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Framber Valdez

MLBTR Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss MLBTR’s first edition of the 2025-26 Free Agent Power Rankings, including these focal points…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images

No Extension Talks Between Framber Valdez, Astros

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Framber Valdez and the Astros avoided arbitration by agreeing to an $18MM salary for the 2025 season, though these appear to have been the only contract talks between the two sides this winter.  Valdez said at the start of camp that the club hadn’t yet discussed a long-term deal with his reps at Octagon, and the same has remained true throughout Spring Training, as the left-hander told Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle and other reporters yesterday.

Since Valdez is set for free agency after this season, he answered “Yes, I think so” when asked if he would indeed be testing the market.  There is nothing stopping Valdez and the Astros from negotiating during the season, though most players prefer to end contract talks by Opening Day in order to avoid distractions once play officially gets underway.  Things could be different if the two sides were perhaps restarting talks after some baseline discussions earlier in the offseason, yet Valdez’s comments indicate that the negotiations haven’t even gotten off the ground.

Valdez became a full-time member of Houston’s rotation in 2020, and the southpaw has since become a key part of the team’s success.  He has a 3.12 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate, and a whopping 62.2% grounder rate over 781 innings over the 2020-24 seasons.  That grounder rate is the best of any qualified pitcher in baseball over the last five seasons, and Valdez’s 781 innings are the seventh-most of any pitcher.  A broken finger cost Valdez about two months of the 2021 campaign and he had a minimal IL stint last season due to elbow soreness, but he has otherwise been the picture of health.

The big regular-season workload has been augmented by 85 innings of postseason ball, with Valdez posting a 4.34 ERA over five of Houston’s playoff runs.  While his production has been a little more inconsistent, his best work came in the Astros’ 2022 World Series championship year, when Valdez delivered a 2.07 ERA over 25 innings to help Houston capture a ring.

Assuming Valdez delivers his usual numbers in 2025, he’ll be in line for a significant contract next winter as a front-of-the-rotation arm that offers both durability and experience on the biggest stage in the game.  That said, the left-hander also turns 32 in November, and there are a couple of other red flags that might indicate why the Astros seem reluctant to explore an extension.

Valdez has gotten away with allowing a lot of hard contact, though his .282 BABIP from 2020-24 indicates only a bit of batted-ball luck.  He doesn’t offer a lot of fastball velocity, instead primarily relying on a mix of his very effective slider and curveball to fool batters.  The strikeout and walk rates are both generally above average but neither stand out, putting more pressure on Valdez’s grounder-heavy approach to keep being effective.

Astros GM Dana Brown said in December that the team would listen to what other teams had to say in trade offers for Valdez, though Brown reiterated Valdez’s importance to the rotation and hinted that he’d just be listening to offers out of due diligence more than any real desire to move the left-hander.  As it turned out, the Astros dealt another pending free agent in Kyle Tucker, freeing up some payroll space while creating a hole in the outfield.  It could be that Houston simply got a better offer for Tucker from the Cubs than they got from any other team that called about Valdez, or that the Astros felt it was more important to keep the rotation stable after a lot of injuries hit the pitching staff in 2024.

Houston has been relatively conservative in giving out long-term extensions during its run of success over the last decade.  Two of the more prominent extensions went to pitchers — Cristian Javier’s five-year, $64MM deal just prior to the 2023 season, and Lance McCullers Jr.’s five-year, $85MM deal signed prior to Opening Day 2021.  Neither of these contracts have panned out to date, as McCullers hasn’t pitched in over two seasons due to a variety of injuries, and Javier underwent a Tommy John surgery last June.

As stable and healthy has Valdez has been, those two deals are surely on the minds of Houston’s front office, especially since Valdez will be looking for a much higher salary.  Barring an unexpected change of heart between the two sides, it certainly looks like Valdez will be the latest prominent Astros star to depart in free agency, while the Astros will at least recoup some draft compensation back via the qualifying offer.

Astros Notes: Altuve, Framber, Roster Moves

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The door for an Alex Bregman reunion in Houston closed this week when the former No. 2 overall pick agreed to an opt-out laden three-year deal in Boston. However, the notion of Jose Altuve playing some left field — a concept first floated when the Astros reengaged with Bregman late in the offseason — remains in play even with Bregman headed to the Red Sox. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that even without Bregman, there are plans for Altuve to get some work in left field in at least a part-time capacity.

