Javier Assad

Javier Assad Shut Down With Grade 2 Oblique Strain

By Darragh McDonald | April 25, 2025 at 1:00pm CDT

Cubs manager Craig Counsell provided Jordan Bastian of MLB.com an update today on injured right-hander Javier Assad. Assad recently suffered a Grade 2 strain of his left oblique and will be shut down. Counsell didn’t provide a specific timeline but even moderate strains can lead to absences of weeks or even months, so Assad won’t be returning to the club in the near term.

It’s an unfortunate blow for Assad and the Cubs. The right-hander’s battle with this oblique problem goes back months now. Way back in early February, just as camp opened, it was reported that he was experiencing some side tightness. He was eventually diagnosed with a mild strain of his left oblique and started the season on the 15-day injured list.

Not too long ago, he seemed on track for a fairly quick return. He started a rehab assignment by tossing 3 1/3 innings for Triple-A Iowa on April 15th. But in his second rehab outing, on April 22nd, he experienced some renewed soreness after tossing four innings in that game. Earlier this week, Counsell said that Assad would be heading to Chicago for some further tests, which apparently found this strain.

Prior to this setback, he seemed on the cusp of a return to the big league team. That timing would have worked out well for the Cubs, as they recently lost Justin Steele to UCL surgery. Instead, the Cubs will have to proceed without Steele or Assad for at least a few weeks.

Swingman Colin Rea stepped up take a rotation spot when Steele hit the IL. His first start saw him go 3 2/3 against the Dodgers, allowing one run. He then went 4 2/3 against the Diamondbacks, again allowing just one earned run. He got up to 69 pitches in that latter start, so he’s close to fully stretched out at this point.

As of a few weeks ago, it seemed likely that Assad was going to bump Rea back to a long relief role. Now that Assad is going to stay on the shelf a while longer, that will presumably allow Rea to hold a rotation job for the foreseeable future. The other four spots are taken by Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Ben Brown.

It’s less than ideal but the Cubs seem to be in a decent position to weather these injuries. Imanaga and Boyd both have ERAs under 3.00 so far, while Taillon and Brown are both under 5.00. As mentioned, Rea has only allowed one earned run in each of his two starts. Should a need for another starter arise, the Cubs have a couple of former first-round picks in Iowa. Jordan Wicks hasn’t clicked in the majors yet but is a former top prospect. Cade Horton hasn’t yet cracked the majors but is one of the top pitching prospects in the league and has a 1.06 Triple-A ERA this year. They also have veteran Chris Flexen at Iowa on a minor league deal and he has an ERA of 0.40 through four starts.

It was reported last week that the club planned to use internal options to cover for Steele’s absence. Those plans surely included Assad but this new injury likely won’t change the short-term goals. There will surely be intriguing pitching options available at the trade deadline but they’re harder to get now. While some clubs will eventually pivot into sell mode, most are still clinging to hopes of contention at this point. A free agent like Spencer Turnbull wouldn’t provide any immediate help, as he would need a few weeks of ramping up after missing spring training.

The Cubs will likely proceed with their current rotation, though the plans could perhaps be changed by future injuries or one of the guys in Iowa forcing their way into the picture. Assad could be back in the mix later in the year but the Cubs would also be justified in being cautious in the wake of this setback.

Photo courtesy of Kyle Ross, Imagn Images

Cubs Notes: Assad, Pressly, Morgan

By Steve Adams | April 24, 2025 at 1:00pm CDT

The Cubs’ pitching staff has been hammered by injuries early in the season, which has served to undercut what’s been an outstanding offense. Justin Steele’s season is already over thanks to UCL surgery, and right-hander Javier Assad has yet to pitch in 2025 due to an oblique strain. The hope had been that Assad would be able to return early next month after beginning a rehab assignment in mid-April, but he exited his most recent rehab start while clutching his side an experiencing obvious discomfort.

Cubs skipper Craig Counsell told the team’s beat last night that Assad was traveling back to Chicago to be reexamined in the wake of that apparent setback (via Jordan Bastian of MLB.com). There’s no further update at this time, but it seems fair to expect the renewed discomfort will push Assad’s 2025 debut back further than originally hoped.

The 27-year-old Assad pitched a career-high 147 innings in the majors last year, starting 29 games for the Cubs and logging a solid 3.73 ERA. He’s been a productive member of the staff both in a relief and rotation capacity since his 2022 debut. Metrics like FIP (4.49) and SIERA (4.66) are far more bearish than his 3.40 ERA, due primarily to middling strikeout and walk rates of 19.8% and 9.9%.

