This week's mailbag gets into whether Kyle Tucker will sign a shorter-term deal, options for the Rays at catcher, the trade value of controllable Mariners starters, the Tigers' offseason thus far, Dustin May's potential impact with the Cardinals, and much more.
Dave asks:
At this point do you think Kyle Tucker will take a high AAV deal — example: 5 years $250 million with opt outs after years 2 and 4?
I'm writing this on December 17th, and I don't think we're at that point with Tucker. It's true that long-term free agent deals usually happen in December. The last free agent deal of 8+ years that didn't happen in December was Bryce Harper in March 2019, with his 13-year deal coming a few weeks after Manny Machado's ten-year pact.
Eric Hosmer got an eight-year deal in February 2018, and Prince Fielder signed for nine years in January 2012.
That's about it, though, so if we get to the new year without a Tucker deal, the odds start shifting toward a shorter term.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
That explains MLBTR’s reliance/trust for Ken Rosenthal, Jeff Passan, and Jon Heyman-sourced rumors. I find they are the best sources, more accurate, and informative, when relaying details of completed transactions. When they engage in speculative efforts, none of them are any more insightful than an armchair GM.
I would suggest, as reliable as they have been as resources for your efforts, they should be vetted more often, particularly when they are hallucinating, not reporting.
As a former MLBTR team member, we only run their speculation 1. when the news cycle is slow, and 2. with very clear indication that it’s Rosenthal’s (or whoever’s) speculation.
Pay attention to the specific language used, and you’ll know when a rumor is based on pure conjecture or a sourced comment. For instance, Rosenthal might source that the Royals have seriously engaged on Jarren Duran. He might then speculate that the Red Sox are expect to ask for a pitcher like Cole Ragans. The MLBTR team might also offer their own speculations.
Ha! There’s Dusty May’s salary. Pretty expensive for somebody who has only once surpassed 100 innings (last year), is coming off a career high IP total off of an injury, had much-reduced stuff, has only once produced more than 1.0 WAR (and never more than 1.3…
The list of negs could go on and on while the positives amount to “he used to throw hard” and “he had some nice ERAs in wee-tiny samples.”