This week's mailbag gets into offseason possibilities for the Cubs and Mets and also includes questions on the Angels, Guardians, and A's.
Walter asks:
With the Cubs probably not getting serious on Tucker, how much money will the Cubs have to spend and what are the likely targets to hopefully build a champion next year? Starting pitching? Bullpen?
Colin asks:
How should the Cubs replace Kyle Tucker? It feels like keeping it internal with a combo of Seiya and Caissie and Alcantara in RF and the first two and Ballesteros at DH won't make up for Tucker's production. Curious if there are any good targets out there for them to pursue.
Kelly asks:
The Cubs have several players going into next season in their final year. What do you predict will happen with Boyd, Suzuki, Happ and Hoerner? I know some of it is predicated on Tucker, but which are the priorities in your opinion to extend or trade this off-season? Where do Ballesteros, Amaya, Cassie and Long factor into their decision?
Nick asks:
Tucker leaves, Caissie in right, and sign Bregman. Can the Cubs package Happ and Shaw together for a controllable starter? Anybody come to mind?
It seems odd to get into the Cubs' offseason as they host the Padres in the Wild Card Series, but I received many of these questions and I aim to please with this mailbag.
The Cubs will easily come in below the $241MM competitive balance tax this year, after going a little bit over in 2024. They were also under the CBT from 2021-23.
Regular season attendance was up 3.7% this year, plus at least a few playoff games are taking place at Wrigley Field. In theory, the Cubs could get into the range of the $244MM threshold, if president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer sees reasonable ways to spend that money. So what do the 2026 commitments look like?
- Dansby Swanson - $25.3MM
- Ian Happ - $20.3MM
- Seiya Suzuki - $17MM
- Jameson Taillon - $17MM
- Matthew Boyd - $14.5MM
- Nico Hoerner - $11.7MM
- Carson Kelly - $5.75MM
I'll also make a few option assumptions:
- Cubs will pick up Andrew Kittredge's $9MM club option
- Cubs will pick up Colin Rea's $6MM club option
- Cubs will pick up Shota Imanaga's three-year, $57MM club option. I'm not entirely sure on the CBT hit in this case, but $19MM should be close enough for our purposes.
There is a case to be made for declining Imanaga's three-year option, but we can get into that another time.
I dared to enter Matt Swartz's top-secret arbitration lab, in the basement of the MLB Trade Rumors building, to beg for some early numbers. But the Cubs' class is only Justin Steele, Javier Assad, Reese McGuire, and Eli Morgan. We can just worry about Steele and Assad, who have respective projections of $6.55MM and $1.9MM.
These 12 players, plus other stuff such as player benefits, brings the team's estimated CBT payroll to $176MM. If these estimates are generally correct, the Cubs will enter the 2026-27 offseason about $68MM shy of the $244MM CBT threshold. There's space to spend some serious money this winter!
Assessing potential Cubs targets will require a team breakdown!
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
