Framber Valdez

AL West Notes: Angels, Astros, Brantley

By Nick Deeds | March 26, 2023 at 7:11am CDT

Angels manager Phil Nevin indicated to reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) that the club would not be naming right-hander Carlos Estevez as the closer to open the season, instead opting for a committee approach to open the season. Estevez signed with the Angels earlier this offseason on a two-year deal and was expected to step into the closer role to open the season, but that does not appear to be the plan, at least for the start of the 2023 campaign.

Still, Nevin told reporters that Estevez “is definitely going to get some big outs late in the game most of the year for us,” leaving the door open to the right-hander remaining the conversation to close games for the Angels this season. The Angels have a fairly deep group of pitchers with late inning experience at the back of their bullpen in addition to Estevez that includes Ryan Tepera, Matt Moore, Aaron Loup and Jimmy Herget.

The Angels were aggressive in acquiring shorter-term assets this offseason in order to immediately improve the club during two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani’s final year of club control. The additions of Hunter Renfroe, Gio Urshela, and Brandon Drury lengthened the lineup and provided depth in case of injuries while the club signed Tyler Anderson to deepen the starting rotation. The additions of Estevez and Moore to the bullpen this offseason certainly improved upon the group of relievers the Angels would’ve otherwise had, but it’s an open question whether or not they did enough to make up for the still-lingering loss of Raisel Iglesias, who was dealt to the Braves at the last trade deadline.

Dana Brown Discusses Astros’ Attempted Contract Extensions

By Darragh McDonald | March 8, 2023 at 5:28pm CDT

The Astros hired Dana Brown to be the club’s new general manager in January, plucking him from his previous job as vice president of scouting for Atlanta. Since then, he’s been quite open about his desire to replicate that club’s penchant for signing core players to long-term extensions, though his tune has been changing this week.

Brown’s previous employer has been very aggressive at locking up players to lengthy deals, with Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris all recently putting pen to paper. Since switching clubs, Brown has mentioned Cristian Javier, Framber Valdez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman as some of the players he’s hoping to be similarly locked up with his new club.

The Javier extension was crossed off the list last month but it seems the plans for the others have hit a few snags since then, as it was reported last night that the club isn’t very close to a deal in its talks with either Valdez and Tucker. Brown provided some comments on the situation to reporters today, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, acknowledging that he “felt a little less optimistic” about getting deals done with those two players.

The reporting yesterday indicated that Brown expected to have more information in the next 48 hours. That timeline still seems to be holding today, with Brown saying he’s expecting to hear from the representatives of both players by Thursday afternoon, though he doesn’t want to characterize it as a deadline. “We’re trying to have conversations and, at some point, the player wants to play,” Brown said. “We can still talk. It’s not a deadline. It’s like ‘Hey, I’ll get back to you in the next 24-48 hours and give you an update.’ It’s not that it’s over. It’s just that, for right now, we may decide to wait a little bit.”

Despite Brown’s initial eagerness to get these deals done, he’s now operating in a new organization. As Rome points out, the largest extension that the Astros have given out under owner Jim Crane is the five-year, $151MM deal for Altuve, followed by six years and $115MM for Yordan Alvarez and then five years and $100MM for Bregman. Brown suggests that Crane is willing to go a bit beyond the five-year mark, but not substantially.

“I think Jim is willing to (go) further, I just don’t know that I have the comfort of going as long as, say, maybe I’ll have to to get Tucker done,” Brown said. “I just don’t like big deals. If they’re open for something a little more than five, maybe I would be open to doing that. I’m sure Jim would be, too. I think Jim is very open. But doing 10-year deals, I don’t know if we’ll ever get to that point. That’s a lot of years, man. I’m not comfortable doing 10. I don’t mind doing 10 if you get a guy to the big leagues in the early 20s, really feel like he’s a big piece of the franchise, face of the franchise, and get him done for 10 and he finishes it out at 32-33. I’m OK with that,” Brown continued. “These deals that go beyond 33, for me, I’m uncomfortable. The analytics on that is not good.”

Rome adds that he asked Brown about the fact that Atlanta, under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, gave Olson $168MM over eight years and then $212MM over ten years to Riley. “Alex was the boss there. I don’t know if I would have done those deals because I’m just not a 10-year guy. But I would do multiple years. I would even go up to seven.” Riley’s ten-year deal is set to go through 2032, when he will be in his age-35 season. Olson’s will go through 2029, which will also be his age-35 season. Atlanta has a club option on each player for their respective age-36 seasons. According to Brown’s framing, those deals both went beyond his comfort zone but that Anthopoulos had a greater willingness to lengthen those deals to get them done.

