2:40pm: Per Zack Meisel of The Athletic, Bieber will be shut down until the middle of next week and be re-examined at that point.
9:39am: Guardians righty Shane Bieber had been eyeing a return to the majors late this month, but that plan is on hold. Bieber felt discomfort in his surgically repaired elbow after a bullpen session between rehab starts this week, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic. He’s headed for a consultation with Dr. Keith Meister, who performed the right-hander’s Tommy John surgery last April.
It’s an ominous development for a Guardians club that recently lost fellow right-hander Ben Lively to Tommy John surgery. Bieber, 30, made his first rehab start with Cleveland’s Rookie-level affiliate in the Arizona Complex League on May 31 and could scarcely have performed better. While the Guards monitored his workload closely and lifted him after just 2 1/3 innings, he punched out five of the nine batters he faced and allowed only a single along the way. Bieber was throwing a bullpen session Tuesday in preparation for what was supposed to be a rehab start with Double-A Akron yesterday when the discomfort surfaced.
Presumably, the Guardians will provide more information on Bieber’s status within the next few days. In the meantime, it seems fair to expect that his return to the big league roster will be pushed back to at least some extent. Cleveland will want to proceed with caution regarding its longtime ace.
Bieber reached free agency this past offseason but returned to the Guardians on a two-year, $26MM contract — though the second season of that pact is a player option. He’s being paid $10MM in 2025, and the option comes with a $4MM buyout. So long as he’s healthy by season’s end, he seems quite likely to turn down that player option and re-test free agency, but the question of his health (or lack thereof) is once again front and center.
With Bieber’s status again up in the air, it looks as though Cleveland’s rotation for the foreseeable future will include righties Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Luis Ortiz and Slade Cecconi, as well as southpaw Logan Allen. It’s a solid group overall, but each has had some degree of red flag this season. Williams (13.2%), Ortiz (11.8%) and Allen (11.3%) all have problematic walk rates, while Bibee (1.82 HR/9) and Cecconi (2.66 HR/9) have both been quite homer-prone (albeit in only 20 1/3 innings for Cecconi). Cleveland starters rank 20th in the majors with a collective 4.07 ERA, but that includes 44 2/3 innings of 3.22 ERA ball for the aforementioned Lively, who’ll likely be out through the first half of next season following his UCL repair.
To state the obvious, this is not ideal.
Thank you for clearing that up. I wasn’t quite sure.
You’re welcome. 🤣
Ruh roh.
RUH ROH.
Just say it already, prolonging TJ
Experiencing soreness 1 rehab start after having TJS is not an automatic assumption that he needs the surgery again. It will delay his rehab for sure, but it’s pretty common for guys rehabbing from TJS to experience soreness at some point during rehab.
It’s not what you want.
🤦♂️
Bieber seems like The No Luck version of deGrom. Whereas deGrom’s healthy periods have occurred at the perfect time so that his injuries and stints on the I.L. didn’t really limit or obliterate his market, Bieber seems like he can’t catch a break in that regard.
Wonder how his career will ultimately go. How many ‘upside’/’bounce back’ / ‘re-establish himself’ contracts he will get before his arm just gives out on him.
He’s 31…. maybe 3-4 years and another $100M if he’s lucky? *if*
He’s going to get more deals from teams to see if they can buy low and get a premium arm.
That’s a lot of money for someone who doesn’t pitch in games
I agree it is a lot, but someone with Bieber’s best seasons and upside feels like a Blake Snell type, who will get a decent 1-2 year AAV just to re-establish himself, something in the $35M to $50M guaranteed range on a 2 year deal, if not just 1 year/$20M and another 1 year/$12.5M w/ incentives, etc. and if he hangs around with up and down results over 3-4 more years, he could still rack up another $60M or so in salaries, even if it’s all based on what could have been as opposed to what is.
Lesser pitchers with worse track records have earned $15M to $25M guarantees on ‘upside’ style 1-2 year deals- like, say, Andrew Heaney.
Concern with Bieber is his velocity was plummeting before the injury, he’s the kind of guy who might get pounded if he loses any more off his fastball. Buyer beware for me.
