This week's mailbag includes questions on Tarik Skubal, Nick Castellanos, Ian Happ, Pablo Lopez, and much more.
Abner asks:
The Tarik Skubal trade rumors dominated the news during the past weekend. The NY Mets has been mentioned as a possible destination for the Detroit Tigers' ace. But what would be a realistic prospect capital cost the Mets will have to live with if they really want to get a guy as talented as Skubal (even for just 1 year of team control)? Now, Freddy Peralta could also be available in the trade market, and he for sure should be a more affordable option than Skubal. Knowing the way David Stearns values the farm system of the team and his connection with the Brewers, which trade has more probability to get done , a trade for Peralta or a trade for Skubal? Thanks in advance.
There's never been any indication Skubal and the Tigers were close on a contract extension, nor is there a sign the team's willingness to trade him has changed. Steve Adams and I differ on the likelihood of an offseason trade happening. In a discussion last week, Steve pegged the chances of a Skubal trade this winter at 0.25%. I'm more in the range of 5-10%.
Steve wrote in his live chat yesterday, "I think the Tigers would be crazy to truly make Skubal available. They’re just not going to be better in 2026 without him, regardless of the return, unless you’re just banking on Skubal getting hurt. He’s the best pitcher in baseball (sorry, Paul Skenes, but you can be No. 2 for now). I would absolutely just ride out the year and try to sign him in free agency. The draft pick after the first round isn’t nothing, and if the Tigers are earnest about being in a World Series window right now, then trading Skubal isn’t something I’d spend much time entertaining. Let teams make the crazy offers, sure, but they’d have to be offered something outrageous to consider it."
My stance is that I can't peer into the mind of Tigers owner Christopher Ilitch. Some owners do trade superstar players in the offseason before their walk year if they determine they cannot sign him. We've seen it with Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and others. I think Steve might say that Skubal is different from those players, the teams are in somewhat different spots, and/or their owners had different philosophies.
I find Skubal unlikely to be traded this winter, but it wouldn't shock me.
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Trading Skubal iant an actual rumor its just a thought that originated from some fan of one of the big market teams and then this site panders to it because those teams have lots of fans.
Skubal isn’t available. At all. This isnt a rebuilding club its a contender.
Though I’m a Mets fan, it is ridiculous how much ink is being spilled on the subject when there’s very little chance the Tigers trade him. So you’re right and I refuse to read the many speculations which are worthless. Having said that, I disagree with Mr. Dierkes. McLean himself has real ace potential and they’d be crazy to trade him. His starts this year were better than “very good”.
The Mets have shown an unwillingness to trade their prospects. In fact when they traded away Verlander and Scherzer they ate a bunch of salary in the deals in order to get prospects back. This strategy should set them up for contending long term although it didnt work in 2025.
What do you disagree with? I did not say the Mets should trade McLean for Skubal.
Dear Joel didn’t read your analysis carefully
Here’s what you wrote. While it’s not a literal recommendation, it’s close: “Nolan McLean was the first name I thought of when considering the Mets and how they could get the Tigers’ attention for Skubal.”. You also wrote: “That’s why a McLean-led package stands out to me.”
first sentence of my answer
“There’s never been any indication Skubal and the Tigers were close on a contract extension, nor is there a sign the team’s willingness to trade him has changed.”
There has to be a chance. The Brewers weren’t a rebuilding club when they traded Burnes or Devin Williams either. They had to decide whether what they’d recoup would give them a better crack at a WS over a longer window v one more of year of production.
Ideally I’d like to see Detroit sign Skubal long term. But if that’s not going to happen they have 2 top 5 prospects in baseball and other young talent that will be there on top of the haul that Skubal would return. That team could be the favorite in the central for the next half decade if they got multiple young controllable pieces for Skubal.
The thing is, when the brewers traded Hader during a post season race, they had Williams as a fallback. When they traded Burnes, they had Peralta to fall back on. When they traded Williams, they had Megill to fall back on. Trading Peralta now, while they have a lot of great arms, they don’t have somebody to really lean on. I think it would be a bit more likely to see Megill traded, because they do have Uribe, who could step into that role. Trading Peralta, would leave them without Peralta, Woodruff and Quintana from last years rotation. I don’t see them trading Peralta for anything less than an absolute haul.
I’m not sure Castellanos has a future in MLB. His mutiny against the most mild mannered manager in the game was really disappointing especially during a playoff run.
Not only that but he is completely lost at the plate. When you’re one of the very worst defenders and baserunners in all of MLB there’s nothing left but hitting and what you bring to the clubhouse. He fails miserably in all four. I will be shocked if the Phillies move him even if they eat significantly more than half his $20M salary.
Bad contract for a worse contract like Arenado may be the way to go. As someone mentioned before, Castellanos and Bohm for Arenado and Herrera may be an idea.
I’m not sure about mutiny but he was clearly frustrated and not happy. I think you nailed the problem though, mild mannered manager. Thomson was clearly outmanaged in the playoffs the last few years, he seems to be too timid. It seems he’s lost the locker room, not that there’s really any big items, but he’s clearly not equipped to put guys in their place or have tough conversations. Based on the interviews, the problem wasn’t that he was getting platooned (which I’m sure he would have hated regardless) but that Thomson didn’t tell him.
There have been enough reports with Strahm recently and others that seems to show a disconnect between coaches and players being on the same page.
RicoD
I’m not sure about mutiny but he was clearly frustrated and not happy.
