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2025 Amateur Draft

What Other Competitive Balance Round Draft Picks Could Be Traded This Winter?

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The Competitive Balance Rounds are a pair of bonus rounds within the MLB draft, designed to give an extra pick to the game’s smaller-market teams.  Teams that fall within either the bottom 10 in revenues and market size are eligible, and since 2017, the league determined the eligible teams based on a formula involving market score, revenues, and winning percentage.  The first of the two Competitive Balance Rounds (CBR-A) comes right before the start of the second round, and CBR-B comes right after the second round.  For the 2025 draft, a total of 15 teams will gain an extra pick, and their order within their respective round is determined by their win totals in the 2024 season.

With that explanation out of the way, let’s get to the fun stuff — these picks can be traded.  Specifically, a CBR selection can traded exactly once, and to any team in the league.  Since these are the only MLB draft picks that are eligible to be dealt, it has become increasingly common to see teams move these extra selections as part of larger trade packages for established talent.

Three CBR picks in the 2024 draft changed hands due to trades, most prominently the Orioles’ inclusion of the 34th overall selection as part of the trade package sent to the Brewers for Corbin Burnes.  This offseason has already seen three CBR picks in the 2025 draft dealt, and this post will explore the possibility that some other teams with CBR selections might move these picks to fill a more immediate need.

To cover the broad reason why any of these teams might not make a trade, it’s simply that draft picks are a very valuable asset unto themselves.  Controllable young talent is particularly important for lower-revenue clubs that usually don’t splurge on expensive free agents or trade targets, which is part of the reasons why the Competitive Balance Rounds exist in the first place.  Clubs are naturally pretty reluctant to move these CBR picks unless the right opportunity presents itself on the trade market.

(First, some notes on the draft order.  The first 75 places in the 2025 draft have largely been established, since the remaining free agents who rejected qualifying offers all played for teams who were either luxury-tax payors in 2024, or aren’t revenue-sharing recipients.  That means that if Nick Pivetta signs elsewhere, the Red Sox will get their compensation pick after CBR-B.  If Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman sign elsewhere, the Mets’ and Astros’ compensation picks will fall after the fourth round.  Also, because the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers all exceeded the second luxury-tax tier in 2024, their first-round picks were dropped by 10 spots in the draft order.  This means that these three big spenders are all technically selecting within CBR-A, but obviously these aren’t official CBR picks.  The only potential change would be if a team that signs Alonso, Bregman or Pivetta surrenders its second-round pick to do so.)

Onto the selections….

Brewers (33rd overall, CBR-A): Milwaukee is actually making consecutive picks in the draft, as they received a compensatory pick when Willy Adames rejected the team’s qualifying offer and signed with the Giants.  Owning the 32nd overall pick might make the Brew Crew slightly more opening to trading the 33rd overall pick, perhaps to add pitching or to the infield in the wake of Adames’ departure.  The Brewers could considering adding their CBR pick as a sweetener to try and move Rhys Hoskins’ contract, yet it’s less likely that the team moves a valuable draft selection just as part of a salary dump.

Tigers (34th overall, CBR-A): The Tigers are considered to be one of the top suitors remaining for Alex Bregman, and signing a qualified free agent would cost the Tigers their third-highest pick in the 2025 draft.  Losing the 63rd overall pick means the Tigers almost surely wouldn’t also deal their CBR pick.  If Bregman signed elsewhere, it’s more plausible that Detroit could consider trading its CBR pick for a big right-handed bat, but still probably on the unlikely side.

Mariners (35th overall, CBR-A): It was almost exactly a year ago that the M’s traded their CBR-B pick in the 2024 draft to the White Sox as part of the Gregory Santos deal.  Santos’ injury-plagued first season in Seattle could make the Mariners more hesitant to an even higher CBR selection, yet this tradable pick might an asset the M’s can use within an overall difficult offseason market for the team.  The Mariners are working with limited payroll space and most every team in baseball would prefer win-now help over prospects, seemingly leaving the M’s dealing with a lot of offers for their starting pitchers.  With Seattle so reluctant to deal from its excellent rotation, offering up the 35th overall pick in trade talks might help get things moving.

