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Orioles Remain Involved On Top Free Agent Starters After Alonso Deal

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After making a massive splash on offense, the Orioles figure to turn their attention to the rotation. That could also come via the open market, as the MLB Network’s Jon Morosi relays that Baltimore remains in the mix for the top free agent starters. Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner similarly suggests that the O’s have ongoing interest in Ranger Suárez.

Baltimore committed $31MM annually on a surprising five-year deal to add Pete Alonso. It’s easily the biggest free agent move of Mike Elias’ tenure leading baseball operations. That also means the long-term books are still fairly open. Alonso joins Ryan Helsley, Tyler O’Neill and Samuel Basallo as the only players signed beyond next season. Helsley and O’Neill come off the books after 2027, while Basallo won’t make more than $4MM in a season until 2030.

A significant arbitration class clutters the short-term picture a little more. RosterResource projects their 2026 payroll obligations around $148MM. (That’s using a $31MM estimated salary for Alonso, but the annual breakdown on his deal hasn’t been reported.) Baltimore had a little more than $159MM committed to their Opening Day payroll in 2025. They’d need to push that higher to make a second notable free agent move, but that appears to be in play headed into the second full season of David Rubenstein’s ownership tenure.

Adding a front-line starter alongside Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish is the clear objective now for Elias and company. Alongside Suárez, they’ve been tied to Framber Valdez, Michael King and Tatsuya Imai. Elias has already said he’s open to sacrificing a draft pick to sign a player who rejected a qualifying offer. That applies to Valdez, Suárez and King. They did not give up any draft capital to sign Alonso, who was ineligible for a QO, but their unsuccessful $150MM bid for Kyle Schwarber demonstrates that willingness to add a qualified free agent.

Baltimore is juggling the free agent pursuits against possibilities on the trade front. (Adding another right-handed power bat only further clouds the path to playing time for former top corner infield prospect Coby Mayo, for instance.) The Athletic reported last night that they’ve been among the most aggressive teams in talks with the Marlins regarding Edward Cabrera. Morosi also mentioned Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore as a potential trade target for the O’s. The two parties have had multiple conversations surrounding Gore, who’s controlled for two more seasons via arbitration.

Gore is a natural target for any team seeking rotation help. The former No. 3 overall pick was once the top pitching prospect in the sport, and while he’s yet to develop into an established ace, he’s shown glimpses of that ability. Gore has made at least 27 starts in three straight seasons for Washington. His 4.15 earned run average in that time is solid but not particularly eye-catching. Metrics like SIERA (3.99) and FIP (4.01) are only a bit more bullish.

That said, Gore spent much of the season’s first half pitching like a Cy Young contender. He carried a sparkling 3.02 ERA into the All-Star break — a mark supported by a dominant 30.5% strikeout rate and a strong 7.7% walk rate. That strikeout rate trailed only Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown. His 14.2% swinging-strike rate checked in behind only Skubal, Wheeler and Dylan Cease. Gore looked to be in the midst of a full-fledged breakout, finally realizing his ceiling as a No. 1 or 2 starter.

The next three starts were a nightmare. Gore was rocked for 23 runs in just 15 1/3 innings, ballooning his ERA into the mid-4.00s. He rebounded over his final seven starts but also spent a couple weeks on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation. The 26-year-old lefty (27 in February) finished out what had looked like such a promising campaign with a respectable but unremarkable 4.17 ERA in 159 2/3 innings.

Gore is something of an unfinished product, though other more analytically inclined clubs might hope they can coax another level of performance out of him. The Nationals remade their front office this offseason but had generally been viewed as behind the curve when it comes to incorporating data into their pitching development. On a smaller scale, we saw a big jump in Kyle Finnegan’s performance with Detroit. An acquiring team would surely be hoping for similar improvements from Gore. The pieces are certainly in place. Gore’s 95.5 mph average four-seamer is strong, particularly for a lefty, and his 13.3% swinging-strike rate is already excellent as well.

While Alonso isn’t limiting the free agent pitching possibilities, it probably takes them out of the running for another massive move on a bat. Morosi reported yesterday that the O’s had been in contact with Kyle Tucker’s camp. Baltimore always seemed like a longer shot on Tucker, and it’d be shocking if they add him on top of the Alonso agreement. The O’s already brought in Taylor Ward via trade and have a crowded corner outfield mix with O’Neill, Colton Cowser and Dylan Beavers. They’re likely to give some DH at-bats to whomever of Basallo and Adley Rutschman isn’t behind the plate and need to sort out whether there’s room on the roster at all for Mayo and Ryan Mountcastle.

