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Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/21/25

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The deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is this afternoon at 4pm CT. Throughout the day, we’ll surely see a handful of arb-eligible players agree to terms with their clubs to avoid a hearing.

These so-called “pre-tender deals” usually, although not always, involve players who were borderline non-tender candidates. Rather than run the risk of being cut loose, they can look to sign in the lead-up to the deadline. Those salaries often come in a little below projections, since these players tend to have less leverage because of the uncertainty about whether they’ll be offered a contract at all.

Under the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement, players who sign to avoid an arbitration hearing are guaranteed full termination pay. That’s a change from prior CBAs, when teams could release an arb-eligible player before the season began and would only owe a prorated portion of the contract. This was done to incentivize teams and players to get deals done without going to a hearing.

All salary projections in this post come via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. This post will be updated throughout the day as deals are announced and/or reported. Salary figures are from The Associated Press unless otherwise noted.

Photo courtesy of William Liang, Imagn Images

MLBTR Podcast: A Conversation With Pirates GM Ben Cherington — Also The O’s, Zack Wheeler, And The Rangers

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Pirates general manager Ben Cherington to discuss…

  • What attracted Cherington to a smaller market like Pittsburgh (2:40)
  • Why have the Pirates been so much better at developing pitching than hitting? (5:10)
  • The choice of picking Paul Skenes first overall in 2023 (9:05)
  • The Pirates not having signed a free agent to a multi-year deal in many years (13:45)
  • Is there a sense of urgency for the Pirates to make something happen in the near future? (16:20)
  • The balance of subtracting pitching to add hitting (18:45)
  • What percentage of rumors that make it to the public are based in fact? (22:30)

Plus, Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors joins the show to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images

Orioles Select Matt Bowman

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The Orioles selected the contract of right-handed reliever Matt Bowman and placed righty Brandon Young on the 15-day injured list due to a strained left hamstring, the team announced. Right-hander Felix Bautista, who recently underwent shoulder surgery, was moved from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

It’s the third big league stint of the season with the Orioles for Bowman. The 34-year-old journeyman has previously pitched 23 1/3 innings with Baltimore in 2025, recording a 5.79 earned run average while striking out 15.7% of his opponents against a 5.6% walk rate. The O’s have designated him for assignment multiple times this season, but he’s accepted outright assignments to Triple-A Norfolk after clearing waivers despite having the right to reject in favor of free agency.

Bowman has been solid in Norfolk, tossing 26 1/3 innings for the Tides and posting a 4.10 ERA. He’s set down 21.8% of his opponents there on strikes and notched a 5.5% walk rate that mirrors his strong mark in the majors. The former 13th-rounder has now pitched in parts of seven big league seasons with seven different teams and worked to a 4.32 ERA in 239 1/3 innings.

It’s not yet clear whether Young, a 27-year-old rookie, will make it back to the big leagues this season. With only five weeks left on the schedule, virtually any injury has the possibility of ending a player’s season. He’s pitched to a 6.24 ERA in his first 57 2/3 innings as a big leaguer. As for Bautista, his move to the 60-day IL is a pure formality. The shoulder procedure comes with an estimated 12-month recovery, so he was always going to be moved to the 60-day IL the first time the O’s needed to open up a 40-man spot.

Félix Bautista Undergoes Shoulder Surgery, Expected To Miss 12 Months

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The Orioles announced today that right-hander Félix Bautista has undergone surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff and torn labrum in his right shoulder. He is expected to miss the next 12 months. Jake Rill of MLB.com was among those to relay the news.

The news is obviously brutal for the O’s and Bautista. He just missed the entire 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He got back on the mound this year and showed some flashes of his old self. However, he’s now going to miss the remainder of the 2025 season and a huge chunk of 2026 as well. Given the estimated timeline, any kind of setback could lead to him missing another entire season.

Prior to the injury setbacks, he had established himself as one of the most dominant relievers in the game. Over the 2022 and 2023 campaigns, he gave the O’s 126 2/3 innings with a tiny 1.85 earned run average. His 10% walk rate was a bit on the high side and his 39.9% ground ball rate wasn’t special but he punched out a massive 40.4% of batters faced.

As mentioned, he showed some hints of that form in 2025, though also with some rust. He logged 34 2/3 innings this year with a 2.60 ERA. His 35.2% strikeout rate was technically a drop-off but still a great figure. Meanwhile, his grounder rate jumped to 50.7%. On the worrying side, his walk rate spiked to 16.2%.

