March 11: Bello will indeed begin the season on the 15-day IL, Cora announced this morning (via MassLive’s Sean McAdam). He’ll continue building arm strength with an eye toward an early April return.
March 8: Red Sox starter Brayan Bello has not yet pitched a game this spring, as shoulder soreness has kept him on the shelf. Last weekend, the young right-hander expressed optimism that he would still be able to make the Opening Day roster, telling reporters (including MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith) that he was “right on track” as long as he could continue with the rehab work he was doing.
Today, however, Rob Bradford of WEEI reports that Bello looks “increasingly” unlikely to break camp with the Red Sox. According to manager Alex Cora, the righty is making good progress but remains behind schedule. At this point, it’s hardly surprising that Bello could start the season on the IL. Opening Day is less than three weeks away, and he has not seen any game action in spring training.
In three MLB seasons, Bello has not yet lived up to his top prospect billing. Still, he has pitched like a capable back-end starter, putting up a 4.42 ERA and 4.14 SIERA over 71 games (69 starts). He has averaged just over 5 1/3 innings per start and just over 2.1 FanGraphs WAR per 162 innings pitched. The Red Sox would surely be happy if Bello could give them exactly that in 2025, but he still has the potential to be even better. He won’t turn 26 until May, and his upside is undeniable. He leads with a 95.7 mph sinker, helping him induce groundballs at a high rate, while his slider and changeup give him two good weapons for generating whiffs. In 2022, the prospect evaluators at Baseball America, FanGraphs, and The Athletic all described him as a potential mid-rotation arm.
If Bello does indeed begin the season on the IL, MLB.com’s Ian Browne infers that either Richard Fitts or Quinn Priester could fill in as Boston’s number five starter. The winner of that battle would slot in behind Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Walker Buehler, and Lucas Giolito. Kutter Crawford should provide rotation depth at some point in 2025, but he is nursing a knee injury and is further behind than Bello this spring. Cooper Criswell is another arm on the 40-man with starting experience, but he seems to be lower down the depth chart than Fitts and Priester, both of whom have seen better results (albeit in a minuscule sample size) this spring.
The error bars are wide for the Red Sox’s rotation in 2025. If the most important arms stay healthy, Boston could have one of the best rotations in the sport. On the other hand, almost every starter the Red Sox have – including Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, and Patrick Sandoval – comes with some degree of injury risk. Bello has stayed relatively healthy throughout his career. He has spent time on the IL in each of his first three seasons, but none of those IL stints lasted longer than three weeks. If Bello needs to miss time, the Red Sox will hope that trend of brief IL stints continues in 2025.
I can’t wait until the regular season starts, and thete is something to focus on besides pitcher injuries.
What makes you think that pitcher injury will not be both frequent and key for the entire yr. ?
Focus on. Obviously both will happen, but right now, almost every post is injuries.
That’s why I wait until last minute to join a fantasy league, and even then there’s injuries the first two weeks
Yeah, I took Acuna with my first pick last year, bummer
I think 4 of the last 6 games I’ve attended at Fenway have been started by Bello, so to me this is great news.
Ha, I get that. One year I saw Carlos Zambrano start four times. 3 at Wrigley and once at GABP.
I wouldn’t mind so much if those starts didn’t go off the rails by the 3rd inning so often
Meow – Imagine going to a game that Pedro is supposed to start, and instead he’s replaced by Wakefield. That happened to me more than once, not fun. (RIP Wake)
I did have the honor of seeing a game in 2004 started by… Abe Alvarez? xD
I went to go see my first Fenway game. Clemens was pitching in August of 86. He was scratched for bob stanley. I think the Indians beat us with 20+ runs and Joe Carter going yard three times nearly killing our car in the parking garage across the street according to the attendant. Bob f’ing Stanley.
Meow – Abe was a remarkable story, he was legally blind in his left eye.
That game you attended was his only career start!
Fever—Could be worse. I went to Fenway one time when Oil Can Boyd pitched, and Sparky Anderson went with Larry Herndon as a pinch hitter and promptly hit a grand slam. The Can took an early shower.
It seemed like every game I attended in Fenway it was started by Wake. In 2005 I went to Yankee Stadium and saw Wake duel Randy Johnson.Wake gave up a solo shot by Jason Giambi in the 1st, Wake strikeout 12 in a complete game 3 hitter. Johnson only gave up 1 hit in 7 innings. Almost got to Mo in the 9th. Lost 0-1
I grew up as a California transplant, living in North Jersey. My friends and I used to buy Yankees tickets in advance, trying to figure out Mel Stottlemyre’s spot in the rotation. But we always screwed it up and would see Mike Kekich instead.
I’d say the sinker wasn’t working that day!
I remember going to Fenway in the mid 80’s and getting Jeff Sellers every time. Not Clemens. Not Hurst. Not the Oil Can. Always Jeff Sellers.
dan – Remember the commercial with Sale, Price and Wright?
I always hoped Sellers and Lyndon Byers would do a commercial together.
