Mark P
- Hello, Weekend Chat chatters! We’ll open up the question bag in a minute, so get your comments in…
Brett
- Freddy Peralta for River Ryan and Eduardo Quintero. Who says no?
Mark P
- Brewers, without hesitation
Jed Hoyer
- Matt Shaw to St. Louis for Brendan Donovan. Who says no?
Mark P
- The Cubs, since I think they value Shaw more highly than two years of Donovan. Also, the chances of a Chicago/St. Louis trade of this magnitude are very, very low.
Preller
- Am I going to surprise people with a free agent strike? Maybe framber with opt outs?
Mark P
- This seems like a possibility, but then again, it seemed like Suarez was perhaps heading into short-term/opt-out territory until he landed that deal from Boston that beat expectations.
Yankees
- What was it about the Yankees that they didn’t make an all-out push to sign Imai?
Mark P
- They just didn’t value him that highly? Probably just as simple as that.
Dan S.
- Most likely to move: Peralta, Gore, Lodolo or Bubic?
Mark P
- Just my two cents, but from most to least, I’d rank them Bubic, Peralta, Gore, Lodolo.
The Reds’ rotation is such their bread-and-butter that I don’t see them moving any of their big three. Gore is probably staying put this offseason, but the trade deadline could be a different story.
Jagger
- Do you think the Reds trade Brady Singer? he’s only under contract for 1 more season before hitting FA. I would think the Reds would like to get something in return for him.
Mark P
- He has long seemed like the most logical Reds starter to be on the move, but no deal to date. Doesn’t mean a trade couldn’t still happen in the next few weeks, but it’d be interesting to see what kind of significant bat (if any) the Reds could acquire for one season of a solid starter but one who probably projects as a back-end starter on a good team
- In general, Singer isn’t the type of pitcher who’s a lock to start a playoff game. Teams are only willing to give up so much for such a player.
Cj james
- Braves are unlucky again with Kim. They will have to get someone else right
Mark P
- Not necessarily, since Dubon can fill in on a temporary basis. Kim’s recovery timeline of 4-5 months is broad enough that if he’s “only” going to be out until mid-May, Atlanta might just roll with Dubon until then at shortstop. But, the Braves will likely pick up a veteran backup infielder type heading into spring training
Stafford
- Why aren’t more teams tanking/rebuilding with the lack of parity in MLB. Specifically the Angels…they can’t even outspend their problems!
Mark P
- Over the last three seasons, 22 of MLB’s 30 teams have made the playoffs at least once. There’s plenty of parity.
Ross Atkins
- Do I have any interest in a Brendon Donovan/ Jojo Romero sweap
Mark P
- Both would fit in Toronto, but the Jays have enough utility infield types that Donovan probably isn’t a priority (and especially not at the Cardinals’ asking price). Romero would be the better fit of the two.
Mike
- Wilbur wood passed. I saw him pitch for the seattle rainier. He had a nice mlb career. He pitched 300 innings plus a number of times. Will we ever see a pitcher get 300 innings again? I was 9 when I saw him in the old six stadium
Mark P
- Barring a major sea change in how teams develop and handle pitchers, we won’t see anyone even approach 300 innings again. It’s rare to see a pitcher even crack the 200-inning mark these days.
o-birds
- The Orioles rotation still needs help is Elias going to do something Verlander is not the answer either
Mark P
- …does the strikethrough mean you disagree with your own take? I agree that Verlander isn’t a huge upgrade over what the O’s already have, but he would be a decent add
Dread Pirate Roberts
- I think the Mariners should roll with Young and Williamson again in the early part of the season and evaluate at the deadline.
Mark P
- This might be what Seattle just ends up doing. Between these two and Emerson making his MLB debut at some point, that could be enough for the M’s to get by, providing that the rest of the lineup delivers. If not, and Young/Williamson still aren’t hitting, it’s a problem.
Dave Dombrowski
- How badly did I miscalculate?
Mark P
- The Phillies did what everyone expected in re-signing Schwarber and JTR. And, Adolis was added for RF and the bullpen was shaken up a little via the Keller signing and the Strahm trade.
So far, I’m not sure this Philly offseason counts as a “miscalculation” in any major sense. If you’re talking about the team’s approach with Bichette, a seven-year offer perhaps just wasn’t on Bichette’s radar….it was either a mega-deal, or a shorter-term pact with opt-outs.
- As much as Dombrowski has a history of big moves, it might very well be that he’s seen this Phillies team has essentially done in terms of heavy lifting for a couple of years now, to the point where the “new” additions are extending and re-signing the building blocks. Obviously signing Bichette would’ve counted as a big shake-up, but perhaps coming to those talks somewhat late just didn’t give the two sides enough time to develop a workable arrangement
Dallas
- Pirates finished with 71 wins last year with barely any hitters over 100 wRC+. Adding in OHearn and Lowe should really help them. Could they realistically content for a WC spot and if not, what is holding them back?
