spring should provide a big boost to the relief corps already.
The club figures to still have resources available to make those additions even after adding O’Neill. RosterResource projects the Orioles for a $114MM payroll in 2025 with O’Neill in the fold. That would not only be a step above last year’s payroll but also the highest payroll the club has put forward since the 2018 season. Of course, the club’s new ownership group led by David Rubenstein has seemed far more open to spending in free agency that the Angelos family was in the final years of their ownership tenure, and the club has been candid about their increased payroll flexibility this winter. The club is likely further emboldened by just how clean their long-term books are: O’Neill’s contract is their first guaranteed money on the books for the 2026 season, with all other payroll commitments coming in the form of arbitration level or pre-arbitration level players.
Great signing for orioles!
Good signing with the walls moving in!
Welcome to the Orioles/Baltimore Mr. O’Neill!
His LD power wasn’t a great fit for the green monster. Bregman and Parades would be perfect in Boston. Anyway, you’re right, bringing in LF and lowering the fences in the power alley for more potential robbing action should be a great fit for O’Neil.
Have to wonder how many games his knees will allow, but if he’s in the line-up for 125+ gp, he should provide great value at that price.
Also like that he spent last season in the AL East so he knows the parks/teams (well, 4 of them…sorry TB).
Seems like Tony Taters is giving the Orioles draft pick(s) and not the O’s giving him $$. I miss Tony already 🙁
…savings on Tony v. O’Neill = mo’ $$ for Burnes!! (Fingers double/triple-crossed!)
Aloha folks, have to say this off season is moving a little quicker than last year! Mahalo!
Mekkalekkahimekkahinyho
Mele Kalikimaka
привет :3
My free agent predictions sure are going well… ):
I’m 0 fer 12….
I was 1:1 (Nick Martinez). That was the only one I’ve gotten right so far. I suck at this! 🙁
…why?
Because Santander is leaving? Keep up
Kudos to Orioles Elias & FO for this move. As soon as they realized they were out of the Santander sweepstakes, they moved quickly to get the plan B guy before other GMs did.
More power to the O’s is scary.
Ikr!
@Cohen’s_Wallet
his 98 percentile barrel rate is going to be fun to watch. the Oriole pitch recognition development should help him trim the K rate a bit, and am glad that he had last year to help familiarize himself with AL East parks.
Certainly not perfect but a good value signing with a good ceiling.
Good for him, especially with that opt out. I was nervous given his injury history. He does strike out too much as well but his power if he stays on the field can’t be denied by any park or stadium.
It’s really a one year deal.
Reds – Orioles fans are hoping ….
Not necessarily given his injury history. That’s what makes it a great deal for O’Neill and it explains why he turned down the QO.
Dewey – He was never offered it.
The Sox didn’t extend a QO to O’Neill. That means Baltimore pays no penalty for this signing. And they can still offer him a QO at the end of the season if he performs well and opts out of his contract.
Yep, and he’s slight younger than Santander and has a higher WAR over the past 4 years.
People forget than Santander was injured quite a bit until 2022. He changed his training regimen and had three straight healthy years, after missing a lot of times with injuries after the Os picked him in the R5. The Os may be able to work with ONeill and improve his availability, which would do wonders for his own career. From a talent perspective he should not have reached a point where he’s worth far less than Anthony on the open market.
As a revenue sharer that won’t be hitting luxury tax penalties, an annual set of QO losses where the draft choices are at the end of round 1 and big payroll contenders drop first round picks by 10 slots (with the bonus pool losses), the Os can have 3-4 picks before Yankee, Met, Dodgers, etc first round picks every year. That’s a huge competitive advantage.
Thanks Fever. I just realized that. My bad (again…).
It’s all about timing, Santander gets paid because he was healthy and produced all year,
Solid signing for a fair price.
That’s a lot of money for spending parts of each season on the IL, says the disgruntled Cards fan.
31 Homers in 113 games is killing it. If he stays healthy he’s undervalued. If healthy all year he’s a 45-50 homer guy. Just have a good prospect in AAA ya want to look at while he’s hurt.
that’s a big if
Look at it like this 31 homers is above league average for the whole season. I’d take 113 games of that production at this price and just have a capable backup.