Even if there’s some likely regression in store, however, Assad is clearly a big league-caliber arm who could hold down an important spot in the middle or at the back of Chicago’s rotation. His setback likely extends right-hander Colin Rea’s run in the rotation. The veteran swingman has proven to be an important offseason pickup thus far, tossing 13 2/3 innings and holding opponents to a pair of runs on 14 hits and a walk with a dozen strikeouts. Rea has made two starts, lasting 3 2/3 innings his first time out and 4 2/3 innings in his second. He held potent Dodgers and D-backs lineups to one run in each of those starts and out to be stretched out enough to pitch five to six innings in his next appearance.

The rotation has generally fared well despite those injuries (3.50 ERA), but the Cubs’ bullpen has been a true weak point in 2025. Chicago relievers rank 27th in the majors with a 5.17 earned run average — a struggle that’s compounded by the fact that the Cubs’ bullpen also ranks fifth in MLB with 94 innings pitched. The Cubs will only lean on their bullpen all the more heavily in the wake of a season-ending injury to top starter Justin Steele, who averaged nearly six innings per start from 2023-24.

Part of the bullpen’s struggle has been a shaky performance from newly acquired closer Ryan Pressly. The longtime Astros hurler has a sharp-looking 2.45 ERA in his first 11 innings with the Cubs, but he’s sitting on a career-worst 10.6% strikeout rate that checks in lower than his 12.8% walk rate. That’s not a sustainable recipe for success.

Pressly has been pitching at less than 100% this season, however. Counsell revealed last night that Pressly had his right knee drained yesterday and was unavailable for a save situation that arose (link via Patrick Mooney of The Athletic). Sophomore reliever Porter Hodge stepped up and nailed down a victory over the Dodgers that pushed Chicago’s record to 16-10 and widened their division lead to 2.5 games.

Despite the ominous update on Pressly’s knee, Counsell added that the team hopes the 36-year-old veteran will be available beginning with this weekend’s series against the Phillies. Pressly was down yesterday, and the Cubs have an off-day today, so he’ll have a few days to rest that ailing knee. In addition to shaky command, Pressly is giving up hard-contact at career-worst rates and has shown a career-low 93.3 mph average velocity on his heater. His 6.4% swinging-strike rate is the eighth-worst among the 276 MLB pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched in 2025.

Pressly isn’t the only ailing Cubs reliever. Right-hander Eli Morgan, acquired from the Guardians over the winter, is already on the 15-day injured list after stumbling to a 12.27 ERA in his first seven appearances with his new team. He’d originally been diagnosed with an elbow impingement, but Counsell revealed last night (via Bastian) that Morgan won’t throw at all for two to three weeks due to an inflamed ulnar nerve in his right arm. There’s no indication right now that surgery is a consideration, but several players (e.g. Michael Fulmer, Steven Matz) have ultimately required an operation when dealing with ulnar neuritis in the past.

Morgan, 28, had a nice run with Cleveland from 2022-24, pitching 176 innings with a 3.27 ERA, a 25.1% strikeout rate and a 6.6% walk rate. His strikeout rate dipped considerably in 2024, however, and he spent time on the injured list due to both shoulder and elbow inflammation. He’ll be reevaluated after this shutdown period, but for the time being there’s no concrete timetable on when he might be able to return.

NL Central Notes: Gorman, Reynolds, Cubs

By Mark Polishuk | April 5, 2025 at 1:15pm CDT

The Cardinals placed Nolan Gorman on the 10-day injured list yesterday (retroactive to April 2), and called up infielder Thomas Saggese from Triple-A in the corresponding roster move. Gorman is suffering from a right hamstring strain that he suffered while running the bases in last Tuesday’s game, though Gorman told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other reporters that the strain is “super-mild.” While the injury prevents Gorman from fielding at the moment, he is still able to hit and catch, so he’ll be able to continue with baseball activities while on the IL.

Gorman has delivered four hits (including a homer and a double) in his first nine plate appearances of the season, as he enters what might be a pivot point in his young career. The former top prospect has shown flashes of his potential over his first three MLB seasons, but his production trailed off badly in 2024, to the point that the Cards optioned Gorman to Triple-A last August. The crowded nature of the Cards lineup also means that Gorman isn’t getting everyday playing time, and he’ll have to keep hitting in order to carve out more of a regular role. Missing time to an injury won’t help these endeavors, but it seems like Gorman might just miss the minimum 10 days.