That’s yet another reason I wonder about his earning potential going forward. He might be cooked… but again, lots of ‘cooked’ pitchers have been given 1-2 if not 3 more years of ‘upside potential’ lucrative salaries based on their past peak performance, despite all the evidence indicating their true pitching value days are over…
Heck, I think a few guys have made an extra few tens of millions on multiple contracts without ever seeing the mound of a big league game ever again.
So you’re saying the Rockies should sign him? 8 years $230M Sound right?
Bieber on the Rockies for 11 years/$320.4025M would be perfect. Absolutely perfect.
his velocity was plummeting before the injury
====================
His career 4-seam was 92.5, and it was 92.0 in 20204 before the injury. Everyone’s velocity slows as you age. He also had a 20/1 K/W in 12 IPs.
Rockies should trade-and-sign for him now before they fall further behind in the NL West race. Time is of the essence
He just turned 30 the day he made that rehab start, for what it’s worth, but yes — pretty rotten timing on his injuries and setbacks. Not that there’s ever a “good” time to blow your elbow out, but five months before your first trip to the market is particularly sub-optimal.
Happy birthday it was not.
Reality check: At the age of 30, Bieber has already earned nearly $40 million in salary. Future earnings aside, that seems pretty darned lucky to me.
Reality check…. ?
I go by the economics of the industry, not the economics of normal people.
I am not a Shane Bieber fan, nor am I a Shane Bieber nay-sayer- he’s neither here nor there for me, but he’s absolutely become one of those ‘what if’ pitchers who at one point had a trajectory along the lines of a deGrom or a Cole or a Verlander, etc. a guy who’d stick around til he was 40 or 45 and earn multiple 4-8 year deals at $25M-$40M a season and now it looks like there’s a chance he might not stick around the game through age 35 and might not ever get that ‘mega’ deal of $25M-$40M at 4+ seasons, but he could get lucky on one or two 1-2 year, $20-$25M a year deals based on his previous performance and potential to bounce back.
I’m sorry if you’re personally sensitive about other people’s income relative to yours, but the reality is that his lifetime earnings as a top of the rotation pitcher are relatively paltry and his market has cratered relative to its peak potential.
Lots of people get underpaid or unlucky in their industry while still making a ton of money.
There are industries where someone might be making, say, $250k a year, but they have contemporaries or less qualified, less experienced people making $500k because their comparable got lucky where they didn’t.
Look-I grew up with friends whose families made $20 million a year and families who subsisted off $40k a year total for the entire family.
Some of those kids with the families making $40k a year thought someone making $100k a year was *Rich!* and the kids whose families made $20 million a year thought anybody making $1 million a year or less were dirt poor failures.
It’s all relative.
First, I am not sensitive about the money others earn. That’s a foolish assumption on your part.
Second: What’s relative is indeed what other people make. Shane Bieber is wealthy by any standard. He’s been fortunate that his health has allowed him to earn that much. Seriously, you needed that many words to make your “point.” Kinda silly.
He’s not wealthy by *any* standard. Very well off, but not *wealthy*.
Depends on what state he lives in, his lifestyle choices, his future earning, how an investment portfolio does, if he has children or how many children he has, if he’s lucky or unlucky medically, etc.
I’d guesstimate he’s made around $20M after taxes, agent fees, etc. give or take a couple million.
I know that wouldn’t last me the rest of my life at age 30 if I had become accustomed to a certain level of annual cost of living.
Look, I’m just gonna go ahead and answer your question with a long wind- hold on… okay that fart lasted a solid 4 seconds. There you go.
He bought a $4.65M house, with closing costs typically in the $115k range and a can imply a typical annual overhead of $200k minimum, plus a likely $200k or more in personal annual costs (food, travel, entertainment, maybe even personal trainers, etc.). By the reality of inflation, even modest inflation, that will go up to $300k-$500k a year overall over the next few decades.
Lets say he has personally spent $200k to $600k a year, plus the house. He likely has about $12M to $16M in cash… that will last him about 20 years before he would have to downgrade his lifestyle to account for rising costs, etc. with decades more life ahead of him.
