This week's mailbag gets into whether Kyle Tucker will sign a shorter-term deal, options for the Rays at catcher, the trade value of controllable Mariners starters, the Tigers' offseason thus far, Dustin May's potential impact with the Cardinals, and much more.
Dave asks:
At this point do you think Kyle Tucker will take a high AAV deal — example: 5 years $250 million with opt outs after years 2 and 4?
I'm writing this on December 17th, and I don't think we're at that point with Tucker. It's true that long-term free agent deals usually happen in December. The last free agent deal of 8+ years that didn't happen in December was Bryce Harper in March 2019, with his 13-year deal coming a few weeks after Manny Machado's ten-year pact.
Eric Hosmer got an eight-year deal in February 2018, and Prince Fielder signed for nine years in January 2012.
That's about it, though, so if we get to the new year without a Tucker deal, the odds start shifting toward a shorter term.
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That explains MLBTR’s reliance/trust for Ken Rosenthal, Jeff Passan, and Jon Heyman-sourced rumors. I find they are the best sources, more accurate, and informative, when relaying details of completed transactions. When they engage in speculative efforts, none of them are any more insightful than an armchair GM.
I would suggest, as reliable as they have been as resources for your efforts, they should be vetted more often, particularly when they are hallucinating, not reporting.
As a former MLBTR team member, we only run their speculation 1. when the news cycle is slow, and 2. with very clear indication that it’s Rosenthal’s (or whoever’s) speculation.
Pay attention to the specific language used, and you’ll know when a rumor is based on pure conjecture or a sourced comment. For instance, Rosenthal might source that the Royals have seriously engaged on Jarren Duran. He might then speculate that the Red Sox are expect to ask for a pitcher like Cole Ragans. The MLBTR team might also offer their own speculations.
I will never understand those that complain about rumors on website called mlbtraderumors.
Ha! There’s Dusty May’s salary. Pretty expensive for somebody who has only once surpassed 100 innings (last year), is coming off a career high IP total off of an injury, had much-reduced stuff, has only once produced more than 1.0 WAR (and never more than 1.3…
The list of negs could go on and on while the positives amount to “he used to throw hard” and “he had some nice ERAs in wee-tiny samples.”
Regarding Chris Illitchs non spending. His old man really put the pedal down in terms of spending as he got older, wings had won cups under him and he was throwing money out to try to get the Tigers/himself a World Series before he passed.
Don’t think Chris will ever come close to being a top spending club. I know they have put money into non mlb roster spending (Dominican complex, scouting, analytics). But if they aren’t going to put big money into the roster with Skubals last year of control or simply give Skubal a blank cheque I think it’s a mistake. Love to see them lock in McGonigle on a pre debut extension and spend what should be savings on that contract on Skubal.
Letting Skubal leave for nothing is a fireable offense. I don’t care if they aren’t prepared to win until three years from now. You cannot just waste a prized asset. Complete idiocy if it happens.
The asset is measured in years of control, and you are “wasting” them for every single player you roster in order to help you win games.
Not if Tigers make playoffs again with him….and perhaps ownership prefers that behind the scenes talking to its POBO. They are trying to win one last time with an ace unless a deep pockets team offers a crazy return to rent him (and beg he/Boras to extend for around 400mil).
Are they really trying to win? I mean, they have many holes in the lineup and starting rotation… they’ve had them for years, yet refuse to fill them with major league talent. They will gleefully fill holes with guys like Keith and Malloy and Wenceel… Olson, Mize, Montero struggle to complete 100 innings. Flaherty is Jekyl and Hyde but mostly Edward Hyde.
Sure they are trying. ALC division teams will never be a WS champ favorite under this economic system, so why rush missing the playoffs pretty much for sure a year early? All those clubs are of mindset to win the poor division and get hot against deeper pocket clubs.
Roll with your ace and trade him at the deadline if the rest of team isn’t looking good to make it a 3rd straight year.
Charles – The vast majority of the fanbase wants to keep him and try to re-sign him next offseason. Sure it probably won’t happen and he’ll sign elsewhere, but it would still be a far better look and less backlash than giving up on the season and trading your biggest star.
As a Red Sox fan I have recent experience with the trades of Sale and Mookie. My team got basically nothing in return for both, and even though the Mookie trade was 6 years ago it’s still widely regarded as one of the worst decisions in franchise history (which is saying something!).
At least if Skubal leaves via free agency many of the fans will believe his greed had something to do with it if the Tigers made a legit effort to keep him. With a trade, only the Tigers would look bad.