Tucker is 26 years old right now and is set to make $5MM this season after losing his arbitration battle to the club. If the Astros were to offer him a seven-year extension that begins next season, it would go through 2030, which would be Tucker’s age-33 campaign. Taking Brown’s comments at face value, it seems that is where his comfort zone ends. It’s possible that this is merely a negotiating tactic and that the willingness to do a longer deal is greater than he’s letting on. But it’s also possible that the reason a deal hasn’t come together yet is that Tucker’s camp is trying to push for a longer pact that goes into his mid-3os, like those secured by Olson and Riley.

Whether the Astros can bridge those gaps and get extensions done remains to be seen, but it seems Brown’s preference would be for them to come together soon. “I don’t like to do much of it during the season, if you can avoid that,” he says. In the grand scheme of things, these comments perhaps point to Brown changing course from his time in Atlanta, either because that is his prerogative or the organization’s. If one takes him at his word, then this means the club will perhaps have less risk tolerance than Atlanta and will therefore be less likely to hand out extensions to its players. The club’s eventual actions will be more important than words in establishing the reputation, but the outward suggestion is that the blueprint in Houston won’t be exactly the same as it was in Atlanta.

Astros Facing Gaps In Extension Talks With Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez

By Nick Deeds and Anthony Franco | March 7, 2023 at 10:45pm CDT

The Astros have spent the past few weeks attempting to work out extensions with a number of key players. Outfielder Kyle Tucker and starting pitcher Framber Valdez are among those with whom the club has been in contact, though the New York Post’s Jon Heyman now casts some doubt on the chances of either player signing this spring.

Astros GM Dana Brown tells Heyman the club expects to know whether anything will transpire within the next 48 hours. Brown frankly tells Heyman the team is “further away (in negotiations) with Tucker” than Valdez but didn’t handicap the odds of getting a deal done with either player.

Teammate Yordan Alvarez represents one potential comparison point in discussions with Tucker, who has between three and four years of service time. The slugger signed a six-year, $115MM deal just last June, agreeing to a fairly rare midseason extension of significance. Alvarez technically was just shy of three years of service at the time of signing but inked a deal that didn’t go into effect until this year. For all intents and purposes, he was essentially in the same service bucket as Tucker now finds himself.

Alvarez is a better hitter than Tucker and one of the best offensive players in baseball. His career wRC+ of 164 trails only Mike Trout among active players with at least 1500 plate appearances. However, he’s also had some knee issues and been mostly limited to designated hitter, with only part-time work in left field. Tucker, by contrast, is an excellent defensive right fielder.

Alvarez’s deal was the second-largest for a player in the 3-4 year service window. The record still belongs to Freddie Freeman, who signed an eight-year, $135MM deal with the Braves ahead of the 2014 season. Freeman was a year younger than Tucker is now and coming off a stronger platform season. However, that deal is a decade old at this point and Tucker’s camp could look to beat that pact. However, such a deal would be the longest deal in Astros history and the second richest, with only Jose Altuve’s $151MM guarantee surpassing it.

Brown indicated that Tucker is seeking out a longer-term deal than the Astros have historically given out. For his part, the GM seems to have little interest in breaking that organizational tradition, telling Heyman, “I understand that [avoidance of long-term deals], and I respect that. A lot of those long-term deals, they don’t end well.”

Given this, it’s no surprise that Astros brass seems to feel better about their odds of extending Valdez. The southpaw can also look to a teammate as a direct extension comp. In his case, it’s righty Cristian Javier, who signed a five-year, $64MM pact last month. That represented the largest guarantee for a starting pitcher with between three and four years of service time.

It’s fair to expect Valdez’s camp would want to top that mark. Javier’s track record pales in comparison to that of Valdez; while both pitchers sport a 3.05 ERA since the start of the 2020 season, Valdez’s 3.34 FIP outshines Javier’s figure of 3.90 while the lefty also has volume on his side. Valdez has thrown 406 2/3 innings since the start of the 2020 campaign, more than a hundred ahead of Javier, and his career best 201 1/3 innings in 2022 have the look of a modern-day workhorse. Javier, by contrast, recorded a seventh inning out just twice during the 2022 season.

That’s partially reflected in Valdez’s better earning power in arbitration. He’s set to make $6.8MM for the upcoming season, whereas Javier was headed for a first-year arbitration salary around $3MM. Valdez, as a Super Two qualifier over the 2021-22 offseason, also had an extra season of arbitration eligibility to build that stronger platform salary. That gap would’ve compounded on an annual basis considering arbitration salaries are based in part on a player’s previous-year salary.