Javier Assad Ruled Out For Opening Day

By Nick Deeds | March 1, 2025 at 4:16pm CDT

Cubs right-hander Javier Assad has been sidelined this spring due to oblique soreness, and 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine relays this afternoon that the righty won’t be ready to pitch in time for either the Tokyo Series on March 18 or the club’s stateside opener against the Diamondbacks on March 27. Presumably, the Cubs will place him on the injured list to open the season, leaving him out of action for at least the beginning of April.

Assad, 27, has found plenty of success over three seasons in the majors with Chicago despite questionable peripherals. The right-hander served in a part-time swing role for the Cubs in both the 2022 and ’23 seasons, posting a 3.06 ERA (139 ERA+) in 147 innings of work across 41 appearances (18 starts) during that two-year stretch. That excellent production came in spite of underlying numbers that were far less impressive. Assad walked 9.9% of his opponents while striking out just 20.2% of them over those first two seasons, and his 44.7% groundball rate was strong but not outstanding. That left him with a 4.34 FIP and a 4.59 SIERA over those two years, both of which painted him as a below average pitcher despite his above-average results.

When the right-hander was handed an Opening Day rotation spot by the Cubs last year, it was fair to wonder whether those lackluster peripherals would come back to bite him. He once again managed to defy the underlying metrics in 2024, however, posting a 3.73 ERA (107 ERA+) despite a 4.64 FIP and 4.72 SIERA. His strikeout, walk, and groundball rates were largely unchanged from the prior two seasons, but despite that he still posted the numbers of a solid back-end start across 147 innings and 29 starts. His 4.38 ERA and 4.80 FIP after the All-Star break last year stuck out as a potential cause for concern, but after an offseason that saw the club focus more on upgrading its lineup and bullpen rather than the rotation Assad once again figured to feature in the club’s starting five to open the 2025 season.

Those plans will have to be put on hold for now, however, as Assad is only just beginning to work his way back to the mound after being sidelined for all of last month by an oblique strain. Levine writes that the Cubs hope he’ll be able to proceed to throwing a bullpen session next week, but even that seems up in the air. Given the uncertainty surrounding Assad’s status, it’s hardly a surprise that the Cubs decided to formally pull the plug on him as an Opening Day possibility and begin exploring other options to fill out the rotation in earnest.

Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele front Chicago’s rotation and are slated to start the club’s two-game series against the Dodgers in Tokyo. Meanwhile, veterans Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd make up the middle of the Cubs’ rotation after Chicago added Boyd on a two-year deal back in December. With Assad no longer an option for the fifth starter job, it seems likely that the gig could fall to veteran swing man Colin Rea. Rea, 34, posted a 4.40 ERA (96 ERA+) and 4.82 FIP in 58 appearances (49 starts) with Milwaukee over the past two years. He figures to be on the Opening Day roster so long as he’s healthy, though he does have ample experience pitching in relief as well.

The possibility that Rea could be used as a long reliever rather than a starter leaves the door open for one of the Cubs’ other potential starting options to grab the fifth starter job. Right-hander Ben Brown dazzled in his rookie season with a 3.58 ERA and 3.11 FIP in 55 1/3 innings of work, and while he was sidelined by an osteoma on his neck for the entire second half last year he now appears to be fully healthy. Jordan Wicks struggled through an injury-marred campaign in 2024 but is a recent top-100 prospect with plenty of upside.

Veteran rotation arms Chris Flexen and Brad Keller are both in camp as non-roster invitees, and it’s possible either could factor into the competition for the fifth starter job alongside Rea, Brown, and Wicks. One player who is unlikely to compete for the job is top pitching prospect Cade Horton, who is healthy this spring after what amounted to a lost season in 2024 but still has minimal experience at the Triple-A level under his belt. Whoever earns the fifth starter job could theoretically pitch themselves into a more permanent job that lasts even beyond Assad’s upcoming IL stint, given that the 27-year-old has both ample bullpen experience and minor league options remaining.

Poll: Who Will Be The Cubs’ Fifth Starter?

By Nick Deeds | February 26, 2025 at 2:02pm CDT

As Spring Training gets underway, teams routinely find themselves dealing with unfortunate surprise injuries that can force a change in plans. That may prove to have been the case for the Cubs when presumed fifth starter Javier Assad was diagnosed with an oblique issue at the outset of camp. Given that the strain Assad is reportedly suffering from is mild, he hasn’t been ruled out for Opening Day. With that being said, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma discussed the club’s rotation outlook yesterday and suggested that the Cubs may not push Assad to be ready for Opening Day.