At this point, it’s not exactly a surprising development. Even as the Astros signaled that a reunion with Bregman was a longshot last week, both general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada spoke on record with the team’s beat about the possibility of Altuve getting some work in left field this year. Espada said on Feb. 4 that Altuve had been working out in the outfield for several weeks, and that while he’s still taking his usual reps at second base, the left field experiment is something the team is indeed considering. Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle and Chandler Rome of The Athletic both touched on the possibility during spring previews for the team earlier this week.

The reasoning behind the concept is fairly straightforward. After years of rating as a high quality defender at second base, including a Gold Glove win in 2015, Altuve has seen his defensive grades plummet in recent seasons. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him at -13 or worse in each of the past three seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average isn’t nearly so bearish on that three-year period but does agree that Altuve has been a negative since 2023, including a grisly -8 mark in 2024.

Altuve’s decline with the glove is particularly problematic when the Astros send Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown to the mound. Valdez’s 60.6% ground-ball rate was the highest in MLB among all qualified starters. Brown isn’t quite so pronounced, but once he incorporated a sinker into his repertoire in mid-May, he posted a 50% grounder rate the rest of the way. Speculatively speaking, if the Astros want to get Altuve some occasional work in the outfield, doing so on days when Brown and especially Valdez take the bump would be prudent. That’s made all the more true by the presence of Mauricio Dubon on the bench. The Astros’ utilityman is a quality defender at multiple spots, but none more so than second base; in 1154 innings there, he’s been credited with 12 DRS and 8 OAA.

Espada said last week that the Astros are aiming to significantly reduce Yordan Alvarez’s time in the outfield after he played 53 games in left last season. Moving Altuve there on a part-time basis could be one way to achieve that goal. If Altuve looks comfortable enough there, it’ll presumably remain an option beyond the current season. He’s entering the first season of a five-year, $125MM extension inked just over one year ago. He’ll earn $30MM each year from 2025-27 before taking home $10MM in both 2028 and 2029. (The contract also contained a $15MM signing bonus.)

That’s one of just two extensions the Astros have worked out since Dana Brown was named the team’s general manager two years ago. Brown has spoken frequently about his desire to get long-term deals with core players hammered out, but Altuve and Cristian Javier are the only two thus far to put pen to paper.

Time will tell whether this spring might bring some additional long-term arrangements, but for the second straight season the ’Stros find themselves with a key player on the cusp of reaching the market. Valdez, set to earn $18MM in 2025, will be a free agent at season’s end. To this point, the left-hander says the team has not yet approached him about signing a long-term deal (link via Kawahara). The 31-year-old southpaw said he’s open to discussing a long-term deal to keep him in Houston but is also ready to take on free agency if the Astros don’t make an overture or if the two sides can’t come to a deal.

Valdez will hit free agency ahead of his age-32 season, which is a year or two later than most top starters. That might cap his earning power to an extent. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Zack Greinke is the only free agent pitcher in the past decade to land a deal of six or more years beginning in his age-32 season. Blake Snell and Jacob deGrom are the only others to secure guarantees of at least five years. A big enough season could put Valdez in line for five years, but even if he’s capped at four, he’d still have a real chance at a $100MM+ contract; there have been ten pitchers in that same time/age bracket who’ve commanded annual salaries of $25MM or more.

Over the past four seasons, Valdez has emerged as a bona fide top-end starter. He’s pitched 710 1/3 innings in that time, logging a combined 3.08 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and enormous 62.4% ground-ball rate. Since 2022, Valdez ranks fifth in the majors in innings pitched despite having fewer starts made than any other pitcher in the top 10. That’s a testament to his ability to work deep into games. He’s averaged better than 6 1/3 innings per appearance in those three years — a rare feat in today’s era of avoiding three trips through the order and prioritizing impactful bullpen arms.

At this point, an extension (or multiple extensions) might be all that’s left in terms of major additions. Asked this week about the potential for further additions to the roster, Brown noted that he’s always looking for more pitching but downplayed the possibility of anything coming together (link via Kawahara). “…Right now, our roster’s pretty good,” Brown added. “I think we’re pretty much in shape to be in position to win this division.”

