MLBTR’s team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Red Sox. There has been a lot of drama in Boston this year and it hasn't always been smooth sailing. However, a ten-game win streak just before the break has catapulted them into buyer position. The question now is how aggressive they will be in adding to the club ahead of the deadline. With a glut of outfielders, would they be willing to use that surplus to bolster another area of the roster?
Record: 53-45 (55.9% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)
For other entrants in this series, see this post.
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Potential needs: pitching, first base, backup catcher
The Sox have one elite pillar in their rotation, but it's questionable after that. Even that pillar comes with some degree of uncertainty. Garrett Crochet leads the club in starts and innings pitched, by a healthy margin in both cases. He has a 2.23 earned run average over 129 1/3 innings pitched.
Can he keep it up the rest of the way? In the early parts of his career, he was either hurt or working as a reliever. A move to the rotation last year worked out brilliantly, though the White Sox backed off his workload in the second half. He had 101 1/3 innings pitched through the end of June but then just 44 2/3 innings the rest of the way, finishing at 146 frames. Whether he can get that into the 200 range and still be effective in the postseason is something of an open question.
Even with Boston counting on Crochet to fill one playoff rotation spot, they would need more. Are Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello viable candidates? Giolito has been trending in a positive direction lately. He missed all of 2024 due to elbow surgery and then a hamstring strain put him on the shelf for the first month of 2025. Through his first seven starts, he had a 6.42 ERA, 18% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. In his most recent six outings: 0.70 ERA, 25.5% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate.
The Sox will have to decide if that's small sample noise or Giolito getting on track after years of struggles. From 2019 to 2021, he posted a 3.47 ERA with a 30.7% strikeout rate. But over 2022 and 2023, he had a 4.89 ERA and 25.5% strikeout rate. It would be great if he's back to his old self, but six starts is still a pretty small sample size.
It's a somewhat similar situation for Bello, who missed the first few weeks of the season due to a shoulder strain. Through eight starts, he had a 3.83 ERA, 16.1% strikeout rate and 12.2% walk rate. But in his seven most recent appearances, he has a 2.61 ERA, 19.7% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate.
The options beyond those three are not inspiring. Walker Buehler has a 6.12 ERA on the year. Tanner Houck had an 8.04 ERA before a flexor pronator strain sent him to the injured list. Richard Fitts has some passable numbers but just 12 big league starts under his belt. Hunter Dobbins and Kutter Crawford are done for the year. Kyle Harrison isn't doing especially well in the minors. Patrick Sandoval could be a factor later in the season, but he's still a question mark for now. He had UCL surgery just over a year ago and has yet to begin a rehab assignment.
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I hope Sox don’t trade any of their position players. It’s a “logjam”, but a good one that has helped them win 10 straight. Similarly, their pitching looks strong. Selling low on Duran or Houck, who were AllStars 1 year ago, makes no sense, nor does moving what I think is an underrated hitter in Yoshida if more than half his salary needs to be paid down. Wouldn’t mind a new back-up catcher or 1 more reliever if the cost is low, but really hope Sox mostly stand pat.
Duran has been good enough to warrant a large return but you’re right about houck.
bob – I agree with nearly all you said. Stand pat except upgrade on catcher and reliever. My only concern, can we rely on Buehler or Houck as the #5 pitcher? Seems like they really need one more depth option, if Houck turns it around he could always return to the pen as a long reliever.
Maybe the Sox can trade for Priester or Newcomb?
But really I wouldn’t make any decisions until July 28th at the earliest, let’s see how they do against real competition.
I wouldn’t mind getting a rental starter but definitely don’t think we need to go huge with a Joe Ryan or Freddy Peralta because one of our best trade chips, IMO, is going to come from the major league roster (whether they think that’s Duran or Abreu, seems certain it will be one of them). Using one of those guys to get a stud pitcher is a move you make in the offseason, not in the middle of a playoff race.
If The Password is ready to go in 2026 (and the way he’s hit in the minors this year, I don’t see how he wouldn’t be) then I think that solidifies Abreu as our best trade chip because Garcia profiles as basically a RH version of Abreu. But for the next 3 months we need Abreu’s power in the lineup more than we need a TOR arm.
As far as shoring up the rotation with a passable option for a couple months, maybe somebody like a Gallen who has been a good pitcher historically but is having a bit of a rough year? Maybe a change of scenery could be helpful, but with a lost season for AZ and free agency impending perhaps he could be the type of guy who could be had for a modest price. That way it gives you somebody who you wouldn’t feel bad about giving the ball in a playoff series if he’s pitching well, but you also wouldn’t feel bad about skipping if he isn’t.
Duran will fetch the best return and given his age vs Abreu’s it makes more sense to trade Duran.
Strongly disagree. Duran at his best is an incredible spark plug for an offense. You’re talking about a guy with a hard hit rate over 45% and his speed is game changing – not only does it help him in the field but it makes him a terror as a baserunner. Per Baseball Savant Duran is not only one of the more aggressive baserunners in the league, he is also one of the very best. We do not have anyone like that ready to step in and replace the hole that would be created by trading Jarren Duran. He is exactly the type of player that a team serious about wanting to win should be finding a way to keep, not an excuse to trade.
