The Padres’ top priority in the offseason was plain for anyone to see. Even before the announcement that Yu Darvish would miss the 2026 season following UCL surgery, San Diego was already faced with the potential losses of Dylan Cease and Michael King to free agency. Nick Pivetta, meanwhile, has an opt-out opportunity next offseason. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller removed any modicum of doubt about his to-do list at this week’s GM Meetings, telling Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune that “especially with King and Cease in free agency and Darvish’s injury, [starting pitching] is probably our top need going into the offseason.”
More notably, Acee reports that San Diego seems unlikely to play at the top of the market in its quest for rotation help. The Padres have already been exploring the trade market for potential options, per the report. King and Cease both received qualifying offers and seem likely to reject in search of more lucrative multi-year deals. Acee suggests that the Padres will “almost certainly” be moving on from both pitchers. Assuming that’s the case, San Diego will get a pair of draft picks as compensation — though their status as a luxury tax payor means those picks will come after the fourth round rather than after the first round.
At present, the Padres’ rotation includes Pivetta, Joe Musgrove (returning from 2024 Tommy John surgery) and a slew of question marks. JP Sears struggled after coming over from the A’s in the Mason Miller blockbuster. Randy Vasquez posted a solid-looking 3.84 ERA but did so with one of MLB’s worst strikeout rates. Metrics like FIP (4.85) and SIERA (5.43) feel he’s due for major regression. Matt Waldron couldn’t replicate his 2024 form. The rest of the depth was thinned out when Preller traded Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, Braden Nett and Henry Baez in deadline trades to acquire catcher Freddy Fermin (Bergert, Kolek) and the aforementioned Miller (Nett, Baez).
Preller acknowledged to both Acee and Dennis Lin of The Athletic that the Padres could again consider moving a reliever to the rotation, as they’ve successfully done in the past with King, Kolek and Seth Lugo. It’s something the club will explore, but Preller noted that in past instances of the Padres making such a move, he only did so when the reliever in question was enthusiastic about the move. Acee notes that moving a reliever to the rotation seems unlikely at present. He lists Miller and Adrian Morejon as possible candidates, as does Lin, who adds righty David Morgan as a possibility for the switch. However, Preller cautioned against depleting the strength of his bullpen, which is already losing Robert Suarez, and noted that it’s important to make sure his club doesn’t end up with “two mediocre units” (referring to his rotation and bullpen).
Though the focus is on the rotation, it’s not the Padres’ only need. Preller tells Robert Murray of FanSided that his club has interest in retaining first baseman Luis Arraez, who’s a free agent for the first time this winter.
The 28-year-old Arraez (29 in April) spent most of the 2024 season and all of 2025 in San Diego after being traded over from Miami. This past season was arguably Arraez’s worst in seven major league seasons. He yet again posted a quality batting average, but not to his usual extent, and he did so with even lesser on-base and slugging marks than usual. Arraez’s .292/.327/.392 is well shy of the career .323/.372/.418 line he carried into the 2025 season.
Arraez feels more like a luxury than a need for the Padres, who could plug in Gavin Sheets at first base as an affordable option or utilize Jake Cronenworth at first and give Sheets more of a DH role. That’d allow the club to pursue middle infielders, with Xander Bogaerts capable of handling either shortstop (as he did in 2025) or second base (as he did in 2024). Arraez doesn’t seem likely to break the bank given the lack of punch and on-base heft behind his perennially strong batting average, but if the Padres plan to focus primarily on rotation help, even a relatively modest two- or three-year deal for Arraez might not be in the cards.
One other question facing San Diego this winter is the health of setup man Jason Adam. The right-hander suffered a season-ending tendon rupture in his quadriceps in early September but is on the road to recovery. Adam tells Jeff Sanders of the Union-Tribune that there’s a chance he’ll be ready for Opening Day, though he could be cutting it close. Adam says he expects to pitch at some point in spring training but may not be “right on time.” He and the team aren’t ruling out Opening Day, which is a clear goal, but he cautions that he “won’t be stupid about” his recovery and risk a setback.
The 34-year-old Adam has risen from relative obscurity to staking a legitimate claim as one of MLB’s top setup arms. Dating back to 2022, he’s pitched to a combined 2.07 ERA, including three seasons with a sub-2.00 mark (and a 2.98 ERA in his “down” year in 2023). Along the way, Adam has fanned 29.2% of his opponents against an 8.4% walk rate. Since 2022, only three relievers — Tyler Rogers, Bryan Abreu, Griffin Jax — have more holds than Adam’s 92.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $6.8MM salary for Adam next season. That’s his final year of club control, so if he were expected to miss a notable portion of the season, Adam would’ve been a natural non-tender candidate, despite his excellence. The fact that he’s now citing Opening Day as a realistic target makes it far likelier that he’s back, though if the Padres are particularly crunched for payroll space — a 2026 budget remains unclear — then they could feasibly look to move Adam for a modest return and reallocate those dollars toward the rotation.
