This week's mailbag gets into a qualifying offer for Trent Grisham, the likelihood of the Reds signing Elly De La Cruz long-term, preseason projections consistently whiffing on the Brewers, how a lockout might affect free agency in 2026-27, what it might take to extend Alex Bregman, and much more.
Dmitry asks:
I keep seeing that the Yankees wont re-sign Trent Grisham. What is the downside to a QO? is 22 million for a 3 win CF in his prime on a one year deal really that bad?
Grisham, 29 in November, is on pace for a 2.8 WAR season in about 139 games. He's missed some time on the paternity list and a few games due to a hamstring issue.
Grisham was widely seen as a non-tender candidate in the offseason, but instead accepted a $500K pay cut to land at $5MM on a pre-tender deal. He had an 87 wRC+ from 2022-24 over 1,288 plate appearances. Despite avoiding the IL in 2024, Grisham played in only 76 games for the Yankees, who had an outfield of Alex Verdugo, Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto.
Prior to this year, Grisham was more of a sub-2-WAR backup outfielder or bottom of the order regular who was not considered worthy of a $6MM salary.
The main wart on Grisham's season is that he's only hit like this (126 wRC+) once before, in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. But Grisham has a career-low strikeout rate with career-best power, plus good Statcast metrics. Though he owes some of his success to a huge April, he's still managed a 113 wRC+ since. The Yankees sat Grisham a fair bit against lefties last year, but not this year, and he's been tolerable against them.
Once one of the faster players in baseball, Grisham lost several steps in 2023 and now sits in the 33rd percentile for sprint speed. That might partially explain why the two-time Gold Glover has a negative Outs Above Average mark for the first time in his career. Defensive runs saved shows a similar story.
When it hasn't been Grisham in center field for the Yankees this year, it's been Cody Bellinger. Bellinger figures to take a $5MM buyout over his final $25MM salary for 2026, meaning both outfielders will be free agents. Assuming the Yankees don't want to give Harrison Bader another try, their main free agent alternative would be Cedric Mullins. The trade market could feature Luis Robert Jr. and little else at center.
Internally, Spencer Jones would be the main option if both Bellinger and Grisham depart. Jones, 25 in May, has torched both Double-A and Triple-A pitching this year, dropping his strikeout rate from 33.7% to 26.0% at the higher level.
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As a SD fan, the concept of even considering a a $22 mil (ish) QO for Grish is not even something I can fathom happening.
I’d think he might take $22 mil over 4-5 years with some opt outs at this point in his career.
Grisham is definitely getting the qualifying offer. He’s definitely earned it this year. No question.
I hope NY offers it and I hope he accepts.
Yes agree with you 100%. That would be great!
I find myself wondering what the rest of Yankee nation thinks about a QO for Grish. Usually there are more interactions on here.
Great season? Sure, but is it repeatable? And do the Yankees in their overall $$$ scheme want to pay Grisham a QO+ luxury tax? I’d rather sign him for say 3/$48M than a QO. As Judge ages, they will want to keep more OF depth to get him a breather. Still see Judge heading to 1B at some point…but I’m not signing the checks and I’m not sure I believe his elbow is “fine” which kind of roils the whole thing from an outsider’s perspective..
I am a yankees fan, all the way. I like what I am seeing from grish this year. I say give him a decent contract with opt outs (like “Longtimecoming” said) I think he can be valuable for the next several years. His fielding is STUPENDOUS and his hitting is quite good. Average a little bit lower than the average major leaguer, but has great power and run producing capabilities.
Yankees should be happy with what they are getting in 25 for 5 m but take a look at his 22, 23 and 24 stats for a basis to be veery cautious about TG’s production going forward.
I haven’t checked but the post states his D has declined a lot. He was always at least a solid CF for SD.
Not a bad guy for 4th OF spot but his upside and salary compared to a younger, cheaper, faster bench piece comes into play.
You do make a very good point. I think a 2 year deal for 18 mil ish would be suitable. 3rd year club option
He’s been dealing with a hamstring issue which may attribute to his declined sprint speed and defense. OAA has him at -1 and DRS at -5. Biggest difference this year is a compacted swing leading to more barreled balls and less strikeouts. He should reject the Q.O. if offered.
Lay off the rum Jobu