I agree. I don’t know who represents McGonigal but he’s much more highly regarded than Colt Keith was and I’d be surprised if he signs a similar early extension. I’d love to be wrong.
As for Skubal, I believe the looming lockout is affecting what the Tigers do. There’s a decent chance 1-3 months of the ’27 season will be lost. By the time starting pitchers are all ramped up it could be June or July. If anybody is paying him $35-$40 million, even as the strike will reduce what they pay, Skubal will not be pitching at 100% most of that year. It may not be until 2028 that whoever has him they will get 100% Skubal.
I think Skubal could win a 3rd consecutive Cy Young this year too. His price will be even higher. If you wait until 2028 to get your money’s worth, you are not likely going to get the best Skubal….perhaps ever again.
It’s pretty likely that these past 3 years are going to be the best he’s EVER going to be.
Tigers have got to go all in this year. 2027 is the year to go win the WS.
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The Tigers should start off by extending Mize. That would be easier. I’m not too excited about locking Skubal into a longterm $400 million deal. They are reluctant to take on any free agents with Javy Baez on the books at $24 mil a year. Besides, Skubal has been an excellent value so far. You will be paying Skubal to be Cy Young for long term. What are the chances he performs at peak level for the duration of that deal? Pretty slim. Sell high.
warnbeeb: Why should they go all in this year if 2027 is the year to win the WS?
I goofed. I meant this year, 2026 was the year to go all in. MLBTR only lets you edit your post if you catch it within the 1st 5 minutes. I didn’t. Thanks for pointing it out.
You’d think the Tigers could lure in some good players with the simple sales pitch = you get to be on a team with Skubal and we’re going for it….
“…Just to pitch along with him in the rotation would be a dream……”,
quote from a recent World Series champion.
How can they not be reeling in a couple of big ones….?
“I don’t know”, recent quote from a Tigers fan…
KLOS?
Peri, is that you?
Rock on….but remember, Detroit is the home of rock and roll…..well, actually I live near AUS now…..
The Saber-toothed Superfife: Although Cleveland has the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame.
Because they aren’t interested in reeling in those big ones?
That’s ridiculous for Tucker, give me (Mets) Bellinger instead, and the Padres trade, where is it.
If that kind of contract is the case with Tucker, he will be Dodger, Blue Jay, or Mets bound. The Yankees would want to do a contract with him, with less opt outs. Tuck would be lucky to get one opt out with the Yanks. They wouldn’t have any interest in a deferred contract either. I like the idea of a shorter contract as far as years though. Tuck is definitely a great player, some team out there will definitely do well signing him.
Ryan Hanigan probably was amazed that anyone recognized him anywhere, and he likely also would be surprised to see his name here eight years after his retirement.
Everyone says Skubal is going to get 400+ million. Man I love him and he is the best starter in MLB right now. I think the 10+ year contracts are gone though.
I am of the mind that there is not going to be a 2027 season. I think the owners are going to try and break the union. And are going to be very surprised when it doesn’t break and public sentiment goes hard against them.
Now Skubal will break the 325 million in total that Yamamoto got. But 400 million? Nah. That won’t happen. 348/9 is what it probably comes to.
This was my proposal.
The Tigers buy out Skubal’s final arb year for $40 million. Then they pay him $32 per year for the next 9. That’s $328 over 10 years. Skubal gets the extra money this year instead of next because the lockout will cost him millions next year.
They can play around with deferrals.
The Tigers would want no opt out until after the 2028 season. Tigers include full no-trade clause. They are together for 3 more seasons (the 2027 one will be abbreviated). Skubal will make $72 million + whatever 2027 pays. After that he can decide if he wants the last 7 years and $224 million.
It’s the largest contract ever offered to a pitcher not named Ohtani.
Skubal will turn it down. Tigers pay him an arb salary around $19 million this year and let him go with a clear conscience.
I would like the Ms to trade for Skubal then sign him to a 9 year $370 mill contract. They can give him an opt out after the ‘29 year season. The trade would include Kirby Sloan Young and a couple more kids in their top 40.
The usual guys are not included. Cjintje Emerson etc. The package has a lot of interchangeable pieces. Then at the trade deadline they could trade Castillo to a contender for a blocked or almost ready player. This way they can insert Anderson into the mix full time. Need to see him called up for 3-4 starts or so to see how he does but should be fine. That gets Castillo’s money off the books to and goes into Skubals contract.