March 3: Finnegan’s $6MM salary has $4MM of deferrals, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. This seems to drop the net present value to $5.7MM.
February 27: The Nats made it official today, signing Finnegan with Stone Garrett designated for assignment as the corresponding move.
February 25: The Nationals are bringing back Kyle Finnegan, with Robert Murray of FanSided reporting that the two sides have agreed to a one-year contract. The Warner Sports Management client gets a $6MM guarantee, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Nats have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to make this official.
Finnegan, 33, spent the past five years with the Nats. He made 291 appearances for the club in that time, allowing 3.56 earned runs per nine innings. He struck out 23.5% of batters faced, gave out walks at a 9.5% clip and got grounders on 47.5% of balls in play. He also took over the closer’s job in that time. He earned 11 saves in both 2021 and 2022, then got that number to 28 in 2023 and 38 last year.
The Nats could have retained Finnegan for 2025 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a salary of $8.6MM, a bump from the $5.1MM he made in 2024. They somewhat surprisingly decided to walk away instead, non-tendering him back in November.
Though that move initially raised some eyebrows, there were some concerning numbers under the hood. His ERA has held fairly steady recently but his strikeout rate has been ticking down. He struck out 26.1% of batters faced in 2022, but that number fell to the 22% range in each of the past two seasons. His 2024 campaign was also fairly lopsided. He had a 2.45 ERA and 26.1% strikeout rate in the first half but a 5.79 ERA and 16.4% strikeout rate in the second.
He has also been susceptible to some loud contact in his career, especially lately. His 91.3 mile per hour exit velocity last year was considered by Statcast to be in the first percentile of qualified pitchers. His 48.1% hard hit rate was in the second percentile. In 2023, he allowed a 92.2 mph average exit velo (first percentile) and 47.5% hard hit rate (fourth percentile).
In hindsight, the decision not to tender him a contract looks like a wise one for the Nats. Though the righty received interest from some other clubs this winter, the Nats stayed in contact with Finnegan and were able to bring him back while saving a few million bucks relative to his projected price range.
The Nats have been rebuilding for the past few years and their offseason has mostly been about adding solid short-term veterans to their young core. Those vets can stabilize the roster and will ideally turn themselves into deadline trade chips if Washington isn’t contending in July.
In the bullpen, they have signed Jorge López and Lucas Sims to one-year deals, with Finnegan now joining them in that category. Derek Law is back for his final season of club control, retained via arbitration. Colin Poche is in camp as a non-roster invitee and is just about two months shy of six years of big league service time. If he’s added to the roster, the Nats would have five experienced bullpen arms slated for free agency after the season, making them logical summer trade candidates.
In the interim, there will be opportunities for younger arms to pitch around those guys. Jose A. Ferrer has just 66 big league innings but has posted huge ground ball rates in that time. Rule 5 pick Evan Reifert has to hold a spot or else be offered back to the Rays. Perhaps one of the club’s many starting candidates will end up in the bullpen as a long reliever. Eduardo Salazar, Zach Brzykcy and Orlando Ribalta are also on the 40-man but each has less than a year of big league service and can be optioned to the minors.
I know the analytics don’t agree but he’s not bad, glad to have him back on my team. Nats are starting to look like a major league team for the first time since ‘19. Hopefully one more meh season and then we can finally be back in the playoff picture next year
Nats did a great job trading their superstars for great prospects. Ya’ll are 1-2 yrs away from being nl east threat again. Need more pitching tho
They won’t be contenders until the 2030s at least
Sit this one out SHOWTIME
Analytics can’t watch a baseball game. The dude can close games. They needed a closer. Done deal. Glad they brought him back.
Amen! Kyle is effective and a fan favorite. So very glad they are bringing him back!
Given his age and the small but noticeable reduction in some of his metrics, it’s no surprise the Nats didn’t jump on re-signing him. Given the realities of pitchers in their 30s, a sudden drop-off in effectiveness can mean the difference between legit closer and mediocrity. Kyle took 8 losses and blew 5 saves in ’24. He is very good but not elite, and last year may have been his peak. The question is, Will he remain very good at prior levels? Worth the price, but developing younger arms is also a priority.
I like Finnegan as a pitcher, but I agree, Goose. He’s a tick or two off his velocity before imploding. He’s probably a decent bullpen option this year, but the future is murky.