Javier, who celebrates his 26th birthday later this month, had youth on his side in signing that extension compared to Valdez. The southpaw is already 29. That perhaps makes Javier a cleaner long-term bet from the team’s perspective, though it also puts more of a premium for Valdez on securing a lofty guarantee if he’s to sign an extension. While Javier will still get to free agency shortly before turning 31, Valdez would be signing away at least his age-32 season (and perhaps beyond) in any deal that buys out free agent seasons.

Both Valdez and Tucker are controllable through the end of the 2025 season, given the club ample time to revisit contract talks in the future, even if no extensions get done in Brown’s proposed 48-hour window. With that being said, Brown could certainly continue attempting to extend the stay of either Alex Bregman or Altuve in Houston once negotiations with Tucker and Valdez have been tabled. Both veterans are set to become free agents following the 2024 season, meaning there will be far more urgency in locking up that pair of players going forward, particularly once the 2023 season has drawn to a close. The GM has already expressed a desire to retain both players, saying he’d like to keep both in Houston for the entirety of their careers.

AL Notes: Astros, Kahnle, Abreu

By Nick Deeds | March 5, 2023 at 6:32pm CDT

Astros GM Dana Brown provided an update on his efforts to extend members of the club’s core while speaking on a radio broadcast this afternoon, as noted by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Brown acknowledged that the club is in extension negotiations with Casey Close, the agent of Houston outfielder Kyle Tucker, saying, “We’re optimistic. We think we can get something done.” while also acknowledging that any contract discussions would likely be tabled if a deal was not in place by Opening Day. Brown also mentioned that the club has begun discussions with left-hander Framber Valdez and his agent about a potential extension, as well.

Brown has been unusually candid publicly about his efforts to extend several members of the Astros core, having made public comments regarding a desire to extend not only Tucker and Valdez but also Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Cristian Javier. Of that group, only Javier has inked an extension thus far, though Altuve and Bregman are both under club control for the next two seasons, while Tucker and Valdez aren’t expected to hit free agency until the 2025-26 offseason.

Brown’s front office will certainly have the financial resources to get extensions done, as the club’s payroll situation leaves Houston plenty of room to maneuver. RosterResource pegs the club’s 2024 luxury tax commitments at just under $159.5MM, and though that figure does not include salaries due to arbitration-eligible players, even a significant raise on the $23.2MM the Astros spent in arbitration this year would leave them with plenty of room under their expected 2023 payroll, which stands at just under $218MM for luxury tax purposes.

Dana Brown Discusses Astros’ Extension Targets

By Anthony Franco | February 17, 2023 at 8:49pm CDT

First-year Astros general manager Dana Brown took control of the front office on the eve of Spring Training, an atypically late GM hire. With the club’s offseason business mostly taken care of, he immediately turned his attention toward keeping some key players who are already on the roster.

Houston already extended Cristian Javier through 2027. Brown has spoken about seeking out long-term deals for Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman in recent weeks. He added star southpaw Framber Valdez to the mix, telling reporters yesterday the club had been in touch with the representatives for both Valdez and Tucker (link via Associated Press). Meanwhile, Brown stated he’s frankly told agent Scott Boras, who represents both Altuve and Bregman, the duo “should be in Houston for life.”

It’s a fairly quick turn of events with regards to Valdez, in particular. The hurler’s agent Ulises Cabrera told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle on Tuesday he’d yet to have any conversations with the club. Brown predictably didn’t divulge specifics in negotiations and there’s nothing to suggest talks have made any notable progress within the first few days. Nevertheless, it’s unsurprising confirmation the team would like to keep Valdez around.

He’s already under club control through 2025 via arbitration. Valdez will make $6.8MM for the upcoming season and is likely to land a pair of solid raises if he goes annually through that process. The 29-year-old is coming off the best year of his career, one in which he secured a fifth-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting thanks to a 2.82 ERA and incredible 66.5% grounder percentage through 201 1/3 innings.

Altuve and Bregman, of course, have been career-long Astros. The former has twice signed long-term extensions with Houston, with the most recent of those deals coming during Spring Training in 2018. That $151MM contract runs through 2024, paying him $26MM annually over the next couple seasons. The deal runs through his age-34 season. Altuve hasn’t yet shown any signs of tailing off, as he’s coming off a .300/.387/.533 showing with 28 home runs.

Bregman inked a $100MM extension a year after Altuve signed his second deal. He’s making $28.5MM in both of the next two seasons and also tracking towards free agency during the 2024-25 offseason. The former second overall pick would reach the market in advance of his age-31 campaign if he doesn’t sign an intervening extension. Bregman played at an MVP-caliber level between 2018-19; he’s “merely” been excellent over the few years since then, including a .259/.366/.454 line with more walks than strikeouts last year.

