With a 55-49 record and a seat at the Wild Card table, the Red Sox have seemingly played themselves out of selling this summer even after trading former franchise face Rafael Devers to the Giants last month. There’s been plenty of speculation about the possibility that they could trade from their glut of outfield talent and move Jarren Duran, but it seems as though that might not be in the cards—for now, at least. ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote that the Red Sox might more or less stand pat this summer, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post noted that Boston is “believed” to be unlikely to move Duran despite considerable interest from the Padres.
Sean McAdam of MassLive provides further details on the situation surrounding Duran. He suggests that while a deal involving Duran is “likely” at some point, the Red Sox are inclined to hold off on making such a deal until the offseason. McAdam then goes on to note that the Padres offered Boston a three-player package of right-hander Dylan Cease, top catching prospect Ethan Salas, and an additional prospect not named Leo De Vries that was “quickly rejected.” That’s a fairly significant offer, particularly given the fact that the Red Sox had reportedly expressed interest in Cease previously in conversations with San Diego this summer.
Duran’s in the midst of a decent season but has taken a massive step back from his All-Star 2024 campaign that ended with an eighth place finish in a crowded NL MVP race. This year, Duran has hit just .254/.321/.428 with a wRC+ of 104 and below average defense in the outfield. While the Padres clearly still believe in the upside they saw when he put together a 6.8 fWAR, 8.7 bWAR season last year given their offer of a longtime top prospect and a front-of-the-rotation rental, it’s possible that the Red Sox are hoping for a strong second half from Duran that can raise his value headed into the offseason and potentially get the attention of other clubs besides San Diego.
Perhaps the Red Sox were willing to reject that offer from San Diego in part because the players they’d be acquiring are in the midst of down seasons themselves. Cease has long been viewed as one of the sport’s most talented pitchers, but he’s posted a 4.59 ERA that’s actually 10% worse than league average by ERA+ across 21 starts this year. His peripheral numbers remain strong and some of his poor season-long numbers can be attributed to a nine-run, four-inning implosion at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento back in April. Even so, Cease doesn’t carry the same surefire ace pedigree he would have had even one season ago. Salas is in no better shape, having been sidelined by a stress fracture in his back for most of 2025 following a tough season at the High-A level last year.
While the Padres have been frequently connected to Duran for quite some time now, they’re far from the only team for whom he’d be an excellent fit. The Phillies have a major hole in left field, the Astros are in desperate need of a left-handed bat to help balance their lineup, the Royals are in clear need of help all around the outfield, and even non-contending clubs in need of offense like the Pirates could make sense as a suitor for Duran given that he won’t reach free agency until after the 2028 season. That’s hardly an exhaustive list of teams that could make sense as a fit for Duran, as his combination of upside and long period of team control could make him attractive for virtually any team that isn’t already stacked with outfield talent themselves.
Crazy to me they don’t think Seth Lugo would make them better.
coach – My fear is the Sox will acquire Morton instead.
FPG – And my fear is that the Royals will give up youth for the likes of Adam Frazier. (Oh, wait…)
28-year-old minor leaguer that had not made his major league debut with his original team the Brewers is that where you’re talking about when you say youth?
Fever – Morton could even make the acquisition of Andrew Cashner look decent.
let – That’s a name I hadn’t heard in a long time!
How do we know the Red Sox have no interest in Lugo?
Right. They showed interest before he proved to be able to start. Now he’s proven, I’d think they’d be open to it
Meh, his ERA looks nice, but everything else is a big red flag. 4.56 xERA, 4.28 FIP, walks are up, strand rate is unsustainably high, BABIP is significantly lower than his career average, giving up more fly balls…
Sorry but two prospects and a 2-month rental of a pitcher with a 4.59 ERA (including a 5.52 Road ERA) doesn’t seem like a “significant” offer for Duran.
Glad it was quickly rejected by Breslow, and not surprised it was.
This seems to be another sign the Sox are not truly GFIN, unless they plan to play Rafaela at 2B quite a bit.
Salas is the top catching prospect in the sport and the other prospect was unnamed. Tough to draw conclusions
Salas is horrible. The Red Sox don’t go by MLB prospect rankings and it looks like they are better at it.
He’s also a 19 year old catcher who has a bad back who’s production (when healthy) thus far in the minors hasn’t matched his hype.
A catcher with a back problems at 19 is a bit concerning, to say the least.
It’s not back PROBLEMS, it’s 1 specific injury he’ll most likely recover from and never suffer again. He’s 19 and 19 year olds heal faster than you in a hyperbolic chamber sittin in the Fountain of Youth.
