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Garrett Crochet Rumors: Cubs, Padres, Yankees, Red Sox, Reds

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7:28pm: MLBNetwork’s Jon Morosi reported this evening that a Crochet deal coming together during the Winter Meetings this week is “increasingly possible.” What’s more, Morosi suggests that the Red Sox are “more willing” to listen on top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer than previously believed and could become a more significant factor in Crochet’s trade market if they make him available in trade talks with the White Sox.

4:23pm: Garrett Crochet’s status as the offseason’s top trade candidate means that there is plenty of buzz surrounding the White Sox southpaw as the Winter Meetings get underway.  A crosstown trade could be a possibility, as Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the Cubs “have had at least preliminary talks” with the Sox about Crochet’s availability.

The Cubs’ list of top prospects is heavy on position players, which could fit with White Sox GM Chris Getz’s stated aim of obtaining premium position-player talent in exchange for Crochet’s services.  It is easy to imagine Getz asking for at least one of Matt Shaw or Owen Caissie as a headliner in a trade package, or perhaps even Pete Crow-Armstrong if the Sox wanted a player with some actual big league experience.  Given the Cubs’ depth at both the MLB and minor league levels, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might feel comfortable in parting with a younger blue-chipper in order to land a controllable pitcher.

Crochet is projected to earn only $2.9MM in arbitration this season, and he is under one further year of team control in 2026.  Even if Crochet’s production takes a dip from his 2024 numbers, he’d still be a bargain in comparison to the cost of the average starting pitcher.  This might be the type of special circumstance that would make the Cubs want to keep adding to their rotation, even though the Wrigleyville starting five already seems set with Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, and new signing Matthew Boyd.

The White Sox are known to have a very high asking price on Crochet, and apparently had interest in at least one of Ethan Salas or Leodalis De Vries in trade talks with the Padres, as per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  San Diego has been linked to Crochet on the rumor mill since prior to the trade deadline, yet the Friars have seemingly drawn a line when it comes to moving either of the top two prospects in their farm system.

The Padres and Cubs are just two of the many clubs known to have had some level of interest in Crochet in the last six months, and given his low price, it’s probably safe to say just about every team in baseball has probably at least checked in with Getz about what it would take to land the left-hander.  The Yankees refused to deal Spencer Jones to the White Sox for Crochet prior to the deadline, but MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (X link) writes that New York is still “believed to be in” on the Crochet sweepstakes.

Boston may be a different story, as Cotillo hears that the Red Sox are “just on the periphery of Garrett Crochet talks and are not aggressors at all.”  This tracks with reporting from Cotillo’s MassLive colleague Sean McAdam a couple of weeks ago, as McAdam wrote that negotiations between the two Sox teams had seemingly quieted.  On paper, the Red Sox would seemingly be an ideal fit for Crochet given Boston’s need for frontline pitching and their collection of elite position-player prospects (Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel), but obviously a match depends on what exactly Chicago would want back in return.  For instance, there have been reports that Anthony and Campbell are the true untouchables within the “big four” Red Sox prospects, so talks might have cooled with the White Sox are insisting on one of those two.

There appear to be mixed signals on whether or not the Reds could be involved.  Cotillo writes that “Cincinnati [is] seen as a real threat to land Crochet,” but Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer throws cold water on the possibility, saying that “the talks went nowhere” between the Reds and White Sox, “and there’s no reason to think they’ll re-engage at this point.”  Wittenmyer notes that the two sides discussed Crochet before Cincinnati acquired Brady Singer from the Royals, so that deal could mark the end of any higher-level pitching moves the Reds could make.