Perhaps he would have continued refining things as he got more innings and shook off the rust, but that won’t happen now. He landed on the 15-day IL in July due to shoulder discomfort. It was announced by the team in August that his injury was “significant” and that he wouldn’t be coming back this year. Today’s news provides more clarity on how dire the situation is. It’s possible that Bautista eventually throws less than 40 innings for the 2024-26 stretch. If he returns late next year, he could push a bit beyond that number, but likely not by much.

Bautista is controllable through 2027. He is making just $1MM this year. He will be due a raise in arbitration for 2026 and 2027 but the missed time cuts into his ability to substantially increase his salary. Given his ceiling, the O’s will surely tender him a contract with the hope of him contributing late in 2026 and/or for the entire 2027 campaign.

For the O’s, it’s the latest kick to the nuts in a season that has seen them pummeled by injuries. They came into the year knowing that Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells would be rehabbing from last year’s surgeries, but then they have also seen guys like Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Andrew Kittredge, Albert Suárez and others miss significant time. On the position player side, Tyler O’Neill, Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser, Ryan Mountcastle and others missed chunks of time.

Those injuries helped push the O’s down in the standings. Though they came into the year with clear postseason aspirations, they wound up deadline sellers. Cedric Mullins, Kittredge, Gregory Soto, Seranthony Domínguez, Bryan Baker, Charlie Morton, Ramón Urías, Ramón Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn were all flipped prior to the deadline.

The club is now playing out the string on the 2025 season, so the Bautista injury is fairly moot for the short term. But his extended timeline obviously hurts for 2026. As mentioned, the O’s already flipped four relievers last month, putting a big dent in the bullpen. Bautista is an even bigger loss.

Though they sold at the deadline, it’s assumed that the club intends to rebound and compete again in 2026, as they have a young and exciting core to build around. Presumably, the Orioles already planned on making a few bullpen moves in the coming offseason. This news should only enhance the need.

For Bautista personally, it’s another delay in him unlocking a notable paycheck. The late bloomer didn’t crack the big leagues until he was in his age-27 season. Despite his excellent results, he’s now 30 and hasn’t made more than $1MM in a season, which is barely above the league minimum. The two lengthy surgery absences will dampen his earning power in arbitration. He’s not slated to reach free agency until after his age-32 campaign. It’s possible he’s healthy by that point but the injury track record will be still be noted by clubs.

Photo courtesy of Jonathan Dyer, Imagn Images

Felix Bautista, Zach Eflin Done For The Season

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Orioles closer Felix Bautista and starter Zach Eflin are done for the remainder of the season, interim manager Tony Mansolino announced to the team’s beat Tuesday (link via Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun). Eflin is undergoing a lumbar microdiscectomy procedure, and the news on Bautista is even more ominous. Mansolino revealed that his closer, who was originally placed on the IL with shoulder inflammation on July 24, has sustained a “significant shoulder injury.” The team is still in the process of formalizing a diagnosis and treatment plan. He has another appointment to evaluate the injury later this week.

It’s a brutal development for the 30-year-old Bautista, who’s in his first season back after missing the 2024 campaign due to Tommy John surgery. He’s posted excellent results, logging 34 2/3 innings of 2.60 ERA ball, though there have been some modest red flags in his broader profile. Bautista averaged 99.5 mph on his four-seamer before surgery but has scrapped that pitch entirely in favor of a sinker that’s sitting more than two miles per hour shy of that prior velo mark (97.2 mph average). Meanwhile, his already high 11% walk rate from 2023 has exploded to 16.2% in his return campaign.

The obvious hope is that Bautista can avoid undergoing a second major surgery. To be expressly clear, Mansolino did not suggest that shoulder surgery is presently being considered, though any time a team official describes a “significant” injury for a pitcher and second opinions are being sought, that type of fear is natural. Ideally, Bautista could take the remainder of the regular season and the offseason to rest and rehab ahead of the 2026 campaign, but the outlook will remain uncertain while the O’s gather additional opinions.

The Orioles control Bautista through the 2027 season. He’ll finish out the current season with exactly four years of major league service time. Bautista is earning $1MM this year and will be owed a raise in arbitration. Even if the injury impacts his availability for Opening Day 2026, the O’s are still all but assured to tender him a contract, given that he’d be affordably priced for the 2027 season as well.

