Latest On Padres’ Bullpen Outlook
Padres right-hander Jason Adam has been targeting the Opening Day roster as he finished off his rehab from last year’s torn tendon in his quadriceps. The right-hander said three weeks back that team doctors hadn’t told him “no” on the possibility yet, and Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Adam could get back into games soon. He’s been ahead of schedule in camp and is slated for one final simulated game this week before a likely Cactus League debut on the weekend.
The 34-year-old Adam is a major piece of a deep San Diego bullpen. Over the past four seasons, he’s worked to a 2.07 ERA with 92 holds, 24 saves, a 29.2% strikeout rate and an 8.4% walk rate across 256 2/3 innings between the Rays and Padres. If healthy, he’d join Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada as one of closer Mason Miller‘s top setup options.
A healthy Adam also leads to a relatively crowded bullpen that could force the Friars into some tough decisions. Miller, Estrada, Morejon and Adam would be locks for bullpen spots. That’s presumably true of righty David Morgan (2.64 ERA, 47 1/3 innings in 2025) as well. Lefties Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui are pitching on multi-year contracts and can’t be optioned.
That group accounts for seven of the Padres’ eight bullpen spots. Right-hander Ron Marinaccio is out of minor league options. Right-hander Bradgley Rodriguez has multiple option years left but has excelled in camp after impressing in a brief look last year. Righty Matt Waldron might start the season on the injured list, but he’s out of minor league options as well and would need to be added to the big league roster or designated for assignment. Bryan Hoeing is shut down with an elbow issue right now.
Having more talented relievers than bullpen spots available is obviously a nice problem to have, all things considered, and depending on the injury timetables of Adam and a couple teammates, the Friars might be able to kick any 40-man decisions down the road a bit for the early portion of the season. At some point, something will have to give on one of the players who can’t be sent down (whether due to contract or lack of minor league options.
That’s especially true if the Padres want to consider breaking camp with any non-roster invitees on the big league club. Veterans Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie are among that group, but manager Craig Stammen has been talking up the chances of a different former big leaguer for a potential bullpen job: right-hander Logan Gillaspie.
“He just goes out there, competes his tail off, lot of energy and enthusiasm, throws a ton of strikes and gets a lot of outs,” manager Craig Stammen told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell when asked about Gillaspie. He noted that Gillaspie could be used in a multi-inning role, providing some length early in games if necessary.
The 28-year-old Gillaspie has pitched in each of the past four major league seasons, including 18 innings for San Diego across the 2024-25 campaigns. He’s had pedestrian results overall, but Gillaspie is a familiar hand for many Padres coaches and is in the midst of a strong spring training (7 2/3 shutout frames, 8-to-2 K/BB ratio). Cassavell suggests that Gillaspie is viewed as having a real chance to make the club, particularly if the Padres open the season with multiple veterans on the injured list.
NL West Notes: Adam, Matsui, Hentges, Rushing
Padres reliever Jason Adam underwent surgery to fix a ruptured left quad last September, and as of November, Adam wasn’t sure if he’d be fully recovered in time for Opening Day. However, the early days of Spring Training have been promising for the right-hander. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Adam pitched a live batting practice for the first time today, and Adam is making slow but steady progress in fielding drills.
“Pitching-wise, we’re…beyond on pace. It’s just a matter of being cleared” by San Diego’s medical staff, Adam said. In terms of Opening Day readiness, Adam said the team’s trainers “haven’t told me ‘no’ yet.”
One of baseball’s top relievers over the last four seasons, Adam has a 1.66 ERA over 92 innings since the Padres acquired the righty from the Rays at the 2024 trade deadline. While the Padres still have an elite bullpen even without Adam, getting the All-Star back and healthy as early as possible in 2026 will be a huge boost to San Diego’s chances of both returning to the postseason and making a deeper run into October.
More from around the NL West…
- While things are looking positive for Adam, fellow Padres reliever Yuki Matsui is day-to-day with groin tightness after his injury cut short a live BP session on Thursday. Manager Craig Stammen told Acee and other reporters that the groin issue doesn’t appear to be serious enough to impact Matsui’s readiness for Opening Day, but it may well prevent the reliever from playing for Japan in the World Baseball Classic. Since signing a five-year, $28MM deal with the Padres in the 2023-24 offseason, Matsui has a solid but unspectacular 3.86 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, and 11.3% walk rate across 126 relief innings.
- Sam Hentges has thrown multiple 40-pitch bullpen sessions in the Giants‘ camp thus far, but he tells MLB.com’s Maria Guardado that he doesn’t have a set throwing progression in place, and it isn’t clear if he’ll be part of San Francisco’s Opening Day roster. The Giants signed the left-hander to a one-year, $1.4MM contract in December, even though Hentges hasn’t pitched in the majors since July 2024 (or in the minors since August 2024). A shoulder surgery was responsible for most of that layoff, but Hentges also underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee this past September, which delayed his offseason prep and the final stages of his shoulder rehab. Hentges acknowledged that his long absence played a role in the Giants’ decision to take it slowly with his spring work, though he is hoping to pitch in some games before Spring Training is over.