Padres Notes: Profar, Higashioka, De Vries, Salas

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The postseason will move on without the Padres involved tonight when the Mets travel to Dodger Stadium for Game 1 of the NLCS, and the Padres now figure to turn their attention to building for the 2025 season. Among the top needs to address on the club’s offseason to-do list figures to be addressing the needs created by the possible departure of pending free agents. Infielder Ha-Seong Kim is perhaps the club’s most high-profile free agent, though between his recent surgery leaving questions regarding his market and San Diego’s considerable depth in the middle infield, left fielder Jurickson Profar and catcher Kyle Higashioka are likely higher priorities for the club to either return or replace.

In the case of Profar, the 31-year-old has made clear that he prefers to stay with the Padres. Profar told reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) yesterday that he hopes to return to San Diego next year before acknowledging that the decision isn’t “totally in [his] hands,” adding that the Padres “have got to want [him], too.”

After signing a one-year deal with the Padres over the offseason that guaranteed him just $1MM last year, Profar enjoyed a breakout season that is sure to earn him a significant pay raise headed into 2025. In 158 games with San Diego this year, Profar slashed an excellent .280/.380/.459 (139 wRC+) with 24 home runs, 10 steals, a strong 11.1% walk rate and an excellent 15.1% strikeout rate. That strong all-around play came together to create by far the most valuable season of Profar’s career as he posted 4.3 fWAR, leaving him sandwiched between Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker as the seventh most valuable outfielder in baseball this year.

That strong season should make Profar among the most interesting free agents of the winter. Valuable as his offense was this year, he provides virtually no defensive value as a below-average glove limited to left field and his track record on offense is spotty at best. Profar’s career wRC+ is actually below league average (99) even after this year’s phenomenal campaign, and even his 107 wRC+ since first joining San Diego in 2020 is closer to solid than spectacular for a player of Profar’s limited defensive value. If those possible red flags leave teams cautious about giving Profar a hefty guarantee, it’s certainly feasible to imagine the sides working something out to keep the veteran in San Diego going forward.

Of course, a Profar reunion would only serve to further elevate what already figures to be a complicated payroll picture for the Padres next year. The club is currently set to be on the hook for just over $207MM according to RosterResource next year, with a payroll of more than $243MM for luxury tax purposes. It’s possible that offseason trades or perhaps even a creative extension for an arbitration-level player like Luis Arraez could lower those numbers, but the Padres nonetheless appear likely to be nearing their payroll capacity even before reuniting with Profar or addressing the multiple holes in the club’s rotation.

That could leave the Padres needing to scrimp on other parts of the roster, particularly if they hope to retain Profar. One position where the club could look to save money is behind the plate, where Kyle Higashioka impressed in his final year before free agency with 17 homers in 263 trips to the plate for the Padres this year. Much like Profar, Higashioka indicated an interest in returning to the Padres as he heads into free agency, telling reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that he loved playing in southern California and that his time with the Padres has been the most fun he’s had with a team.

With Higashioka potentially in line for a hefty raise this winter, however, Acee suggests that San Diego brass could instead look to part ways with both him and Kim this winter as they wait for the impending arrival of the club’s top prospects. Catcher Ethan Salas entered the 2024 season as a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball after reaching the Double-A level as a 17 year old, but Acee notes that shortstop prospect Leodalis De Vries, who turned 18 just two days ago, is even more highly regarded by Padres brass.

What’s more, Acee notes that there have been discussions within the organization about the possibility of both teenage phenoms making their big league debuts as soon as 2025. If the Padres truly believe both players could be ready for the majors sometime next year, that could incentivize them to focus on other areas of the roster this winter and stick to relatively short-term options behind the plate and at shortstop who could be pushed aside in the event that Salas or De Vries cracks the big league roster.

Of course, both players would need to rocket through the minor leagues at a breakneck pace to reach the majors next year. Salas spent the entire 2024 season at the High-A level and slashed a lackluster .206/.288/.311 in 111 games with the club, while De Vries slashed an excellent .238/.361/.442 across 75 games in his first taste of professional action this year but has not yet played above the Single-A level. While breakout rookie Jackson Merrill stands as an example of San Diego’s willingness to push top prospects aggressively, even he had nearly 50 games of success in the upper minors before cracking the big league roster.