Mets “Reluctant” To Make Long-Term Offers For Free Agent Starters

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While it’s no secret that addressing the top of the rotation is a priority for the Mets this winter, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that the Mets are hesitant to make long-term offers to the top starters available in free agency this winter. Sammon adds that each of Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, and Ranger Suarez would “hold some appeal” to the Mets on shorter-term deals.

At this point, it seems unlikely any of those pitchers will need to settle for something short-term. MLBTR predicted both Valdez and Imai to land six-year deals worth $150MM in free agency this winter as the offseason’s #6 and #7 free agents. Meanwhile, Suarez clocked in at #10 on MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list and was predicted for a five-year deal worth $115MM. Right-hander Dylan Cease jumped the market to sign a seven-year deal with the Blue Jays late last month. His $210MM guarantee exceeds the seven-year, $189MM guarantee MLBTR predicted for the right-hander, although that deal does include deferred money that lowers the net present value of the deal a bit.

Even with that deferred money, however, Cease’s seven-year pact is hardly a troublesome omen for Valdez, Imai, and Suarez. Imai in particular won’t celebrate his 28th birthday until May and that youth figures to help him land a long-term deal this winter. Of course, free agency can be unpredictable. While the trend of short-term deals with opt outs have been more common for position players (Carlos Correa, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Pete Alonso) than pitchers in recent years, a few hurlers have found an unexpectedly soft market as well. Jack Flaherty was widely expected to land a long-term deal in free agency last offseason but ended up signing for just two years with the Tigers. Two offseasons ago, Blake Snell was viewed as a shoo-in for a six-year deal but wound up signing with the Giants on a short-term, opt-out laden pact.

Perhaps the Mets are willing to be patient on the free agent market to see if another high-end starter falls through the cracks like Snell did during the 2023-24 offseason. Another option would be to move a tier down in free agency to sign a short-term deal with a player who has still shown front-of-the-rotation upside. Michael King is viewed as being a potential top-of-the-rotation arm whose years will be limited coming off an injury-marred season, and the Mets are among the teams with known interest. Sammon floats Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly as other possibilities, either of whom would be plausible fits. Kelly turned in a 3.52 ERA in 32 starts last year, but will be forced to stay short-term by the fact that he’ll play next season at the age of 37. Gallen has shown ace-level upside in the past and is only 30, but enters free agency coming off the worst season of his career.

Another option for the Mets would be to keep tabs on the trade market. Sammon notes that Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller is someone that New York would “likely” view as an upgrade to their internal rotation options, to say nothing of more established front-end options like Freddy Peralta or higher upside players like MacKenzie Gore and Edward Cabrera. Keller will make $54.5MM over the next three seasons, while Gore and Cabrera are controlled via arbitration through 2027 and ’28 respectively. Peralta (as well as ace lefty Tarik Skubal, should the Tigers make him available) would only be controlled for one season before they would hit free agency and surely seek the sort of long-term deals the Mets are looking to avoid.

Speculatively speaking, that could make a controllable starter like Keller, Gore, or Cabrera and ideal fit for the Mets. The club already appears motivated to make moves on the trade market this winter, with Kodai Senga and Jeff McNeil among the club’s rumored trade candidates. In addition to those veteran names, the Mets have a number of young infielders (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuna, and Ronny Mauricio) who could be made available in the right deal. For a team like the Pirates or Marlins looking to add help on offense, any of those names would surely be attractive pieces to bring into the fold.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that a significant number of starting pitchers move on the trade market this winter. If a run on starting pitching begins in free agency while the Mets are focused on the trade market, the club could find that the patient approach it took backfired and left them without a true front-end talent to pursue—or that they had to pay a premium to land one of the last arms remaining on the market. It’s a difficult needle the Mets will have to thread if they want to land a front-end arm on a shorter-term arrangement, and fans are surely hoping they’ll do a better job of doing so than they did with last winter’s disappointing deals for Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, and Frankie Montas. Of that trio, only Holmes managed to stick in the rotation by the end of the year.

Mets, Giants Met With Framber Valdez In November

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The Orioles are the only team publicly linked to Framber Valdez’s market this winter, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that Valdez and his reps indeed met with officials from the O’s at the GM Meetings in November.  Around that same time, however, the Giants and Mets also spoke with Valdez’s camp, which fits given how both teams are known to be looking for starting pitching help.