- Dalton Rushing‘s short-lived turn as an outfielder could be over, as Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told The Athletic’s Katie Woo and other reporters that Rushing will be used this season as a backup catcher and occasional first baseman. Rushing played in 31 minor-league games as an outfielder in 2024, but was on the grass just twice with Triple-A Oklahoma City in 2025, and he didn’t see any outfield work after making his MLB debut with Los Angeles. The former top prospect’s positional future has been a question mark ever since L.A. signed Will Smith to a ten-year extension in March 2024, locking Smith up as the Dodgers’ catcher for the foreseeable future. Between Smith’s extension, Shohei Ohtani set as the DH, and Freddie Freeman at first base, Rushing could be limited to part-time duty perhaps for the next two seasons, until Freeman’s contract is up following the 2027 campaign. While there has been plenty of speculation that the Dodgers could swing a trade, the team seems to still have designs on Rushing (who turns 25 tomorrow) as a key piece of their roster.
Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins
Most of the clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, which means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move. Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, however. The 60-day injured list goes away five days after the World Series but comes back when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.
Most clubs have a slightly earlier report date this year due to the World Baseball Classic. Last year, the Cubs and Dodgers had earlier report dates because they were had an earlier Opening Day than everyone else as part of the Tokyo Series. Gavin Stone was the first player to land on the 60-day IL in 2025, landing there on February 11th. According to MLB.com, every club has a report date from February 10th to 13th this year.
It’s worth pointing out that the 60 days don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until late May or beyond. A team also must have a full 40-man roster in order to move a player to the 60-day IL.
There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, Justin Verlander, Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito, and more. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment. If a team wants to pass a player through waivers, perhaps they will try to do so in the near future before the extra roster flexibility opens up.
Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time or who have uncertain recovery timelines from 2025 injuries.
Angels: Anthony Rendon, Ben Joyce
Rendon’s situation is unique. He underwent hip surgery a year ago and missed the entire 2025 season. He is still on the roster and signed through 2026. He and the club have agreed to a salary-deferment plan and he is not expected to be in spring training with the club. His recovery timeline is unclear, but general manager Perry Minasian said earlier this month that Rendon would be “rehabbing at home,” per Alden González of ESPN. If they were going to release him, they likely would have done so by now, so he seems destined for the injured list.
Joyce underwent shoulder surgery in May and missed the remainder of the 2025 season. His current status is unclear. In August, he told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that he didn’t know if he would be ready for spring training. He would only land on the 60-day IL if the Halos don’t expect him back before the end of May.
Astros: Hayden Wesneski, Ronel Blanco, Brandon Walter
All three of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery in 2025. Wesneski was first, with his surgery taking place on May 23rd. Blanco followed shortly thereafter in early June. They will likely be targeting returns in the second half. Walter’s procedure was in September, meaning he will likely miss the entire season. All three should be on the 60-day IL as soon as Houston needs roster spots for other transactions.
Athletics: Zack Gelof
Gelof underwent surgery to repair a dislocated shoulder in September, with the expectation of him potentially being healthy for spring training. At the end of December, general manager David Forst told Martín Gallegos of MLB.com that Gelof would be “a little bit behind” in spring. He would only land on the 60-day IL if the A’s think he’ll be out through late May.
Blue Jays: Jake Bloss
Bloss underwent surgery on the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow in May. He was on optional assignment at the time and stayed in the minors for the rest of the season. Going into 2026, the Jays could keep him in the minors but they could also call him up and place him on the major league IL. Doing so would open up a roster spot but would also mean giving Bloss big league pay and service time.
Braves: Ha-Seong Kim, AJ Smith-Shawver, Danny Young, Joe Jiménez
Kim recently fell on some ice and injured his hand. He underwent surgery last week, and the expected recovery time is four to five months. The shorter end of that window only goes to mid-May, so perhaps Atlanta will hold off on making a decision until they watch his recovery, especially since they have other guys with clearer injury timelines.
Smith-Shawver underwent Tommy John surgery in June, so he shouldn’t be back until the second half and is therefore a lock for the 60-day IL once Atlanta needs a spot. Young underwent the same procedure in May, so he should also be bound for the IL.
Jimenez is more of a question mark. He missed the 2025 season due to left knee surgery. He required a “cleanup” procedure on that knee towards the end of the season. His timeline isn’t currently clear.
Brewers: None.
Cardinals: None.
Cubs: Justin Steele
Steele will probably be a bit of a borderline case. He underwent UCL surgery in April but it wasn’t a full Tommy John surgery. The Cubs described it as a “revision repair”. Steele had undergone Tommy John in 2017 as a minor leaguer.
Since Steele’s more recent procedure was a bit less serious than a full Tommy John, the club gave an estimated return timeline of about one year, putting him in line to potentially return fairly early in 2026. Given his importance to the Cubs, they would only put him on the 60-day IL if his timeline changes and he’s certain to be out through late May.
Diamondbacks: Corbin Burnes, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., A.J. Puk, Justin Martínez, Blake Walston, Tyler Locklear
The Snakes were hit hard by the injury bug in 2025. Burnes, Walston and Martínez all underwent Tommy John surgery. Burnes and Martínez had their procedures in June, so they should be targeting second-half returns and be easy calls for the 60-day IL. Walston would be a bit more borderline because his surgery was around Opening Day in late March last year. Puk had the slightly less significant internal brace procedure in June, so he could also be a borderline case.
Turning to the position players, Gurriel tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in September. He required surgery which came with a return timeline of nine to ten months, so he should be out until around the All-Star break.
Locklear should be back sooner. He underwent surgery in October to address a ligament tear in his elbow and a labrum injury in his shoulder. The hope at the time of that procedure was that he would be game ready to go on a rehab assignment around Opening Day and would therefore miss only about the first month. He would therefore only hit the 60-day IL if he doesn’t meet that timeline for some reason.