If not…the Orioles have Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser, and Heston Kerstad to work with, and Dylan Beavers/Samuel Basllio to work with.
Gravy.
Except there’s no way of knowing when he’ll be injured
Bum – You think 45-50 homers facing just lefties? Not gonna happen, and he sucked vs RHP.
Facts are he did hit 31 homers in 113 games and Camden Yards isn’t exactly a big ballpark in its own right. It isn’t as if he’s signing to San Diego or Seattle. He needs to cut down on strikeouts but even still numbers don’t lie, it still is a 45 home run pace.
It’s a perfect fit and the O’s have the luxury of spending on it right now. This frees up Kjerstad some. I don’t get why people keep saying he’s trade bait. Why would the O’s sell low on him right now? He’s a strong platoon candidate at worse who has hit at every level he’s ever played. Let the kid play.
The issue with Kjerstad is age and defense. They have Cowser who is two years younger and a Gold Glover on defense. Mullins and Bradfield in CF for years. Beavers is a very well rounded OF. 5 LH OF and all but Kjerstad very good on defense.
It’s just that other teams will value Kjerstad higher. He’s a MLB regular in other organizations. If he’s a centerpiece in a deal for a Crochet or Cease, why not offer him?
If you can get either one of those pitchers without giving up Mayo or Basallo, then sure, but then we still need a 4th OFr. No other prospect is ready and we only have Daz Cameron as an option right now.. which honestly could be OK but I don’t love it. I’m not a big believer in Beavers. Look at his stats at every level compared to Kjerstad’s. I like Fabian as a future 4th OFr. I think everyone is blowing the Kjerstad defense thing out proportion. Give him a chance to get comfortable. He’s not Cowser by any means defensively, but he needs to play.
kingbum;
How many of those HR’s did he hit over the short LF wall in Fenway?
His average home run distance is 414 feet, among the tops in the majors. Tell me you don’t know a player without saying it out loud.
How many of those HR’s did he hit over the short LF wall in Fenway?
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16 at home and 15 on the road, with a much better road OPS.
@samuel
ur a clown
Dylan Beavers, Jud Fabian and Coby Mayo raise their hands. A couple of IL stints by ONeill might be perfect opportunities.
Good move for the O’s!
He nearly quadrupled his aav from 2024.
31 homers in 113 games, I’d say he is still undervalued. Especially if he cuts down on strikeouts without sacrificing power. You take the strikeouts though on these kind of guys.
What makes you think he can cut his k rate? He’s 30 and always whiffed a ton.
Revolver…..Maybe he can’t but guys like T.O. you live with it. The problem with Joey Gallo was he eventually didn’t hit .200 and his power dropped.
Someone pull Dombrowski away from his retirement martini’s and wake him up. Not just to resign Hoffman either!!!!
Yeah, that’s what’s going on.
Very good move. Love this stove!
It is a very good move.
He’s not mentioned in the article but I gotta believe Mountcastle benefits here. No longer the lone rightside thumper in the line up. Takes pressure off of him to produce. This duo should be in bombs away mode from opening day. Plus, his presence should take pressure off that young gun Mayo.
Soto going to Boston now.
Nice pickup. Depends on why Santander signs for if this is a really good move or not.
Another one wrong. I had him headed to Minnesota.
I’m 10 for 10 Yorky! Lol.
Ignorant – Not sure if you saw my earlier post, I want to see Tim announce “SOB” as the winner!!
That is the player the Red Sox should have given a QO to.
Rumor – Umm…no, too much risk he’d take it.
If he takes it you have him for 1 year at 20 million and hope to trade him at the deadline if he doesn’t fit your plans. But if Pivetta didn’t take the QO I doubt O’Neil would of.
Would it have mattered? Don’t they need to sign a deal for $50m or more to get the draft pick compensation?
3 year $50 million. Otherwise known as what the Sox are offering for one year of Soto.
Let’s go, now put him in left resign Santander and some pitching let’s go O’s
Let’s goooooo
Nice. Hope it works out well.
Keith McPherson calling out heyman for being a boras bootlicker was much needed..
Soto isn’t holding up the market as some predicted.
BR has him at 5’11”. His biceps alone are 5’11”.