Astros, Framber Valdez Avoid Arbitration

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The Astros and left-hander Framber Valdez have agreed to an $18MM salary to avoid arbitration, per a report from Chandler Rome of The Athletic. The deal comes in just $200K over Valdez’s $17.8MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and represents a $5.9MM raise over Valdez’s 2024 salary. Valdez is represented by Octagon.

The 31-year-old southpaw was dominant as ever for Houston last season. In 28 starts for the club, Valdez posted an excellent 2.91 ERA in 176 1/3 innings of work with a 3.25 FIP while striking out 24% of opponents and walking just 7.8%. Perhaps most impressively, Valdez generated an excellent 60.6% groundball rate that led all qualified major league hurlers this year. While Valdez was snubbed from making his third career All-Star appearance, the lefty finished in the top ten of AL Cy Young award voting for the third consecutive season and even earned some down-ballot consideration for the AL MVP award. That strong performance earned Valdez a deal that comes in slightly above projections ahead for his final season before he hits free agency in the fall.

If there was a downside to Valdez’s strong 2024 campaign, it was his health early in the year. The lefty missed most of April due to a bout of elbow soreness that sent him to the shelf after just two starts. While even the mildest elbow issues can cause alarm among fans due to their association with Tommy John surgery, Valdez evidently wasn’t slowed down significantly by the issue. While he made just 28 starts this year as opposed to 31 the prior two seasons, he was healthy and effective as always after returning to the mound on April 28 and showed no signs of losing steam as the year dragged on. In fact, it was just the opposite. While much of the Astros rotation was plagued with injury issues throughout the summer as they struggled to come back from an early-season deficit in the standings, Valdez was utterly dominant down the stretch with a 1.96 ERA in 12 starts after the All-Star break that helped Houston pull away from the Mariners in the AL West late in the second half.

In 2025, Valdez figures to be the club’s undisputed ace with future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander having departed for San Francisco in free agency. He’ll lead a rotation that also figures to include Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, and Hayden Wesneski to open the season, with additional help from Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. expected later in the year. The losses of Verlander and outfielder Kyle Tucker along with the all-but-official departure of longtime third baseman Alex Bregman and the possibility of trading veteran reliever Ryan Pressly leave the Astros looking quite different as compared to the club that won the World Series in 2022, and with Valdez just one year from free agency things could look even more different this time next year.

Earlier this winter, there were questions over whether Valdez would remain in Houston for the 2025 or if the club would deal him ahead of his final year of team control as they had Tucker. Those rumors have died down at this point, however, and the club now plans to keep him in the fold for the coming season. It’s unclear how seriously the Astros will pursue a reunion with Valdez when he reaches free agency next season; at one point the sides engaged in extension talks but the same could be said for both Bregman and Tucker, both of whom will be playing elsewhere next season. In the meantime, the Astros have brought in Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker to help bolster the offense, as they try to get back to the ALCS in 2025 after failing to make it there last year for the first time since 2016.

Astros Telling Teams They Don’t Intend To Trade Framber Valdez

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The Astros are telling opposing teams they do not intend to trade left-hander Framber Valdez, writes Jeff Passan of ESPN. Houston’s ace had come up in trade rumors at the Winter Meetings.

In response to a question regarding the availability of Valdez and Kyle Tucker, general manager Dana Brown said he was willing to “listen on all the players.” That proved a precursor for the Tucker blockbuster, which dropped a few days later and subsequently lessened the financial pressure for the Astros to move Valdez. After the Tucker deal, Brown said that he didn’t anticipate trading Valdez but would continue listening to offers.

There could be semantics at play. Few players around the league are truly untouchable. There’s presumably some point at which an offer would compel them to consider moving Valdez. For now, however, it seems they’re unwilling to do so. The two-time All-Star is set to return to the top of a rotation that’ll also include Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and likely Spencer Arrighetti. Righties Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. could be back by Opening Day, while J.P. France could return midseason. Hayden Wesneski, acquired in the Tucker trade, can compete for a rotation or multi-inning relief role.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Valdez for a $17.8MM salary during his final arbitration season. Brown said last week that there’d been no recent extension talks. The southpaw is trending towards walking in free agency on a nine-figure deal. While Houston didn’t want that to happen with Tucker, they were content to allow George Springer and Carlos Correa to depart as free agents. Alex Bregman could follow suit. They’d recoup a draft choice if Valdez walks after declining a qualifying offer, which he’d surely do if he enjoys a 2025 season that’s in line with his lofty standards. That’s less valuable than what they’d receive in trade, but they’re weighing that against the desire to win the AL West again in 2025.

