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Framber Valdez

Valdez Notes: Orioles, Twins, Yankees

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Framber Valdez came off the board last night on a three-year, $115MM deal (with deferrals) to pair with Tarik Skubal at the top of Detroit’s rotation. Reporting in the wake of that agreement shed some light on the lefty’s market before he committed to the Tigers.

The Orioles had been frequently connected to Valdez throughout the offseason. They’d certainly benefit from adding a top-of-the-rotation arm alongside Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish. Baltimore president of baseball operations Mike Elias has ties to Valdez from his days in the Houston front office. Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner and Jon Heyman of The New York Post each suggest that the O’s are still in the rotation market and remain engaged on Zac Gallen, who is arguably the best unsigned free agent.

Like Valdez, Gallen rejected a qualifying offer and is tied to draft compensation. Baltimore would forfeit their third-round pick (#82 overall) if they signed him. Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are other possibilities if the O’s balk at Gallen’s asking price. None of those pitchers would require a draft penalty. The O’s have a projected luxury tax number of $189MM, as calculated by RosterResource. That’s about $10MM north of where they ended the ’25 season.

Although Baltimore was an obvious fit for Valdez, there were a couple more surprising entrants into the market as his free agency lingered. The Pirates reportedly made a push this week, while ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that the Twins were also involved. Minnesota also reportedly jumped into the mix on Freddy Peralta before the Brewers traded him to the Mets.

It’s not known if they were ever serious threats to land each pitcher or simply doing their diligence on available impact arms. A Valdez signing would have been a shock. Ownership has reduced spending. The team and president of baseball operations Derek Falvey parted ways just last week in a curiously timed decision. Minnesota scuttled any plans for a rebuild after onboarding a few minority investors to alleviate some of the franchise’s debts. At the same time, they’ve only made modest additions (most notably Victor Caratini, Josh Bell and Taylor Rogers) to a team that lost the second-most games in the American League and decimated the bullpen with a massive deadline sale.

There’s no indication that the Yankees were involved on Valdez at the end, but they apparently also had some amount of interest earlier in the winter. Jon Heyman of The New York Post writes that the Yanks reviewed the pitcher’s medicals but dropped a potential pursuit after they re-signed Cody Bellinger to a five-year, $162MM deal. That vaulted their competitive balance tax figure around $330MM, and a second splash for Valdez seemed out of their financial zone. The Yankees acquired talented but oft-injured lefty Ryan Weathers in a trade with Miami. Beyond that, it seems they’ll rely mostly on their internal arms to hold down the rotation until Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole return.

Tigers, Framber Valdez Agree To Three-Year Deal

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The Tigers land the offseason’s top remaining free agent, reportedly agreeing to a three-year deal with Framber Valdez that guarantees $115MM. The deal, which is pending a physical, allows the star left-hander to opt out after the second season. It contains a $20MM signing bonus and an unspecified amount of deferred money. Valdez is represented by Octagon.

Valdez reunites with A.J. Hinch and gives the Tigers a lethal 1-2 pairing at the top of the rotation. He’ll slot behind Tarik Skubal atop a starting staff that suddenly looks like one of the best in the American League. They’ll be followed by Reese Olson, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize if everyone gets through camp healthy. That’d push KBO signee Drew Anderson into a swing role, while second-year righty Troy Melton can either pitch out of the bullpen or wait in Triple-A for a rotation spot to open.

The Skubal-Valdez pairing may only be together for one season, as the two-time defending Cy Young winner is a year away from what should be a record-setting free agent contract. Skubal and the club went to a hearing this morning that’ll determine whether he makes $19MM or $32MM for his final year under club control. The arbitrators will not reveal their decision until tomorrow, and Chris McCosky of The Detroit News confirms that neither the Tigers nor Skubal’s camp are aware yet of which way they’ll rule. The Valdez pickup is an independent decision.

It’s the kind of win-now strike for which much of the Detroit fanbase has waited all offseason. The Tigers had a fairly conservative trade deadline, and their biggest moves before tonight had been retaining Flaherty on a $20MM player option and Gleyber Torres via the $22.025MM qualifying offer. They also brought back setup man Kyle Finnegan on a two-year deal and added Anderson and closer Kenley Jansen on one-year contracts. They’d done a decent job building depth but without pushing the chips in for an impact player in what could be Skubal’s final season in the Motor City.

Valdez brings the ceiling that Detroit’s other acquisitions had lacked. He’s a two-time All-Star who has finished top 10 in Cy Young balloting in three of the past four seasons. Valdez worked his way from an unheralded amateur signee to the big leagues in 2018. He spent his first two seasons working in a swing role for an Astros club managed by Hinch. Valdez moved into the rotation permanently during the shortened 2020 campaign and has been one of the best pitchers in MLB over the last six years.

The southpaw has posted a sub-4.00 earned run average in each season since he became a full-time starter. He has been exceptionally durable as well, only twice landing on the injured list in his MLB career. He fractured his left ring finger when he was hit by a comebacker in Spring Training 2021. He was back from that injury by the end of May. His only other IL stint was a two-week absence for elbow inflammation early in ’24. He returned without issue and wound up making 29 starts between the regular season and playoffs.

Valdez is tied for 14th in starts and ranks fifth with 973 innings dating back to 2020. He has a cumulative 3.23 ERA in that time. That includes sub-3.00 showings in 2022 and ’24. Valdez was among the most consistent top-of-the-rotation starters in MLB — at least until the second half of his walk year. He posted an earned run average between 2.82 and 3.45 in each season between 2021-24. He topped 175 innings in each of the latter three years.