Padres Hoping To Add Starter, Have Discussed Jack Flaherty With Tigers

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The Padres fortified their bullpen with their weekend acquisition of righty Jason Adam from the Rays, but they’re not done yet. Dennis Lin and Chad Jennings of The Athletic report that San Diego is hoping to add “at least” one starter and is still open to bringing in additional relief help. They’ve had discussions with the Tigers about Jack Flaherty, per the report, and have indeed at least checked in on a potential Blake Snell reunion (as was reported last night).

Flaherty, 28, stands as one of the likeliest trade candidates on the market. He’s on a one-year, $14MM contract with a Tigers club that faces a 12-game deficit in the AL Central and a 5.5-game gap in the chase for the final AL Wild Card spot (with four teams to leapfrog in that hunt). The Tigers could hold onto Flaherty and make him a qualifying offer — he’s a lock to reject and at least net them a draft pick it after his brilliant 2024 rebound — but the demand for pitching should allow Detroit to extract a better package than that potential comp pick.

In 106 2/3 innings since signing with Detroit, Flaherty boasts a 2.95 ERA with an exceptional 32% strikeout rate and an outstanding 4.6% walk rate. Among the 80 pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched in 2024, Flaherty has the fifth-best strikeout rate, the seventh-best walk rate and the second best differential between those two marks (trailing only White Sox ace Garrett Crochet). He’s also keeping the ball on the ground at a solid 43% clip, and this year’s 93.5 mph average fastball is his best since 2021. Flaherty also has the sixth-best swinging-strike rate among those 80 pitchers, trailing only Crochet, Cole Ragans, Tarik Skubal, Dylan Cease and Chris Sale — an impressive collection of some of the game’s top arms.

The Friars’ once-outstanding farm system has been thinned over the years by president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s insatiable appetite for marquee trades. San Diego recouped some of the value they lost when trading five top prospects for Juan Soto in the offseason when they traded their final year of control over Soto to the Yankees. However, the headline prospect in that trade never threw a regular season pitch in the Padres organization; right-hander Drew Thorpe was instead packaged with three other farmhands in a trade to acquire Dylan Cease during spring training. Preller has since further thinned the system with trades for Luis Arraez and the aforementioned Adam.

Catcher Ethan Salas and young shortstop Leodalis De Vries still rank among the sport’s elite prospects, but all indications to this point have been that both are close to untouchable. Lin recently wrote a separate piece on that subject, and veritably any report connecting the Padres to a high-end trade target has suggested that Salas and De Vries aren’t expected to be in play. That’s likely all the more true when it comes to a rental like Flaherty (or a high-priced star with an opt-out clause, like Snell).

The Padres have been without right-hander Yu Darvish for weeks as he tends to an undisclosed personal matter. He’s on the restricted list indefinitely. Right-hander Joe Musgrove has been out since May due to a bone spur in his elbow and is on the 60-day injured list. They currently have Dylan Cease, Michael King, Matt Waldron and Randy Vasquez in the rotation, but Vasquez has spent much of the season flirting with a 5.00 ERA while King has already set a new career-high for innings pitched. Adding Flaherty or another arm to the mix would both help to bridge the gap until Musgrove and/or Darvish are ready to return and also give the Padres another impact arm for a potential postseason rotation. A theoretical group fronted by Cease, Flaherty, Musgrove and Darvish would be formidable, assuming all four are healthy and active.

Padres Showing Strong Interest In Garrett Crochet

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The Padres are showing strong interest in left-hander Garrett Crochet of the White Sox, per a report from Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The report cautions that no deal is imminent but it also states that the Friars have been the most aggressive club in pursuing Crochet.

