When the Giants completed their 19th game of the 2021 season four years ago, they were 12-7, two games behind the reigning World Series champion Dodgers for the NL West lead. After four straight seasons with losing records, few expected a Giants club that was largely unchanged from the year prior to find any sort of success even after their solid start to the season. Even fewer expected what would actually come to pass, as San Francisco improbably went on to win 107 games and squeak out a division title over L.A. by just one game.
Flash forward to this year, and the Giants are 13-6 after their 19th game of the season and even closer to the once again reigning World Series champion Dodgers in the standings, sitting just half a game back. For fans in San Francisco who were jaded by the three seasons of mediocrity since that magical 2021 campaign, the Giants’ start has been a huge breath of fresh air. Scorching hot starts from outfielders Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski have helped carry the offense to the third-highest total of runs scored in the majors entering play today. Logan Webb has continued to play his part as a perennial candidate for the Cy Young award. The bullpen’s sterling 1.89 ERA is the second-best figure in all of baseball.
Those are encouraging signs, and there’s an argument that the team figures to get better in some areas. Willy Adames hasn’t begun to hit yet after signing the largest contract in franchise history. LaMonte Wade Jr. certainly won’t hit .102 all year, and even if he did continue to flounder, top prospect Bryce Eldridge could eventually be called upon to fill his shoes at first base. The rotation’s lackluster ERA (4.80) is nearly a full run higher than its FIP (3.90) and SIERA (4.00); Justin Verlander and Jordan Hicks almost certainly won’t continue running ERAs north of 6.00.
Projection systems have begun to generally buy into San Francisco’s hot start. FanGraphs gives the Giants a 51.3% chance to make the postseason with a projected record of 86-76, a massive step forward from their preseason projections (81-81, 28.5% postseason chance).
That’s not to say there are no potential red flags, of course. The rotation has looked rough outside of Webb. The rest of the group figures to bounce back from rough starts to at least some extent, but Robbie Ray’s velocity is at its second-lowest mark ever and he’s walking nearly 18% of his opponents. Could this version of Ray, a 42-year-old Verlander or Hicks serve as a credible No. 2 starter for a playoff team? That could be asking a lot. Meanwhile, the bullpen is currently outperforming both its FIP and SIERA by nearly a run and a half.
The biggest obstacle for the Giants if they want to maintain their current success, however, is the landscape of the NL West. Their excellent 13-6 record is good for only third place in the division and just one game ahead of the fourth-place D-backs (who’d won five straight and seven of their past eight). Arizona, San Diego, and especially L.A. entered the season not just as projected contenders, but potentially dominant clubs. Their own starts to the season have done little to change those expectations, and while the Giants have pulled off some impressive series wins against clubs like the Yankees and Astros, they’ve yet to play a single game against their own division.
Their first big test in that regard will be a two-game set against the Padres at the end of the month. The Giants will be in Arizona for the first time about a month from now, and they won’t face the Dodgers until mid-June. Perhaps being able to save difficult matchups against division rivals for later in the season will allow the Giants to build enough of a cushion to sustain themselves through the trade deadline, when they can add reinforcements. A stretch of 13 straight games against the D-backs and Dodgers in mid-September presents a potentially formidable roadblock late in the season.
How sustainable do MLBTR readers believe San Francisco’s hot start to be? Will they be able to exceed preseason expectations that they’d finish around .500, or perhaps even make it to October? Have your say in the poll below:
Not enough pitching.
Your not wrong in regards to how the rotations performed the few times through. The bullpen is carrying the pitching load and doing a fine job. Luckily the giants have a good amount of starting pitching depth with varying degrees of success , should they decide to have a short leash with any of the starters. They moved birdie to the pen, Harrison to triple a , whisenhunt , and Seymour are also there. Don’t forget black, Winn, Beck, and even Hjelle.
