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Which Arms Could The Pirates *Actually* Trade This Summer?

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This week's report that there's "no chance" the Pirates trade ace Paul Skenes, just one and a half seasons into his six-year window of club control, stood out as fairly obvious for most onlookers. That anyone felt it needed to be said at all was more a reflection on the organization as a whole than Skenes himself.

Pittsburgh has taken a step back this season, sitting on pace to win 56 games after winning 76 games in both 2023 and 2024. A rebuild that has seen the Bucs pick ninth or better in five consecutive drafts, including No. 1 overall in 2021 and 2023, has not only failed to produce a contender -- it's failed to even produce a farm system that ranks in the top third of MLB. The team at Baseball America ranked the Pirates with MLB's 16th-best system prior to this season. Keith Law of The Athletic did the same. MLB.com's trio of Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo and Sam Dykstra ranked the Bucs 14th. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel was more bearish, ranking them 20th.

The Pirates already fired manager Derek Shelton. General manager Ben Cherington can't feel as secure as he did a few seasons ago. Owner Bob Nutting bears the brunt of the blame; his refusal to invest in the roster leaves the front office and coaching staff zero margin for error. Nutting's overwhelmingly frugal nature also leaves veritably no chance that Skenes will be signed long-term.

Just because a trade at some point down the road feels inevitable, however, does not mean it'll happen this year. That's never seemed likely, and while the "no way, no chance, no how" quote was from a Pirates executive who preferred to remain anonymous rather than place their name on those words, GM Ben Cherington soon offered a similar sentiment on the record.

The Pirates, for all their warts, are still a pitching-rich organization. The name at the very top of the pyramid may not be on the move, but the Pirates will have no shortage of pitchers who are legitimately available this summer. There's always a broad range of "availability." Pure veteran rentals will probably be aggressively shopped. Pitchers signed/controlled through 2026 will presumably be available but with a higher price tag. And there will be some arms with even more club control on whom the Bucs will listen but not outright dangle to contenders seeking to bolster their own staffs.

Let's run through some of the likely available inventory.

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Pirates Option David Bednar

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The Pirates announced that they have optioned right-hander David Bednar to Triple-A Indianapolis and designated catcher Jason Delay for assignment. Those are the corresponding moves to add pitching prospect Thomas Harrington, a move which was reported earlier today.

The move highlights what a recent struggle it’s been for Bednar, who was once one of the most dominant closers in the league. From 2021 to 2023, he made 172 appearances for the Pirates. He had a 2.25 earned run average, 31.2% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He gradually took over the ninth inning in Pittsburgh in that time, with three saves in 2021, 19 the year after and then 39 in 2023.

That production would have been exciting for any club but it was enhanced by the “local kid makes good” angle. Bednar was born in Pittsburgh, went to Mars Area High School and attended Lafayette College in Easton, Pennsylvania. He was drafted by the Padres but made his way to his hometown club in January of 2021, just before his breakout, as part of the three-team trade that sent Joe Musgrove to San Diego.

But he’s been on a downward slide since then. He posted a 5.77 ERA for the Bucs last year. His strikeout rate fell to 22.1% and his walk rate climbed to 10.7%. He lost the closer’s role for the final month of the season.

His first three appearances in 2025 have gone poorly. On Opening Day against the Marlins, he was put into the bottom of the 9th in a 4-4 game. He allowed a triple, issued an intentional walk and then allowed a walk-off single. He got another chance the next day, getting the ninth with the Bucs up 4-1. A walk and a homer quickly made it 4-3, though Bednar then got three outs to record the save. On Sunday, he was again put into tie game in the ninth. A single, stolen base, throwing error and wild pitch quickly led to another loss.

It’s a frustrating mystery for Bednar and the Pirates, as his stuff doesn’t seem to have lost any zip. He averaged 96.6 miles per hour on his fastball in 2023 with opponents batting .188 and slugging .315 against it. Last year, his velo actually ticked up to 97.2 mph but the pitch allowed a .256 batting average and .459 slug. His splitter and curve didn’t seem to lose any velo either.