Mark P
- I think they’ve got a decent shot at a wild card as presently constructed. I’d like to see one more notable bat added to really spark things upwards, however.
Guest
- Any chance the Jays make a push for Framber or Bellinger after missing out on Tucker?
Mark P
- Ben Nicholson-Smith’s report the other day indicated that the Jays’ contact with Valdez happened two months ago, before Cease or Ponce signed. So Valdez likely isn’t happening, unless somehow Berrios is traded.
Bellinger I can still see as a viable maybe, but the Blue Jays are probably there with the NY teams in being wary about giving Bellinger six+ years
- (I almost wrote “6-7 years” there. Sorry, kids.)
Mets Infield
- Polanco at 1st for the first time and Bo at 3rd for the first time; is the Mets’ infield going to be a calamity? There are sure to be growing pains, no?
Mark P
- It’s an odd arrangement for a team that went into the offseason preaching better defense. The open DH spot can do a lot of heavy lifting in giving people partial off-days and allowing for some better glovesmen to get into the field, but it’ll be a work in progress.
The Big Q
- You being bombarded with Dodgers/lockout/salary cap questions right now?
Mark P
- Not any greater extent than usual
Guest
- I hear the Yankees viewed Imai as a reliever too, which they probably didn’t want to spend too $$$ on.
Mark P
- That’s true, Jon Heyman had that item in a recent report
Mitchell
- Saw people in the Nationals online community discussing Rhys Hoskins as a possible signing for 1B. That kind of move would make sense to me, what do you think?
Mark P
- That makes sense as a stopgap, sure. One-year deal with an eye towards trading Hoskins to a contender at the deadline.
Champdo
- So the Tigers aren’t going to try to upgrade their offense?
Mark P
- It’s been puzzlingly quiet on the offense front for Detroit. I get that they don’t want to block their prospects, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t add at least short-term help.
Just a question
- Correct me if I’m wrong, doesn’t a salary cap also cap tax revenue?
Mark P
- Depends on the type of cap. If it’s a hard cap like the NFL or NHL, there’s no tax involved. If it’s a soft cap like the NBA with various levels of aprons and whatnot, there will be some tax revenue available.
The MLBPA is almost certainly not going to accept any kind of salary cap in the next round of CBA talks. But, in the very remote chance they did, it would have to be a soft cap that still allows for some level of overages.
Guest
- The RedSox are in a world of hurt
Mark P
- They’re signing Frank Thomas?!
C
- What could the Yankees get if they made JC Escarra available to the Red Sox? Kyle Harrison?
Mark P
- I realize that Harrison hasn’t done a ton yet at the MLB level, but that is an absurd overpay for Escarra
Warrens baseball
- Is there a good chance some kind of heavy deterrent to spending at dodgers levels will be put in place during this upcoming cba?
Mark P
- I suspect there will be some kind of crackdown on deferred money. The MLBPA might (very big might) be open to that, but more realistically they’ll still view it as an attempt to limit salaries, and they’ll be correct
Trey
- Isn’t this a good time for Cards to rebuild – especially with the pontential stoppage
Mark P
- Last year seemed like an even better team for the Cardinals to rebuild, yet they didn’t. Notwithstanding how their hands were tied by some no-trade clauses, it still makes me scratch my head about how even guys like Helsley, etc. weren’t dealt.
- Weren’t dealt last winter, that is
Kyle
- Chances Hoerner gets moved this offseason?
Mark P
- Pretty low. The Cubs aren’t moving him unless they get a huge offer, plus Nico has a no-trade clause
- Oops, wait, correction, I forgot that he’s one of the few Cubs that didn’t have a NTC in his deal
Huckleberry
- Do all these cast-offs the Angels have acquired equate to a competitive baseball teamv
Mark P
- Nope. Sorry Angels fans, you’re in for another rough year.
I’m back!
- Jo Adell for Brett Baty?
Mark P
- Ah, a Jo Adell trade question….feels like old times!
This deal makes a decent amount of sense for both sides, but I think the Mets want an actual center fielder, not a guy who can play center field but with poor glovework
Red Sox
- How high of a ranked prospect will we need to add to trade Yoshida ?
Mark P
- Considering those trades with the Cardinals, I wonder if the timing had worked out better (i.e. if Contreras had been more willing to waive his no-trade clause earlier), if Yoshida could’ve just been dealt to St. Louis as salary offset as part of a package for both Gray and Contreras. Probably still no, since while the Cards were eating money in the trades anyway, they still wanted players back
Guest
- Super Bowl predictions
Mark P
- At this point it’s probably foolish to pick anyone but the Patriots, who are having one of the luckiest seasons in the history of sports.
Former Giants Fan
- Are they really going to stand Pat and literally do basically nothing to upgrade their roster this year? Tell me they still have a move or 2 coming.
