The Pirates announced today that they have signed right-handed pitcher Seth Hernandez. They selected him with their first-round pick, sixth overall, at last week’s draft. Jim Callis of MLB.com reports that the signing bonus is $7.25MM, which is about $300K shy of the $7,558,600 slot value for the sixth overall pick. Callis notes it’s the highest bonus ever for a high school pitcher.
Heading into the draft, Hernandez was considered one of the top 25 guys available, though there was a wide range of opinions on exactly where to rank him among those top guys. Baseball America had him second overall, MLB Pipeline had him at #3, ESPN at #4, FanGraphs at #9, while Keith Law of The Athletic had him way down at #21.
All evaluators generally agree that there is ace potential here. Hernandez sits in the mid-90s with his fastball and can push triple digits. His changeup and curveball are considered great weapons. He has a slider which is inconsistent but could develop into another useful pitch in time. He also could have been a viable hitter/shortstop prospect, though his pitching potential is so strong that it’s agreed that he should be on the mound. The Bucs announced him as a right-handed pitcher, so that seems to be their thinking as well.
Law’s bearishness seems to be more about high school pitchers in general, as opposed to any specific criticism of Hernandez. “The history of high school pitchers taken in the first round is dismal, however, given their high attrition rates,” Law writes, “and as talented as Hernandez is, he’s still in that same category. There’s at least No. 2 starter upside here, but the risk of any high school arm is that they get hurt or don’t have the command and control to get to the majors.” Kiley McDaniel of ESPN mentions in his Hernandez blurb that some clubs will never take a prep righty with a top-ten pick.
On the more optimistic side of things, BA’s writeup says that Hernandez has the talent be ranked alongside recent prep picks like Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore and Jackson Jobe. In the 2017 draft, Greene and Gore went second and third overall, respectively. Both have now become strong major leaguers and arguable aces. Jobe went third overall in 2021 and still has a limited track record. He won’t be able to build on it anytime soon either, as he recently required Tommy John surgery. However, he had become one of the top pitching prospects in the sport prior to this year.
The Pirates haven’t done a great job developing hitters but their work with pitchers is stronger. Their rotation currently features homegrown pitchers Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Mike Burrows. If he weren’t currently recovering from surgery, Jared Jones would be in there as well. Bubba Chandler is one of the best pitching prospects right now and he’s pitching in the Triple-A rotation. Tom Harrington and Hunter Barco are also notable Pittsburgh draftees who are there in Indianapolis alongside Chandler.
Hernandez is still quite young, having just turned 19 less than a month ago. It will likely take him a few years but he naturally wants to follow that path. “He shoved yesterday,” Hernandez said of Skenes, per Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “and he’s probably going to shove for the rest of his life. If I could kind of follow his footsteps, that’d be great.”
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images
I really hope he works out for the Pirates, because it’ll vindicate a lot of Angels fans who wanted this kid. (While at the same time, I do hope that Bremner does work out for the Angels)
Both organizations deserve some good vibes hopefully they both work out.
Angels messed up. It could still work out for them but they passed on maybe the best hs prospect of all time and a extremely proven college arm. That high of pick I want to say I got the most upside if not the highest floor. They can’t say either. You can beat the odds but it’s best to go with the odds. They could look brilliant. They still got a high 1st round talent so they didn’t do anything too crazy.
Sure. What about them?
@AI GM
The argument has been that Bremner fell off the rankings because of a bad start to the season. He’d been higher up in the rankings before the start of the season. Some of that was due to his mother getting sick and dying from cancer and that he performed better the worse she got. Minassian has been prioritizing players with talent and grit. Whether this works out or not remains to be seen. Its worked with Neto, Schanuel and Moore, to some degree – bad overall stats, but he had several very clutch hits before he got hurt.
It failed Hindenburg level with Moore. They passed on the best player in the draft 5 tool ss cf for a 2b.
TROLL
Educate on what?
Let’s go!!!!!!!
This is the guy i was hoping the Cardinals took. He’s a very different pitcher than Doyle he has polish that I have never seen before from a high school pitcher. Hopefully both guys have good long careers.
Best hs prospect I’ve ever seen. Better than Taillon who Pirates took #2 over Machado.
Hopefully he’s ready by the time they trade Skenes for a package of mid level prospects as they enter their 15th year of rebuilding
How do you know what they’ll receive mid level prospects if it hasn’t happened yet? You probably would’ve hated the Nationals return for Soto. Unoriginal comment.
