The Pirates traded back-end starter Johan Oviedo to the Red Sox tonight, getting rookie outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia back as part of a five-player deal. Garcia immediately becomes the favorite to start the season in left field, but the Bucs undoubtedly have more lineup acquisitions on the way.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Pirates remain open to offers on their starters — obviously excepting Paul Skenes, whom general manager Ben Cherington has already declared will not be moved. That wouldn’t be for prospects, as the goal would be to swap pitching for offense. Cherington and his front office have made a few trades of that type over the past year and a half. In addition to the Oviedo/Garcia deal, they swapped Quinn Priester for Nick Yorke at the 2024 deadline and flipped Luis Ortiz and a pair of pitching prospects for Spencer Horwitz last winter. The Horwitz deal looks the far better of the previous two trades.
It seems safe to assume the Pirates aren’t trading Jared Jones, a potential top-of-the-rotation arm who is midway through rehabbing elbow surgery. Bubba Chandler is arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball right now. It’d be almost as surprising to see him moved. Even with Oviedo headed to Boston, the Bucs have a few intriguing possibilities.
Mitch Keller is the most straightforward trade candidate. He has been in trade rumors for years, though that was generally about Pittsburgh being in a rebuild. It’s a different situation now that the goal is to build a playoff-caliber lineup for next season. Keller is a solid mid-rotation starter whose production has tailed off in the second half of three consecutive years. He has been a durable source of innings with a low-4.00s ERA overall. He attacks the strike zone and has solid velocity but doesn’t miss many bats. At age 30, it’s unlikely he’ll jump from a #3/4 starter to become an ace.
Keller is signed for three seasons. He’ll make $16.5MM next season, following by respective $18MM and $20MM salaries. He’s the highest-paid player on the team, but that doesn’t appear to be as big an issue this offseason as it might normally be. The Pirates are reportedly open to being more aggressive in adding mid-tier free agent hitters. They’d obviously have more payroll space if they move Keller, but the contract isn’t forcing him out the door.
There should be some surplus value. Keller would probably top three years and $54.5MM if he were a free agent. It’s not a huge bargain, though, as his open market value might be in the $65-75MM range. The Pirates would be more likely to get an established hitter with multiple years of control if they were willing to trade one of their younger arms. Braxton Ashcraft and Mike Burrows would be particularly valuable.
Ashcraft thrived in a multi-inning relief role as a rookie. The 26-year-old righty struck out 24.3% of batters faced while pitching to a 2.71 ERA across 69 2/3 innings. He sat around 97 MPH with his fastballs while throwing a pair of power breaking pitches. He’s likely to get a rotation spot next season and has six years of club control.
Burrows, also 26, has yet to reach one full year of service either. He sits around 95 MPH with his fastball and has a four-pitch mix. Burrows punched out 24.1% of opponents while working to a 3.94 earned run average through 96 frames. He held a rotation spot from late May through the end of the season.
Pittsburgh would get no shortage of interest in Burrows and Ashcraft. The Diamondbacks (Jordan Lawlar), Angels (Christian Moore), Giants (Bryce Eldridge) and Orioles (Dylan Beavers, Coby Mayo) are all in the market for starting pitching and have highly-touted hitting prospects who have yet to establish themselves in MLB.
The pitching pipeline extends even further. Hunter Barco, Antwone Kelly, Wilber Dotel and Thomas Harrington are all on the 40-man roster. The first three all rank among the organization’s top 10 prospects at Baseball America. Harrington might be more of a depth arm, but all four pitchers should have fans in other clubs’ scouting departments. The Pirates added another high-octane arm to the system last summer, drafting high school righty Seth Hernandez sixth overall. He’s years away and comes with the standard risks for any teenage pitcher but offers another potential impact starter in the future.
I imagine Paul refreshing mlbtr every few minutes every night praying to get dealt.
The Dodgers would give an exceptional trade package for him. Could definitely be exciting. For Dodgers fans at least.
Paul has enough intelligence to know he isn’t getting traded this offer season.
don’t let your imagination fool you , Skenes has repeatedly said that he doesn’t want traded, he wants to win with the Bucs
They all say they until they realize their team isn’t going to win anything with or without them.
That los Angeles smog must of finally made dodgers fans brains turn to jelly. They like Yankees fans think thst every superstar will get traded to them. Talk about entitled karens
Conspiracies,
LA smog isn’t really a thing these days. I personally don’t think the Dodgers will get everyone they go after. But they do have the number one farm system to trade from. Along with major league talent they could offer. And the ability to add cash to a deal if needed.
So yes, I think if they want a player bad enough, they are more likely to get that player than most teams.
