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The Opener: Brewers Payroll, Big Bats In Boston, Orioles Pitching

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As you pick through the Thanksgiving leftovers, here are a few things to monitor on Friday…

1. Financial constraints in Milwaukee

Will Sammon, Ken Rosenthal, and Katie Woo of The Athletic dropped a report yesterday about Milwaukee’s payroll concerns heading into next season. The trio wondered if financial challenges could lead to a Freddy Peralta deal. The right-hander is in the final year of his contract and is slated to make $8MM next season. Brandon Woodruff’s acceptance of the qualifying offer gives the Brewers another option in the rotation if they move Peralta, though both Brewers owner Mark Attanasio and president of baseball operations Matt Arnold described Woodruff’s return and a potential Peralta trade as “independent decisions.” There have been several instances of Milwaukee trading star players before they hit free agency, including  Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes, and Devin Williams.

2. Red Sox eyeing Alonso, Okamoto

We knew Boston was looking for more thump in the middle of the order, as chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said as much earlier this month. Jon Heyman of the New York Post linked the team to Pete Alonso and Kazuma Okamoto on Thursday. Alonso has been one of the premier home run hitters in the league since his 2019 debut, leaving the yard at least 34 times in each full season of his career (excluding the shortened 2020 campaign). Alonso signed a two-year deal to return to the Mets last offseason. He opted out of the second year of the pact in early November. Okamoto has delivered solid power contributions in the NPB since 2018. The Yomiuri Giants posted him last week. The addition of either Alonso or Okamoto, who are both corner infielders, could make a Triston Casas trade more likely.

3. Orioles looking at top starters

Heyman also reported that Baltimore is keeping tabs on Framber Valdez and Tatsuya Imai at the highest tier of the free agent starting pitching market. Dylan Cease was also on the list, but he signed with AL East rival Toronto. Heyman mentioned Michael King and Zac Gallen as fallback options for the Orioles. The club sent Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels for Taylor Ward, further thinning a starting rotation that already had depth concerns. Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish will headline the staff heading into 2026, but beyond innings-eater Dean Kremer, the unit has plenty of question marks. Some kind of addition, even in the Gallen range, seems like a decent possibility.

Photo courtesy of Jim Rassol, Imagn Images

Orioles Showing Interest In Kyle Schwarber, Tatsuya Imai, Framber Valdez

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Earlier this month, Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias said his team is open to signing free agents who have rejected a qualifying offer, and would therefore cost the O’s their third-highest selection in the 2026 draft in addition to whatever the free agent would command in salary.  Of the nine players who rejected the QO, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Baltimore has shown some interest in Framber Valdez, Kyle Schwarber, and Dylan Cease (before Cease signed with the Blue Jays yesterday).  In addition to qualified free agents, the Orioles have “checked in on” Tatsuya Imai, as part of the team’s explorations of the upper tiers of the pitching market.

Heyman also linked Baltimore to Pete Alonso a couple of weeks ago, but now notes that the chances of a signing may have dimmed since the Orioles retained Ryan Mountcastle past the non-tender deadline.  This doesn’t mean that Mountcastle couldn’t still be traded or cut loose entirely if a premium bat became a realistic option for Baltimore, though Elias said earlier this week that the team thinks Mountcastle can rebound after a hamstring strain hampered his production in 2025.

Signing Alonso or Schwarber would further deepen what is already perhaps an overcrowded mix of position players in Baltimore.  Schwarber can play a corner outfield spot on an occasional basis but is largely a DH-only player at this stage of his career, further reducing the Orioles’ flexibility in trying to find at-bats for the rest of its current players.  A trade or two might ease up this logjam, of course, and the Orioles could then acquire pitching via the trade market rather than free agency.

Even if a Schwarber or an Alonso creates some questions about lineup construction, the Orioles would happily accept that as a proverbial “good problem to have” if it means adding an elite power bat.  Schwarber and Alonso are also both known to be clubhouse leaders, and adding a veteran mentor to a young O’s team might carry benefits beyond just what either player can provide at the plate.