Mark P
- It occurs to me that these chats have had messages like these from Giants fans for the better part of two months now, and I keep writing things like “still plenty of time….”
And it’s still true, but y’know, it is January 18 and the Giants still have sizable holes in the outfield and at second base.
- As I’ve written before, I find it hard to believe that the Giants won’t do SOMETHING noteworthy beyond adding Mahle and Hauser to the rotation.
Guest
- Bubic to Mets for jet williams
Mark P
- No chance Williams is dealt for one season of Bubic.
Angels
- It’s obvious halos are not going to spend this off season, is Arte going to sell?
Mark P
- Moreno walked back his past attempts at exploring a sale, but he could revisit things after the next CBA is finalized. Only Moreno knows the question to this question, of course.
Greg
- Do you see the Pirates moving Henry Davis or Endy Rodriguez to one of these catcher needy teams?
Mark P
- Endy is the likelier of the two, just because the Pirates might not be able to bring themselves to move a 1-1 player just yet
Andrew
- Suppose the owners get their salary cap. What happens to contracts like Ohtani’s, Soto’s, etc? Would they be grandfathered in and the Dodgers and Mets would just be mostly unable to sign free agents until they come off the books?
Mark P
- As noted earlier, if the MLBPA did somehow agree to any sort of a cap, it would be a soft cap with some sort of luxury tax still attached for overages. So depending on how stiff the penalties are, the Dodgers/Mets/etc. could decide they don’t really care about the penalties and keep spending big.
But, the league would certainly create a year or two of grace period for teams to get under this new cap
Chip
- SF Giant suggestion: trade Heliot Ramos and his horrible defense to STL for Donovan. Sign Bellinger and Bader to fix that outfield D, and still stay under the tax. Thoughts?
Mark P
- Ramos probably isn’t the kind of player St. Louis is targeting in Donovan trade talks.
Ari
- do you think the rays will sign a catcher or infielder or trade for someone
Mark P
- Trade seems much more like Tampa’s style
JRam
- I don’t really have a question but I think that with the events of this year’s off season baseball should celebrate one of the few non-mercenaries in the sport who stayed with his team because he understood that he can live off of a couple hundred million dollars. Probably the last player to ever do it.
Mark P
- I don’t blame any player for trying to maximize their earning potential, nor do I blame Ramirez for being content in Cleveland and being okay with a below-market deal.
I do have to put some blame towards Guardians ownership for having this rare scenario of a superstar-level player on a relative bargain deal, yet still not being particularly aggressive in trying to win during Ramirez’s prime
Hami
- Id the Trop going to be ready for the Rays to play in or are they playing at Steinbrenner field again?
Mark P
- The Trop is on track to be ready for Opening Day
Phillies offseason
- So in other words, the Phillies off-season has not been elite?
Mark P
- “Ah ha ha!” — Family Guy ostrich voice
Mark S
- Noise and impatient fan bases aside when it comes to offseason moves, what is your current power ranking in the NL East and how close/similar are the top teams to each other?
Mark P
- Phillies are the clear #1 and Nationals are the clear #5. In between I’d go Braves, Mets, Marlins in that order, for now.
Tim
- Has anyone thanked the Dodgers for the lockout that will wipe out the 2027 season?
Mark P
- A lockout was always happening no matter who’d won the last two World Series
George Brett
- What’s up with Jac Caglione? Kid was as highly regarded as they come last year and now he may not even make the opening day roster?
Mark P
- He just wasn’t ready for the majors. While he was crushing minor league pitching, Caglianone clearly didn’t have enough seasoning yet to adjust to the Show. Doesn’t mean he can’t or won’t be very good in the future, but counting on him even for 2026 is a risk for the Royals.
This is where KC’s failure to upgrade their outfield last offseason cost them. If they’d brought in at least one good OF last winter, perhaps the Royals don’t feel as much urgency to promote Caglianone so soon.
Scoots McGoots
- Why do you think Bassitt hasn’t signed yet?
Mark P
- The offers probably aren’t there yet, for whatever reason. Maybe he’s not getting anything beyond a one-year guarantee due to his age, or teams are waiting until later in the offseason to bump up their offers if Bassitt is widely viewed as sort of a backup plan rotation option.
Speculatively, maybe he’s even waiting to see if the Jays can step up with a late offer, even if fitting him into the 2026 rotation seems tricky.
Bill
- I know Hazen said he’s not trading Marte – but hasn’t Marte’s trade market changed in the past week? For instance, why not Duran to NYM, Bello, Baty, Sproat to AZ, and Marte back to Boston? That seems a possibility now that NYM acquired Bichette.
Mark P
- As I noted in the Marte post yesterday, Hazen isn’t hanging up the phone if a team emerges with a truly lopsided offer. But barring such a Godfather offer (and Bello/Baty/Sproat isn’t it), Marte’s not going anywhere.