Valdez ranked sixth on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, with a predicted contract of five years and $150MM.  This projection makes San Francisco’s interest all the more intriguing, since both GM Zack Minasian and team chairman Greg Johnson have each stated since the GM Meetings that the Giants prefer to add pitchers on shorter-term contracts.  Valdez is entering his age-32 season, which may raise the risk level even further about making a big commitment to the left-hander now that he is past what are generally considered a player’s prime years.

The Giants’ stance doesn’t technically preclude a pursuit of Valdez, if the team perhaps offered the southpaw a short-term contract with a higher average annual value.  That said, Valdez’s age might make such a consideration unlikely on his end, as surely he wants to strike as lengthy and lucrative a deal as possible now that he has reached the open market.  Despite his age, Valdez is a workhorse who has tossed 767 2/3 innings over the last four seasons, and he has 85 more innings under his belt on his career postseason resume.

Valdez is a grounder specialist who doesn’t miss many bats, but that skillset would work just fine with Matt Chapman and Willy Adames backing him up in the San Francisco infield.  More pressingly, Valdez’s ability to eat up innings with quality work is a nice fit in a Giants rotation that has plenty of question marks beyond ace Logan Webb.

Robbie Ray and Landen Roupp project as the next two starters, and Ray is a free agent next winter while Roupp had a solid 2025 season but is an overall unproven commodity over the long term.  A collection of other younger and unproven arms (Hayden Birdsong, Trevor McDonald, Blade Tidwell, Carson Whisenhunt, Kai-Wei Teng, Keaton Winn) are currently in the mix for the fourth and fifth spots.  Signing Valdez would do a ton to solidify this group, as the Giants would have a very strong top three of Webb-Ray-Valdez that could easily line up as a playoff rotation, and Valdez would be the replacement for Ray if the former Cy Young Award winner went elsewhere after the 2026 campaign.

That said, it could all be a moot point if the Giants aren’t willing to splurge on a long-term pitching contract.  It could be that the Giants checked in with Valdez and other pitchers to get an early gauge on their expectations, and without much hope of finding a bargain, the team is now being open about its preference to stick with smaller (and presumably less-expensive) contracts.

Mets president of baseball David Stearns shares a similar view on starting pitching contracts, yet New York’s decision to stick to such deals with the likes of Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, and Clay Holmes last winter backfired badly on the team.  These three pitchers and the other members of the rotation simply seemed to break down last season, leading to the team’s collapse in the second half as an influx of pitching prospects couldn’t stop the downward spiral.

Between the veterans (Manaea, Holmes, Kodai Senga, David Peterson) and the youngsters (Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat, Christian Scott), the Mets have plenty of pitchers on hand, yet adding a durable frontline starter like Valdez would be a huge boost to this group.  In the wake of last year’s collapse, Stearns expressed regret over not doing more to reinforce the pitching staff, and owner Steve Cohen surely couldn’t have been pleased with how things played out.

The Amazins’ interest in upgrading their rotation has been evident by the many big names on their radar this winter.  Valdez joins the likes of Tatsuya Imai, Michael King, Ranger Suarez, Joe Ryan, and Tarik Skubal as free agents and trade candidates who have been liked to the Mets in some fashion.  It might be safe to guess at this point that the Mets will head into Opening Day with at least one big new arm at the front of their rotation, and it’s just a matter of whether the club will obtain their rotation help via trades or pricey signings.

The Best Fits For Framber Valdez

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Each offseason at MLBTR, we take a look at the potential markets for some of the top names in free agency. We've already covered the two best free agent hitters, Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette. With Dylan Cease off the board on what is likely to be the biggest pitching contract of the winter, we'll look at the market for the best left-hander: Framber Valdez.

Valdez has been one of the most durable and consistent pitchers in the sport over the past six seasons. This year's 3.66 earned run average was his highest since he established himself as a starter with the Astros in 2020. Valdez has surpassed 175 innings in four straight seasons. He sits in the 95-96 MPH range and is capable of both missing bats and keeping the ball on the ground. Valdez doesn't have the strikeout ceiling that Cease brings to the table, but he has fanned an above-average 23-25% of opponents in four straight years. His true standout trait is a ground-ball rate that annually ranks among the sport's highest, including a huge 58.6% mark this past season.

The plus stuff from the left side and combination of whiffs and grounders makes Valdez fairly similar to Max Fried. He's not going to match the eight-year, $218MM contract that Fried commanded when he was headed into his age-31 season. Valdez, who turned 32 last month, is probably looking at a five- or six-year deal at a premium annual rate. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $150MM contract that made him our #6 free agent. He's tied with Tatsuya Imai for the second-largest predicted contracts among pitchers (behind Cease, whom we had at $189MM over seven years).