If Assad were to open the season on the injured list, that would leave the door wide open for another player to take that final rotation spot, and even if he’s healthy Assad seems to be less firmly locked into the rotation than Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, or Matthew Boyd. Fortunately for the Cubs, they have the starting pitching depth necessary to cover for Assad if he’s injured and consider other options even in the event that he’s healthy. Though they’ll only need two starting pitchers for their two-game set against the Dodgers in Tokyo that predates the normal start of the regular season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cubs wanted to have a good idea of what their rotation was going to look like entering that first series of the year.

If he’s healthy, Assad remains easy to bet on for the job. After all, the right-hander delivered 29 solid starts for the Cubs in 2024, pitching to a 3.73 ERA in 147 innings of work. Those are fairly impressive numbers for a back-end starter, but it’s worth noting they also come with notable red flags: Assad wore down badly throughout the year after a hot start, with a 4.84 ERA from June onward and an ugly 6.86 ERA down the stretch in September last year. In addition to those deep struggles later in the season, the right-hander also posted lackluster peripherals with a 4.64 FIP, a strikeout rate of just 19.4%, and a hefty 9.9% walk rate. That’s one of the 10 worst seasons by K-BB% and one of the 15 worst seasons by FIP in all of baseball last year among pitchers with as many innings as Assad.

Should Assad’s combination of spring injuries and second-half struggles give the Cubs enough pause to turn to someone else on Opening Day, it’s possible that offseason addition Colin Rea could be the first to get the call. Rea, 34, signed with the Cubs last month on a one-year, $5MM pact. The righty had a brief stint with the Cubs during the shortened 2020 season, but spend the past two seasons in Milwaukee as a back-end starter for the Brewers. The right-hander posted a 4.40 ERA and 4.82 FIP in 58 appearances over the past two seasons, 42 of which were starts.

Rea posted a higher FIP (4.75) and a lower strikeout rate (18.9%) than even Assad did last year, but he made up for that gap in effectiveness with volume. Rea posted 167 2/3 innings of work for the Brewers last year between 27 starts and five relief appearances, and showed the ability to pitch deep into games as he did so with 19 starts lasting longer than five innings, 11 of which went at least six and five of which saw him pitch into the seventh inning. That ability to pitch into the seventh sets Rea apart from his competitors, as all of the other pitchers mentioned who started an MLB game in the majors last year combined for just two seven-inning starts in 2024. Rea is also notable as the only pitcher discussed here who is both already on the 40-man roster and cannot be optioned to the minor leagues, meaning he’s all but assured a spot in either the Opening Day rotation or bullpen so long as he’s healthy.

While Assad and Rea may be the frontrunners for the job, there are certainly other options worth considering. Chief among those may be right-hander Ben Brown, who stepped into a rotation role with the Cubs early last year and looked good doing so. Brown’s rookie campaign saw him post a 3.58 ERA and 3.11 FIP with an excellent 28.8% strikeout rate. Those are fantastic numbers for any pitcher, but it’s particularly impressive for a 24-year-old getting his feet wet in the majors for the first time.

Unfortunately, Brown’s debut season was limited to just 55 1/3 innings in total, as he was shut down in June due to what Sharma reports turned out to be an osteoma, which is a benign tumor made of bone growing on an existing piece of bone. Brown appears to be healthy and ready to go for the 2025 season and is likely the pitcher with the highest upside the Cubs could turn to for their final rotation job, but his lack of big league experience and long layoff could make the club hesitant to immediately plug him into the rotation.

Another legitimate contender for the role could be southpaw Jordan Wicks, the club’s first-rounder from the 2021 draft and a former top-100 prospect. Wicks has yet to find success at the big league level in 80 2/3 innings of work across 18 appearances (17 starts), with a 5.02 ERA and a nearly matching 5.05 FIP. Like Brown, Wicks also missed much of the 2024 season due to injuries which, in his case, consisted of forearm and oblique issues. That combination of big league struggles and injury history seem to suggest the 25-year-old might be best suited to start the season at Triple-A, but his peripheral numbers were quite strong last year before he got bit by the injury bug as demonstrated by his 25.9% strikeout rate against an 8.3% walk rate in five starts before hitting the IL for the first time.