For the first half of last season, Valdez was on a similar pace. He took a 2.75 ERA over 121 frames into the All-Star Break. Valdez came out of the Break with two more quality starts and was sitting on a 2.62 ERA (a top 10 mark among qualifiers) as August arrived. He picked a tough time for arguably the worst couple months of his career. Valdez was blitzed for a 6.05 ERA with a dramatically reduced 17.7% strikeout rate over his final 10 starts. His sinker velocity dipped slightly, and opponents teed off on it in August and September. There’s no indication that he was tipping pitches, and it seems like the issue was mostly poor execution.

Valdez also found himself at the center of controversy during a start against the Yankees on September 2. Two pitches after giving up a grand slam to Trent Grisham, he hit catcher César Salazar in the chest with a 93 MPH sinker on a cross-up. Salazar was clearly expecting a breaking ball and didn’t have time to react to the fastball. Valdez didn’t check on the catcher in the moment. Salazar was not hurt and finished the game without issue.

The pitcher denied that the cross-up was intentional. Salazar did his best to publicly downplay the incident, saying he pressed the wrong button on his PitchCom. Even if that’s the case, the pitcher’s seeming lack of concern on the mound made for poor optics. Valdez said postgame that he had apologized to his battery mate.

Did that have any impact on his market value? It’s impossible to know from the outside, though one imagines some teams asked Valdez about the incident during the free agent process. It’s worth noting that a Detroit team managed by his former skipper is the one that eventually signed him, so it seems they don’t have any concerns about his makeup or clubhouse presence.

The late-season dip in production and Valdez’s age were probably bigger factors in his extended free agent stay. He finished the year with a 3.66 ERA across 192 innings. His 23.3% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk percentage were in line with his career marks. It’s a solid strikeout and walk profile, but his game has always been built more around ground-balls. He has a career 62% grounder rate and kept the ball on the ground at a 58.6% clip last season, the third-highest mark among pitchers with 100+ innings.

It’s not the whiff-heavy approach that someone like Dylan Cease brought to the table this offseason, though Valdez’s statistical profile isn’t that dissimilar from that of Max Fried. They’re both ground-ball specialists who sit in the mid-90s with a sinker that leads the profile. Fried commanded an eight-year, $218MM contract last winter. The biggest difference is that came in advance of his age-31 season, while Valdez turned 32 in November.

Although a one-year age gap might not seem like much, teams have been reluctant to make long-term commitments to free agent pitchers at 32. Zack Greinke, Jacob deGrom and Blake Snell are the only pitchers that age or older to command five-plus years since 2011. They’d all had at least one Cy Young on their résumés by that point. Valdez’s inconsistent finish essentially took a six-year contract off the table. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $150MM deal at the beginning of the offseason. That he remained unsigned into February made it increasingly apparent that a five-year contract wasn’t going to be out there.

On the surface, Valdez seems to have done fairly well despite signing a week before the beginning of Spring Training. The deal’s true value can’t really be known until the extent of the deferrals are reported, however. The sticker price comes with a massive $38.33MM average annual value that’d rank 10th all time. The net present value will be reduced to at least some extent by the deferred money.

Regardless of the contract breakdown, this easily goes down as Scott Harris’ boldest free agent move in his four years running baseball operations. It’s Detroit’s first nine-figure investment since the ill-fated Javier Baez deal, which was signed under former GM Al Avila. The Harris front office hadn’t gone beyond $35MM on a free agent. That was their two-year contract to re-sign Flaherty almost exactly a year ago. There are some parallels with Valdez in terms of waiting out the market to get a high-end starter for short term, but this is obviously a much more significant investment.

The Tigers ran a $188MM competitive balance tax payroll last season. They’re going to top that this year, though the extent isn’t clear. RosterResource currently estimates their CBT number around $237MM while penciling in the midpoint of the arbitration filing figures as a placeholder for Skubal. The arbitrators don’t have that luxury, meaning that CBT estimate will change by $6.5MM in one direction or another. It’s also using the base $38.33MM annual value for Valdez, which overshoots the actual number to an unknown extent until the deferral breakdown comes out.

Detroit also forfeits draft capital because Valdez rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros. They’re a revenue sharing recipient so it’s the lowest penalty, their third-highest pick in the 2026 draft. That’s currently slated to be their Competitive Balance Round B selection, which is 69th overall. The Tigers could look to trade that pick — Competitive Balance selections are the only ones that can be traded — rather than losing it as the compensatory pick. They’d then forfeit their third-round selection (#98 overall), but another team might be more willing to give up something of value for the higher draft choice and accompanying slot value that makes it worthwhile for Detroit to lose the third-rounder.

Houston never had any interest in meeting Valdez’s asking price. As luxury tax payors, they receive a compensation pick after the fourth round. That’ll land around 133rd overall. Houston traded for Mike Burrows and signed Tatsuya Imai and Ryan Weiss to backfill the rotation depth, even if they’re unlikely to replace the ceiling that Valdez brought.

The Blue Jays, Orioles and Pirates were recently linked to Valdez. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that the Twins surprisingly jumped in the mix as well. He was probably a unique target for a Toronto club that already runs six deep in the rotation. Baltimore could pivot to a mid-tier starter like Zac Gallen (the last unsigned player who declined a QO), Chris Bassitt or Lucas Giolito. A mid-rotation arm is also possible for Pittsburgh. At the very least, the Bucs figure to add a fifth starter for a few million dollars. Minnesota has a solid rotation but reportedly kicked the tires on a Freddy Peralta trade as well, seemingly staying on the periphery of the market for a potential impact arm.

Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the three-year, $115MM agreement with the opt-out after year two. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the presence of deferrals. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the $20MM bonus.