Valdez rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros, who are not expected to make much of an effort to bring him back. They'll receive a compensatory pick -- specifics of which won't be determined until MLB finalizes the 2025 luxury tax calculations -- while the signing team will forfeit draft and/or international bonus pool space. That shouldn't be much of a deterrent for arguably the best immediate rotation upgrade available.

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Orioles Showing Interest In Kyle Schwarber, Tatsuya Imai, Framber Valdez

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Earlier this month, Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias said his team is open to signing free agents who have rejected a qualifying offer, and would therefore cost the O’s their third-highest selection in the 2026 draft in addition to whatever the free agent would command in salary.  Of the nine players who rejected the QO, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Baltimore has shown some interest in Framber Valdez, Kyle Schwarber, and Dylan Cease (before Cease signed with the Blue Jays yesterday).  In addition to qualified free agents, the Orioles have “checked in on” Tatsuya Imai, as part of the team’s explorations of the upper tiers of the pitching market.

Heyman also linked Baltimore to Pete Alonso a couple of weeks ago, but now notes that the chances of a signing may have dimmed since the Orioles retained Ryan Mountcastle past the non-tender deadline.  This doesn’t mean that Mountcastle couldn’t still be traded or cut loose entirely if a premium bat became a realistic option for Baltimore, though Elias said earlier this week that the team thinks Mountcastle can rebound after a hamstring strain hampered his production in 2025.

Signing Alonso or Schwarber would further deepen what is already perhaps an overcrowded mix of position players in Baltimore.  Schwarber can play a corner outfield spot on an occasional basis but is largely a DH-only player at this stage of his career, further reducing the Orioles’ flexibility in trying to find at-bats for the rest of its current players.  A trade or two might ease up this logjam, of course, and the Orioles could then acquire pitching via the trade market rather than free agency.

Even if a Schwarber or an Alonso creates some questions about lineup construction, the Orioles would happily accept that as a proverbial “good problem to have” if it means adding an elite power bat.  Schwarber and Alonso are also both known to be clubhouse leaders, and adding a veteran mentor to a young O’s team might carry benefits beyond just what either player can provide at the plate.

There is a widespread belief that the Phillies will pay top dollar to re-sign Schwarber, but naturally that hasn’t stopped other teams from looking into his market.  The Orioles join the Red Sox and Pirates as teams known to have shown interest in Schwarber’s services, and clubs like the Reds and Yankees have been more speculatively linked.  Alonso’s market hasn’t been as robust in terms of public interest, though the Mets remain in the mix for another reunion with their longtime slugger.

The Orioles have already added one prominent bat this offseason by acquiring Taylor Ward from the Angels for Grayson Rodriguez, in a move that surprised some pundits since it further reduced the Orioles’ list of rotation options.  This could indicate that if the O’s do break the bank on a big-ticket signing, it will be for a starting pitcher to help stabilize the rotation.  Cease’s rather quick departure from the market (and to an AL East rival) only puts more pressure on the Orioles to find another frontline arm.

Valdez or Imai would certainly fit the bill, albeit in two different fashions.  Valdez is a proven commodity at the MLB level, and is particularly a known quantity to Elias since Valdez joined the Astros organization as an international signing and then broke into the majors when Elias was still working in Houston’s front office.  Imai is over four and a half years younger than Valdez and perhaps has more pure upside based on his results in Japan, but it remains to be seen if Imai can translate that success over to the majors.  The O’s also don’t have a long track record in signing Japanese talent, though the club did add Tomoyuki Sugano last winter.

Tyler O’Neill’s three-year, $49.5MM contract remains the only multi-year free agent deal the Orioles have signed during Elias’ seven years running the front office, though in fairness, much of Elias’ tenure was spent either rebuilding or working under some ownership turmoil.  David Rubenstein’s purchase of the franchise in early 2024 didn’t immediately lead to a huge payroll boost, though the club did ink star prospect Samuel Basallo to an eight-year, $67MM extension this past summer.  Basallo and O’Neill represent the only contracts on Baltimore’s books beyond 2026, and while the Orioles certainly have interest in locking up other young stars to extensions, there is plenty of future financial room for the O’s to make a splashy signing (or two) this winter.