As for Eflin, the forthcoming back surgery ends what’s been a nightmare season for the talented righty. The 31-year-old is in the final season of a three-year, $40MM contract originally signed with the Rays. He pitched to a 3.54 ERA in 353 innings over the first two seasons of the pact but has only made it to the mound 14 times this year due to back and lat injuries. He’s been rocked for a 5.93 ERA in 71 1/3 innings when healthy enough to pitch — his worst production since an 11-start run with the Phillies in 2017, before he’d established himself as a credible big league starter.

Eflin is slated to reach free agency for the second time in his career at season’s end. There’s no immediate timetable for his recovery, but ending a dismal season with a lower back surgery isn’t the way any free agent wants to head back to the open market. He’ll be relatively young for a second-time free agent who’s already signed one multi-year deal, with his 32nd birthday in April, but Eflin seems likely to be in line for a short-term deal that’ll demonstrate his health and allow him to get back to the market next winter.

Orioles Place Félix Bautista On Injured List Due To Shoulder Discomfort

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The Orioles announced Thursday that closer Félix Bautista has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to right shoulder discomfort. Righty Kade Strowd has been recalled from Triple-A Norfolk to take his spot on the active roster.

Bautista, 30, is in his first season back on the mound after missing the 2024 campaign due to Tommy John surgery. He has, in many ways, picked up where he left off pre-injury and reclaimed his status as a high-end reliever. He’s tossed 34 2/3 innings, saved 19 games and logged a 2.60 ERA with a gaudy 35.2% strikeout rate.

Bautista’s command, however, isn’t as sharp as it was prior to surgery. He’s walked 16.2% of his opponents this year — way up from the 10% mark he recorded in 2022-23. Bautista has also changed up his pitch selection, scrapping his four-seamer in favor of a sinker. That’s led to an uptick in grounders (50.7% in 2025 compared to 39.9% in 2022-23) but fewer whiffs. Impressive as that 35.2% strikeout rate is, it pales in comparison to the superhuman 46.4% rate he posted in 2023. Bautista’s sinker, notably, is sitting 97.2 mph — a good bit shy of the 99.3 mph he averaged on his four-seamer prior to surgery.

The Orioles control Bautista via arbitration for another two seasons beyond the current one. He’s come up in trade rumblings over the past month, but not because the Orioles have been shopping him. Contending clubs around the league have long since zeroed in on the Orioles as a club that will function as a seller on the summer market and have hoped to pry Bautista loose. The O’s have reportedly listened out of due diligence, but general manager Mike Elias has been clear that he has every intention of competing in 2026. Bautista will play a prominent role in that effort. Elias has, accordingly, been focused primarily on discussing players who are “towards the end of their contracts,” as he put it last week.

Whatever slim chance there was of a team making an overwhelming offer to convince the O’s to part with Bautista was dashed with today’s placement on the injured list. Contending clubs would almost certainly have balked at the exorbitant asking price even for a healthy Bautista. Now that there’s uncertainty regarding the health of his shoulder, it’ll be next to impossible for the O’s to find someone willing to meet whatever sky-high price they’d set.

Bautista is set for an MRI to determine the extent of the discomfort, which arose yesterday while he was getting loose in the bullpen, interim manager Tony Mansolino told the Orioles’ beat (link via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner). Mansolino added that he’s not yet sure who will step into closing duties while Bautista is sidelined. Right-hander Seranthony Dominguez and left-hander Gregory Soto have been next in the pecking order in terms of high-leverage work for the Orioles, but they’re both impending free agents who will likely be traded within the next week. Hard-throwing Yennier Cano has plenty of experience in high-leverage spots but is in the midst of an uneven season that saw him optioned to Triple-A for a bit earlier this summer.

Elias: Orioles’ Trade Talks Focused On Players “Towards The End Of Their Contracts”

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The Orioles managed to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Rays earlier today but are still 10 games under .500 with a -99 run differential. They’re 13.5 games out of first place in the American League East and 8.5 games back of an AL Wild Card spot — with seven teams they’d need to leapfrog to get there. They already traded righty Bryan Baker to the Rays earlier in the month, and general manager Mike Elias suggested in an interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that further players are likely to be shipped out. The GM made clear, however, that he’s focused on trading short-term pieces and not players who are under club control well beyond the current season.