Trading Draft Picks
- Why is it the MLB does not allow you to trade draft picks when all of the other sports do? In the NHL you are also a few years away as a prospect so why doesn’t MLB let you trade draft picks?
Mark P
- I’ve been beating this drum for years. You probably would only rarely see top picks actually traded, but it would happen just enough to make the MLB draft a lot spicier.
The league is always looking for ways to make the MLB draft more of an event, while overlooking the simple answer of traded picks.
Bendix
- On a scale of 1-10 how much do you believe in Marlins youth this upcoming season?
Mark P
- I think Miami is going to be pretty decent. While I did pick them for fourth in the NL East a few posts up, another third-place finish wouldn’t shock me.
- And a winning record is definitely possible.
Rookies
- Are the Phillies taking too big a risk turning center field over to the rookie Crawford when the aging roster has only so many chances left?
Mark P
- Guys like Kemp, Rojas, and Wilson are still around for OF depth purposes, so Marsh could be moved back into center field if Crawford struggles. It is a risk on the Phillies’ part, but they’re high on Crawford, and he’s looked awfully good in the minors
Your Name
- Seen some Cardinals fans hoping for Marcelo Mayer as part of a Brendan Donovan return. Unrealistic, no?
Mark P
- Very
Garr
- Luis Robert to KC? They need to upgrade in CF
Mark P
- Intra-division trade, so that’s one obstacle right there.
The issue with Robert is that the White Sox still want to get a noteworthy return for him, while rival teams are understandably wary about giving him too much for a guy who has struggled for the last two years. And, Robert’s salary would be an issue for a mid-level spender like KC
Guest
- Is Cody Bellinger actually good?
Mark P
- Sure, he’s a very good player. The problem is that Boras is looking for a contract befitting the Dodgers MVP version of Bellinger, and that guy doesn’t appear to be coming back.
OZ
- The passing of Wilbur Wood and a glance at his out-of-this-world stats from 1971-1975 should convince some team to try to develop knuckleballers, especially with the rash of Tommy John injuries affecting practically every organization.
Mark P
- In fairness, Wood was an anomaly even by knuckleballer standards. And while it would be cool to see more knucklers in the modern game, it’s also a very difficult pitch to learn, let alone master.
Buster
- Giants pull a surprise and out of the blue sign Cody B. 6 years at $30. Pipe dream?
Mark P
- He’d be a great boost to a questionable Giants outfield, but it’s unclear if SF is willing to go to those spending lengths (on anyone, let alone Cody)
SouthJerseySteve
- Nick Castellanos (1/$20M) for Tanner Scott (3/$50M). Who says no?
Mark P
- In just a pure salary dump for LA? I don’t think the Dodgers are ready to just give up on Scott entirely, nor are in any need to pare salary
Cutch
- I still want to finish my career as a Pirate. Am I not worthy anymore?
Mark P
- It’s tricky because Cutch is such a legend and so beloved in Pittsburgh. But in terms of what a player can produce in 2026 or how much playing time he should get, it’s tough to argue apart from pure sentiment that McCutchen should be part of a team serious about winning
Blue
- Feels like Padres are in a good spot to try and move Cronenworth with Hoerner/Marte both seeming unlikely to move
Mark P
- Cronenworth’s contract is a huge negative in trade talks. Hoerner is just for one year and Marte is a superstar, so they both have way more trade value.
question
- Correct me if im wrong a no trade clause is where a player can’t get traded unless he agrees?
Mark P
- Correct. Some clauses are for any trade, some players have clauses that allow them to block trades to only a certain number of teams.
- If a player has 10-and-5 rights (10 years of MLB service time, five consecutive years with the same team), they get automatic no-trade protection
Belli Button
- Does Boras really have offers for Bellinger other than the Yankees? It looks like the Yankees aren’t moving. Will Bellinger be one of those February signigns like Alonso and Snell?
Mark P
- I suspect this is exactly what the Yankees are thinking — they already have the best offer on the table for Bellinger, and they aren’t budging.
Trip
- Is the Kim injury a sign that the Braves injury issues will continue?
Mark P
- Falling on ice and hurting your finger is too much of a fluke to assume the Braves are in for another snake-bitten injury year.
Three misfortunes? Sure. Seven misfortunes? There’s an outside chance. But NINE misfortunes?! I’d like to see that!
Atkins
- Bichette and Guerrero should have both been Jays for life. The Jays needed to make that happen earlier in their careers. Also extend Barger
Mark P
- As the sons of wealthy ballplayers, Bichette and Guerrero had the financial comfort to bet on themselves early in their careers, rather than seek out an extension. Also, their play was just inconsistent enough from year to year that it’s understandable why the Jays weren’t totally comfortable breaking the bank for either until extending Vlad last spring.
- It seems very likely that Toronto will be exploring an extension with Barger this spring, if they haven’t already
Bill
- Would the Phillies be interested in Yoshida for Castellanos?