Nine Players Reject Qualifying Offer

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The deadline to accept the qualifying offer has passed. Four players — Trent Grisham, Gleyber Torres, Brandon Woodruff, and Shota Imanaga — chose to accept the one-year, $22.025MM deal and remain with their current clubs. The remaining nine players rejected the deal. They are: Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker, Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber, Blue Jays infielder Bo Bichette, Astros lefty Framber Valdez, Padres righty Dylan Cease, Phillies lefty Ranger Suarez, Mets closer Edwin Diaz, Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen, and Padres righty Michael King. All nine are now free agents.

There’s not much surprise in any of the nine players who rejected. Tucker, Schwarber, Bichette, Valdez, Cease, Suarez and Diaz were all locks. Gallen may have given some brief thought to accepting after a rough showing in 2025, but he finished strong and has a track record as a high-end starter who’s garnered multiple top-five finishes in NL Cy Young balloting. King was hobbled by nerve and knee injuries in an odd season but was dominant in 2023-24 and through the first two months of the current season. He was healthy late in the year and fanned three in his lone inning of postseason work. He’ll test the waters in search of a multi-year deal as well.

Now that this nonet has rejected qualifying offers, they’ll all be subject to draft compensation. Interested teams will need to surrender a draft pick (or multiple picks) and, in some cases, space from their bonus pool for international amateurs in order to sign any of this group. The extent of that draft compensation depends on the revenue-sharing and luxury tax status of the new team. MLBTR broke down which pick(s) each club would forfeit by signing a “qualified” free agent last month.

Similarly, the compensation for each player’s former club is dependent on revenue-sharing and luxury tax status — as well as the size of the contract signed by the player in question. MLBTR also ran through the compensation each team would receive if their qualified free agents turned down the offer and signed elsewhere.

Orioles Pursuing Prominent Pitching Upgrades, Open To Signing Qualifying Offer Recipients

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On the heels of a disappointing 2025 season, Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias is striking a much more aggressive tenor in his early media appearances this offseason than last. Baltimore’s baseball ops leader candidly acknowledged this week that he’s hopeful of adding a starter who can give his team “innings and front-half-of-the-rotation stuff” as well as a reliever “who has closer experience” (links via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner and Jake Rill of MLB.com. Just as notably, Elias voiced that he is “fully prepared” to forfeit draft pick(s) to sign free agents who have rejected a qualifying offer.

It’s a notable departure from Baltimore’s 2024-25 offseason. The O’s made a multi-year offer to Corbin Burnes that wasn’t accepted. It’s not clear how many — if any — other free agents received multi-year offers from the Orioles.

Ultimately, Elias & Co. handed out almost exclusively one-year deals, signing Charlie Morton ($15MM), Tomoyuki Sugano ($13MM), Andrew Kittredge ($10MM), Gary Sanchez ($8.5MM), Ramon Laureano ($4MM) and Dylan Carlson ($975K) for the 2025 season. Outfielder Tyler O’Neill was the lone recipient of a multi-year guarantee, landing three years and $49.5MM. Even that deal came with an opt-out opportunity following the 2025 season.

O’Neill was not only the lone multi-year free agent signing for the Orioles last winter — he’s the only free agent Elias has signed to a multi-year deal in seven offseasons leading Baltimore’s baseball operations. For much of that time, the team has been rebuilding, which helps to explain the lack of a multi-year investment. Elias told Darragh McDonald in a recent guest appearance on the MLBTR Podcast that there’s no organizational aversion to multi-year free agent deals, they simply haven’t lined up on one during his tenure.

At least based on his early comments, Elias seems more resolute in his efforts to pursue higher-end talent. The O’s have a pair of notable arms in Kyle Bradish and the resurgent Trevor Rogers atop their rotation, but Rogers is a free agent next winter and Bradish only returned from Tommy John surgery this past summer. Voicing a preference to sign someone who can pitch in the “front half” of the rotation and expressing a willingness to punt draft picks both signal a more aggressive playbook this winter.

On the free agent side of things, the market has several interesting names. Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Michael King, Brandon Woodruff and Zac Gallen all received qualifying offers. None are expected to accept. NPB star Tatsuya Imai will also be posted for MLB clubs, adding a 28-year-old wild card to the mix. Notably, Elias was the Astros’ scouting director when the team signed Valdez as an amateur in 2016. The two overlapped in Houston’s organization for a couple years.