With all of these players under guaranteed contract or arbitration control for at least two more years, Brown and his staff don’t need to get anything done in the next six weeks. Houston’s list of upcoming free agents is comparatively modest: catcher Martín Maldonado, outfielder Michael Brantley and relievers Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek. Houston already has José Abreu, Lance McCullers Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Rafael Montero and Javier on eight-figure contracts for the 2025 season.

Astros, Framber Valdez Have Yet To Discuss Extension

By Darragh McDonald | February 14, 2023 at 5:31pm CDT

There’s been much chatter around the Astros and extensions recently, with Cristian Javier already locked up and the club also interested in deals for players like Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve. However, one player who doesn’t seem to be on the verge of signing a lengthy new pact is left-hander Framber Valdez, as his agent Ulises Cabrera tells Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle that no extension talks have taken place thus far.

“That is 1,000 percent categorically false,” Cabrera said in response to a report that Valdez could sign before Opening Day and was looking for over $150MM. “I haven’t even had a conversation with (general manager Dana Brown) with respect to Framber Valdez. There are no negotiations. Whatever conversations that do exist will not be handled in the press.” That’s not to suggest that an extension is off the table, of course. “He likes Houston,” Cabrera says of Valdez. “Whatever conversation (happens) beyond that is something we’ll address if necessary. Until then, there’s no use in speculating.”

Part of the reason that extensions have been in the spotlight in Houston is the hiring of Brown a few weeks ago. He came over from an Atlanta organization that has been the most aggressive in the league when it comes to locking up core players to lengthy extensions. Brown has been quite open about his desire to bring a similar strategy to Houston and the club has already crossed one player off the list. Last week, Javier and the club agreed to a five-year, $64MM guarantee that secured his salary for his three remaining arbitration years as well as buying out two free agent seasons.

The situations with Valdez and Javier have some parallels but also some notable differences. Both players have between three and four years of service time right now, meaning Valdez is currently slated to reach free agency after 2025, just as Javier was before agreeing to his new deal. Valdez’s track record of success is a bit lengthier, but he’s also significantly older since he had a sort of late bloomer trajectory. He was up-and-down over his first couple of seasons and didn’t truly establish himself until the 2020 season, when he was 26. Javier, on the other hand, also cemented himself in that 2020 campaign when he was 23.

Looking at the results, Valdez and Javier have been similarly effective, though they’ve accomplished that in different ways. Valdez has a 3.38 ERA with a 3.66 FIP while his teammate has a 3.05 ERA but a 3.90 FIP. Javier’s 30.9% strikeout rate is much better than the 22.9% rate of Valdez, but the reverse is true in terms of getting ground balls, with Valdez at 66.2% thus far in his career and Javier at only at 27.1%. Valdez has also built this résumé over a large sample size, with his 514 1/3 innings almost twice as large as the 304 1/3 of Javier, and his 8.5 fWAR tally is also heftier than the 4.5 of Javier.

Given the larger sample of quality work, Valdez could perhaps make an argument that he is deserving of an even larger contract than what Javier just secured. He also qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player, which allowed him to earn $3MM last year and $6.8MM this year. Javier, on the other hand, had requested at $3.5MM for this year while the Astros filed at $3MM, before the extension was agreed upon. With Valdez getting himself to a higher price point, that would give him extra leverage in trying to top Javier in extensions talks.

But it’s possible that the age situation causes the calculus to change. In the case of Javier, the Astros are paying him for five seasons in which he will be aged 26 in the first and 30 in the last. For Valdez, the Astros can already control him via arbitration through his age-31 season and any extension would involve locking him in for his age-32 campaign or beyond. It’s possible that the club would have a bit less motivation to keep Valdez around longer since they already control the bulk of what are likely to be his prime years.

Then there’s also the player perspective to consider. Though Javier gave up two free agent years when he put pen to paper, he’s still slated to become a free agent prior to his age-31 campaign and could be in position to find another lengthy deal. If Valdez were to strike a similar deal that also gave the club two extra years of control, he wouldn’t hit the open market until the offseason where he turns 34, which would likely limit him to short-term deals even if he’s still having good results on the field at that point.

It’s possible that Valdez would prefer to stay on his current trajectory so that he can hold onto his best chance of a mega deal. It’s also possible that the Astros could simply put forth an offer that’s too good for him to pass up, but based on the comments from his agent, that doesn’t seem to be something that’s imminent. For now, he’ll be going into 2023 arguably as the frontman of the Houston rotation, with Justin Verlander now pitching for the Mets. He’ll be looking to build off an excellent season where he made 31 starts with a 2.82 ERA, and then took the ball another four times in the postseason with a 1.44 ERA, helping the club to its second World Series title.