There is a widespread belief that the Phillies will pay top dollar to re-sign Schwarber, but naturally that hasn’t stopped other teams from looking into his market.  The Orioles join the Red Sox and Pirates as teams known to have shown interest in Schwarber’s services, and clubs like the Reds and Yankees have been more speculatively linked.  Alonso’s market hasn’t been as robust in terms of public interest, though the Mets remain in the mix for another reunion with their longtime slugger.

The Orioles have already added one prominent bat this offseason by acquiring Taylor Ward from the Angels for Grayson Rodriguez, in a move that surprised some pundits since it further reduced the Orioles’ list of rotation options.  This could indicate that if the O’s do break the bank on a big-ticket signing, it will be for a starting pitcher to help stabilize the rotation.  Cease’s rather quick departure from the market (and to an AL East rival) only puts more pressure on the Orioles to find another frontline arm.

Valdez or Imai would certainly fit the bill, albeit in two different fashions.  Valdez is a proven commodity at the MLB level, and is particularly a known quantity to Elias since Valdez joined the Astros organization as an international signing and then broke into the majors when Elias was still working in Houston’s front office.  Imai is over four and a half years younger than Valdez and perhaps has more pure upside based on his results in Japan, but it remains to be seen if Imai can translate that success over to the majors.  The O’s also don’t have a long track record in signing Japanese talent, though the club did add Tomoyuki Sugano last winter.

Tyler O’Neill’s three-year, $49.5MM contract remains the only multi-year free agent deal the Orioles have signed during Elias’ seven years running the front office, though in fairness, much of Elias’ tenure was spent either rebuilding or working under some ownership turmoil.  David Rubenstein’s purchase of the franchise in early 2024 didn’t immediately lead to a huge payroll boost, though the club did ink star prospect Samuel Basallo to an eight-year, $67MM extension this past summer.  Basallo and O’Neill represent the only contracts on Baltimore’s books beyond 2026, and while the Orioles certainly have interest in locking up other young stars to extensions, there is plenty of future financial room for the O’s to make a splashy signing (or two) this winter.

Nine Players Reject Qualifying Offer

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The deadline to accept the qualifying offer has passed. Four players — Trent Grisham, Gleyber Torres, Brandon Woodruff, and Shota Imanaga — chose to accept the one-year, $22.025MM deal and remain with their current clubs. The remaining nine players rejected the deal. They are: Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker, Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber, Blue Jays infielder Bo Bichette, Astros lefty Framber Valdez, Padres righty Dylan Cease, Phillies lefty Ranger Suarez, Mets closer Edwin Diaz, Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen, and Padres righty Michael King. All nine are now free agents.

There’s not much surprise in any of the nine players who rejected. Tucker, Schwarber, Bichette, Valdez, Cease, Suarez and Diaz were all locks. Gallen may have given some brief thought to accepting after a rough showing in 2025, but he finished strong and has a track record as a high-end starter who’s garnered multiple top-five finishes in NL Cy Young balloting. King was hobbled by nerve and knee injuries in an odd season but was dominant in 2023-24 and through the first two months of the current season. He was healthy late in the year and fanned three in his lone inning of postseason work. He’ll test the waters in search of a multi-year deal as well.

Now that this nonet has rejected qualifying offers, they’ll all be subject to draft compensation. Interested teams will need to surrender a draft pick (or multiple picks) and, in some cases, space from their bonus pool for international amateurs in order to sign any of this group. The extent of that draft compensation depends on the revenue-sharing and luxury tax status of the new team. MLBTR broke down which pick(s) each club would forfeit by signing a “qualified” free agent last month.

Similarly, the compensation for each player’s former club is dependent on revenue-sharing and luxury tax status — as well as the size of the contract signed by the player in question. MLBTR also ran through the compensation each team would receive if their qualified free agents turned down the offer and signed elsewhere.