Image courtesy of Dale Zanine, Imagn Images.

Pirates Join Bidding For Framber Valdez

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The Pirates have emerged as a surprise entrant in the Framber Valdez market, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who calls the Bucs “one of the most aggressive clubs” in their pursuit of the star left-hander. Valdez rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros at the start of the offseason and would cost the Pirates their third-highest selection in the 2026 draft if a deal were to come together.

It’s an unexpected development that seems illogical at first blush, given the team’s already enviable stock of starting pitching and need to bolster the lineup. But adding Valdez to the mix could make sense, as it’d allow Pittsburgh to further dip into its supply of up-and-coming rotation arms and leverage that depth to acquire another bat.

Trade targets have thinned out as the offseason has worn on, but the Pirates could always try to engage with the D-backs on Ketel Marte, the Red Sox on Jarren Duran (or Wilyer Abreu), or the Nationals on CJ Abrams, speculatively speaking. There are surely some other names who’d be available if the Pirates, depending on which young arms the Pirates were to make available. Paul Skenes, of course, is wholly off limits. General manager Ben Cherington plainly said as much just days into the offseason. But even beyond Skenes, the Pirates have Mitch Keller, Braxton Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler ticketed for big league innings. Jared Jones will be back from UCL surgery this season. Young arms like Hunter Barco, Thomas Harrington and Wilber Dotel are on the 40-man roster and close to MLB-ready. Pittsburgh selected high school righty Seth Hernandez with the No. 6 overall pick in last summer’s draft. It’s a deep collection of starters.

Pairing Valdez with Skenes would give the Pirates one of the best one-two punches in the entire game. The 32-year-old lefty has been an iron man in Houston’s rotation in recent years. He’s pitched 767 2/3 innings of 3.21 ERA ball with a 23.9% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and gargantuan 60% ground-ball rate across the past four seasons. Among qualified starters, only Logan Webb has pitched more innings in that time. Andre Pallante, Clay Holmes and Jose Soriano are the only starters with better ground-ball rates in that same span, and Valdez’s ERA is tied with Seattle’s Bryan Woo for 18th.

Signing Valdez would very likely require the Pirates to put forth the largest contract in franchise history, but they’ve shown a willingness to do that already this winter, reportedly offering Kyle Schwarber $120-125MM over a four-year term. Valdez has been seeking a long-term deal, but the manner in which he’s lingered on the market is a good reminder of the paucity of such contracts for pitchers aged 32 and up. As can be seen in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there are only three instances of a free agent pitcher 32 or older commanding a five-year deal over the past 15 offseasons: Blake Snell, Jacob deGrom and Zack Greinke. All were former Cy Young winners with even stronger cases than Valdez currently has.

The Pirates currently project for a $95MM payroll in the upcoming season, per RosterResource. That, somewhat remarkably, is only a few million shy of their franchise-record. However, the pursuit of Valdez and unsuccessful bids for Schwarber and slugger Eugenio Suárez demonstrate a clear willingness to push the budget to previously unseen levels.

There’s been speculation about Valdez acquiescing to a shorter-term deal with opt-outs, as we’ve seen from various high-end free agents both this winter and in recent offseasons. It’s not yet clear whether he’s amenable to such a structure, nor is it clear whether Pittsburgh is considering that type of offer or a more conventional multi-year deal to lock Valdez into place for the foreseeable future. The Orioles have been the team most prominently linked to Valdez throughout the winter, but the Blue Jays are still in the mix and he’s been at least loosely connected to the Braves, Giants, Mets and Red Sox in recent weeks.

Blue Jays Have Continued Interest In Framber Valdez

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The Blue Jays remain interested in top free agent starter Framber Valdez, report Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post. Toronto reportedly met with Valdez at the GM Meetings back in early November. That predated their seven-year, $210MM contract with Dylan Cease, so it was hardly a given that the Jays were still involved.

Valdez is arguably the last impact player available on the open market. He’s certainly the highest-upside player remaining. There’s a decent supply of unsigned starting pitching, but most other players fit in the middle or back of the rotation. That includes Zac Gallen, the only other free agent who rejected a qualifying offer. Valdez is at least a high-end #2 starter and has ace potential.

The southpaw finished top 10 in Cy Young voting each season from 2022-24. He looked on that pace through the All-Star Break last year, turning in a 2.75 earned run average over 19 starts. Things went off the rails in the second half, as Valdez surrendered a 5.20 ERA over his final 12 starts. He also had the much publicized cross-up incident with third catcher César Salazar, as he came under fire for not showing much immediate concern after hitting Salazar in the chest with a fastball. Astros officials maintained they did not believe Valdez intentionally crossed the catcher up, and Salazar did his best to downplay the situation publicly.

In any case, Valdez hit the market coming off arguably his worst two-month stretch in years. He’s entering his age-32 season, an age at which five-plus year deals for free agent starting pitchers are rare. Blake Snell and Jacob deGrom are the only pitchers at 32 or older to sign for five years within the past decade. It’s not clear what Valdez sought at the beginning of the offseason, but it’s generally not a great omen for players’ markets if they’re unsigned into February. A short-term deal with opt-outs probably isn’t as appealing for Valdez as it would be for a younger free agent.

The Jays already run six deep in the rotation with Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, Cody Ponce and José Berríos. They’re broadly involved on every top free agent, so it’s possible they’re circling back to see if Valdez’s market has dropped to a level at which they feel the value is too good to ignore. Bieber has battled some elbow fatigue. Yesavage had some injury questions in college and just completed his first full professional season. Ponce is something of an unknown coming back from Korea, though the Jays wouldn’t have guaranteed him $30MM if they didn’t think he could be an effective starter.