Bednar and the team have presumably been trying to find an explanation for his struggles without coming up with a clear solution, so the Bucs have taken the step of sending him to Indianapolis, perhaps with the idea of him having a chance to get into a good groove away from the pressures of the big leagues. In Bednar’s stead, the closing duties will perhaps fall to someone like Colin Holderman or Dennis Santana.

The move isn’t likely to impact Bednar’s trajectory to free agency. He came into this season with his service clock at four years and 76 days. That’s 96 days shy of the five-year mark and he’s already added five more days this year. That means he needs about three more months in the majors to get over that line. Assuming he gets beyond five years at some point here in 2025, he would have just one season of club control remaining.

If he stays down for longer than that, the Bucs could theoretically gain another year. But in that scenario, he likely didn’t pitch well in the minors, meaning they probably wouldn’t tender him an arbitration contract since he is making $5.9MM this year. The arbitration system is set up so that salaries almost never go down, even with poor performance.

It will surely lead to plenty of “what-if” questions. The Bucs haven’t been competitive for most of the recent past, so Bednar’s name came in a trade rumors from time to time. The Pirates never clicked on any deal. In hindsight, plenty will say that they should have taken whatever offers were on the table, but it’s hard to fathom anyone foreseeing this quick downfall.

Delay, 30, has seen a decent amount of time as Pittsburgh’s backup catcher in recent years. From 2022 to 2024, he hit .231/.295/.315 in 134 games with solid glovework. However, the catching depth for the club has become more crowded. Endy Rodríguez missed all of 2024 recovering from UCL surgery but is now back. While he was gone, the club took a flier on Joey Bart and saw him break out. Between those two and former first overall pick Henry Davis, Delay was likely fourth on the depth chart.

The Bucs will now have a maximum of one week of DFA limbo to figure out what’s next. The waiver process takes 48 hours so any trade possibilities would have to come together in the next five days. Delay still has options and hasn’t yet reached arbitration, so he could be an affordable depth addition for a club looking to bolster its catching corps.

Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images

Pirates To Select Thomas Harrington

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The Pirates are poised to promote right-hander Thomas Harrington to the majors for today’s start against the Rays in Tampa, according to a report from Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Harrington is not yet on the 40-man roster, so the club will need to make a corresponding move to open up a spot for Harrington before he can officially be selected.

Harrington, 23, was a first-round pick by the Pirates in the 2022 draft. He was the 36th selection in the draft, the Pirates’ second pick after infielder Termarr Johnson went number four overall. After he posted an impressive 2.53 ERA and 30% strikeout rate in 15 starts for Campbell during his draft year, the Pirates held off on putting Harrington in pro games until 2023. He more or less picked up right where he left off despite the layoff with a 2.77 ERA and 26.7% strikeout rate in eight starts at the Single-A level. That got him a quick promotion to High-A, where he faced a bit more adversity but still managed a solid 3.87 ERA in 127 1/3 innings across 18 starts while punching out 28.2% of his opponents.

The right-hander built on that solid first season as a pro with a dominant one in 2024. Though a rotator cuff injury cost him some of his 2024 campaign, Harrington made the most of his opportunities when he was healthy enough to take the mound, with an incredible 2.24 ERA and a 27.4% strikeout rate in 68 1/3 innings of work at the Double-A level. That earned him a promotion to Triple-A, where his strikeout rate dropped to just 21.2% but he nonetheless managed to post a solid 3.33 ERA across eight starts. Harrington’s breakout performance last season and success at the highest level of the minors put him on the radar for a big league debut this year, and he’s now set to get that opportunity later today.

The righty’s strong performance in 2024 was also enough to make him a consensus top-100 prospect, rated as the #74 prospect in the sport by Baseball America and #79 by MLB Pipeline at the outset of the 2025 season. He’s since moved up a spot on both lists following the graduation of Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews yesterday. Harrington features a deep pitch mix headlined by a fastball that tops out at 95mph and an above-average slider, though he also features a cutter and curveball, both of which grade out as roughly average. The main selling point of Harrington’s overall package is pinpoint control, however; he walked just eight batters in 46 innings at Triple-A last year and has a tidy 6.1% walk rate across all levels of the minors.