Orioles Pursuing Prominent Pitching Upgrades, Open To Signing Qualifying Offer Recipients

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On the heels of a disappointing 2025 season, Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias is striking a much more aggressive tenor in his early media appearances this offseason than last. Baltimore’s baseball ops leader candidly acknowledged this week that he’s hopeful of adding a starter who can give his team “innings and front-half-of-the-rotation stuff” as well as a reliever “who has closer experience” (links via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner and Jake Rill of MLB.com. Just as notably, Elias voiced that he is “fully prepared” to forfeit draft pick(s) to sign free agents who have rejected a qualifying offer.

It’s a notable departure from Baltimore’s 2024-25 offseason. The O’s made a multi-year offer to Corbin Burnes that wasn’t accepted. It’s not clear how many — if any — other free agents received multi-year offers from the Orioles.

Ultimately, Elias & Co. handed out almost exclusively one-year deals, signing Charlie Morton ($15MM), Tomoyuki Sugano ($13MM), Andrew Kittredge ($10MM), Gary Sanchez ($8.5MM), Ramon Laureano ($4MM) and Dylan Carlson ($975K) for the 2025 season. Outfielder Tyler O’Neill was the lone recipient of a multi-year guarantee, landing three years and $49.5MM. Even that deal came with an opt-out opportunity following the 2025 season.

O’Neill was not only the lone multi-year free agent signing for the Orioles last winter — he’s the only free agent Elias has signed to a multi-year deal in seven offseasons leading Baltimore’s baseball operations. For much of that time, the team has been rebuilding, which helps to explain the lack of a multi-year investment. Elias told Darragh McDonald in a recent guest appearance on the MLBTR Podcast that there’s no organizational aversion to multi-year free agent deals, they simply haven’t lined up on one during his tenure.

At least based on his early comments, Elias seems more resolute in his efforts to pursue higher-end talent. The O’s have a pair of notable arms in Kyle Bradish and the resurgent Trevor Rogers atop their rotation, but Rogers is a free agent next winter and Bradish only returned from Tommy John surgery this past summer. Voicing a preference to sign someone who can pitch in the “front half” of the rotation and expressing a willingness to punt draft picks both signal a more aggressive playbook this winter.

On the free agent side of things, the market has several interesting names. Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Michael King, Brandon Woodruff and Zac Gallen all received qualifying offers. None are expected to accept. NPB star Tatsuya Imai will also be posted for MLB clubs, adding a 28-year-old wild card to the mix. Notably, Elias was the Astros’ scouting director when the team signed Valdez as an amateur in 2016. The two overlapped in Houston’s organization for a couple years.

On the trade side of the coin, there are a number of high-profile arms likely to be available. Much as it pains fans of pitching-hungry clubs, there’s minimal chance the Tigers will trade Tarik Skubal. The Brewers seem inclined to hang onto Freddy Peralta. Twins president Derek Falvey has said he plans to add to the roster until he’s told otherwise, which casts some doubt on the immediate availability of Joe Ryan and/or Pablo Lopez. But the market still includes names like MacKenzie Gore, Sonny Gray, Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera and Mitch Keller, among others.

Broadly speaking, whether it’s via free agency or trade, there’s benefit in the Orioles adding a starter who’s controlled/signed beyond 2026. Rogers, as mentioned, is a free agent next winter. Righties Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells will be free agents after the 2027 season. There’s little doubting the pure talent of righty Grayson Rodriguez, but by the time Opening Day 2026 rolls around, he’ll be 20 months removed from pitching in a big league game. There’s very little long-term stability in the group.

As for the relief market, the number of qualified free agents is far lower. Devin Williams didn’t receive a QO from the Yankees. Robert Suarez didn’t get one from the Padres. Edwin Diaz was the only reliever tagged with a QO. That said, there are a number of a high-profile names from which to choose. Diaz, Suarez, Williams, Ryan Helsley, Raisel Iglesias, Kyle Finnegan and Pete Fairbanks all have extensive closing experience in the majors. If the preference is a one-year deal, 38-year-old Kenley Jansen keeps getting the job done even as he inches closer to his 40th birthday.