“When we’re at this point in the standings and 11 days away from the trade deadline, we’ve got to be realistic about our situation,” Elias said. “The conversations I’m having right now are more oriented toward what’s out there for some of our available major league players. We’re not blowing up the team. We think we’re going to be very good again in 2026 and have that intention. We’re not interested in changing the foundation of the team, but to the degree that we have players that interest other clubs, who are coming towards the end of their contracts, we’ve got to listen to that. That’s what we’re spending our time on now.”

Whether it’s Elias who has an aversion to long-term contracts or the two ownership groups under which he’s worked — the Angelos family sold the Orioles to a group led by David Rubenstein prior to the 2024 season — the Orioles don’t have many players signed long-term. Elias has only signed one free agent (Tyler O’Neill) to a multi-year contract and has not brokered extensions with any of the team’s young core. They have a very appealing group of young players who are still controlled via arbitration, but Baltimore’s proclivity for one-year contracts gives them plenty of players to market in the next couple weeks.

First baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn, center fielder Cedric Mullins and corner outfielder Ramon Laureano are all in their final guaranteed seasons in Baltimore. (Laureano does have a reasonable $6.5MM club option for 2026). Catcher Gary Sanchez is also on a one-year deal, although he’s likely out until September due to a sprained posterior cruciate ligament in his right knee.

On the pitching side of things, starters Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano are all free agents at season’s end, as are relievers Gregory Soto and Seranthony Dominguez. Right-hander Andrew Kittredge, like Laureano, is on a one-year deal with a club option for the 2026 season. His is valued at $9MM.

O’Hearn, earning $8MM this season, is hitting .282/.378/.458 with a dozen homers. He’d be one of the best rental bats on the market. Mullins is earning $8.725MM and hitting just .218/.300/.4o5 with 13 homers and 14 steals, but he’s one of very few center field options who could be available. The resurgent Laureano is having a career-best year at the plate, hitting .276/.340/.498 through 247 plate appearances while earning just a $4MM salary.

Eflin has been out for nearly a month due to a back injury, which presumably contributed to him surrendering 17 runs in his final nine innings before being placed on the injured list. That ugly stretch ballooned his ERA all the way to 5.95, but he had a 4.08 mark prior to that stretch and is coming off a 2023-24 run in which he tossed 343 innings with a 3.54 ERA and terrific strikeout/walk rates. He’s making $18MM this season. Eflin has posted a 1.50 ERA in three minor league rehab starts, and he told Jake Rill of MLB.com yesterday that he feels like he’s ready to rejoin the rotation.

Morton’s struggles earlier this season were in many ways emblematic of the team’s struggles as a whole. He’s righted the ship after being dropped to the bullpen for a few weeks, though. While the 41-year-old righty is still sporting a grisly 5.58 ERA, he has a 3.47 mark in his past 47 innings. Morton was trounced for seven runs in his most recent outing versus Tampa Bay, but he’d pitched 51 2/3 innings of 2.61 ERA ball prior to that. Even with the ugly last start, he looks largely back on track, though his $15MM salary is another impediment.

Sugano, 35, is in his first big league season. A longtime star in Japan’s NPB, his year has been the inverse of Morton’s: a terrific start followed by an extended rough patch. Sugano carried a 3.04 ERA into June despite possessing one of the lowest strikeout rates in the sport (14.2%), but his lack of missed bats has caught up to him. He has a 7.94 ERA and has been torched for seven home runs over his past six starts (28 1/3 innings). He’s on a $13MM salary.

The left-handed Soto and right-handed Dominguez both miss plenty of bats and have shaky command, although Soto has his walk rate down to a more passable 10.1% this year. Both average better than 97 mph on their heaters, and their ERAs (3.67 for Soto, 3.72 for Dominguez) are nearly identical. Fielding-independent metrics grade them similarly as well, pegging them both in the mid-3.00s. Soto is making $5.35MM to Dominguez’s $8MM. The 35-year-old Kittredge missed the first two months of the season due to a knee procedure he required during spring training but has been solid since returning: 3.86 ERA, 22.9% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate.

It’s not clear from Elias’ comments whether the Orioles will at least entertain offers on players controlled beyond the current season. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported last week that Elias has at least heard out other teams who’ve called on lefty Trevor Rogers and closer Felix Bautista, but that could be mere due diligence. Bautista, controlled two more seasons via arbitration, would be a particular shock if moved. The Dodgers are among the teams who’ve called, but a deal feels decidedly unlikely.