When Jared Jones went on the injured list to open the season, Harrington was in the mix for the fifth starter job with the Pirates but ultimately lost out to right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski, a former first-round pick in his own right with a 2.91 ERA in 86 1/3 career innings at the big league level entering the 2025 season. With that being said, it still did not take long for Harrington’s call to the big leagues to occur. It’s unclear whether today’s appearance will strictly be a spot start for the youngster or a more significant opportunity, though it should be noted that Mlodzinski surrendered four runs on seven hits and two walks in 3 2/3 innings of work during his first start of the season last night.

That’s the sort of performance that could, at least in theory, open the door for Harrington to claim a rotation spot with a dominant outing. As a consensus top-100 prospect called up in the early days of the season, Harrington would be eligible to earn the Pirates a prospect promotion incentive draft pick if he sticks on the active roster for the rest of the 2025 campaign. Harrington would need to win the NL Rookie of the Year award or finish in the top three of NL Cy Young award (or MVP) voting during his pre-arbitration years in order to bring back a PPI pick for Pittsburgh.

Rotation depth is perhaps the biggest strength of the Pirates’ roster. An on-paper starting five of Paul Skenes, Jones, Mitch Keller, Andrew Heaney, and Bailey Falter is already one of the most solid rotations in the National League, and the presence of youngsters like Harrington, Mlodzinski, Braxton Ashcraft, and star pitching prospect Bubba Chandler serve to lengthen out the club’s depth chart significantly. That rotation depth is robust enough that the Pirates felt comfortable trading a controllable young arm in Luis Ortiz even after a season where he posted a 3.32 ERA in 137 2/3 innings of work. That trade netted the Pirates a comparably controllable young hitter in Spencer Horwitz, who opened the season on the injured list due to wrist surgery but figures to settle in as the club’s everyday first baseman once healthy.

Ryan Borucki Expected To Make Pirates’ Roster; DJ Stewart Unlikely To Make Team, Has Opt-Out Clause

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10:34am: Mlodzinski will begin the season in the Pirates’ rotation, Shelton announced to the team’s beat this morning (via Stumpf).

10:25am: Left-handed reliever Ryan Borucki, who’s in camp with the Pirates on a minor league deal, is expected to make the roster, reports Alex Stumpf of MLB.com. Outfielder DJ Stewart, another Pirates non-roster invitee, is not expected to make the team and has an opt-out clause in his contract today, Stumpf adds. Meanwhile, Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that pitching prospect Thomas Harrington is expected to open the season in the minors, though he’s yet to be reassigned to minor league camp and is still slated to pitch today’s game.

Borucki, 31 next week, had a terrific 2023 season in Pittsburgh (2.45 ERA in 40 1/3 innings) but struggled through an injury-wrecked 2024 campaign. He signed a $1.6MM deal to avoid arbitration last winter and started strong but landed on the injured list in April due to a triceps issue. He ended up missing five months and was jumped for seven runs in just 7 2/3 innings upon returning.

This spring, Borucki has looked far more like the 2023 version of himself. He’s tossed 8 2/3 frames and held opponents to one run on five hits and five walks with a dozen punchouts. That 13.9% walk rate is obviously discouraging, but Borucki has typically shown strong command, and the 33.3% strikeout rate he’s notched thus far carries some weight as well.

Borucki will be one of at least three lefties in Derek Shelton’s bullpen. Pittsburgh signed Caleb Ferguson and Tim Mayza to one-year deals worth $3MM and $1.15MM, respectively, in free agency this winter. They’re both set. Southpaw Joey Wentz is still in camp as well. He’s out of minor league options. Wentz pitched well after being acquired from the Tigers late last season and has had a big spring, yielding a pair of runs on nine hits with a 12-to-3 K/BB ratio in 8 2/3 innings.

Stewart, 31, has had a decent showing this spring but seems ticketed to be granted his release. The lefty-swinging former first-rounder (Orioles, 2015) slashed .250/.348/.450 in 46 plate appearances but needed a .391 average on balls in play to get there. Stewart hit only one home run during camp and went down on strikes in 34.8% of his plate appearances.

