Zach Eflin made his three-year, $41MM contract look like an absolute bargain in 2023 and ’24. The right-hander produced a 3.54 ERA and 3.62 SIERA over 59 starts in the two most productive seasons of his career. Unfortunately, the final year of that deal has been nothing short of disastrous. He has taken three trips to the injured list, the first with a lat strain and the latter two with back discomfort. On Tuesday, Orioles manager Tony Mansolino announced that Eflin would undergo a lumbar microdiscectomy procedure, ending his season. In and around his three IL stints, the righty stumbled to a 5.93 ERA. His 16.2% strikeout rate was his worst since 2017, while his 40.2% groundball rate was his lowest since his rookie season the year before. Meanwhile, he gave up home runs at the highest rate of his career.
If Eflin had returned to free agency last winter, he could have commanded something like the three-year, $75MM deals that Nathan Eovaldi and Sean Manaea signed. Considering his age (he’s still only 31), perhaps he could have earned even more. Now, he will most likely have to settle for a single-year pillow contract – one that might not even reach eight figures – as he looks to rebuild his value.
Exactly what kind of contract he ultimately signs will depend on his timeline to recover from the lumbar microdiscectomy procedure, which is scheduled for Monday (per Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner). Eflin told reporters (including Allentuck) that he’s hopeful he can have a relatively normal offseason after 12 weeks; that timeline would have him resuming his regular offseason activities right around the GM Meetings. However, he acknowledged that recovery from this particular procedure can take anywhere from four to eight months. An eight-month recovery would put his return sometime in mid-April.
Regardless of when exactly he’s back to full strength, whichever team signs Eflin will be taking a risk on an injury-prone starter. The payoff could be substantial; at his best, Eflin is the kind of pitcher who can start game two of a playoff series, like he did for the Rays in 2023 and the Orioles in 2024. On the other hand, the downside is just as plain to see: He could have another season like this one.
Could the Orioles be the team that takes that risk? It feels unlikely. They could certainly use the help in their starting rotation, but they already have three injured starters they’re hoping will contribute significantly in 2026: Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, and Tyler Wells, as well as swingman Albert Suárez. If they’re going to add a starter, it would make sense for GM Mike Elias to make a safer choice. That said, if the Orioles do reach out, it seems like Eflin would be interested in a reunion.
“Absolutely,” Eflin replied when asked if he could see himself back in Baltimore for 2026 (per Allentuck). It’s not uncommon for a pending free agent to express loose, noncommittal interest in re-signing with his current team. Yet, Eflin’s language was direct, and the reporters he spoke to conveyed the impression that he genuinely hopes to return. It would be hard to blame him if he were ready to move on after such a disappointing season for both himself and his team, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Says Eflin, “I told pretty much everyone that we’ve had a conversation about that, I told them I love this place and I’d love to be here.”
You can never have too much pitching, the Orioles should have learned that by now and definitely after this season. There would be nothing wrong with pursuing a one year incentive type agreement with Eflin, as long as it is not the only deal and done simply from a depth standpoint. Based on this year and his age, he should fall into the same category as Greyson – the mindset that anything you get from them is considered a bonus and it shouldn’t be the main acquisition. They need to go after a front of the rotation type arm as well. It’s a long season and contending teams need depth in addition to the major additions. Injuries happen and if Eflin or Greyson wind up being impact contributors, well that’s a good problem to have but they shouldn’t be the only horses they put their money on!
They may have found their front of the rotation arm in Rogers based on his last 6 games. Dude is dealing it, but the run support is atrocious.
Breslow on line 1.
this has Red Sox written all over it. Replace Buehler’s roll the dice, bet on yourself dud of a contract (as it has been all season- last night no exception) with another one in Eflin. ugh.
Buehler just needs a day off…
Wade-
My best friend’s sister’s boyfriend’s brother’s girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who’s going with the girl who saw Ferris pass out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it’s pretty serious.
Poor Ferris
Wells will be in the bullpen because they need him there and he excelled there last time he was healthy.
Depends. Wells is throwing the ball well in the minors right now. If he’s able to ramp up and make 2-3 good big league starts he may have an outside chance of cracking the rotation.
Bullpen is the safer play for his oft injured arm though.
I am all for it…i think the risk is worth it …i don’t really like what is out there..ie Ranger Suarez…etc
See how things shake down first obviously…but if things go well Eflin is worth the risk
Motivated #2-3 on an affordable 1 year contract. Yes please. Definitely need as much depth as possible.
i like this and like the possibility of him returning to form after his back injury. he’s prob more like a #4 or at best a #3 at this point but I’ll def take it as we have seen last year what he can bring when he is healthy.