The padres screwed up Salas development by being overly aggressive his first year and now he’s hurt. He’s also not the top catching prospect in baseball and will most likely be passed by a few others before the end of the season.
Probably not even a top 10 catching prospect these days.
Salas is absolutely NOT the best Catching prospect in the sport. Many evaluators dont even have him on top 100 lists anymore. Mlb.com is always slow to update their rankings, but nonetheless – Salas has been aggressively promoted but has to hit at any level. His profile is quickly becoming that of a backup C …all defense, no bat
Salas .188 BA in AA.
playing hurt, at age 18. Hardly conclusive
Not surprised it was rejected, it is a weak return on three-plus years of a proven outfielder. That said, Cease is a lot better than his current ERA.
Wait – Can you say without using player analytics why you believe Cease is better than the results (ERA) indicate?
Two things typically make ERA deceptive ….. Park Factor and Team Defense.
Padres are middle of the pack on defense, and Petco is the 6th-most pitcher friendly park in MLB. So it’s not defense or Park Factor that has artificially inflated his ERA. So what do you think has?
There is also a large random factor in ERA, the same hit with bases loaded has a bigger impact than one with the bases empty. It takes a couple hundred innings at least for that kind of stuff to average out.
There can also be some distortion if the bullpen does a bad job with inherited runners.
I believe Cease remains a good pitcher (never really top flight) because he continues to do what he always has done, striking batters out and pitching with reasonable command. It’s basically a “back of the card” analysis, he is what he always has been.
Wait – Good pitchers get results with Run Prevention, which is always the #1 goal of pitchers. Giving up a single with the bases loaded is far worse than giving up a single with the bases empty. Good pitchers perform their best with runners in scoring position, bad pitchers do not. You mention averaging out as if situations don’t matter and pitchers are robots who approach every hitter the exact same way, when in reality if Crochet has the bases loaded he’s gonna throw with more velocity and pound the strike zone more.
Good point about bullpen being a factor though, But it doesn’t help Cease’s case at all, as the Padres have the best bullpen in MLB with a minuscule 3.11 ERA.
Unless Cease is injured or has some other underlying issues that have affected his performance, it sure does seem like he would struggle to get better results than Biff who has at least twice been the victim of poor management.
You can save your lecturing, thank you. I think we’ve seen enough of Cease over the years to know who he is.
There is always an element of randomness in baseball. Sometimes you make a good pitch and they hit it.
Wait – Excuse me?
Lecturing?
I was nicely explaining why I disagreed with you …. and you call it lecturing?
Well since that’s how you view my posts, no worries bro ….. I won’t waste my time with you anymore.
So you think Cease has forgotten how to pitch? That he knew last year that he was supposed to bear down in tough spots but it slipped his mind this year?
You are welcome to disagree, but can you point to anything other than his ERA that explains why Cease was better last year than this year?
It’s baseball, sometimes stuff happens…. Move his single worst start from 2025 to 2024 and the numbers reverse.
That’s why I look at peripherals, it saves me from having to invent explanations for why something has changed when in reality nothing has changed.
You completely disregarded Ceases body of work. You really believe he’s just a pitcher w sub par era today ? Or is the rest of his season most likely going to be better than thus far ?
He’s had one really good year and is a mid rotation arm most of the time. He’s worse this season and there’s absolutely no reason to think all of a sudden if he’s traded he preforms better in drastically more hitter park.
Cease has TWO top 4 CY finishes but only has 1 good year… mmkay.
Whiffa, not sure if you are talking to me, but Cease is putting up a line very similar to what he did in 2024, but with an ERA that is a full point higher. If you look at his FIP or xFIP (a reflection of his peripherals), they are in line with last year. If you look at his xERA (a reflection of contact quality) that is also in line with last year.
I’d be willing to bet on Cease being the pitcher he always has been going forward, with a sub-4 ERA. There are other better pitchers out there, but he would be a clear upgrade over Buehler and Fitts.
The other better pitchers would also cost more if you are talking about guys like Ryan or Gore.
Who else is better Gallon, Kelly? Gallon has been pretty bad and his secondary numbers don’t look as good as Cease. You can make an argument Kelly has been better but his ceiling is lower than Cease.
Starting pitching market is pretty thin. Unless you want a 4/5 type ceiling guy.
That doesn’t mean you trade Duran for it?
As I said above, I’m not surprised that the Red Sox turned this one down. Cease is an upgrade, but I don’t think Duran is the right offer.
@WaitTil2026 Cease has also made no less than 32 starts per season in the past four. He’s as sure a bet to pitch 11 or 12 more games for any new team and will be available for the playoffs.