My opinion is based on facts, not conspiracy theories.
Well first off I guess dodgers fans can’t take sarcasm. And skenes isn’t going anywhere
I didn’t realize you had redefined sarcasm in your mind.
Btc: Firstly, stop making me agree with a Dodgers’ fan. Secondly, anyone who’s followed baseball over the years will notice a pattern. Rookies come up and are eager to win with the team that, “believed in them.” After four or five years of not winning that attitude tends to change. That’s just human nature. Despite the proclamations of my ex nobody wants to be a loser long-term.
I don’t think one can extrapolate from that reality the assumption that fans of large-market teams expect to get every superstar. Sure some do but hey, there’s insufferable people everywhere.
Dodgers prospects have issues as well. They get blocked from the big club because of their depth.
They want to play for the Dodgers, but might spend additional years in the minors because they are blocked. Michael Busch is a prime example. He was extremely well regarded, and we’ll liked, in the organization but was blocked. He spent an extra couple years in the minors when he could have started for many teams.
When they finally traded him, everyone was happy he was getting his opportunity and rooted for his success. He deserves it. And he probably harbors some understandable frustration at starting his major league career late because of the situation.
There are other examples, but he’s the easiest to explain.
Trade Keller for prospects then reinvest the money into the lineup
They have enough money to do that now. I am old school and still value a dependable workhorse starter. The whole rotation, sans Skenes, are guys with very little MLB experience regardless of their ceilings. Unless they like their chances of signing a cheap starter for a year to hold down the fort.
Yes if they trade Keller they will need to sign or trade for a starter. Likely won’t be as good as Keller.
Or they can actually sign a free agent who will cost nothing from your team?? I would like to see one more deal and not have “password” be seen as the answer. Still need an infielder and an outfielder, sign one, trade for another. Or just sign both???
Polanco and O’Hearn are great FA fits. Neither should cost upwards of 20M. No reason not to come away without one of them.
This team has never signed a free agent to a multi-year deal…. unless you count the 2yr deal they gave Russell Martin about 13yrs ago. (Liriano went to free agency but wanted to come back here, but that was also eons ago). So let’s not expect a sudden splash in free agency.
The most realistic path to winning with Skenes these next couple years is to trade the other controllable high ceiling starters for position players and then possibly extend them (which management has done with position players because its a safer investment than pitching). Lets see what Jones can bring back. Or even Chandler. Trading these periphery starters like Oviedo (and Ortiz last year) for barely avg players isnt going to build a winner.
The Bucs have done well finding guys like Oveido, Falter, etc., who can be just as effective as a highly touted prospect in a big ballpark.
Stupid me actually thinks they are going to make a splash at that level this off-season, but that alone isnt enough to create a playoff contending lineup. They probably are going to need to trade from their rotation to have a shot.
They tried to sign Happ allegedly. Did sign Nova.
2 reasons why they don’t sign free agents for multiple years.
1 Extending your own players is a much better option and they done a ton of that at least as much as market allowed.
2 There was no opportunity to. 2018 was a reload year. They did better than anticipated.
2019 They had Archer already from 2018 and they knew what they had so no reason to spend $.
2020 21 22 Full rebuild which was desperately needed and there wasn’t any $ to spend.
2023 Huntington didn’t leave them the farm system to go all in and there was a lot of 1 year options available that fit perfect.
2024 same as 2023. And both years not a lot of obvious free agents trades to be had.
2025 Speaking of there was absolutely nothing in free agency or trade. Brutal year. Can’t spend $ if there is nothing to spend it on.
2026 there are a lot of obvious options. Schwarber JTR Polanco Suarez. 4 is a lot. Plus trades. Lowe Kwan. Don’t know what the cost is yet but it at least looks promising.
Anytime Nutting should have spent he did. But it’s been a decade so we will see. His attendance and TV deal isn’t what it was in the wild card years. Although ironically spending would solve both of those problems. Many times you gotta spend $ to make $.
2018 they had just climbed over .500. They also gave up a haul at that years deadline for Archer those 2 alone are absolutely enough to have invested in the team at that time.
You can try and fool yourself all you want but the reality is Nuting only uses the franchise to enrich himself.
Extending your players is the better option if you have enough talented players to extend. I’ve just never seen a baseball team that’s managed to develop an entire roster, or even most of it, internally.
Pirates have. They couldn’t possibly extend all their young talent. Obviously will still sign some free agents to keep pa and fans content.
Will they actually sign one to more than a one year deal?
They always have in past and reports are they are interested in doing so. So yes should be the answer.
