Fangraphs gives each current division leader at least a 60% chance of maintaining that lead through the end of the regular season, per their latest playoff odds. Not all of those chances are equal, however, and two division leaders are far less likely to hold onto their title than the rest.
One is the Blue Jays, who around 45% of MLBTR readers view as likely to hold onto the division as of yesterday’s poll. The other is the Astros, who took control of the division off the back of a dominant 19-7 month of June but since then have struggled to keep pace. They’re 26-29 since the start of July and 16-21 since July 24. Houston’s managed to fend off the Mariners and Rangers in the AL West until now, however, and actually has a larger lead (three games) over Seattle now than they did in mid-August, when they were briefly tied for the division lead at one point.
That rebound in recent weeks has helped them stay afloat, but there’s still cause for concern. What was once a dominant front two in the rotation has now dropped to one; while Hunter Brown is still excelling amid a campaign that’s likely to earn him legitimate consideration for the Cy Young award, Framber Valdez is struggling badly of late with an ERA north of 6.00 since the start of August. The bullpen took a major hit when Josh Hader was sidelined by a sprained shoulder, and the lineup simply isn’t scoring enough runs. The Astros are 29th in the majors since the start of August when it comes to runs scored, and 21st since the start of July. Cam Smith hasn’t sustained his strong start to the year, Isaac Paredes and Jake Meyers are on the injured list, and Jeremy Pena is no longer hitting like a potential MVP candidate.
All of those flaws in the roster have left Houston vulnerable, and their +14 run differential is not just lower than those of the Mariners and Rangers, it’s the lowest of any team currently in playoff position. With six games against Texas and three more against Seattle still on the schedule for September, they’ll need to duke it out with those teams outright in order to hold onto the division. That provides an opportunity for those clubs to make up a lot of ground in a relatively short amount of time. And with the toughest strength of schedule remaining in the division, Houston can’t necessarily bank on cleaning up against weaker teams in their other games.
All of that may make it seem as though the Astros have their work cut out for them if they want to hold onto their lead in the AL West. While that could certainly be true, it’s not as if they don’t also have significant advantages working in their favor. For one thing, much of that rough injury luck has been balanced out by other players returning. Yordan Alvarez and Cristian Javier, in particular, figure to be impactful pieces for Houston down the stretch. And while players like Smith and Pena have cooled off to varying degrees, Jose Altuve and Christian Walker have turned back the clock in the second half after tough starts to the season. Carlos Correa is already hitting better now that he’s back in Houston than he had been in Minnesota, and perhaps a veteran core of Altuve, Walker, Correa, and Alvarez will be able to turn things around for the offense over the season’s final month.
The other thing working in Houston’s favor is the reality that Seattle and Texas aren’t exactly behemoths, either. While the Mariners lineup has put up respectable numbers led by Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, and Randy Arozarena, their vaunted starting rotation has looked much more vulnerable this season than in previous years. They’ll get help from a flimsy schedule that pits them against the likes of St. Louis, Colorado, and Atlanta over the season’s final weeks, but without George Kirby and Logan Gilbert posting better numbers than their league-average season figures, that might not be enough. As for the Rangers, injuries to Nathan Eovaldi, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager have dismantled the team’s veteran core for the foreseeable future. The losses of Semien and Seager, in particular, are forcing them to rely on a far less reliable group of position players for the stretch run as they look to take advantage of their aforementioned six games against the Astros this month.
How do MLBTR readers view Houston’s odds of making it to October with the AL West crown in hand? Will their veteran core be able to score enough runs going forward, or will the Mariners or perhaps even the Rangers sneak in to take over? Have your say in the poll below:
As a Mariners-liker, I only have faith that they’ll hold onto a WC spot because the teams behind them are incomplete. Them overtaking the Astros again seems like a pipe dream.
This weekend, Houston vs. Texas is a HUGE series. This question is probably better. This time next week.
This is my 49th season as a Mariners fan . I think they’ve won the division twice in all that time. So, I don’t expect anything more than a Wild Card. That said, if they go on the road for a WC series, I’d much sooner face the Astros than to have to go to Fenway or Yankee Stadium to win 2 games.
Three times. 1995, 1997, 2001.
Votes are a lot closer than I’d expected. I don’t see why not since the mariners seem to be keeping pace in losing their games in The American League Worst.
If the Mariners could learn to stop beating themselves this conversation would be far different. They have it all on paper, but that never quite translates to on field performance.
May win the pennant but will blow it in the AL playoffs.
Winning the pennant means winning the AL or NL and going to the World Series.
With all the injuries the Astros have had it’s amazing they’re in first place. But the reality is, if the Mariners or Rangers were playing up to their ability…yeah
Mariners are incapable of success so the Astros will win it by default
Who else is going to win it? lol
As an M’s fan, I’ve learned to never expect them to win the West. They just can’t stay consistent for long enough to win the division. 52.5% winning percentage is even worse then our usual 54% target and that’s with our best “on paper” team in over 20 years.
Seattle has a generally easier schedule than last month and play 2 or 3 more games at home than on the road.
The Rangers were wise to focus on pitching at the deadline, in my opinion. The AL West is up for grabs.
Mariners are going to get into the playoffs but until they don’t win the division, Astros are the team to beat.
Houston always finds a way despite injuries and losing key players in free agency.
Framber just brought culture into the final equation. Astros should cut their losses unless he has a quick epiphany and becomes a better human and teammate.
You see that “cross-up” after the Grisham grand slam lol?
The Astros are dealing with a ton of injuries and aren’t what they used to be, but every other AL West team (especially the Mariners) can’t seem to figure out how to overtake them. It’s really embarrassing.
Rangers win it