Alek Manoah Targeting August Return To Blue Jays

After a brutal 2023 season, right-hander Alek Manoah returned to the Blue Jays’ rotation in early May with the hope of reestablishing himself as one of the game’s top young arms. Unfortunately, that goal didn’t even last a month as Manoah was sidelined after just five starts and wound up undergoing Tommy John surgery in early June. The righty’s timetable for return to the mound has been unclear since then, but recently Manoah himself provided an update to Mike Wilner of the Toronto Star as part of an interview for the Star’s “Deep Left Field” baseball podcast. During the interview, Manoah identified August as his target for a return to action.

“…to go be a deadline acquisition for the Toronto Blue Jays and just help as much as I can over the final two months of the season, that’s what I’m striving for,” Manoah said on the podcast. “I’m striving to get bullpens in March, to get to live BPs in June, and then get some rehabs going and hopefully be in a position to help this team down the stretch.”

That timeline would have Manoah returning to the mound in Toronto roughly fourteen months after first going under the knife. That’s hardly an atypical timeline for a pitcher in the right-hander’s situation given that rehabbing Tommy John surgery usually takes between 12 and 18 months, though Manoah acknowledged that “bumps in the road” down the line could complicate or delay the ideal timetable he laid out.

Of course, even a healthy return to the mound in early August would come with questions. The right-hander was last healthy and effective back in 2022, when he posted a sterling 2.24 ERA in 196 2/3 innings of work for the Jays en route to a third-place finish in AL Cy Young award voting and the first All-Star appearance of his career. That fantastic performance seemed to indicate that Manoah was ticketed for long-term success at the front of Toronto’s rotation, but the 2023 season threw that plan off the rails as he struggled to a 5.87 ERA with a 6.01 FIP in 19 starts and spent time in the minor leagues due to his poor performance.

Manoah’s return to the Jays’ rotation last May was something of a mixed bag. His 3.70 ERA across five starts was solid enough, while his 25.2% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were essentially in line with his numbers from 2021 and ’22. With that being said, Manoah was getting crushed when batters did make contact with his pitches. He surrendered five homers in just 24 1/3 innings of work last year and posted a ghastly 10.8% barrel rate. That came in a sample size of just 65 batted balls, of course, and given the fact that Manoah underwent UCL surgery shortly thereafter it’s fair to question how indicative that performance will be of his abilities when he returns to the mound. It’s certainly far from impossible to imagine Manoah, still just 27, re-establishing himself as a quality rotation piece once he’s put rehab behind him and resumed pitching.

In the meantime, however, the Jays are constructing their 2025 rotation without expecting him to be a major part of the equation. As things stand, veterans Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Chris Bassitt stand as a trio of proven arms while Bowden Francis flashed high-end results late in the 2024 season. Yariel Rodríguez currently figures to round out the group with Jake Bloss available as a depth option at Triple-A. Right-hander Jeff Hoffman signed with the club on a three-year deal that guarantees him $33MM late last week, but despite speculation throughout the winter he could look to pitch out of the rotation with his next club the Jays have indicated they’ll be using him in the bullpen.

It’s a decent rotation mix even without Hoffman involved, but there’s clearly room for improvement. Gausman endured the worst season he’s had since breaking out during the 2020 campaign last year; he pitched to a 3.82 ERA (105 ERA+) with 21.4% strikeout rate that was down nearly ten points from the year prior. Berrios pitched to mid-rotation results last year but also had troubling peripherals, including a 19.5% strikeout rate and a 4.72 FIP. Both of those numbers suggest Berrios may profile more as a back-of-the-rotation arm if he can’t bounce back going forward, and that’s likely where Bassitt fits best as well after he posted a below-average 4.16 ERA in his age-35 season last year.

Given all the questions surrounding a rotation that is poised to enter 2025 hoping for Gausman to rebound and Francis to prove he’s capable of pitching at an above-average level over the course of a full season as a starter, it’s hardly a surprise that the club has been connected to a number of starters in free agency this winter. Both Corbin Burnes and Max Fried already landed elsewhere despite involvement from Toronto in both markets, but Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta remain available as potential upgrades the club has reported interest in.