Winter meetings start next week, when the majority of free agent signings and trades are made
@TheMan Did Nutting miss Winter Mwwtings for over 10 years? Is that why he hasnt signed even one player to a multi yr free agent deal?
@TheGreat They are not going to lure the top free agents obviously. However they cam do what most other clubs do and sign guys looking to bounce back to 2 or 3 year deals. If the players bounce back you trade them at the deadline for an infuse of young talent. This is a tried and true method that mist rebuilding teams engage in. This however costs a little bit of $ and prying pennies from Nutting’s hands is a monumental task.
Agree to an extent. You may find a FA that sees our pitching as a rare occurrence and would like to be part of that team. Kelly as a manager is no turn-off. Getting rid of Keller?? I say keep him, only trading Mitch as a last resort.
Keller seems like the sort of player the Braves might go after. They don’t have any stud hitting prospects that I know of, but maybe a couple of mid-level prospects would be enough.
Mid level prospects for a #2 #3 under contract for 3 years come on now
Statistically he’s a low end #3 or a #4 that another team would have to play slightly less than market rate for. It’s probably mid tier major league ready offense or slightly higher end guys that are a year out. Based on the article I would guess the pirates are looking for guys that can contribute now. Point is I think mid tier prospects (non-top 100, maybe 3-10 in an org) that are major league ready get it done
Depends what statistics you are looking at. Mine he’s a 2 3.
Pirates asking price was as a 2 3. They asked teams for a top 20 30 prospect. Well other teams asked. Pirates weren’t actively trying to trade him. Not trying to trade him now. They plan on him being in the 2026 rotation. But they’ll listen on anyone.
I think his value is 2 top 100 or 1 top 50 with some quality quantity. Obviously a young good not great mlb player if anyone has one of them laying around.
Pirates don’t have to and don’t want to trade Keller. But for a mlb bat or great prospect they will. Preferably sooner so they can replace him.
What metrics make him a 2? I’m curious about that one
There was only one top 100 prospect traded at the deadline. Those guys rarely get moved anymore. For a top 100 guy I would think you’d need to be trading a guy pre-arbitration where you’re getting a huge discount from a cost standpoint.
But yeah they don’t have to trade him for that. If they want to keep him they can keep him. But I’m fairly confident that’s his realistic value on the trade market based on performance, age, contract. The A’s got Jeffrey springs and Jacob Lopez last offseason for even less (A fringe mlb arm with upside, two prospects outside their top 20). Springs had some injury concerns but was less expensive and highly productive.
We’ll see…
He’s a solid number 3 who projects to decline from there. He is below market so there’s some value. I could see a back end/fringe top 100 being in the mix but more likely would just be a swap for the position player equivalent or prospects that are close to major league ready role players. They could do a very non-pirates thing and eat some contract to sweeten the return but my guess is its more of a swap for a similar player or a tier below with more control. The issue is that potentially creates new problems needing to replace him. They project a bit below average as a team so a chance is there to creep into a wildcard berth, but probably better looking for roster crunch victims and other dumpster diving targets than moving chairs around, unless they wanted to get all spendy, which seems unlikely
2025 he pitched 25 games where he went at least 5 innings and gave up 4 runs or fewer. Nice chunk of those 6 7 innings. That’s what teams are looking for. Pitching well enough to win games. The few games you didn’t have any pitches working they don’t care about. Like wise the game you had everything working and the shadows were perfect they don’t care. What you do the majority of the time is what they want.
Even more importantly they don’t care what he did as a Pirate at all. They only care about what he will do with them. As a Pirate he wasn’t a #2. For another team that knows what they are doing he can be a #2.
Teams are happy to get 25 starts period. This guy gives you 25 quality starts.
Top 100 prospects are easily traded. It’s top 10 that is scarce top 20 rare.
You perfectly described what teams consider a low end 3 or a 4. Looks like we just have different definitions of the same thing, which is fine.
I did no such thing
If you are going to post at least know what you are talking about.
#1 Oviedo is under contract for 2 years.
#2 Password is a top 100 prospect. That is not “mid.”
That said, I have seen some reports that the pitcher coming from BOS ranked as high as 15th in a deep farm system.
I don’t know if this is in response to me because it addresses a trade I didn’t talk about, but the Oviedo trade is different and a lot more muddy than what I proposed. There are more players going from Pittsburg to Boston than the other way around, meaning it’s not a 1 for 1 swap password for Oviedo. Also the contract aspect is completely different for Oviedo than Keller. Also password was completely blocked in the Red Sox system, which probably gave the pirates some leverage.
Also “know what you’re talking about if you’re going to post” lol.
