The Pirates announced today that they have signed right-handed pitcher Seth Hernandez. They selected him with their first-round pick, sixth overall, at last week’s draft. Jim Callis of MLB.com reports that the signing bonus is $7.25MM, which is about $300K shy of the $7,558,600 slot value for the sixth overall pick. Callis notes it’s the highest bonus ever for a high school pitcher.
Heading into the draft, Hernandez was considered one of the top 25 guys available, though there was a wide range of opinions on exactly where to rank him among those top guys. Baseball America had him second overall, MLB Pipeline had him at #3, ESPN at #4, FanGraphs at #9, while Keith Law of The Athletic had him way down at #21.
All evaluators generally agree that there is ace potential here. Hernandez sits in the mid-90s with his fastball and can push triple digits. His changeup and curveball are considered great weapons. He has a slider which is inconsistent but could develop into another useful pitch in time. He also could have been a viable hitter/shortstop prospect, though his pitching potential is so strong that it’s agreed that he should be on the mound. The Bucs announced him as a right-handed pitcher, so that seems to be their thinking as well.
Law’s bearishness seems to be more about high school pitchers in general, as opposed to any specific criticism of Hernandez. “The history of high school pitchers taken in the first round is dismal, however, given their high attrition rates,” Law writes, “and as talented as Hernandez is, he’s still in that same category. There’s at least No. 2 starter upside here, but the risk of any high school arm is that they get hurt or don’t have the command and control to get to the majors.” Kiley McDaniel of ESPN mentions in his Hernandez blurb that some clubs will never take a prep righty with a top-ten pick.
On the more optimistic side of things, BA’s writeup says that Hernandez has the talent be ranked alongside recent prep picks like Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore and Jackson Jobe. In the 2017 draft, Greene and Gore went second and third overall, respectively. Both have now become strong major leaguers and arguable aces. Jobe went third overall in 2021 and still has a limited track record. He won’t be able to build on it anytime soon either, as he recently required Tommy John surgery. However, he had become one of the top pitching prospects in the sport prior to this year.
The Pirates haven’t done a great job developing hitters but their work with pitchers is stronger. Their rotation currently features homegrown pitchers Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Mike Burrows. If he weren’t currently recovering from surgery, Jared Jones would be in there as well. Bubba Chandler is one of the best pitching prospects right now and he’s pitching in the Triple-A rotation. Tom Harrington and Hunter Barco are also notable Pittsburgh draftees who are there in Indianapolis alongside Chandler.
Hernandez is still quite young, having just turned 19 less than a month ago. It will likely take him a few years but he naturally wants to follow that path. “He shoved yesterday,” Hernandez said of Skenes, per Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “and he’s probably going to shove for the rest of his life. If I could kind of follow his footsteps, that’d be great.”
Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images