Toronto could certainly justify taking this group into the season, but they’re evidently still kicking around rotation possibilities. Heyman said on an MLB Network appearance this afternoon that the Jays have some amount of interest in bringing Max Scherzer back. That’d obviously be a much cheaper move than even a short-term deal for Valdez, but Scherzer isn’t as clear of an upgrade over Toronto’s back-end arms.

RosterResource calculates the Jays’ luxury tax payroll around $310MM. That’s already a franchise record and lands them in the top tier of penalization. The Jays are near the Yankees and Phillies to round out a clear top five in projected spending behind the Dodgers and Mets. Signing Valdez would probably push them close to $340MM in CBT commitments, which would take them ahead of the Yankees and Philadelphia. They’d pay a 90% tax on the average annual value of any further free agent contracts. A hypothetical $30MM salary for Valdez would add another $27MM to their tax bill and amount to a $57MM investment overall.

Valdez comes attached to draft compensation, though that penalty isn’t as severe for the Jays because they already signed Cease. Toronto punted their second-round pick and their compensatory pick for Bo Bichette (after the fourth round) to add Cease. They’d give up their third and fifth rounders for Valdez, but those are each outside the top 100 overall.

Houston paid the luxury tax last year, so they’ll only receive a compensation pick after round four once Valdez signs elsewhere. That’s all but inevitable, as they’ve never seemed interested in meeting the southpaw’s asking price on a free agent deal. The collective bargaining agreement prohibits team personnel from explicitly saying they’re not pursuing specific players, but Houston GM Dana Brown reiterated this afternoon that the Astros “haven’t had any conversations lately” with the pitcher’s camp (video via Jason Bristol of KHOU 11 News).

Giants Notes: Lee, Matos, Rotation, Closer

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The Giants officially announced their two-year deal with Harrison Bader on Friday afternoon. President of baseball operations Buster Posey and general manager Zack Minasian conducted a conference call with the beat to introduce their new outfielder.

Posey confirmed that Bader will be the everyday center fielder, a move that pushes Jung Hoo Lee into right field on most days (link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). It doesn’t appear the incumbent center fielder had any issue with the change. “Jung Hoo was great,” Posey said of his reaction to the signing. “Also there’s an understanding on our end and to Jung Hoo that there’s a chance that he could still be getting reps in center field. But our plan is to have Bader playing center field.”

Lee had a decent amount of right field experience in Korea. He has played exclusively up the middle over his two seasons in the majors. Lee’s physical tools are strong. He’s an above-average runner with plus arm strength. His first step and routes weren’t as polished, and defensive metrics weren’t fond of his overall work. Statcast graded him five runs below average, while Defensive Runs Saved had him a glaring 18 runs worse than an average center fielder. No player had a worse DRS mark at the position.

The 27-year-old should grade more favorably in his new position. He’s a much better athlete than most corner outfielders. There’ll still be plenty of ground to cover in home games thanks to Oracle Park’s massive right-center gap. The move to a corner will put a little more pressure on the bat. Lee is coming off a solid but unspectacular .266/.327/.407 slash across 617 plate appearances. That’s much better than the .241/.303/.395 league mark for center fielders but lands more middle-of-the-pack in right, where the average player batted .247/.319/.422 last year.

Right field was the biggest weak point in the San Francisco lineup. After they traded Mike Yastrzemski at the deadline, their right fielders hit .202/.249/.376 across 194 plate appearances. Drew Gilbert projects as a fourth or fifth outfielder. Luis Matos was a well-regarded prospect but hasn’t found much success on either side of the ball over three MLB seasons. Matos is out of minor league options and will be a player to watch in camp, as he’ll either need to win a bench job or be taken off the 40-man roster.

Pushing Lee to right field leaves second base as the last potential position of need. The Giants have looked for upgrades over Casey Schmitt, with reports tying them to various trade targets (e.g. Brendan Donovan, Nico Hoerner, CJ Abrams). Posey declined to go into specifics in response to a question about trading for a second baseman, but that appears to be a bigger priority than further augmenting the rotation. The Giants stayed away from the top of the market, instead signing back-end arms Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser to short-term deals.

Even as Framber Valdez remains unsigned, Posey downplayed the desire to add another starter. “We’re happy with our rotation right now, with some of the adjustments that Houser made last year, and we feel like Mahle is in a good place physically,” he said (relayed by John Shea of The San Francisco Standard). “You’re never going to close doors, but we feel good with the group that we have.”

They’ve taken a similar approach to the bullpen despite losing key contributors Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers and Randy Rodríguez (the latter to Tommy John surgery) from last season. They’ve taken one-year fliers on Sam Hentges and Jason Foley, both of whom are returning from shoulder surgeries. There’ll be plenty of high-leverage innings available as first-year manager Tony Vitello evaluates the group. That extends to the closer role. Ryan Walker has the most ninth-inning experience of their relievers but is coming off an uneven year.

Walker tells Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle that he’s hoping to win the job, though it seems like it’ll be an open competition in Spring Training. “As we sit here today, I think we’re hoping that Ryan Walker can get back to his 2024 form. But without discussing it with Tony in depth, I guess the way that I would see it now is that we’ll see who steps up,” Posey told reporters (including Slusser). “We’re not coming into this season necessarily with one guy that we say, ‘You are going to be the closer.’ There’s a chance that somebody takes the reins and does slot in to that closer role as we get into the season, but right now I wouldn’t say that there’s one person that we’re targeting for the ninth inning.”

Which Team Will Sign Framber Valdez?

