This week's mailbag gets into the Pirates' third base situation, the best shortstop of 2026, projections for Kazuma Okamoto and Cody Ponce, and thoughts on the Nationals, Cardinals, and Mets.
Don asks:
Is Isaac Paredes the Pirates' best option for a trade upgrade at third base? What might that cost be in prospects/players?
John asks:
I think the Pirates should give some serious prospects up to acquire CJ; the Bucs seem to be one bat short. What do you think? Will Jared Jones do it?
Jared Triolo is the projected starter at the hot corner for the Pirates. The 28-year-old won a utility player Gold Glove in 2024 and will play a strong third base. It's a position where a 96 wRC+ at the plate is average, and Triolo projects around 90. He was able to cut his strikeout rate last year, but hasn't really shown any power since A-ball.
Triolo is a 2-WAR guy per 650 PA. Total value-wise, he's arguably on par with offensive-minded additions Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn. It's just easier to get excited about a 30-homer bat like Lowe, even when he gives a ton of his value back as one of the worst defensive second basemen in the game. And Triolo is making near the league minimum, not eight figures.
I went into this exercise thinking Triolo would be one of the game's worst regular third basemen, but I didn't realize how bleak that landscape is. On a per 650 PA basis - which is quite generous to injury-prone "regulars" such Royce Lewis and Yoan Moncada - Triolo's 2.0 WAR projection from The Bat X ranks 18th. There's no real reason to think guys like Caleb Durbin or Nolan Arenado will out-perform Triolo this year.
Of the three players directly ahead of Triolo - so close as to be considered a wash - two of them are Alec Bohm and Paredes. They both seemed somewhat available this winter, and they make a lot more money than Triolo, but they're not clearly better.
I'd say 14 third basemen represent a clear upgrade on Triolo for 2026. Here they are along with thoughts on whether the Pirates could've acquired them:
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I’d certainly take Durbin over Triolo but the two are decent comps. Durbin’s 2025 is very likely Triolo’s ceiling though and he has more swing and miss in his game.
Triolo is unlikely to get 47 starts at SS this year as well. Playing SS well obviously will boost that dWAR value. Not as much at 3B.
Bregman came up as an undersized shortstop and moved to 3b to play aside Correa. Breggy turned himself into a borderline elite third base glove man.
People like to use the word “elite” a little too much. Baseball-Reference views Bregman as a clearly positive defender (~6 wins). But that’s cumulative over 10 years. That’s not elite IMO. FanGraphs rates him closer to average-to-slightly above average (28 runs above average = ~3 wins). That’s definitely not elite.
Fair enough, I would argue Bregman was a “Plus” 3b for several years. Then he had a season where his throwing accuracy wandered. Then he left the Astros and I stopped watching him every day. End of analysis.
Arenado averaged ~2.0 dWAR per season over his first decade — elite for a third baseman. His peak defensive seasons by bWAR were 2013 (3.6) and 2015–2017 (~2.2–2.3). Over the decade he accumulated over +100 defensive runs by FanGraphs, reinforcing his reputation as one of the best defensive third basemen of the era. Adrián Beltré, Scott Rolen, and Brooks Robinson were elite. Bregman, not so much.
Always neat seeing what’s dug out of the mailbag!
Mention of Toby harrah. Looking at his stats: 2 years of war @ 6.6 and 7.1. Yet his stats(O&D) don’t really jump out.
145 & 143 OPS+ those two years, one at SS for 159 games and one at 3B for 162 games when he hit like 2025 Ketel Marte.
Absolutely amazing – and deserving – that Volpe is not even mentioned among the 20+ SS you talked about in that question. Someone needs to put this on Cashmans desk and tell him to get to work immediately!
any conversation on the Nats has to acknowledge that the farm system was depleted and ignored in order to go for it in the 2010’s. an owner in his mid eighties wanted a title in is lifetime. when it came time to rebuild the transition was too slow and combined with the failure to embrace analytics meant starting over, again.
this is an entirely different model, it will take a while but it wil be very interesting to watch.
Agree! Ownership’s unwillingness to spend on players is beyond frustrating, but the all-in embrace of analytics provides hope. Now the Lerners need to sell the team to a person or group that wants to win.
Pirates should trade for Royce Lewis, need a thirdbaseman with talent but risk.
Really enjoyed this mailbag. Good combination of real thought and humor