Brown expressed optimism that the Astros would be able to take the division even if they traded one of Tucker or Valdez. The return package reflected that balance. Cam Smith immediately became the top prospect in a weak farm system, while Isaac Paredes and Wesneski jump right onto the MLB roster.

Valdez is coming off a 2.91 ERA showing across 176 1/3 innings. That marked his fourth consecutive year with an ERA south of 3.50. Valdez has finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting for three seasons running. He has topped 175 frames in each of those years.

Astros’ GM Discusses Valdez, Bregman

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Astros general manager Dana Brown met with reporters shortly after the team finalized its biggest trade in years. In the wake of sending Kyle Tucker to the Cubs for Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith, Brown spoke about what’s next.

Most notably, he downplayed the chance of moving ace Framber Valdez. He indicated the front office continues to be open to offers on anyone but suggested he didn’t find it likely they’ll move the star lefty. “We’re not aggressively trying to move him, but we’ll listen,” Brown told reporters (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). “If you ask me if (I) think we’re going to trade Valdez, I don’t think we’re trading Valdez. I think he’s (a) pillar, and it’s really tough to keep a rotation intact, and we really feel like he’s going to be an important one in our rotation.”

Valdez and Tucker were each thrust into trade rumors on Monday, when Brown replied to a question on their availability by saying the team would “listen on all the players.” Today’s comments don’t refute that, though the Astros seem less motivated to pursue trade talks on Valdez now that they’ve moved Tucker. One of the primary motivations for trading either player was offloading their expensive projected salaries for their final season of arbitration. The Tucker trade should save the Astros around $9MM — the difference between the projections for Tucker’s and Paredes’ salaries — and drops their projected luxury tax number to roughly $225MM (courtesy of RosterResource). That puts them around $16MM shy of the base threshold.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Valdez for a $17.8MM salary. The Astros shouldn’t have as much of a desire to offload that money. Perhaps they will reconsider if they receive an offer that takes the general shape of the Tucker trade and allows them to acquire MLB help and at least one prospect of note. Brown acknowledged today that the club hasn’t had any extension talks with Valdez since last year, so they’re probably not optimistic about the chance of keeping him beyond next season. They’re still aiming to win the AL West in 2025, though, so they’re not going to move Valdez strictly for minor league talent.

Brown was also naturally asked how the Tucker trade impacts their pursuit of Alex Bregman. While there could be a few million dollars more to offer Bregman in the short term, landing Paredes gives the Astros a fallback at third base which they’d previously lacked. Brown indicated the Tucker trade doesn’t have much impact on the Bregman bidding. “Pretty much, Alex Bregman’s status [remains] the way it is,” he stated (link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). “Nothing has changed since the last time I’ve talked to you guys. … It’s still pretty much the same where we were Tuesday.”

There’s still room for Bregman on the roster. Paredes has played nearly 400 career innings at first base. He’s a serviceable defender at third base, but his profile is built around his bat. He wouldn’t lose a ton of value if he moves to the other side of the diamond. Houston needs first base help. They’d probably run a Jon Singleton and Zach Dezenzo platoon if the season opened today.

Brown acknowledged that the team was looking for a bat. They’re not going to find anyone of Tucker’s caliber, of course, but there’s still a decent amount of talent available in both the first base and corner outfield markets. Chandler Rome of the Athletic writes that Houston is looking for a left-handed hitting outfielder, in particular, as a direct replacement for the role Tucker filled.

The GM told Rome and other reporters that the Astros expect for Chas McCormick to open the season in right field while Jake Meyers plays center. He left the door open for a left field acquisition. Switch-hitter Jurickson Profar and lefty-swinging Max Kepler and Alex Verdugo are speculative possibilities who remain unsigned.

Astros Not Ruling Out Potential Trades of Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez

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6:35pm: In a full column at The Athletic, Rome writes that the Astros have unsurprisingly received calls on Tucker. He indicates that none of those discussions have become serious but reports that Brown is indeed willing to consider moving one of the two players if the right opportunity presents itself.

6:20pm: Astros general manager Dana Brown met with reporters this evening at the Winter Meetings. In addition to reiterating their longstanding desire to re-sign Alex Bregman, Brown left the door at least slightly open to trading one of his star players.