The aforementioned quartet aren’t the only plausible options, but they’re by far the most likely. Top prospect Cade Horton is a potential front-of-the-rotation arm who would be an exciting addition to the club’s staff, but he suffered a lost season in 2024 due to a subscapularis strain and is all but certain to get more reps in at Triple-A before making the jump to the majors. Non-roster invitees Brad Keller and Chris Flexen are veteran depth pieces who have served as viable back-end starters in recent years, but Keller appears to be getting work in as a reliever this spring while Flexen offers a similar profile to Rea but with lesser results and no guaranteed contract. Nate Pearson was discussed as a potential starting option over the offseason but has success in relief with the Cubs last year pitched just one inning of relief in his first spring appearance.

Who do MLBTR readers think the Cubs will turn to in order to round out the rotation? Will Assad return healthy and effective from his oblique issue to lock down the role? Will the club prioritize Rea due to volume and roster considerations, or go with a higher-upside pitcher like Brown or perhaps Wicks? Have your say in the poll below:

Cubs Notes: Caissie, Assad, Shaw

By Darragh McDonald | February 20, 2025 at 9:08pm CDT

Cubs outfielder Owen Caissie has been shut down, per manager Craig Counsell, as relayed by Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. The outfield prospect is battling left groin tightness. Lee mentions that Caissie underwent offseason core muscle surgery, though it’s unclear if his current issue is related to that procedure.

Caissie, 22, is on the 40-man roster but was unlikely to earn an Opening Day roster spot. That’s more to do with the overall roster picture than anything about Caissie in a vacuum. He’s a top 100 prospect who hit .278/.375/.472 for a 121 wRC+ in 127 Triple-A games last year. He was added to the 40-man in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

The Cubs’ big league outfield is slated to be crowded, with Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker in three spots. Seiya Suzuki will likely be in the designated hitter spot with regularity but could tag in for those others on occasion. Alexander Canario was designated for assignment earlier today but Jon Berti and Vidal Bruján are likely to be on the bench in utility roles.

Tucker is slated for free agency after this season and both Happ and Suzuki will hit the open market the following winter. That should open more long-term playing time but Caissie and fellow outfield prospect Kevin Alcántara appear slated for more Triple-A work in 2025, at least to start the year. Alcántara has just one option year remaining, perhaps giving him a slight edge in terms of earning a major league chance if an injury opens up some big league playing time. For as long as Caissie is shut down, the Cubs will have a bit less outfield depth but shouldn’t be in trouble unless a few more injuries pop up in the outfield mix.

Turning to the pitching staff, it was revealed last week that right-hander Javier Assad was out with some oblique soreness. That was later diagnosed as a mild strain, per Lee last week. Counsell relayed today that Assad has resumed playing catch.

That hopefully indicates that Assad is more or less on schedule, as he projects to be in the Opening Day rotation as long as he avoids the injured list. He will slot in at the back of a starting mix that includes Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon. If Assad were out of action, then perhaps swingman Colin Rea would step up. But that may not be necessary, allowing Rea to serve as a long reliever out of the bullpen. Assad has a 3.40 earned run average in 294 innings for the Cubs over the past three years, mostly as a starter.

On the infield, Counsell says Matt Shaw has been hitting in the cage and throwing. Like Assad, he had been slowed by an oblique issue but it appears both are making progress. Assuming Shaw stays healthy for the next few weeks, he’s the favorite to earn the third base job out of camp. However, the Cubs have been clear that he will have to earn the job and it won’t just be handed to him.

He will therefore have to be healthy enough to get on the field in the next few weeks and show the Cubs he’s worthy of the gig. The timeline is a little tighter than some other teams, as the Dodgers and Cubs are heading to Japan soon for the Tokyo Series. Those two clubs will be playing exhibition games against Japanese clubs on March 15th and 16th, before playing regular season contests against each other on March 18th and 19th.

Shaw slashed .284/.379/.488 for a wRC+ of 146 between Double-A and Triple-A last year. If he doesn’t secure the job out of camp, then some combination of Berti, Bruján, Justin Turner and Rule 5 pick Gage Workman would likely be the fallback options. Nicky Lopez and Dixon Machado are non-roster invitees with some big league experience in camp.

Cubs Notes: Assad, Birdsell, Rotation

By Darragh McDonald | February 10, 2025 at 10:05pm CDT

Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to camp for all 30 clubs this week, but the Cubs started a little earlier than everyone else. That’s due to the fact that the Cubs and Dodgers are starting the regular season early, flying to Tokyo to play a couple of games there in mid-March.