Agreed it makes sense to keep him. It’s not like they have to give him a 4 year deal or anything. If he gets worse, just move on.
Seems especially true for relief pitchers. I remember a Tigers lefty proved the analytics predictions wrong for 3 or 4 years in a row before he started to decline.
Do you think some players (especially veteran relievers who can catch up quickly) sign late just because they don’t want to partake in a full Spring Training? Players have spoken about how Spring Training feels long.
Maybe? The older veterans might do it, but it’s also hard to know how much it’s them waiting out Spring Training games, and how much it’s these players not getting deals until now in Spring Training.
Exactly. The story says “he received interest from other clubs,” but not enough for him to sign elsewhere? Maybe he never got an offer any better than what the Nats might eventually have given him. So Kyle sat tight and had no Spring Training to go to — until now. Free agents who aren’t superstars probably don’t like to wait that long for a deal — lest it never come at all.
No, because you can always end up with a very poor deal if you wait until ST is underway and teams have settled their rosters and committed their payrolls, or the teams you were interested in go elsewhere and the only offer is from the White Sox or the A’s..
What’s the point of delaying? So you don’t have to put up with the first 2-3 weeks of ST, hanging out with your buddies and working on your tan while getting paid? It’s like a paid vacation in FL or AZ for a reliever.
Finnegan, begin again.
Better hope at 33 it’s not Finnegan’s Wake.
The Nats sign Finnegan, making it to spring training by the hair of his chinny chinny chin. again
They can’t quit each other or what
Again!
Mets didn’t need Finnegan. We have Reid Garrett, Sean Reid Foley, and Huascar Brazoban. We didn’t need an above average major league reliever. DS doesn’t stand for David Stearns, it stands for Dollar Store. Cheap Cheap Cheap
A.J. Minter, Genesis Cabrera, and Chris Devenski are decent additions to the Mets pen. There is still a chance that Clay Holmes ends up in the bullpen if the starting experiment doesn’t work out
@Rsox AJ Minter is out until May. I do like Cabrera but you can’t count on him. Chris Devenski hasn’t been good in years. The bullpen has holes. Its even more important now considering Montas and Manaea are both hurt, so the fill in guys are going to pitch less innings than the would be starters. The bullpen is going to implode
Nothing would be cooler than to see the Mets lose a ton of 10-9 games this year. Pitching, not hitting, is the name of the game, and the Mets’ staff so far looks a tad suspect.
@GooseGoslinGuy you are 100% right. The bullpen is the most important aspect of the game. All it takes is one reliever to mess up the whole game
Where do you get Minter is out until May? He’s supposed to try and get in games before the end of camp and make opening day. Cabrera & Brazoban have looked good so far and Finnegan IMO while not bad isn’t someone to be upset for your team which is also my team not signing. Lots of red flags even though he has produced well. Reed Garrett was great last year except when being burnt out after being used 8 out of 10 games multiple stretches of the year. Also Stanek is a household name and Butto is a quality guy, you complain just to complain. But to @Rsox Devenski has been bad a couple years now and got rocked yesterday after HOU had all its starting hitters out.
You just signed a dude for $765M. Kindly stop talking about your team being cheap.
@myaccount2 Steve Cohen isn’t cheap. Stearns is the one that is cheap
Stearns doesn’t have several billion dollars though
He’s not cheap, I know Stearns didn’t sign Diaz but we have a $100M closer and he signed a legit reliever in Minter while adding one with extensive success including the postseason in Stanek to go with Butto, Garrett, Nunez and a bunch of intriguing arms. Outside of the top closers in the game most FA relievers are all risk because of the uncertainty year to year, it’s usually older vets that can implode at any time and your banking on them staying good one more year.
Thank God, hopefully he’ll be better for us this season.
I like it. Solid Closer and out side of maybe Jorge Lopez the Nats didn’t necessarily have many 9th inning options
Jose A. Ferrer is a guy the Nats want as their Closer, since he’s a lefty who can throw 100 mph. He just lacks the experience thus far.
They would be wise to let Ferrer get some high leverage innings this season since they’re likely still a year away.
Finnegan is one of those pitchers that seems to be able to outperform the predictions and analysis of the advanced analytics. He is by no means a dominant closer, but I am good with having him back at the right price. Hopefully he can teach some of the younger pitchers the mental side of the game, especially the bullpen guys. He does seem to excel in terms of the closer mindset.