Dodgers: Brock Stewart
Stewart underwent shoulder debridement surgery in September. His timeline for 2026 isn’t especially clear. He will likely start the season on the IL but it’s unclear if he’ll be out long enough to warrant landing on the 60-day version.
Giants: Randy Rodríguez, Jason Foley
Rodríguez underwent Tommy John surgery in September, so he’s a lock for the 60-day IL and might even miss the entire 2026 campaign. Foley’s status is a bit more murky. He underwent shoulder surgery in May while with the Tigers. Detroit non-tendered him at season’s end, which allowed the Giants to sign him. He is expected back at some point mid-season. The Giants may want to get more clarity on his progress during camp before deciding on a move to the IL.
Guardians: Andrew Walters, David Fry
Neither of these guys is a lock for the 60-day IL. Walters had surgery to repair his right lat tendon in June with a recovery estimate of eight to ten months. Fry underwent surgery in October due to a deviated septum and a fractured nose suffered when a Tarik Skubal pitch hit him in the face. His timeline is unclear. It’s possible one or both could be healthy by Opening Day, so relevant updates may be forthcoming when camps open.
Mariners: Logan Evans
Evans required UCL surgery just last week and will miss the entire 2026 season. He was on optional assignment at the end of 2025, so the Mariners could keep him in the minors. Calling him up and putting him on the big league 60-day IL would open up a 40-man spot but would also involve Evans receiving big league pay and service time for the year.
Marlins: Ronny Henriquez
Henriquez underwent internal brace surgery in December and will miss the entire 2026 season, so he’s a lock for the 60-day IL.
Mets: Tylor Megill, Reed Garrett, Dedniel Núñez
All three of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery late in 2025 and are likely to miss the entire 2026 season, making them locks for the 60-day IL. Núñez went under the knife in July, followed by Megill in September and Garrett in October.
Nationals: Trevor Williams, DJ Herz
Williams underwent internal brace surgery in July. That’s a slightly less serious variation of Tommy John but still usually requires about a year of recovery. Herz underwent a full Tommy John procedure in April. Since that surgery usually requires 14 months or longer to come back, both pitchers are likely out until around the All-Star break and therefore bound for the 60-day IL once the Nats need some roster spots.
Orioles: Félix Bautista
Bautista underwent shoulder surgery in August, and the club announced his recovery timeline as 12 months. He’s a lock for the 60-day IL and may miss the entire season if his recovery doesn’t go smoothly.
Padres: Yu Darvish, Jhony Brito, Jason Adam
Darvish underwent UCL surgery in November and will miss the entire 2026 season. Instead of going on the IL, he may just retire, but it seems there are some contractual complications to be ironed out since he is signed through 2028.
Brito and Adam could be borderline cases. Brito underwent internal brace surgery in May of last year. Some pitchers can return from that procedure in about a year. Adam ruptured a tendon in his left quad in early September. In November, he seemed to acknowledge that he wouldn’t be ready for Opening Day. As of now, a trip to the 60-day IL seems unlikely unless he suffers a setback.
Pirates: Jared Jones
Jones required UCL surgery on May 21st of last year. The Bucs announced an expected return timeline of 10 to 12 months. The shorter end of that window would allow Jones to return fairly early in 2026. If it looks like he’ll be on the longer end of that time frame, he could wind up on the 60-day IL.
Phillies: Zack Wheeler
Wheeler underwent surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome in September, with a timeline of six to eight months. As of now, it seems unlikely Wheeler would require a trip to the 60-day IL, but it depends on how his ramp-up goes. He’s also approaching his 36th birthday, and the Phils could slow-play his recovery.
Rangers: Cody Bradford
Bradford required internal brace surgery in late June of last year. He recently said he’s targeting a return in May. That’s a pretty aggressive timeline, but perhaps the Rangers will delay moving him to the 60-day IL until that plan is strictly ruled out.
Rays: Manuel Rodríguez
Rodriguez underwent flexor tendon surgery in July of last year and is targeting a return in June of this year, so he should be a lock for the 60-day IL.
Reds: Brandon Williamson, Julian Aguiar
Both of these pitchers required Tommy John surgeries late in 2024, Williamson in September and Aguiar in October. They each missed the entire 2025 season. Presumably, they are recovered by now and could be healthy going into 2026, but there haven’t been any recent public updates.
Red Sox: Tanner Houck, Triston Casas
Houck is the most clear-cut case for Boston. He had Tommy John surgery in August of 2025 and will miss most or perhaps all of the 2026 season. Casas is more borderline. He’s still recovering from a ruptured left patellar tendon suffered in May of last year. It doesn’t seem like he will be ready by Opening Day, but his timeline apart from that is murky.
Rockies: Jeff Criswell, Kris Bryant
Criswell required Tommy John surgery in early March of last year. With the normal 14-month recovery timeline, he could be back in May. Anything slightly longer than that would make him a candidate for the 60-day IL. Bryant’s timeline is very difficult to discern. He has hardly played in recent years due to various injuries and is now dealing with chronic symptoms related to lumbar degenerative disc disease. Updates will likely be provided once camp opens.
Royals: Alec Marsh
Marsh missed 2025 due to shoulder problems and is slated to miss 2026 as well after undergoing labrum surgery in November.
Tigers: Jackson Jobe
Jobe required Tommy John surgery in June of last year. He will miss most or perhaps even all of the 2026 season.