The O’s have some buy-low bats, but it’s hard to imagine anyone taking on even a portion of O’Neill’s contract when he’s signed through 2027 and hitting just .182/.270/.327. Ryan Mountcastle is an interesting buy-low option, but he hit just .246/.280/.348 before a hamstring tear sent him to the 60-day IL. He’ll begin a rehab assignment soon and could be a non-tender candidate with a poor finish, so perhaps there’s more willingness to listen there. Baltimore’s core seems unlikely to be available in any capacity, however. It’d be a true stunner if any of Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser or Jackson Holliday wound up being seriously discussed.

Dodgers Pursuing High-End Bullpen Upgrades

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The Dodgers are known to be in the market for bullpen help after injuries to Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech and Blake Treinen have thinned their relief corps. They’re focused on several of the market’s most high-profile names, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who reports that L.A. has inquired on Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase, Pirates closer David Bednar, Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley and Orioles closer Felix Bautista (in addition to previously reported interest in Minnesota’s Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax).

Los Angeles was active on the relief market over the winter, signing Tanner Scott to a four-year deal, Treinen to a two-year contract and Kirby Yates to a one-year pact. Neither Scott (4.00 ERA) nor Yates (4.08) have performed up to expectations, however, and Yates has also missed some time due to a hamstring strain (though he’s been healthy for the past month and a half). Dodgers relievers rank 24th in the majors with a 4.38 earned run average, and they’re at an ugly 5.28 mark over the past month.

Of the names listed, Bednar is the likeliest to change hands. The Pirates, in last place in the NL Central, were swept by the White Sox this weekend and are surefire sellers. Bednar is earning $5.9MM this year and is owed one final raise in arbitration this winter before becoming a free agent in the 2026-27 offseason. The 30-year-old struggled through a down season in 2024 and pitched poorly enough early in 2025 to be optioned to Triple-A; he’s been in vintage form since returning from a brief two-week demotion.

Over his past 31 innings, Bednar boasts a 1.74 ERA with a massive 36.4% strikeout rate against a 5.8% walk rate. He’s currently in a 17 1/3-inning streak without allowing an earned run — his last earned run was on May 24 — and has posted a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio in that time. Pirates ownership has reportedly nixed some trade talks on Bednar, a Pittsburgh native, in the past. That’s not expected to be the case this time around.

Helsley has a good chance of moving as well. The Cardinals dropped their first two games coming out of the All-Star break and are three back in the NL Wild Card chase. They’ve outperformed all expectations this season after an offseason of inactivity, but they entered the season expecting this to be a transition year as their baseball operations staff turns over. If the Cards win several games in a row and nudge further up the standings, they could wind up hanging onto Helsley, whom Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently highlighted as a potential qualifying offer candidate. Nightengale writes that the Cards don’t plan on making a QO to Helsley, though that could simply indicate there are differing opinions within the front office on whether that’d be prudent.

Helsley, 31, certainly makes sense as a potential QO candidate. He’s been among the best relievers in the National League over the past four seasons, working to a combined 2.06 ERA with 101 saves. This year’s numbers have dipped a bit. He’s sitting on a 3.27 ERA with a 24.8% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate. It’s still  a strong performance overall, but not up to the lofty standards he’d set from 2022-24. He’ll still command sizable interest — Nightengale writes that five contenders have been in touch with the Cardinals about him — and should be able to net the Cardinals greater value  (and certainly more MLB-ready talent) than they’d net with a compensatory draft pick if Helsley rejected his QO and signed elsewhere.

The other relievers highlighted are less likely to be traded. Cleveland is reportedly listening on Clase and teammate Cade Smith, but both players will have exorbitant asking prices. Clase is signed cheaply through 2026 and has a pair of affordable club options. Bautista is arbitration-eligible in 2026 and 2027, and the Orioles are far likelier to trade short-term rentals than players controlled multiple years beyond the current season. Both Duran and Jax are controlled through 2027 as well, and the Twins are still on the fringes of the AL Wild Card race as well.

Orioles Have Listened To Offers On Trevor Rogers, Felix Bautista

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The Orioles have been at least listening to offers on both left-hander Trevor Rogers and closer Felix Bautista, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. A trade of either player is considered unlikely, though. Both are controlled beyond the 2025 season. Rogers is arbitration-eligible through 2026. Bautista is arb-eligible through 2027. SNY’s Andy Martino reported last week that rival clubs who’ve talked to the Orioles don’t expect Bautista to be moved.

