As Spring Training gets underway, teams routinely find themselves dealing with unfortunate surprise injuries that can force a change in plans. That may prove to have been the case for the Cubs when presumed fifth starter Javier Assad was diagnosed with an oblique issue at the outset of camp. Given that the strain Assad is reportedly suffering from is mild, he hasn’t been ruled out for Opening Day. With that being said, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma discussed the club’s rotation outlook yesterday and suggested that the Cubs may not push Assad to be ready for Opening Day.
If Assad were to open the season on the injured list, that would leave the door wide open for another player to take that final rotation spot, and even if he’s healthy Assad seems to be less firmly locked into the rotation than Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, or Matthew Boyd. Fortunately for the Cubs, they have the starting pitching depth necessary to cover for Assad if he’s injured and consider other options even in the event that he’s healthy. Though they’ll only need two starting pitchers for their two-game set against the Dodgers in Tokyo that predates the normal start of the regular season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cubs wanted to have a good idea of what their rotation was going to look like entering that first series of the year.
If he’s healthy, Assad remains easy to bet on for the job. After all, the right-hander delivered 29 solid starts for the Cubs in 2024, pitching to a 3.73 ERA in 147 innings of work. Those are fairly impressive numbers for a back-end starter, but it’s worth noting they also come with notable red flags: Assad wore down badly throughout the year after a hot start, with a 4.84 ERA from June onward and an ugly 6.86 ERA down the stretch in September last year. In addition to those deep struggles later in the season, the right-hander also posted lackluster peripherals with a 4.64 FIP, a strikeout rate of just 19.4%, and a hefty 9.9% walk rate. That’s one of the 10 worst seasons by K-BB% and one of the 15 worst seasons by FIP in all of baseball last year among pitchers with as many innings as Assad.
Should Assad’s combination of spring injuries and second-half struggles give the Cubs enough pause to turn to someone else on Opening Day, it’s possible that offseason addition Colin Rea could be the first to get the call. Rea, 34, signed with the Cubs last month on a one-year, $5MM pact. The righty had a brief stint with the Cubs during the shortened 2020 season, but spend the past two seasons in Milwaukee as a back-end starter for the Brewers. The right-hander posted a 4.40 ERA and 4.82 FIP in 58 appearances over the past two seasons, 42 of which were starts.
Rea posted a higher FIP (4.75) and a lower strikeout rate (18.9%) than even Assad did last year, but he made up for that gap in effectiveness with volume. Rea posted 167 2/3 innings of work for the Brewers last year between 27 starts and five relief appearances, and showed the ability to pitch deep into games as he did so with 19 starts lasting longer than five innings, 11 of which went at least six and five of which saw him pitch into the seventh inning. That ability to pitch into the seventh sets Rea apart from his competitors, as all of the other pitchers mentioned who started an MLB game in the majors last year combined for just two seven-inning starts in 2024. Rea is also notable as the only pitcher discussed here who is both already on the 40-man roster and cannot be optioned to the minor leagues, meaning he’s all but assured a spot in either the Opening Day rotation or bullpen so long as he’s healthy.
While Assad and Rea may be the frontrunners for the job, there are certainly other options worth considering. Chief among those may be right-hander Ben Brown, who stepped into a rotation role with the Cubs early last year and looked good doing so. Brown’s rookie campaign saw him post a 3.58 ERA and 3.11 FIP with an excellent 28.8% strikeout rate. Those are fantastic numbers for any pitcher, but it’s particularly impressive for a 24-year-old getting his feet wet in the majors for the first time.
Unfortunately, Brown’s debut season was limited to just 55 1/3 innings in total, as he was shut down in June due to what Sharma reports turned out to be an osteoma, which is a benign tumor made of bone growing on an existing piece of bone. Brown appears to be healthy and ready to go for the 2025 season and is likely the pitcher with the highest upside the Cubs could turn to for their final rotation job, but his lack of big league experience and long layoff could make the club hesitant to immediately plug him into the rotation.
Another legitimate contender for the role could be southpaw Jordan Wicks, the club’s first-rounder from the 2021 draft and a former top-100 prospect. Wicks has yet to find success at the big league level in 80 2/3 innings of work across 18 appearances (17 starts), with a 5.02 ERA and a nearly matching 5.05 FIP. Like Brown, Wicks also missed much of the 2024 season due to injuries which, in his case, consisted of forearm and oblique issues. That combination of big league struggles and injury history seem to suggest the 25-year-old might be best suited to start the season at Triple-A, but his peripheral numbers were quite strong last year before he got bit by the injury bug as demonstrated by his 25.9% strikeout rate against an 8.3% walk rate in five starts before hitting the IL for the first time.
The aforementioned quartet aren’t the only plausible options, but they’re by far the most likely. Top prospect Cade Horton is a potential front-of-the-rotation arm who would be an exciting addition to the club’s staff, but he suffered a lost season in 2024 due to a subscapularis strain and is all but certain to get more reps in at Triple-A before making the jump to the majors. Non-roster invitees Brad Keller and Chris Flexen are veteran depth pieces who have served as viable back-end starters in recent years, but Keller appears to be getting work in as a reliever this spring while Flexen offers a similar profile to Rea but with lesser results and no guaranteed contract. Nate Pearson was discussed as a potential starting option over the offseason but has success in relief with the Cubs last year pitched just one inning of relief in his first spring appearance.