I didn’t believe the 2021 giants would do anything, and they went and won 107, I’m not making the same mistake again
Lee is legit and I believe (like the 2021 team) everyone will have great/career years at the same time, and then they go out and trade for sandy alcantara at the deadline and finish as a WC
There will be other contenders that can offer way more for Alcantara
That’s not completely true. All a team has to be is willing, and they can come up with the best package. With a new GM, I’d suspect the Giants would be more willing than ever to take bigger chances.
On the other side of the coin the Giants have a bunch of almost MLB ready starting pitchers in Sacramento and beyond. May not need to trade for anyone but, if so some of them become trade chips. One of the biggest questions right now is Verlander. He hasn’t been good at all so far. I think he needs to pound the zone with fastballs and see if it has an effect on his control. Robbie Ray is having the same control issues and also doesn’t mix his fastball in enough. Just MHO.
I feel like the giants have to get another quality starter which would be huge come playoff time
Can you trust verlander and ray and hicks potentially getting playoff starts? Another starter with Webb would help this problem
For what? He isn’t exactly pitching very well.
You wouldn’t expect him to be at this point, but he should be by the all-star break. Not many pitchers come back from Tommy John aces from the get-go.
The 2016 White Sox started with an identical 13-6 record. They stayed hot until May 10th peaking at 23-10. They were 28-25 on June 1st and below .500 on June 8th.
I realize the Giants are a different team and what happened to the White Sox in 2016 is irrelevant to some degree. It just illustrates how early it is right now and how much things can change. That’s my point. I voted below .500.
Giants are frauds and will be .500 or worse by the end of the season.
I won’t go that far and I’ll throw all my cards on the table. I think they have some good up and coming talent. I’m a Padre fan and I think (Melvin who’s a great human being) will let them down with his passive management style. Ok maybe I’m a little bitter about his tenure in SD…
Ha ha. Very definative.
Giants will be 3rd wild card in NL
It’s possible. You have to figure, The Mets or Phillies will take one, with the other winning the division, same with the Dodgers or Padres who will take another, That leaves every other contender fighting for one spot which could be the Giants, Dbacks, most of the NL Central and cant count out the Braves, even after their horrific start
They have a chance at a wild card, but you have to win 100+ games to win the NL West. They are not doing that.
They have a great bullpen. They remind me of the Mariners. All pitching and not enough position players with bat pop.
Except the Mariners have 4 studs in their rotation and the Giants have 1. Not even remotely close.
Lee is a pleasant surprise. Ditto with Flores’ rebound. Doubt Yaz will sustain his hot start. Schmitt, Huff, Koss, and Wade are not justifying roster spots IMO. Bailey looks like a regression candidate. TBH, the rotation is quite mediocre beyond Webb. Ray, Hicks, and Verlander are #4’s or 5’s on most teams.
I expect the Padres to come back down to earth and for the Dodgers to gradually rise to the top. I think this Giants team will be better than last year’s, but that they are likely ticketed for 3rd or 4th place in the NL West all the same. That might be good enough to sneak into the wildcard, but more likely not.
Looking solid. In the playoff hunt to the death is as far as I’ll commit.
They’ll fall off. 3rd place maybe. Too many inconsistent players and hitters who strike out too much. Verlander is buns, farm is weak and they been lucky so far. Luck will fade. Bailey can’t hit, Wade Jr is a bench player, Doval struggling again, and Adhames won’t do much. And if they are in contention at the AS break they’ll trade away top prospects for rentals
It will be interesting to see how Posey operates at deadlines because we have no precedent there yet. SF graduated most of the top prospects during the Zaidi administration, and with the exception of Eldridge, there aren’t really any other big chips at this time. Posey explicitly declined to move Eldridge this past offseason, and I doubt he will any time soon, particularly given that there’s a need at 1B and that Eldridge will be knocking on the door very soon.
Giants are the NL West team I have the hardest time trusting. Talent-wise, it still feels like LA >> AZ > SD > SF. I don’t think the Giants will sustain their hot start, but that’s a lot of banked wins early in the season. I could see them in the playoffs for sure.