Mark P
- Yoshida doesn’t have any real utility in Philly with Schwarber locked into the DH spot. Yoshida is a part-time left fielder at best.
Guest
- Hoyer said at Cubs Con that they weren’t done yet. Bellinger?
Mark P
- To be fair, it would’ve been pretty unlikely to see Hoyer stand up in front of a crowd of Cubs fans and announce “that’s it! I’m going on vacation!” and then run offstage with an overstuffed suitcase.
Tyler
- As a Reds fan I wouldn’t be on board with this, but I’ve seen multiple fellow Reds fans recommend dealing Brady Singer and Tyler Stephenson for Jarren Duran. Is that something Boston would even consider? Feels very light to me when you consider years of control and Duran’s ceiling.
Mark P
- Boston definitely wants a lot more than that for Duran
Guest
- What offers could Xander Bogaerts expect if he were a free agent today? How much $ for how many years?
Mark P
- Entering his age-33 season, coming off 5.2 fWAR and an exact 100 wRC+ offensive performance over the 2024-25 seasons, mixed reviews on his defense but best served as a second baseman at this point….
I can see a two-year contract based on track record, at maybe something like $18MM total?
- “What would this guy make if he was a free agent now?” is a fantastic way of gauging current value, btw
Oakland
- I see many similarities between the Oakland situation and Washington’s struggle to get back in the game.
Mark P
- The Nats aren’t in any danger of moving, nor is their ballpark (which is very nice, I’ve been there in person) any sort of detriment. Don’t forget, the A’s were a winning team as recently as 2021, so their rebuild is already coming along way better in a shorter timespan than Washington’s, despite numerous more obstacles
Michael
- What makes you think Gore’s such a near-lock to stand pat this winter? Imagine an analytically driven FO like Toboni and co would want to capitalize now/avoid risk of injury? Gore’s already shown multiple times he can put up a big first half. What’s doing that again going to accomplish?
Mark P
- My stance has been that Toboni will take some time to retool the front office and evaluate things before really making a lot of big roster decisions, i.e. “should we reboot the rebuild, or try to build on what we already have?”
If another team steps up with a big enough offer, Gore will indeed be moved this winter. But, given how the Nats are asking for a haul in return, it remains to be seen if any rival clubs will meet that price. Admittedly, the whole situation is hard to access because Toboni is a first-time PBO, so we have no idea about how he’ll operate
Balloon Man Dan
- How close to 100% are the tigers to trading Skubal at the deadline?
Mark P
- Not if the team is winning the Central or contending for a playoff berth
Bernie Brewer
- Andrew Vaughn is a free agent after this season. Do you think the brewers resign him or let him walk?
Mark P
- Probably let him walk. The Brewers aren’t likely to spend a significant amount on the first base position.
Sid the Kid
- With a few hall of fame careers winding down, where does Jr Griffey place on your top 10-15 of all time list?
Mark P
- I wouldn’t have Griffey in my top 10-15, but he’s not far outside that range
- We’re well over two hours now, so I should wrap things up. Thanks so much for all the activity tonight….it was so busy that there’s still a full page of questions and comments I didn’t get to, because of the jam-packed queue. The participation is very much appreciated!
- fyi, if you’re interested in more baseball Q&A, one of the many benefits of our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription is the exclusive weekly live chats. The more limited field means you’re about 10 times more likely to get a question answered, as opposed to battling for space with hundreds of other questions in today’s chat. For more on our memberships, check out this link:
Jo Adell trade scenario! Welcome to 2026, folks!
If I were Perry/Arte my untouchables are Neto and Adell. Being hopeful he can be a key piece in the future.
I’m amazed that Angel fans still think he’s worth something. Learn to take a hint. He stinks. I have this case of rotten eggs to sell ya. Will you give me Jo Adell? Why yes I would.
Last year gave a different impression though. He became a contributor on what was otherwise a poor team. Sometimes players are late bloomers, like Ernie Clement. I have hope for him considering the lines he turned in last year.
I love the Simpsons nine misfortunes reference.
Jo Adell was a Gold Glove finalist in 2024.
… as was Soto. And Rengifo was a ’25 GG finalist. Not all GG finalists are created equal.
Bo to the Mets at that dollar amount was the strangest move of the off-season. They prioritize defense then sign a below average defender at 40+ Million per year? Alonso is better protection to Soto and just as bad a defender
Totally agree. I think it was more reactionary after losing out on Kyle Tucker. Mets ownership really wants to win, hence the unprecedented spending levels.
I think they were pretty sure Tucker was going to sign with them and him going to the Dodgers forced a quick pivot.
But I also think Tucker signing at that kind of AAV is ridiculous… Looking at his stats, he’s not that kind of player.
agree on all fronts. Tucker making $20 mil aav more than Judge is crazy to me. the Mets move felt like a desperation push. it feels like they could now comfortably move vientos and/or Baty for pitching, but they are spending a lot of money to put an overconfidence on undeveloped talent.