Thanks for coming back to DC, Kyle! I wish you the very best in your role this year. Doing it again will earn you a very nice payday in free agency next year.
Colome was also like that. Not intimidating, but also wasn’t psyched out with the pressure of getting the last few outs in a close game.
Do you really think advanced analytics can’t account for pitchers who induce weak contact?
FIP and xERA aren’t advanced analytics, fwiw, though xFIP and SIERA get closer to Finnegan’s actual performance.
Finnegan is fine for where the Nats are right now. A meh closer.
Even his results are only 10-15% above average.
Your 2025 Nationals’ Motto: “Sure, why not?”
The Nationals essentially used the non-tender process as a tool to give Finnegan a “stealth pay cut” while keeping him in the organization. By declining to offer arbitration, they avoided locking themselves into an $8.6M salary and instead re-signed him for $6M—saving $2.6M without actually losing the player. This suggests the arbitration process systematically overvalues certain relievers, particularly those with high save totals but declining peripherals. The Nats correctly identified Finnegan as a replaceable asset in a volatile bullpen market, letting him test free agency with the confidence that demand wouldn’t push his price up. The broader implication? Smart teams can exploit arbitration inefficiencies by non-tendering relievers with warning signs, betting they can bring them back cheaper—or replace them entirely—without any real risk.
It’s interesting to see them pay even as much as 6m for a very ordinary pitcher.
Relievers’ average ERA+ is around 102. Finnegan’s at 115, 113, 114, and 110 since 2021. Granted he doesn’t get hurt and shows up, but it’s hard to believe that’s worth 6m particularly at 33 when you can expect continued to decline to around a 105 ERA+.
This feels almost… lazy from the Nats’ FO.
I would like to have seen Finnegan on the Pirates and $6m is not outlandish but he may very have wanted more to change teams.Not sure that he is worth too much more than that but the Pirates need another veteran righthander reliever especially if they are serious about starting Carmen M.
Colin Holderman would do as well as Finnegan in the closer role. A little more volatility but a better peak, and likelier at 29 to hold serve or improve than Finnegan at 33.
Holderman failed miserably at closing a couple of years ago when Bednar could not pitch.His ceiling is the eighth inning.
The Pirates were cooked last year without Chapman.Finnegan may not have the best stuff but he can hold down the ninth in a reasonably good manner.It takes a special reliever to not let closing get to them adversely.
Nah, the 8th inning is not much different from the 9th. It just depends on what part of the lineup is due up in either inning. That’s why the Twins and Mariners don’t always use Duran and Munoz in the 9th, often bringing their respective “closers” in to face the heart of the order in the 8th.
Truth!
It’s about time.
Hank- You may be right about some teams but historically and still usually the best and bravest relief pitcher patrols the ninth inning.
The Pirates used Bednar exclusively in the ninth inning before he started pitching poorly.
There is something to be said to be the last man standing.
Rizzo had a high price for Finnegan the last trade deadline. He promised me to sell Finnegan at a fair place this comming summer. I nodded and here comes Finnegan.
Relievers are like kickers in the NFL. The great ones end up in Cooperstown or Canton. The rest bounce around and one never really knows what kind of season they will have year over year.
I like it for the Expos. Finn doesn’t blow that many games. It’s just that when he does blow them, it is usually in spectacular fashion.
Closers need to muster three outs, max. Let’s assume that two-thirds of the time in save situations, they have leads of two or three runs. Broadly meaning, a mediocre guy with an ERA of 4.50 could record a save, what, 75% of the time? He’ll blow half his one-run leads but convert the others, statistically speaking? I’m no quant, but I’ve always believed closers should be far more fungible. Finnegan is Exhibit A. He’d be the fourth relief option on some teams and that’s why the Nats won’t pay more money.
I can’t believe TB non tendered Poche and the Nats got him on a minor league deal what am I missing here? He was elite in 2023 and good in both 202 & 2024. What a sleeper value signing wish the Mets would have got him, blows my mind he couldn’t get a major league deal for $3-5M
Braves should have jumped all over that deal.. lord that’s a steal
The Lerners were doing deferrals before deferring was cool-and still are.
Good day for the Nats indeed!