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Framber Valdez stands atop the pitching class and is arguably the offseason’s last marquee free agent. He and Zac Gallen are the two remaining players who declined qualifying offers. Those two pitchers and Eugenio Suárez are the three unsigned players who ranked among MLBTR’s Top 20 free agents entering the winter.

Suárez was always going to be capped to two or three years by his age. Gallen is coming off a down season and is a candidate for a pillow contract with an opt-out. On the other hand, Valdez came into the winter as arguably the best available pitcher. His age and middling second half performance — plus the bizarre cross up incident with catcher César Salazar that could lead to some questions from teams — meant he hit the market on a bit of a down note himself. Valdez is nevertheless coming off a 3.66 ERA showing with an above-average 23.3% strikeout rate and massive 58.6% grounder percentage across 192 innings. It’s his fourth straight full season and sixth year in a row with a sub-4.00 earned run average.

Valdez’s age (32) made a six-year deal a stretch. A five-year contract seemed more plausible, with a strong four-year pact appearing to be the floor. There hasn’t been much about Valdez’s market or whether his camp would target a shorter deal with opt-outs as Spring Training approaches. Valdez clearly hasn’t found a deal to his liking, yet he’s probably the last top-of-the-rotation starter who’ll change teams this offseason.

A Tarik Skubal trade has always felt like a long shot. Freddy Peralta, MacKenzie Gore, Edward Cabrera and Shane Baz are off the trade market. Dylan Cease landed with the Blue Jays on a seven-year deal within the first couple weeks of the offseason. The market didn’t value NPB righty Tatsuya Imai as a top-of-the-rotation arm. Valdez has higher upside than any of the other remaining starters in free agency (e.g. Gallen, Lucas Giolito, Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander).

Valdez has most frequently been linked to the Orioles. They entered the offseason needing a top-end starter, and president of baseball operations Mike Elias has ties to the southpaw from his days in the Houston front office. The O’s acquired Baz in a trade to address the rotation and signed Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155MM free agent deal. There’s reportedly still room in the budget, but another $30MM+ annual salary for Valdez would cap a much bigger offseason than usual for the Orioles.

The Mets, Blue Jays and Red Sox are all known to have met with Valdez around the Winter Meetings. They’ve each added a different marquee pitcher (Peralta, Cease and Ranger Suárez, respectively). The Astros have never seemed inclined to bring Valdez back. The Giants also met with the two-time All-Star, but they’ve consistently downplayed their desire to sign anyone long term.

Where does that leave Valdez? Will Baltimore or San Francisco get aggressive, or does the long wait open up the opportunity for a mystery team?

 

Phillies Notes: Bichette, Roster, Castellanos, Wheeler

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The Phillies formally announced their re-signing of catcher J.T. Realmuto this morning. Realmuto, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and manager Rob Thomson were all on hand for a media session conducted over Zoom shortly thereafter. Dombrowski, fielding questions regarding the reported pursuit of Bo Bichette and the late pivot back to Realmuto, candidly acknowledged that his club did indeed feel it was close to closing a deal with Bichette before the Mets jumped in following Kyle Tucker’s deal with the Dodgers.

“I can’t say that we ever thought it was done,” Dombrowski said when asked if he’d felt they had an agreement in place with Bichette. “We thought we were very close to having a deal done. We thought it was going to happen, but it wasn’t done. … Until you sign a memo of understanding, you don’t have a deal done — and we did not sign one of those. It wasn’t that we weren’t moving toward that direction. It isn’t that we didn’t think we were going to get there. But we just did not get to that point.”

The Bichette talks were serious enough that Dombrowski acknowledged informing Realmuto’s camp that they were likely to go in another direction and wouldn’t be able to make both signings happen at this time. When they got word of Bichette’s deal with the Mets, Dombrowski said he was back on the phone with Realmuto and his agent within an hour or so — his only interim call going to owner John Middleton, to keep him apprised of the situation. The veteran baseball operations executive conceded that it’s a “gut punch” anytime free agent or trade negotiations get to that stage and don’t culminate in a deal before adding, “you can’t just wallow in what took place” and that he had to simply “shake it off” and continue trying to improve his club. Notably, he added that the Phils were never interested in a short-term, opt-out-laden contract with Bichette.

Given that the Phillies were willing to offer a reported $190-200MM to Bichette over a seven-year term, it’s fair to wonder whether there might be some forthcoming additions. Realmuto, after all, commanded less than 25% of that sum in total. Dombrowski, however, at least strongly implied that his club is done with significant spending this winter. Asked about the lingering availability of impact names like Framber Valdez and Cody Bellinger, Dombrowski declined to get into specifics regarding any particular free agent but demurred to say:

“I really can’t speak to that, by the baseball rules — because they’re free agents — but I’d just say I think we’re content where we are at this point.”

With Realmuto back in the fold, the Phillies’ current payroll (as projected by RosterResource) sits just over $281MM. They’re at more than $317MM worth of luxury obligations, meaning they’d pay a 110% tax on any subsequent additions to the roster. Based on the Bichette pursuit, it seems Middleton was willing to extend further beyond the current price of the roster, but not that the Phillies have the proverbial money burning a hole in their pockets.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t room for some smaller-scale additions. Dombrowski alluded to the potential of bringing in some depth options for the rotation. He also candidly confirmed on the record that the team plans to move on from Nick Castellanos in some capacity. Castellanos is owed $20MM this season — the last of a five-year, $100MM contract signed in the 2021-22 offseason. Asked point-blank if he still “expect[s] to make a change of scenery [for Castellanos] before spring training opens,” Dombrowski replied: “Yes, we do. We still plan on doing that.”