I especially love the “definitely… I love it here” comments. might be window dressing but after this season, I’m grasping at any positivity that I can get.
Dont’t hate that at all. Especially since the FO doesn’t spend money they will be looking at cheap options anyway. Eflin has been good up until this nightmare year no reason to think he can’t bounce back
He fits the Dodgers perfectly.
A one year deal with a low base but potential to earn much more with incentives would be fine. Low risk for Orioles, high upside for Eflin if he hit an IP or # starts and/or ERA mark (and team would benefit too).
Orioles can only maybe count on Bradish. Rodriguez is made out of tissue paper and I am hoping he can get back and help the bullpen. Wells has never topped 110 IP in any season in his life – he’s a bullpen piece/spot starter. Suarez is a question mark.
Make winter plans on trying to get 2-3 high level starters and count anyone other than Bradish returning to the rotation as a good problem to have.
Trevor Rogers is pitching really well right now. 9 straight starts with 2 or less runs allowed. He is a legitimate option for 2026 for the Orioles.
Susannah – sorry, what I left out of this post is I assume Rogers and Kremer will be back to compete for spots in 2026. Rogers won’t continue to carry a 1.5 ERA but if he can keep the ball on the ground when things correct he might have a 3/4 ceiling. Kremer (being hot and cold) is a fine #5 option on a competitive rotation. That puts Young and Povich as backup options.
I’d like to see where Rogers lands over a full season of starts.
Assuming they actually get some starting pitchers, that means they’d need at least 2 if Rogers is the 4 and Kremer is the 5 (and Bradish is one of the 3 others)
I’m with gr81t2 I don’t see them actually spending the $. I see them banking on Bradish to come back 100%, Wells to somehow become the full time starting pitcher he’s never been, Rogers, Kremer, Povich and Young. That wouldn’t be good or deep enough.
I always wonder why people keep saying Kremer being #5. His WAR for the past 4 years is 6.2 with WHIP of around 1.25 and averaging 140 innings. How many pitchers have that?
Susannah – inconsistency holds him back IMO. ERA is down to 4.17 which is still below league average (he’s close now).
In 24 starts this year he has 6 or 7 starts where he’s really good, like 8 IP/1 ER/5 hits/1 walk vs Seattle on 8/12 or 7 shutout IP versus Marlins on 7/11.
But he also has 9 – primarily in April and May – that were absolutely terrible. Like 4-5 IP, 4+ runs allowed minimum…some worse. That’s too many.
In his last 12 starts he’s been what I’d say is #3 or #4 overall: 73 IP/3.68 ERA/3.49 FIP, 65K, 18 BB. There are 2 clunkers mixed in there. Prior to that though, he’d only had 2 really good starts in his first 12 and ERA was still up at 5. That’s not what I would want even as a #5 when taken as a whole.
He’s also at 140 IP and has one other season when he went 172 IP (2023). Overall despite the start to start inconsistency he’s been pretty much the same guy from 2023-2025…a bit lower FIP and walk rate this year.
If he put up his 2022#’s (2.7 WAR, 3.23 ERA, 3.8 FIP, 121 ERA+) that’s a #3 starter, but he hasn’t.
For your question, looking at numbers in AL East and compare to 2023-25 Kremer:
TOR – he’d be neck and neck with Bassitt as #5.
BOS – he’s close, but Dobbins their (#4) a bit better but Kremer healthier
NYY – he’s very similar to Warren (also Warren is hot and cold like Kremer). Warren is #4 but should be #5 given Yarborough out
TB – Probably a #4 here above Bradley or Baz.
I’d love Toronto or New York’s rotation – with the Orioles offense plus a TOR/NYY rotation… and competent coaching/conditioning…that’s easily a 90+ win team, so he’d be a #5. If he would just be more consistent – which I don’t think will ever happen – he puts up stretches where he’s a #3/#4
Yes yes and yes. But will Elias spend money? Probably not even though owner said last offseason “no restrictions on payroll”.
Trevor Rogers will not be a free agent until the end of 2026. The Orioles should try to extend him.
Why not, his acting career has all but dried up. Quite talented thou ! Tell jokes, sings dances and has a 95 mph heater
He could very well be the Red Sox next reclamation project. They almost signed him last time he was a free agent, and we all know how they love their one year deals with SPs.
Seriously? A (lost) year after getting burned by injured starters, Elias is going to stick his neck into a noose by signing more injury prone starters? Physical law of the universe is that top starters NEVER sign with small market teams so count on Elias to sign the two healthiest guys from the 2nd / 3rd tier.