As the Cardinals embarked on a self-proclaimed youth movement that commenced last offseason, veterans like Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado had control over their futures by virtue of their contracts’ no-trade provisions. Arenado ultimately wound up considering trade possibilities anyhow, but Gray and Contreras quickly made their intentions to remain in St. Louis clear to the club. That won’t be the case for Gray in the coming offseason, however. Asked following last night’s game whether he feels he has to consider greenlighting a trade this winter, the former All-Star was candid in acknowledging a change in tune (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch):
“I think I do, just to be frank and to be honest. I definitely think I do. Whether I do decide that I want to go somewhere – whether that actually happens – I don’t have complete control of that. Obviously, I have control of where I can’t go or don’t go. I’m going to be 36. It’s going to be my 14th season. Last year of my contract for this. I don’t know what the future holds for me.”
Gray, 36 in November, has enjoyed another solid season in 2025, pitching to a 4.28 ERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate, a 5% walk rate and a 43.9% ground-ball rate in 180 2/3 innings. Metrics like FIP (3.39) and SIERA (3.29) feel he’s been far better than that more rudimentary earned run average would indicate. Since signing with the Cards in the 2023-24 offseason, Gray has made 60 starts and turned in a 4.07 ERA (3.27 FIP, 3.16 SIERA) in 347 innings.
On the surface, that performance and Gray’s broader track record would seem to create plenty of trade value — but the right-hander’s contract complicates matters. Even beyond the full no-trade protection, the backloaded nature of the contract will make it difficult for new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom (who was announced as current president John Mozeliak’s successor last October) to extract real value in return for the former Cy Young runner-up.
Gray is entering the final season of a three-year, $75MM contract. However, he earned just $10MM of that sum in year one of the contract and $25MM in 2025. He’s owed a massive $35MM salary for the 2026 season and at least a $5MM buyout on a $30MM club option for the 2027 season. The 2022-26 CBA stipulates that for traded players, their luxury tax hit is recalculated to match the remainder of their contract. As such, Gray comes with a $40MM CBT number. To a team that isn’t paying the luxury tax, that’s perhaps not a dealbreaker. But for third-time payors in the top penalty tier (e.g. Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Yankees), Gray would come with a 110% tax; he’d effectively cost them a staggering $84MM.
No team is going to that length for one year of Gray, Plus, the Cards can’t even pitch the ’27 club option as a potential benefit. Gray’s contract stipulates that if his 2027 option is exercised, he can simply void the option and elect free agency. If Gray pitches well enough next year to merit a $30MM salary in 2027, he’ll probably just opt out once that option is exercised. That’d spare the new team $5MM in guaranteed money (plus any associated taxes), but that’s not really a selling point for the Cardinals when negotiating.
While we’ve seen a select few pitchers secure an annual value exceeding the effective one year and $40MM remaining on Gray’s contract, MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that it’s been reserved only for clear Cy Young-caliber arms coming off peak seasons. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer both secured $43.333MM annual values when they were even older than Gray, but Verlander was coming off an AL Cy Young win in 2022 and Scherzer had just posted a 2.46 ERA and finished third in NL Cy Young balloting the year prior. Zack Wheeler’s three-year extension with the Phillies pays him $42MM annually but was signed when Wheeler was a year younger and had turned in a combined 3.06 ERA in his previous 629 1/3 innings.
Gray, of course, is a decorated pitcher himself — a former first-round pick and three-time All-Star who has twice finished in the top-three of American Cy Young voting. That includes a second-place Cy Young finish with Minnesota as recently as 2023. His work with the Cardinals has been a few steps below those other $40MM-per-year aces, however.
There’s little doubt that Gray would be an in-demand commodity, in a vacuum. He’s 13th among all major league pitchers in terms of innings pitched since the 2019 season and carries a strong 3.51 ERA in that time. He misses bats, boasts plus command and keeps the ball on the ground at a slightly above-average clip. If Gray were a free agent and were to declare that he would only sign a one-year deal, it’s feasible that he could command close to $30MM, or perhaps even a slight bit more. Teams — especially big-market, high-payroll clubs — are often willing to pay a premium in terms of AAV to limit the long-term risk on free-agent contracts.
Even if there are teams who value him in that range though, the Cardinals would need to eat around $10MM just to pay Gray down to market value. If they wanted to actually create the type of surplus value that would net them a notable return in terms of prospects, they’d probably need to eat closer to $20-25MM of the contract. That probably wouldn’t net them a premium prospect, but at that price point they could justify asking for a solid minor leaguer or two to add to the middle tiers of their farm system.
It’s not yet clear how comfortable Cards ownership will be with paying substantial money to net a prospect return. If simply clearing salary is the goal, the Cards could probably eat $8-10MM and find a taker with little to no return — similar to the Cubs’ trade of Cody Bellinger to the Yankees last winter. The strength of any potential return will be contingent upon how much of the contract the DeWitt family is willing to pay down. Those are conversations that Bloom and ownership will have in the weeks ahead.