Significant trades are fairly rare at this time of the year, with the trade deadline still almost two months away. However, there are reasons why it’s not so far-fetched with these two clubs. The two sides already lined up on a notable deal at an odd time not too long ago, when the Sox sent Dylan Cease to the Padres in the middle of March, just as the season was about to begin. Each club has also made a noteworthy trade since that time, with the Sox sending Robbie Grossman to the Rangers in early May and the Padres acquiring Luis Arráez from the Marlins around the same time.

For the Sox, they have been aggressively rebuilding for about a year now, selling off just about any player nearing free agency. For the Padres, it’s a part of their general modus operandi, as president of baseball operations A.J. Preller seems to have a strong will to explore all possible avenues for upgrading the club even if those overtures fall outside of standard operating procedure.

But there are also reasons why a deal may not get done. Crochet is in a very unique situation, which makes him less straightforward than other players the Sox have traded. He is still quite young, only 24 years old, turning 25 later this month. He is still under club control for two more years after this one and is only making $800K this year. That’s a reflection of both his quick ascent to the majors and his injury troubles, as he was in the big leagues by his age-21 season but has missed significant time and hasn’t been able to push his salary up.

The Sox put Crochet in the bullpen when they first called him up, an understandable move at the time given his youth and lack of experience. But he then required Tommy John surgery in April of 2022, which prevented him from pitching at all in 2022 and limited him to just 13 appearances last year.

His time spent on the injured list allowed him to reach arbitration in the most recent offseason, but the lengthy absence meant that he barely pushed his salary above the $740K league minimum. Despite a fairly limited innings tally, the Sox decided to stretch him out this year and the results have been excellent. Crochet has thrown 69 2/3 innings over his 13 starts this year, allowing 3.49 earned runs per nine innings. He has struck out 33.7% of batters faced, limited walks to a 5.4% clip and also gotten grounders on 45.2% of balls in play.

For the Sox, they suddenly seem to have an ace on their hands, one who is still young and cheap and doesn’t have a ton on mileage on his arm. But on the other hand, his early promotion and Tommy John layoff means that he’s getting close-ish to free agency. Given the state of the Sox, it’s hard to imagine them returning to contention in the time frame of his club control, as their current record of 15-45 is easily the worst in the league.

Signing Crochet to an extension would be one way to avoid the trade path, but the lefty would have to agree to that. Thanks to his early call-up, he’s currently slated to reach free agency shortly after his 27th birthday, a rarely young age that could leave him well positioned to cash in a couple of years from now. The most recent offseason was rough for a lot of players, as many of them had to settle for deals well below expectations. But two players who blew past predictions were Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee, both of whom were 25 years old.

If that leaves the Sox open to a trade, the time to do it is now when Crochet’s value is highest. By the offseason, they will only be able to market two postseason runs instead of three, while Crochet’s salary will also increase via arbitration.

But whether the Padres can pull off such a trade is another question, something that Lin and Rosenthal highlight in their report. The Friars have traded away many prospects in recent years, including in the aforementioned deals for Cease and Arráez, as well as for Juan Soto, Josh Hader, Sean Manaea and others. Per today’s report, the Sox would probably need to bring back a significant position player in any Crochet deal. The report mentions prospects Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries as possibilities but adds that the Padres are reluctant to part with either of those two in a Crochet deal.

Whether a deal can be done remains to be seen, but it’s understandable why the Padres are sniffing around for starting pitching. They recently put Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish on the injured list, subtracting two of their most established starters. They still have Cease, but the rotation gets flimsy after that. Michael King was mostly a reliever until about a year ago and is still in the process of cementing himself as a big league starter. Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez each have less than 105 major league innings pitched in their respective careers while Adam Mazur is going to be called up to make his major league debut this week.

Despite the rotation struggles, the club is currently 32-31 and holding onto a Wild Card spot. Proactively acquiring Crochet or any starting pitcher now, as opposed to waiting until the deadline in late July, could help the club stay afloat in what is shaping up to be a very competitive National League playoff race.

