When the Cardinals announced over the offseason that they were moving Willson Contreras to first base, it came as something of a surprise given that they we just two years into a five-year deal they gave him to fill the shoes Yadier Molina had stood in for the past 19 years. Signing a bat-first catcher to replace one of the best defenders in baseball history behind the dish was a bold move, and while Contreras hit an excellent .263/.367/.468 (129 wRC+) in his first two seasons as a Cardinal, his tenure behind the plate did not come without controversy. St. Louis moved him off catcher briefly during his first season with the club after complaints about his glove. Last year, he missed time with a broken arm sustained when he was hit by a swing after the organization suggested he move closer to the plate to improve his defense.
If those controversies set the table for the decision to move Contreras away from catching, the departure of incumbent first baseman Paul Goldschmidt for the Bronx this winter and the club’s two up-and-coming catchers Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages making solid cases for more playing time made the possibility that much more realistic. After all, a position change for Contreras would allow the Cardinals to make some progress on their desired youth movement without needing to pull off a trade, and there was at least a possibility that Contreras’s strong bat from his first two seasons with the club could blossom even further if he didn’t need to split his focus between hitting and catching.
Unfortunately, that’s not how things have gone so far. In 24 games this season, Contreras has slashed just .200/.269/.305 this year. That leaves him with a 62 wRC+ that’s not only well below average but also extremely uncharacteristic of him. While questions about Contreras’s defensive abilities have dogged him since the early days of his MLB career with the Cubs, his bat has never been in doubt as he’s posted above-average numbers at the plate by wRC+ in every single year of his career until now. A .258/.353/.461 (121 wRC+) hitter for his career, Contreras had elevated his game to another level since the start of the 2022 season with a .256/.367/.467 (133 wRC+) line across the past three seasons.
Has all of that changed in his age-33 season? It certainly wouldn’t be the first time that a catcher in his early-to-mid 30s suffered a sudden and drastic decline, although moving to first base should at least theoretically help preserve Contreras’s health. The frustrating reality of the veteran’s situation is that, while below-average offense can be acceptable behind the plate, first base is a bat-first position where he’ll need offensive results in order to stick as a regular. That’s even more true with youngsters like Alec Burleson and Luken Baker ready to step in and take their own shots at the first base job if given the opportunity.
As lackluster as Contreras’s work at the dish has been so far this year, it’s not as if all hope is lost. The veteran’s .270 BABIP this year matches his career low, and if it bounces back to something closer to his .309 career level, that would go a long way to lifting his production. Another reason for optimism is that he’s still putting the barrel on the ball fairly often. While his 9.1% barrel rate and 40.9% hard-hit rate this year are the lowest figures he’s posted in either category since 2018, they both remain solid. When combined with his top-of-the-line bat speed, it’s easy to imagine Contreras being able to generate more power than he’s shown so far.
On the other hand, Contreras is already more than 100 plate appearances into his first season as a first baseman, and he’s currently matching his career-high in strikeout rate (28.6%) and pairing that with a career-low walk rate of 6.7%. Contreras has always been a bit of a streaky hitter, as exemplified by his 2018 season where he carried a 123 wRC+ into the All-Star break before hitting a paltry .193/.282/.280 across his final 50 games, so it stands to reason that he may well be just one hot streak away from getting back to being the bat he’s shown himself to be throughout his career. Even with that in mind, the signs of declining plate discipline and reduced power are concerning. That’s especially true when combined with his age and the years of wear and tear he accumulated behind the plate.
How do MLBTR readers think the rest of the 2025 season will go for Contreras? Will he be able to bounce back and post numbers similar to what he’s offered in each of the last three seasons? Or will his first year as a first baseman be the worst offensive season of his career? Have your say in the poll below:
He’s old now he’s going down like arenado and goldy
My bold prediction for 2025 is that BOTH Contreras brothers will have top three National League stats for players with catcher eligibility. The short sample means little.
Watching Goldy play this year, you’d never guess he was on the decline.
He’ll do well if his .479 BABIP holds up. But 1 HR in 94 ABs might be a little weak for 1B.
After signing Contreras as the starting catcher as a Free Agent, John Mozeliak & Oli Marmol have done everything they can possibly do to make things as unpleasant as possible for Contreras!!!!
Obviously in hopes they could get him to wave is no trade contract and request to be traded.
Why in the world —- Contreras choses to be Loyal to the Cardinals when they are not Loyal to him —- is beyond me!!!
It is rather obvious John Mozeliak & Oli Marmol are doing everything within their power to derail Contreras’ baseball career, ever since they first signed him!!!!
lol yes
He’s got 12 hits in 11 games since using that Torpedo bat, including 2 doubles and 2 HRs.
There are no signs of declining plate discipline and reduced power. He had a great year at the plate in 2024. It’s only been 25 games. Tons of players are off to slow starts.
Perhaps Cubs fans shouldn’t be writing articles about Cardinals players. Try that.
Joel, you were whining about him on your last account. You are constantly talking about players that are not on the Cardinals. Where do you have room to talk?