A change of scenery has been presumed for months now. The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reported early in the winter that the Phils were likely to either trade or release Castellanos. The latter has seemed likelier all along, if only because finding a taker for even part of Castellanos’ salary is a tall order. The 33-year-old (34 in March) hit .250/.294/.400 with 17 home runs last season — about 10% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+. That lack of offensive help was coupled with more bottom-of-the-scale defense in the outfield, the second-worst walk rate and average exit velocity of his career, and the lowest hard-hit rate he’s ever posted.

It’s feasible that as spring draws nearer, the Phillies might find a buy-low taker willing to pay a few million of the deal. Even getting someone to take on $2MM of that remaining $20MM would actually trim $4.2MM off the Phillies’ 2026 budget, given the previously mentioned 110% tax they’re paying on every dollar over the top luxury threshold. Clubs like the Pirates, Reds and Royals have been looking for more bats all offseason and could theoretically roll the dice on a hopeful rebound. Other clubs could come calling if they incur some injuries in spring training. For now, Castellanos remains on the roster.

One other item of note from today’s media session included a brief update on injured ace Zack Wheeler. The 35-year-old righty underwent thoracic outlet surgery in late September, and a timeline on his return has been murky. That’s generally still true, but both Dombrowski and Thomson noted that Wheeler has been throwing from flat ground and is up to a distance of 90 feet. Thomson added that Wheeler had a “heavy” workload last week and is expected to be at the team’s spring complex for more throwing on Thursday.

“No timetable, but so far the reports have been good,” Thomson said of his veteran righty.

Wheeler was diagnosed with venous thoracic outlet syndrome late in the season. It’s an ominous injury but the less severe form of TOS (as opposed to neurogenic TOS). Venous TOS comes with blood clots that can be life threatening but, as D-backs righty Merrill Kelly explained to Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post several years ago, a “more straightforward” diagnosis and recovery. (Kelly pitched nearly a full season in 2021, the year after his venous TOS procedure, and has since done the best work of his career over the past four seasons.)

The original timetable for Wheeler was six to eight months, though every rehab process is unique and contingent upon the individual pitcher’s body. It’s encouraging that Wheeler appears to be on track, but the fact that he’s not yet working off a mound with only three weeks until pitchers and catchers report doesn’t bode well for hitting the shorter end of that window. A six-month return would’ve put Wheeler in games by late March, just prior to Opening Day. Eight months would set him back until around Memorial Day weekend. The Phillies will surely have plenty of updates as spring training progresses.

In Wheeler’s absence, the Philadelphia rotation will include Cy Young runner-up Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker. Longtime top prospect Andrew Painter is the current favorite for the fifth spot, but he has yet to make a major league debut and struggled in Triple-A last year during his return season from Tommy John surgery. Righties Yoniel Curet, Alan Rangel and Jean Cabrera are all on the 40-man roster, but none of that trio has a major league start under his belt. Adding at least one veteran swingman or starter, if not two, seems like a prudent course of action — even if it’s only on a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.

Blue Jays Met With Framber Valdez In November

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Fresh off a run to the World Series, the Blue Jays have been very active on the free agent market. They signed top free agent starter Dylan Cease to a seven-year deal and also brought in Kazuma Okamoto, Tyler Rogers, and Cody Ponce. The past few days have not gone in their favor, though. Toronto was one of the top suitors for Kyle Tucker and offered him $350MM over ten years before he signed with the Dodgers. They also hoped to re-sign Bo Bichette, but he opted for a short-term, high-AAV deal with the Mets yesterday.

After coming up short on Tucker and Bichette, it’s plausible the team could shift their focus back to adding more pitching. Lefty Framber Valdez remains available, and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that the Blue Jays met with him at the GM meetings back in November. Nicholson-Smith clarifies that the meeting was before Cease’s signing, but there was mutual interest between the two sides at the time.

Valdez has so far been publicly linked to the Orioles, Giants, Mets, and Red Sox. The Orioles’ interest was reported even after they signed Pete Alonso for $155MM over five years. The Giants are more interested in a short-term deal, while the Mets reportedly prefer to add pitching via trade. The Red Sox also Met with Valdez in November, but they may no longer be a fit after signing Ranger Suarez and trading for Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo.

As for the Blue Jays, their current interest in Valdez is unclear, as is their ability to fit him into the payroll. RosterResource has their 2026 payroll at $282MM and their CBT payroll at $310.5MM, which puts them over the maximum luxury tax line of $304MM. While their offer for Tucker would have carried a $35MM AAV plus a $31.5MM luxury tax bill, he may have been a special case as the clear top hitter on the market.

Meanwhile, Valdez is older than all three of Tucker, Bichette, and Cease. He was predicted to land a five-year, $150MM deal on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list. As a second-year luxury tax payor, the Jays would owe $27MM in tax penalties on that $30MM AAV, making Valdez a $57MM total cost in 2026 if they were to sign him. He also rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros, so he would cost the Jays their second- and fifth-highest draft picks in 2026. With a projected rotation of Cease, Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Ponce, it’s possible that Valdez is both too expensive and more of a want than a need for Toronto.

Of course, none of that takes away from Valdez’s track record. From 2022-25, he was worth 16.5 fWAR, which was fifth-best among qualified starters between Gausman and Cease. A lot of that success has come from Valdez’s suppression of home runs and exceptional groundball rates. In those four seasons, his 0.68 HR/9 is tied for fifth-best among qualified starters. His groundball rate of 60.0% is tops among starters with at least 500 innings. For Valdez, that number has never dipped below 54.2% in a full season.