On the trade side of the coin, there are a number of high-profile arms likely to be available. Much as it pains fans of pitching-hungry clubs, there’s minimal chance the Tigers will trade Tarik Skubal. The Brewers seem inclined to hang onto Freddy Peralta. Twins president Derek Falvey has said he plans to add to the roster until he’s told otherwise, which casts some doubt on the immediate availability of Joe Ryan and/or Pablo Lopez. But the market still includes names like MacKenzie Gore, Sonny Gray, Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera and Mitch Keller, among others.

Broadly speaking, whether it’s via free agency or trade, there’s benefit in the Orioles adding a starter who’s controlled/signed beyond 2026. Rogers, as mentioned, is a free agent next winter. Righties Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells will be free agents after the 2027 season. There’s little doubting the pure talent of righty Grayson Rodriguez, but by the time Opening Day 2026 rolls around, he’ll be 20 months removed from pitching in a big league game. There’s very little long-term stability in the group.

As for the relief market, the number of qualified free agents is far lower. Devin Williams didn’t receive a QO from the Yankees. Robert Suarez didn’t get one from the Padres. Edwin Diaz was the only reliever tagged with a QO. That said, there are a number of a high-profile names from which to choose. Diaz, Suarez, Williams, Ryan Helsley, Raisel Iglesias, Kyle Finnegan and Pete Fairbanks all have extensive closing experience in the majors. If the preference is a one-year deal, 38-year-old Kenley Jansen keeps getting the job done even as he inches closer to his 40th birthday.

Whoever ends up emerging as the priority, payroll shouldn’t be an issue. The only players guaranteed anything beyond the 2026 season are O’Neill and catcher Samuel Basallo, who inked a long-term extension just days after making his MLB debut. They’re owed a combined $17.5MM in 2027. After ’27, Basallo’s eight-year, $67MM deal is the only contract on the books. It’d be a surprise to see the Orioles sign a high-end starter and a prominent reliever to multi-year deals, but only because they haven’t operated that way in quite some time. Payroll-wise, there’s no reason they couldn’t bring in a pair of prominent free agents.

Elias also suggested that the O’s will be on the lookout for an additional option in center field. While he praised Colton Cowser’s long-term outlook and expressed confidence that the 25-year-old (26 next March) can handle the position defensively, Baltimore’s president also noted that “you can’t get through the year with one center fielder.”

A reunion with Cedric Mullins seems unlikely, as he’ll presumably want everyday at-bats (or close to it) wherever he goes, while the O’s have O’Neill, Cowser and Dylan Beavers already in the mix for playing time, to say nothing of recently signed Leody Taveras and former top prospect Heston Kjerstad. Enrique Bradfield Jr., the No. 17 overall pick in 2023 and one of the system’s top prospects, reached Triple-A last year and could debut in 2026.

Part-time center field options on the market could include Lane Thomas, Harrison Bader or Chas McCormick, whom Elias drafted with the Astros back in 2017. Trade possibilities could include Arizona’s Alek Thomas or Colorado’s Brenton Doyle. If Twins ownership winds up pushing the front office to further scale back payroll, then not only would Lopez and Ryan be available — Byron Buxton may even be amenable to waiving his no-trade clause.

As always, this is far from an exhaustive list of targets for the Orioles or possibilities to fill those needs. In all likelihood, the O’s will be looking for multiple relievers, additional bench pieces and ample minor league depth in both the rotation and bullpen (at the very least). There’s been some suggestion that they could pursue a more prominent bat to hit in the middle of the lineup. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman called them a dark horse for Pete Alonso, noting that there’s “some interest” from the O’s. Be that as it may, it’d be a surprise if they did anything more than lurk on the periphery of his market to offer a soft landing if Alonso again struggles to find a long-term deal this winter.

13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Thirteen players have received a qualifying offer this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The list is as follows:

This year’s QO is valued at $22.025MM. All 13 players will have until Nov. 18 to decide whether to accept that one-year offer or decline and become a free agent. They can spend that time gauging the open market to determine interest in their services. If a player accepts the QO, he’ll be treated as a free agent signing and thus will be ineligible to be traded without his consent until June 15 of next year. If he declines, any team that signs him will be subject to draft and/or international bonus forfeitures, depending on its revenue-sharing and luxury tax status.

The bulk of the list was generally expected. Every recipient other than Torres and Imanaga was pegged as likely or a no-doubter to receive the QO on MLBTR’s annual lists of qualifying offer previews for position players and for pitchers. Torres was viewed as something of a long shot, at least on the MLBTR staff. He’s coming off a nice season in Detroit but struggled through a poor finish — perhaps in part due to injury — and wasn’t hit with a QO last offseason when coming off a comparable year at the plate in the Bronx.