Twins (36th overall, CBR-A): Speaking of front offices without much financial flexibility, Minnesota has had a very quiet offseason, with most of the headlines focused on a potential sale of the franchise rather than any significant roster moves.  With reportedly around only $5MM or so in payroll space, the Twins might have to make some trades just to free up more money for more trade possibilities.  Moving the CBR-A pick could be added to the Twins’ list of possibilities, but the team has enough potential trade candidates on the active roster that moving a big league-ready player is probably their preference over dealing away a draft pick.

Rays (37th overall, CBR-A): It might not come as much surprise that Tampa is the team that has acquired the most CBR picks over the last seven seasons.  As you’ll see shortly, the Rays added to that total with the 42nd overall pick of the 2025 draft.  Like with the Brewers and the Adames compensatory selection, having an “extra” pick in a sense might make the Rays more open to dealing this pick here, but that hasn’t been Tampa Bay’s style.

Reds (now Dodgers, 41st overall, CBR-A): This pick was already moved, as Cincinnati traded its selection along with outfield prospect Mike Sirota to Los Angeles in exchange for Gavin Lux.

Athletics (now Rays, 42nd overall, CBR-A): Another swapped pick, as the A’s moved the 42nd overall pick to Tampa Bay as part of the Jeffrey Springs trade.  This move in particular highlights the speculative nature of this post, since going into the offseason, the Athletics seemingly wouldn’t have been on the radar as a team likely to trade its CBR pick.

Marlins (43th overall, CBR-A): There’s basically zero chance the Fish move a draft pick in the midst of their extensive rebuild.

Guardians (70th overall, CBR-B): The reigning AL Central champs have generally gone chalk with their CBR selections, not acquiring or trading any picks until this year.  Adding an experienced outfielder or middle infielder for the 70th pick might work on paper, as the Guards are another team with two CBR selections and not much spending capacity to address its roster needs.

Orioles (71st overall, CBR-B): The idea for this post came about after writing another piece yesterday about how the O’s might be well-suited to trade this pick.

Diamondbacks (now Guardians, 72nd overall, CBR-B): Arizona sent the 72nd pick and Slade Cecconi to Cleveland to bring Josh Naylor to the desert.

Royals (73rd overall, CBR-B): Kansas City traded its CBR-A selection just hours before the 2024 draft began, moving the 39th overall pick and third base prospect Cayden Wallace to the Nationals for Hunter Harvey.  While Harvey battled injuries and wasn’t much of a help in the Royals’ run to the ALDS, the fact that the team made such an aggressive midseason deal in pursuit of a playoff spot might hint that the front office is willing to make another bold swap involving this pick.  Outfield help remains the Royals’ biggest need at this point in the winter.

Cardinals (74th overall, CBR-B): Outgoing president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has spoken about wanting to leave a “clean slate” for new PBO Chaim Bloom.  Between that and the Cardinals’ stated goal of refocusing on player development, it seems unlikely St. Louis would look to move its CBR pick.

Pirates (75th overall, CBR-B): The Bucs have had a relatively quiet offseason, with the team’s typical lack of big spending.  In theory, trading a CBR pick might be a helpful way for the Pirates to add talent without breaking the budget, though Ben Cherington has yet to explore this tactic during his time as Pittsburgh’s general manager.

Rockies (76th overall, CBR-B): While the Rockies aren’t technically in an official rebuild, they’re not exactly building up after losing 204 games over the last two seasons.  Using this pick to add another young player to the farm system seems far more likely than the Rox trading the pick away.

The Orioles’ Underrated Trade Chip

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Exactly one year ago today, the Orioles and Brewers agreed to the blockbuster trade that sent Corbin Burnes to Baltimore.  Since Burnes has now moved on to sign with the Diamondbacks and the O’s didn’t win a playoff game in the star right-hander’s lone season at Camden Yards, debates may rage for years about who “won” the trade, even if an argument can certainly be made that both teams made off well.