Justin Verlander Wins American League Cy Young Award

By Anthony Franco | November 16, 2022 at 7:27pm CDT

Justin Verlander has been named the American League’s Cy Young award winner, according to an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. He received all 30 first-place votes.

Like Sandy Alcantara in the National League, Verlander took the award in a clean sweep. The respective dominance of each player has look since taken away much of the intrigue as to who would actually claim the honors, and the unanimous finishes paint a picture of their excellence. Verlander’s elbow blew out during his first start of 2020, eventually leading to a Tommy John surgery that kept him out of action until this year. He returned to the Astros on a $25MM guarantee last winter and, despite being 39 years old, showed no ill effects of such a major procedure.

Verlander returned to make 28 starts, staying healthy until a late-season injured list stint with a calf strain. He tossed 175 innings with an AL-best 1.75 ERA, a mark nearly a half-run lower than that of the next-best finisher. Even with the late-season IL stay, the former MVP placed 16th in the Junior Circuit in innings. He finished seventh among those with 100+ frames in strikeout rate (27.8%) and walk percentage (4.4%) alike.

It’s the third career Cy Young nod for the future Hall of Famer. Verlander becomes the 11th pitcher in big league history to claim the award three times, joining former teammate Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw as the only active players to do so. He earned his ninth All-Star nod midseason and led his league in ERA for the second time.

Verlander’s Cy Young adds to an already illustrious resume, while his stellar season positions him for a fascinating trip to free agency. He’s presently on the open market after declining a player option with Houston for the 2023 campaign. There’s essentially no precedent for a pitcher performing this well hitting free agency heading into his age-40 season. Verlander’s sure to secure one of the loftiest per-year salaries in MLB history, and Houston owner Jim Crane said last night he’s looking to top Scherzer’s three-year, $130MM deal with the Mets from last winter.

The other finalists in the American League were Chicago’s Dylan Cease and Toronto’s Alek Manoah. Cease received 14 second-place votes to earn the runner-up finish after placing second with a 2.20 ERA in 184 innings. Manoah finished just behind him with a 2.24 ERA across 196 2/3 frames, securing seven second-place votes in his own right. Cease and Manoah joined Verlander in appearing on all 30 ballots in some capacity.

Shohei Ohtani finished in fourth place and actually secured more second-place votes (nine) than did Manoah after leading the league in strikeout rate. Innings leader Framber Valdez ended up in fifth. Others who earned at least one vote are Shane McClanahan, Shane Bieber, Nestor Cortes Jr., Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman.

Full voting breakdown available here.

The Changing Landscape Of The AL Cy Young Race

By Steve Adams | September 8, 2022 at 6:57pm CDT

Two weeks ago, the Cy Young race in the American League looked like a two-horse race, with both Houston’s Justin Verlander and Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan hovering at or below the 2.00 ERA mark and racking up innings atop their teams’ respective rotations. McClanahan has the larger strikeout percentage and subsequently superior marks from fielding-independent metrics that some voters increasingly weigh. Verlander was averaging one extra out recorded per start prior to being lifted early his last time out, and his 16-3 win-loss record might hold some sway with traditionalist voters.

Or, all of that could be rendered moot.

Both Verlander and McClanahan are on the 15-day injured list, and Verlander, who had been improbably leading the Majors in ERA as a 39-year-old in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, sounds as though he’ll miss several weeks rather than just the 15-day minimum. McClanahan, a late scratch from his last start, is already throwing and seems likelier to make a quick return. However, the Rays could very well take a cautious approach and limit his innings after a two-week absence due to a shoulder impingement.

At the very least, the door is now open for further competition in Cy Young voting, ostensibly setting the stage for the closest AL vote we’ve seen since 2019, when Verlander and then-teammate Gerrit Cole finished in the top two positions on the ballot. Last year’s NL Cy Young voting sparked plenty of controversy and debate as well, and as things currently stand, we could get an encore of that scene in the AL this year.

If not Verlander or McClanahan, who are the top names to consider? Let’s dive in.

Dylan Cease, RHP, White Sox

Cease, following a near-no-hitter against the Twins that saw him go 8 2/3 before Luis Arraez cracked a ninth-inning single, may have leapfrogged both Verlander and McClanahan as the odds-on favorite in the American League. He’s sitting on MLB’s third-lowest ERA — sandwiched right between Verlander and McClanahan, no less — and that 2.13 mark is complemented by a 31.4% strikeout rate that ranks as the fourth-highest of any qualified starting pitcher in baseball.