Whoever ends up emerging as the priority, payroll shouldn’t be an issue. The only players guaranteed anything beyond the 2026 season are O’Neill and catcher Samuel Basallo, who inked a long-term extension just days after making his MLB debut. They’re owed a combined $17.5MM in 2027. After ’27, Basallo’s eight-year, $67MM deal is the only contract on the books. It’d be a surprise to see the Orioles sign a high-end starter and a prominent reliever to multi-year deals, but only because they haven’t operated that way in quite some time. Payroll-wise, there’s no reason they couldn’t bring in a pair of prominent free agents.

Elias also suggested that the O’s will be on the lookout for an additional option in center field. While he praised Colton Cowser’s long-term outlook and expressed confidence that the 25-year-old (26 next March) can handle the position defensively, Baltimore’s president also noted that “you can’t get through the year with one center fielder.”

A reunion with Cedric Mullins seems unlikely, as he’ll presumably want everyday at-bats (or close to it) wherever he goes, while the O’s have O’Neill, Cowser and Dylan Beavers already in the mix for playing time, to say nothing of recently signed Leody Taveras and former top prospect Heston Kjerstad. Enrique Bradfield Jr., the No. 17 overall pick in 2023 and one of the system’s top prospects, reached Triple-A last year and could debut in 2026.

Part-time center field options on the market could include Lane Thomas, Harrison Bader or Chas McCormick, whom Elias drafted with the Astros back in 2017. Trade possibilities could include Arizona’s Alek Thomas or Colorado’s Brenton Doyle. If Twins ownership winds up pushing the front office to further scale back payroll, then not only would Lopez and Ryan be available — Byron Buxton may even be amenable to waiving his no-trade clause.

As always, this is far from an exhaustive list of targets for the Orioles or possibilities to fill those needs. In all likelihood, the O’s will be looking for multiple relievers, additional bench pieces and ample minor league depth in both the rotation and bullpen (at the very least). There’s been some suggestion that they could pursue a more prominent bat to hit in the middle of the lineup. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman called them a dark horse for Pete Alonso, noting that there’s “some interest” from the O’s. Be that as it may, it’d be a surprise if they did anything more than lurk on the periphery of his market to offer a soft landing if Alonso again struggles to find a long-term deal this winter.

13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Thirteen players have received a qualifying offer this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The list is as follows:

This year’s QO is valued at $22.025MM. All 13 players will have until Nov. 18 to decide whether to accept that one-year offer or decline and become a free agent. They can spend that time gauging the open market to determine interest in their services. If a player accepts the QO, he’ll be treated as a free agent signing and thus will be ineligible to be traded without his consent until June 15 of next year. If he declines, any team that signs him will be subject to draft and/or international bonus forfeitures, depending on its revenue-sharing and luxury tax status.

The bulk of the list was generally expected. Every recipient other than Torres and Imanaga was pegged as likely or a no-doubter to receive the QO on MLBTR’s annual lists of qualifying offer previews for position players and for pitchers. Torres was viewed as something of a long shot, at least on the MLBTR staff. He’s coming off a nice season in Detroit but struggled through a poor finish — perhaps in part due to injury — and wasn’t hit with a QO last offseason when coming off a comparable year at the plate in the Bronx.

Imanaga was listed as a borderline call on our preview as well. The Cubs declined a three-year, $57.75MM option on Imanaga last week. He subsequently declined a $15.25MM player option (which came with an additional player option at $15.25MM) — effectively opting out of a remaining two years and $30.5MM. The Cubs are banking on Imanaga also turning away one year at just over $22MM after turning down that remaining $30.5MM in guaranteed money.

The qualifying offer is determined each year by taking the average of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. We’ve already covered the penalties that each team would face for signing a qualified free agent, as well as the compensation each club would get for losing a qualified free agent to another team.

Among the notable free agents to not receive a qualifying offer are Lucas Giolito, Robert Suarez, Devin Williams and Jorge Polanco. Giolito might have received one had it not been for a late elbow issue that ended his season. Suarez has been excellent and just opted out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his contract, but he’ll be 35 next year. The Padres have been reducing payroll in recent seasons and likely didn’t want to risk Suarez locking in that weighty one-year sum. Williams would have received a QO with a typical season, but he struggled throughout much of the season’s first four months before a dominant finish. Polanco enjoyed a terrific rebound campaign but is 32 years old and was limited to DH work for much of the season due to ongoing injury issues.