From the Orioles’ perspective, there was clear benefit to installing an ace like Burnes atop the team’s rotation.  On paper, a frontline pitcher was the final piece needed to put a young, deep, and talented O’s team over the top as a World Series contender, even if things didn’t ultimately work out for Baltimore in October.  Giving up Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and a Competitive Balance Round-A draft pick for one season of Burnes’ services was seen as an acceptable trade package, since the perception was that the Orioles could afford to be a little aggressive, given the extra depth afforded by their very deep farm system.

Fast forward a year, and the Orioles (perhaps frustratingly to the team and their fans) find themselves in roughly the same spot heading into the 2025 season.  Still looking for a postseason breakout, the O’s haven’t been sitting on their hands, as Tyler O’Neill, Andrew Kittredge, Gary Sanchez, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Charlie Morton have all been signed as free agent additions, boosting the club’s payroll from roughly $102.5MM in 2024 to a projected $157.3MM in 2025.  Such a payroll hike is quite substantial, but O’Neill is the only one of those players signed beyond next season, as the Orioles haven’t yet shown the increased appetite for longer-term spending that many expected under new owner David Rubenstein.

The roster as it stands on February 1 still looks like a strong one, and the Orioles should certainly be considered favorites to at least reach the playoffs for the third consecutive year.  Still, if the O’s want to make one more splashy move and aren’t yet willing to break the bank in free agency, that leaves the trade market as GM Mike Elias’ best route for an upgrade.  Even if Baltimore’s farm system has now been depleted by trades and several players graduating out of “prospect” status and onto the MLB roster, the Orioles also have another kind of one-year-only surplus that might yet prove beneficial in landing more experienced talent by Opening Day.

Unlike in the NFL, NBA, or NHL, Major League Baseball doesn’t allow its teams to trade draft picks….with one exception.  The teams that receive a bonus pick via the two Competitive Balance rounds are allowed to deal that pick away, which has provided an interesting wrinkle to trade discussions since the CB rounds were instituted prior to the 2017 draft.  These bonus picks are allotted to teams that fall within the league’s bottom 10 in either market size or revenues, and the Orioles have qualified for an extra CBR pick every year.

As noted earlier, the Orioles’ willingness to include their CBR-A pick (the 34th overall selection in the 2024 draft) was a key component of the Burnes trade, and the Brewers used that pick to select slugging Tennessee first base prospect Blake Burke last July.  This offseason saw the Reds trade their CBR-A pick to the Dodgers as part of the Gavin Lux trade, the Athletics included their CBR-A pick as part of the trade package that brought Jeffrey Springs to West Sacramento, and the Diamondbacks sent Slade Cecconi and their CBR-B selection to the Guardians in exchange for Josh Naylor.

Because the teams who qualify for CBR selections switch rounds every year, Baltimore’s extra pick comes in the second Competitive Balance Round in 2025, currently slotted as the 71st overall selection.  This means the Orioles will be on the clock six times within the first 94 picks of the 2025 draft, between their regular picks (19th, 59th, 94th) in the first three rounds, their CBR-B pick (71st), and the compensation picks (30th, 31st) that the club received when Burnes and Anthony Santander signed elsewhere.  Because the Orioles are a revenue-sharing recipient, and because Burnes and Santander rejected qualifying offers and signed deals worth more than $50MM, the O’s landed those compensatory picks right after the end of the first round.

The double dose of compensation picks might make the O’s more likely than not to move their CBR-B pick, just because it’s fairly uncommon for a team to have two qualified free agents depart in the same offseason.  It should be noted that the Orioles’ decision to trade their CBR-A pick for Burnes might’ve been influenced by another bonus pick the team received in that 2024 draft class.  The O’s received the 32nd overall pick under the league’s Prospect Promotion Incentive rules, since Gunnar Henderson won the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year Award after being ranked within the top 100 of preseason prospect lists from (at least two of) MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and ESPN.com.