Big Hype Prospects: Schanuel, Winn, Marte, Harrison, Salas

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We’ve reached the point of the season when prospect call-ups won’t expend their rookie status due to time spent on the roster. It’s still technically possible for such players to pass the plate appearance or innings pitched thresholds.

In any event, this marks an opportunity for teams to offer their young players time to acclimate in the Majors ahead of a Rookie of the Year bid in 2024. We saw similar with Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson last season. Let’s cover a few such players along with others on the ascent.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Nolan Schanuel, 21, 1B, LAA (MLB)
14 PA, .250/.357/.250

Schanuel was summoned by a desperate Angels club to cover for the absence of C.J. Cron. The 2023 draftee has over twice as many walks as strikeouts in limited professional action. In a perfect world, he likely would have spent more time in the minors working on achieving higher-quality contact. There isn’t a spot on the Angels roster for both Cron and Schanuel. In other words, we can expect Schanuel to return to the minors if and when Cron recovers from his lower-back tightness. Until then, we’ll see if Schanuel can learn to complement his discipline and feel for contact with better lift and exit velocities.

Masyn Winn, 21, SS, STL (MLB)
(AAA) 498 PA, 18 HR, 17 SB, .288/.359/.474

A high-probability league-average shortstop with upside for more, Winn is now 11 plate appearances into his Major League career. The well-rounded shortstop makes up for a lack of carrying traits (besides his impressive throwing arm) with an equal lack of weaknesses. There’s only one knock against him: merely adequate exit velocities. Adequacy is hardly damning praise. For a 21-year-old to possess his skills and traits means he has countless ways to take the next step from acceptability to stardom. He could do it on defense, through feel for contact, burgeoning power, speed on the basepaths, or a little bit of everything.

Noelvi Marte, 21, 3B, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 389 PA, 11 HR, 18 SB, .281/.360/.460

Marte was one of the first prospects covered by this column last season. I noted a slight souring among evaluators who were beginning to see him as more of a core performer than a future star. His performance this season remains prime for disagreement. The surface level stats are good-not-great, and his peripherals are a mixed bag. He’s a tad prone to swinging strikes. Even so, he avoids strikeouts while showing plus discipline. He also produces exciting top-end exit velocities for a 21-year-old. Some scouts think he’s close to physically maxed out. Others see room for further growth.

Broad strokes, the outlook is similar to Winn albeit from a lesser defensive position. There are so many ways for Marte to find his way to star-caliber production. The floor resembles a Major League core performer.

Kyle Harrison, 22, SP, SFG (MLB)
(AAA) 65.2 IP, 14.39 K/9, 6.58 BB/9, 4.66 ERA

Harrison makes for one of the toughest evals in the minors. He has a feel for missing bats along with the repertoire of a high-ceilinged starting pitcher. He also happens to struggle with command and control. Of his 21 starts, Harrison reached five innings exactly once. He never faced 20 or more batters. The relief risk is ooey-gooey tangible, but the Giants have every incentive to give him more time in the rotation. Presently, Harrison is expected to join a unit consisting of Logan Webb and a handful of struggling veterans like Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Sean Manaea, and Jakob Junis. The Giants will be playing bullpen games from here through the end of the season.

Ethan Salas, 17, C, SDP (AA)
(A/A+) 257 PA, 9 HR, 5 SB, .257/.335/.447

At the tender age of 17 years, 2 months, and 20 days, Salas finds himself in Double-A. This latest promotion is virtually unprecedented, made all the more so because Salas hit just .200/.243/.229 in 37 High-A plate appearances. It doesn’t require an active imagination to wonder what else is going on here. Perhaps the Padres Double-A affiliate has a desirable instructor or facilities. Maybe, like a baby bird, he imprinted on one of the other players the Padres promoted to Double-A yesterday. Could a long-term contract be in the offing?