INSANE! And the same folks are saying the Sox should trade Duran for the likes of Paredes…
I just seriously don’t understand current day valuations. Its insane. I at least understood when teams paid for past performance, knowing future performance wouldn’t be the same.
Now its like I’m seeing $15-20 mil AAV players getting 40-50mil+ per season because of desperation.
More evidence MLB needs to reduce the total number of teams rather than consider expansion. Too many AAA guys at the MLB level.
As A Jay’s fan I disagree. Bo had the most rbis on the team while hitting 1st for 82 games. When he hit 4th ie after Vlad in 40 games he had 36 rbis. He hit best in high leverage. The issue is putting a guy with an erratic arm at 3rd when he’s suited for 2B.
Bo Bichette, as a guy that wanted him, is a 8 year / 200 mil player.
Not a dime more. And if you can find me a comparable contract to believe otherwise, I’m happy to change my mind.
8/200 is a huge overpay and he got way more in terms of AAV.
Is it down to NYY vs NYM for Bellinger?
There are quite a few Cub fans that would be just fine if Hoyer said he was going on vacation and ran off pulling a suitcase.
Vaughn has 2 years left, was in AAA just long enough that he didnt reach 5 years service time.
Open question for anyone:
If the MLBPA won’t ever agree to a salary cap, then why is a lockout imminent? What other factors are in play that can’t be worked out?
Manfred wants a better parking spot.
LOL. Appreciate the levity.
Because locking players out long enough could get them to cave.
I stand by what I said tho… From what I’m getting from everyone in the know is that 2 things are true:
1) The lockout is imminent
2) The players union will NEVER agree to a salary cap.
I don’t take that never lightly. Its the owners who have more stake in the game, thus the owners that are more likely to cave.
Why not simply increase the luxury tax thresholds in terms of both value AND percentage penalty. And of course, give teams like the Dodgers and Mets a fair timeframe to get within the new confines or just eat the extra costs for a few years.
There are a lot more issues than a salary cap. Both sides want changes, and neither side is going to give in easily. Once the owners feel they’re at an impasse, they’ll lock the players out. Once reality hits though, and both sides start to understand how much money they’ll lose, they’ll agree on something. We might have a shortened ST, and a season that goes later in the year, but we will have a baseball season, but again without a salary cap.
The Owners will never open there books to the MLBPA.
Therefore there will never be a salary cap as there is in the other professional leagues.
Every year just about every team goes up in value Some more than others. Dependent on their market size and yearly revenue among other things.
Every year a player gets a higher per year average salary eclipsing one the year before..
MLB players get treated very very well. Fly private 1st Class. Stay in the best hotels. They get several hundred dollars per day for meals The best Doctors. A great pension besides the handsome salaries .they get..
There’s only 30 MLB franchises in the World. And quite a few Municipalities would love to have one..
To be fair, I think the salary floor is a bigger problem than the salary cap. And that’s coming as a Red Sox fan, who’s fans complain all day long about the Dodgers and the Mets.
Teams should be forced to not be incentivized to lose. I think increase the luxury tax thresholds as well as the penalties for exceeding it and ALSO implement an absolute $150M floor. If you can’t meet that floor, sell the team, move, or shut it down.
Its ridiculous when you have the Mets spending $600 mil and the Rays spending 60 mil. (exaggerations, yes I know, but you get the point.)
This is basically my exact question. What is the compromise outside of the salary cap. Its very clear at this point it would be VERY hard to move towards a cap and if they did it would have to be a soft cap, which isn’t that much different than what we have now.
I agree. Agree to the other terms like shortening Spring Training if that’s an issue and just move up both the luxury tax threshold AND the penalties for exceeding.
But if we know the outcome, it should not be imminent.
Any form of a cap will ne viewed by the players as an attempt to limit salaries. The players may make some concessions, but any sort of cap is the hill they’ll die on.
I wasn’t advocating for a shorter ST. My point was that it may be necessary, as it was a few years ago, to have a full season with a lockout. ST is as long as it is for the pitchers. They need that time. It is too long for the position players, and it always has been. SPs in early ST are on a regular rotation timeline to fit with their starts at the beginning of the regular season.
Totally agree but that’s not the question.
If salary is known to be an impasse but owners can’t just let their investment die for years at a time, what OTHER concessions could the players or organizations make.
My personal idea is treating the professional market the way we treat some amateur markets. If you overspend (AAV) this year, it caps your aav spending capacity next year. It makes sure the Dodgers can’t go over the top back to back years while also making sure that players earning potential isn’t capped. It also makes teams think about who is available next year before spending this year.
I think the players even say no to a soft cap.
I agree the players want no type of cap at all.