Even if a CBR-B pick doesn’t carry as much value as the CBR-A selection dealt for Burnes, the Diamondbacks’ Naylor trade is evidence that a CBR-B pick can still bring back some quality talent.  Hypothetically, the Orioles could look to replicate the Burnes trade as closely as possible, and include their CBR pick as part of a larger trade package for an ace pitcher.  Even if the Orioles might technically have a rotation surplus if all their starters are healthy, it isn’t clear if any of Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Morton, or Sugano are necessarily the pitcher you’d want starting the first game of a playoff series.

A mention of Dylan Cease here is unavoidable.  The Padres are known to be gauging interest in Cease, who (like Burnes) is a year away from free agency.  Baltimore had interest in Cease last winter before the White Sox dealt him to San Diego, and that interest extended into this offseason, as the Orioles reportedly saw a Cease trade as a pivot move in case Burnes signed with a new team.  Further extending the comparison to Burnes, the O’s might well be viewing Cease as another one-year rental, with an eye towards recouping another compensatory pick next winter if and when Cease were to leave in free agency.

It would obviously take more than just the CBR-B pick to obtain Cease, but just having a tradable draft selection gives the O’s an interesting chip that most other teams linked to Cease can’t offer.  Of the teams publicly known to have interest in Cease, Minnesota is the only other club who has a CBR selection — the Twins select in CBR-A this year, so their possession of the 36th overall pick could even give them a leg up over the Orioles.  However, what the Twins don’t have is two extra compensatory picks expanding their overall draft pool, so Minnesota might well be less willing to move its CBR pick than the Orioles.

Regardless of whether the CBR-B pick is traded or not, Baltimore is already going to be getting a heck of a bounty back in the 2025 draft.  Selecting six prospects within the top 94 is a terrific way to help restock a thinned-out farm system, but selecting five prospects and trading the 71st overall pick for some immediate help might be the more effective way of managing the Orioles’ long-term and short-term goals.

Nationals Win Draft Lottery

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Major League Baseball conducted its third annual draft lottery this afternoon at the Winter Meetings. The Nationals won the lottery and will pick first overall. They’ll be followed by the Angels and Mariners. Washington had just above a 10% chance of securing the top pick, the fourth-highest odds.

Here’s the first round order:

  1. Nationals
  2. Angels
  3. Mariners
  4. Rockies
  5. Cardinals
  6. Pirates
  7. Marlins
  8. Blue Jays
  9. Reds
  10. White Sox
  11. Athletics
  12. Rangers
  13. Giants
  14. Rays
  15. Red Sox
  16. Twins
  17. Cubs
  18. Diamondbacks
  19. Astros
  20. Braves
  21. Orioles
  22. Brewers
  23. Royals
  24. Tigers
  25. Padres
  26. Phillies
  27. Mets
  28. Guardians
  29. Yankees
  30. Dodgers

As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the Rockies and Marlins had identical chances (22.5% apiece) of landing the top selection.

All non-playoff teams ostensibly have a chance to win the lottery. However, the CBA also prevents a team that is not a revenue sharing recipient from landing within the top six in consecutive seasons. No team can get a lottery pick more than two years in a row. That ruled out the White Sox and Athletics this year. Chicago is not a revenue sharing recipient and picked fifth last year, while the A’s were in the top six in both 2023 and ’24.

The Sox were not allowed to pick higher than 10th, while the A’s were capped at 11th. That’s despite the White Sox having the worst season of all time that would’ve placed them among the three likeliest teams to pick first. That increased the odds for every team but was especially beneficial to Colorado and Miami (from a probability perspective) by pushing their chances of the #1 pick north of 20%. Unfortunately for those teams, the balls didn’t bounce their way. The Angels and Nationals were the other teams with at least a 10% shot.

Seattle and St. Louis come away as big winners. The Mariners went 85-77 and had the second-best record of any non-playoff team. St. Louis had the fourth-best mark for clubs that didn’t get to the postseason. They nevertheless were fortunate to spring into the top five. It’s a particularly disappointing outcome for Miami, who didn’t land a lottery pick at all despite sharing the best shot at the first selection. The only silver lining is that they’ll remain eligible for lottery picks for at least 2026 and ’27 if they don’t make the playoffs.