Inevitably, the opening of camp leads to revelations of injuries that weren’t previously known to the public. Cubs manager Craig Counsell relayed a couple of those to reporters, including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. Right-hander Javier Assad is dealing with some oblique soreness while fellow righty Brandon Birdsell is dealing with an issue in the back of his shoulder. Per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, Assad is getting some imaging today.

At this point, it’s unclear if either issue is serious, though the club’s rotation depth could suffer if one or both of these hurlers have to miss some time. On paper, Assad would be in the club’s Opening Day rotation. Last year, he made 29 starts and logged 147 innings, allowing 3.73 earned runs per nine. He was probably a bit lucky to allow so few runs, as his 80.3% strand rate was well above the 72.1% league average, while his 19.4% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate were both subpar. Still, his 4.64 FIP and 4.72 SIERA still point to him being a passable back-end guy.

As of right now, the rotation to start the season would include Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd in four spots. Assad and Colin Rea would be candidates for the back end. If Assad is healthy, Rea could wind up in a long reliever role, or he could hold down the number five spot if Assad needs some time on the shelf.

Birdsell is further down the depth chart. A fifth-round pick from 2022, he is not yet on the 40-man roster. But he finished his 2024 season with 12 Triple-A starts with a 4.26 ERA, 26.2% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate. He’ll likely be back in the Iowa rotation to start 2025 as a top depth option, alongside guys like Jordan Wicks, Cody Poteet and Cade Horton.

Adding to the club’s starting mix is seemingly still a possibility. The Cubs were recently connected to the rumors surrounding Dylan Cease of the Padres. They also still have a bit of wiggle room in terms of the competitive balance tax, assuming they would rather not pay it this year. RosterResource puts their current CBT number at $209MM, more than $30MM away from the $241MM base threshold.

Cease is going to make $13.75MM this year, so he could easily fit into that remaining space. There are also a few mid-rotation pitchers still available in free agency, such as Andrew Heaney, Nick Pivetta, Jose Quintana and more. The club isn’t likely to rush out and make a panic move just because of a few spring injuries, but it’s an area they had their sights set on already. It’s possible that further developments that impact the overall group could increase the club’s desire to pivot to backup plans.

Cubs Planning To Add Starting Pitcher In Offseason

By Darragh McDonald | September 23, 2024 at 2:03pm CDT

The Cubs are planning to add an established starting pitcher to their rotation this winter, reports Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. The club has Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad in four spots. Per Mooney’s report, adding one more name into that mix would push guys like Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Jordan Wicks and Hayden Wesneski down the depth chart.

“In one sense, you feel like you’re in a solid position because we have a number of young pitchers (who) have had success in the big leagues,” Manager Craig Counsell is quoted as saying in the piece. “Now with all of them, there’s been injuries. And it’s not a big sample as of yet. But that’s also kind of the nature of pitching. It’s the nature of young pitching. So we’re in a good spot in terms of that area of depth. But as we saw this year, it disappeared quickly.”

The quartet of Imanaga, Steele, Taillon and Assad have been the club’s best starters this year, both in terms of quality and quantity. Each of that group has an ERA of 3.41 or lower at the moment and all of them have tossed between 130 and 175 innings on the season thus far.

But as Counsell alluded to, there were also some challenges. Steele made a couple of trips to the injured list, one for a left hamstring strain and another for left elbow tendinitis. The Cubs had picked up a $16.5MM club option to bring back Kyle Hendricks but that ultimately proved to be a misstep. Hendricks struggled badly enough to get moved to the bullpen. He eventually retook a rotation spot but has a 6.28 ERA for the year overall. Wicks is currently on the IL for the third time this year, having gone on the shelf for a left forearm strain and then two separate stints for right oblique strains. Brown hasn’t pitched since June due to a stress reaction in his neck. Horton last pitched in May, getting shut down with a subscapularis strain and suffering a setback while trying to return the mound.

An argument could be made for rolling into 2025 with the same front four, letting the group of Wicks, Brown, Horton and Wesneski fight for the fifth spot. But with so many issues in 2024, adding some more security makes plenty of sense. None of those four are fully established. Wesneski is the only one with more than 81 big league innings pitched, and his 186 frames have been split between the bullpen and rotation. Wicks, Brown and Wesneski all still have options, meaning they could be stretched out in Triple-A if not needed on the big league staff. Horton isn’t yet on the 40-man and doesn’t need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft until December of 2025.

