Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:
1. Are the Royals buyers?
The first post-draft trade of the year took place yesterday and, while it shouldn’t shock anyone that the Pirates sold off veteran infield rental Adam Frazier, it’s at least a mild surprise that the buying club was the Royals. Kansas City has a pedestrian 47-50 record to this point in the year and remains 4.5 games out of the AL Wild Card picture. While they aren’t buried in the postseason picture, FanGraphs gives them just an 11.7% chance of making the postseason. That left many assuming that they were more likely to sell off short-term pieces like Seth Lugo than add rental players this summer, though it’s at least possible Frazier is something of a special case. The Royals are familiar with the 33-year-old after he was part of the club last year, and given the fact that he’s hitting just .255/.318/.336 this season he wasn’t exactly expensive in trade.
Still, the deal makes the Royals a team to keep an eye on coming out of the break, as a win streak could push them further away from selling. The Royals open the second half with three games in Miami, followed by three in Chicago against the Cubs. They’ll then host the Guardians and Braves in their final two series prior to the July 31 deadline.
2. Bubble teams nearing decision time:
While the Royals may have tipped their hand about their deadline plans to some extent, they’re far from the only team on the bubble between buying and selling. Fresh rumors about the Diamondbacks’ deadline strategy surfaced yesterday, and it wouldn’t be a shock if teams like the Braves, Twins, Rangers, and Reds joined them in sending some additional signals about their trade deadline strategies coming out of the All-Star break. Depending on how many teams decide to sell this summer, perhaps there’s even room for an opportunistic club more clearly on the buy-side of things like the Red Sox or Rays to part ways with a piece like Jarren Duran or Taj Bradley (both of whom have been in the rumor mill) in the right deal.
3. Transactions kicking up ahead of return to play:
Yesterday saw a handful of transactions around the league as teams start to begin preparations for the second half. The Rangers placed Jake Burger on the injured list to maximize their ability to backdate the IL stint, and it’s possible that any players around the league nursing potential injuries who played on Sunday could similarly be placed on the shelf today if their club believes a minimum stint is on the table. Aside from that, there was some movement surrounding the waiver wire as Elvin Rodriguez was plucked off waivers by the Orioles while Rob Brantly was DFA’d by the Marlins. Multiple players triggered opt-out provisions in their minor league contracts as well. Additional minor transactions like those could begin to take place today as teams prepare for their impending return to the field tomorrow, to say nothing of the possibility of another trade or two breaking today.
If there was truly a bubble team, Big Dumper would definitely be on it.
@Fever Pitch Guy
New full season AL HR king incoming!
Don’t quite get these “Boston selling” hot takes that show up daily. Not necessarily here as this piece frames a deal for win now return. Team is 1 game behind NYY
I don’t think the above article reference meant Boston was selling. I think they are talking about Boston trading from their outfield “surplus” to fill an area that was more a weakness?
Beer – Almost nobody is saying they should sell, but fact is they have a worse record at this point than last season and they have a long history of second half collapses under Cora for various reasons.
They’ve also got the hardest second half schedule in MLB.
How they finish will rely primarily on health and what they do at the trade deadline. Since 2019 the only impact player they’ve acquired midseason was Schwarber, and he came cheap because he was on the IL at the time of the trade.
If the Sox don’t come up big at the trade deadline, they will have a very hard time making the postseason. While Roman will continue to provide a spark for the offense, Bregman will likely decline from his April/May performance and it’s hard to imagine Crochet/Chapman/Giolito not declining from their incredible first half performance.
That’s fair and understood. Have been seeing these “Duran trade target” click bait stories constantly online and it just seemed bizarre for a team currently in WC position
Sox are in a great spot as a seller
They can get better this year by doing so.
Not the usual seller profile .
Which outfielder goes? For pitching?
Royals should not be buyers. wRC+ of 84 is 4th worst in the league. Terrible offense and defense. Only decent fielder on the team is Witt Jr., Bobby Witt Jr. Their pitching is really the only thing keeping them afloat and even so, they’re posting a slightly better ERA than their SIERA, which tells me their overperforming.
Royals are not acting like buyers, Frazier cost them zero prospects. Cherington was probably going to DFA him soon since he was hardly playing.
The Yankees should be considered a bubble team. They haven’t played well in over a month, the have several holes in and injuries are creating more, and whatever overpays for other team’s castoffs Cashman is contemplating will not change that,
Mike – They’ve got Gil returning, Stanton is heating up (.990 OPS this month), and Judge is pounding the ball again (1.336 OPS) after a huge (for him) decline in June.
And you know the Yanks will add at least one impact player at the deadline, they always do.
They’ve got some reason for optimism but they’re also easily the most overrated team in the sport. I don’t think they have any chance at all of going back to the World Series. Last year was a total fluke. They’re just not very good
Probably the best time for the royals to make modest additions. This way they still have a couple weeks to see if their fortune changes. If not, they can still sell.
Royals are a weird second half darkhorse. The rotation has flaked a little. But Jac Caglianone cant be disregarded. He didnt light it up like many would have liked. But he’ll click at some point. And if that occurs during the second half…itll be like dealing for a Grade A power stud…but in house. The roster has all kinds of .500 in it just like last year. Hard to imagine them setting the world on fire. But another sneak in by 1 game deal? It’s not a crazy stretch…wild card is jammed. It’ll be more what other teams do. The OF is godawful…oh lordy.
BUT…if they try to go at it like building for second half AND 2026…they could be a much better team. Detroit probably has this. But they could end up 2nd in the division and getting close to a wild card. A much more exciting team anyway. Call it trading sideways.
We’ll know theyre ready to win when they dont need like 4 “clubhouse guys” on the roster.
The Royals did Cam Devaney dirty. He was hitting in AAA then bring him up and dont give him an atbat. Then trade him for Frazier to Pittsburgh and they send him down like he couldn’t have helped their anemic hitting. Tired of these analytics guys that dont know about gamer that’s sitting in front of them. They are worse then Manfred as far as ruining the game.
Pirates just as bad if not worse. Brought up Solak, had even better AAA stats and only give him 10 ABs in 2 weeks. Send him down since he only had 1 hit. Why not play him steady for a week and see what he does.
@pan
So true. Solak is super versatile defensively. If he had even translated about league average offensive output, the Pirates would likely at least be getting a lottery ticket prospect for him within the next week or two. Instead they left him cold on the bench and shipped him back to AAA.
Im going to be fair and say there’s really NOT the straight up wonky analytics guys around that much anymore. But yeah….and that’s why a Devanney is a real good eye by the Pittsburgh pro scouting crew. But….they can ALSO be frustrated with how either the front office decides to use players..or ownership. There’s a ridiculous amount of work that goes into minor league scouting….and most things never go anywhere. The Pirates need to spend their money raiding teams like the Rays and many others of their best scouting minds. A great team at PNC will ALWAYS need to be homegrown.
I think this Fraizer move puts KC in a position to catch Detroit but that’s just me
😂
Detroit driving a recalled Ford now? Cause I’m thinking they could catch that.
This all star break has felt six weeks long. Play Ball!!