In response to a question about the team’s willingness to field interest in Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez, Brown replied he “would listen on all the players” (X link with video via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). It doesn’t seem they’re actively shopping either, however.

“We’ll listen on anybody. We’re not trying to aggressively move anybody out the door… If it doesn’t make sense, we wouldn’t do it,” Brown expanded (relayed on X by Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). “So it really would have to make sense. Because right now we’re a good team and we’re not motivated to move any of these guys.”

An open-mindedness to conversation isn’t a declaration that either player is on the block. It still seems likelier than not that both will begin next season in Houston. That said, there’s at least a little bit of chatter about the possibility of the Astros pulling off a blockbuster. Chandler Rome of the Athletic floated the idea last week, pointing out that it’d open a fair amount of immediate payroll space while helping to replenish a poor farm system. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network tweets that there’s “some buzz” around the Meetings regarding the potential for a Tucker trade, in particular.

Both players would net a strong return. They’re each down to their final year of arbitration but are among the best in baseball at their respective positions. Tucker, whom MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects for a $15.8MM salary, hit 23 home runs in only 78 games this year. He slashed .289/.408/.585 across 339 plate appearances. A nagging right leg injury cost him a few months, but Tucker’s rate production was the best of his career. He’s one of the game’s five to 10 best hitters and trending towards a free agent deal that could push near $400MM.

There’s little to suggest the Astros are going to make a push to sign Tucker to that kind of contract. Even if they expect him to walk in 12 months, a trade would be a tough sell. Houston is trying to win another AL West title. They wouldn’t come close to replacing Tucker’s production if they move him. They’re already thin in the outfield, where Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers are the other projected starters. Yordan Alvarez could see time in left field, but manager Joe Espada said today the Astros were hoping to scale back his outfield work to give him more reps at designated hitter (X link via Rome).

Valdez probably wouldn’t bring quite the same return as Tucker. He’d arguably be easier to replace, though the Astros would be placing a lot of faith in injury returnees Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. to do so. The southpaw is coming off a 2.91 ERA showing through 176 2/3 innings. Valdez has topped 175 frames in three straight years. He hasn’t allowed an ERA above 3.45 in any of those seasons. While his strikeout rates are more good than great, Valdez posts elite ground-ball numbers.

Swartz projects Valdez for a $17.8MM salary in his final arbitration year. That’s a notable sum but still well below what he’d make for one season if he were a free agent. (Frankie Montas just signed for $17MM annually over two seasons, for example.) Valdez is going into his age-31 season and could be limited to a five-year free agent contract, but he’s on track for a deal that lands well north of $100MM. The Astros have a better chance of re-signing him than they do of keeping Tucker, but neither player seems especially likely to remain in Houston after next season.

How Could The Astros Create Payroll Space?

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For months, the Astros have expressed hope they’ll re-sign Alex Bregman. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com wrote this afternoon that they’ve made a six-year, $156MM offer — supporting recent reporting from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale about the club’s comfort zone. Nightengale and McTaggart each suggest that Bregman’s camp was hoping to land closer to $200MM at least.

With a significant gap between the sides, it’s worth examining the organization’s payroll. RosterResource calculates Houston’s competitive balance tax number at nearly $234MM. That’s $7MM shy of next season’s $241MM base threshold. Re-signing Bregman would push them well into CBT territory. Even if they balk at his asking price, they’d need to be willing to pay the tax to make any notable upgrades unless they ship out salary.

The luxury tax isn’t a firm limit. Owner Jim Crane allowed the front office to push into tax territory this year. He has suggested he’s willing to do so again if the organization feels they’re targeting the correct players. Offering Bregman a $26MM average annual value reinforces that, even if it wasn’t a proposal the two-time All-Star was likely to accept.

The Astros seemed to be up against their limit late last winter. Once they lost Kendall Graveman to shoulder surgery, ownership signed off on a surprising $95MM contract for Josh Hader. Maybe they’ll eventually do the same to retain Bregman. That’d be easier to envision if they managed to offload salary in a trade, especially since they’d face escalating penalties for paying the luxury tax in consecutive years. How could they go about cutting spending?