The qualifying offer grants each of these free agents the chance at a notable one-year payday, though the majority of them will reject without much thought. Players like Tucker, Bichette, Schwarber, Valdez, Cease, Suarez and Diaz are likely to see comparable or larger (much larger, in Tucker’s case) salaries on multi-year deals in free agency. Even players like Grisham, who probably won’t land a $22MM annual value over multiple years, are still likely to reject. Major league free agents typically — though not always — prioritize long-term earning over short-term, higher-AAV pacts. A three- or four-year deal worth $14-16MM per year, for instance, is typically viewed as preferable to accepting one year at a higher rate.

There’s risk in declining the offer, of course. Teams are more reluctant to sign players who’ll cost them valuable draft picks and/or notable portions of their hard-capped bonus pool for international amateurs. Every offseason, there are a handful of free agents whose markets are weighed down by the burden of draft pick compensation. That typically applies to the “lower end” of the QO recipients. For top stars like Tucker, Bichette, etc. — draft/international forfeitures are simply considered the cost of doing business and don’t tend to have much (if any) impact on the player’s earning power.

Astros Notes: Brown, Espada, Rotation, Caratini, Hader

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The Astros’ streak of consecutive postseason appearances ended in 2025. A poor second half, highlighted by a late sweep at the hands of the eventual division-champion Mariners (in Houston, no less), left the ’Stros on the outside looking in for the first time since 2016. Despite a disappointing finish to the season, it doesn’t seem like major changes are coming to the organization’s leadership. Speaking to reporters at a season-end press conference, general manager Dana Brown suggested both he and manager Joe Espada would return in 2026.

Brown declined to definitively comment on his own status, stating only: “I’m the GM of the Astros, and that’s what I would expect to be tomorrow, the next day and the next day” (audio link to the full 27-minute press conference, courtesy of SportsTalk 790). On Espada, he provided a clearer answer, stating: “Joe is the manager. Joe is under contract [for 2026].”

Any change up top would be at least somewhat surprising. Brown was hired as general manager in Jan. 2023 and has only had three full seasons and two full offseasons at his current post. Espada was elevated to the manager post for the 2024 season, following Dusty Baker’s retirement. While we’ve seen occasional instances of executives and managers having leashes that short, most are provided a lengthier runway after coming aboard with a new organization.

It’s possible there’ll be some changes further down the ladder. Brown vowed Sunday to conduct a “full assessment” and to “think about the entire operation.” Changes in the coaching staff and/or on the player development front haven’t decisively been ruled out. “The season ended 48 hours ago,” said Espada. “We are trying to have conversations and see how we’re going to move forward. That’s where we’re at right now.”

With regard to the roster itself, there’ll be clear turnover. Framber Valdez and Victor Caratini are free agents. Houston has a massive class of 14 arbitration-eligible players. Mauricio Dubon, Bryan Abreu, Ramon Urias, Luis Garcia, Steven Okert and Isaac Paredes are all eligible for the third time this winter (Paredes as a Super Two player who’ll be eligible once more after the ’26 season). Jesus Sanchez, Jeremy Pena, Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers are all eligible for the second time. Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, Bennett Sousa and Hayden Wesneski are eligible for the first time.

Not everyone from that group will return, of course. Garcia suffered another significant elbow injury late in the 2025 season. Urias and Sanchez struggled badly after being acquired at the trade deadline. McCormick tallied just 116 plate appearances and turned in his second consecutive poor year at the plate.

Possible non-tender/trade candidates aside, the most consequential departure will be Valdez — a rock in the Houston rotation since 2020. The Astros won’t outright close the door on a reunion, but Valdez figures to command the type of long-term contract that the Astros have reserved for position players only under Jim Crane’s ownership. Houston hasn’t gone beyond $95MM guaranteed to any pitcher under Crane, and that was to reliever Josh Hader. Lance McCullers Jr.’s ill-fated five-year, $85MM extension is the largest pact Crane has given to a starting pitcher.