At 5.5 wins above replacement (per Baseball Reference), Cease already leads American League pitchers — even over Verlander and McClanahan. That’d due largely to the fact that Cease is putting up these numbers in front of one of the game’s bottom-10 defenses.

It’s not all roses, as Cease has a 10.4% walk rate that sits dead last among qualified starters. He hasn’t been terribly efficient, either; where both Verlander and McClanahan have averaged comfortably more than six innings per start, Cease has averaged 5.77 innings per appearance this year.

Still, Chicagoans can no doubt see the parallels between Cease’s 2022 showing and the 2016 performance of another Chicago hurler — crosstown righty Jake Arrieta, when he rode a historic summer surge to Cy Young honors. Over his past 15 starts, Cease has tallied 93 innings of 1.45 ERA ball and held opponents to one or zero runs on a dozen occasions. Cease isn’t quite in Arrieta territory (0.86 ERA in his final 147 innings), but he’s not terribly far off, either. If he can sustain anything close to this pace, Cease will finish the season at or near the top of the AL in terms of innings pitched, ERA, total strikeouts and strikeout rate.

Alek Manoah, RHP, Blue Jays

Manoah looked borderline unhittable for the season’s first two months, carrying a 1.67 ERA in that time and allowing just 55 hits and a 0.59 HR/9 mark through June 13 (75 2/3 innings). He had a solid but closer-to-average run for much of the summer but has now yielded just three runs in his past 28 1/3 innings.

At 171 innings of 2.42 ERA ball on the year, the 24-year-old is on the periphery of the race at present. He ranks fourth in American League ERA but trails McClanahan, Cease and especially Verlander in that department. He lacks the gaudy strikeout ratios boasted by both Cease and McClanahan but limits hard contact better than any non-McClanahan pitcher in the AL, evidenced by a 31.3% hard-hit rate. (McClanahan leads qualified AL starters at 30.1%.)

However, Manoah’s 171 are second-most in the American League, and if he continues this hot streak, there’s a chance he could wind up among the league leaders in ERA, innings pitched and other key categories. In terms of wins and losses, everyone’s trailing Verlander’s 16 victories, but Manoah’s 14 are tied with Framber Valdez for second in the league. Speaking of which…

Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros

It’s easy to be overshadowed by the season Verlander is enjoying, but we should all probably be discussing Valdez’s outstanding year more than we are. The 28-year-old southpaw is just one-third of an inning behind Manoah at 170 2/3, and he also sits sixth in ERA (2.64) and ninth in bWAR (3.4).

Valdez has emerged as baseball’s preeminent ground-ball starting pitcher, and it’s not close; he leads all qualified pitchers in ground-ball rate at 66.7%, and Logan Webb’s 57.5% rate is second-best. Even dropping the minimum to 50 innings as a starter, he still leads Alex Cobb (61.9%) and Andre Pallante (61.4%) by a wide margin.

In an age where starters are yanked from the game earlier than ever before, Valdez is a throwback. He’s worked at least six innings in every one of his starts since April 25, completing seven or more innings on 11 occasions and twice going the distance with a complete game. Over his past five starts, Valdez has 35 2/3 innings of 1.77 ERA ball. It’ll be a challenge for him to drop his ERA into the low 2.00s, and he can’t match Cease or McClanahan in terms of strikeouts, but Valdez will likely be the American League innings leader and finish with a mid-2.00s ERA and MLB-leading ground-ball rate.

Shohei Ohtani, RHP, Angels

When Ohtani pitched to a 3.99 ERA through the first six weeks of the season, it looked as if we were in for an (almost) mortal season out of the two-way phenom. He averaged just over five innings per start, and while the strikeouts were still there in droves, he was also unusually homer-prone. A Cy Young pursuit did not appear to be on the horizon.

In 88 2/3 innings since that time? Ohtani has a 1.83 ERA with fewer homers allowed (six) than in his first 47 1/3 innings (seven). He at one point rattled off six consecutive starts with double-digit strikeout totals, and opponents have batted .199/.249/.301 against him during this stretch.

Ohtani’s 33% strikeout rate on the season leads qualified starting pitchers (though would trail Braves phenom Spencer Strider by a good margin if Strider had a few more innings), and while many fans and Ohtani detractors bristle at the notion, it’s hard not to consider that he does all this while also serving as a middle-of-the-order slugger who ranks among the league’s top power threats.

Ultimately, with just 136 innings pitched this season, it’s hard to imagine that Ohtani will actually garner many (if any) first-place Cy Young votes. Yes, he’s sporting a 2.58 ERA, leading the league with a 33% strikeout rate and sitting second among AL starters with 4.7 bWAR. But Ohtani is ultimately going to be up against multiple starters with better bottom-line run prevention numbers and as many as 40 to 50 additional innings pitched. Corbin Burnes won an NL Cy Young last year with just 167 frames, but the top names in the American League this year have had better seasons.