The Cubs also might not have much else on their winter to-do list. Even if Cody Bellinger eventually opts out, the outfield will still have Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki and Mike Tauchman, with Alexander Canario, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcántara and Brennen Davis at Triple-A. The infield has Isaac Paredes, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Michael Busch, with Matt Shaw knocking on the door. Miguel Amaya has shown some progress at the plate and Christian Bethancourt can be retained for next year if the Cubs believe in his recent performance. Moises Ballesteros will also be pushing for a job soon.

The bullpen arguably should be a focus but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer had made it clear he would prefer to not to make free agent splashes there. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, since Hoyer was hired in November of 2020, the club hasn’t given a multi-year deal to any reliever. And of the one-year deals they have given out, the only guy to get more than $5MM was Héctor Neris, who got $9MM.

Unless a change is coming in terms of the approach to bullpen construction, starting pitching is a logical target with the position player group in strong shape. And there should be some powder dry for reinforcements. The club went narrowly over the $237MM competitive balance tax this year, with RosterResource currently pegging their number a bit over $238MM. Next year’s tally is only at $126MM right now. Arbitration raises for guys like Paredes and Steele will certainly add to that number and it will grow significantly if Bellinger decides to stay, but there will still be room for a notable contract.

Hoyer hasn’t played at the top of the market in terms of starting pitching but has given out some mid-market deals. As shown in the MLBTR Contract Tracker again, Imanaga, Taillon and Marcus Stroman have each received guaranteed between $53MM and $71MM, the largest guarantees the Cubs have given to starting pitchers in the Hoyer era.

This winter’s starting pitching class will be topped by guys like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty and Blake Snell, assuming Snell stays healthy and opts out of his deal. Signing any of those guys would likely require the Cubs to go to a new level of spending, getting into nine-figure territory. If they want to stay in that Stroman/Taillon/Imanaga tier, they’d probably be debating names like Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta and others. Hall-of-Fame-bound veterans Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander will be limited to short-term deals since they are both in their 40s and coming off injury-plagued years in 2024.

The trade market will be another option for the Cubs. The White Sox didn’t end up flipping Garrett Crochet at the deadline but could perhaps make him available again in the winter. The Marlins lost almost all their rotation options to injury this year but it’s possible to see them considering deals as the group gets healthier for 2025. Somewhat similarly, the Rays seem to have an abundance of rotation options with Jeffrey Springs, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen returned from long absences, with Shane McClanahan to join them next year. Other possibilities will surely emerge as the winter goes on.

It will be an interesting offseason for the Cubs. Their signing of Swanson heading into 2023 seemed to signal a wish to return to contention after a couple of rebuilding years. They had a solid but unspectacular year in 2023, winning 83 games. They may top that here in 2024, currently at 80-76, but will miss the postseason again. Pressure figures to be high for a club that hasn’t made the postseason in a full campaign since 2018, but a lot of good elements are in place and a few finishing touches could perhaps get them over the hump in 2025.

Cubs Notes: Hendricks, Assad, Rotation

By Nick Deeds | July 6, 2024 at 5:13pm CDT

Veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks exited his start against the Angels today after just two innings of work, replaced by right-hander Colten Brewer to start the third inning. The Cubs later announced (as relayed by Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic) that Hendricks had exited his start due to lower back tightness.

The 2024 season has been a brutal one for the 34-year-old righty, as he’s struggled to an eye-popping 7.48 ERA with a 5.34 FIP in 61 1/3 innings of work entering play today. That rough performance saw the righty move to the bullpen earlier this season, although injuries elsewhere on the roster combined with a month’s worth of solid results (he posted a 2.67 ERA and 2.97 FIP in 27 inning from May 23 to June 25) allowed him to move back into the rotation in late June. Now, his status appears to be in question once again after his exit today due to an injury similar to one Hendricks already missed three weeks due to earlier this year.

Fortunately, Hendricks told reporters (as noted by Tony Andracki of Marquee Sports Network) after the game that the issue isn’t the same problem that caused him to miss time back in May. The veteran noted that he first felt his back lock up yesterday, and that while the pain lingered today he and the club decided to go ahead with his start in hopes he could manage the tightness. Hendricks expressed confidence that he would be able to make his next start, although manager Craig Counsell was more cautious, noting that it wasn’t yet clear if Hendricks would be ready to take the ball in time.

