Each offseason at MLBTR, we take a look at the potential markets for some of the top names in free agency. We've already covered the two best free agent hitters, Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette. With Dylan Cease off the board on what is likely to be the biggest pitching contract of the winter, we'll look at the market for the best left-hander: Framber Valdez.
Valdez has been one of the most durable and consistent pitchers in the sport over the past six seasons. This year's 3.66 earned run average was his highest since he established himself as a starter with the Astros in 2020. Valdez has surpassed 175 innings in four straight seasons. He sits in the 95-96 MPH range and is capable of both missing bats and keeping the ball on the ground. Valdez doesn't have the strikeout ceiling that Cease brings to the table, but he has fanned an above-average 23-25% of opponents in four straight years. His true standout trait is a ground-ball rate that annually ranks among the sport's highest, including a huge 58.6% mark this past season.
The plus stuff from the left side and combination of whiffs and grounders makes Valdez fairly similar to Max Fried. He's not going to match the eight-year, $218MM contract that Fried commanded when he was headed into his age-31 season. Valdez, who turned 32 last month, is probably looking at a five- or six-year deal at a premium annual rate. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $150MM contract that made him our #6 free agent. He's tied with Tatsuya Imai for the second-largest predicted contracts among pitchers (behind Cease, whom we had at $189MM over seven years).
Valdez rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros, who are not expected to make much of an effort to bring him back. They'll receive a compensatory pick -- specifics of which won't be determined until MLB finalizes the 2025 luxury tax calculations -- while the signing team will forfeit draft and/or international bonus pool space. That shouldn't be much of a deterrent for arguably the best immediate rotation upgrade available.
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I think that I like Ranger better than Framber and Dylan. He does not eat as many innings, but the quality is better.
Everybody knows the best fit is SFG, except the team owners.
Ehhhh…. I think Framber is slightly beyond is career peak. I’d rather the Giants spend less on Merrill Kelly or seek a bounce-back from Walker Buehler, instead of giving Framber ace money.
Use the big money to go get Bichette to play second. Or better yet, give it Schwarber for an onslaught of McCovey Cove splashes.
Framber actually pitches. I think he’s got a few more years in the tank and close to peak performance.
oldgfan: Not everyone, only biased Giants fans like you who don’t care or think about other teams.
What me Worry ?
Why is SF the best fit? It’s a mediocre team with little young talent and no real hope of contention with or without him.
I guess it depends which team wants a guy who actively tries to injure his own teammates
The only way I would pursue him is if I had a veteran team with a pair of established catchers an an established #1 starter.
Mets
NO!!
Mets.
This feels like a Preller strike. I know: “payroll, team for sale”, but just saying. Dude always does something off the wall.
If any pitcher is interested in rings and legacy over a little more money then sign with the A’s. You’ll have 2 rings by seasons end ‘29. You may even have them in two different cities for the same franchise
Especially if Fisher sells the team for a massive profit shortly after the move to Las Vegas
The Big Yo: I want some of what you’re smoking.
Orioles. Eve Rosenbaum scouted him as an amatuer during Elias’s time as head of scouting for the Astros. If the O’s are going to spend significant money, it is more likely they do it for someone they are familiar with.
He is an older FA, he will take the most money.
Manuutebol: What sources other than your own wishful thinking?
Do all 30 teams truly need to be mentioned?