Teams that exceeded the third tier of luxury penalization have their top picks dropped by 10 spots unless that selection lands within the top six. (In that instance, the club’s second-highest pick would move back.) MLB has yet to officially announce the 2024 tax data, but it is believed that the Mets, Dodgers and Yankees are the only clubs that surpassed the $277MM threshold for the pick to be dropped. All those teams made the playoffs and weren’t eligible for the lottery anyhow.

The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.

Baseball America published its most recent Top 100 draft prospects in September. As always, that’s worth a full read. Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette topped BA’s list, though there’ll obviously be plenty of changes to the board as next spring’s amateur baseball season gets underway.

2025 Draft Lottery Odds Finalized

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The 2024 regular season is now complete, which also means that the details of the upcoming draft lottery are now locked in. Carlos Collazo of Baseball America laid out all the details in a post this morning.

In an effort to reduce tanking, the Players Association pushed for a lottery in the most recent collective bargaining agreement. Starting with the 2023 draft, the top six picks were determined by a lottery held at the Winter Meetings, with each club that misses the postseason having a shot at the top pick. Teams with worse records still have the best odds of getting the top picks, but nothing is guaranteed. One year ago, the Guardians won the top pick despite having just a 2% chance of doing so, eventually using that pick on second baseman Travis Bazzana. If two teams have the same record, their record in the previous season serves as a tiebreaker.

The three teams with the worst records usually have the same odds of getting the top pick but there’s a notable exception. To discourage teams from undergoing yearslong rebuilds, the lottery rules limit how often a club can receive a lottery pick. Revenue-sharing recipients can’t have lottery picks more than two years in a row while other clubs can’t have lottery picks in consecutive years.

Since the White Sox aren’t a revenue-sharing recipient and had a lottery pick in 2024, the rules state that they can’t pick higher than 10th in 2025. That’s despite a dismal 121-loss season that was easily the worst in baseball. The Athletics are a revenue-sharing club but had lottery picks in both 2023 and 2024, meaning they can’t pick higher than 11th next year.

Those clubs will still have balls in the lottery but they will be ignored if they win, which actually happened last year. Per J.J. Cooper of Baseball America, the Nationals would have secured the first overall pick in 2024 but they were ineligible due to having a lottery pick in 2023. The draw was redone, which is when the Guardians got the top pick.

Here are the lottery clubs and their odds of getting the top overall pick, adjusted to account for the fact that the White Sox and A’s aren’t eligible:

  1. Rockies (61-101): 22.45%
  2. Marlins (62-100): 22.45%
  3. Angels (63-99): 17.96%
  4. Nationals (71-91): 10.2%
  5. Blue Jays (74-88): 7.48%
  6. Pirates (76-86): 5.31%
  7. Reds (77-85): 3.67%
  8. Rangers (78-84): 2.45%
  9. Giants (80-82): 1.9%
  10. White Sox (41-121): Ineligible
  11. A’s (69-93): Ineligible
  12. Rays (80-82): 1.5%
  13. Red Sox (81-81): 1.22%
  14. Twins (82-80): 1.09%
  15. Cardinals (83-79): 0.82%
  16. Cubs (83-79): 0.68%
  17. Mariners (85-77): 0.54%
  18. Diamondbacks (89-73): 0.27%

Playoff teams will be sorted based on their postseason results. Teams that lose in the early rounds pick ahead of those that advance further. Teams that are eliminated in the same round are separated first by revenue-sharing status, with recipients picking earlier, and then in reverse order of regular season record. These rules only impact the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, teams pick in reverse order of standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.

Teams that surpass the third tier of the competitive balance tax ($277MM in 2024) have their top pick moved back ten spots. If such a club gets a top six pick, then that penalty is applied to their second-highest pick instead. That won’t be a factor this year. Per RosterResource, the three clubs projected to be over that CBT line are the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers. Atlanta appears to be right on the line but general manager Alex Anthopoulos has said the club stayed under, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal Constitution on X. Regardless, all those clubs made the postseason and won’t be in the lottery.

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