Twins: None.
White Sox: Ky Bush, Drew Thorpe, Prelander Berroa
These three hurlers all required Tommy John surgery about a year ago, Bush in February, followed by Berroa and Thorpe in March. Given the normal 14-month recovery period, any of them could return early in 2026, but they could also end up on the 60-day IL if the timeline pushes slightly beyond that.
Yankees: Clarke Schmidt, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Anthony Volpe
Schmidt is the only lock of this group. He required UCL surgery in July of last year and should miss the first half of the 2026 season. Cole is recovering from Tommy John surgery performed in March of last year. His target is expected to be late May/early June, so he has a decent chance to hit the 60-day. However, given his importance to the club, the Yankees probably won’t put him there until it’s certain he won’t be back by the middle of May.
Rodón had surgery in October to remove loose bodies in his elbow. He’s expected to be back with the big league club in late April or early May, so he would only hit the 60-day IL if his timeline is pushed. Volpe required shoulder surgery in October. He’s not expected to be ready by Opening Day, but his timeline beyond that doesn’t seem concrete.
Photo courtesy of Allan Henry, Imagn Images
Padres Notes: Rotation, Arraez, Adam
The Padres’ top priority in the offseason was plain for anyone to see. Even before the announcement that Yu Darvish would miss the 2026 season following UCL surgery, San Diego was already faced with the potential losses of Dylan Cease and Michael King to free agency. Nick Pivetta, meanwhile, has an opt-out opportunity next offseason. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller removed any modicum of doubt about his to-do list at this week’s GM Meetings, telling Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune that “especially with King and Cease in free agency and Darvish’s injury, [starting pitching] is probably our top need going into the offseason.”
More notably, Acee reports that San Diego seems unlikely to play at the top of the market in its quest for rotation help. The Padres have already been exploring the trade market for potential options, per the report. King and Cease both received qualifying offers and seem likely to reject in search of more lucrative multi-year deals. Acee suggests that the Padres will “almost certainly” be moving on from both pitchers. Assuming that’s the case, San Diego will get a pair of draft picks as compensation — though their status as a luxury tax payor means those picks will come after the fourth round rather than after the first round.
At present, the Padres’ rotation includes Pivetta, Joe Musgrove (returning from 2024 Tommy John surgery) and a slew of question marks. JP Sears struggled after coming over from the A’s in the Mason Miller blockbuster. Randy Vasquez posted a solid-looking 3.84 ERA but did so with one of MLB’s worst strikeout rates. Metrics like FIP (4.85) and SIERA (5.43) feel he’s due for major regression. Matt Waldron couldn’t replicate his 2024 form. The rest of the depth was thinned out when Preller traded Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, Braden Nett and Henry Baez in deadline trades to acquire catcher Freddy Fermin (Bergert, Kolek) and the aforementioned Miller (Nett, Baez).
Preller acknowledged to both Acee and Dennis Lin of The Athletic that the Padres could again consider moving a reliever to the rotation, as they’ve successfully done in the past with King, Kolek and Seth Lugo. It’s something the club will explore, but Preller noted that in past instances of the Padres making such a move, he only did so when the reliever in question was enthusiastic about the move. Acee notes that moving a reliever to the rotation seems unlikely at present. He lists Miller and Adrian Morejon as possible candidates, as does Lin, who adds righty David Morgan as a possibility for the switch. However, Preller cautioned against depleting the strength of his bullpen, which is already losing Robert Suarez, and noted that it’s important to make sure his club doesn’t end up with “two mediocre units” (referring to his rotation and bullpen).
Though the focus is on the rotation, it’s not the Padres’ only need. Preller tells Robert Murray of FanSided that his club has interest in retaining first baseman Luis Arraez, who’s a free agent for the first time this winter.
The 28-year-old Arraez (29 in April) spent most of the 2024 season and all of 2025 in San Diego after being traded over from Miami. This past season was arguably Arraez’s worst in seven major league seasons. He yet again posted a quality batting average, but not to his usual extent, and he did so with even lesser on-base and slugging marks than usual. Arraez’s .292/.327/.392 is well shy of the career .323/.372/.418 line he carried into the 2025 season.
Arraez feels more like a luxury than a need for the Padres, who could plug in Gavin Sheets at first base as an affordable option or utilize Jake Cronenworth at first and give Sheets more of a DH role. That’d allow the club to pursue middle infielders, with Xander Bogaerts capable of handling either shortstop (as he did in 2025) or second base (as he did in 2024). Arraez doesn’t seem likely to break the bank given the lack of punch and on-base heft behind his perennially strong batting average, but if the Padres plan to focus primarily on rotation help, even a relatively modest two- or three-year deal for Arraez might not be in the cards.
One other question facing San Diego this winter is the health of setup man Jason Adam. The right-hander suffered a season-ending tendon rupture in his quadriceps in early September but is on the road to recovery. Adam tells Jeff Sanders of the Union-Tribune that there’s a chance he’ll be ready for Opening Day, though he could be cutting it close. Adam says he expects to pitch at some point in spring training but may not be “right on time.” He and the team aren’t ruling out Opening Day, which is a clear goal, but he cautions that he “won’t be stupid about” his recovery and risk a setback.