“I think it’s going to be headed up with [Hunter] Brown,” the GM said when asked about his rotation. “We’re going to have some conversations, like we’ve had in the past, with Valdez. We’ve got some young guys. We’re going to see what they can do, and we’re going to have some other guys coming back off the IL.”

Both Brown and Espada praised the work Cristian Javier did in his return from Tommy John surgery and spoke of him as an important piece of the 2026 rotation. Righty AJ Blubaugh was also mentioned as a potential factor on next year’s staff. McCullers drew praise for making it back to the field after an arduous rehab process spanning more than two years, but Brown suggested only that McCullers will compete for a job in camp next year. The GM also suggested he’ll be on the hunt for additional starting pitching: “We’re going to probably be in the market to trade for an arm.”

Again, nothing within Brown’s comments expressly rules out the return of Valdez, but specifically calling out the possibility of addressing the rotation via trade is notable. Houston already has a bit more than $159MM on the 2026 books, per RosterResource, and that’s before accounting for any of the arbitration class. Their 2025 payroll finished at just under $225MM.

In addition to the rotation, catching help will be a priority. Brown noted that the Astros “definitely” have interest in bringing Caratini back after a successful run in Houston. The switch-hitting 32-year-old signed a two-year, $12MM deal prior to the 2024 season and wound up appearing in 201 games over his two seasons, slashing .263/.329/.406 in 660 turns at the plate.

“If you don’t bring him back, you definitely need a backup catcher,” said Brown. ” He’s been one of the best backup catchers in the league. … He’s going to be a free agent, so if he decides to go somewhere else, we have to be in the market for a backup — but we definitely have interest in talking to him.”

It’s a thin class of catchers in free agency this winter, with Caratini, 35-year-old J.T. Realmuto and Danny Jansen standing as the most notable names on the free agent market. The Astros don’t need a starter behind the plate. Yainer Diaz, 27, was terrific in 2023-24, hitting .293/.318/.478 with 39 homers in 996 plate appearances. He slipped in ’25, batting “only” .256/.284/.417 with 20 homers, but that’s plenty productive for a catcher. He figures to see a significant portion of the workload behind the plate again in 2026, regardless of who stands as the other half of the catching tandem.

Given the thin supply of backstops and Caratini’s success with the Astros, it’s possible catching-needy clubs could offer Caratini more playing time than Houston. That’d leave Brown and his staff searching for help behind the plate, as he alluded to; Cesar Salazar, who’ll turn 30 next March, is the only other catcher on Houston’s 40-man roster and turned in a tepid .213/.353/.353 batting line in Triple-A this season.

One other notable storyline for Astros fans to track this winter will be the progress of Hader, whose season ended in mid-August due to a capsule injury in his shoulder. Brown revealed that the team has “consistently” had imaging performed on Hader’s shoulder and that the closer is feeling better and appears to be “moving in the right direction.” Hader, however, has yet to resume throwing, and the Astros won’t have a clear picture on his timetable for a return until he takes that step and they can gauge how his shoulder responds. It’s not yet clear when Hader might pick up a ball.

What Kind Of Contract Can Framber Valdez Command?

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We're a little over two months from the opening of free agency. Framber Valdez has probably established himself as the #1 pitcher. That's in part due to Dylan Cease's inconsistency and Michael King missing almost three months to a nerve-related shoulder injury. It's also a testimony to Valdez's consistency and incredible run of durability. It's not common for the top pitcher in a free agent year to be one entering his age-32 season. That should be the case this winter.

How does Valdez stack up against the top starting pitchers in previous free agent classes? MLBTR's Contract Tracker, available to Front Office subscribers, allows for direct comparisons. That makes it possible to project what kind of deal his camp should seek as he approaches the biggest payday of his career.

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MLBTR Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss MLBTR’s first edition of the 2025-26 Free Agent Power Rankings, including these focal points…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images

No Extension Talks Between Framber Valdez, Astros

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Framber Valdez and the Astros avoided arbitration by agreeing to an $18MM salary for the 2025 season, though these appear to have been the only contract talks between the two sides this winter.  Valdez said at the start of camp that the club hadn’t yet discussed a long-term deal with his reps at Octagon, and the same has remained true throughout Spring Training, as the left-hander told Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle and other reporters yesterday.