The Giants will stay in the hunt for WC all season. This team just feels different from the past few years. Defense is much better than previous seasons also. Hitters throughout the lineup. Some haven’t started hitting yet. The few guys scuffling badly have track records though. They will get it going soon. If Verlander and Ray would start pounding the strike zone I think they’re outings would be better. And they have one of the best bullpens in baseball. So I think they will be contending the whole season.
Interesting analysis. Apparently the players who are currently underperforming won’t continue to do so, but the players who are currently over performing will continue to do so.
They might not be a 90+ win team, but they’re essential the same team that went 80-82 last year (lost Blake snell – added Willy Adames, Justin Verlander, and Jung Hoo Lee). The team is, at worst, the same level as they were in 2024. A bit silly to assume the team is suddenly a sub .500 team especially after a 13-6 start.
Giants will fade by June. The Athletics will be the talk of the Bay Area even though they’re in Sacramento but they will burn out in the heat of the summer too.
I dont think it will be the Giants burning out, but Arizona is a better team. Giants will be in the wild card race though. Arizona might win the division.
Starting pitching is suspect, but not enough hitting.
To many hitters trying to do too much. Pat the bat needs to get the hitters to relax at the plate.
I like the nice start. The offense has over performed and come back to earth with a shutout last night. The starters are hot n cold and the pen has been really the strength as most thought it would. Position players also have been up and down with their hitting. Adames has been very slow. Chapman picking up. Yaz a nice surprise. That will happen in April with any team. The record speaks for itself and with most teams at about .500 give or take as well, the G’s are doing what they need to do while working thru the kinks. Will Koss be on the roster the whole year? No. And Lee is a great surprise as the #3 hitter.
With the extended wild card, They should be right there for sure. I don’t know if they have the conpacity to get another starter down the stretch with all the guys they have but hopefully Verlander can at least get out of his head for 300 and win at least one.
Outside of JV, the rotation is looking very good on potential.
Webb is Webb, he’s going to lead the league in innings again and keep his team in games.
Hicks has unbelievable stuff but he’s still figuring out how to be a starter. If he runs out of steam again like last season you just put him in the pen and make Birdsong a starter or call up Harrison.
Ray looks good. He’s going to have some hiccups but he can still rack up K’s.
Then there’s Roupp. I like to compare him to a young Luke Skywalker. He can use the force but he’s not a Jedi yet. When he figures things out he’s going to be a force. Until then, you take the good with the bad and hope his offense keeps him in games.
There’s a lot to like about this team. They’re not perfect but much better than the 80-82 team of 2024. That equates to a possible playoff team.
I agree with most of your points Dave.
I questioned the Verlander signing, and still do, especially with the breakout of Carson Seymour. Still have hope for Justin though.
He’s run into some bad luck situations, and his stuff isn’t really bad. Maybe he can turn the corner. Plenty of options if not. Really good to see the team running and defending well. Lee and Adames can only improve with time. Fun season ahead !
I really want to see Justin succeed too.
I’d love to see him incorporate a sinker to induce more groundballs and use the stellar defense behind him. He’s not the same guy he was even 3 years ago, he has to adjust.
It was luck when they won 107 games and it’s luck now. Talent wise they are an 85-90 win team at best. Probably the 4th best team in their own division on paper.
But the game isn’t played on paper so they rely on a ton of luck and outlier seasons from guys that good teams wouldn’t even start.
Not hating. Just being realistic. Most would agree that they were projected to finish 4th in their own division.
In fact the lowly A’s may have a brighter future than the Giants. The A’s lineup is stacked. If they ever got any pitching they would be dangerous.
I don’t think the Giants scare anyone. Let’s be real I mean position for position they aren’t that good. I think they are just postponing the inevitable.
lol. You got to love a “not hating, I’m a just a tough guy” self delusion.
M a y b. We’ll see
Their pitching, especially their pen, has been keeping them in the games. Assuming they’re not burnt out by July/August, potentially they make the playoffs but their offense is just not keeping them in games with a 99 wRC+.
My vote is for: The Giants will miss the playoffs, but exceed expectations and finish with a winning record.