Bro to the 0! Hope he mashes and stays off the DL
Cards – If they are smart he will be a primary DH.
Slightly better Austin Hayes? Not a great Santander replacement imo.
More than slightly.
cooperhill;
No.
Austin plays above average D and is a superb baserunner when healthy.
Hays is perpetually injured. I don’t know much about O’Neil, to be fair, but I know too much about Hays. If T.O. spends more time on the I.L. than Hays I’d be astonished.
*Also Hays is massively streaky (much of which I suspect comes from constantly trying to play through injuries).
Oneill is a better player than Austin Hays. He doesn’t come with any less injury risk though. Arguably more but an upgrade when on the field.
Hays plays good D but is honestly not very fast and aging quickly. Also often injured. He’s an aggressive baserunner who cannot steal at all, so I’m not sure about “superb”. Lastly, his offensive approach is not great. Swings at everything and never walks. At least O’Neil walks and gets OB.
As expected.
Yet another guy that Pirates fans had circled on their wish lists. Oh well. Maybe they’ll bring Michael A Taylor and Jack Suwinski back
O’Neill signing a three-year deal for less money than a single year of Soto.
I think the Adames and O’Neill signing are teams trying to get out in front of Soto, fearing the “losers” will look to spend elsewhere.
Probably means Santander is gone. Decent replacement for the power with the LF wall coming in. Cheaper than Santander will be. Concerns are K rate and injury rate.
Rodney!
I’ll take those trade offs because we have other OF options and he gets on base.
Hot stove getting hotter!
Loving this signing, bro. We needed a legit lefty masher and O’Neill legit MASHES lefties!
O’Neil is going to smash 40 bombs with the wall coming in next season!
Santander going to get a big payday but from whom?
Santander is the fall back plan for the team that loses the Soto sweeps?
O’Neil is a consolation but a good sign, good power numbers and OBP.
If I was him I would seriously consider KC, SF, maybe BOS,PHI,AZ, StL, TOR, SEA, CLE even PIT
I’d stay away from NYY
I’m a Red Sox fan that guy strikes out too much never hitting a clutch other than maybe one time that I remember he does hit some long long home runs they’re nice to watch but other than that can’t field and is very shaky overrated thank God he left the Red Sox
Still a better fielder than Soto.
Eric – Ummmm…. no.
True, but not saying much @
O’Neill is a plus defender in left and right field.
Cards – Was.
He was a plus defender in right last year. Left field in Baltimore isn’t a gimmick to be learned like Fenway.
I’m a little surprised Baltimore isn’t focused on acquiring pitching.
Why?
Who says they aren’t?
$16M + per year?! Imagine what Hernandez, Santander and even Profar are going to get.
Will be interesting, O’Neil’s Crux is the K but capable of 40 HRs in a fully healthy season, and he can take a walk, has a good OBP.
He is a bargain in a sense if you believe Santander and Teoscar will bring 25M+ AAV.
This wasn’t necessary; Orioles have plenty of offense. This is really overkill. And then there is the Mariners last in OPS, last in RBI, last in offensive WAR, man can’t get a break.
They lost one of their best hitters and O’Neill plays the same position. Makes total sense. They’re not done.
The Os traded away 3 outfielders last year plus they stand to lose Santander. They badly needed a right handed bat in the outfield and they might not be done.
Great move, right handed hitter definitely needed!
Overkill. You mean like, Dodger-esque?
Overkill is what tamps down offensive lulls like the O’s had I the playoffs. I trust and believe that it’s not an “either/or” with bats or pitching but a “both/and”. O’Neil is a hard hitter that will give them some good AB vs lefties in a platoon. That’ll relieve some pressure for Mayo and Silent J to get comfortable and make the transition into the Bigs.
I really hope that they can swing a reunion/re-sign of Burnes. And pick up Soroka and someone else to come in as the 8th inning set up and occasional closer so Felix doesn’t have to come in back-to-back.
I think Seranthony is going to be the #2 closing option. Cano will handle the 8th. Maybe Soto is squared away now and would pick up an opportunity or 2. He looked pretty decent down the stretch.
Blue Jays couldn’t muster a hometown discount?
