Padres right-hander Griffin Canning is still recovering from last year’s ruptured left Achilles tendon and will start the 2026 season on the injured list. He is already throwing just fine but isn’t yet ready to field his position. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune says that a return in late April is possible but that May or June would be more likely.
Canning suffered his injury in June of last year with the Mets, with no specific timeline provided for his recovery. Similar injuries to other players have often led to absences of around a year. It was reported in January that Canning could be ready “around” Opening Day but that may have been a bit optimistic.
Even with the health question marks, the Padres felt comfortable giving Canning a major league deal with a $2.5MM guarantee, plus some potential incentives. He did look fairly sharp with the Mets last year, before the injury. Compared to his time with the Angels, he threw more cutters and sliders, with fewer four-seamers and knuckle curves.
He made 16 starts and logged 76 1/3 innings, allowing 3.77 earned runs per nine. His 21.3% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate were a bit worse than average but he generated grounders on 50.9% of balls in play. That figure was well above average and also far better than anything he had done previously, as he was actually more of a fly ball guy with the Halos.
The Padres will hope that he can carry some of that over into 2026, though they will have to wait for Canning to get healthy first. Michael King, Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta are the clear top three in the rotation. That leaves at least two open spots to start the year. The Padres also have some openness to a six-man rotation, which would mean jobs for three other starters.
Matt Waldron is also going to start the season on the IL after recently requiring a procedure to address a hemorrhoid. Yu Darvish will miss the entire 2026 season due to elbow surgery. Randy Vásquez and Germán Márquez are on the roster and are likely the favorites for the final two rotation spots. JP Sears is also on the roster but has options, so he will likely end up sent to Triple-A. Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie are in camp as non-roster invitees.
The Opening Day rotation will likely be temporary, with Canning set to take a spot when he returns. The decision of how to make room for Canning will depend on the health and performance of the other arms in the interim. Waldron will seemingly be back in the mix before Canning but he is out of options and posted a 7.71 ERA last year, so his return could lead to a tough decision for the Padres.
Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images
We need designated fielders. It’s absurd that our valuable arms can’t pitch because of limiting factors like this or they got injured playing defense.
#UniversalDF
Acee once again spouting BS. Canning is on pace for a late April, early May return. He was doing PFP on the backfields today.
Just some related info. Musgrove sat 94-95 on his 4 seam today. In 2024 he was 92.9 and in 2023 he was at 93.0. That is extremely encouraging.
Marquez was sat 95-96 in his start. Another very encouraging sign. His velocity has not been that high since 2020.
Vasquez looked extremely good and efficient. Just 42 pitches for 4 IP and 15 of 32 strikes were on swings. 9 of those were whiffs.
None of the position players in the game for the Padres are expected to make the OD roster.