If I had to guess, I’d say the most sensible guess is that the rest of his season is going to be similar to his season so far. Not exactly rocket surgery.
Sign me up for some of that rocket surgery! I need my gallbladder out fast!
Big – Nothing is more indicative of Aug/Sep performance than YTD performance.
If the Sox can “fix” him, great! But that is far from a sure thing, and unlike MLB I don’t like high risk gambling.
You’re familiar with Park Factor, right?
Seems like a media plow to get padres to up the offer. I think this deal gets done. Seems like they are stuck on who the 3rd player will be
I like bostons chances of resigning cease too !
Suarez should definitely get it done and thst would be a bit of an overpay. If prospects, Mayfield or Mendez look promising
Nah, I think this deal is dead. Padres aren’t and don’t have much more to offer besides DeVries in a deal like that.
For Duran’s production this year that’s a pretty big offer. Cease who if the Sox don’t want could be flipped to get other prospects. Salas who is still the 21st prospect in baseball plus another prospect.
This getting rejected (if true, liars time of the year) is a pretty good offer in my eyes. Depending on if the Sox were going for it this year. Which most indications is they aren’t.
Probably why the Kwan rumors started. I can see the padres trading Cease and or Suarez for prospects to then pry Kwan away. Cleveland has valued defensive catchers so even If Salas’s bat doesn’t fully pan out they would still like his defensive ability.
Agree Sim…if true I think I accept that offer…
It’s a damn good offer, you don’t see top 100 prospects, let alone top 25 traded anymore.
Its not their best offer thats why you have to get other teams involved and try to get a reliever with control to make it work.
Padres aren’t going to add Adam, morejon or Estrada to this deal. They are the main reasons they ever won a game.
If the Padres are serious about contending THIS YEAR, trading Cease for Duran makes little sense, especially given the uncertainty of Darvish (who’s velo is very low and ERA very high) and King. Can a rotation led by Pivetta and Vasquez and a bunch of AAA guys get them a parade?
They’re better off finding a cheap RH bat or two, Laureano, Robert, Tauchman, etc…
That name again is Mr Plow
Maybe if Duran was on a shorter deal, but there’s multiple years left on Duran’s contract.
Boston has to do something for more SP. Duran is declining trade him while you can and don’t be stupid. This is a good year to go for it in the AL.
Getting back a rental who hasn’t been good this year isn’t the return they need for Duran.
Ideally, they package him and a few prospects for a much better arm.
Better arm than Dylan Cease ??
Big – Why are you so down on guys like Ryan, Bubic and Lugo?
Big – yes. Cease this year has not been that great. He seems to have the same issue Josh Beckett had, where every other year is great, but then he has an average/normal year.
Duran: 2.6 bwar, years of control left
Cease:0.7 bWAR (yes bwar for pitchers yadda yadda I’m lazy), free agent after this year.
Duran will be under team control for cheap for a few more years and will provide some great surplus value.
Ryan would be the greatest grab but is it likely he’s available ? I would want an absolute haul for him from Boston and they have seem unlikely to trade for players like that over the past couple seasons by the way they have held onto Meyer when he could have headlined any number of trades the past couple seasons.
Ryan is the one that’s floated around. And yeah, as someone who isn’t responsible for running the team, I’d give up a metric ton for him. More than crochet. Probably similar prospect capital and one of Duran/Abreu.
And then including Arias, Tolle/Perales, and one more.
Well said. That should get it done too
Big – If the Sox sell high with Rafaela and throw in Dobbins and Crawford I think the Twins would part with Ryan.
Joe – The only pitcher who is worth more than what Chicago got for Crochet is Skubal.
BTW – Meidroth tonight already has 3 hits including a homer off Shota, and Teel has a .763 OPS while doing a solid job behind the plate.
Duran is only 28 and will have about a 4 WAR player. He’s not a declining player.
They will trade Duran, Marcella, and a high prospect to Minnesota for one of those guys and jhoan, the reliever
Marcelo is not going anywhere. Marcella whomever that is might be haha and I doubt that Minnesota wants Duran.
Twins could corner the market in Durans…
Who is “Marcella”?
Just another overhyped prospect that didn’t pan out. No defense so he’s more of a DH at best. Unfortunately, Boston already had far too many of those guys on their team.
excuse me? 12.6War so far in his career, 2.6War so far this season on his way to about a 3.5War season. He is playing above average this season and was a superstar last season and well above average in 23 before being injured. You may want to get some facts before you write stuff.
Eli- Duran has a 1.7 fwar, on pace to have a little over 2 war season.
That is far from a star. He is also not a young developing player. He is currently having a decline year. Looking at his career last year looks like a career year.