Who do MLBTR readers think the Cubs will turn to in order to round out the rotation? Will Assad return healthy and effective from his oblique issue to lock down the role? Will the club prioritize Rea due to volume and roster considerations, or go with a higher-upside pitcher like Brown or perhaps Wicks? Have your say in the poll below:
whoever pitches the best
That’s not necessarily true.
I think it will be Assad. Not cause he pitched better, but because they can send Brown and Wicks,etc, to Iowa and manage there innings and development there.
’cause
Were gonna have a Rea good time.
Assad is hurt and the Cubs appear to have decided to not push him to be ready by opening day. He is out.
Rea is thoroughly meh and I expect him to revert to his pre-Brewers level of performance. He is out.
Wicks is just plain bad to go along with forearm issues and we know what that portends.
Brown is the choice for OD, but somehow I think the player that gets the majority of time in the #5 slot during the entire season was not named in the poll.
Rea was signed to give these other kids some time to heal and be ready. I say he starts and eventually moves to the pen or gets traded.
I’m not sure I’m getting why the Cubs went out & acquired Tucker to go all in if they are starting this season with this rotation. There’s no way you should be trading any top prospects in the deal if you don’t have an extension lined up. As good as Tucker is & hopefully will be for the Cubs this year, I have a bad feeling as a Cubs fan that it’s one & done.
Maybe at the very least it’ll show we will need a clear cut top bat to anchor the offense every year but that should be a given if you have followed the Cubs. Very shaky faith in this regime right now. Still wondering why Happ & Suzuki have no trade clauses in the first place when moving either or both could have potentially bolstered the rotation.
Stroman!!!! Get it done now!
Hope not.
Oh God!
no no no no no
Rae has the inside edge because he’s the only one on the mix that doesn’t have options. To start the season though, the Cubs are going to go Imanaga/Steele/Imanaga/Steele so their fifth starter will be Taillon.
He who spins the ball best will get that opportunity
Cubs should have used some prospect capital for another starter.
If they’d hand the job to Brown he’d end up being their second best starter by the end of the season.
Not sure about second best but maybe a solid number three.
That looks like a playoff rotation if their current locked in 4 are their 2-3-4-5 pitchers. Feels like they still need an ace. Maybe Ricketts can open the wallet a little bit more and let them work out something with San Diego for Cease. He might not be the ace-est ace that ever aced but he’s still a top 10 starter.
Voted for Ben Brown but anyone but Colin Rea will do just fine.
I want it to be Brown. But since the question is who we think it will be, gotta go with Rea because they paid him and they’ll want to ease in everyone else.
Agree. Has to be Rea but should be Brown.
Underrated rotation, underrated team really holy cow I was unfamiliar with how well the starters actually performed last year. I don’t think Milwaukee are such easy favorites like some believe.
The Cubs rotation was aided greatly by how pitcher friendly Wrigley was last season.
Steele and Imanaga are a pretty good 1-2 but Taillon pitched like a fifth starter on the road, Boyd only had a handful of starts and Assad gave up a ton of base runners. Brown looked really good last season both as a starter and a reliever, Rae was the most pointless signing the Cubs made.
Cubs should have signed one of the TOR arms and attempted to get out from Taillon’s contract while there was still some illusion of him being better than he is. Then held an open competition between Brown, Wicks, Pearson and Assad for the fifth spot. At least that is my opinion.
I think it will be StroMe when the Yankees pay down most of his contract.
Should be Assad, but it’ll be Rea.. hoping for big things out of Ben Brown this year.
Cade Horton
Why is it looking like the cubs will tie a record for the most different starters used in a season.
There are better options still on the FA market, but they’re only looking for a fill-in for Assad to start the season, so my vote goes to Brown. Rea isn’t a bounce back candidate because he’s never done anything to begin with. Not real hot on bringing Stroman back because he doesn’t want to work out of the pen, so when Assad is healthy what do they do with Stroman?
If Stroman were a team player and was willing to be a swingman, Yankees would have been able to trade him by now. Stroman being adamant to stay a starter is hurting his market, but that’s Boone’s problem…
Better question should be who will start at 3rd when season opens now that Shaw out and hoyer have let go madrigal, parades, smith and candelario leaving them with big big void at 3rd.
Smith was not ready. Madrigal already out, maybe forever in the Big Apple. Candelario isn’t that great. However I agree with you about Paredes. What’s more baffling about him being included in the trade was that Nico is hurt and Paredes is good at both second and third.
Still waiting on the best farm system in the whole wide world to do something. So far it’s just Cubbie Propaganda and bad baseball.
Well if prospects don’t pan out on the field they could help bus tables at the Ricketsville Dave and Busters arcade. Those quarter machines don’t empty themselves. Think how a young Tom Cruise made himself useful in Cocktail. Kokomo
Mike Bielicki. Ray Burris. Bill Bonham. Paul Reuschel.
I hope it’s Ben Brown, we need some who throws fast in the rotation
We don’t know much about the extent of Shaw being out but why aren’t the cubs interested in arenado and/or iglesias for 3rd because both are available. What the currently have option wise in Berti, workman, brujan far from enough and turner not even a fit.
Trevor Bauer