Since Valdez is set for free agency after this season, he answered “Yes, I think so” when asked if he would indeed be testing the market.  There is nothing stopping Valdez and the Astros from negotiating during the season, though most players prefer to end contract talks by Opening Day in order to avoid distractions once play officially gets underway.  Things could be different if the two sides were perhaps restarting talks after some baseline discussions earlier in the offseason, yet Valdez’s comments indicate that the negotiations haven’t even gotten off the ground.

Valdez became a full-time member of Houston’s rotation in 2020, and the southpaw has since become a key part of the team’s success.  He has a 3.12 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate, and a whopping 62.2% grounder rate over 781 innings over the 2020-24 seasons.  That grounder rate is the best of any qualified pitcher in baseball over the last five seasons, and Valdez’s 781 innings are the seventh-most of any pitcher.  A broken finger cost Valdez about two months of the 2021 campaign and he had a minimal IL stint last season due to elbow soreness, but he has otherwise been the picture of health.

The big regular-season workload has been augmented by 85 innings of postseason ball, with Valdez posting a 4.34 ERA over five of Houston’s playoff runs.  While his production has been a little more inconsistent, his best work came in the Astros’ 2022 World Series championship year, when Valdez delivered a 2.07 ERA over 25 innings to help Houston capture a ring.

Assuming Valdez delivers his usual numbers in 2025, he’ll be in line for a significant contract next winter as a front-of-the-rotation arm that offers both durability and experience on the biggest stage in the game.  That said, the left-hander also turns 32 in November, and there are a couple of other red flags that might indicate why the Astros seem reluctant to explore an extension.

Valdez has gotten away with allowing a lot of hard contact, though his .282 BABIP from 2020-24 indicates only a bit of batted-ball luck.  He doesn’t offer a lot of fastball velocity, instead primarily relying on a mix of his very effective slider and curveball to fool batters.  The strikeout and walk rates are both generally above average but neither stand out, putting more pressure on Valdez’s grounder-heavy approach to keep being effective.

Astros GM Dana Brown said in December that the team would listen to what other teams had to say in trade offers for Valdez, though Brown reiterated Valdez’s importance to the rotation and hinted that he’d just be listening to offers out of due diligence more than any real desire to move the left-hander.  As it turned out, the Astros dealt another pending free agent in Kyle Tucker, freeing up some payroll space while creating a hole in the outfield.  It could be that Houston simply got a better offer for Tucker from the Cubs than they got from any other team that called about Valdez, or that the Astros felt it was more important to keep the rotation stable after a lot of injuries hit the pitching staff in 2024.

Houston has been relatively conservative in giving out long-term extensions during its run of success over the last decade.  Two of the more prominent extensions went to pitchers — Cristian Javier’s five-year, $64MM deal just prior to the 2023 season, and Lance McCullers Jr.’s five-year, $85MM deal signed prior to Opening Day 2021.  Neither of these contracts have panned out to date, as McCullers hasn’t pitched in over two seasons due to a variety of injuries, and Javier underwent a Tommy John surgery last June.

As stable and healthy has Valdez has been, those two deals are surely on the minds of Houston’s front office, especially since Valdez will be looking for a much higher salary.  Barring an unexpected change of heart between the two sides, it certainly looks like Valdez will be the latest prominent Astros star to depart in free agency, while the Astros will at least recoup some draft compensation back via the qualifying offer.

Astros Notes: Altuve, Framber, Roster Moves

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The door for an Alex Bregman reunion in Houston closed this week when the former No. 2 overall pick agreed to an opt-out laden three-year deal in Boston. However, the notion of Jose Altuve playing some left field — a concept first floated when the Astros reengaged with Bregman late in the offseason — remains in play even with Bregman headed to the Red Sox. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that even without Bregman, there are plans for Altuve to get some work in left field in at least a part-time capacity.