What?
Yeah i talk about players not on the Cardinals. But i am not a writer for this site. And I don’t go out of my way to say weird things about the Cubs like this guy does about the Cardinals.
Contreras has broken out of his slump. This dude is just trying to turn nothing into something because Conteras is a former Cub and current Cardinal.
What part of “you were whining about him (Contreras) on your last account” went over your head?
Good gosh get a hobby fella
Well I said he wasn’t a very good catcher and he’s not. I said he wasn’t worth anywhere near that contract and he’s not. He’s also not a .200 hitter, He’s better than that. Basically he is what I said he was terribly overpaid and now untradeable and I’m glad he’s your problem now. Hate on me all you want. All I did was tell you the truth when you signed him.
Contreras has been good as a Cardinal. Consecutive 3 win seasons in 2023 and 2024. He’s perhaps a bit overpaid now that he isn’t catching but it’s not a massive overpay. It’s not an albatross contract at all.
UncleMike, if you had to give up either Hoerner or Happ in a trade for a #3 pitcher, which of those two would you send out,? Just curious.
The Cubs have no need for a #3 pitcher. They need a closer or a #1 pitcher. When Shaw starts hitting where does he play? Can’t do the equation without all the variables. Happ could be replaced but not if Tucker goes. Hoyer has botched things to the point that you can’t answer one question without raising 3 more. You tell me what he’s doing first and maybe I could give you an answer. PCA and Hoerner should be hitting 1-2 and Happ should be 4 in a perfect world but all that movement in front of Tucker change him? It’s working well for now. Hitting isn’t a problem. Too early to make a trade like that anyway. Sorry if I threw more mud on the problem. But like I said the roster construction is confusing at best.
Untradable because he wouldn’t waive his clause.
He seems to be more undisciplined at the plate so far this year. I usually don’t see him strike out this much, maybe trying to hit his way out of the slump. He’s been relatively decent as a Cardinal, but not worth 18m/yr. Then again, salaries increasing so much, 18m may not be that much.
Untradeable without the Cards eating a bunch of it.
Ian Happ makes 20 million a year. Is he overpaid or not?
He’s not overpaid. The NMC was stupid though.
Yeah this one is not it… he’s already rebounding last 7 games or so
Guys has been worth the contract full stop
With two young catchers coming up, maybe St. Louis should have invested in a different player that offseason, or waited. But that offseason was pretty much Judge, Contreras, and a bunch of nothing else.
He really upheld his promise of “not trying to be another Yadi”
I’ll take “overreactions to early season slumps” for $200, Alex.
He bat flipped a walk Tuesday, after he should have been struck out. Tells you all you need to know…
My best guess:
Your editor gave you this piece to write a week ago and you missed your deadline by a mile. You still finished the article to save face but in return for the missed deadline they actually posted this article to teach you a lesson.
Oh dang!
What would Tom Hanks say? “Wilson!”
You should have added a category called:
* He already broke out of his slump and has an .851 OPS over his last 12 games.
1-2 others mentioned it, but it feels like someone started a column and felt compelled to follow through, even though the point of the article was now moot.
Its Nick Deeds. He is the Bob Nightengale of MLBTR. Just read the headline and skip the article if you want all the facts or a legit take on a subject. You just won’t get it from him.
Grass isn’t always greener on the other side.
As a cubs fan so glad they didn’t listen to the “cORe” fans. All but Rizzo been a complete failure
Hated to see Rizzo go, moreso hated to see Schwarber go (for nothing!).
We’re still waiting for that dynasty Cubs fans claimed.
He pimped a BB versus ATL the other night. Bat flipped. A sign of needing a good thing to go his way.
A more interesting poll would be if Cody Bellinger can get back on track.
Belli is much more interesting. He has stats that point both ways.
Contreras is hitting .304 over the last 14 days. He is showing signs of warming up. I would have dropped him down in the batting order during his ice cold period.
This exact same poll could be re-stated for the following players: Semien, Santander, Pedersen, Chisholm, Suarez, Walker, Diaz, Alvarez, etc etc
A bunch of players off to similar or worse starts. Bad month, most players will have them. When it happens at the start of the season, some will panic.
Hes already been back the past week and a half.
Is this the MLB for Kids site?
Contreras will have above average numbers by the end of the year.
Goldy has better coaches and a much better manager, with baseball sense, than he had last season.
Also better park to hit in
Team expect to fail and sent that message loud and clear. What’s with Contreras being traded for and no longer cares to catch. If we think Pages or Herera Are the answers, think again. Just waiting for the year to end and letting Ollie get the loses he deserves. I have to laugh at this team as we think we have multiple interchangeable pieces of star players when in fact, nobody’s good enough to earn or win any position outright Ollie and rusty dusty. Just think they’re wizards at their jobs. What a freaking joke.
Getting blue for the redbirds.
I’m sure that Contreras is still playing for the Cubs. He’s doing great ,just taking the Cardinals money.