The Astros have $142MM in guaranteed contracts for next season. They’d have a tough time moving most of those deals. They’re not trading Jose Altuve ($30MM) or Yordan Alvarez ($15MM). There’s little incentive to sell low on Cristian Javier ($10MM) midway through Tommy John rehab. Trading Hader ($19MM) after one season of a five-year deal isn’t happening. Lance McCullers Jr.’s injury history means they wouldn’t find a taker for his $17MM salary without paying the contract down almost the entire way.

Houston can’t trade any portion of the $19.5MM they owe to José Abreu after releasing him. They could technically trade Rafael Montero, who remains in the organization after being outrighted from the 40-man roster. No one’s letting them off the hook for any part of his $11.5MM salary, though. That’s $122MM in commitments to players who have almost no chance of being moved.

Of the players on guaranteed deals, the only realistic trade options are Victor Caratini and Ryan Pressly. Caratini is making an affordable $6MM as a quality complement to Yainer Diaz behind the plate. The Astros could find a taker, but they’d probably need to subsequently commit $3-4MM to sign a backup catcher. Moving Caratini wouldn’t make much of a difference in the Bregman bidding.

As we noted when we named Pressly the offseason’s #14 trade candidate, offloading the reliever’s $14MM salary is the most straightforward option. It’s one the front office has considered. A Pressly trade is a strong possibility, but it’s not inevitable. It’d deal a hit to their bullpen, for one. Pressly also has full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player. If he doesn’t want to move, he’s staying.

That leaves their arbitration group. Houston has one of the biggest arbitration classes in the league. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects them for a combined salary nearing $54MM. They’re mostly key players. Houston’s arb class breaks down as follows (the salaries are projections, not finalized numbers).

Most of those players are making between $2-5MM. Trading someone like Dubón or Meyers is plausible, but as with a potential Caratini move, it’s not especially consequential from a payroll perspective. If Houston wanted to clear significant money from their arbitration class, the clearest way would be to move one of Tucker or Valdez.

This week, Chandler Rome of the Athletic floated the idea of the Astros entertaining a Valdez or Tucker trade. To be clear, that was framed as speculation, not defined reporting that the Astros are actually considering it. Tucker and Valdez are each one year from free agency. Rome points out that they’re trending towards contracts that Crane has traditionally been reluctant to approve — especially Tucker. He argues that the Astros could use one of Tucker or Valdez to add talent to a thin farm system while remaining a contender for another AL West crown. That’s especially true if the Astros use the extra payroll room to finish a deal with Bregman.

Of the two, Valdez would probably be slightly easier to replace. After a terrible April, Hunter Brown pitched like a top-of-the-rotation starter. Ronel Blanco fired 167 1/3 innings of 2.80 ERA ball in a breakout season. Garcia could be ready for Opening Day after losing the ’24 season to Tommy John surgery. Before his injury, he was a quality mid-rotation starter. The same is true of McCullers, although his injury history over the past three seasons makes him difficult to rely upon. Spencer Arrighetti showed the ability to miss bats and quietly posted an excellent finish in 2024; over his final 13 starts, he pitched 76 innings with a 3.08 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. J.P. France could be back later in the year after losing this season to a shoulder procedure. He’s a capable back-end arm if healthy.

Trading Valdez would subtract the Astros’ most reliable source of innings, to be sure. Yet a starting five of Brown, Garcia, Blanco, Arrighetti and some combination of McCullers and France has decent upside. The Astros would probably need to add rotation help at the deadline for a second straight year, but it wouldn’t be a disastrous group to open the season. They’d need to be more aggressive in stockpiling non-roster depth than they have been in prior offseasons. They could also target at least one near-MLB pitching prospect if they were to seriously consider a Valdez trade.

Moving Tucker is a much harder sell. Even if the Astros don’t think there’s much chance they’ll re-sign him, they’d take a huge downgrade to their 2025 lineup. Tucker could be a top 5-10 hitter in MLB next season. His foot injury was a source of frustration this year, but there’s no way to replace the kind of production (.289/.408/.585 with 23 homers in 339 plate appearances) they’d be losing. The outfield is already a relative weak point after McCormick underperformed this year.

None of this is to say a Tucker or Valdez trade is likely. Indeed, there’s no indication the Astros have given either scenario serious thought. If they find it more difficult than expected to line up a Pressly trade, there’s at least an argument for them thinking bigger to create some spending capacity.