He has also built a reputation for durability. Valdez’s 767 2/3 innings since the start of 2022 are second-most in the majors behind only Giants ace Logan Webb. This past year was more of the same. In 31 starts with the Astros, Valdez pitched 192 innings with a 3.66 ERA, a 58.6% groundball rate, and an above-average 14.8% K-BB rate.

He did show some signs of wear as the season went on, posting a 5.20 ERA in 71 innings in the second half. The last two months were especially rough. In August, Valdez only struck out 12.8% of hitters. In September and October, he became uncharacteristically homer-prone, allowing six long balls in 27 2/3 innings (1.95 HR/9). On the positive side, his sinker remained a dominant pitch, with a run value of 15 according to Statcast as well as above-average vertical break. While a long-term deal would take Valdez into his mid-30s, he should at least maintain a strong floor thanks to his durability and extreme groundball tendencies.

The market has been solid for pitchers looking for long-term deals. Cease was coming off an uneven walk year with the Padres and still got seven years from the Jays. Suarez just got five years and $130MM from Boston, matching our contract prediction in length and outdoing it by $15MM in value. Tatsuya Imai is perhaps the only starter expected to get a long-term deal who settled for a shorter pact (three years, $54MM with the Astros). Age aside, Valdez has a lengthy track record and should do better than Imai, at least in terms of AAV.

Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images

Red Sox Rumors: Suarez, Bichette, Valdez, Rotation

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The Red Sox are still reeling from Alex Bregman’s departure for the Cubs but have minimal time to lick their wounds. The free agent and trade markets have begun to pick up some steam, and whatever Boston’s pivot from losing Bregman will be, it’ll need to come together before terribly long. The Bregman deal and the trade of Nolan Arenado from St. Louis to Arizona both figure to get the ball rolling with regard to the infield market. There are also indications that the market for top free agent Kyle Tucker is gaining steam as well. Even though Tucker understandably isn’t a target for a Red Sox team that’s deep in lefty-swinging outfielders, reports of him nearing a decision only give further credence to the idea that the market will accelerate with pitchers and catchers just a month from reporting to spring training.

It’s not entirely clear how Boston will look to counteract Bregman’s defection just yet. Both Bo Bichette and Eugenio Suarez have been mentioned as possible fallback options. The fit in either case makes sense. Both swing right-handed and have batted-ball profiles that would fit well at Fenway Park. Suarez could step into Bregman’s spot at third base. Bichette could play third base or second base. Former top prospects Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell could factor in at whichever of those two positions is not filled externally.

Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive provide some context in their latest column, as does Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Per McAdam and Cotillo, the Red Sox showed preliminary interest in Suarez earlier in the offseason but were first waiting to see how the markets for not only Bregman but also Ketel Marte and Jorge Polanco played out. Suarez’s camp is operating under the assumption that there’s some interest and will soon be told whether the Sox plan to make a serious bid, per the report. Speier’s report generally backs up that line of thinking; he writes that the Red Sox have viewed Suarez as a fallback and had not seriously engaged with his camp prior to Bregman’s signing.

Suarez, 35 in July, popped 49 homers last season but hit .228/.298/.526 overall. He once graded as a strong defender at the hot corner but has seen his defensive grades slip as he’s aged into his mid-30s — as is often the case. His thunderous right-handed power and pull-happy approach make him a natural fit at Fenway Park, where he could pummel the Green Monster with line drives and clear it with regularity, but Suarez finished the season on a down note; his production waned after a trade from the D-backs to the Mariners last summer. After hitting .248/.320/.576 with a 26.8% strikeout rate for the Snakes, he posted a .189/.255/.428 slash with a 36% strikeout rate in 53 games for the M’s.

At the outset of free agency, MLBTR predicted a three-year deal worth a bit more than $20MM annually for Suarez. That contract seemed likely if a team were to make him a priority. That he’s been viewed as something of a fallback to sluggers like Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso, as well as top infield free agents like Bregman and Bichette, would at least seem to imply that a two-year deal may now be likelier. A two-year contract certainly would align with the Red Sox’ apparent aversion to long-term deals for players in their 30s, but Boston will face competition in signing him. The Mariners remain open to a reunion, and the Pirates, who’ve spent the offseason searching for power upgrades, have interest as well.

The Sox will face competition with regard to Bichette, too — if they plan to pursue him at all. Bichette is 27 and won’t turn 28 until March. His age makes him a candidate to sign the type of long-term deal the Red Sox have been reluctant to put forth to free agents. Both the MassLive and Globe reports cast significant doubt on whether the Red Sox would actually engage in a legitimate bidding war with a team like the Phillies, who met with Bichette just yesterday and are far more comfortable doling out long-term contracts (at least based on recent history).

Depending on how or even if the Red Sox end up accomplishing their goal of adding another hitter, a reallocation of the funds previously earmarked for Bregman could come into play. Both MassLive and the Globe suggest that a pivot to the rotation is something the Sox could now pursue. Speier suggests that the Sox are “open-minded” with regard to the position another impact player could fill. That could mean the rotation or, speculatively speaking, perhaps a run at improving the catching corps. J.T. Realmuto is still a free agent, and the Phillies reportedly don’t think they can sign both Bichette and Realmuto.

If the Sox pivot to the rotation, there are still some notable names on the market. Tim Healey of the Boston Globe reports that as far back as November, Red Sox brass had an in-person sit-down with Framber Valdez’s camp. That meeting came at the GM Meetings, where Valdez reportedly met with at least the Giants and Orioles as well.

Valdez, 32 next year, might not have been a top target after the Red Sox acquired Sonny Gray and pivoted to upgrading the lineup. However, he’d fit the stated goal of adding a No. 2 starter for a playoff series more directly than Gray. A postseason rotation with options including Garrett Crochet, Valdez, Gray and Brayan Bello would be quite strong, and it’s always possible that a touted young arm like Payton Tolle or Connelly Early forces his way into the mix.