My opinion of what will happen is based on what’s happened in the past. Both sides have too much to lose, so they’ll nibble around the edges, make some concessions, but no major ones, and settle on an agreement that doesn’t solve the core problem of inequity. This only to be repeated at the next CBA negotiations.
The inequities aren’t big enough for a majority of owners to revolt and take a hard line that might cost a whole season forcing real changes. There’s too many parties making a lot of money that the current system will continue with only minimal changes.
I hate to say I agree with you but we probably lose 2027. That stinks.
Are we strong enough to tackle the Seattle Mariners?
Why is Spencer Arrighetti being written off all the time?
Is a Red Sox Astros blockbuster coming up?
Just 3 of my questions
I think the Red Sox and the Astros could match up in a trade but I’m not sure it’s going to happen right away. Parades could be a Red Sox but not on a one for one basis with Duran. Duran has more value and if I’m Breslow I’d let spring training start now to address the infield deficiency. See how Mayer looks, see how Campbell looks, see how there other potential options look before addressing the need. There is bound to be injuries in the rotation and if Crawford and Sandoval look strong in spring training they became valuable trade commodities for a team that might lose a pitcher. If a fair trade can be worked for Parades can be worked out now so be it but if not wait. The Red Sox have the most valuable commodity in MLB starting pitching depth.
By the way, it’s Paredes not Parades.
Red Sox fans overvalue Duran, same as Astros fans overvalue Paredes. I believe it’s multiple pieces coming from both sides, and I don’t think you’ve been following social media.
Also, who’s team are you a fan of?
I’m a fan of neither team and Duran definitely has more value than Paredes. That isn’t a knock on Paredes either. He is a damn good ball player but present day if both guys were on the market teams would offer more for Duran.
I was replying to Bruin1012. But okay for your opinion.
It’s an open forum meant to discuss baseball. Thank you for your time.
Red Sox fan doesn’t change the fact that Duran is more valuable than Paredes. I really don’t care what social media says. Duran has more value than Paredes if nothing more than for the extra year of control. Breslow knows this I’m not sure what Houston would have to add to make a Duran swap work but it wouldn’t be straight swap. If Houston insisted on that I’m sure Breslow will wait he doesn’t have to do anything at least until the deadline. The Red Sox will score runs and their starting pitching is among the best in baseball and they have stout back of the bullpen, they can wait.
I know a Paredes is more valuable than Duran. Either way, talks have intensified, also, your divison is tough.
Finally dude! A Sox fan with my level of common sense.
I really appreciate it. That’s exactly my thought process. If the Astros want Duran, its going to take Paredes AND a top prospect or something else of high value. Swapping a 20 hr / 30 sb / 40 2B guy for a guy with 20 hr and nothing else is just stupid talk.
The Sox would be better off with Rafaela/Romy/Hamilton at 2B or Mayer at 3B and keeping Duran. If they are trading Duran, it has to be for SOMEONE with higher than a 2.5 WAR.
Duran for Paredes, Ullola, Baez, and Okert. What’s a Red Sox fan take on this trade? Or are there specific names you like from Houston?
Also, you said, ” A Sox fan with my level of common sense.” Does that mean Sox fans don’t have common sense, or do you mean Astros fan, as in me?
Nats should asked for an elite prospect and 2 relievers for Gore
It’s unclear to me how a versatile nearly 3 WAR/season two-time AS middle infielder that plays great defense and has some pop and an AAV of just $11M (Jake Cronenworth) has a salary that Mark P. knows is “a huge negative in trade talks”. He regularly is top 10 in WAR among eligible second-basemen, last year finishing 7th in fWAR, ahead of Albies, Torres, Donovan, Semien, McClain, Lowe, Edwards, etc…
Seems like a very reasonable contract by today’s MLB standards.
Mark P also said Bogaerts would only get a 2 year/18 million dollar deal if he were a free agent right now too though so I wouldn’t read too much into it.
I agree with Mark. It isn’t the AAV it’s the length of the deal, 5 more years. He had a fine 2025, but that was somewhat of a bounce back after 2 so-so seasons, when he had a 0.8, and a 1.9 bWAR. His bWAR over the last 3 seasons is 2.0.
His deal was a bit backloaded. Entering his age 32 season, he’s owed over $61.4M. If he were a FA this year I don’t think he gets 5/$61.4M. He might get that $11M AAV, but I think it would be 3 years max. Teams would want to avoid paying him over $24.5M for his age 35 and 36 seasons.
the 2 down years are an aberration in that the Pads were experimenting (wasting his skills) with him at 1B where his value doesn’t hold. As a versatile middle IF he’s getting paid about what some established utility guys are getting.
I should have added that his WAR last year was achieved while missing a significant amount of time with a broken rib.
As a Padres fan I hope they don’t trade him because replacement cost would likely be higher.
