Brayan Bello

The Red Sox and right-hander Brayan Bello are actively engaged in contract discussions, Bello himself tells Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. While the 24-year-old righty didn’t put a specific timetable on when an agreement might come together, he suggested it’s possible that a deal could come together this spring.

Bello has long been viewed as a potential core piece for the Sox. Prior to making his big league debut in 2022, he was widely regarded as one of the Sox’ five to ten best prospects. He’d posted strong numbers in the upper minors and drawn praise from scouts for both a plus changeup and potentially plus heater, leading to projections as a future mid-rotation arm if all went according to plan.

Through the first season-plus of his career, Bello has pitched 214 1/3 innings of 4.37 ERA ball. His 20% strikeout rate is below the league average, but his 7.7% walk rate is better than average and his 56.1% ground-ball rate is among the best in the game for starting pitchers. That grounder rate and his command have led fielding-independent metrics to be a bit more bullish on the righty than his earned run average (4.11 FIP, 4.14 SIERA).

Bello’s four-seamer and more heavily used sinker have both been hit hard by MLB opponents, but that highly touted changeup has indeed stood out as a clear plus pitch for him; opponents have batted just .186 and slugged only .256 off the pitch in his career thus far. That’s been his only pitch with consistently strong results to date, but Bello sits 95.2 mph on his sinker and 95.7 mph on his four-seamer, so the velocity is certainly there for him to find success with his primary offerings. His 11% swinging-strike rate and 32.1% opponents’ chase rate are both right in line with the league-average marks, so there’s room for his strikeout rate to creep up a bit even in the absence of significant gains with his fastballs.

To this point in his career, Bello has amassed 1.082 years of major league service time. That puts him on track to be eligible for arbitration in the 2025-26 offseason and keeps him under Red Sox control through at least the 2028 season. Contract extensions for starting pitchers in this service bracket have been surprisingly rare in recent years, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. For a whole decade, Madison Bumgarner’s five-year, $35MM extension with the Giants back in April of 2012 stood as the record for this service class.

Braves righty Spencer Strider utterly shattered that precedent when he put pen to paper on a six-year, $75MM extension after just having surpassed one year of service (1.003). That extension came on the heels of an overpowering rookie season in which Strider finished second (to his own teammate, Michael Harris II) in National League Rookie of the Year voting. He’d logged 131 2/3 innings with a 2.67 ERA while fanning a borderline comical 38.3% of his opponents.

Bello’s performance to date doesn’t measure up to that dominance from Strider, and he’d likely fall well shy of that highwater mark on an extension of his own. Cincinnati right-hander Hunter Greene’s even more recent six-year, $53MM extension could be viewed as a more salient comp for Bello’s camp, though it’s not perfectly analogous in its own right. Greene’s rookie showing in 2022 featured 125 2/3 innings of 4.44 ERA ball, and when he signed his contract in April of 2023, he carried a career 4.42 ERA in 148 2/3 frames. His path to those results was quite different — overpowering triple-digit fastball, plus strikeout rate, average command and a pronounced fly-ball profile — but they roughly align with Bello’s run-prevention numbers. Greene, however, is generally regarded as having a higher ceiling.

Both Strider and Greene signed six-year deals with a club option for a seventh season. A six-year deal would carry Bello through the 2029 season, and a seventh-year club option would give the Sox control over Bello’s 2030 campaign. If the two sides were to deviate from that structure, age could be a factor; Greene’s deal began in his age-23 campaign and Strider’s in his age-24 season. The 2024 campaign will be Bello’s age-25 season. A six-year deal and club option would keep him under club control through his age-31 year and position him to become a free agent entering his age-32 season.

If Bello wants a faster path to free agency (e.g. five years and an option), that’d be understandable but would also surely mean taking a guarantee shy of Greene’s $53MM. Even on a six-year deal, he’d likely fall a bit shy of that mark. When comparing him to Greene, it also bears mentioning that Greene had a larger safety net as a former No. 2 overall pick who’d received a $7.25MM bonus in the draft. Bello signed as a teenager out of the Dominican Republic for a $28K bonus and doesn’t have that type of financial security already established.

Whatever shape talks take, the mere fact that Boston is actively engaged in contract talks with a core young player represents a change of pace. The team waited until Rafael Devers was a year from free agency before shelling out a massive 10-year, $313.5MM extension (on top of his existing $17.5MM salary for his final arb year). Extensions for Xander Bogaerts (six years, $120MM) and Chris Sale (five years, $145MM) both similarly came when they were established stars with more than five years of MLB service. Again looking to our Contract Tracker, the only other pre-arb extension the Sox have given out in the past decade was Garrett Whitlock’s four-year, $18.75MM deal. Prior to that, you’d have to go way back to Clay Buchholz in 2011 to find an extension for a player who’d yet to reach arbitration.

Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy spoke earlier in camp about a need to begin exploring this type of contract earlier in his players’ careers (link via MassLive’s Sean McAdam). “Starting earlier, is probably a lesson,” Kennedy said just a few days ago. “We’ve not had a ton of success in extending our own guys. We have in the past and it’s been a great recipe for success. But I think starting those conversations earlier is a great idea.”

Brayan Bello is performing well enough in his first full season that the Red Sox seem to have interest in signing him to a long-term deal, with the club’s assistant general manager Eddie Romero saying as much to Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic.

“It’s all case-by-case, there’s no guidebook for it, but I think Brayan is a special case and we’ll make efforts to talk to him and his group,” Romero said. “He’s basically done what he needs to do and what we would want of a young starting pitcher in this organization and he’s gone about it the right way, he’s a great teammate and he’s improved the quality of his repertoire, he’s a very hard worker, and he’s earned the respect of everybody here so he’s the kind we want to stick around obviously.”

Those talks are unlikely to ramp up at the moment, since Bello’s preference is to focus on his performance while the season is still in progress. “If (the Red Sox) did speak to my representatives I don’t know,” he says, “because I told them if there are any extension talks I don’t want to hear about it in-season, because I want to focus on finishing my season good so that good things can happen for me.” But once the offseason rolls around, it appears he is indeed open to an extension. “I do want to stay here long-term,” he said. “This is the organization that gave me a chance to be somebody so I’d love to stay here.” Bello also expressed his openness to an extension with Rob Bradford of WEEI a couple of weeks ago.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Sox are interested in getting Bello to put pen to paper, given his strong results and the club’s need for long-term pitching solutions. He debuted in July of last year and make 13 appearances in the second half of the season, including 11 starts, posting a 4.71 earned run average in 57 1/3 innings. His 20.5% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate were both a bit below average but he kept the ball on the ground at an excellent 55.7% clip.

Here in 2023, he’s made 15 more starts with his strikeout and ground ball rates essentially holding steady but his walk rate dropping to 6.1%. That’s helped him drop his ERA by more than a full run to 3.14 for the season. He’s now been in the majors for just over a year and has a combined 3.77 ERA in 143 1/3 innings in that time and only celebrated his 24th birthday in May.

The rotation in Boston has many question marks at the moment. James Paxton is pitching well but is an impending free agent. Chris Sale still has one more guaranteed season on his contract and an option for 2025 but has been hurt quite often in recent years. The last time he reached 60 innings pitched in an individual campaign was 2019. Corey Kluber and Nick Pivetta have been moved to the bullpen, with Pivetta likely to stay there since he’s thriving and Kluber likely to have his option declined this fall. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock each have plenty of club control remaining but both have struggled to stay healthy to the point that neither has hit 80 innings in a major league season yet. Kutter Crawford has a 3.74 ERA this year overall but a 4.73 mark as a starter.

Looking even further ahead, there doesn’t seem to be much immediate help coming from the farm. Bryan Mata is on the 40-man roster but has a 5.61 ERA in Triple-A this year. Brandon Walter is working out of the major league bullpen right now but has a 6.08 ERA in Triple-A this year. Some other non-roster depth pieces have also struggled, leading the club to sign journeymen like Dinelson Lamet and Kyle Barraclough to minor league deals.

Taking all those factors into consideration, it’s understandable why the club would want to keep Bello around. There shouldn’t be any terrible urgency, as he will finish this season with one year and 82 days of service time. That means he won’t be slated for arbitration until after 2025 or free agency until after 2028. But like all players, he will only increase his earning power as he moves closer to those dates, as long as he stays healthy and effective. Hunter Greene and the Reds recently agreed to a six-year, $53MM extension when he had five years of club control remaining, where Bello will be this winter. But players in their arb years can generally go beyond that, such as the $90MM guarantee secured by Logan Webb when he was between three and four years of service time or the $108MM that Luis Castillo got when he was beyond four years. That’s not to say that Bello is the same caliber of pitcher as those guys or that the Sox would have to pay that kind of money, but it does highlight the way that prices will escalate as potential free agency gets closer.

The Sox already have some significant long-term contracts on the books, with Trevor Story, Masataka Yoshida and Rafael Devers each making $18MM or more for each future season through 2027. But extensions for pre-arb players generally have the salaries ramping up gradually, roughly mirroring the scaling up process of the arbitration system. A theoretical Bello extension would likely see him earn modest pay bumps over the first few seasons and the most significant salaries would be after Story and Yoshida are off the books. Devers’ contract goes through 2033 but is the only Boston player guaranteed a contract in 2028 and beyond.

Given the aforementioned rotation uncertainty, the Sox seem like a candidate to look for starting pitching in free agency this winter, but they may also look to use a few dollars to lock up their best internal candidate as well.