In any event, Salas is now the youngest player to grace Double-A in recent memory. He’s considered a precocious receiver with the potential to become a quality hitter too.

Three More

Carson Williams, TBR (20): The Rays promoted Williams from High-A straight to Triple-A. The move allows for Junior Caminero’s (Double-A) development to remain unaffected. Williams is 1-for-13 with two walks and six strikeouts. He’s running a 22.2 percent swinging strike rate with poor exit velocities. Note the tiny sample.

Samuel Zavala, SDP (18): Though not quite on the Salas-track, Zavala earned a promotion to High-A yesterday after hitting .267/.420/.451 with 14 home runs and 20 steals in 459 Low-A plate appearances. He has issues adjusting to pitches in certain parts of the strike zone, especially up-and-away.

Paul Skenes, PIT (21): Earlier today, the Pirates announced Skenes would join the Double-A club, skipping High-A in the process. Whether this move is in preparation for a 2023 or 2024 debut, it won’t be long before we see Skenes grace a big league mound.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Salas, Merrill, Yorke, Hence, Mayo

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We missed a week while I was on the injured list (back spasms sustained while diving back to first base). There’s much for us to cover. Let’s start with some high-profile Padres. While the draft is tempting, let’s look in on those guys as they sign.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Ethan Salas, 17, C, SDP (A)
139 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .259/.381/.500

When we adjourned two weeks ago, Salas was batting .208/.340/.286 in 94 plate appearances. An 82 wRC+ isn’t anything to sniff at when we’re talking about a guy who’s 17-and-one-month old playing in full-season ball. Over the last two weeks, Salas hit .371/.467/.971. Including a HBP, he has as many free passes as strikeouts during the span. Of his 13 hits, he bopped five homers, four doubles, and a triple. That adds up to a 240 wRC+ for the hot streak and a 133 wRC+ on the season. If he keeps this up for long, he’ll find himself playing against High-A competition before the season ends. He’s “on pace” to debut as a teenager – a feat he can accomplish as long as he reaches the Majors before June 1, 2026.

Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
300 PA, 10 HR, 10 SB, .280/.318/.444

Salas’ future teammate had to grind through a rough April before turning a corner. The Midwest League is a difficult hitting environment. His first month of play consisted of a .188/.247/.338 performance. In the three months since then, he’s hit .317/.348/.487 while making steady improvements. Lately, he’s found a power stroke. Since June 14, he’s hit six of his 10 home runs. Merrill isn’t expected to be much of a power hitter. His carrying trait is an advanced feel for contact. He rarely meets a pitch with which he can’t connect. His discipline lags a bit, though it’s not as if he’s Javy Baez. An unsubstantiated theory of mine is that his early-season slump was the result of contacting too many pitches outside of the zone. The theory fits what data I have available, though I haven’t discussed it with anybody who would actually know.

Nick Yorke, 2B, 21, BOS (AA)
316 PA, 9 HR, 6 SB, .275/.361/.453

Folks weren’t sure what to make of Yorke’s forgettable 2022 campaign. The industry had a little chuckle when the Red Sox “reached” for Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. After a superb 2021 season, everyone adjusted expectations. Then 2022 happened. Some evaluators stuck with their updated outlook and blamed injuries. Others pointed to his subpar defense and wrote him off.

Yorke has rebounded this season – perhaps not enough to make up for his defensive shortcomings. His current 122 wRC+ depends upon a .353 BABIP. He also has 13.0 percent swinging strike and 25.0 percent strikeout rates. Historically, prospects with similar statistical performances have been prone to stalling out in the Quad-A bucket. For now, we should view Yorke’s rebound as a positive development. Perhaps more distance from his injury-riddled 2022 will lead to improvements in his quality or rate of contact.