He isn’t the star people make him out to be.
His 46 wrc+ vs lefties he is starting to look like a platoon bat. To go along with a 74 wrc+ in away games. On top of his negative defensive value this year.
We’re talking actual objective analysis of a player’s profile, not a blatantly one-sided undersell.
Start with his defense. Scouts and metrics both understood that he was a rough/raw defender when he first reached the majors, but his performance steadily improved. DRS, UZR, OAA, FRV, take your pick, all saw him as a clearly *good* CENTER fielder by 2024. This year, he’s been buried in LF due to the presence of Rafaela, and we all know that judging rangy outfielders in Fenway’s LF can be dodgy.
At worst, he’s a versatile outfield defender who could absolutely start in CF full time, and that stands above the unique context of his basic defensive valuation this year. An acquiring team could be getting years of outright good CF defense, and while it wouldn’t be fair to peg his valuation at that outright you can be sure teams are closer to that than “negative defensive value”.
While he has a large home/away split this year, he actually hit better on the road last year and in 2022, so that inconsistency looks closer to noise than a major concerning trait.
Absolutely the fairest criticism is that he is clearly an inferior hitter against LHP. But it’s pretty goofy to present a guy who can play a worthy CF and who brings impact baserunning performance as a “platoon” guy. That’s a guy you can feature early in your lineup versus RHP whom you then position strategically against LHP, not bench against lefties.
Even with his step back with the bat this year, there are underlying positives such as his average exit velocity. Some steps back in approach at the plate hardly erases a 2023 breakout that then solidified into a huge 2024 – it just means it’s wiser to treat him as a more-variable-than-average quality bat than as a star bat made superstar with his wheels and defense.
So he *probably* will average just short of a star player in the prime years to come, with not-bat components of his game being a major part of that, and with the strong juice in his bat relative to his otherwise speed-based profile there is also appealing upside. You say he isn’t a “young developing player”, except he is still 28 and, more importantly, obviously was raw enough when he first reached the majors that he’s clearly no finished product.
Obviously, it isn’t fair to treat his 2024 as a baseline; teams didn’t seem to be doing that even last offseason, for good reason.
But one of the reasons some teams are likely so keen on him right now is because he has the look of a “buy low”. You’re not going to fool people into not seeing that by focusing the attention on the weaker parts of his profile and then painting them all in the worst light, most especially his defense. Come now.
Redsox- feel free to try and counter my points but they are all stat driven.
This year…Bad vs lefties, bad away, bad defender, not a young guy he is in his prime. Lots of his game is speed based which slow with age.
Took a major step backwards and now last season looks like a career year.
Is he still an overall good player? Yes.
Is he a star? No
Do the Sox likely want a star rerun? Yes
There is a reason he is the odd many out with the Sox. Sox can hang on to him another year and see if 2024 or 25 is more accurate.
Waiting until the offseason may increase the number of teams interested but that doesn’t always translate to a better offer. The reported padres offer was a solid offer. Maybe the Sox didn’t like the mix of players but that offer would get you real talent.
Hoping the Padres don’t overpay.
Salas, Cease and a prospect seems legit.
Duran is good but if what is required is a for or five for one, that’s a hard pass.
Time for the Padres to develop a lf in that case.
Devries is untouchable as he projects to be a potential star.
Pads farm system is far better than given credit for but a lot of its talent is at the lower levels.
From a pitching standpoint the farm is severely underrated.
All players involved are having down years. Duran did most of his damage in second part of last year he could still end up with a 6 to 7 war season. He already been one of the best hitters in baseball the past month. Padres have to give more if they want him.
You think he is gonna go from 1.7 to 6-7 war?
Zero chance of that.
What’s more likely to happen is for him to be benched vs lefties
Eric – Great post!
And also lets not forget Duran is under team control for 3 more years, which is huge.
And also keep in mind he’s been the subject of constant trade chatter, which likely has impacted his performance as he is not good at blocking out that kind of thing.
He went from 1.7 war to 2.6 in a short period of time according to baseball reference.
Red- check fangraphs they say otherwise
Simm – You know BR and FG have two totally different versions of WAR, right?
Really, they aren’t the same site?
Wow, breaking news
Simm – It’s not about being different sites, its about the fact that WAR is an estimate so flawed that different sites can’t even agree on the formula to use for it.
Different sites use tons of the exact same real statistics, and there is no difference between each site for all those stats. You make it sound like each site has different results for all statistics! Hahahaha!!!
If you watch him play you would have a different opinion on how he has been impacting games. There’s a reason padres have been scouting him for a over a year now and making trade offers.
