As Spring Training once again becomes the league’s main focus in the aftermath of the Tokyo Series, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Phillies facing rotation questions:
Lefty Ranger Suarez is dealing with some stiffness in his back, as noted by The Athletic’s Matt Gelb. Imaging fortunately revealed no structural damage, but Suarez missed a month of the 2024 season with back issues and could begin the year on the injured list. Manager Rob Thomson said the club will know more about the southpaw’s availability for the start of the season within the next day or two. If Suarez were to open the season on the shelf, that would seem to leave right-hander Taijuan Walker ticketed for a return to the rotation to begin the year. The 2024 season was disastrous for Walker, who posted a 7.10 ERA in 83 2/3 innings of work last year. The 32-year-old Walker pitched well through three spring starts before being torched for six runs in 3 2/3 innings his last time out.
2. Gelof to undergo x-rays:
The A’s suffered a bit of a scare during yesterday’s game when second baseman Zack Gelof was hit by a pitch on his right hand. MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos relays that manager Mark Kotsay believes Gelof “will be fine,” but the 25-year-old was sent for x-rays nonetheless. The results of those tests could come back as soon as today and provide clarity on whether Gelof avoided an injury. He’s the club’s everyday second baseman and will try to improve upon last year’s sophomore slump, when he hit just .211/.270/.362 (after batting .267/.337.504 as a rookie in ’23). If Gelof were to miss time, Luis Urias is on the 40-man roster and appears to be the most likely candidate to fill in at second base.
3. Late spring rotation market movement?
Reporting yesterday indicated that the Diamondbacks have received interest on southpaw Jordan Montgomery of late, a notable development given the club’s efforts to trade the lefty (and at least a portion of the $22.5MM guaranteed he’s owed for this year). While it’s rare for trades to come together this close to the start of the season, with two games already in the books and stateside Opening Day just a week away, we’ve seen a handful of late-spring deals in recent years. The White Sox and Padres agreed to last year’s Dylan Cease trade just two weeks before Opening Day. Jon Berti was traded from Miami to New York in a three-team deal on the eve of Opening Day in 2024, just as the Twins and Padres worked out their Taylor Rogers/Chris Paddack deal in the hours before Opening Day 2022.
Plenty of teams, including Montgomery’s former clubs in New York and Texas, have suffered major rotation injuries this spring. Montgomery also isn’t the only player who could at least theoretically be available, as the Cardinals have expressed at least some level of willingness to part ways with either Erick Fedde or Steven Matz this spring.
Maybe a good fit for Pirates now that Jones could be lost for the year.
Montgomery costs money, something the Pirates owner is allergic to spending. The D-Backs would probably have to pay down his contract to league minimum to get the Pirates interested, and I’m pretty sure Arizona’s not going to do that.
Walker the gift that keeps on giving. Painter should be in the rotation in summer according to Phillies.
Building him up due to Tommy John so he won’t be able to go more than 125 innings. Phillies would rather save him for the second half then use him up by the All-Star break.
The writing is on the wall: Re-sign Aaron Harang.
I think a healthy Matz is a better pitcher than Fedde but harder for them to move because of his salary. Both are serviceable 4 or 5s. If they fall out of it and both are pitching well they wind up on different teams at the deadline.
A savvy GM could model this as a Bayesian game: assign probabilities to Suarez’s IL stint (say, 40% based on his 2024 absence), Gelof’s x-ray outcome (50% minor, 30% moderate, 20% severe), and Montgomery’s trade suitors (Yankees 60%, Rangers 50%, Phillies 30%, overlapping). Then, simulate payoff matrices—runs allowed with Walker vs. Montgomery for Philly, WAR lost with Gelof out for Oakland, prospect capital gained for Arizona. The optimal move might be a three-way trade nobody’s floated: Phillies get Montgomery, Diamondbacks dump salary and snag a prospect from a third team (say, Texas), and the A’s grab a cheap arm or bat to cover Gelof’s absence. This leverages everyone’s urgency gradients, turning chaos into a zero-sum win.
York,
Huh? You are proposing a 3 team trade between 4 teams? I think you just turned chaos into chaos!
@scottaz
You’re right. Messed up the Texas thing.
Yippee! Taijuan walker!
Thankfully I can read sarcasm …….. LOL,
“If Suarez were to open the season on the shelf, that would seem to leave right-hander Taijuan Walker ticketed for a return to the rotation to begin the year.” The words every Phillies fan loves to hear
“thankfully I can read sarcasm”
Believe it or not that’s probably a skill far fewer people have then you think lol
Sadly, I see it everyday and it’s scary. Have seen it here on MLBTR way too often.
When does the trade deadline end? I thought it already had.
July 31. MLB has no pre-season trade deadline…
Phillies training staff are garbage with Rangers back hurting eight months later
I know, right. I’ve been trying to get them to fix my back for like eleven years, and nothing.
Ranger is a free agent after this year too. This injury could be more problematic to his career than anything.
I’m not sure of his health status, but at the right price, the Phillies should be looking at Turnbull. If they expect Ranger to miss 3-4 weeks, start Turnbull and get as many IPs as possible before his arm goes.
Um, July 31st. Should be able to get one in under the 133 day wire.
I’m assuming that you are thinking about some other type of deadline, like the Unconditional Release Waiver Deadline (March 25) or the 26-Man Roster Deadline (March 27). Then there’s the end of one waiver period in April, and the immediate beginning of the next, various disabled list deadlines, minor league recall deadlines, etc.
But there is certainly no immediately upcoming deadline on MLB trades.
Craig Kimbrel was traded from Atlanta to Sam Diego very close to opening day one year. BJ Upton was involved in that trade.
Let Ranger start the season in the bullpen until Strahm is right. We don’t really need a 5th starter until the middle of April anyways, so maybe Taijuan takes one turn. Would keep his inninngs down, we see what Ranger is capable of through 100-125 innings.
Makes not resigning Turnbull or Hoffman seem like a possible mistake