Astros Considering Six-Man Rotation

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Facing a daunting stretch of 29 games in 30 days, the Astros have considered moving to a six-man rotation for at least the next month, manager Joe Espada said last night (X link via The Athletic’s Chandler Rome).

Houston has gotten out to its worst start in recent memory, with the woeful performance from the starting rotation among the primary reasons driving their 11-20 record. The ’Stros got Justin Verlander back a couple weeks ago after he missed several weeks building up in the wake of some early-spring shoulder fatigue, but his return dovetailed with a neck injury for righty Cristian Javier. There’s optimism Javier will return soon and push the rotation group to six, as KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander tweets that the right-hander will embark on a minor league rehab assignment this weekend.

Even with an early no-hitter from breakout righty Ronel Blanco, Astros starters rank 27th in MLB with a 4.91 ERA. Houston’s rotation is tied for 22nd with a 21% strikeout rate and has the second-highest walk rate of any team in the game at 11.2%, trailing only the Mets. Those ugly K-BB numbers don’t lead fielding-independent numbers to be any more optimistic; the Astros’ rotation ranks 22nd in FIP (4.22) and 28th in SIERA (4.53).

Verlander’s return helped to shore things up, but the ’Stros have gotten dismal performances from right-handers J.P. France, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Blair Henley (the latter of whom made just one spot start early in the year).

France’s lack of strikeouts and pedestrian command always made some regression from last year’s 3.83 ERA in 23 starts seem likely, but he’s fallen off more than even skeptics could’ve reasonably expected. He’s been rocked for a 7.46 ERA in 25 1/3 innings thanks to a walk rate that’s spiked from 8.1% to 9.9% and a home-run rate that’s ballooned to 1.76 HR/9. He’s still doing a nice job avoiding hard contact, but when opponents have managed to barrel him up, the results have been disastrous — and the increased walk rate has meant there’s more runners on base for those worst-case outcomes.

Brown looked like a Rookie of the Year candidate for a portion of the 2023 season, but the former top prospect wilted as the year wore on. Like France, his walk and home-run rates have spiked in worrying fashion; he posted an 8.3% walk rate and 1.50 HR/9 last year but is now sitting at 12.2% and 1.96, respectively. He’s not inducing anywhere near as many chases off the plate as he did in ’23, and his swinging-strike rate has dropped from 10.6% to a well below-average 9%. He’s not doing himself many favors early in the count, either. The league-average pitcher has thrown a first-pitch strike at a 62.1% clip in 2024. Brown is at 52.2%.

The 24-year-old Arrighetti made his big league debut this season but hasn’t found much success through his first four starts. He did enjoy the best start of his young career last night, holding the Guardians to a pair of runs in 5 2/3 innings, but that only dropped his ERA to 8.27. Arrighetti has punched out a strong 25.9% of his opponents and has some rotten luck on balls in play (.438 BABIP), but his 12.3% walk rate (plus another plunked batter) has worked against him as well.

Each of Verlander, Blanco, Javier and Framber Valdez has pitched well when healthy this season, but Houston also has Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy on the injured list alongside Javier at the moment. (Valdez also recently missed two weeks due to elbow inflammation.) The team knew McCullers and Garcia would open the season on the shelf after each underwent surgery last summer, but the Astros still didn’t take any real steps to deepen their rotation over the winter.

Assuming Javier is able to return in relatively short order, the presumptive six-man rotation would include Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Brown, Blanco and one of France or Arrighetti. Houston will need some combination of rebounds from Brown and/or France and a big step forward from Arrighetti (or another minor league starter) if they hope to turn their fortunes. If the Astros are indeed able to pull back into the race, they could get some needed reinforcements from Urquidy, McCullers and Garcia when they’re healthy.

That internal cavalry will be pivotal, as Houston’s $241MM payroll is already a franchise record. Owner Jim Crane had only crossed the luxury tax threshold once prior to this season, and the ’Stros now sit less than $2MM shy of the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. There’s no guarantee Crane will want to pour more money into the team by way of deadline acquisitions — particularly if the Astros are more of a fringe contender than a clear playoff favorite when late July rolls around.

Astros To Activate Framber Valdez On Sunday, Option J.P. France

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Astros manager Joe Espada informed members of the club’s beat, including Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that left-hander Framber Valdez will be activated off the injured list to start Sunday’s game against the Rockies in Mexico City. Rome also reports (X link) that right-hander J.P. France will be optioned in a corresponding move.