1. I’m pretty informed if this actually was responding to me.
2. I didn’t say “mid” I said mid level and defined that as not top 100 or 3-10 in an org which I think is correct for Keller. Could be multiple guys
3. The bar on here of ball knowledge is pretty low lol I don’t think that’s a requirement
Try grabbing an up and coming outfielder or two from the A’s, they have a logjam building up in Sacramento
I was thinking the same thing. For Keller with his contract I would think a player like Colby Thomas plus one other piece would get it done.
Good start to off season. Keep going. Trades free agency everything should be on the table.
#1 free agent combos
Schwarber Suarez
Schwarber JTR
Polanco Suarez
Polanco JTR
Trades I like Lowe
I heard back in summer Nutting was going all in. Recently it has been reported all over the place. Hope it’s true. And every time the Pirates should have been in hard and options were available Nutting has come through.
Should have traded Keller last season. Three straight years now, he’s been excellent out of the gate, only to collapse in the second half. Unless they get a solid offer right now, it might be a good idea to see if he comes out pitching well again, then sell high.
3.45 era from August 20th until end of season so if that’s collapse I’ll take it.
3.52 era June 6th to August 12th.
Seems it was more of a August 13th to August 19th collapse. 2nd half collapse!!!!!! Is more of a Karen drama queen view on it.
in 12 starts after the all star break he had a 5.65 ERA. Compared to a 3.48 ERA in 20 starts before the break.
Ashcraft and Burrows sound like the kind of guys the Dbacks might target – major league ready, inexpensive and controllable. I dont know what positions the Pirates are looking to fill, but the Dbacks have plenty of positional prospects that are major league ready or near major league ready – Lawler, Alexander, Tawa, Waldschmidt, Troy, etc.
They’ll take someone at any position.
Mitch Keller is a 4-5th starter why did the choose this guy of alllll the guys to come thru there to pay?
Because the Athletic wrote an article detailing how cheap Nutting is. Keller got extended a couple days after that article came out.
The real headscratcher to me is Reynolds, at least the Keller deal they can get out from, the Reynolds one is already underwater, and they got a long way to go.
Keller is a 2 3 and a absolute bargain.
Pirates have plenty of $. Enough to give Skenes KG 150 200 each. By the time their numbers get big Keller Reynolds will be coming off the books or can be traded sooner.
This team can have 4 solid starters – something many others teams can’t boast. A few bucks into some offensive free agents and they could compete. If they really want to balance out the team – move Skenes now and take someone’s top ten prospects in doing so – hoping to hit on the off them, if possibly more. Red Sox, Mets, Tigers are three to start off it.
Actually they have Skenes the best or 2nd best pitcher in baseball. Bubba the best prospect in baseball who could easily be a 2. Keller a weak 2. SH the best hs prospect I ever seen the 2nd best pitching prospect in baseball. Then they have 4 solids.
If they sign any 2 of the Philly Seattle guys they are projected as a playoff team. Or just 1 of the 4 and trade for a Lowe Kwan or something of that level.
They have 30m to spend. 45m If they sign Schwarber. See what Nutting does. He has never failed to spend (100m ish) every time that it was needed. Never had so little attendance and TV deal as now though. I been hearing for 5 or 6 months he’s going to spend. Again spending for Nutting more than 80 million so 90 95 100
Nutting has never failed to spend when needed? Is this opposite day?
The Pirates were in the playoff hunt at the deadline in 2024 and took on IKFs contract but only if they traded Martin Perez. The same owner who claimed he lost $2MM that season and now has cash to spend??
C’mon now.
Who gives a it about Martin Perez. Yes Pirates have 20 30 million to spend.
I’m not trying to be an a-hole but is there any chance the Pirates compete this year? Next year?
I grew up watching Bonds leading the Pirates to the brink. Why are we all agreeing to designating the Pirates as a minor league affiliate to the major market teams (Yankees included).
Pittsburgh is one of the best places in the world to see a baseball game…let’s stop the crap and put out a contender. Absolutely no reason at all they shouldn’t be ready to compete.
There’s 4 free agents available that the Pirates could sign any 2 of and they could be just as good as your Yankees. Or sign 1 and trade for 1 or trade for 2. They have the payroll space and the farm system to easily do either.
And they have competed. 2023 they had a winning roster but lost 3 starters from rotation right at the beginning. 1 spring training tj. 1 just lost his stuff. 1 made 7 or 8 starts out for season. Previous gm didn’t leave a farm system to replace them which most teams wouldn’t have been able to. Also Choi who actually was good hurt missed pretty much entire season and more importantly Cruz who looked great broke his ankle like 1st or 2nd week.