That package is legit, but *how* legit is highly variable based on valuations surely being wide.
For Cease, a team trying to win now could feel like he’s an ideal buy low, or he could be seen as a huge dice roll.
For Salas, he could be as appealing as ever, which means top C prospect (though perhaps less valuable even in that case for a Boston, given that he wouldn’t be helping the MLB team any time soon). But he also could be seen as a name only. Personally, between his recent struggles and health and the nature of prospects at his positions, I fear he’s going to end up another bust C prospect and would absolutely not want him to be the headliner in a major deal I made.
So it seens less likely that the offer was rejected because it didn’t have enough pieces in it and more because Boston is on the lower end of the fair range of valuations for the two key pieces. Can’t fault SD for trying – it’s not an unfair offer by any means – but also can’t fault Boston or anyone for not seeing as much value there as would be expected at first glance.
You talking about Duran?
Yes. If Salas and Cease don’t move the needle, I’d pass.
I hate the Red Sox, obviously. However, they have no problem with trading away great talent like Betts, Devers, and many players before that. I wish the Yankees would forget about loyalty and become sellers. Many players like Torres left Yankees for nothing in return. I dare the Yankees to trade Judge and do a full rebuild it’s time. How about trading Volpe? Make some bold moves, Cashman, please. Don’t buy this summer. Start selling off some pieces.
You can’t possibly be a yankee fan talking about trading judge. You literally listed examples why to not trade him. How did the betts trade work out for Boston? Really? It sure worked for the dodgers.
Torres isn’t that good and he served a purpose last season because they needed his bat while dragging multiple black holes in other positions around. He was a essentially a rental they already owned.
If I’m a Yankee fan, I want to enjoy Judge for as long as possible. Not only is his game amazing, but he’s pretty much impossible to dislike as a person. Wonderfully-fitting face of an organization.
How did the Betts trade work out for Boston? Depends on things we’ll never know: if he was ticketed to leave town after 2020, not only did they do well enough (though Verdugo not developing further obviously disappointed) in the trade return but they also as a bonus only lost the pandemic-shortened season.
If, however, he was seriously interested in staying long term and it was Boston that elected to not pay him fair price and retain him, then they missed out badly.
What do you possibly think you would get for Volpe? I got a pretty big chuckle from the thought of Judge getting traded.
Can’t believe the Red Sox rejected that offer.
Duran is sliding and on his way down and he’s had just one great season and he’s going to be 29.
I guess baseball puts more value on “years of control” than I realize.
So he’s a .250 hitter who’s previously been a knucklehead on and off the field, but he’s loved in the community and he’s super fast so I guess they should keep him.
I say sell high on the guy. All-Star last year with a good home run number and batting average.
What the heck is Boston waiting for especially with somewhat of a need at catcher !!
If the prospect is any good, to me this 3 for 1 is a no-brainer, but I’m probably the least informed Red Sox fan on this website so I get it that you all are saying to reject that offer. No problem. Just my two cents.
All that said if I were Preller, I’d pass.
Especially when you look at Durans splits. Sucks vs lefties and sucks away from Fenway.
This if true is a lucky rejection for the padres. Duran really doesn’t solve much for the price.
Right !!
I’m not sold on Salas given his injury history, how the Padres tried to push him way too hard and now his development seems stagnated so I don’t blame the sox for passing on that trade.
Yes, and that looks like the consensus of those who are a little more informed.
As all this shakes out, I’m sure Breslow will make the deal that’s right for the team at least in his mind.
Gary – I’m very glad you added “at least in his mind” ;O)
There’s no guarantee that Salas will be as good as Narvaez. Not much of a reason to trade for him.
If you paint Duran as a knucklehead, then you are indeed the least informed fan.
“As a knucklehead.”
“Who’s previously been a knucklehead.”
One of these statements is not like the other. You can see it if you zoom in closely.
Or you can see it and you’re tracking so far, but you’ve only been a Red Sox fan for two years?
What is hard to believe is that anyone would struggle to believe that pieces like Cease and Salas might not be remotely as valued by any given specific team as we would think given their recent valuations. Not say they have weak value – but any team making a trade should feel good about the individuals involved (or, if not that, feel good about the price being paid for what they might get back if things go well). It’s VERY easy to understand why these specific names might not check that box, and it could be completely unrelated to any hesitation in trading Duran.
The short deal is that Duran has a valuation to Boston itself, and until/unless it gets an offer that Boston honestly/sincerely values better than what it sees out of Duran it shouldn’t make a deal. It doesn’t matter if others think the offer is terrific, and that surely is what Boston is waiting for.
redsoxu571, Thank you for your comment and addressing my opinions.