Tink Hence, 20, SP, STL (AA)
(A+) 41.2 IP, 9.94 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 2.81 ERA

Hence received a promotion to Double-A at the beginning of July. He also picked up a hold in the Futures Game. The pitching-needy Cardinals surely hope Hence can remain in the rotation. Alas, though he doesn’t walk many hitters, he’s not known for sharp command. His breaking ball is a weapon. It’s expected he should join the many pitchers who have mastered manipulating breaking ball spin for different effects. He doesn’t have a consistent changeup. Taken with the errant fastball command and history of brief outings, the relief risk is palpable. That said, Hence has yet to meet a challenge he hasn’t mastered. His Double-A debut was the first appearance of his career in which he faced more than 20 batters (22).

Coby Mayo, 21, 3B, BAL (AA)
347 PA, 17 HR, 4 SB, .307/.424/.603

With a 176 wRC+ on the season, Mayo is one of the top qualified hitters in the minors. He’ll play his next game in Triple-A, ending a nearly 500-plate appearance stint in Double-A. Mayo has traits grounded in the 2019 juiced ball era. He’s a pull-oriented slugger who generates plenty of loft. As a right-handed hitter, he’s not an ideal fit for Camden Yards. However, his power is such that he could overcome the home field limitations. It will be interesting to see if Mayo can continue to run elevated BABIPs into the Majors as this is a hitting profile typically associated with low BABIPs. Hypothetically, if a franchise-altering talent is made available at the trade deadline, Mayo would go a long way toward securing a deal. They’ll eventually have to trade somebody they like.

Three More

Johan Rojas, PHI (22): The Phillies are angling to get Kyle Schwarber into the DH slot. The plan would involve Cristian Pache in center and Brandon Marsh in left. If Pache doesn’t work out, Rojas has a similar reputation as a superlative defender who might hit enough to create a lot of value. In 354 Double-A plate appearances, Rojas is batting .306/.361/.484 with nine homers and 30 steals. He’s on the 40-man roster.

River Ryan, LAD (24): The latest pitcher to pop in the Dodgers system, Ryan features a promising four-pitch repertoire. In the month of June, he tossed two five-inning no-hitters. His command hasn’t been particularly sharp. Even across those two no-nos, Ryan issued four walks and hit three batters. It’s thought he’ll eventually develop better command. If not, he has a relief floor.

Ignacio Alvarez, ATL (20): A ripped shortstop who recently turned 20, Alvarez evokes Yandy Diaz right down to the comical biceps, low-angle contact, discipline, and rare whiffs. The comparison is hard to avoid. He might just be the next Brave to skip the line to the Majors. He generally keeps the ball on the ground with an all-fields approach. He’s expected to eventually move to third base, though he remains passable at shortstop for now.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Williams, Davis

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Due to travel, it’s been a little over a month since the last Big Hype Prospects. Let’s check in on who is making waves.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A+)
(A/A+)158 PA, 6 HR, 11 SB, .394/.513/.701

Holliday’s introduction to professional baseball could not be more encouraging. He leads all qualified minor league hitters with a 222 wRC+. After wrecking Low-A pitching, he’s eviscerating High-A competition in the same manner. He evinces excellent plate discipline and a feel for stinging contact. His nearly .500 BABIP isn’t the product of luck – he’s simply outclassing the competition with an all-fields approach. If there’s a quibble, it’s that he rarely lofts the ball. Even so, that’s not affecting his power output – he has an excellent .300 ISO on the season.

To outside observers, Holliday is seemingly ready for a challenge at Double-A. It’s worth remembering he has just 93 plate appearances in High-A and a total of only 248 professional plate appearances. As long as the Orioles don’t believe he’s stagnating, a longer stint in High-A could prove appropriate. A stable environment helps with certain types of learning. On the other hand, we’re all eager to see what he does when finally challenged.