For having trillionaire in your SN you sure have a very simplistic view of very complicated financial portfolios. Do you really think their only income line item is their playing salary? You are also confusing wealth and responsibility with said wealth as being the same thing; just because MC Hammer didn’t know what to do with his money and became broke doesn’t mean the guy wasn’t wealthy.
Social Security, 401(k), Roth IRA, retirement portfolio, individual stocks, angel investments in the market and in various side businesses, HYSA’s, etc.
My viewpoint isn’t simplistic, I just wasn’t going into every single avenue of financial health and maintenance.
Also yeah, for all the guys that made straight cash in large amounts and blew it (Hammer, Scott Storch, etc.) there have been celebrities who made relatively modest salaries and created vast wealth through shrewd financial planning and successful investments.
It’s why so many ex players become restaurant chain franchisees or real estate developers or go into tech investing, etc.
Or like, Kenny G being an early angel investor in Starbucks and that’s supposedly made him more money than his entire music career,. Etc.
I get it.
I’m just saying I can’t imagine Bieber considers himself set for life at this point and was operating with assumption of another decade or more of earning $25M to $40M per season.
Also- I have personally made most of my money investing in penny stocks with Stratton Oakmont and Madoff Financial Services.
Good ole Bernie treated you well huh?
He gave great after care and was a solid big spoon after he did me dirty…. Financially speaking and wining and dining-wise… ahem.
What, another TJ already?
Mayb the 1st 1 wasnt performed properly?
Honestly TJ is always rushed these days, I feel like a general rule of thumb should be if they pitched in the previous season when the injury occurred they should miss the entire next season.
It’s not gonna be for everyone, but seems like TJ is being treated like a 6 month turn around.
Personally think it should be a minimum of 2 seasons out with the surgery simply because it takes so long to recover.
Jarred K?
I say go 5 seasons just to be really extra safe.
lol ‘the guards’
See you in 2027.
I can’t seem to pull up all the data, but it seems to me that these surgeries aren’t nearly as effective anymore. Players are coming back and still dealing with issues after surgery, some having to get another surgery altogether.
Beiber for Megill straight up, would Cleveland take this deal? I think Megill is awful but some of these GMs look at his analytics and think “Wow hes great”
Why would either side make this deal? I’m not asking it rhetorically to imply anything, I’m genuinely asking why did this trade proposal come to mind for you, out of genuine curiosity.
@TrillionaireTeamOperator Beiber is on a 1 year deal while Megill has multiple years left and hes going to be the oddman out when Manaea or Montas comes back. Beiber is a lot better then Megill which helps the Mets in the short term
How would this help Cle?
It wouldn’t. but MLBTR is *the* place for guys saying stuff like
“My Team gets Max Fried from the Yankees, Yankees pay all the remaining money on the deal and then they also get Kris Bubic from the Royals after the Royals sign Bubic to 10 years/$450M and the Royals pay the entirety of the contract and then we also get Aaron Judge and the Yankees also pay the rest of that contract and we give up whatever albatross deals we have we’d like to get out from under and they take on all of that money for us as well. Who says no?”
@TrillionaireTeamOperator if the Royals tried to trade Bubic for say Garret Crochet before the offseason started, the Whitesox would have died of laughter and hung up the phone. Now all of a sudden, Bubic is a hot commodity. He had great periphial numbers before this season but was never able to put it all together. Megill is a similar case. I think Megill sucks and shouldn’t be on the team, but there are GMs out there that think they can fix him up. Bieber is an expiring contract with an injury history
I’d like to see a list of all the pitchers who had shoulder or elbow surgery so far in 2025. I wonder how many pitchers walked away with “sorearms” before TJ became available.
TJ surgery would not be available if not for Frank Jobe, who belongs in the Hall of Fame alongside Marvin Miller and other off-field contributors.
Just my guess here, but I am hoping that everyone in my roto leagues give up on him. Setbacks in TJS is a near certainty, but they are often maybe a month.
No Bieber fever in Cleveland for a while.
Is he related to Justin Bieber
The Curse of the Tribe, this team is fading. Never should’ve changed the name.