After reading the consensus here, I can see there’s a lot more information about that incoming package than I had previously been aware of.
I love that we can come in here, state our opinions, whether they are based on a lot of information or not so much, and feel welcome enough to share them.
It’s through these discussions that we learn more about our beloved Red Sox and the rest of MLB..
I wouldn’t be aware of the concerns regarding Dylan Cease or the catching prospect solely by watching ESPN or Twitter X.
You guys come in here and really provide so much information and I’m thankful for it.
The offer could use a reliever, padres have alot of relief options so red sox are going to push for relief pitcher if they trade duran to padres.
Salas cant hit and is injury prone thats why they rejected the deal. Salas won’t remain a top propect much longer if he cant stay on field. The red sox want catcher rushing from the dodgers and are going hard after him, they clearly want a catcher with offense. The only reason red sox make that is if they have another trade in mind to trade Salas.
Ideally he won’t continue on a downward slide like Luis Robert Jr. I suppose it’s always a gamble banking on a player to recover some value or trade them before a potential decline. (Jo Adel enters chat…)
Only if Ryan is in package do I give up Duran and top prospects not on team already.. how bout a reunion with Nate?? Wouldn’t break bank I feel…
The price just went up.
Well I’m sure JJ piccolo is going to go look elsewhere maybe for a rental instead of a controllable outfielder so that way maybe during the winter meetings they can get a controllable one at that time instead
Gosh.
Wow.
Really?
But there’s been SO MANY rumors …
You mean it was all bruhahah and balderdash? Banter? Bicker?
Conversations?
Don’t, Deal, Duran: these are words with a D this time.
Elephant talk.
Cue the Adrian Belew solo.
Friggin forget falling for Friars fodder. Gotta get good guys.
Well played hayzee
Knowing the Sox need pitching and knowing Salas’s reputation as a top catching prospect, I’m a little surprised this offer didn’t get more interest. I must be oversold on Salas. I love Durran but am also worried his 2024 season was an outlier. Wouldn’t mind pulling the trigger if Breslow gets something he likes.
I’m with you too, but reading some of these other comments with a little more information tells us the package isn’t all that it seems on the surface.
The catching prospect is not quite as top-tier as has been reported by some. Sort of like a lot of Red Sox prospects in the past, lol !!
So yeah, I just trust Breslow to make the right decision. These guys are in the trenches with all the information.
Yeah, different gm’s value different things. There is basically zero doubt in Salas’s defensive abilities.
There is some doubt in his offense coming around.
Even if Salas doesn’t hit for a lot he will still be a valuable mlb player for years. Good defensive catchers stay in the league forever. Plus there is still upside on the bat coming around.
there’s more than some doubt regarding salas’ offensive abilities at this point and now with the unfortunate back injury there are questions about his defensive abilities too ie can he handle the position long term. again I don’t blame salas because I feel like the Padres screwed him up but right now Salas value is way way down.
The key question should be ‘why is SD so willing to move Salas?’ It’s not like SD is deep in catching.
Because he is 19 and likely years away. Plus outside of DeVries he is their next best prospect. One that likely has the second most value. If they are trying to get a controlled good player…you have to offer a good prospect.
@JoeBrady. I agree, but perhaps a deal for Murphy is in the works, but who knows.
I think the fact Salas has s stress fracture in his back as a catcher at such a young age is huge red flag…stay as far away as possible
It’s interesting that the trade of Devers is seen as such a potential game-changer that it would have been expected to bury the Red Sox chances–that it was akin to a surrender. I don’t understand that–the team and player had reached a dead end and Boston got a reasonable return, especially factoring salary relief. The Red Sox are a good team, with a lot of talent, some of it very young. They were always going to be competitive. I say this without any pleasure whatsoever, since I’m a Yankees fan.
If the Yankees hadn’t played so poorly over the past six weeks or so, the Red Sox would be looking up hard at a WC spot.
The Red Sox took the best bat in their lineup and trades him for 0 players that went immediately to the MLB roster. In fact, only one of them is on the roster now and it’s Hicks who hasn’t been great overall.
The trade was a pure salary dump and due to the team having an easy schedule after the trade, they haven’t been buried in the standings yet. However, they just went 2-4 against two good teams in CHC and PHI. They have a tough schedule coming up with LAD (kind of scuffling), MIN, HOU, KCR, SDP, HOU.
The schedule gets much tougher than beating up in WAS and COL.
“The trade was a pure salary dump”.