At this point, it’s not exactly a surprising development. Even as the Astros signaled that a reunion with Bregman was a longshot last week, both general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada spoke on record with the team’s beat about the possibility of Altuve getting some work in left field this year. Espada said on Feb. 4 that Altuve had been working out in the outfield for several weeks, and that while he’s still taking his usual reps at second base, the left field experiment is something the team is indeed considering. Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle and Chandler Rome of The Athletic both touched on the possibility during spring previews for the team earlier this week.

The reasoning behind the concept is fairly straightforward. After years of rating as a high quality defender at second base, including a Gold Glove win in 2015, Altuve has seen his defensive grades plummet in recent seasons. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him at -13 or worse in each of the past three seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average isn’t nearly so bearish on that three-year period but does agree that Altuve has been a negative since 2023, including a grisly -8 mark in 2024.

Altuve’s decline with the glove is particularly problematic when the Astros send Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown to the mound. Valdez’s 60.6% ground-ball rate was the highest in MLB among all qualified starters. Brown isn’t quite so pronounced, but once he incorporated a sinker into his repertoire in mid-May, he posted a 50% grounder rate the rest of the way. Speculatively speaking, if the Astros want to get Altuve some occasional work in the outfield, doing so on days when Brown and especially Valdez take the bump would be prudent. That’s made all the more true by the presence of Mauricio Dubon on the bench. The Astros’ utilityman is a quality defender at multiple spots, but none more so than second base; in 1154 innings there, he’s been credited with 12 DRS and 8 OAA.

Espada said last week that the Astros are aiming to significantly reduce Yordan Alvarez’s time in the outfield after he played 53 games in left last season. Moving Altuve there on a part-time basis could be one way to achieve that goal. If Altuve looks comfortable enough there, it’ll presumably remain an option beyond the current season. He’s entering the first season of a five-year, $125MM extension inked just over one year ago. He’ll earn $30MM each year from 2025-27 before taking home $10MM in both 2028 and 2029. (The contract also contained a $15MM signing bonus.)

That’s one of just two extensions the Astros have worked out since Dana Brown was named the team’s general manager two years ago. Brown has spoken frequently about his desire to get long-term deals with core players hammered out, but Altuve and Cristian Javier are the only two thus far to put pen to paper.

Time will tell whether this spring might bring some additional long-term arrangements, but for the second straight season the ’Stros find themselves with a key player on the cusp of reaching the market. Valdez, set to earn $18MM in 2025, will be a free agent at season’s end. To this point, the left-hander says the team has not yet approached him about signing a long-term deal (link via Kawahara). The 31-year-old southpaw said he’s open to discussing a long-term deal to keep him in Houston but is also ready to take on free agency if the Astros don’t make an overture or if the two sides can’t come to a deal.

Valdez will hit free agency ahead of his age-32 season, which is a year or two later than most top starters. That might cap his earning power to an extent. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Zack Greinke is the only free agent pitcher in the past decade to land a deal of six or more years beginning in his age-32 season. Blake Snell and Jacob deGrom are the only others to secure guarantees of at least five years. A big enough season could put Valdez in line for five years, but even if he’s capped at four, he’d still have a real chance at a $100MM+ contract; there have been ten pitchers in that same time/age bracket who’ve commanded annual salaries of $25MM or more.

Over the past four seasons, Valdez has emerged as a bona fide top-end starter. He’s pitched 710 1/3 innings in that time, logging a combined 3.08 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and enormous 62.4% ground-ball rate. Since 2022, Valdez ranks fifth in the majors in innings pitched despite having fewer starts made than any other pitcher in the top 10. That’s a testament to his ability to work deep into games. He’s averaged better than 6 1/3 innings per appearance in those three years — a rare feat in today’s era of avoiding three trips through the order and prioritizing impactful bullpen arms.

At this point, an extension (or multiple extensions) might be all that’s left in terms of major additions. Asked this week about the potential for further additions to the roster, Brown noted that he’s always looking for more pitching but downplayed the possibility of anything coming together (link via Kawahara). “…Right now, our roster’s pretty good,” Brown added. “I think we’re pretty much in shape to be in position to win this division.”

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