The Opener: Draft Lottery, Sasaki, Kelly

As the Winter Meetings continue, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. 2025 Draft Lottery:

The primary highlight of Day 2 of the Winter Meetings today figures to be the 2025 draft lottery, which is scheduled to take place at 4:30pm CT this afternoon. The top six spots in next year’s draft will be decided by tonight’s lottery. The Rockies and Marlins are tied for the best odds at landing this year’s top pick with a 22.45% chance, while the Angels (17.96%) and Nationals (10.2%) are the only other teams with at least a 10% chance of landing the first overall pick. That’s not to say it’s impossible for another team to land it, however; the Guardians did so just last year despite just a 2% chance of their name being selected for the top pick. Every team that missed the playoffs in 2024 except for the Athletics and White Sox are eligible for tonight’s lottery.

2. Sasaki officially posted:

The long-awaited posting of NPB right-hander Roki Sasaki finally arrived yesterday, kicking off a 45-day window where he’ll be able to negotiate with MLB teams. Although clubs are now able to negotiate with Sasaki, it’s widely expected that he won’t actually sign with a club for quite some time. As an international player under the age of 25, Sasaki is considered an amateur by MLB and therefore subject to the league’s restrictions on international amateurs. That not only means that the righty can only sign for whatever teams are willing to offer him from their international bonus pools, but also that he’ll be ineligible to sign between December 15, when the 2024 international signing window closes, and January 15, when the 2025 international signing window opens.

Reporting to this point has suggested that Sasaki intends to sign during the 2025 period, meaning that the majority of his posting window will be occupied by time during which he’ll be able to meet and negotiate with teams but not actually be eligible to put pen to paper. Even so, the long-awaited free agency of a rare star-caliber talent for whom money won’t be the deciding factor should make for one of the more interest storylines of the offseason going forward, as all 30 clubs and their fans can at least theoretically dream on Sasaki choosing to sign with them.

3. Cubs, Kelly nearing deal?

Yesterday afternoon, reports emerged that the Cubs and free agent catcher Carson Kelly were close to an agreement on a deal. There’s been no word of progress on a deal since then, but it would be quite unusual for a deal to reach that stage and be reported on without eventually coming to fruition. It’s possible that more information regarding where things stand between the Cubs and Kelly will become available as soon as today, though it wouldn’t be a shock if the deal didn’t become official for a few days after an agreement is reached and terms are reported. That’s been the case with several free agents this winter, including Chicago’s own two-year deal with southpaw Matthew Boyd that was made official over the weekend.