What’s clear at this point is both Gray’s intention to consider the possibility of waiving that full no-trade clause and the type of offseason that looms on the horizon for the Cardinals.
“I know the deal,” Gray last night said after noting that he and Bloom have spoken at length about the upcoming offseason. “I know the direction. …I came here to win. I signed here two years ago with the expectation of winning and trying to win, and that hasn’t played out that way. I want to win. I want to win, and I expect to win.”
Based on everything Gray said last night, there’s a very real chance that yesterday’s outing — six innings, two runs, seven hits, two walks, seven strikeouts — represents the final appearance of his Cardinals tenure.
If, as seems likely, the Cardinals would have to pay most of his contract and get little in return to move him, I wonder if they are better off keeping him.. Between how often pitchers get hurt and how inconsistent young pitchers can be, maybe the value in having one reliable veteran starting pitcher in the rotation. eating innings is greater than the savings they would get by dumping him.
I think it depends entirely on how much salary they need to eat. If it is 8-10 million like the article suggests, I think that’s probably a no-brainer even with no return, especially if we aren’t expecting to compete. If the number is 15-20 million, even for a light return, it gets a little more complicated.
I think they could offload him for no return from a big spender. Just isn’t any surplus value on what he’s being paid.
Gray could negotiate an extension with the acquiring team, so they could lower the AAV on his salary, which would lessen the luxury tax burden and make it more likely that they’d give up a better return of players (one of which could already be making a decent salary – which would also help in taking on Gray’s money).
Year too late I’m afraid. Maybe teams don’t want him as much anymore? At least not at that price. At this point the Cards will have to eat more money and the return will probably be less. But like Barnum said about suckers, There’s one born every minute.
Gray and his $40 million salary to the Mets.
Montas and his $17 million salary to the cardinals.
Good (not great) prospect capital to the Cardinals – maybe the equivalent of what the Mets paid in prospect capital for Helsley.
You really think Mets fans would want him on their team after his disastrous time with the Yankees?
To be fair, the Yankees dictated how he pitched and what pitches he threw.
To be fair, they eventually tossed that out the window and let him throw as he wanted and he got even worse.
They won’t be competitive next year. Eat 25 mil, get a decent prospect. Eat 20 mil of arenado, get a lottery ticket. What money you save on those 2 spend on Donovan extension. Plus who knows with the prospects they could potentially get. If you can’t extend Donovan, trade him for a nice return too. The real key is trading Contreras. If the others go maybe he will wave his no trade too. Throw in some money on his deal and get another decent prospect. Plus with him gone they can play gorman or burleson at first and put actual outfielders in the outfield. Then the books will be clean for 2027. Then hope some of the non weatherholt prospects pan out.
He’s 36 yrs old, 14 years in the majors, signed a no trade deal, how much will it cost the Cardinals, they will have to pay or 60 to 70 % on what’s left of the contract. At 36 the return is not going to be that great. I could see them unless they get a sucker of a team to overpay for him this off season, I could see him maybe being dealt at the trade deadline of 2026 and if not, I could see him being just out right released from the Cardinals by August 31st so he could maybe hook on with a playoff contending team.
“Get me outta here!”
“here….eat this”
Guarenteed $40 million, even for one year, is a lot, and probably only a few teams can afford that. He’s been pretty reliable in terms of health, so I could see the Dodgers as a fit. Padres have Dylan Cease and Michael King hitting FA, so Gray could be an option for them. Red Sox are another fit so they can have someone to go with Crochet/Giolito/Bello. I could see the Tigers being super aggressive after this September meltdown, though there might be better fits than Gray.
Trade only happens after all the big free agent pitchers are off the table.
The old adage, there are no bad 1 year contracts goes out the window here. STL would have to eat some of the contract or take back a bad contract.
And this is all moot if Gray doesn’t approve a trade. He’s only agreeing if he likes the other team; that other team has to like him too.
Trade with the Braves
Sonny Gray
Brendan Donovan
Jordan Walker
25 million
For
Spencer Strider
Reynaldo Lopez
Only a fool would pay no more than 15 mill out of the outrageous 35 mill owed. Just an example of how bad baseball salaries are
The Cardinals rank 19th in attendance this year. They should expect that to drop to levels never seen before if they get rid of Sonny, Nolan, and Willson. They create this Ballpark Village atmosphere, raise ticket prices,and don’t place a competitive team on the field is just perplexing.
Were the Cardinals desperate to sign Gray to negotiate those kind of terms of his contract? Those terms$ are just crazy
The deal was backloaded dude. It was a 3 year 75 million dollar contract.
Unless the Tigers trade Skubal, a solid starter on a one-year contract will be interesting for them. They could absorb the CBT hit and perhaps up to $ 25m in real cash. So Detroit might be an option, even more so without St. Louis having to take any bad contracts themselves.
Gruß,
BSHH