On the other hand, we do have a prospect knocking on the door who profiles very similarly to Abreu. That prospect is also a right handed batter instead of a lefty, so replacing Abreu with Garcia would also go a long way towards helping even out the lineup’s L/R imbalance. Abreu is still a very nice player, but he is a lot easier for the Red Sox to replace. He on his own being worth less than Duran does not mean most teams wouldn’t still be very happy to get him as one of the key pieces in a blockbuster trade.
Thinking with your heart and not your head. Duran will get the SP to take the RS over the top.
Boston Red Sox……: BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Yankmees….. Right back atcha….. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Favorite cereal …. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BERRY
Pitcher I’d like to acquire: BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BAGE
I have a great story from a Mets fan at Fenway:
Deep into the game, a group of fans started chanting “Yankees suck” in their direction. So they all turned around and chanted “We agree!”
Breslow has done a nice job addressing the bullpen’s need for high velocity adding Alcala and Hicks to go with Chapman. Maybe add another reliever and starting pitching depth is necessary. I’m not going to mention First Base as Romy and Toro have come up clutch when they’ve needed them to and there’s no reason to mess that up
Houck will most likely head to the pen when he gets back. A depth starter would be nice but I wouldn’t break the bank trying to get a number 2 starter in season.
Agreed. Unless it’s a controllable one that they’ll have the next few seasons
Would run with Gonzalez and Toro for this season. In off-season, would teach Anthony first base. Would consider trade of the DH, and keep Paszword and keep outfield intact.
Toro is done. He’s trending down in a big way and back to his career averages.
I loved him in spring training and he sure came through when the Red Sox needed him for a few months.
But things are starting to shake out to mirror what his history has shown. Time to move on from Abraham Toro.
Gary – EXACTLY!!
They make great mowers though….
Rsox – I’d rather have effective relievers than high velocity guys who give up 3 hits and a walk in one inning (Alcala & Hicks).
Toro is fading fast and Romy sucks against RHP, so let’s hope KC can be fixed and play some 1B.
Abreu, Campbell, Casas and Fitts to Pirates for Paul Skenes and Bednar
Lol.
2 words – Get Relievers
Great write up! Thank you!
Would love to see the Sox add a mid-to-top of the rotation pitcher and a rental 1B to take over for Toro. I would hate to say goodbye to one of our excellent outfielders, but at this point I trust Breslow if he finds the right deal. Fingers crossed we can keep our heads above water through this tough post-ASB stretch.
Youk – Breslow is running 50/50 right now as far as trades.
Awful trades as of now:- Sale, Priester, Garcia, Sims
Great trades as of now: – Narvaez, Crochet, Devers (still very early)
Fair enough. I’m super happy with his signings too. Buehler was a miss but hey, it was worth a one-year trial contract; pitching is risky and expensive. I’m starting to trust this guy’s eye for talent.
Youk – Absolutely! And let’s not forget, Breslow has been at it for less than 2 years …. he should get better with experience. And he doesn’t seem to be too rigid, he’s willing to acknowledge mistakes and take corrective action (like the hitting approach, etc).
Get someone good for #4 and let Houck, Buehler, etc. compete for #5.
Casas & Toro to Brewers for Vaughn… not Mo but would fit Fenway…
Greg??? Hippo?? Vaughn who???
olm – Well it ain’t Vaughn Eshelman, that much we know.
Maybe Ricky Wild Thing Vaughn?
Only time I’m commenting on this , this weekend… what we need in a relief help the Cubs have… I’ll do my best to sabotage his appearances, lots of deep dish, Chicago dogs extra peppers( ketchup) Beef sandwich dry… and shots of Malort before every game… next 3-4 series is Big Boy Time!!!( Mmmm big boy)
olm – Abdow’s Big Boy? I haven’t eaten there in a while. It’s a New England thing, how are you familiar with it? LOL
I lived blocks away from one growing up… It was called frelochas(owner my guess) served their hamburgers…( original secret sauce 1000 island dressing)..Big boys also in Michigan … only thing I got going for me is a head of hair like Big Boy…
olm – Wait a minute …. your hair is curved straight up just like Big Boy??
You know how his hair got that way, right?
Didn’t you ever watch Something About Mary????
The Red Sox and Royals would match up nicely as trade partners. The below hypothetical trade would help both sides.
Red Sox trade Durran (or Abreu), Grissom and Kyle Harrison
Royals trade Lugo, Bubic and Erceg
If KC were to deal Bubic/Lugo in a single trade with state of SP demand, the headliner will be way more painful than Duran. They’d get a lot for Bubic alone.
Duran was a top 10 MVP vote getter last year. Even as a fringe All Star as his more likely base case, the Royals get 3.5 years of control for .5 seasons of Lugo and 1.5 of Bubic.
They are also getting a potential 2B in Grissom and a solid starting prospect in Harrison to add to their pitching depth. If they ask for a bit more, you could swap out Harrison for Garcia.
Royals aren’t going to trade two starting pitchers and Duran alone with his cost and control is more valuable than Lugo.