Stewart had a big year with the Mets as recently as 2023, when he slashed .244/.333/.506 with 11 homers in only 185 trips to the plate. However, that’s an outlier relative to the rest of his career, and he followed it up with a .177/.325/.297 output and just five homers in a very similarly sized sample (194 plate appearances) in 2024.

Assuming he indeed opts out, Stewart can seek new opportunities elsewhere. He’ll be an option for clubs looking for some left-handed pop in the outfield corners or at first base (though his experience there is much, much more limited). Stewart strikes out too often but draws plenty of walks and has shown 25- to 30-homer power. Dating back to 2020, he’s batting .205/.329/.396 with 35 long balls, a 13.5% walk rate and a 28.7% strikeout rate in 812 plate appearances.

Harrington, 23, is one of the Pirates’ top minor league arms. A potential path to a rotation spot opened up last week when Jared Jones’ start was skipped due to an ominous elbow issue. It’s still not clear how things will play out with Jones, who at last update was seeking a second opinion. Harrington’s apparent omission from the roster could be a sign that there was good news with regard to Jones or that the Bucs will simply open the season with four starters and use the early off days to skip the fifth spot in the rotation. Pittsburgh could also give the rotation nod to righty Carmen Mlodzinski, who’s been stretching out this spring and remains in camp. Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Andrew Heaney and Bailey Falter are in the top four spots. Top prospect Bubba Chandler was already reassigned to minor league camp a couple weeks back.

The Pirates will need to open a 40-man roster spot for Borucki. He’ll earn the same $1.15MM as Mayza once his contract is formally selected. The Bucs don’t have a clear 60-day IL candidate, barring bad news on Jones. First baseman Spencer Horwitz is on the mend from wrist surgery, but that early-February procedure came with a recovery timetable of six to eight weeks, so there’s a decent chance he won’t be out long enough to require such a lengthy IL stay.

Pirates Skipping Jared Jones’ Next Start Due To Elbow Discomfort

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The Pirates provided an ominous update on one of their most promising young players Wednesday, when manager Derek Shelton announced that righty Jared Jones would have his next start skipped due to elbow discomfort (link via Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Jones first experienced discomfort during his most recent bullpen session earlier this week. The team has already had imaging performed and is seeking a second opinion before proceeding with a firm diagnosis and recovery timetable, per director of sports medicine Todd Tomcyzk.

The obvious hope will be for a minor issue that sees the talented 23-year-old return to the mound in short order. Any talk of a pitcher skipping a start due to elbow trouble without a firm diagnosis will naturally create concern, however, especially for someone whose future is as bright as that of Jones.

The 44th overall pick back in 2020, Jones pitched his way into top prospect status as he climbed the minor league ladder and broke camp in the Pirates’ rotation last year. He came roaring out of the gates, too, pitching to a 2.63 ERA with elite strikeout and walk rates through his first seven starts. He hit a rough patch beginning at the end of May and by early July was on the injured list due to a lat strain that would sideline him for about six weeks.

At the time of the injury, Jones had pitched 91 innings of 3.66 ERA ball with a strong 26.4% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. He was averaging 97.3 mph on his heater, inducing swinging strikes at a huge 15.4% clip, and generally looked the part of a mid-rotation starter at the very least — with the stuff and bat-missing ability to produce like a front-of-the-rotation arm. His velocity held when he returned from that lat injury, but his location wasn’t as sharp; Jones walked 9% of his hitters, induced far fewer swings off the plate and gave up far more contact within the strike zone. He finished out the season with a 4.14 ERA in 121 1/3 innings — a solid showing with plenty of hint for further upside.

Jones has looked sharp this spring. He’s pitched 12 innings and held opponents to three runs on eight hits and six walks with 17 punchouts. Again, that command isn’t as sharp as it was pre-injury in 2024, but he’s missing bats and hasn’t experienced any drop-off in the quality and power of his arsenal.