The 34-year-old Adam has risen from relative obscurity to staking a legitimate claim as one of MLB’s top setup arms. Dating back to 2022, he’s pitched to a combined 2.07 ERA, including three seasons with a sub-2.00 mark (and a 2.98 ERA in his “down” year in 2023). Along the way, Adam has fanned 29.2% of his opponents against an 8.4% walk rate. Since 2022, only three relievers — Tyler Rogers, Bryan Abreu, Griffin Jax — have more holds than Adam’s 92.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $6.8MM salary for Adam next season. That’s his final year of club control, so if he were expected to miss a notable portion of the season, Adam would’ve been a natural non-tender candidate, despite his excellence. The fact that he’s now citing Opening Day as a realistic target makes it far likelier that he’s back, though if the Padres are particularly crunched for payroll space — a 2026 budget remains unclear — then they could feasibly look to move Adam for a modest return and reallocate those dollars toward the rotation.
Even with Suarez opting out and Adam in limbo health-wise, the Padres still boast a deep late-inning group with Miller, Morejon (2.08 ERA), Morgan (2.66 ERA as a rookie) and Jeremiah Estrada (3.45 ERA, 35.5 K%) all still in the fold. A healthy Adam would give San Diego one of the best bullpens in MLB, if not the best.
Padres Select Martin Maldonado
The Padres selected Martín Maldonado back onto the 40-man roster on Tuesday morning. That was required to carry him as the backup catcher for their Wild Card Series against the Cubs. Reliever Jason Adam, who is out for the season with a quad injury, was transferred to the 60-day injured list. Maldonado was in the organization on a minor league deal after being released from the MLB roster in August.
Backup catcher Elias Díaz tweaked his left oblique over the weekend and was evidently unavailable. Luis Campusano was the only other option on the 40-man roster who could back up Freddy Fermin. The Padres are carrying Campusano on the Wild Card series roster as well, but he hasn’t caught a single major league inning all season. Maldonado hasn’t been in the majors since the trade deadline but at least had built something of a rapport with the pitching staff when he and Díaz were the catching duo earlier in the year.
Fermin caught Nick Pivetta in today’s Game 1 loss. Díaz had worked behind the plate as Pivetta’s personal catcher for the entire season and would surely have been the Game 1 starter if healthy. Unless he suffers an injury, Fermin will play tomorrow and what the Padres hope is a necessary Game 3. Dylan Cease starts against a Cubs’ bullpen game tomorrow. San Diego has Yu Darvish lined up if the series goes to a decider. The Cubs have not announced plans for that potential outing.
Maldonado, who hit .204/.245/.327 and hasn’t played a game since July 30, is a contingency plan. The 15-year MLB veteran and 2022 World Series champion appeared in 65 postseason contests with the Astros between 2018-23.
Jason Adam Likely Headed For Season-Ending Quad Surgery
10:12pm: Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Adam will undergo season-ending surgery if a follow-up MRI confirms the initial diagnosis. The hope is that he’ll be able to return some time around the beginning of the 2026 season.
9:42pm: Padres reliever Jason Adam has been diagnosed with a tendon rupture in his left quad, manager Mike Shildt tells reporters (including Dennis Lin of The Athletic). Shildt didn’t specify a recovery timeline or whether surgery will be required. It’s nevertheless difficult to imagine Adam will be back this season.
Adam was carted off the Petco Park mound during this evening’s loss to the Orioles (video via Talkin’ Baseball). Gunnar Henderson hit a chopper up the middle. The ball was a little behind the right-handed Adam, who naturally pulls toward first base on the follow-through in his delivery. Adam appeared to try to plant and change direction to field the ball when his left leg gave out. The injury had some similarities to the one suffered by Giants starter Landen Roupp, who hurt his knee (coincidentally also in San Diego) while trying to dodge a comeback line drive two weeks ago.
Both pitchers end up being carted off the field. Roupp got relatively good news, as he escaped structural damage — though he did suffer a bone bruise that’ll likely end his season. Adam’s injury unfortunately seems more serious. It’ll also be a much more significant development on the playoff picture. The Friars trail the Dodgers by 2.5 games in the NL West. They’re in possession of the National League’s second Wild Card spot and six games clear of the top non-playoff team.
Adam was a journeyman depth reliever throughout his 20s. He suffered a gruesome left ankle fracture while with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate in 2021. It was remarkable that he got back on a mound just four months later. Adam had a breakout showing with the Rays the following season. He has been one of the best and most durable relievers in MLB over the past four years.
Since the start of 2022, Adam ranks sixth in the majors with 262 appearances. His 2.04 earned run average is fourth among relievers with 100+ innings in that stretch (trialing Emmanuel Clase, Brusdar Graterol and Félix Bautista). Only Tyler Rogers and Bryan Abreu have more holds, and Adam has also collected 24 saves in that time.
Adam has continued to produce since the Padres acquired him from Tampa Bay at the ’24 trade deadline. He took a 1.81 ERA and above-average 26% strikeout rate into tonight’s appearance. He’s the team leader in holds (29) and relief innings (64 2/3). Only closer Robert Suarez has entered in higher leverage situations on average. Losing Adam will be a big hit in the postseason, though the Padres still have an enviable group of back-end arms. The Mason Miller deadline swing takes on added importance. Suarez remains an asset in the ninth inning, while Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada are high-end setup arms.
The Padres have Adam under arbitration control for one more season. He’ll be due a decent raise on this year’s $4.8MM salary if they tender him a contract. That’d remain a bargain if he were healthy, but it’d be a tougher call if this injury winds up threatening a chunk of his 2026 season. That prognosis won’t be clear until the organization provides a return timeline. The Padres could lose Suarez to an opt-out clause this winter, and it’s possible they plan to give Miller a look as a starting pitcher next spring.