Valdez became a free agent for the first time this offseason when he rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros, the only organization he’s ever known. He’s topped 190 innings in three of the past four seasons, pitching to a collective 3.21 ERA in 767 2/3 frames along the way. Valdez’s strikeout rate, walk rate and especially his 60% ground-ball rate have all been far better than the league average during that four-year span.

Signing Valdez, however, would require the Red Sox to punt their second- and fifth-highest selections in this summer’s draft, as well as $1MM of space in next year’s bonus pool for international free agent amateurs. The same is true of longtime Phillies southpaw Ranger Suarez and longtime D-backs righty Zac Gallen, both of whom rejected QOs as well. Whether they’d make those future concessions while simultaneously easing their reluctance to commit long-term deals to veterans in their 30s is an open question, but the Red Sox have now missed out on Bregman, Alonso and Schwarber in free agency, and top trade target Marte doesn’t sound like he’ll be moved at all. They’ll need to find a new plan of attack in the coming days, particularly with offseason activity picking back up following the annual holiday-season lull.

Orioles Notes: Henderson, Valdez, Astros

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Gunnar Henderson’s third full Major League season was another success, as the infielder hit .274/.349/.438 with 17 home runs over 651 plate appearances.  It was more or less a match for the 2023 season that earned Henderson AL Rookie of the Year honors — Henderson posted a 122 wRC+ and 4.7 fWAR that year, and a 120 wRC+ and 4.8 fWAR in 2025.

Last season’s numbers were, however, a step back from the 154 wRC+ and 7.9 fWAR Henderson delivered in 2024.  Henderson missed most of Spring Training and the first week of regular-season action recovering from an intercostal strain, but the shortstop revealed Thursday that he also spent about “three-quarters of the year” dealing with a heretofore unknown shoulder impingement.

In an interview on WBAL’s Orioles Hot Stove Show (hat tip to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko), Henderson said “I just wasn’t able to hold the plane and my body was adjusting to it, not feeling great, so that didn’t really set up me in the right spot to leverage the ball like I normally do.”  Despite his solid production, Henderson “could never get to the spot that I wanted to get to with my swing, but no excuse.  Just had to play through it and felt like I still with all those circumstances put up a decent year.  Looking forward to being healthy this year and getting back to my normal self.”

The injury wasn’t serious enough to merit a trip to the injured list, or even any missed time, as Henderson played in 154 of 155 games after being activated from the IL on April 4.  Since the Orioles faded from contention pretty early in the season, the team certainly should’ve shut down Henderson or at least reduced his playing time if there was any real concern over his shoulder.

With Henderson now predicting good health for 2026, the shoulder impingement can probably just be written off as a yet another footnote within an injury-riddled season for the Orioles roster.  Getting the 2024 version of Henderson back would go a long way towards helping the O’s return to playoff contention after their disappointing 75-win campaign.

Having Framber Valdez in the rotation would also be a huge boost, and the possibility of a big rotation add remains alive since the Orioles have been linked to the free agent southpaw’s market.  This isn’t the first time Baltimore has looked to acquire Valdez, however, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon report that the left-hander was part of a four-player trade package the Astros were prepared to send to the O’s for Zack Britton at the 2017 trade deadline.

It was known at the time that a Britton trade fell apart at the last minute between the two sides, with the Orioles reportedly pulling out due to medical concerns over two of the players involved.  Houston’s side of the deal wasn’t known until now, as Rosenthal/Sammon report that the Astros were offering Valdez (then a somewhat unheralded Double-A prospect), J.D. Davis, Jason Martin, and Rogelio Armenteros for Britton, who was in the midst of an injury-shortened season but was arguably baseball’s best closer when healthy.

While initial reports said the Orioles took issue with the medical of both pitchers (Armenteros and Valdez) in the trade offer, Rosenthal/Sammon write that Baltimore’s issue was just with Armenteros.  Former Orioles owner Peter Angelos was somewhat notorious for his caution over pitcher health, leading to several trades or free agent signings that were renegotiated at the eleventh hour, or abandoned altogether.

Armenteros’ MLB career ended up consisting of five appearances for the Astros in 2019 and he missed the entire 2020 season due to surgery to remove a bone spur from his throwing elbow.  In this context, it’s hard to say the Orioles were incorrect in their concern, though Arementeros ended up being the least-accomplished of the four players Houston offered.  Beyond just Valdez, Davis became a very productive infielder once the Astros traded him to the Mets during the 2018-19 offseason, and that breakout could’ve very well happened in Baltimore rather than in New York.  Martin’s MLB career consisted of 85 games with the Pirates and Rangers from 2019-21, but Martin was one of the four players the Astros sent to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole prior to the 2018 season.

The Astros went onto win the 2017 World Series anyway without Britton, and Valdez ended up being a cornerstone piece of the team’s success over the last decade.  While Houston’s front office (which included current Orioles president of baseball ops Mike Elias at the time) was surely irritated when the Orioles pulled the plug on the Britton trade, the team came out on top in the long run, and it’s another example of how you just never know which prospect might end up as the key figure of a trade package.

In fairness to the O’s, there wasn’t much indication at the time that Valdez would turn into a frontline starter, and it is possible Valdez wouldn’t have developed as well as he did in Baltimore’s organization rather than in Houston.  The 2017 season was the first of five straight losing seasons for the Orioles as they entered a rebuilding period under Elias, and it is interesting to wonder how having Valdez (and Davis) around might’ve changed the trajectory of that rebuild.

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