He should be if healthy.
Naw Pittsburgh isn’t letting the Chris archer trade happen on Cherringtons watch.
Will it be elite as some expect no, but 5+ top 25 prospects is valid on the right system back sure.
Skenes will get traded when though is anyone’s guess.
With the caveat that the Pirates will never win because Bob Nutting is a parasitic silver spoon who’d be an assistant night manager at Shop’N’Save if his daddy didn’t have money…
Their best path to at least (realistically) HOPE to win is that Jones, Chandler, Hernandez, etc. are great, that they develop a few young bats in the next two-three years and that they can add all of that to the return of a Skenes trade and THAT group might be just young, cheap and good enough to win.
Hernandez being a potential ace is the key to there being even a slight chance of all of that happening.
Nutting is losing $ yet gave out the largest signing bonus ever. Man loves Pittsburgh. Loves the Pirates. Build him a statue city of Pittsburgh
if Nutting was truly losing money, he’d sell the team
Nah. He could lose money, report the losses.
He’s got other assets and revenue streams. Meanwhile the asset (any mlb team) grows exponentially in value regardless of any negative association with Nutting.
Yep Nutting just says he wants to leave it to his kids. He has to because he can’t sell the team! No one wants it in Pittsburgh! He spent hundreds of millions on a Pittsburgh Pirates paperweight that no one wants!!!!!!!!
that’s what you keep saying but offer no evidence to back up your claims
his children want nothing to do with baseball
Well they children are stuck with it because he can’t sell it. So doesn’t matter what they want. Maybe he could leave it to a charity. PNC park can become low income housing.
Blow hard ! Go away!!
Yes, and do it all on taxpayer money. You know, the way he likes it and is accustomed to
Utter nonsense many groups have publicly offered to buy the team. If the owner is unhappy there is an easy solution, sell the team. All this unhappiness can be over and bank a billion dollars in capital appreciation.
Mike, Nutting is not unhappy, not when he’s making a handsome profit each year thanks to myriad MLB revenue streams
Mark Cuban said as much in an interview last year.
Poor kid. Welcome to the worst run organization in professional sports.
I think he will be able to deal with it with $7.25 million.
Yet somehow they were able to give him the largest signing bonus in the history of baseball according to mlbtr.
Nutting is going bankrupt to give you a winner Pittsburgh. What a great man. If I was losing $ like the world class investigative journalist DK reported I would have cheaped out on the draft. Not Nutting though. He wants to win even if it mean financial ruin for himself.
you must be working for the PIrates
Still peddling your baloney, eh Rich?
Pittsburgh is one of the top five most profitable teams in baseball with a drastically inferior product. This is constantly linked. Internet gets all kinds of out there types.
AI GM had him at #1. Law #21. Will see who is right. Just hopefully he stays healthy so we can find out.
Number 21 is ridiculous. Laws take was that because hes a high school pitcher the risk is higher but Hernandez is older and actually know how to pitch unlike someone like Riley Pint. Unless he has a major injury that he can’t come back from this is a sure thing top of the rotation guy here.
These gms are idiots. AI is decades ahead of these dinosaurs. Highschool arms aren’t more risky. They are drastically less risky. College arms have little to zero projection in them. Had more coaches working with them. Most importantly more mileage on them. You should be targeting hs arms and settling for college arms.
you just can’t let the size of Pittsburgh’s market alone in any Pirates article
You’re obsessed with this, Richard
“Stop calling it a small market, she said it was the perfect sized market!!!”
you’re like a broken record regardless
Payroll is too high. I very much preferred Tauchman at 1.9m vs Pham 4m.
Your “facts” have been dispelled repeatedly here by numerous fans. Yet to your credit, you keep showing up to push the idea that the fans are the problem. Does Nutting know he has such a good cheerleader continually shaking his Pom poms for him?
You are fiscally stupid.
F off!
That’s the spirit. Jarz has a strong troll vibe.
After hearing him speak on the Pirates broadcast tonight, I’m calling shotgun on the Seth Hernandez bandwagon. Kid’s special.
Agreed Scott. He’ll be part of a perpetual rebuild in ‘30
Keller trying like hell to pitch his way to another team and leave this loser organization.
Nutting seems to have the money to pay an unproven draft pick but doesn’t have the money to bring in a decent hitting outfielder in the offseason.