Playing 1B shouldn’t have affected his hitting, yet he had an 89, and a 99 OPS+ those 2 years. Even with the fine 2025 season, he really hasn’t been exceptional since 2021-2022. Those 2 years account for 56% of his bWAR for his 6 year career. The first 3 years 364 games account for 67%. the 417 games since account for 33% of his career bWAR.
“…he’s getting paid about what some established utility guys are getting.”
You missed my point. Yes, I agree, per year for the next couple of seasons, but not for 5 more years. No one is paying him that much for that long. The AAV should shrink the longer the deal.
It shouldn’t but it did apparently as he adjusted his swing (big uppercut) in an attempt to get more HRs, given 1b typically occupied by a power bat He won’t admit that the team asked him to though, but there is local speculation to that.
I believe you since I know you follow the Padres much more closely than I do. But even with that being the case, if I were a GM, I’d be concerned whether 2025 was sustainable. And even if I did, I still wouldn’t want to be paying him what he’s owed for 5 more years based on what he did this past season.
Even in his down years he ranked 10th in WAR among 1bmen. Opinions about Cronenworth certainly vary, and my main point here is that the Mark P seems to know that his contract is a huge negative in trade talks. How can he be so certain? That would be amazing insider knowledge if true. But I think it’s perhaps more likely that he’s not being shopped because the team likes him a lot.
Cronenworth is a solid ballplayer, which is where I think the disconnect is as to his trade value. I can see why Padres’ fans like him. He’d be an asset for most teams next season. But teams are looking 5 years ahead.
It doesn’t take insider information to know his contract is a negative. I can see that. It isn’t that other teams wouldn’t want him, but it’s obvious that other teams don’t want the contract that comes with him.
Like I said, opinions vary. But a writer at mlbtr doesnt know the communications that are involved between GMs on potential trades, any more than we do, just simply because they don’t. And again, that’s my point.
And my point was no one needs to be privy to any communications between teams to know that Cronenworth’s contract is a huge negative. That his contract is a big negative should be obvious to anyone with a modicum of understanding of how player’s contracts are evaluated. I’ve said it many times already, no GM is going to want to take on Cronenworth, despite his solid play, with the 5 more years and the money he’s owed.
Going back on the Singer comment, I agree with Mark. The reason I’m posting this comment is because I saw a trade while scrolling BTV suggesting Brice Matthews for Brady Singer.
Singer has higher trade value than Matthews by the way. I may get some ire from those of you who love BTV and use it to make all your trades, it’s not always accurate. There’s a lot of missing aspects to making a trade than trade value too. It’s how a team values a player, and what the other team values that player. Now, that was on BTV, so it would be trade value correlated, but for those of you that make your trades based off of it, you probably need to think more about it.
I think BTV is accurate. It’s just that some trades that might have equal value aren’t realistic trades. Some fans will use the superstar being equal in value to the rookie ballplayer example which is apples and oranges. The 2 would never even be considered as a possible trade.
BTV is the raw value and is useful for 2 players that might actually be considered as tradeable for each other. Guys like Aaron Judge actually have a low trade value due to the salary, and that the Yanks have gotten most of the best years of his career. He’s still extremely productive, but his value continues to decline due to the fewer years of greatness with the less productive at the end that come with his deal.
What I’m saying is that you can’t rely on BTV to make your trades. You can look at it, but using it to make your trades without anything else and calling it a good trade because the value matches isn’t good.
That was my point as well. They evaluate based on salary and service time as well as performance, which I believe to be accurate. A guy with a high performance ranking, but devalued due to a hefty contract, isn’t an appropriate piece in a trade for a guy whose value is based on him being cheap with a lot of team control even though their BTV values are similar.
Normally, it’s accurate enough. Does it account for potential? , I wouldn’t use BTV for prospects because it is based on the Rule 5, 40-man, downgrades, and more. Again, there are more aspects to making a trade to BTV. I think we agree for the most part, but BTV should not be the only thing you use to make trades.
I assume potential is part of it. Prospect rankings and scouting reports would have to part of the analysis for a team trading a veteran at the deadline for prospects. We do agree. Just because 2 guys have the same BTV value doesn’t make it a viable trade.
I would also assume lower level prospects or DSL guys have depressed value because they are so far away. For some examples, I looked at BTV trade boards to look at trades. Not all trades are bad, but there are a good number of them that are.
Ummm trades
1. Pablo Lopez for Mark Vientos
2. Teoscar Hernandez and Roki Sasaki for Issac Paredes and Jake Meyers
3. Ramon Laurenano, Jake Croneworth, Jason Adam, and Mason Miller for Matt Shaw, WIll Sanders, Kevin Alcantara, and Jordan Wicks
4. Michael McGreevy and Brendan Donovan for Bryce Eldridge
6. Kevin Alvarez and Bryce Mayer for Lars Nootbaar and Jimmy Crooks
7. Brady Singer for Brice Matthews
I’m not sure about whether a trade is good or not but I am sure these trades are bad for one side or another.