The news is obviously great for Valdez personally. He and the club got a scare when he landed on the injured list earlier this month due to soreness in his throwing elbow. It’s always a concerning element when a pitcher’s throwing elbow is injured but a number of high-profile pitchers requiring season-ending surgery this year only heightened the worry.

Thankfully, it seems Valdez avoided a really serious injury. He started throwing again shortly after being placed on the IL and will now be quickly activated, just barely over the 15-day minimum and without requiring a rehab assignment.

The news is also great for the team, as the Astros have been scrambling to fill their rotation all season along. They came into they year knowing they would be without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia, since they each underwent significant elbow surgeries last year and won’t be available until midseason at the earliest. But the rotation was further thinned out during Spring Training when Justin Verlander and José Urquidy each landed on the injured list.

Valdez then landed on the injured list a few weeks ago, further depleting the rotation mix. Verlander returned to health and rejoined the club about a week ago, but then Cristian Javier swapped places with him, landing on the IL due to neck discomfort. Now that Valdez is back, he’ll slot into the rotation next to Verlander, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti.

France being sent down registers as a surprise. He’s certainly not out to an amazing start to the season, with a 7.46 earned run average through five starts. But he did quite well last year, with a 3.83 ERA in 136 1/3 innings. He may have been challenged to maintain those kinds of results going forward, as his 17.4% strikeout rate was a bit below average last year, but he’s actually increased his strikeout rate to 18.2% this year.

His struggles in the early going could perhaps be a bit based on luck. His .289 batting average on balls in play last year has ticked up to .321 this season, while his strand rate has gone from 76.7% to 62.2%. His 5.52 FIP and 4.95 SIERA both suggest he deserved to have slightly better results than what he actually got.

Beyond looking at France in a vacuum, it’s also surprising to see him as the corresponding move when considering the other options. Both Brown and Arrighetti still have options and each has allowed more earned runs than innings pitched this year. Brown had a 9.68 ERA through five outings while Arrighetti has a 10.97 ERA through three.

A deeper look perhaps sheds some light on the decision, however. Arrighetti has struck out 25.9% of batters faced, far more than France. His 12.1% walk rate is certainly on the high side but he’s also been victimized by a .500 BABIP and 52.8% strand rate. His 3.81 FIP and 4.04 SIERA are actually quite serviceable.

Brown’s rate stats for the year aren’t amazing but his numbers are also heavily skewed by one nightmare outing in which he allowed nine runs on 11 hits against the Royals while only recording two outs. Perhaps the Astros are giving him the benefit of the doubt since he had a 26.8% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 52.4% ground ball rate last year. Perhaps the club will speak on their reasoning in the coming days.

The diminished rotation is a huge reason why the Astros are out to its worst start in years. They are currently 7-19, the worst club in the American League apart from the White Sox. Their starters have a collective 5.21 ERA, which is better than just the White Sox and Rockies out of the 30 MLB clubs. Valdez has a 3.38 ERA in his career and should help stabilize the group as long as he’s pitching like his usual self. If Javier and Urquidy are able to come back soon, that could further strengthen things.

Elsewhere on the roster, the team is allowed a 27th man for the Mexico City Series, though it has to be a position player. Per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, the Astros will have first baseman/outfielder Trey Cabbage as their extra body.

It’s unclear if the Astros intend to have Cabbage around for just the games in Mexico or a longer stay, but it will perhaps be a situation worth monitoring since the club has been getting atrocious production from the first base spot this year. Earlier this week, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at the struggles of José Abreu, who is now hitting .065/.132/.081 on the year. Jon Singleton has started in Abreu’s place a few times lately. His line of .244/.326/.293 is far better than Abreu’s but is still below average, translating to a 88 wRC+.

Cabbage has generally hit a ton in the minors but also had his share of strikeout problems, a trend that has continued this year. Acquired from the Angels in the offseason, Cabbage has struck out in 31.9% of his Triple-A plate appearances this year and also walked in 23.1% of them. He has three home runs and is hitting .271/.440/.486 for a 137 wRC+ while also stealing seven bases. That’s pretty similar production to his time in Triple-A last year, when he hit 30 home runs, stole 32 bases and struck out 30% of the time.

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