Even with Suarez opting out and Adam in limbo health-wise, the Padres still boast a deep late-inning group with Miller, Morejon (2.08 ERA), Morgan (2.66 ERA as a rookie) and Jeremiah Estrada (3.45 ERA, 35.5 K%) all still in the fold. A healthy Adam would give San Diego one of the best bullpens in MLB, if not the best.
Cease was such a weird starter. He got a lot of Ks but it seemed like once a runner got on base he would panic. This led to him giving up multiple runs each start. To be fair to him, part of his record being so bad was the offense’s inability to hit/score.
Cease has amazing stuff and is very fun to watch when everything’s clicking. It’s just not consistent enough to my liking for a lucrative deal.
I’ll be sad if King leaves. Got to see him against Atlanta in the 2024 NLWC and that was one of the best sporting events I’ve ever attended.
Cease led the league in bewildering head shakes and Hair adjustments.
Adam wouldn’t pitch on my team. There are relievers who are just as good, or better, who are not haters.
I guess I missed this as I don’t follow the Padres, but “hater”?
I wouldn’t call it hate, but a little twisted by his modern Christian interpretations. Jesus was a lot more open minded.
outsports.com/2022/6/6/23155752/tampa-bay-rays-pit…
Who cares? Nothing to see here.
What is sad is that Christ never mentioned homosexuality being a sin. He did say that hating anyone else was a sin.
That said, it doesn’t matter to me if he is homophobic as long as he doesn’t start saying hateful things. In this case all he said is it’s a faith-based thing tearing the rainbow symbol off his uniform in 2022. He did lie about it and that is a sin according to Christ. He said he wanted LGBTQ community to know they are welcome, but his actions showed clearly that to him they are not. I wonder if he realizes that he likely had and has teammates that are in the closet?
Since then, he has worn gear on Pride night that had the rainbow or other pride symbols on them. I wonder what changed for him.
I would not wear a Pride related uniform either, and I’m not Christian. Do what you what to do as long it doesn’t hurt anyone, but don’t press your agenda and woke bs on those who want nothing to do with it. Woke is a cult.
Seems like this Alan guy is projecting. What a strange comment.
Love Adam and HIS Values
Be not righteous over much.
It’s called “the First Amendment”. It’s a “thing” in America, and it’s real. That means that no one has the right to establish a dominant authoritative religion. I’m not talking about Adam’s Christianity and his consistency in his faith and family leadership. I’m talking about the anti-Christians (and I won’t name ’em all out of politeness), trying to implement THEIR ideology as the dominant, mandatory world view. He isn’t “closed minded”, but rather he’s a man with a well thought out world view. Saying that he shouldn’t have a job in the MLB is trying to “cancel” Adam Adam for his Christianity, and remaining faithful to it. THAT’s close minded. I support ** FREEDOM **, in both baseball and life.
But they’re not doing that? Literally your company is doing something for another community and by ripping off their patches they blatantly disregard and disrespected what it was about. And it’s not about THEM.
Have your freedom, sure, but have some respect too, not only to the community being honored, but the company you work for. Adams and crew made it about their faith instead.
Good points Salz. I definitely don’t consider Adam a hater, and I can see both sides. Love and respect for all used to be an American quality and it seemed okay as a Chistian value as well. But but it’s taken a fall and can’t get up,.
We stray from baseball and I apologize for participating in that. I meant only to address vtadave’s inquiry.
In this case it’s NOT the 1st amendment. His employer put the patch on the jersey, one that was approved by MLB, and tearing it off cost him $5k for a uniform violation. A rule that he agreed to in the UPC. He can say what he wants, but he could not do what he did with his jersey without violating the rules he agreed to in his contract.
He did what he did because of a world view that homosexuality is a sin. A fundamentalist “Christian” world view. One they are trying to make the dominant, mandatory world view in the US. If it was a well thought out world view, he would realize that Christ didn’t indicate that homosexuality was a sin. Lack of love for your fellow man? A sin. Lying? A sin. Not welcoming immigrant? A sin. Homosexuality? Not a word.
Know that I am a Christian. Off my soap box.
ironic
The Pads have 2 (maybe 3) prospects that will likely contribute to the rotation/bullpen in 2026 and they might factor into the decision to convert Morejon, Morgon or Miller to SPs.
Miguel Mendez has electric stuff that appears ML-ready, but lacks a third pitch and might be better suited as a RP in the majors. He needs to acquire a little more time in minors, though his path to MLB is accelerating because of this dynamic performance in 2025 (where his walk rate was nearly cut in half). Bradgeley Rodriguez (100+ mph) has already contributed to the big league squad in 2025 and is very likely to play a significant role in the bullpen in 2026.
Of the three rostered RPs I think the most likely to be converted to SP is Morgan. But if one of the all-star RPs are converted, Morejon is by far the most efficient (fewest pitches per inning among RPs) and would be better suited to go deep into games than would Miller. Plus, Miller certainly fits the closer role best with loss of Suarez. I hope both are retained in the bullpen though.
I agree. I don’t want Miller being a starter. With how hard he throws, you make him a starter and the inevitable countdown to TJ accelerates.