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He has no right to express any of that. He has 1.1 bWAR in four years with Philly.
Referencing war is a straw man argument. We all know defensive metrics has greatly undervalued his production and would have benefitted from more DH time which wasn’t available at all for 4 years for good reason with schwarber.
“No right to express any of that”. In what world is a human unable to express frustration. Frustration can be with personal production, transparency/relationship with coaching staff, or a bunch of other factors that lead to challenges on and off the field. But the notion someone doesn’t have a right to speak is such a low eq response.
Fancy! Sorry man. Dissing your manager when you are benched for performing as one of the worst outfielders in the big leagues, when your team is playoff-bound right for the LA juggernaut, is — no war reference here — selfish and unprofessional. It will get you booted. And many teams won’t touch the guy now. Better?
No reason to say sorry, the war reference was for Joe.
Everything you just said seems like a fair take, my only question is what did he say to diss the manager? Like what was specifically said that was a diss.
“and would have benefitted from more DH time”
He has a 100 OPS+ in four seasons in Philly. If anything, him spending time at DH may have actually *diminished* his overall value. You’re not a fan of WAR but Andrew McCutcheon finished with a near 100 OPS+ this year and his value was 0.1 bWAR.
“In what world is a human unable to express frustration.”
He has every right to express it but fans also have every right to rip on a bad baseball player who is publicly complaining about his diminished role in a super unprofessional manner.
my only question is what did he say to diss the manager?
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It got into the news. That’s enough. If you go into the manager’s office before the game and ask about playing time, no one would’ve noticed.
RTC agreed everyone has every right to express but for you and Joe, I’ve still not been pointed to an example of where he was publicly disrespectful to management or publicly complained. He has looked at times discontent and frustrated, but in my opinion the media’s narrative to drum up stories… like those by Matt Gelb, seems to be headline chasing more than anything else.
youtube.com/shorts/DKWEjuMOyec?si=x-2TqCjg0XmguXtS
This is the angle I see it from. They are clearly trying to create a story, I think the questions were answered well. Again, he can absolutely be criticized for performance or handling certain things but I personally see the media’s handling in the clip above and others as flat out disrespectful.
I also commend Thomson for shooting escalations down saying this is not a news story topic. Nick wants to play everyday, this isn’t a headline. He’s a gamer and “wears his heart on his sleeve”. So he appreciates the benefit, and challenge, with a passionate player. At times it’s very frustrating and at times it’s very rewarding.
And I didn’t hear that Steve or Tim think it’s very realistic either. But you can’t know any more than they know, You saying there is a ZERO.chance is just your opinion. Now I tend to agree it ain’t gonna happen. But keep in mind this site is trying to make money and the way you do that is through eyeballs. And there are a lot of eyeballs willing to click on any Skubal rumor. Its just a fact.
So, Alex has had TWO emails answered within the span of a few “editions?” Is it correct for me to infer that you aren’t receiving an overwhelming number of questions? I haven’t submitted questions because I’ve assumed you folks don’t have time to read and respond to all of them. Am I wrong? This inquiring mind would love to know. Thanks!
There are fewer people in the subscriber chats, so you have a better chance of getting your question answered.
Any team going after Suarez or Schwarber may take castellanos in trade with prospects and cash considerations to offset the QO they are being saddled with…. Silly dilly
To let a once-in-a-decade talent just walk should be a fireable offence (unless you’re a WS favourite). The chance that he’s going to sign, unless paid a king’s ransom, is remote. By getting ahead of it before Skubal is injured or begins to self-regulate with a big payday as motivation, the Tigers can set themselves up and fill numerous holes. Getting him for 1 season probably caps the return at 3 pieces (an A, an A- & B- prospects) would be in reach if there are 2-3 or more bidding…
I can’t see Detroit trading him. They are a piece or 2 away from being a serious world series contender. I can see them adding but not subtracting.
Tigers will not trade Skubal this offseason unless they get an offer nobody would refuse. They are a pretty good team. Definitely have playoff aspirations for 2026. For some reason if they are totally out of the race in July they will trade him for a haul. It would be suicidal for that franchise to trade him this winter.
It’s precisely because McLean is the first name that you thought of that he won’t be traded in any deal. The idea of getting Skubal would be to pair him with McLean in the rotation. I don’t really understand why anyone would think the Mets would trade a pitcher they have years of control over, at that talent level, and trade him away for what would be a 1 year rental Boras client who IS GOING TO TEST THE MARKET. It just defies logic.
Just for clarification, this post was not to suggest that the author suggested trading McLean for Skubal. This was more aimed at the many Met and Tiger fans who have suggested McLean be involved in any trade like this.
The only way the Tigers trade Skubal is after the All Star Break if they’re completely out of contention in the weakest division in baseball, which is to say, it’s all very unlikely. If the Mets want Skubal they’re just gonna have to wait until he hits free agency.
Skubal over Skenes? Debatable at best.
For the right price, the Tigers woukd trade Skubal.
It would take a huge package
like what the Padres gave the Nats for 1 1/2 years of Soto:
SS CJ Abrams
OF James Wood
OF Robert Hassel III
LHSP McKenzie Gore
Closer Susanna
+
A salary cap would be the begin of the end for MLB. Giving into billionaires who lie and refuse to provide any proof they are not making hundreds of millions off the backs of players is just repugnant. The two public teams, Braves and Blue Jays, are rolling in so much excess cash they don’t even know where to spend it. Every team is making huge profits while the billionaire owners continue to prove just how easy it is to fool Americans.