Padres To Acquire Jason Adam From Rays
The Padres acquired right-hander Jason Adam from the Rays in exchange for three prospects, per announcements from both clubs. The Padres are sending righty Dylan Lesko, outfielder Homer Bush Jr. and catcher J.D. Gonzalez to Tampa. The Friars designated right-hander Glenn Otto for assignment to open a roster spot while the Rays reinstated Jeffrey Springs from the 60-day injured list to take Adam’s spot.
Like so many other players before him, Adam bounced around the league before finally becoming his best self in Tampa. He was drafted by the Royals back in 2010 and subsequently spent time in several organizations, including the Padres, as well as the Twins, Blue Jays and Cubs. He was non-tendered by the Cubs after 2021, at that point sitting on a 4.71 earned run average through 78 1/3 major league innings. He had struck out 27.9% of batters faced but also given out walks at a high rate of 11.4%.
The Rays signed him going into 2022 and he has taken his game to another level since then. He made 170 appearances as a Ray with a 2.30 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He has 24 saves and 51 holds in that time. That includes 47 appearances this year with a 2.49 ERA. His 27.8% strikeout rate in 2024 is a few ticks below recent years but his 47.3% ground ball rate is a personal best.
All contending clubs are looking to bolster their bullpens at this time of year and that’s especially true of the Padres. Their relief corps has a combined ERA of 4.19, which places them in the bottom third of the league. They’ve received good results from Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada, Yuki Matsui and others but guys like Wandy Peralta and Enyel De Los Santos have struggled, with Peralta currently on the injured list.
Adding Adam and his skills to that relief group is understandably appealing, as is his modest salary. Though he turns 33 years old next month, his long journey to being established at the major league level has led to him having a delayed path to notable earnings. He qualified for arbitration for the first time going into 2023 as a Super Two player and made $1.775MM last year, getting a modest bump to $2.7MM here in 2024. He is eligible for two more arbitration seasons before he’s slated for free agency after 2026.
The Padres had to make significant salary cuts in the offseason, which led to Juan Soto getting trading to the Yankees. They have still attempted to field a competitive team here in 2024 and have succeeded. They are currently on a seven-game winning streak that has bumped them to 57-50 and possession of a National League Wild Card spot. But they seemingly want to avoid the competitive balance tax this year and are currently on pace to do so.
RosterResource calculates their CBT number at $225MM, roughly $12MM away from the $237MM base threshold. That appears to give them a decent amount of wiggle room but that’s an unofficial estimate. Adam has less than a $1MM left to be paid out this year, so he will only marginally increase San Diego’s CBT number, perhaps leaving the front office room for further moves.
The Rays aren’t buried in the standings but have decided to do some selling this year anyway, seemingly due to a combination of strong depth as well as a seller’s market. Their record is currently 53-52, just four games out of a playoff spot, yet they have already traded multiple established big leaguers for younger talent. They have sent Zach Eflin to the Orioles, Aaron Civale to the Brewers, Randy Arozarena to the Mariners and now Adam to the Padres.
They still have a chance to compete down the stretch but have not been shy about making these kinds of moves, seemingly content to add some young talent and save some money while trying to backfill the lost talent from within their own system. With Springs, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen nearing returns from elbow surgeries, they had readymade rotation replacements. Baz came up to take Civale’s spot and Springs is about to do the same for Eflin. Arozerena’s playing time can be given to guys like Richie Palacios or Jonny DeLuca, while the club always has intriguing bullpen arms on hand and can likely put together a solid relief corps even without Adam.
Lesko, 20, is viewed as the most intriguing part of their return in this deal. The Padres selected him 15th overall in 2022 and he has received plenty of love from prospect evaluators since then. His time in the minors has seen him miss plenty of bats but also the strike zone. He has thrown 69 2/3 innings over 16 starts at the High-A level this year with a 6.46 ERA. He has struck out 25% of batters faced but walked 16.5% of them.
Despite the control issues, he is still considered one of the better prospects in the league. FanGraphs currently lists him #88 overall and MLB Pipeline #76. Baseball America had him #38 overall coming into the year but he’s no longer on the top 100 and was recently bumped to #5 in the Padres’ system. Perhaps the Padres are moving on from a prospect that they have soured on or they have simply accepted this as the price of getting a quality reliever who is affordable and controllable. Either way, Tampa has a strong reputation of getting the best out of players and could perhaps get Lesko back on track in the years to come.
Bush is naturally the son of former big leaguer Homer Bush. The younger Bush was a fourth-round pick of the Padres last year. He is a speed-and-defense specialist with a contact-based approach at the plate. In 130 minor league games, he has seven home runs, a 9.5% walk rate and 15.7% strikeout rate, leading to a line of .290/.383/.379. He also has 65 steals in 76 tries. BA currently ranks him 12th in the Padres’ system.
Gonzalez was a third-round pick last year and BA currently ranks him #8 in the system. He is only hitting .205/.322/.230 in Single-A this year but is projected to potentially be a two-way player from behind the plate someday.
Otto was claimed off waivers in September. He began the year on the injured list with a right teres major strain. He began a rehab assignment in early June and was optioned later that month. He has tossed 15 1/3 innings in the minors this year with a 7.63 ERA. The Friars will have a few days to consider trades or put him on waivers.