Imanaga was listed as a borderline call on our preview as well. The Cubs declined a three-year, $57.75MM option on Imanaga last week. He subsequently declined a $15.25MM player option (which came with an additional player option at $15.25MM) — effectively opting out of a remaining two years and $30.5MM. The Cubs are banking on Imanaga also turning away one year at just over $22MM after turning down that remaining $30.5MM in guaranteed money.

The qualifying offer is determined each year by taking the average of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. We’ve already covered the penalties that each team would face for signing a qualified free agent, as well as the compensation each club would get for losing a qualified free agent to another team.

Among the notable free agents to not receive a qualifying offer are Lucas Giolito, Robert Suarez, Devin Williams and Jorge Polanco. Giolito might have received one had it not been for a late elbow issue that ended his season. Suarez has been excellent and just opted out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his contract, but he’ll be 35 next year. The Padres have been reducing payroll in recent seasons and likely didn’t want to risk Suarez locking in that weighty one-year sum. Williams would have received a QO with a typical season, but he struggled throughout much of the season’s first four months before a dominant finish. Polanco enjoyed a terrific rebound campaign but is 32 years old and was limited to DH work for much of the season due to ongoing injury issues.

The qualifying offer grants each of these free agents the chance at a notable one-year payday, though the majority of them will reject without much thought. Players like Tucker, Bichette, Schwarber, Valdez, Cease, Suarez and Diaz are likely to see comparable or larger (much larger, in Tucker’s case) salaries on multi-year deals in free agency. Even players like Grisham, who probably won’t land a $22MM annual value over multiple years, are still likely to reject. Major league free agents typically — though not always — prioritize long-term earning over short-term, higher-AAV pacts. A three- or four-year deal worth $14-16MM per year, for instance, is typically viewed as preferable to accepting one year at a higher rate.

There’s risk in declining the offer, of course. Teams are more reluctant to sign players who’ll cost them valuable draft picks and/or notable portions of their hard-capped bonus pool for international amateurs. Every offseason, there are a handful of free agents whose markets are weighed down by the burden of draft pick compensation. That typically applies to the “lower end” of the QO recipients. For top stars like Tucker, Bichette, etc. — draft/international forfeitures are simply considered the cost of doing business and don’t tend to have much (if any) impact on the player’s earning power.

Astros Notes: Brown, Espada, Rotation, Caratini, Hader

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The Astros’ streak of consecutive postseason appearances ended in 2025. A poor second half, highlighted by a late sweep at the hands of the eventual division-champion Mariners (in Houston, no less), left the ’Stros on the outside looking in for the first time since 2016. Despite a disappointing finish to the season, it doesn’t seem like major changes are coming to the organization’s leadership. Speaking to reporters at a season-end press conference, general manager Dana Brown suggested both he and manager Joe Espada would return in 2026.

Brown declined to definitively comment on his own status, stating only: “I’m the GM of the Astros, and that’s what I would expect to be tomorrow, the next day and the next day” (audio link to the full 27-minute press conference, courtesy of SportsTalk 790). On Espada, he provided a clearer answer, stating: “Joe is the manager. Joe is under contract [for 2026].”

Any change up top would be at least somewhat surprising. Brown was hired as general manager in Jan. 2023 and has only had three full seasons and two full offseasons at his current post. Espada was elevated to the manager post for the 2024 season, following Dusty Baker’s retirement. While we’ve seen occasional instances of executives and managers having leashes that short, most are provided a lengthier runway after coming aboard with a new organization.

It’s possible there’ll be some changes further down the ladder. Brown vowed Sunday to conduct a “full assessment” and to “think about the entire operation.” Changes in the coaching staff and/or on the player development front haven’t decisively been ruled out. “The season ended 48 hours ago,” said Espada. “We are trying to have conversations and see how we’re going to move forward. That’s where we’re at right now.”

With regard to the roster itself, there’ll be clear turnover. Framber Valdez and Victor Caratini are free agents. Houston has a massive class of 14 arbitration-eligible players. Mauricio Dubon, Bryan Abreu, Ramon Urias, Luis Garcia, Steven Okert and Isaac Paredes are all eligible for the third time this winter (Paredes as a Super Two player who’ll be eligible once more after the ’26 season). Jesus Sanchez, Jeremy Pena, Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers are all eligible for the second time. Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, Bennett Sousa and Hayden Wesneski are eligible for the first time.