Now they’re just throwing around money stupidly
Holy guacamole!!! I just got another FA signing right after Adames to SF!
Wow! What’s Heyman’s cut on that one?
The Orioles vanishing offense in the postseason needs a veteran all-star in the middle of it. I’m not sure O’Neill will help much.
Agree. Get Gleyber Torres.
True, he is a downgrade defensively but offensively the dude sees the ball well at OPACY. Combine that with LF wall tweak and boom baby!
Who’s odd man out? Unfortunately, maybe Westburg? Rumors that that White Sox GM was willing to move Cease if Os offered Westy implies he’d do the same to move Crochet?
Bottom line. Spending FA money on Torees gets Orioles a TOR guy on the cheap and with control?
Hopefully he’ll DH to keep him playing, otherwise he’ll only play around 100 games/ season
Lol O’Neil will hit like 50 home runs playing in Camden
Odd signing. The Os, I thought had hitters just waiting for the opportunity. Pitching? Different story. Looks like overpay but doesn’t every signing seem that way?
Cream and the clear, he’ll be fine.
Are you insinuating something ?
Finally, hopefully, we have only just begun!
Once Atkins and jays put all their eggs in a dream and let the rest of the market pass him by.
Great signing by the O’s
I thought the orioles were stacked with can’t miss hitting prospects ready for big leagues
Most of them are lefty hitters and our best righty hitting prospect (Coby Mayo) still needs a bit more AAA seasoning.
I garentee O’Neill outperforms Willy Adames for the next 3 years. This was a steal of a deal for the Orioles
Would love to take you up on that.
Does O’Neill play SS, a much more challenging position? Apples to Oranges, baby.
Good golly, 3/49.5 mil ?! Talk about a steal. Although if he has a good year he’ll just opt out and hit the freedom trail again next year looking for a more lucrative deal. Still, a low risk deal for Baltimore who could really help. I don’t know much about O’Neill as an all around player except he seems to be a guy who will get hot and hit a ton of home runs for a few weeks and then for some reason, like flipping a switch, he’ll go cold for a while. Funny how that works. A player can be red hot and then hit a cold streak for no apparent reason where they struggle and will try or do anything to get it back. Which they usually do sooner or later. One of life’s great mysteries. 🙂
Killer of Ignorance;
O’Neill has always been a hot-and-cold player, along with being injured.
In short: He’s undependable.
Played in the majors 7 years. Only played over 100 games in a season twice: 138 in 2021 and 113 last year.
I like the O’s FO. But some of the moves they’ve been making recently seem like a stretch. Am sure they see things I don’t, and where their coaching staff can work with some players. Time will tell.
Good signing but what about a pitcher?
Santander has the same career ba,but O’Neil has higher OBP.
We needed a righty corner OF bat to beat up on lefties and Mr. O’Neill certainly fits that bill. Nice to see the purse springs loosen a bit too.
Welcome to Birdland, Tyler!
Great match with Heston to cover the loss of Santa. Now pitching
The ball explodes off his bat!
With the Orioles moving in the wall at Camden Yards, you get 120-130 games out of O’Neil and he’s going to hit 35-40 bombs next season.
That depends on his health. Can’t hit that many if he’s on the IL.
Good for the O’s. They know they have the young core, and a limited time frame to really contend and win. 3 years is about right before the selling begins.
Not a knock on the O’s but they can’t compete with the Mega-Payroll teams in their division and MLB.. But they sure do have the talent….which will become expensive talent.
I hope Tyler can play in more than half those games during the next years. Gotta stay on the field. Buy better bubble wrap, Tyler.
New ownership for the O’s so far is willing spend so far.
Overrated.
Compared to what?
Creature: whisky.
The word “overrated” is the quicksand of arguments.
It’s not, though. We all understand “overrated,” it’s just a tired trick of debate to assume the role of not understanding common words.
By current MLB financial standards, this strikes me as a pretty decent risk/reward proposition for the O’s.
Great signing for a guy who will end up on the IL 4 times and be lucky to play 100 games. Hard to believe the O’s would make this type of investment and let Santander walk!
Man, if this is what this guy gets, Soto, etc. can absolutely demand $45M+ holy moly.