Kevin Gausman, RHP, Blue Jays

Gausman will be the analytic darling in this year’s field. I debated whether to mention him at all for this breakdown, as he’d need a pretty dominant finish to push his way in among the leaders in more traditional categories, but the right-hander is second in the American League at FanGraphs with 5.2 wins above replacement. fWAR is based on fielding-independent pitching rather than actual runs allowed, and Gausman has been quite good this season — 3.12 ERA in 147 innings — despite being one of the game’s least-fortunate pitchers in terms of balls in play. He’s lugging around an MLB-worst .368 BABIP, and the next-highest mark (Jordan Lyles at .323) isn’t even close.

There’s perhaps some temptation to think that Gausman is then yielding far too much hard contact, but that’s not necessarily the case. He’s not managing contact as well as any of the others profiled here, but his 89 mph average exit velocity and 39% hard-hit rate are barely north of the respective 88.6 mph and 38.3% league averages in those regards.

Gausman has the game’s third-best walk rate (3.8%), the tenth-best strikeout rate (27.9%) and is sixth-best in the differential between those two (24.1 K-BB%). He’s averaging just 5 2/3 innings per start, however, and isn’t particularly helping his cause down the stretch (3.99 ERA over his past five outings… again, with a .370 BABIP).

—

A lot can (and will) change between now and season’s end, but since this is all just for debate anyhow, I’ll include a poll to close this out:

Astros Willing To Listen To Offers On Controllable Starting Pitching

By Steve Adams | July 28, 2022 at 8:08am CDT

July 28: Houston would seek center field and/or catching help that is controlled beyond the current season in any deals for Urquidy or other cost-controlled starting pitching, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. As Rosenthal points out, many of the obvious cost-controlled options at those positions (e.g. Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds, Athletics catcher Sean Murphy) play on teams that would not necessarily be targeting arb-eligible players with only three seasons of control remaining.

Rosenthal posits the Orioles as a potential partner whose current goals could align with those of the Astros, though Urquidy alone seems unlikely to be sufficient to pry Cedric Mullins loose. I’d add that it bears at least some mention that Baltimore GM Mike Elias knows the Houston system better than most rivals, stemming back to his roots as a scouting director and assistant GM with the ’Stros.

Speculatively speaking, both the Cardinals and Mariners have outfield depth and a need for rotation help. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are deeper in catchers than most clubs and have been on the lookout for potential rotation additions.

July 27: “Controllable starters” is becoming one of the most commonly repeated phrases of the 2022 trade deadline, as far more young arms than expected are being made available to teams in need of starting pitching. ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds the Astros to the growing list of clubs that will at least entertain offers for young, cost-controlled members of their starting rotation, citing multiple GMs who’ve had trade conversations with the Houston front office. Righty Jose Urquidy would appear the likeliest of the bunch to change hands, per the report.

A trade dealing from the Houston rotation isn’t a given, but the ’Stros have plenty of depth to withstand such a move if it means helping them address other areas of need. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, Jake Odorizzi and Urquidy give them six viable starters on the big league roster, and that’s not even including Lance McCullers Jr., who’s on a rehab assignment and trending toward a return to the Major League mound.

Houston also has top prospect Hunter Brown tearing through Triple-A lineups, and righty Brandon Bielak (who has a bit of MLB experience already) is pitching well in Triple-A Sugar Land as well. Former top prospect Forrest Whitley, meanwhile, recently returned from a lengthy stay on the injured list and is building up in Sugar Land, too.

It’s unlikely that Houston would move any member of its current rotation for pure prospects — not when the team has a firm grip on the American League West and appears poised for another potentially deep playoff run. Flipping an arm they control for multiple seasons, however, could be a means of bringing in some help at first base, in the outfield and/or behind the plate. The Astros don’t know when or whether backup catcher Jason Castro and left fielder Michael Brantley will return — Castro from a knee injury and Brantley from a shoulder issue (neither of which the team has elaborated upon to the public). Manager Dusty Baker told reporters about a half-hour ago that Brantley, who’s been on the injured list since June 26, has yet to even swing a bat (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

Turning to the list of plausible names for the Astros to consider, it’s fairly logical that Urquidy might top the list. Garcia was the American League Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021 and is controlled four more seasons — the most of any current member of the rotation — making him tougher to move. Each of Urquidy, Javier and Valdez are under team control through the 2025 season, but Valdez has stepped up as Houston’s No. 2 starter behind Verlander. Javier, meanwhile, is striking out nearly twice as many hitters as Urquidy and allowing home runs at a much lower rate (0.97 HR/9 to Urquidy’s 1.52).