The Padres have made a notable upgrade to their bullpen for the stretch run but surely aren’t done. Bob Nightengale of USA reports on X that they are now going to turn their attentions to the rotation. The Rays have already made a number of future-focused moves but could perhaps consider more, with players like Pete Fairbanks, Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz candidates to go in the coming days.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Adam was heading to the Padres on X. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN reported Lesko’s inclusion on X. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported on X that Bush and a third prospect were also going to Tampa. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first relayed Gonzalez on X.
Latest On Rays’ Deadline Approach
The Rays are among the more interesting bubble teams with the deadline eight days off. Tampa Bay entered today’s series finale with the Yankees at 50-49. They dropped the game 9-1, putting them back to .500.
Today’s loss knocked Tampa Bay five games behind the Royals, who hold the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Red Sox and Mariners also sit between the Rays and the last playoff spot. They’re 10.5 back with three teams to jump in the AL East, so it’s almost certainly Wild Card or bust. A five-game deficit certainly isn’t insurmountable, but it’s not an easy gap to close either (especially with multiple teams to jump).
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted last night that the Rays are expected to both buy and sell at the deadline. Presumably, that’d take the form of shopping players on more expensive salaries and/or a dwindling control window while exploring acquisitions of MLB-ready talent that could aid the Rays in a longer shot playoff push this season and contribute to the 2025 roster. Tampa Bay’s front office is plenty familiar with trying to strike that balance as they look to remain annually competitive despite bottom five player payrolls.
The Rays have no shortage of veterans who’d generate interest. The Rays had five players on MLBTR’s initial list of Top 50 trade candidates last week: Zack Littell, Zach Eflin, Pete Fairbanks, Randy Arozarena and Jason Adam. There’d be a ton of interest in Isaac Paredes if the Rays genuinely considered moving their All-Star third baseman. SNY’s Andy Martino wrote last week that the Rays are willing to listen on Paredes, though there’s nothing to suggest that’s more than the organization’s standard openness to talking about every player.
Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz are each making between $8MM and $9MM and would be appealing targets in a light infield market. Amed Rosario has had a nice rebound season after signing a surprisingly low $1.5MM free agent deal. He’s headed back to free agency next winter and offers multi-positional versatility and plus contact skills from the right side. Virtually every contender could squeeze him onto the roster and in their payroll ledger.
Tampa Bay certainly isn’t going to trade everyone from that group. The Rays have never been keen on completely tearing down the roster and embarking on multi-year rebuilds. They’re not far enough from the playoff mix to make that advisable regardless. Yet it’d be surprising if the Rays didn’t at least move one or two veterans. Rosario, as their only impending free agent of note, is the most obvious candidate. The front office is clearly willing to deal some players under team control beyond this season, as evidenced by their trade of starter Aaron Civale (who is eligible for arbitration for the final time next winter) to Milwaukee.
Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic wrote this morning that the Rays could be more apt to trade players who are going yearly through arbitration than to deal those playing on guaranteed contracts. Arozarena, Paredes, Littell and Adam fall into the first bucket. Fairbanks, Díaz and Lowe have signed extensions, while Eflin joined Tampa Bay on a three-year free agent deal. There’s not much difference between players on guaranteed contracts versus arbitration salaries in practice, but The Athletic writes that the Rays could feel more of an obligation to hold the players who have committed to the franchise for multiple seasons.
While that’s a possible factor, it’d be surprising if the Rays drew too rigid a distinction. Tampa Bay traded Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot — each of whom had signed an extension — to the Dodgers last winter. Glasnow’s deal sent him close to home on the West Coast and came in conjunction with another extension with L.A.; the Dodgers flipped Margot to Minnesota within a few weeks. Tampa Bay traded Blake Snell within two years of signing him to a five-year extension back in December 2020.
Eflin ($11MM), Lowe ($8.75MM) and Díaz ($8MM) have the highest salaries among players on multi-year deals. Arozarena’s $8.1MM salary is by far the highest of Tampa Bay’s group of players on arbitration deals. Eflin will make $18MM next year in the final season of his backloaded contract. Díaz is set to make $10MM next season on a deal that has a $12MM team option for 2026. The Rays hold club options on Lowe (valued at $10.5MM and $11.5MM, respectively) for the next two seasons.
Arozarena is set to go through arbitration twice more, while Paredes is eligible for arbitration through the ’27 campaign. He’ll certainly be in line for a lofty raise on this year’s $3.4MM salary. Fairbanks, Adam, Rosario and Littell are all on modest salaries; Fairbanks’ $3.666MM figure is the highest of the bunch. All but Rosario are under contract or club control for at least another season.
If the Rays ultimately straddle the line between buying and selling, they’re fairly well positioned to deal from their rotation and infield. Shane Baz’s return from Tommy John surgery was one motive for the Civale trade. The Rays could welcome back Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen over the next couple months and will get Shane McClanahan back in 2025 — perhaps lessening the sting of a deal involving Eflin or Littell. Upper level infielders like Curtis Mead and top prospect Junior Caminero could make it easier to part with Lowe. That’s arguably also true of Paredes, although it’d have been an easier sell if Caminero hadn’t had two extended injured list stints in Triple-A this year because of quad issues.
Tampa Bay doesn’t have as much long-term stability in the outfield, particularly if they move Arozarena at some point. At catcher, they’ve gotten good production this year out of Ben Rortvedt but could still look for a clearer long-term answer. Tampa Bay’s typically excellent bullpen has been an unexpected issue this season, so that’s another area where the Rays may look to add.