What a favorable contract for a player like him who’s had his share of injuries and inconsistency. $50 million floor with a chance at more if he plays well again. Great line-up and environment for another big season and potential opt out.
This contract on a per game basis is the equivalent to a player who plays 155-162 games per year getting paid $21 million per year for 3 years. The over under will be 360 games for $49.5 Million.
He’s a fun guy to watch when he’s healthy. His price per game is a bit high but if he stays healthy this will turn out good for BAL. If he gets hurt at inopportune times like in the past, you’ll be without one of your better hitters at critical points in the season.
Cheap, strikes out a lot, hits home runs and has a low on base percentage he’s perfect for the Orioles.
if you’re going to the the @spiritoftruth, let’s not exaggerate his weaknesses, he certainly has plenty but a very impressive 87 percentile walk rate is where he was last year although an odd juxtaposition to the high K%
makes you wonder what this guy’s career would have been both offensively and defensively without the history of injury. his sprint speed was ridiculous at the beginning of his career before the Legos started to loosen.
wonder what effect the change of training staff in Baltimore will have on trying to tighten up the Legos to keep him on the field.
A step down from Santander, but good move if the orioles make a big pitching move or two
Affordable = Orioles
@Carter
we’ll see. maybe it will be more helpful to consider what’s going on now with Rubenstein’s group versus historical Baltimore ownership.
that having been said, signing another Eddie Gaedel would really be fun. let’s see the AL East try and hit that strike zone.
Pirates should have made this move.. Outfield would be very strong offensively had they added him. Christian Walker still possible but he scares me for some reason. Kinda old, better first basemen fell off before him, tough to expect more than 2 good years from him.
“The Orioles have a deep position player mix that can help to cover for O’Neill when he’s injured…”
That says it all. He’s worth the money if he plays a full season, but not that money if he plays 75-100 games a season
Nice win,win….. possibly a career year on the way, then he exercises the option and trots……. so it’s a1 year rental with potentially sweet perks
The article states, “All four of those players [Cowser, Mullins, Kjerstad and O’Hearn] are left-handed hitters, and Cowser’s 89 wRC+ against lefties last year was the highest market among the quartet.”
Actually, Kjerstad had a 135 wRC+ against lefties last year.
Against lefties last year:
Kjerstad: .375/.375/.433 (.813 OPS)
Cowser: .224/.281/.381 (.661 OPS)
O’Hearn: .262/.295/.310 (.605 OPS)
Mullins: .196/.228/.278 (.506 OPS)
True statement but 16 Abs is pretty meaningless.
38% K rate last season(159 Ks in 411 ABs) and crappy defense.
Elias, you’re killing’ me!
Not how you calculate a K rate.
PA an re your denominator. AB’s excludes every at bat that he took a walk, hit a sac fly, or got hit by a pitch.
His true K rate was 33% but if you’re shielding him from tougher righties than that number is gonna go south.
Thanks for the clarification…let us now celebrate only striking out 33% of the time
From the age of 9 until the age of 41, with no baseball and some softball between the ages of 18 and 33, my K rate was a whopping 50%, but that includes only my baseball plate ppearances. Maybe THAT’S why I was a pitcher. Oof.
Luckily, plenty of teams don’t have to wait for the Soto Sweepstakes to be over. Some good action on the free agent market going on instead. Not a bad hot stove, can’t bake a potato yet, but can easily bake a cake.
Thats a lot of cabbage on an often injured high K guy but when healthy you can’t argue with the power.
Thirty one HR and 61 RBI’s. Thirty RBI’s in all those subsequent at bats. Guy was an automatic out with RISP. Watch “Trouble with the Curve (Sliders in the dirt).”.
Signed: Sox fan
Guy was an automatic out with RISP.
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He had an ..866 OPS with RISP last year, with an incredible 8 HRs in only 91 ABs.
I wonder just talking for the price tag what would Yankees fans rather have Willy Adames ,Tyler O’Neil and left over cash to spend , or jaun soto ?
possible torn ligaments in right hand after signing event. He should’ve never left the Bubble.
Still time to heal by Spring Training
Orioles fans, I’m curious..
Would something like Cease, Wandy Peralta, plus a prospect or two for Mayo and Suarez work?