That Rogers would even have appeal as anything more than a pure sell-low candidate is a welcome development for the Orioles. The former Rookie of the Year runner-up pitched poorly enough following last year’s acquisition from Miami that he was optioned to Triple-A Norfolk. Rogers then suffered a subluxation of his knee in January and opened the season with a six-week stay on the injured list. He was optioned again once ready for reinstatement and posted a 5.51 ERA in 32 2/3 minor league frames.

Rogers was still recalled out of necessity on May 24, and he’s been an unexpected boon to a struggling Baltimore rotation. The 27-year-old southpaw has made six starts since that recall and turned in a pristine 1.53 earned run average. His 93.5 mph average fastball isn’t quite back up to the 94.6 mph peak he enjoyed before a series of back, lat and biceps injuries, but it’s up considerably from last season’s 91.6 mph average.

There are reasons to be quite skeptical of Rogers’ success, however. He’s sitting on a .200 average on balls in play despite yielding an ugly 50.5% hard-hit rate in the majors this year. Only one of the 33 fly-balls he’s allowed has become a home run (3%) — far lower than his 10.2% career mark and 2025’s 11.4% league average. Similarly, his 84% strand rate trounces the 72.7% league average and Rogers’ own career mark of 71%. There’s some very likely regression in store in all those areas, though a 3.71 SIERA suggests that Rogers has still been a genuinely improved pitcher this season.

On the one hand, the Orioles need long-term help in the rotation. Charlie Morton, Zach Eflin and Tomoyuki Sugano are free agents at season’s end. Grayson Rodriguez hasn’t pitched this season due to triceps and elbow troubles. Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells are both on the mend from UCL surgery. They’re expected back later this summer, but it’s hardly a given that they’ll recapture their pre-injury form. Former top prospects Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott have both struggled in 2025 —  the former in the majors and the latter in Triple-A. Povich is currently on the shelf due to a hip injury.

On the other hand, Rogers is only controlled one more season and clearly saw his stock plummet in his first six months with the club. If he’s rebuilt some trade value, there’s an argument to be made for capitalizing on it and bringing back some more controllable talent. Even six weeks ago, the idea of Rogers having trade value of note would’ve seemed far-fetched. He’s certainly not as good as his sub-2.00 ERA would suggest, but on a thin market for pitching, his restored velocity and improved results could hold interest — particularly given that extra season of control and a very affordable $2.6MM salary.

Turning to Bautista, a trade of the former All-Star closer seems far less likely. The asking price, certainly, would be considerably higher. The electric 30-year-old righty is earning just $1MM this season and has two arbitration years remaining. He’s returned from late-2023 Tommy John surgery to pitch 33 2/3 innings of 2.41 ERA ball and collect 18 saves. Bautista’s 35.6% strikeout rate isn’t close to the superhuman 46.4% mark he recorded in 2023 but is excellent nevertheless. His 14.8% walk rate is also fairly alarming.

That said, both Bautista’s strikeout and walk rates are trending in the right direction. Dating back to the beginning of June, he’s fanned 44.4% of his opponents against an 11.1% walk rate — near-mirror images of his 2023 levels. Bautista is now favoring a new 97.5 mph sinker over the 99.3 mph four-seamer he used as his primary offering in ’23. The velocity isn’t as strong, but he’s seen his grounder rate climb from 35.7% to a hearty 50.7%.

Bautista is an elite relief arm with several metrics trending in the right direction and multiple years of affordable club control. That’s the sort of asset that every contending club would want. His affordable salary both makes him more plausible for budget-conscious contenders and carries extra appeal for the top luxury-paying clubs that don’t want to pay a 110% tax on a pricey reliever’s average annual salary.

The general consensus around the Orioles is that they’re unlikely to move anyone who’s controlled beyond the current season. The O’s have played better baseball since a dreadful start to the season but look to have dug too deep a hole to climb back into contention in the next two weeks. They’re nine games under .500 — 11.5 back from the division lead and 7.5 back of a Wild Card spot (with seven teams to leapfrog). They open the second half with a a seven-game road trip (three in Tampa and four in Cleveland) and have played at a 21-27 clip on the road (.437) versus a 22-25 clip at home (.468).