Junior Caminero, 19, 3B, TBR (A+)
146 PA, 11 HR, 2 SB, .351/.404/.709

I’ve put out a few calls for updated notes on Caminero since those I’ve gathered disagree about his future feel for contact. Presently, few hitters have shown comparable capacity for power. The folks at FanGraphs emphasized “his lack of ball/strike recognition” in a recent report, a concern shared by other evaluators. However, as others point out, such issues are hardly unprecedented among successful Major Leaguers. In this day and age, it’s not as if a 19-year-old slugger is incapable of making adjustments. It hasn’t been a problem in High-A because practically everything he hits is hammered. His .362 ISO ranks sixth in the minors. Double-A will mark an important challenge for Caminero.

Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
158 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .302/.430/.426

Carter can be a divisive prospect. It’s so easy to fall in love with the discipline and feel for contact. A Major League future feels inevitable. The floor for Carter is seemingly so high. Brandon Nimmo comps abound. All the same traits – even body type and line-drive-based power are there. It’s rare for prospect analysis to gush about a player’s floor, and perhaps that’s the problem with Carter. We’re usually focused on ceiling and, barring a change, Carter’s feels limited; like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best core contributors in the league. Will we find him on many All-Star teams? Probably not at his current power output.

The same point I made with Caminero applies to Carter. Never has it been easier for players to make positive adjustments to their game. Just because a prospect looks and feels like Brandon Nimmo doesn’t mean they’re destined to stay in their lane. Carter could follow the path of Lars Nootbaar to higher exit velocities. Or, like a different Cardinals outfielder, he could stall out against some aspect of Major League pitching.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 40 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.58 ERA

A number of my favorite pitching prospects are in the Guardians system, and Williams is probably the best of the bunch. After three laser-sharp outings in Double-A, he was promoted to Triple-A where he’s remained effective. He worked 115 innings last season, so there is some scope for him to contribute in the Majors this season while managing his workload. However, the Guardians will soon welcome back Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie. A near-term opportunity might not present itself. Williams features a four-pitch repertoire of upper-90s fastball, well-commanded slider, curve, and changeup. To my eyes, it looks as if he has sinking and riding fastballs – or perhaps the pitch behaved differently based on vertical location (I haven’t seen this mentioned in reports). Like most power pitchers, the changeup lags behind the other offerings, though it is viewed as a viable pitch with promise. The word “intensity” appears on multiple public reports.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
141 PA, 10 HR, 5 SB, .297/.447/.631

Davis’ second tour in Double-A is going swimmingly. After a mere 97 wRC+ over a similar span last season, his current 189 wRC+ ranks sixth in the minors. He’s also showing the walk, strikeout, and contact rates of a future star. Davis was drafted as a slugging catcher who might eventually wind up at first base. As yet, the Pirates have mostly used him as a catcher this season with a few odd starts at designated hitter and right field. Davis has an extreme, pulled, fly ball approach which isn’t exactly suited to PNC Park. However, he has the raw power to make it work even if a few would-be dingers die on the warning track. It’s feeling increasingly probable we see both Davis and Endy Rodriguez in Pittsburgh later this summer – especially if the club can remain competitive in the standings.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain was selected about a week ago after hitting .348/.474/.710 in Triple-A. In 22 plate appearances, he has 10 strikeouts and four hits. He’s struggled to make impactful contact after averaging 90.9-mph EV in Triple-A. McLain has a narrow window to impress Cincinnati decision-makers before the likes of Elly De La Cruz and others arrive on the scene.

Nolan Jones, COL (25): A post-hype prospect, Jones is a disciplined power hitter who has a bit of a Quad-A reputation at the moment. He’s producing a .362/.486/.723 line in a heady offensive environment with 90.5-mph average EV (113.7-mph Max EV). He’s splitting time between first base, third base, and right field – all positions the Rockies could stand to upgrade (at least indirectly).

Ethan Salas, SDP (16): As my favorite contact put it, “Salas is bound to be the first 16-year-old position player in a full-season league in a loooooong time.” The young catcher is already entering Top 100 lists.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to discuss corrections.

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