Save us from the lies, please. You don’t receive a still-young recent top pitching prospect and call that nothing. Everyone knows that development isn’t linear and that Breslow has pitching profiles he goes for, so if he likes Harrison then he likes Harrison and that’s value in their eyes.
They also got back SF’s top draft pick last year, and while his value has been treading water at best he’s clearly a piece of note too.
Most obviously, the first reason Boston felt it had to move Devers was because he was badly disgruntled. Doesn’t matter the why, but disgruntled is disgruntled and that causes problems here and now. On top of that, they had a guy who had been long pegged as an eventual 1B/DH type who had to have his arm twisted to go to DH and was outright petulant about trying 1B, which is bad both for making the lineup work and for teammates. We don’t know how everyone on the team felt about his reaction, but how hard is to to figure that a good number of guys resented him for not trying a different defensive position same as countless other baseball players do when asked?
Also obviously, being rid of the full big salary of a disgruntled guy counts too, but it’s so very fraudulent to paint the deal as just that.
And it’s poor logic too, because if the team had simply be motivated by a salary dump it would have moved him this winter, when teams have more flexibility. The reason it happened now is for the unmistakable one: the relationship between player and team had broken, and Boston got an offer good enough to say “fine, time to move on”.
Harrison and Tibbs are struggling mightily in the minors right now.
The Red Sox front office ran Devers out of town. There’s literally no other way to view the situation. They created the disgruntled employee by their horrible handling of signing Bregman, and then by the horrible handling of Devers going to full time DH. They created the issue. Breslow probably wanted to get rid of Devers when he took the job, I’m shocked it took him this long.
By trading Devers, they traded a perennial allstar and player still producing at a high level and did nothing to replace his spot in the lineup. For a team in the playoff hunt, that’s not good.
You know who would have helped the offense hit against actual good pitching, like the ones they faced this week and the ones they would face in the playoffs? Devers.
Perhaps it’s the Marcelo Meyer injury that keeps Jarren Duran in town?
Though they prefer not to do so, the Sox will move Rafaella to second and then the outfield is set.
So now, prying away Duran from Boston would take a little more than just a week ago?
This same story seems to pop up a lot, or it’s just me and my deja vu – “Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead”
Looking at the actual data, there is evidence to support the hypothesis that Duran is trying, very hard, to be a player that he is not. As frequently occurs, the failure to take advantage of your natural abilities has a negative effect on performance.
This year, Duran seems to be hunting power. He has increased the launch angle on his swing, he’s swinging at more pitches outside the zone, and, naturally, by showing less plate discipline, he’s swinging at,and missing more pitches. He’s even swinging at a lower percentage of pitches within the strike zone.
Swing harder, and with more lift, your hard hit ball percentage and exit velocity go up, and Duran is seeing career highs in those metrics this year.
In my unscientific analysis, Duran is one of many Sox batters who seem harder swinging, and less selective, than in the past, and my sense is to attribute that to what team analytics and the hitting coaches are preaching to the players.
As a guy who can’t stand watching the Celtics miss 11 consecutive three-point shots, where long runs of possessions seem to consist of nothing more than “pass the ball back and forth around the perimeter, never look inside, and whoever has the ball with 1.6 seconds left jacks up a three”, I also miss the days when hitters prioritized putting the ball in play over swinging as hard as possible, but, like the threes in basketball, the stats guys will tell you that hitting 3 home runs in a game improves win odds considerably more than getting 12 hits, and that a strike out really isn’t a bad outcome.
By my same eyeball test, it appears that Duran has bulked up, considerably, from earlier years – that fits in with the idea of making hard contact and hitting for power. I can believe that bulking up has negatively impacted his outfield range, because his once-plus defensive skills are trending sharply downward as well.
TL/DR version: The team seems to be preaching harder swinging, more lift and less plate discipline, across the lineup, and encouraged hitters to bulk up.
That being said – trading a talented, controllable player for a rental, having a down season, and is more likely than not to leave for “greener pastures” this winter is a “throwing all your chips in to maybe win one hand” move. Adding Dylan Cease would not make the Red Sox considerably likely to win it all in Cease’s (likely) dozen or so starts with the team, and Duran offers more long-term upside AS A MEMBER OF THE RED SOX (note that this is not offering any opinion on who will ultimately have the better career) and/or can be expected to bring a better package of controllable players over the winter, if the Sox choose to trade from their surplus of outfielders.
Finally, nothing about the data that I’m seeing provides any determinative evidence that Duran has peaked, and the rest of his career will be a disappointment. Maybe it has, but the numbers aren’t showing that.
Don’t you know exit velo and launch angle win games?
Are you seriously doubting the genius of Dillon Lawson?