It’s far likelier that veterans like Morton, Eflin, Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto — all free agents at season’s end — change hands. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Rogers suddenly felt a bit like found money and GM Mike Elias looked to capitalize. A trade of Bautista would come as a shock, but it’s at least of some modest note that the Baltimore front office is willing to hear out interested clubs and give them a chance to put forth an overwhelming offer.

Which Other Relievers Might The Orioles Shop?

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The Orioles and Rays lined up a mid-July trade on Thursday morning. Baltimore sent setup man Bryan Baker to Tampa Bay for the 37th pick in the draft. That was spurred by the calendar — with the draft on Sunday, the O’s didn’t have time to waste to finalize the deal — but could be the first in a few bullpen trades for Baltimore.

SNY’s Andy Martino writes that rival teams do not expect the Orioles to trade star closer Félix Bautista. The big righty is cheaply controllable via arbitration for the next two seasons. Baker was also controllable, but dealing Bautista would be a much more significant hit to the 2026 bullpen. Bautista’s command was wobbly early in the season as he returned from Tommy John surgery. He has been utterly dominant over the past six weeks, allowing only one run with 24 strikeouts and six walks in 15 innings dating back to the beginning of June.

Even if the Orioles hold Bautista, they have a few relievers who should be available. Martino suggested the O’s will soon seriously consider offers on righties Andrew Kittredge and Seranthony Domínguez and on southpaw Gregory Soto. All three are short-term bullpen pieces. The Orioles remain eight games under .500 despite sweeping a doubleheader against the Mets on Thursday. Fielding offers on rental and/or veteran relievers makes sense.

Seranthony Domínguez ($8MM salary, impending free agent)

Baltimore acquired Domínguez from the Phillies at last summer’s deadline. While the 6’1″ righty had been Philadelphia’s closer earlier in his career, he’d fallen out of favor because of scattershot control. Domínguez struggled to keep the ball in the park after the trade, yet the Orioles exercised an $8MM option to keep him.

That has proven to be a smart decision. The 30-year-old has worked to a 3.13 earned run average through 37 1/3 innings. He has punched out a third of opposing hitters. His 15% swinging strike rate is a top 30 mark in MLB (minimum 30 innings). The command is still a concern — he has walked more than 14% of batters faced — but he has huge stuff. Domínguez averages nearly 98 MPH on his heater and misses bats with both his breaking ball and a splitter. He has been locked in over the past few weeks. Since June 1, he has fired 16 innings with three runs (one earned) while striking out 25 against eight walks.

Gregory Soto ($5.35MM salary, impending free agent)

Like Domínguez, Soto landed with the Orioles in a trade from Philadelphia at last summer’s deadline. The 30-year-old southpaw is a two-time All-Star from his early days as Detroit’s closer. He didn’t meet expectations after the Phils acquired him going into 2023. Soto has tantalized with big stuff, but the results haven’t really matched in recent seasons.

Soto is amidst his best year since Detroit traded him. He has provided the O’s with 33 1/3 innings of 3.78 ERA ball. Soto has struck out 28% of opponents against a slightly elevated 10.4% walk percentage. He has only allowed five runs since the beginning of June, three of which came in one rough appearance against Texas on July 1. A lefty with a 97 MPH fastball who is having a solid season is going to intrigue plenty of contenders.

Andrew Kittredge ($9MM salary, $9MM club option with $1MM buyout for 2026)

Baltimore added the 35-year-old Kittredge on a $10MM free agent deal. His organizational tenure got off to a rough start. Kittredge injured his left knee and required Spring Training debridement surgery. That kept him from making his team debut until May 21. Kittredge has pitched well, posting a 3.57 ERA with a slightly above-average 23.7% strikeout rate. He has only walked 6.5% of opponents.

Kittredge doesn’t light up radar guns the way that Domínguez and Soto can. His fastball sits in the 94-95 MPH range; he leans as frequently on a high-80s slider. Kittredge has nevertheless been a quality leverage piece when healthy. He was an All-Star with the Rays in 2021. After undergoing Tommy John surgery the next year, he returned to toss 70 2/3 innings of 2.80 ERA ball for the Cardinals last season. Kittredge led the National League with 37 holds a year ago. There shouldn’t be any doubt regarding his ability to handle important innings. The club option means the O’s could retain him into next season, but they may prefer to shop him rather than banking on his age-36 campaign.

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