Fever- I just want Richard Fitts to get endorsement deals and ad campaigns with KY and Trojan.
Bello is very overrated. He’s no better than a 4 and this sets him back more. He’s supposed to be better with his stuff
I saw Tim Wakefield pitch so many times at Fenway Park, I felt like we were related. He was the best.
Wakefield was a great person but very mediocre pitcher
Can never have enough pitching depth, but I had injury concerns around Buehler and Crochet so losing Bello hurts.
Hopefully this isn’t any major issues and he just needs more time to ramp up.
This should give us another look at Dick Fitts, and I’m all for that.
Don’t count on fitts. Priester has been good
Priester seems to be the unsung prospect. I picture him being more valuable than Fitts, Bello or maybe even Crawford in a year or two.
@Tang – Sorry to disagree, but Fitts is arguably the better prospect over Priester. Breslow absolutely fleeced the Yankees on that deal. I do really like Priester as a depth arm, but Fitts has made incredible strides over the last year and has raised his ceiling considerably.
Fitts has been hurling 99mph this spring and looks like he could be a #3-5 starter on most MLB clubs without question.
In order, I’d rank their early season depth as such:
Crochet
Buehler
Houck
Fitts
Bello
Giolito
Crawford
Priester
(assuming Whitlock gets fully moved to the Bullpen)
Fitts has been sitting 95-96 this spring. He has occasionally ramped a pitch or two up to 99. The problem is those have not been strikes.
I always forget about the Verdugo trade for some reason, I’m always stuck on the sale trade and trade deadline.
I think Priester has more potential, but Fitts has shown better results so far.
I liked what Fitts did at the end of last season, and he added that curveball. Also come on, gotta cheer on Dick Fitts. That’s a hall of fame name right there.
Imagine that we’re fighting over two prospects and which one is better never saw this one coming
Tang – I like Fitts a lot, he’s got the makeup to be a decent MLB pitcher. Priester has MLB stuff, but so far hasn’t shown he’s capable of using it properly.
The Dugie trade has unquestionably been Breslow’s best move thus far.
Mlbtr should change its name to the Tommy John Network
partnership with tommy john underwear could work too
That stuff scares me. Is it so difficult to put on that I am risking tearing my UCL?
Tommy John should have gotten in on the ground floor of this whole thing and demanded 1% of the medical costs for every TJ surgery. The guy would be able to buy Oklahoma by now.
Why would he do that? It’s easy to buy Oklahoma. Know what’s not so easy? Trying to sell it…
On the other hand, almost every starter the Red Sox have – including Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, and Patrick Sandoval – comes with some degree of injury risk.
Every freaking pitcher everywhere all at once.
What happened to Josh Winchowski?? I thought he came up as a starter. Can he only relieve now ?
Winckowski should be in AAA Worcester! He has gone backwards, and he probably should be around 15th on the bullpen depth chart. He is not MLB quality any longer.
Wink looks like BP right now, idk what happened but his offerings are flat, hittable, walkable and just not MLB quality in any role. Way to much of the plate.
hayzee – Nope, Leo nailed it. On top of those four he listed as all returning from major surgery, Bello and Houck also had health issues last year and if you include the relievers then there’s Whitlock and Hendriks and Fulmer and Wilson all returning from major surgery.
Name another MLB team with that many pitchers returning from major injury plus pitchers who had health issues last year.
The Dodgers.
hayzee – Nope!
Yamamoto, Sasaki, Snell, Scott, Yates, Treinen etc all finished last year healthy and strong.
They are close, but the Sox win out with Crochet, Buehler, Crawford, Houck, Giolito, Sandoval, Hendriks and Whitlock all working their way back from health issues.
The vast horde of depressive Jays fans here can take heart from AL East news this week.
And everything is going swimmingly in Dunedin. (Fingers crossed) No injuries and the pitchers are looking great.
So typical: rehab, rehab, rehab, no improvement and THEN the MRI. Why not just go for the MRI to begin with? If it’s negative then go for the rehab. Time not wasted.
I wouldn’t assume an MRI had never been done before. But with pitchers, they’re not always so clear due to the damage inherent to that position. Sometimes a secondary MRI happens because they’re looking for something specific. Details about medical exams can be sketchy, because they’re not meant to be public knowledge. HIPPA laws and all…
You have to wait until the swelling goes down for an MRI to be effective.
Dick Fitts is throwing 99. It’ll only take a month for him to pass up Bello in expectations via his better results
Richard Fitts is touching 99 but he’s sitting more in that 95-96 range in 2 inning outings so far. If Fitts can hold 95-96 for 5 plus innings and occasionally reach back for 99 when needed that will be a good thing. He also doesn’t really have bat missing secondaries it’s not that I don’t think he can be useful I think he can but he’s more of a back of the rotation guy imo plus he’s been a fly ball pitcher in a park that’s not treated fly ball pitchers real well. Priester otoh doesn’t appear to have the velocity of Fitts but he does have a swing and miss curveball and he’s a ground ball pitcher. If Boston has Bregman and Story on the left side of the infield that will be among the best defensive left side of the infield defense in baseball. Hunter Dobbins should also be in the mix he throws just as hard if not harder the Fitts and he has a five pitch mix with the splinker he started to throw mid season last year as true swing and miss pitch. The Red Sox have true back of the rotation starting depth imo and that’s not even considering Criswell.