Jason Adam Loses Arbitration Hearing Against Rays
Reliever Jason Adam lost his arbitration hearing against the Rays, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link). He’ll make $2.7MM for the upcoming season instead of the $3.25MM his camp had been seeking.
Adam and the Rays went to a hearing for a second straight offseason. The right-hander was victorious a year ago, securing a $1.775MM salary against the club’s filing figure of $1.55MM. Things went in the opposite direction this winter, meaning Adam’s raise is a little less than $1MM relative to last year’s sum.
The 32-year-old is coming off a second consecutive very strong performance. Adam turned in a 2.98 ERA through 54 1/3 innings, an impressive follow-up to a dazzling 1.56 mark in the previous season. He punched out 31.1% of opposing hitters, held 11 leads and tallied a career-high 12 saves. An oblique strain cost him most of September and kept him off the playoff roster.
Adam has appeared in parts of six seasons but didn’t break through as a consistent high-leverage presence until landing in Tampa Bay. As a result, he only has between three and four years of MLB service. He’ll be eligible for arbitration two more times, allowing the Rays to keep him under club control until his age-35 season. Tampa Bay still has one more hearing this winter, as they’ve yet to settle on a salary for designated hitter/outfielder Harold Ramírez. That is one of five pending cases around the league; players have won seven of the 11 hearings thus far.
Requested Salary Figures For 22 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline
Today was the deadline for teams and players eligible for arbitration to exchange salary figures for the 2024 season ahead of possible arbitration hearings. And, as usual, the vast majority of eligible players worked out deals for 2024 (and, in some cases, beyond) before the deadline this afternoon. While these agreements are all listed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, unfinished business remains around the league. 22 players have not yet settled on a salary for the 2024 and are therefore at risk of having their salaries determined by an arbiter. That number is down considerably from last season, when 33 players exchanged figures. Of note, this list does not include Brewers right-hander Devin Williams. While the sides exchanged figures earlier this evening, they managed to avoid arbitration after the deadline had passed.
This year, arbitration hearings will begin on January 29th and run through February 16th, two days after pitchers and catchers are due to report for Spring Training. While there’s nothing stopping teams and players from settling to avoid arbitration between now and their hearing, the majority of clubs employ a “file and trial” approach to arbitration hearings, stopping negotiations prior to the formal exchange of figures in order to put additional pressure on players to agree to a deal early. While this approach generally puts a moratorium on discussion of one-year deals, teams are typically still willing to discuss multi-year pacts beyond today’s deadline.
Below are the 22 players who have yet to reach an agreement regarding their 2024 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salaries and the counteroffers issued by clubs. The league tends to pay close attention to arbitration salaries because outliers can serve as precedent going forward, raising the bar both for individual players and players as a whole in the future. That reality incentivizes teams to strictly stick to a “file and trial” approach in arbitration and risk a tense hearing between club and player rather than bridge even fairly minimal gaps between club and player salary figures.
[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]
14 of the league’s 30 clubs have at least one case that has yet to be settled. The Orioles have the most cases that have yet to be settled, with five players on track for a hearing against the club. That being said, it’s worth noting that Baltimore has a massive, 17-player class of arbitration-eligible players, so it’s hardly a surprise that they wound up exchanging figures with an elevated number of players. Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. submitted the highest salary figure among all players headed for a hearing at $19.9MM, while the Rangers and outfielder Adolis Garcia narrowly top Guerrero and the Blue Jays for the largest gap between figures, with $1.9MM separating Garcia’s request of $6.9MM from the Rangers’ $5MM counteroffer.
The total list, which will be updated as settlements are reached and the results of hearings are made available…
- Taylor Ward: $4.8MM in desired salary….Angels offered $4.3MM (via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand)
- Jose Suarez: $1.35MM….Angels $925K (via Feinsand)
- Mauricio Dubon: $3.5MM….Astros $3MM (via Feinsand)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: $19.9MM….Blue Jays $18.05MM (via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet)
- Tommy Edman: $6.95MM….Cardinals $6.5MM (via Feinsand)
- J.D. Davis: $6.9MM….Giants $6.55MM (via Feinsand)
- Luis Arraez: $12MM….Marlins $10.6MM (via Feinsand)
- Tanner Scott: $5.7MM….Marlins $5.15MM (via Feinsand)
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: $2.9MM….Marlins $2.625MM (via Feinsand)
- Phil Bickford: $900K….Mets $815K (via Feinsand)
- Austin Hays: $6.3MM….Orioles $5.85MM (via Feinsand)
- Ryan O’Hearn: $3.8MM….Orioles $3.2MM (via Feinsand)
- Danny Coulombe: $2.4MM….Orioles $2.2MM (via Feinsand)
- Cionel Perez: $1.4MM….Orioles $1.1MM (via Feinsand)
- Jacob Webb: $1MM….Orioles $925K (via Feinsand)
- Alec Bohm: $4MM….Phillies $3.4MM (via Feinsand)
- Adolis Garcia: $6.9MM….Rangers $5MM (via Feinsand)
- Harold Ramirez: $4.3MM….Rays $3.8MM (via Feinsand)
- Jason Adam: $3.25MM….Rays $2.7MM (via Feinsand)
- Jonathan India: $4MM….Reds $3.2MM (via The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer)
- Casey Mize: $840K….Tigers $815K (via Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic)
- Nick Gordon: $1.25MM….Twins $900K (via Feinsand)