That could be a problem for the Cubs, as while they have a day off on Monday they’re scheduled to play seven games in six days after that in the run-up to the All Star break, including a doubleheader against the Cardinals on July 13. If Hendricks is unable to make one of those starts, that would leave the Cubs with just three healthy regular starters (Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon) amid injuries to Javier Assad, Ben Brown, and Jordan Wicks. Swingman Hayden Wesneski has joined the rotation in recent days despite struggling badly in the bullpen throughout the month of June and figures to continue chipping in for starts while the rest of the rotation gets healthy, but if Hendricks is unable to make one of those starts that still leaves the club in need of two more starters before the break.

Counsell suggested to reporters (including Andracki) after the game that Assad could return from the right forearm extensor strain that sidelined him late last month in time to make one of those starts, noting that the club is “optimistic” that he can contribute in the big leagues next weekend. If Assad, who has posted a solid 3.04 ERA across 16 starts despite a middling 4.16 FIP this year, can return while Hendricks avoids an IL stint of his own that would solve the club’s short-term rotation questions. If Hendricks doesn’t recover quickly enough to take the ball over the weekend, however, that would leave the club in search of innings just before the All Star break.

Speculatively speaking, the Cubs could tap veteran southpaw Drew Smyly to make one of those starts. The lefty started 23 games for Chicago last year but has been used exclusively out of the bullpen to this point in the 2024 campaign and last threw even 40 pitches in an outing back on April 5. Top prospect Cade Horton is at the Triple-A level but won’t be an option amid a shutdown due to a subscapularis strain last month. Journeyman lefty Thomas Pannone has made 18 starts for the club at Triple-A this year, but has posted mediocre results (4.57 ERA in 86 2/3 innings) and would need to be added to the club’s 40-man roster. A bullpen game could be another possibility for the club, but that may be a tall order for a relief corps that has already lost Wesneski to the rotation while Yency Almonte, Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. are all shelved with injuries of their own and had to cover seven innings in relief of Hendricks today.

Cubs Place Javier Assad On Injured List

By Darragh McDonald | June 27, 2024 at 12:35pm CDT

The Cubs made some roster moves today, with Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune among those to relay them on X. As was previously reported, the Cubs signed right-hander Vinny Nittoli. To open a spot for him on the active roster, fellow righty Javier Assad has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a right forearm extensor strain. Righty Yency Almonte was transferred to the 60-day IL to give Nittoli a 40-man spot. Assad’s move is retroactive to June 24, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times on X.

At this point, it’s unclear how severe Assad’s injury is or how long the club expects him to be out of action, but it’ll be a blow for them regardless. Assad has made 16 starts for the club so far this year, allowing 3.04 earned runs per nine innings. There’s probably a bit of good luck in that number, as Assad’s 83.3% strand rate and .276 batting average on balls in play are both on the fortunate side. His 4.16 FIP and 4.22 SIERA suggest he would have trouble maintaining that kind of run prevention going forward.

Regardless, it’s still less than ideal for the Cubs to lose yet another arm to the injured list. They recently had Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks land on the IL, which forced Kyle Hendricks back into a rotation role, after he struggled earlier in the year and got kicked to the bullpen. The bullpen has also been undercut by injuries, with Almonte, Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. all on the shelf.

Around all of those injuries, the club has been falling in the standings. They were 18-12 at the end of April but have gone 19-32 since, putting them at 37-44 at the moment. That’s still just five games back of a playoff spot in the weak National League Wild Card standings, but they’re currently the worst team in the NL apart from the Marlins and Rockies. That gives them a slim margin for error with the deadline just over a month away and losing a solid rotation member like Assad for even just a few weeks doesn’t help.

Without Assad, the rotation consists of Hendricks, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga. They will need to come up with a fifth starter soon and also play seven games in six days just before the All-Star break, thanks to a July 13 double-header in St. Louis. Hayden Wesneski made a spot start yesterday, tossing four innings, and could perhaps get the ball again in the coming days. Drew Smyly has plenty of starting experience but has been in a relief role this year. Top pitching prospect Cade Horton is shut down with a subscapularis strain and unavailable at the moment. Thomas Pannone, Dan Straily and Kyle McGowin are in the system on minor league deals and stretched out in the minors, though none of that trio currently has a roster spot.

As for Almonte, he’s been on the injured list since May 8 due to a shoulder strain. This transfer means he can’t be reinstated until 60 days from that date, which would be July 7. He wasn’t going to be ready before then anyhow. A few days ago, manager Craig Counsell told reporters that Almonte would be getting a second opinion after hitting a wall in his recovery attempts. “We’re just not progressing,” Counsell said, per Montemurro on X. “We have to find out whether medically there’s something we have to address or we have to take a different path on the rehab.”

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