HOT!!!!
I’m a fan of Bello, he’s shown improvement each season, and seems to be coach able. His slow start last season was more a product of the changes Bailey was instituting rather than atuff. So for me, expecting another step forward this year, this is concerning news.
All of our starting options have had some sort of arm surgery in their past, except Houck. Now we’re looking at him to both stat healthy, and improve.
FRom what we’ve seen in ST so far, it appears Priester may be the more finished pitcher of the two and Fitts with perhaps slightly better stuff. I’m guessing Priester steps in, but the Sox may need them both at points this year
Sad – Sorry I have to disagree on a couple things.
Bello got worse last year, his ERA/WHIP/BB%/BB9 and SO/BB all got worse.
His WAR went from 3.2 in 2023 down to 1.5 last year.
And his biggest issue was mental. He’d be cruising along and then whenever something went wrong, whether it be a bad umpire call or an error behind him or a lucky bloop hit, he’d have a meltdown and implode.
Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical.
I do like Bello, so I will at least give a brief defense. Yes, the entirety of his season had some regression.
But, Let’s not forget that Bailey didn’t allow him to use his four-seam fastball until July 3rd.
In his second half of 2024 he dropped his FIP to a career best. He was also 7-3.
Agreed that he needs to become mentally tougher, but that seems to be a trend among Red Sox prospects developed through the big leagues, doesn’t it?
Sad sack – you lead the league in typos today….
Was Bello really a top prospect? He was never on any top 100 list. And while he was among the better pitching prospects in the Sox system a couple times, so was Shane Drohan and a few other borderline pitchers. Plenty of players make their team’s top ten list – at least 300 every year. Not sure that qualifies all of to be “top prospects”…
LOL! That’s exactly why I was in here. I checked it out, and BR doesn’t show Bello ever being in the top-100 in BA, BP, or MLB.com.
Just don’t mention Henry Owens in Boston.
How bout Spike Owen???
Or Lars Anderson
I would never have considered him a top prospect, he was probably their top pitching prospect but that doesn’t say much, and he had a fast rise through the system due to need at the MLB level.
I like Bello, and think he can be a good major league pitcher, but needs to work on the mental side. He’s got the stuff, just gets into jams and snowballs.
Another nice outing for Newcomb today. He could put himself into consideration for some starts. Another LH starter would be ideal.
The consequences of relying on “potential” as a primary roster building strategy. I never really saw him as that special of a pitcher.
2 down. Who is next? Crochet? Buehler? Giolito?
Baseball – Not a SP, but I’d say Whitlock. Hope I’m wrong.
Giolito apparently
Steve – Wow! Seems like Gio and Liam are in a competition to see who can go two years on the Red Sox without ever pitching in a regular season game for them.
This is why you have depth, don’t come back early. That’s the reason for the 40 man roster….
Bello needs to get more serious about his offseason conditioning. The dates for certain conditioning to be done are well known. Bello is in a critical time for his career going forward. If he doesn’t step up, perfect his command and control, he may not have a long career the way I see it, outside of a relief pitcher in low leverage situations. He seems to lose focus as games progress or if he gets in hot water. He needs to know or learn how to grind it out when he doesn’t have his best stuff
So what in this article gave you the impression he failed to do offseason conditioning?.from what i read his IL stint stems from shoulder soreness early in camp which set him back..and sore shoulders come from repetetive action.he could have followed the program exactly..and still had this happen , im not a doctor but do know everyone is different..perhaps this is a training staff fail for this individual?
I’ve seen Bello pitch. He never seemed fat to me. Does BBguru know something we don’t know?
He can’t even be a relief pitcher that well… you have to avoid walks to do that and Bello throws a lot of them. Quit downgrading relief pitchers from starters… they’re apples and oranges
Sorry but Bellos ego is a few notches too high. We are at the show me stage here. And we are talking about starts going at least 6 innings
Bad – I’ve heard others say that as well, that he’s got an ego because Pedro is his personal trainer. Personally I haven’t seen it, but I would hope he realizes Pedro is devoting all that time with him mostly because their hometowns are only 3 hours apart. Bello is not the most talented pitcher on the team, there’s at least five guys (Crochet, Buehler, Houck, Giolito, Chapman) who are more talented than him.
I don’t remember saying almost anything at all. What did he say that was egotistical.
Bello hasn’t said anything like that Joe.it’s more lies and fabrications from Fever pitch.
If it’s TJ surgery, don’t wait it out
Add Devers to the list. Sulking because they hired Bregman who can
Throw over to First Base…..Devers injury will be season long. Trade him….