Can’t wait for the Red Sox to hold onto all of their outfielders and then miss the playoffs, or have a very quick exit, due to lack of quality pitching. Gotta love it.
Why can’t you wait for that and what is to love unless you are actively rooting against them…in that case good luck
I’m not actively rooting against them, and I also don’t want them to trade Duran for that kind of return. They need another top tier SP if they want to make a deep run. Unless Cease finds the BALCO Fountain of youth, he ain’t it this season.
This is exactly why they should have made a bigger splash in the FA pitchers market instead of Buehler, but no need to dwell on that…
This is just the most likely outcome based on how the Red Sox have been managed since Dombrowski left.
If you’re going to trade for a pitcher, you get a back of rotation innings eater who costs a minimal prospect.
Never understood why everybody thinks he getting traded during the season. He is their lead off hitter and they are in playoff contention
I could have told you that long ago. Trading him made no sense.
Mariners
C Harry Ford
1B Raley ( under contract for 3.5 years)
Sp Emerson Hancock
For
Sox
Duran
Pirates have pitching! They need hitters. Never have enough pitching!Make a deal.
Keller for Duran makes to much sense but probably more sense in off season
Mariners really have a lot to offer for Duran. Just depends on what Red Sox need or value
Mariners have plenty of top prospects, starting pitching, young good position players . A lot of players are blocked right now
Top prospects are crushing it in AAA 1B Tyler Locklear,C Harry Ford, rookies Emerson Hancock and Logan Evan’s are ready for a starting position in the mlb.
Veterans polo, Moore, Garver all have had their moments this year but are getting limited playing time
Luis Castillo will be traded this offseason, not sure they will move him in as playoff run though.
what would it take from the mariners for Duran?
They value young good controllable mlb level pitching that is the only return that will move this needle…the red sox have one of the best farms in mlb so teams offering prospects as the headliner to a deal for Duran need to not waste thier time imo..if the Ms are interested in moving one of thier young established rotation pieces there is a deal there
Only one that makes sense to lose would be Bryce Miller. Because he can’t help the mariners this year, but that also doesn’t help the Sox this year..
Right yer not getting him for someone that help red sox this year…no pain no gain…however with Mayer going on IL and rafaela moving to 2b Duran likely isn’t going anywhere
I wonder if the Sox would try to get Kyle Freeland. He wouldn’t cost Duran (or probably anything significant), has been decent in his last 6 starts (16 ER in 34 innings) and as a lefty would add balance to the rotation. Might have more upside than Morton at this point with a real team playing behind him and getting out of Denver
With years of control and one year removed from a great year this tells me they were getting ‘pennies on the dollar’ offer.
Duran’s in the midst of a decent season but has taken a massive step back from his All-Star 2024 campaign that ended with an eighth place finish in a crowded NL MVP race.
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Wow! And he doesn’t even play for an NL team!
That three pack for Duran would be lousy for Boston. Cease is walking after September and the other two haven’t proven much of anything.
Still 6 more days until deadline and teams are getting feelers out. No sense to take the first offer. I like Duran, but if they can get a good return then trade him. Like some have mentioned he is having a tough time against left handing pitchers batting just over 209. He looked good in the field last year, but this year he looks bad only to be saved by his athleticism. I don’t know how many balls he misplayed and had to jump for to make an average play look more than average. Sox are in the drivers seat here and probably best to trade him while his value is still pretty high with an outfield log Jam and more prospects coming up…(the password.) Then on the other hand he defiantly not hurting them and if he breaks out in the second half his value could be higher for offseason trade.
Seriously, Abreu is the one that should be traded… not Duran. As long as Cora is in the Sox Dugout Abreu is a platoon player.
Duran looks like he will have the career arc of Jacoby Ellsbury. So much of his value is tied to speed so once he loses a step he will become an average player at best.
if the Sox are not going to be sellers (I still hold firm that they should be sellers- they are quickly falling back to earth on this road trip and I think will be at .500 come the deadline), then just hold on to who they have and not make any stupid snap judgement moves that will offer little to no benefit for the team today, the rest of the season, and down the road.
This might be exactly the way they are thinking by holding onto Duran right now. Why dump a good player for a rental plus when the team hasn’t shown they can win two of three from contenders?
One out of three versus contenders is not going to get it done that’s for sure.
Quickly? They had a 10 game winning streak end 6 games ago ..it can be argued they should have won 2 of 3 in Philly..if they beat the Dodgers 2 times this weekend then what?…play to win..or not at all they have money and prospects..use em
Duran ranks in the bottom 6% in Outfield Defense, per StatCast. That’s why he’s the available one out of the BoSox OF group…