I had basically written him off a few years back, and was honestly shocked about his return and how well he did. I’d hate to see Morejon return to the rotation, and see his health break down again. If I were his dad or his agent, I’d advise him that “…. you’re one of the best MLB relievers, your in the game regularly, healthy, and have the stuff to close. You’ll get paid eventually, and enjoy your career. It’s not worth the risk of an early retirement to pursue the role as a starter.”
Padres’ rotation could certainly use some help
Per FanGraphs’ projections
PLAYER FIP, fWAR/150 IP
Pivetta 3.95, 2.3
Musgrove 3.96 2.2
Sears 4.81, 0.9
Vasquez 5.10 0.6
Waldron 4.80 0.7
That’s a couple of mid rotation starters and some number 5’s.
I still think there’s a small chance they get King back on a short-term, high-AAV deal with an opt-out or two. They’re definitely out on Cease. Even then, need a Pivetta-or-two-like upside signing.
They may bring king back but I don’t think it will be on a short term deal. I think some team is gonna give him a big contract.
hard to say if they will go with any big long- or medium-term contracts with the sale of the team happening
Looks awful
Not great but there is a chance some of those dudes out perform those projections.
Padres definitely need a top 3 rotation guy and a 4/5 guy who can eat some innings.
Perhaps one or both of them comes from a pen arm becoming a starter. I’m most intrigued by stretching out morejon and Morgan.
I’d keep miller in the pen. Miller, Adam (hopefully back by the start of the season or soon after), Estrada, Rodriguez, Peralta, Matsui along with a couple of other dudes like hoeing, Reynolds, Jacob as well as some other arms that could be in the mix from the minors should keep this pen at one of the better ones.
I definitely can see morejon making the jump to a top 3 guy. If so then just have to hope for good health. Morgan could settle into the 4 spot.
Pivetta
Musgrove
Morejon
Morgan
Vasquez/sears
Looks a lot better than that mix. This is without adding a single starter to the mix. Which they will almost certainly do. Would also free up some money to add to the hitting mix.
1st off, those are projections and only one of many projections on that website, not reality. Remember, those same projections were off on Pivetta and Vasquez by 2 full points or more for 2025.
#2, way to completely ignore ERA and use a stat. fWAR, that uses imaginary numbers to calculate how good a player is and then compound that with tying it to 150 IP instead of how many they actually threw.
Pivetta – 2.87 ERA, 5.3 WAR – that is a #1 starter
Vasquez – 3.84 ERA, 2.2 WAR – that is better than league average.
Musgrove didn’t pitch last year. His last 2 seasons, while injured, he put up a 3.47 ERA in 36 starts. He may not achieve that in his first season back, but he is still expected to be a #2-#3 starter.
“fWAR, that uses imaginary numbers
LOL
“tying it to 150 IP”
LOL
Absolute no on bringing back Arraez. Not only a waste of $ but takes up a roster spot. Poor fielder, no slug, runs like he is pulling a piano. Did they not learn anything last season about having a fly swatter offense.
Every year it feels like this roster is falling apart only for Preller to pull a rabbit out of his hat with some type of trade(s) or crafty signings. One has to wonder when the poor roster construction and extensions will blow up in their face as these guys get older?
I’m going to lose all enthusiasm for 2026 if they re-sign Arraez.
Arraez should go to the Red Sox.Can play different positions and doesn’t strike out.If he can hit with runners in Scoring position than he would be an amazing get.
I think they could do much better, and he’s basically a 1B/DH only glove at this point. He’d be fine in a few spots as a stopgap.
Arraez is fine but better suited to play second. I hate him at first. Unless the plan is to trade cronenworth which I doubt I just don’t see Arraez fitting the padres. They desperately need slug.
The Padres didn’t convert King to a starter; the Yankees did.
true that
Lugo was also an MLB starter; I think the point is more that the Padres have had success identifying/acquiring BP arms and transitioning them into full-time starters.
King started 9 games with the Yankees. They were likely going to continue to use him as a starter. Lugo was a starter before but was moved to the pen for a while before the padres stretched him back out.
Either way the padres have figured out how to use these guys in the rotation over a full season. Wouldn’t be all that different than moving morejon to bring a starter. He has been even in the big leagues before.
It will definitely be an interesting offseason for the padres.
Moments after Acee’s speculation Preller tells the Japanese media that the Padres have made Imai one of their top targets in FA. How is it that Acee is so consistently wrong? Do the Padres just feed him misinformation, or does he just think it’s ok to lie?
I think the padres like to feed him bad info. Preller is literally on record saying we listen to Acee then do the opposite.
I’ve also learned that the Padres don’t generally correspond with Acee other than in game dialogue. Acee is largely locked out off-season and so his opinions are just that. Not insider scoop. This has apparently come to greatly frustrate Acee, and it manifests with him making bold speculation that is usually off. But UT likes the drama he creates so there seems to be a happy medium, facts be damned.
Exactly, got to get them clicks
Your opinion is not fact.
“Meanwhile” should START the sentence, not come in the middle between commas.