2024 they were a few games out of wild card at deadline winning record. Setup guy and closer just fell apart. Awful manager. And there was no desperately needed bats available for them at trade deadline. And IKF Cruz who they did trade for played probably their 2 worst months of baseball in their life.
Unfortunately I think most teams learned their lesson from the Hershel Walker trade. Besides Skenes talents you got the pr marketing sponsorships. SD would do it if they had the owner and farm still. Soto was a huge trade.
It couldn’t be top 100 prospects it needs to be like can’t miss as can’t miss as you can get elite talent. And they already have that with Skenes Bubba KG SH. Burrows Ashcraft Jones Barco would all be top 100 guys if prospects Barco is.
And when if they trade Skenes with 2 years left it will be a huge return. A much less proven Crochet got 2 top 50s. 1 year of a declining k rate Burnes got 2 top 100. You need a serious farm system and will to destroy the top of it to get 4 years of Skenes.
More importantly the time to win is 2026. Maybe more importantly the Pirates can get a starting pitcher in just about any and every draft. 2020 Jones 21 Bubba 22 Barco 23 Skenes 24 tbd but I liked Sterling 2025 SH It’s a never ending supply if you can develop pitching. Then you trade these guys for more prospects something the Pirates haven’t been successful at. More reason for them not to trade Skenes until Cherington shows better results or they hire a new gm.
Pirates if they traded Keller would trade to the smart teams that realize he is a 2 or at least strong 3 and have plenty of $ to take on 17m or whatever he makes.
I don’t think Keller has any real trade value. His contract to me is right about what he gives you.
A team could just sign Kelly for that money perhaps even less and get the same or better production.
Could they trade him and get something in return? Of course but more like a flyer or two than a top hitting prospect. Unless the Pirates just want to save the Keller money for some free agent upgrades I just don’t see them trading him. Given what I expect them to get in return his most value is staying with the Pirates.
Keller is the type of starter a lot of teams need but he is paid about what he is worth already. 15/18/20m is still a good amount of money. He is not a 25m per year starter. Pirates could eat a little money and get something of value back as well.
Trade Burrows, Keller and Harrington and keep the rest
The Pirates could’ve gotten Duran for under $8m and dealt a better SP than Oviedo to the Red Sox. What type of offense are you getting back if Nutting won’t even spend $8m?
This has got to end. Although it will never happen, the next CBA should only be about a salary floor, not cap!
How could they have gotten Duran for 8M?
Jim – according to almost all mlb sources the Sox are shopping Duran.
I don’t know if the Sox would be interested in a better SP, like Jones, rather than Oviedo.
But, for the sake of argument let’s say they were. So, the trade ends up being Duran for Jones (give or take a prospect) Jones is set to make about $800k, Duran about $8m, and still has team control past 2026
The result of that trade is, the Pirates get an OF that can hit and run, plays with passion. The Sox get a high upside controllable arm, a seeming win-win trade.
The Pirates (in this hypothetical) would need to absorb about $7m, but their offense is instantly better. Voila
Nutting is not spending $7m
Instead of spending on Imai, NYY should go for Keller imo. Not as exciting, but the cost in prospects won’t be too much imo as he’s already experienced a decline.
Thank you Mitch Keller for everything you’ve done for the Pirates however it’s time they move for someone that can help the team offensively.
I don’t see the Pirates trading Skenes. They have four more years of control and in these four years, the Pirates will have a conga line of prospects coming up, including Bubba Chandler. That would be an elite one-two punch in the rotation. Now, if they trade him for prospects, it will reveal a scam. It’s not about building a winning team with prospects, it’s about collecting the tax penalty revenue. There are nine teams who will have a payroll of less than $100 million and 16 with less then $150 million. Along with the pirates, the Marlins, White Sox, A’s, Cleveland, Nationals and others are content will being in a perpetual build stage.. The Nationals traded Soto to get prospects and now they are trying to trade these prospects. The reason this is happening is not the lack of revenue, but the incessant need to pay shareholder dividends. Lots of sports teams are owned by Corporations and like most corporations, the product and the customers don’t mean anything. Baseball is like the failing fast food restaurants who keep raising prices and putting out crap for a product. They cut back on ingredients and labor to make those unrealistic projections to make dividend payments. MLB needs a hard minimum so owners don’t just collect profits.
Would the Pirates say no to this:
Pirates get: Cam Schlittler, Spencer Jones & Jasson Domínguests
Yankees get: Paul Skenes
Easiest no as it gets.
Both those bats project as just guys. If you can cut back on Jones K rate he is something really good but pirates have no idea how to do that.