Not everyone from that group will return, of course. Garcia suffered another significant elbow injury late in the 2025 season. Urias and Sanchez struggled badly after being acquired at the trade deadline. McCormick tallied just 116 plate appearances and turned in his second consecutive poor year at the plate.

Possible non-tender/trade candidates aside, the most consequential departure will be Valdez — a rock in the Houston rotation since 2020. The Astros won’t outright close the door on a reunion, but Valdez figures to command the type of long-term contract that the Astros have reserved for position players only under Jim Crane’s ownership. Houston hasn’t gone beyond $95MM guaranteed to any pitcher under Crane, and that was to reliever Josh Hader. Lance McCullers Jr.’s ill-fated five-year, $85MM extension is the largest pact Crane has given to a starting pitcher.

“I think it’s going to be headed up with [Hunter] Brown,” the GM said when asked about his rotation. “We’re going to have some conversations, like we’ve had in the past, with Valdez. We’ve got some young guys. We’re going to see what they can do, and we’re going to have some other guys coming back off the IL.”

Both Brown and Espada praised the work Cristian Javier did in his return from Tommy John surgery and spoke of him as an important piece of the 2026 rotation. Righty AJ Blubaugh was also mentioned as a potential factor on next year’s staff. McCullers drew praise for making it back to the field after an arduous rehab process spanning more than two years, but Brown suggested only that McCullers will compete for a job in camp next year. The GM also suggested he’ll be on the hunt for additional starting pitching: “We’re going to probably be in the market to trade for an arm.”

Again, nothing within Brown’s comments expressly rules out the return of Valdez, but specifically calling out the possibility of addressing the rotation via trade is notable. Houston already has a bit more than $159MM on the 2026 books, per RosterResource, and that’s before accounting for any of the arbitration class. Their 2025 payroll finished at just under $225MM.

In addition to the rotation, catching help will be a priority. Brown noted that the Astros “definitely” have interest in bringing Caratini back after a successful run in Houston. The switch-hitting 32-year-old signed a two-year, $12MM deal prior to the 2024 season and wound up appearing in 201 games over his two seasons, slashing .263/.329/.406 in 660 turns at the plate.

“If you don’t bring him back, you definitely need a backup catcher,” said Brown. ” He’s been one of the best backup catchers in the league. … He’s going to be a free agent, so if he decides to go somewhere else, we have to be in the market for a backup — but we definitely have interest in talking to him.”

It’s a thin class of catchers in free agency this winter, with Caratini, 35-year-old J.T. Realmuto and Danny Jansen standing as the most notable names on the free agent market. The Astros don’t need a starter behind the plate. Yainer Diaz, 27, was terrific in 2023-24, hitting .293/.318/.478 with 39 homers in 996 plate appearances. He slipped in ’25, batting “only” .256/.284/.417 with 20 homers, but that’s plenty productive for a catcher. He figures to see a significant portion of the workload behind the plate again in 2026, regardless of who stands as the other half of the catching tandem.

Given the thin supply of backstops and Caratini’s success with the Astros, it’s possible catching-needy clubs could offer Caratini more playing time than Houston. That’d leave Brown and his staff searching for help behind the plate, as he alluded to; Cesar Salazar, who’ll turn 30 next March, is the only other catcher on Houston’s 40-man roster and turned in a tepid .213/.353/.353 batting line in Triple-A this season.

One other notable storyline for Astros fans to track this winter will be the progress of Hader, whose season ended in mid-August due to a capsule injury in his shoulder. Brown revealed that the team has “consistently” had imaging performed on Hader’s shoulder and that the closer is feeling better and appears to be “moving in the right direction.” Hader, however, has yet to resume throwing, and the Astros won’t have a clear picture on his timetable for a return until he takes that step and they can gauge how his shoulder responds. It’s not yet clear when Hader might pick up a ball.

What Kind Of Contract Can Framber Valdez Command?

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We're a little over two months from the opening of free agency. Framber Valdez has probably established himself as the #1 pitcher. That's in part due to Dylan Cease's inconsistency and Michael King missing almost three months to a nerve-related shoulder injury. It's also a testimony to Valdez's consistency and incredible run of durability. It's not common for the top pitcher in a free agent year to be one entering his age-32 season. That should be the case this winter.

How does Valdez stack up against the top starting pitchers in previous free agent classes? MLBTR's Contract Tracker, available to Front Office subscribers, allows for direct comparisons. That makes it possible to project what kind of deal his camp should seek as he approaches the biggest payday of his career.

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