If Jones is shelved to begin the season, the Pirates would run with a rotation including Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Andrew Heaney and Bailey Falter. Options for the final spot in the rotation would include prospects Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Braxton Ashcraft and Mike Burrows. The former two are still in camp but not yet on the 40-man roster. The latter pair is on the 40-man roster, but both have already been optioned. Of course, with Jones ailing, either could be summoned to the majors to replace him.

Jones accrued a full year of big league service time in 2024. He’s still controllable through the 2029 season and isn’t slated to reach arbitration until the 2026-27 offseason.

Draft Signings: Angels, Mets, Braves, Cardinals, Brewers, Pirates

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A pair of top ten picks, Gavin Cross and Elijah Green, agreed to terms with their teams today. A host of other high picks are set to enter pro ball, as well. We’ll round up other signings among the top 40 here:

  • The Angels are in agreement with #13 overall pick Zach Neto, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (on Twitter). He receives a $3.5MM signing bonus, below the $4.41MM slot value associated with the pick. A 21-year-old shortstop out of Campbell, Neto was ranked the #16 prospect in the draft class by Baseball America. A well-rounded infielder, the righty-hitting Neto is seen as a possible hit-first shortstop at the major league level. He dominated Big South pitching over his three years with the Camels, including a .407/.514/.769 showing in 256 plate appearances as a junior.
  • The Mets announced they’ve reached an agreement with #14 selection Jett Williams. The 18-year-old infielder signs for a $3.9MM bonus, reports Tim Healey of Newsday (on Twitter). That’s a bit below the $4.24MM slot value that accompanies the #14 pick. Williams, a switch-hitter from a Texas high school, had been committed to Mississippi State. The #15 prospect in the class according to BA, he’s credited with advanced bat-to-ball skills and surprising bat speed for a player who’s listed at 5’8″ and 185 pounds. The outlet raises some questions about whether he can stick at shortstop but suggests he’s athletic enough to play up-the-middle in some capacity.
  • The Braves have an agreement with #20 selection Owen Murphy, Callis reports (Twitter link). It’s a $2.5569MM bonus, below the $3.4MM slot value.  A right-hander out of an Illinois high school, Murphy will forego his commitment to Notre Dame. BA rated the 18-year-old as the #45 prospect in the class, writing that he relies heavily on an upper 70s breaking ball that has the potential to be a plus offering.
  • The Cardinals announced they’ve signed #22 pick Cooper Hjerpe. Callis reports (on Twitter) that he’ll receive a $3.1822MM signing bonus that matches the pick’s slot value. Hjerpe was one of the top college pitchers in the country, tossing 103 1/3 innings of 2.53 ERA ball with a 39.6% strikeout rate during his junior season at Oregon State. BA rated Hjerpe as the #33 prospect in the class, praising the life he gets on his fastball at the top of the strike zone and his strike-throwing ability.
  • The Brewers announced an agreement with #27 pick Eric Brown Jr., which Callis reports is worth $2.15MM (Twitter link). The slot value for the selection is $2.7MM. A shortstop from Coastal Carolina, Brown was the draft’s #55 prospect according to BA. The outlet coincidentally likens his unusual hitting setup to the one Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell utilized as a player, but notes that Brown consistently posts solid exit velocity numbers and has a chance to stick at shortstop. The 21-year-old hit .330/.460/.544 during his junior year in Conway.
  • The Braves agreed to terms with #35 selection J.R. Ritchie, Callis reports (Twitter link). It’s a $2.4MM bonus, above the $2.0232MM slot value. A right-handed pitcher from a Washington state high school, Ritchie had been a UCLA commit. BA slotted the 19-year-old as the #52 prospect in the class, crediting him with a solid three-pitch mix (headlined by an above-average slider) and advanced control.
  • The Pirates announced a deal with #36 selection Thomas Harrington. The right-hander out of Campbell receives a $2.05MM signing bonus, reports Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (on Twitter). That’s a hair south of the $2.15MM slot value. Harrington was the #45 prospect available, according to BA, which projects him for a pair of above-average secondary offerings (slider and changeup) and possible plus control. The 21-year-old worked 92 2/3 innings of 2.53 ERA ball this season, fanning 30% of batters faced with a sparkling 4.9% walk percentage.
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