None of that is to say that Urquidy, 27, is expendable or ineffective. To the contrary, he’s a former Top-100 prospect who’s appeared in parts of four MLB seasons now and pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA in each. He’s currently sporting a solid 3.93 ERA through 100 2/3 innings (18 starts). Urquidy is not and never has been an overpowering pitcher, evidenced by this year’s 18.2% strikeout rate and a career 19.8% mark in that regard, but he has some of the best command of any starter in the Majors. Urquidy is tied for the 12th-lowest walk rate among qualified big league starters (5.2%), and he’s tenth-best among 114 starters with at least 250 innings, dating back to his 2019 MLB debut.

Urquidy will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, as will Javier. (Valdez is in the same service class but already hit arbitration as a Super Two player.) His salary should only jump into the $2-3MM range for the 2023 campaign, and he ought to remain relatively affordable through 2025, his final year of team control.

It bears emphasizing that a trade shouldn’t necessarily be seen as likely. Houston is surely taking an opportunistic approach to the depth they’ve cultivated in the rotation, but the Astros also will surely have a high asking price on Urquidy or any of their other young starters — and understandably so. For as deep as the group looks right now, pitching depth is often fleeting, and the Astros can’t know for certain what the future holds for either Verlander or Odorizzi, both of whom have player options for the 2023 season (assuming Verlander throws another 13 2/3 innings to reach 130 frames on the year, that is).

For now, Urquidy can be lumped in with a mounting number of quality arms who could potentially be acquired for a decent return and controlled by his new club for several seasons. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, while the Guardians are willing to listen on Zach Plesac. They join long-obvious trade candidates like the Reds’ Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle, and the Athletics’ Frankie Montas, as names to watch in advance of next Tuesday’s 6 pm ET trade deadline.

Framber Valdez, Tucker Davidson To Start Game 5 Of World Series

By Mark Polishuk | October 31, 2021 at 1:02pm CDT

The Astros will turn to Framber Valdez to stave off elimination in tonight’s fifth game of the World Series, while the Braves will kick off a bullpen game with another rookie pitcher. The Braves announced this afternoon that left-hander Tucker Davidson will get the start (or, more accurately, serve as the opener) in what will be Davidson’s first career postseason appearance, and only his sixth career games at the Major League level. Davidson was added to the Braves’ World Series roster as an injury replacement after Charlie Morton suffered a fractured fibula during Game 1.

Davidson made one start for Atlanta in 2020 and then posted a 3.60 ERA over four starts and 20 innings this season, with his most recent MLB outing coming back on June 15 due to a forearm injury. In fact, Davidson has only pitched one game total since that June 15 start, tossing three innings for Triple-A Gwinnett on the final day of the minor league season (October 3).

Though Davidson is one of the better pitching prospects in Atlanta’s farm system, obviously it’s anyone’s guess as to what he’ll be able to deliver on the mound, even in what might amount to just an inning of work. That said, given how the rest of the Braves bullpen has stifled Houston’s lineup throughout the World Series, Davidson’s task is just to avoid disaster and then turn things over to his veteran teammates.

The Braves followed this same script in Game 4, as rookie Dylan Lee worked as the opener and pitched to four batters, recording one out and allowing a run on a hit and two walks. Kyle Wright then entered the game to bail Lee out, and Wright proceeded to toss 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball. A scoreless inning each from Chris Martin, Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, and Will Smith later, and Atlanta sealed a 3-2 victory and a commanding 3-1 lead in the Series.

Astros hitters have combined for a meager .206/.291/.298 slash line over the four games against the Braves, with only Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker showing any consistency at the plate. Starting the southpaw Davidson in Game 5 could be a preventative measure on Atlanta’s part against Houston moving the left-handed hitting Tucker up in the batting order, though the Braves have plenty of other left-handed options on their roster.

The lack of production from the usually-reliable lineup is the biggest issue facing the Astros, as their own pitchers have done a solid job of limiting Atlanta’s offense over the last three games, with only one victory to show for it. In Game 1, however, the Braves hit Valdez hard for five runs over two innings, setting up a 6-2 Atlanta win in the Series opener.

It has been a roller-coaster of a playoffs for Valdez, who has been very shaky outside of his eight-inning/one-run gem against the Red Sox in Game 5 of the ALCS. In Valdez’s other three starts this postseason, he has been torched for 11 runs over nine innings of work. With the season on the line for the Astros, manager Dusty Baker may have a relatively quick hook for Valdez at the first sign of trouble, as Houston will have every available arm at the ready to try and get the Series to a sixth game.

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